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At least 343 records · Page 19

Demonstration of Wide Area Radiological Decontamination and Mitigation Technologies for Building Structures and Vehicles - 16508

Researchers at the U.S. Environmental Protection Agency in collaboration with the Department of Homeland Security conducted the 'Wide-Area Urban Radiological Contaminant, Mitigation, and Clean-Up Technology Demonstration' in Columbus, Ohio on June 22-25, 2015. EPA's National Homeland Security Research Center (NHSRC) demonstrated five wide-area radiological decontamination technologies (including strippable coatings, gels, and chemical foam technologies) on an urban building. Decontamination technologies were applied to remove the contaminants from the building's surfaces by physical, chemical, or other methods, which in practice could reduce radiation exposure level. In addition, NHSRC teamed with the Department of Homeland Security (DHS) to demonstrate several radiological contaminant mitigation technologies including building and vehicle wash technologies, as well as several approaches to contain wash water and radioactive particles. 'Radiological contaminant mitigation' technologies are measures taken to reduce adverse impacts of radiological contamination on people and the environment, and facilitate such purposes as restoration of first responder services and critical infrastructure. Radiological contaminant mitigation technologies are designed for containing and removing radiological contamination on the surface in the first hours or days following a radiological event (early phase response). Such technologies include 'radiological particle containment', which is design to prevent the spread of particles which might result from vehicle or foot traffic. Radiological particle containment technologies are applicable for early phase response to contain the radionuclides and to reduce radiation dose to responders and the public. Mitigation also includes 'gross decontamination' technologies, which perform a type of decontamination that is conducted with the goal of reducing contamination levels. This reduction may not meet final cleanup levels, but may be useful to mitigate some public hazard or contain contamination. The purpose of the demonstrations was to educate potential end-users and stakeholders of this technology about a 'Toolbox of Options' for radiological decontamination, as well as radiological contaminant mitigation. Both demonstrations were conducted using a 75-year old brick building and the surrounding area (including parking lots) in Columbus, OH. No radioactive contaminants were applied during either demonstration, as the objective was to duplicate and implement realistic operational conditions for these technologies. Surrogate contaminants such as particle tracers were used in several demonstrations. The decontamination technologies were used in a scaled-up setting with application to the building. Contaminant mitigation technologies were demonstrated on the building as well as on vehicles. Example technology application techniques/accessories included an articulating boom lift, repelling boatswain chair, stand-alone surface material structures, high-volume foam applicators, fire truck foam applicator, a vehicle wash tent for vehicles, particle tracers to simulate radiological contaminants, and high- and low-technology liquid containment approaches. Results and stakeholder observations from the demonstration are now publically in a report entitled 'Technical Report for the Demonstration of Radiological Decontamination and Mitigation Technologies for Building Structures and Vehicles' available at http://www.epa.gov/hsresearch Example information that was obtained included decontamination rate, contaminant mitigation and containment capacity, user friendliness of each technology, the required utilities (electric, water, etc.) for each technology, skill of worker required, and the cost. The condition (color, texture, integrity, etc.) of each building material present on the structure along with all structural components such as gutters, windows, doors, etc. were carefully examined and documented. All demonstrations were open to individuals, organizations, and local, state, federal, tribal, and international governments who may be involved with implementing or planning radiological incident response. (authors)

12 MANAGEMENT OF RADIOACTIVE AND NON-RADIOACTIVE W↗

On the subject of large-scale pool fires and turbulent boundary layer interactions

