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DOE OSTI2024

Hydropower Capacity Factor Trends & Analytics for the United States

This data repository contains all code, input data, and data generated for Turner et al. (2024)—“Hydropower capacity factors trending down in the United States”. File descriptions: – hydro-cf-trends-inputs.zip: Full set of input data used in this study, organized for direct entry into “/data” directory of hydro-cf-trends data processing pipeline. – hydro-cf-trends.zip: Full data processing pipeline, coded using the R {targets} framework. This is a snapshot release (v1.0) of the code repository stored at https://code.ornl.gov/turnersw/hydro-cf-trends/. – hydro-cf-trends-results.zip: Provides all dam level results required to reproduce results and graphics in Turner et al. (2024). Dams are identified by the “complxID” (root of the hydropower plant ID in the Existing Hydropower Assets Database, inherited from HILARRI). Results include: • dam_CF_trends.csv: Table of long-term trends in annualized capacity factors for 610 dams and modeled annualized capacity factors for 362 modeled dams (naturalized and assimilated flows). • dam_annualized_CF_gen.csv: Annualized time series of the following variables for each of 610 hydropower dams with nameplate > 5MW – Reported nameplate capacity (MW) – Implied maximum annual generation (MWh) – Reported net generation (MWh) – Computed annual capacity factor – Modeled annual capacity factor (362 modeled plants only)

13 HYDRO ENERGY↗

DOE OSTI2024

Optimization of prefabricated component installation using a real-time evaluator (RTE) connection locating system

Prefabrication promises to industrialize the construction industry. By constructing elements within a manufacturing environment, producers can better control quality and maximize production efficiency. Since the major adoption of prefabrication, a wide variety of prefabricated components have been produced for varying applications such as new construction and exterior wall retrofits. While the production processes of these prefabricated components have seen much innovation, the installation process has remained relatively unchanged for decades. To innovate the installation process with modern technologies, a real-time evaluator (RTE) has been developed to reduce the installation cost of prefabricated components by reducing installation time, decreasing rework, and improving accuracy. The RTE uses developed software solutions with off-the-shelf hardware to assist erectors in completing an installation by measuring the real-time positions of connections and prefabricated components, providing installation guidance through a graphical user interface, and monitoring the accumulated installation errors. An overview of the RTE and proposed workflow is presented. A connection locating system that guides users in expediting the installation of connections is introduced. Laboratory experiments were conducted to determine the accuracy improvement and time savings of the RTE in installing connections for prefabricated components. RTE enabled a time saving of up to 37% compared to traditional connection installation methods using handheld measurement tools.

Hayes, Nolan↗

DOE OSTI2025

Integration of a real-time orientation measurement system for a real-time evaluator (RTE) to measure the position and orientation of crane-lifted components

Prefabrication of building components holds the potential to revolutionize the construction industry. Prefabrication consists of manufacturing building components, modules, and other elements in a factory to be shipped and installed on a construction site. Prefabricated components have been produced for various applications including precast concrete panels for new construction and exterior wall retrofits. The manufacturing process has seen much innovation in recent years; however, the installation process has seen minimal advancements. A real-time evaluator (RTE) was developed to reduce the installation cost of prefabricated components by reducing installation time, decreasing rework, and improving accuracy. The RTE uses off-the-shelf hardware and novel algorithms to assist erectors with component installation by measuring the real-time positions of connections and prefabricated components, providing installation guidance through a graphical user interface, and monitoring the accumulated installation errors. An overview of the RTE and the proposed workflow is presented. Previous on-site demonstrations provided valuable feedback from users on the potential areas for improvement of the system. One common request was real-time measurement of component orientation during lifting, a process that previously required that the component remain stationary while the laser tracker cycled through target prisms. This paper will present the incorporation and testing of a real-time orientation measurement system as it was implemented into the RTE, allowing for measurement of component orientation during movement.

Selvakumar, Balaji [ORNL]↗

DOE OSTI2026

A User-Friendly GUI Tool for Automated Microstructural Analysis of Fiber-Reinforced Composites and Porous Structures

Understanding and quantifying microstructural features such as fiber orientation and porosity is critical for predicting the mechanical behavior and performance of fiber-reinforced polymer composites. Traditional manual analysis is time-consuming, subjective, and unsuitable for high-throughput datasets. We present a graphical user interface (GUI) application that automates the analysis of microscopy images to extract key microstructural metrics, including fiber orientation tensors, fiber orientation distribution, porosity and pore size distribution. The app integrates multiple image segmentation techniques including global and local thresholding, clustering, and region-based approaches, offering flexibility for different types of image qualities and features. Users can load microstructural images, select regions of interest and segmentation techniques tailored to their image dataset. It also addresses a critical challenge in fiber orientation analysis: the ambiguities caused by touching, overlapping, or partially cut fibers. It supports autorun examples for standardized workflows, enabling reproducible analysis and facilitating training and benchmarking. This tool significantly reduces manual intervention, enhances consistency, and accelerates data generation for structure–property modeling, process optimization, and digital materials research. The tool is intended for use by materials scientists, engineers, and researchers engaged in composite characterization, quality control, and machine learning-based microstructural studies.

Chawla, Komal [ORNL] (ORCID:0000000190327565)↗

DOE OSTI2025

Drought adaptation index (DAI) based on BLUP as a selection approach for drought-resilient switchgrass germplasm

This study introduces a Drought Adaptation Index (DAI), derived from Best Linear Unbiased Prediction (BLUP), as a method to assess drought resilience in switchgrass (Panicum virgatum L.). A panel of 404 genotypes was evaluated under drought-stressed (CV) and well-watered (UC) conditions over four consecutive years (2019–2022). BLUP-estimated biomass yields were used to calculate the DAI, which enabled classification of genotypes into four adaptation groups: very well-adapted, well-adapted, adapted, and unadapted. The DAI was compared with conventional drought tolerance indices, including the Stress Susceptibility Index (SSI), Stress Tolerance Index (STI), Geometric Mean Productivity (GMP), and Yield Stability Index (YSI). Correlation analyses demonstrated strong agreement between DAI and these indices, supporting its validity and consistency. Biplot analyses using the Genotype plus Genotype-by-Environment Interaction (GGE) and Additive Main Effects and Multiplicative Interaction (AMMI) models revealed significant genotype-by-environment interactions (GEI) and identified J222.A, J463.A, and J295.A. A as high-performing genotypes, with J222.A exhibiting greater yield stability across treatments and years. Additionally, DAI isoline curves provided a graphical representation of differential genotype performance under drought and control conditions. These visualizations aided in distinguishing genotypes with stable and superior biomass yield across contrasting environments. Overall, the BLUP-based DAI is a robust and practical selection tool that improves the accuracy of identifying drought-resilient, high-yielding switchgrass genotypes. Its integration into breeding programs offers a comprehensive framework for improving biomass productivity and stress adaptation under variable climatic conditions. The application of DAI supports the development of climate-resilient cultivars and contributes to sustainable bioenergy and forage production systems.

BLUP↗

DOE OSTI2024

Modeling the Impact of Grain Size on Corrosion Behavior of Ni-Based Alloys in Molten Chloride Salt via Cellular Automata

Molten chloride salts hold significant promise as both thermal transfer and storage media for next-generation concentrated solar power (CSP) systems. However, molten chlorides pose a considerable corrosion risk to structural materials, particularly Ni-based alloys. One approach to enhancing corrosion resistance is through the optimization of grain structure; however, it remains uncertain whether increasing or decreasing grain size enhances corrosion resistance. A cellular automata (CA) program was developed to evaluate the interplay between grain size and corrosion in Ni-based alloy. Our CA program tracks alloy composition, surface roughness, and thickness loss via a graphical user interface, displaying corrosion and diffusion status, and multiple user input cards for tuning the simulation. CA simulations of Inconel 625 indicate enhanced corrosion resistance with increased grain size, with passivating oxides offering limited protection. Additionally, the temporal evolution of alloy surface roughness demonstrates notable fluctuations, with abrupt increases attributed to corrosion along vertical grain boundaries and sudden decreases to grain detachment from the protective film.