The role to which a realistic inflow turbulent boundary layer (TBL) influences transient and mean large-scale pool fire quantities of interest (QoIs) is numerically investigated. High-fidelity, low-Mach large-eddy simulations that activate low-dissipation, unstructured numerics are conducted using an unsteady flamelet combustion modeling approach with mutiphysics coupling to soot and participating media radiation transport. Three inlet profile configurations are exercised for a large-scale, high-aspect rectangular pool that is oriented perpendicular to the flow direction: a time-varying, TBL inflow profile obtained from a periodic precursor simulation, the time-mean of the transient TBL, and a steady power-law inflow profile that replicates the mean TBL crosswind velocity of 10.0 m/s at a vertical height of 10 m. Results include both qualitative transient flame evolution and quantitative flame shape with ground-level temperature and convective/radiative heat flux profiles. While transient fire events, which are driven by burst-sweep TBL coupling, such as blow-off and reattachment are vastly different in the TBL case (contributing to increased root mean square QoI fluctuation prediction and disparate flame lengths), mean surface QoI magnitudes are similar. Quadrant analysis demonstrates that the TBL configuration modifies burst-sweep phenomena at windward pool locations, while leeward recovery is found. In conclusion, positive fluctuations of convective heat flux correlate with fast moving fluid away from the pool surface due to intermittent combustion events.

97 MATHEMATICS AND COMPUTING↗

Temporal persistence of postfire flood hazards under present and future climate conditions in southern Arizona, USA

Changes to soil hydraulic properties that reduce infiltration capacity following fire can increase flash flood risks. These risks are exacerbated by rainfall intensification associated with a warming climate. However, the potential effects of climate-change-driven rainfall intensification on postfire floods remain largely unexplored. Using rainfall and runoff observations from a 49.4 km 2 watershed in southern Arizona, USA, and a hydrologic model (KINEROS2), we examined the temporal evolution following a historic fire of three crucial hydrologic parameters: soil saturated hydraulic conductivity (K sp ), net capillary drive (G p ), and hydraulic roughness (n c ). We explored how the effect of fire on these parameters may influence peak flow under future climate scenarios derived from CMIP6, specifically the medium emissions scenario (SSP2-4.5) and high emissions scenario (SSP5-8.5). Results demonstrate an increase in K sp from 11 mm h −1 in the first postfire year to 60 mm h −1 in postfire year 3. G p similarly increased from 19 mm in the first postfire year to 30 mm in the third, while nc was relatively constant. The highest simulated Q p occurred in the first postfire year. Under the SSP2-4.5 scenario, the likelihood of a 100-year flood is projected to be twice as large by the middle of the century relative to its historical magnitude. Simulations further indicate that the maximum expected discharge associated with a postfire flood, as derived from historical data, could be triggered by a 10-year rainstorm under the SSP5-8.5 scenario by the late century. Simulations also demonstrate that rainfall intensification will lead to greater persistence of elevated flood hazards following fire by the late century under both the SSP2-4.5 and the SSP5-8.5 scenarios.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

Vulnerability of existing and planned coal-fired power plants in Developing Asia to changes in climate and water resources

Coal power generation dominates electricity supply in Developing Asia, and more than 400 gigawatts (GW) of new coal-fired capacity is planned for operation by 2030. Past studies on thermal electricity-water nexus have not accounted for this new capacity, and use coarse spatial and temporal resolutions in the assessment of long-term power system reliability. Here, high-resolution hydro-climatic simulations and asset-level power plant water use models are integrated to quantify water constraints on coal-fired power plants in Developing Asia, for different scenarios of future climate change, cooling system choice, and capacity expansion. Future climate change and capacity expansion decrease the annual usable capacity factor (UF) of coal power generation in Mongolia, Southeast Asia, and parts of India and China. The negative impacts are lessened by widening the geographic areas of aggregation. Under near-term mitigation scenarios with high penetrations of CO 2 capture technology, the regional average water withdrawal intensity of coal power generation is 50–80% higher than current conditions. With careful siting, the increased water withdrawal intensity does not necessarily constrain future electricity production on annual or monthly time scales, but decreases system reliability by increasing the probability of low UF at daily time scale. Our findings highlight the unaccounted-for-risk in Developing Asia's long-term power plan featuring coal power generation. Regional capacity expansion should consider the reliability of future thermal power assets under long-term hydroclimate change using high-resolution models and multiple scenarios.