Materials Science↗

DOE OSTI2024

Open-Source Data Analysis Tool for Spectral Small-Angle X-ray Scattering Using Spectroscopic Photon-Counting Detector

Spectral small-angle X-ray scattering (sSAXS) is a powerful technique for material characterization from thicker samples by capturing elastic X-ray scattering data in angle- and energy-dispersive modes at small angles. This approach is enabled by the use of a 2D spectroscopic photon-counting detector that provides energy and position information of scattered photons when a sample is irradiated by a polychromatic X-ray beam. Here, we describe an open-source tool with a graphical interface for analyzing sSAXS data obtained from a 2D spectroscopic photon-counting detector with a large number of energy bins. The tool takes system geometry parameters and raw detector data to output 1D scattering patterns and a 2D spatially-resolved scattering map in the energy range of interest. We validated these features using data from samples of caffeine powder with well-known scattering peaks. This open-source tool will facilitate sSAXS data analysis for various material characterization applications.

Chemistry↗

DOE OSTI2024

Image Deconvolution and Point-spread Function Reconstruction with STARRED: A Wavelet-based Two-channel Method Optimized for Light-curve Extraction

We present starred, a point-spread function (PSF) reconstruction, two-channel deconvolution, and light-curve extraction method designed for high-precision photometric measurements in imaging time series. An improved resolution of the data is targeted rather than an infinite one, thereby minimizing deconvolution artifacts. In addition, starred performs a joint deconvolution of all available data, accounting for epoch-to-epoch variations of the PSF and decomposing the resulting deconvolved image into a point source and an extended source channel. The output is a high-signal-to-noise-ratio, high-resolution frame combining all data and the photometry of all point sources in the field of view as a function of time. Of note, starred also provides exquisite PSF models for each data frame. We showcase three applications of starred in the context of the imminent LSST survey and of JWST imaging: (i) the extraction of supernovae light curves and the scene representation of their host galaxy; (ii) the extraction of lensed quasar light curves for time-delay cosmography; and (iii) the measurement of the spectral energy distribution of globular clusters in the "Sparkler," a galaxy at redshift z = 1.378 strongly lensed by the galaxy cluster SMACS J0723.3-7327. starred is implemented in jax, leveraging automatic differentiation and graphics processing unit acceleration. This enables the rapid processing of large time-domain data sets, positioning the method as a powerful tool for extracting light curves from the multitude of lensed or unlensed variable and transient objects in the Rubin-LSST data, even when blended with intervening objects.

79 ASTRONOMY AND ASTROPHYSICS↗

DOE OSTI2025

Performance-portable Binary Neutron Star Mergers with AthenaK

We introduce an extension to the AthenaK code for general-relativistic magnetohydrodynamics (GRMHD) in dynamical spacetimes using a 3+1 conservative Eulerian formulation. Like the fixed-spacetime GRMHD solver, we use standard finite-volume methods to evolve the fluid and a constrained-transport scheme to preserve the divergence-free constraint for the magnetic field. We also utilize a first-order flux correction (FOFC) scheme to reduce the need for an artificial atmosphere and optionally enforce a maximum principle to improve robustness. We demonstrate the accuracy of AthenaK using a set of standard tests in flat and curved spacetimes. Using a SANE accretion disk around a Kerr black hole, we compare the new solver to the existing solver for stationary spacetimes using the so-called "HARM-like" formulation. We find that both formulations converge to similar results. We also include the first published binary neutron star (BNS) mergers performed on graphical processing units (GPUs). Thanks to the FOFC scheme, our BNS mergers maintain a relative error of $\mathcal{O}$(10 –11 ) or better in baryon mass conservation up to collapse. Finally, we perform scaling tests of AthenaK on OLCF Frontier, where we show excellent weak scaling of ≥80% efficiency up to 32,768 GPUs and 74% up to 65,536 GPUs for a GRMHD problem in dynamical spacetimes with six levels of mesh refinement. AthenaK achieves an order-of-magnitude speedup using GPUs compared to CPUs, demonstrating that it is suitable for performing numerical relativity problems on modern exascale resources.