01 COAL, LIGNITE, AND PEAT↗

An experimental and kinetic modeling study of the pyrolysis of isoprene, a significant biogenic hydrocarbon in naturally occurring vegetation fires

Isoprene dominates the carbon flux emitted by vegetation and constitutes 40% of non-methane biogenic emissions worldwide. Despite pyrolysis experiments at temperatures above 1000 K showing a link between isoprene combustion and aromatic species formation, comprehensive mechanistic research on isoprene is scarce in the literature. Here, in this work, we carry out an experimental and theoretical study to build, for the first time, a chemical kinetic model describing isoprene pyrolysis. The formation of polycyclic aromatic hydrocarbon (PAH) precursor species, often observed in vegetation fire plumes, is partially explained by isoprene pyrolysis experiments and theoretical modeling. Molecular dynamics (MD) simulations unveil reaction pathways from allylic isoprenyl radicals to allene and cyclopentadiene (CPD) intermediates, two relevant species detected in the experiments. Rate constants for these identified pathways are calculated using variational transition state theory to update the kinetic model, which is validated against single-pulse shock tube (SPST), and jet-stirred reactor (JSR) experimental data in the temperature range of 850–1690 K. The kinetic model presents satisfactory agreement with the SPST experimental data, and a reaction pathway analysis shows that association of propargyl radicals results in benzene formation. The JSR pathway analysis also identifies the prominent reactions for CPD, benzene, styrene, and toluene formation. Our model does not reproduce the CPD experimental profiles, indicating that additional studies are necessary. Overall, our findings advance the understanding of isoprene pyrolysis and its related atmospheric pollutants in naturally occurring vegetation fires where smoldering and oxygen-deficient combustion processes are present.

37 INORGANIC, ORGANIC, PHYSICAL, AND ANALYTICAL CH↗

Post-fire time series of sensor and geochemistry sample data from surface water, groundwater, precipitation, soil, and vegetation across Oak Creek watershed, Washington

This dataset supports a broader study examining wildfire impacts on hydrologic connectivity across 5 sites within the Oak Creek watershed and the resulting biogeochemical impacts. Stream sites were selected using the Advanced Terrestrial Simulator (ATS) hydrologic model to identify locations with varying groundwater contributions and hydrologic responses across different burn severity scenarios. The Retreat Fire burned from July 23 to August 2 in 2024, affecting the five study sites at varying burn severities. Each site is equipped with YSI EXO2 sondes logging sub-hourly throughout the year, and grab samples are collected approximately every six weeks. YSI sondes are used to measure temporally resolved proxies for groundwater inputs (specific conductivity) and organic matter (fluorescent dissolved organic matter; fDOM) along with basic water quality and depth. Grab samples of surface water, groundwater, and precipitation are analyzed for water stable isotopes and conductivity to understand endmembers for hydrologic mixing Grab samples of surface water, groundwater, soil water, and litter/vegetation/soil leachates are analyzed for organic matter composition measured by Fourier-Transform Ion Cyclotron Resonance Mass Spectrometry (FTICR-MS) to understand organic matter dynamics. Game camera photos are provided in a separate data package available at https://data.ess-dive.lbl.gov/datasets/doi:10.15485/3018598. Future versions of this dataset will include time series data from YSI EXO2 sondes (fDOM, dissolved oxygen, temperature, depth, specific conductance, turbidity, pH), BaroTROLL sensors (air temperature and barometric pressure), rain gauges (precipitation), and data from the soil and vegetation samples. Because this study is ongoing, this data package will be updated regularly to include newly collected data and the additional data types. For details on how to navigate data packages generated by this project, see https://data.ess-dive.lbl.gov/portals/PNNLRiverCorridorSFA/About. In addition to a readme, this data package also includes a file-level metadata (FLMD) file that describes each file and a data dictionary (DD) that describes all column/row headers and variable definitions. This dataset is comprised of (1) a folder of field photos; (2) a folder of surface water sample data; (3) a folder of raw Fourier transform ion cyclotron resonance mass spectrometry (FTICR-MS) data; (4) a data checks report; (5) file-level metadata; (6) data dictionary; (7) field metadata; (8) readme; (9) international generic sample number (IGSN) mapping file; and (10) field protocols. The sample data subfolder contains (1) dissolved organic carbon (DOC, measured as non-purgeable organic carbon, NPOC) data and averages; (2) total dissolved nitrogen data and averages; (3) stable water isotopes and averages; (4) methods codes; (5) FTICR-MS methods; and (15) a subfolder of 9.4 Tesla (9.4T) FTICR-MS data. This folder contains the processed data and three subfolders, one containing the .xml files, one containing the water CoreMS output files, and the other containing instructions and scripts for processing the files in CoreMS (https://github.com/EMSL-Computing/CoreMS). All files are .csv, .pdf, .R, .xml, .d, .html, .Rmd, .py, .cal, .json, .jpg, .jpeg, .png, .mov, or .mp4.

Biogeochemistry↗

Contrasting Stratospheric Smoke Mass and Lifetime From 2017 Canadian and 2019/2020 Australian Megafires: Global Simulations and Satellite Observations

Stratospheric injections of carbonaceous aerosols and combustion gases by extreme wildfires have become increasingly common. Recent “megafires,” particularly large and intense fires, delivered particulate burdens to the lower stratosphere comparable to those of moderate volcanic eruptions. The 2017 Canadian megafire generated four large Pyrocumulonimbi (pyroCbs), injecting up to ≈0.3 Tg of smoke in the lower stratosphere. Even more extreme, the 2019/2020 Australian event produced a pyroCb activity resulting in stratospheric smoke intrusions of ≈1 Tg. To understand their contrasting behavior, we present global climate simulations of the atmospheric response to these events, applying smoke burdens informed by remote observations. Model outcomes, compared to satellite data of smoke transport, reproduce reasonably well the initial plume rise, at 0.2–0.3 km/day, attaining heights of ≈20 km in Canada and above 30 km in Australia. Global dispersal of the plume occurs within about 3 weeks in both cases, consistent with observations. Smoke removal timescales, ≈5 months for the Canadian megafire, agree with remote measurements. During the Australian megafire, observations indicate stratospheric injections three times as large, and models predict comparatively longer smoke lifetimes, ≈16 months. After the latter event, atmospheric optical depths and radiative cooling achieved values close to those measured following the Pinatubo eruption. Sensitivity tests of model assumptions indicate, in accord with prior studies, that smoke burden, injection heights, and black carbon content can determine plume evolution and possible climate impacts. An empirical relation between peak heights of stratospheric plumes and lifetimes is derived that can help assess megafire impacts on the stratosphere, climate and the Earth system

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

Impacts of air pollutants from fire and non-fire emissions on the regional air quality in Southeast Asia

Abstract. Severe haze events in Southeast Asia caused by particulate pollution have become more intense and frequent in recent years. Widespread biomass burning occurrences and particulate pollutants from human activities other than biomass burning play important roles in degrading air quality in Southeast Asia. In this study, numerical simulations have been conducted using the Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF) model coupled with a chemistry component (WRF-Chem) to quantitatively examine the contributions of aerosols emitted from fire (i.e., biomass burning) versus non-fire (including fossil fuel combustion, and road dust, etc.) sources to the degradation of air quality and visibility over Southeast Asia. These simulations cover a time period from 2002 to 2008 and are driven by emissions from (a) fossil fuel burning only, (b) biomass burning only, and (c) both fossil fuel and biomass burning. The model results reveal that 39 % of observed low-visibility days (LVDs) can be explained by either fossil fuel burning or biomass burning emissions alone, a further 20 % by fossil fuel burning alone, a further 8 % by biomass burning alone, and a further 5 % by a combination of fossil fuel burning and biomass burning. Analysis of an 24 h PM 2.5 air quality index (AQI) indicates that the case with coexisting fire and non-fire PM 2.5 can substantially increase the chance of AQI being in the moderate or unhealthy pollution level from 23 to 34 %. The premature mortality in major Southeast Asian cities due to degradation of air quality by particulate pollutants is estimated to increase from ∼ 4110 per year in 2002 to ∼ 6540 per year in 2008. In addition, we demonstrate the importance of certain missing non-fire anthropogenic aerosol sources including anthropogenic fugitive and industrial dusts in causing urban air quality degradation. An experiment of using machine learning algorithms to forecast the occurrence of haze events in Singapore is also explored in this study. All of these results suggest that besides minimizing biomass burning activities, an effective air pollution mitigation policy for Southeast Asia needs to consider controlling emissions from non-fire anthropogenic sources.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