73 NUCLEAR PHYSICS AND RADIATION PHYSICS↗

DOE OSTI2026

The 2025 Evaluation of Experimental Thermonuclear Reaction Rates (ETR25)

This work describes the formalism for estimating thermonuclear reaction rates for astrophysical applications, emphasizing modern statistical approaches such as Monte Carlo sampling and Bayesian models. We discuss related topics including the calculation of resonance energies from nuclear Q values, indirect estimates of particle partial widths, and matching of reaction rates at elevated temperatures to statistical model results. We have evaluated available experimental data on cross sections, resonance energies and strengths, partial widths, lifetimes, spin-parities, and spectroscopic factors. Based on these results, we have estimated numerical values of 78 experimental charged-particle thermonuclear reaction rates for target nuclei in the A = 2–40 mass region, for temperatures ranging from 1 MK to 10 GK. For each reaction, three rate values are provided: low, median, and high, corresponding to the 16th, 50th, and 84th percentiles, respectively, of the cumulative reaction rate probability density distribution. Additionally, we present the factor uncertainty of each rate at each temperature grid point. These results enable users to sample the reaction rate probability density in nucleosynthesis calculations, facilitating uncertainty estimates of nuclidic abundances. The rates presented here refer to their laboratory values. For use in stellar model simulations, these values need to be corrected for the effects of thermal excitations of the interacting nuclei. For each reaction, we include graphs that illustrate the fractional contributions to the overall reaction rate along with the associated uncertainty. These visuals are designed to assist both stellar modelers and nuclear experimentalists by identifying the primary sources of rate uncertain=^texttx);ty at specific stellar temperatures. A graphical comparison with earlier Monte Carlo rates is also provided.

Nuclear astrophysics↗

DOE OSTI2026

Bayesian chain graph models to characterize microbe-environment dynamics

Microbiome data require statistical models that can simultaneously decode microbes' reaction to the environment and interactions among microbes. While a multiresponse linear regression model seems like a straight-forward solution, we argue that treating it as a graphical model is problematic given that the regression coefficient matrix does not encode the conditional dependence structure between response and predictor nodes. This observation is especially important in biological settings when we have prior knowledge on the edges from specific experimental interventions that can only be properly encoded under a conditional dependence model. Here, we propose a chain graph model with two sets of nodes (predictors and responses) whose solution yields a graph with edges that indeed represent conditional dependence, thus agreeing with the experimenter's intuition on the average behavior of nodes under treatment. The solution to our model is sparse via the Bayesian linear regression (LASSO). In addition, we propose an adaptive extension so that different shrinkages can be applied to different edges to incorporate edge-specific prior knowledge. Our model is computationally inexpensive through an efficient Gibbs sampling algorithm and can account for binary, counting, and compositional responses via an appropriate hierarchical structure. We test the performance of our model in a variety of simulated datasets, thereby showing superior performance to state-of-the-art approaches. We further apply our model to human gut and soil microbial compositional datasets, and we highlight that CG-LASSO can estimate biologically meaningful network structures in the data.

compositional data↗

DOE OSTI2025

Measurements of the Higgs boson production cross section in the four-lepton final state in proton-proton collisions at $\sqrt{s}$ = 13.6 TeV

The measurements of the Higgs boson (H) production cross sections performed by the CMS Collaboration in the four-lepton (4ℓ, ℓ = e, μ) final state at a center-of-mass energy $\sqrt{s}$ = 13.6 TeV are presented. These measurements are based on data collected with the CMS detector at the CERN LHC in 2022, corresponding to an integrated luminosity of 34.7 fb$^{−1}$. Cross sections are measured in a fiducial region closely matching the experimental acceptance, both inclusively and differentially, as a function of the transverse momentum and the absolute value of the rapidity of the four-lepton system. The H → ZZ → 4ℓ inclusive fiducial cross section is measured to be ${2.89}_{-0.49}^{+0.53}{\left({\text{stat}}\right)}_{-0.21}^{+0.29}\left({\text{syst}}\right)$ fb, in agreement with the standard model expectation of ${3.09}_{-0.24}^{+0.27}$ fb.[graphic not available: see fulltext]

72 PHYSICS OF ELEMENTARY PARTICLES AND FIELDS↗

DOE OSTI2025

Entanglement swapping systems toward a quantum internet

We demonstrate conditional entanglement swapping, i.e. teleportation of entanglement, between time-bin qubits at the telecommunication wavelength of 1536.4 nm with high fidelity of 87%. Our system is deployable, utilizing modular, off-the-shelf, fiber-coupled, and electrically controlled components such as electro-optic modulators. It leverages the precise timing resolution of superconducting nanowire detectors, which are controlled and read out via a custom developed graphical user interface. The swapping process is described, interpreted, and guided using characteristic function-based analytical modeling that accounts for realistic imperfections. Our system supports quantum networking protocols, including source-independent quantum key distribution, with an estimated secret key rate of approximately 0.5 bits per sifted bit.