Scoping Thermal Response Calculations of RNS Waste During Transport to and Disposal at the WIPP

Sandia National Laboratories (SNL) was contracted by the United States Department of Energy Environmental Management (DOE-EM), Los Alamos Field Office to perform mechanical and thermal scoping calculations as part of a study seeking to understand the ignitability risk of the Remediated Nitrate Salts (RNS) waste drums during transportation from the Waste Control Specialists (WCS) facility to Waste Isolation Pilot Plant (WIPP) and permanent disposal of the waste at WIPP. The scoping thermal simulations described in this report pertain to thermal calculations performed with a packaging system consisting of one Standard Waste Box (SWB) loaded with drums placed inside a Standard Large Box 2 (SLB2). During transportation, the SLB2 is inside Transuranic Package Transporter Model III (TRUPACT-III), which provides the third layer of the packaging. Once at the WIPP, it is assumed the SLB2 is extracted from the TRUPACT-III and maintained above ground, and then subsequently placed underground for permanent disposal. In these proposed configurations, the space between the SLB2 and the SWB is always filled by a layer of insulation consisting of air-filled glass microbubbles except for the bottom which rests directly on the SLB2. The thermal scoping calculations described in this report specifically address whether the introduction of external heat inputs, combined with the contributions from the internally generated radiolytic decay heat and chemical reactions, lead to an unstable thermal state during the time of its movement and placement in the permanent disposal location. The external heat inputs are of two forms: 1) ambient thermal irradiation (e.g., solar and ambient storage/disposal temperatures) and 2) accident-induced fire. Three scoping calculation scenarios were derived as representative, conservative scenarios: 1A) TRUPACT-III transient transportation, 1B) SLB2 48-hour outdoor storage with solar radiation, and 2) fully-engulfing fire during SLB2 handling or emplacement following a steady-state analysis in a 38 °C environment. All the simulated scenarios are conservative relative to the operational conditions expected for handling the waste package during transportation and placement in the WIPP underground disposal unit. The predictions obtained from simulating the three exposure scenarios revealed that adding the SLB2 and the air-filled glass microbubbles to the transport and storage/disposal configurations provides additional thermal protection of the drums beyond what the SWB provides alone, both during long-term above ground insolation and underground during a fire accident. Under the current transportation/storage/disposal concepts, the degree of protection provided by the packaging concept is sufficient to prevent the waste from being ignitable. The simulation results demonstrate that there is adequate margin to safely transport and place the RNS waste from WCS to the WIPP under the current operational concept.

12 MANAGEMENT OF RADIOACTIVE AND NON-RADIOACTIVE W↗

Dissipative dark matter on FIRE – I. Structural and kinematic properties of dwarf galaxies

We present the first set of cosmological baryonic zoom-in simulations of galaxies including dissipative self-interacting dark matter (dSIDM). These simulations utilize the Feedback In Realistic Environments galaxy formation physics, but allow the dark matter to have dissipative self-interactions analogous to standard model forces, parametrized by the self-interaction cross-section per unit mass, (σ/m), and the dimensionless degree of dissipation, 0 < f diss < 1. We survey this parameter space, including constant and velocity-dependent cross-sections, and focus on structural and kinematic properties of dwarf galaxies with $M_{\rm halo} \sim 10^{10-11}{\, \rm M_\odot }$ and $M_{\ast } \sim 10^{5-8}{\, \rm M_\odot }$. Central density profiles (parametrized as ρ ∝ rα) of simulated dwarfs become cuspy when $(\sigma /m)_{\rm eff} \gtrsim 0.1\, {\rm cm^{2}\, g^{-1}}$ (and f diss = 0.5 as fiducial). The power-law slopes asymptote to α ≈ -1.5 in low-mass dwarfs independent of cross-section, which arises from a dark matter ‘cooling flow’. Through comparisons with dark matter only simulations, we find the profile in this regime is insensitive to the inclusion of baryons. However, when $(\sigma /m)_{\rm eff} \ll 0.1\, {\rm cm^{2}\, g^{-1}}$, baryonic effects can produce cored density profiles comparable to non-dissipative cold dark matter (CDM) runs but at smaller radii. Simulated galaxies with $(\sigma /m) \gtrsim 10\, {\rm cm^{2}\, g^{-1}}$ and the fiducial fdiss develop significant coherent rotation of dark matter, accompanied by halo deformation, but this is unlike the well-defined thin ‘dark discs’ often attributed to baryon-like dSIDM. The density profiles in this high cross-section model exhibit lower normalizations given the onset of halo deformation. For our surveyed dSIDM parameters, halo masses and galaxy stellar masses do not show appreciable difference from CDM, but dark matter kinematics and halo concentrations/shapes can differ.

79 ASTRONOMY AND ASTROPHYSICS↗

Risk Assessment and Ventilation Modeling for Hydrogen Release in Vehicle Repair Garages

The availability of repair garage infrastructure for hydrogen fuel cell vehicles is becoming increasingly important for future industry growth. Ventilation requirements for hydrogen fuel cell vehicles can affect both retrofitted and purpose-built repair garages and the costs associated with these requirements can be significant. A hazard and operability study (HAZOP) was performed to identify key risk-significant scenarios related to hydrogen vehicles in a repair garage. Detailed simulations and modeling were performed using appropriate computational tools to estimate the location, behavior, and severity of hydrogen release based on key HAZOP scenarios. This work compares current fire code requirements to an alternate ventilation strategy to further reduce potentially hazardous conditions. Overall, the amount of flammable mass of hydrogen at any one time in the simulation is low compared to the total mass of hydrogen released, due to the low flow rate of a low pressure release. It is shown that position, direction, and velocity of ventilation have a significant impact on the amount of instantaneous flammable mass in the domain.

33 ADVANCED PROPULSION SYSTEMS↗

Impact of Wildfires on Solar Resource Availability in California in a Changing Climate

Wildfires can emit large amounts of atmospheric particulate matters and influence not only air quality but also availability of photovoltaic (PV) generation due to scattering and absorption of solar radiation. Under anthropogenic changing climate, wildfire activity is projected to increase over western North America due to drier and warmer climate, implying increasing impact on solar resource and larger uncertainty in solar generation especially in regions with faster PV penetration. This study focuses on quantifying the impact of wildfires on aerosol optical depth (AOD) and thus solar resource over California using National Solar Radiation Database (NSRDB), developed by the National Renewable Energy Laboratory (NREL). This assessment includes historical analysis and estimation of solar resource under wildfire scenarios (2020 wildfire and an enhanced wildfire scenario based on 2020 wildfires). Historical analysis for the period of July-October 2019/2020 (low/high fire activity period) shows that the averaged global horizontal irradiance (GHI) and direct normal irradiance (DNI) are reduced by about 30 and 90 W m-2 (5.6 and 15.3%), respectively, during high fire activity period. To create AOD dataset for enhanced fire scenario, 165% increase in burn area (in around 2050) is selected based on comprehensive literature review, which is further applied to the Fire INventory from NCAR (FINN) fire emission. WRF-Chem model with the enhanced FINN emissions is used to simulate and represent a preserving spatial distribution of burned areas and wildfire-emitted aerosols. Our initial analysis suggests that the"enhanced 2020 wildfire" AOD can increase by a factor of 1.3 - 2, which can significantly reduce solar irradiance and increase uncertainty in generation and reliability of power system in extreme wildfire events under a high solar penetration scenario. Overall, this study provides an estimate of the impacts of wildfires on solar resource to make informed decisions on reserve planning, generation scheduling, and reliability investments.