Davis, Samantha I. [Caltech] (ORCID:00000001999481↗

DOE OSTI2025

Optimization Studies of Radiation Shielding for the PIP-II Project at Fermilab

The PIP-II project at Fermilab, which includes an 800-MeV superconducting LINAC, demands rigorous radiation shielding optimization to meet safety requirements. We updated the MARS geometry model to reflect new magnet and collimator designs and introduced high-resolution detector planes to better capture radiation field distributions. To overcome the significant computational demands, we implemented a well-known branching technique that drastically reduced simulation runtimes while maintaining statistical integrity. This was achieved through particle splitting and the application of Russian Roulette techniques. Additionally, new graphical tools were created to streamline data visualization and MARS code usability.

Makovec, Alajos [Fermilab] (ORCID:0000000286157492↗

DOE OSTI2025

Kinematic flow from the flow of cuts

The wavefunction coefficients of conformally coupled scalars in power-law FRW cosmologies satisfy differential equations governed by a set of simple combinatorial rules known as the kinematic flow. In this paper we derive the kinematic flow, expressed using a set of differential forms referred to as the cut basis, from a geometric perspective, relying solely on the cosmological hyperplane arrangement and without invoking bulk physics. Each element of the cut basis corresponds to the positive geometry associated to an independent cut of the physical FRW-form and can be labeled by decorating (minors of) the truncated Feynman graph with an acyclic orientation. We provide a straightforward prescription to associate a logarithmic differential form to each element of the cut basis by considering its corresponding decorated graph. Moreover, we show that the residues of the physical FRW-form are canonical forms of certain graphical zonotopes labeled by the same set of decorated graphs. These zonotopes control the cut combinatorics -- flow of cuts -- of the physical FRW-form and the cut basis (by construction). Using the theory of relative twisted cohomology and intersection theory, we derive a closed form formula for the differential equations of the cut basis. We also introduce combinatorial rules that compute the kinematic differential of any basis element without explicit calculation. The combinatorics of our differential equations is a natural consequence of the flow of cuts and is equivalent (up to rescaling) to the kinematic flow for the recently studied time integral basis. In particular, our differential equations decouple into exponentially many sectors, one for each way of cutting a subset of edges of the graph.

General Relativity and Quantum Cosmology↗

DOE OSTI2025

Urban weather modeling using WRF: linking physical assumptions, code implementation, and observational needs

The Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF) model includes urban schemes that simulate the influence of urban surfaces on the atmosphere using parameterizations for flux, and radiative exchanges. Three core schemes – the Bulk urban parameterization, Single-Layer Urban Canopy Model (SLUCM), and Multi-Layer Urban Canopy Model (MLUCM) – represent increasing levels of complexity. Although the parameterizations within these urban schemes are described in the literature, their specific implementation remains poorly documented, thus slowing down model development efforts. This manuscript provides a roadmap to the three urban schemes in WRF version 4.5.2, presenting equations using the same symbols as in the model code, along with references to code lines, and including graphics and explanations that connect the code to its physical foundations. Our thorough review of the urban parameterizations implemented in WRF version 4.5.2 highlighted a handful of parameters that may introduce discontinuities in simulations: (i) in the SLUCM, a 1 mm h −1 rain rate threshold is employed to switch between two minimum moisture availability parameterizations, thus impacting latent heat flux calculations; (ii) in the SLUCM a threshold is used to partition shortwave radiation into direct and diffuse components; (iii) in all three urban schemes, the bulk Richardson number is employed to select the similarity function, which influences the vertical distribution of heat and momentum. We also identified a highly simplified treatment of the radiative balance on roof surfaces. The implications of these simplifications can be assessed through targeted observations across relevant conditions, including varying precipitation rates, cloud cover, and transitions between stability regimes. Furthermore, the widespread application of the Monin-Obukhov similarity theory in these urban schemes warrants model evaluation under highly stable and unstable conditions and in heterogeneous urban settings with variable land cover and building heights on scales finer than model resolution. To address these challenges, we offer guidance on observational strategies, emphasizing the need for multi-parametric measurements to capture potential compensating biases and multi-height measurements that align with the levels where quantities are diagnostic and prognosed in the model (i.e., the lowest atmospheric level of the WRF model). Finally, our inspection of the code revealed implementation bugs that have now been corrected in WRF versions 4.6.0 and 4.6.1. Sensitivity tests over the Atlanta urban area show that these corrections affect surface temperatures, underscoring the importance of performing rigorous documentation and verification of the implementation of parameterizations in model code.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

DOE OSTI2026

The ocean model for E3SM global applications: Omega version 0.1.0 – a new high-performance computing code for exascale architectures

This paper introduces Omega, the Ocean Model for E3SM Global Applications. Omega is a new ocean model designed to run efficiently on high performance computing (HPC) platforms, including exascale heterogeneous architectures with accelerators, such as Graphics Processing Units (GPUs). Omega is written in C and uses the Kokkos performance portability library. These were chosen because they are well-supported and will help future-proof Omega for upcoming HPC architectures. Omega will eventually replace the Model for Prediction Across Scales-Ocean (MPAS-Ocean) in the US Department of Energy's (DOE's) Energy Exascale Earth System Model (E3SM). Omega runs on unstructured horizontal meshes with variable-resolution capability and implements the same horizontal discretization as MPAS-Ocean. This work documents the design and performance of Omega Version 0.1.0 (Omega-V0), which solves the shallow water equations with passive tracers and is the first step towards the full primitive equation ocean model. On Central Processing Units (CPUs), Omega-V0 is 1.4 times faster than MPAS-Ocean with the same configuration. Omega-V0 is more efficient on GPUs than CPUs on a per-watt basis – by a factor of 5.3 on Frontier and 3.6 on Aurora, two of the world's fastest exascale computers.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

DOE OSTI2026

Evolution of the Antarctic Ice Sheet from 2000–2300 and beyond: model sensitivity and uncertainty analysis using MPAS-Albany Land Ice

We present a description of the Antarctic Ice Sheet model configuration submitted to the ISMIP6-Antarctica-2300 experiment using the MPAS-Albany Land Ice model, along with three new sets of simulations: (1) a set of extended simulations to 2500 for three forced experiments and to 2775 for the control experiment; (2) a sensitivity analysis of our model configuration to parameters controlling basal sliding and sub-shelf melt, and to model structural choices including the choice of the energy and stress balances; and (3) a 72-member ensemble run on graphics processing units (GPUs) and analysis of variance to determine the primary sources of uncertainty in our ice-sheet model projections. Our extended simulations predict rapid retreat beginning after 2300 for SSP1-2.6 forcing and after 2500 for present-day (control) forcing, primarily in the Amundsen Sea Embayment. We find that varying the sub-shelf melt parameter between the 5th to 95th percentile values for a mean-Antarctic calibration target results in an up to ∼ ± 40 % change in sea-level contribution relative to our baseline simulations that used the median value. Using a linear basal sliding law reduces sea-level contribution by 51 %–73 % relative to our baseline nonlinear sliding law with an exponent of 1/5. When using basal sliding law exponents of 1/3 and 1/10, the overall difference from our baseline simulations at 2300 is on the order of 10 %. The Amundsen Sea Embayment region displays a strongly non-linear dependence of mass loss on the sliding law exponent, with no discernible relationship between the sliding law exponent and the mass loss by 2300, while the sectors feeding the Ross and Filchner-Ronne ice shelves exhibit more mass loss with a more-plastic sliding law. Our model fidelity sensitivity experiments reveal a 9 %–31 % increase in sea-level contribution when using a depth-integrated stress balance approximation relative to our three-dimensional solver, while using a fixed-in-time temperature field increases sea-level contribution by 14 %–88 % relative to two thermomechanically coupled configurations. Our 72-member ensemble and analysis of variance show that the uncertainty in long-term projections is dominated by the choice of Earth system model forcing and the presence or absence of hydrofracture forcing, rather than uncertainty in sliding and sub-shelf melt parameters.

58 GEOSCIENCES↗