aerosol optical depth↗

Quantifying and Optimizing the Energy Benefits of Mass Timber Construction

The International Mass Timber Alliance (IMTA) is a global organization of industry leaders, engineers, scientists, and associations dedicated to advancing mass timber construction. Its mission is to generate and disseminate scientific data supporting the development of standardized construction and energy efficient practices that promote the adoption of mass timber worldwide. IMTA collaborated with Oak Ridge National Laboratory (ORNL) to leverage ORNL’s expertise in building envelope modeling and testing to evaluate how mass timber construction can reduce peak heating and cooling demand, lower overall energy use, and improve resilience during power outages. A previous study of 80 mass timber buildings in Finland found measured energy use up to 50% lower than predicted by simulation. This project aimed to validate and extend those findings for U.S. buildings through analytical modeling, laboratory testing, and full-scale building evaluations. The research focused on the thermal performance of low-embodied-energy wall assemblies, such as cross-laminated timber (CLT) panels and log walls, with particular attention to the effects of thermal inertia on indoor comfort and energy performance. While mass timber’s structural and fire-resistance properties are well documented, its whole-building thermal behavior has received limited attention. Field data, simulation results, and resilience testing from this study will inform future modeling practices, design guidelines, and construction practices by quantifying the unique thermal and demand-flexibility benefits of mass timber construction.

32 ENERGY CONSERVATION, CONSUMPTION, AND UTILIZATI↗

Increasing large wildfires over the western United States linked to diminishing sea ice in the Arctic

Abstract The compound nature of large wildfires in combination with complex physical and biophysical processes affecting variations in hydroclimate and fuel conditions makes it difficult to directly connect wildfire changes over fire-prone regions like the western United States (U.S.) with anthropogenic climate change. Here we show that increasing large wildfires during autumn over the western U.S. are fueled by more fire-favorable weather associated with declines in Arctic sea ice during preceding months on both interannual and interdecadal time scales. Our analysis (based on observations, climate model sensitivity experiments, and a multi-model ensemble of climate simulations) demonstrates and explains the Arctic-driven teleconnection through regional circulation changes with the poleward-shifted polar jet stream and enhanced fire-favorable surface weather conditions. The fire weather changes driven by declining Arctic sea ice during the past four decades are of similar magnitude to other leading modes of climate variability such as the El Niño-Southern Oscillation that also influence fire weather in the western U.S.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

Informed Multi‐Scale Approach Applied to the British Columbia Fires of Late Summer 2017

Abstract Pyrocumulonimbus (PyroCb) clouds have a complex origin dependent on fire dynamics and meteorological conditions. When a pyrocumulonimbus cloud develops and is maintained over a period of time, it can inject significant aerosol into the troposphere and lower stratosphere, resulting in a longer‐term (months to years) occurrence of aerosol in the stratosphere. In this work, we investigate the British Columbia wildfires on 12–13 August 2017 using a multi‐scale simulation framework. We use the output of a physics‐based wildfire model (FIRETEC) with parameterized energy, particle, and gas emissions to drive the upper atmospheric aerosol mass injection within a regional cloud resolving model (HIGRAD). We demonstrate that vertical motions produced by latent heat release of the condensation of ice and cloud particles within the PyroCbs induce another 5 km of lifting of the simulated aerosol plume. Primary black carbon and organic aerosols (OAs) alone may not be enough to explain the observed aerosol burden, thus we show that secondary OA produced via condensation of gases by the fires, ash, and possibly dust can enhance lofted aerosol mass. A simulation with all emission mechanisms active, driven by the observed fuel load and environmental conditions, reasonably reproduces an aerosol profile inferred from observational data.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

Transient Efficiency Flexibility and Reliability Optimization of Coal-Fired Power Plants (Reduced Order Model Development Report)

This document pertains to the reporting requirements of DOE contract FE-0031767. The document covers the development of a reduced order model library that can be used to represent coal-fired power plants. The models are transient and physics-based. Model classes in the library that correspond to different components in CFPPs are presented with physical explanations and representative results. Also, the use of the library to build an overall model for a representative CFPP is presented along with simulation results.

20 FOSSIL-FUELED POWER PLANTS↗