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Search indexed NASA NTRS and DOE OSTI research on propulsion, heat transfer, battery materials and energy systems. Follow report and document links to the original sources.

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At least 343 records · Page 19
All sourcesNASA NTRSDOE OSTI
DOE OSTI2025

Supply Chain Energy and Greenhouse Gas Analysis Using the Materials Flows Through Industry (MFI) Tool: Examination of Alternative Technology Scenarios for the U.S. Chemical Sector

Chemical manufacturing is a large and diverse sector of the U.S. economy, with products, fuels, and a wide assortment of materials used daily by both the public and businesses. Currently, several of the largest volume chemicals produced in the United States rely on fossil fuels as a feedstock, energy source, or both. The list of chemicals includes steam cracking products such as ethylene, propylene, benzene, and xylenes as well as products such as ammonia and methanol. The focus for this work is on platform chemicals that are both produced in the largest volume and have a high potential for subsequent processing into more specialized products. In this study, we explore several new pathways that reduce the overall energy consumption and greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions for each product. These pathways include energy efficiency measures applied to existing production methods, the use of bio‐based fuels and/or feedstocks as new production methods, and electrification of high‐energy‐input stages within current production methods. Scenarios for energy demand and GHG reduction were conducted with the National Renewable Energy Laboratory's Materials Flows through Industry tool. Projections of the energy demand and GHG emissions in 2030 and 2050 are included, using grid composition projections from the NREL ReEDS model. The alternative scenarios selected showcase the effect of realistic changes the industry could make, focusing on technologies with a high level of technical readiness.

29 ENERGY PLANNING, POLICY, AND ECONOMY↗
DOE OSTI2024

Integrating Tide‐Driven Wetland Soil Redox and Biogeochemical Interactions Into a Land Surface Model

Abstract Redox processes, aqueous and solid‐phase chemistry, and pH dynamics are key drivers of subsurface biogeochemical cycling and methanogenesis in terrestrial and wetland ecosystems but are typically not included in terrestrial carbon cycle models. These omissions may introduce errors when simulating systems where redox interactions and pH fluctuations are important, such as wetlands where saturation of soils can produce anoxic conditions and coastal systems where sulfate inputs from seawater can influence biogeochemistry. Integrating cycling of redox‐sensitive elements could therefore allow models to better represent key elements of carbon cycling and greenhouse gas production. We describe a model framework that couples the Energy Exascale Earth System Model (E3SM) Land Model (ELM) with PFLOTRAN biogeochemistry, allowing geochemical processes and redox interactions to be integrated with land surface model simulations. We implemented a reaction network including aerobic decomposition, fermentation, sulfate reduction, sulfide oxidation, methanogenesis, and methanotrophy as well as pH dynamics along with iron oxide and iron sulfide mineral precipitation and dissolution. We simulated biogeochemical cycling in tidal wetlands subject to either saltwater or freshwater inputs driven by tidal hydrological dynamics. In simulations with saltwater tidal inputs, sulfate reduction led to accumulation of sulfide, higher dissolved inorganic carbon concentrations, lower dissolved organic carbon concentrations, and lower methane emissions than simulations with freshwater tidal inputs. Model simulations compared well with measured porewater concentrations and surface gas emissions from coastal wetlands in the Northeastern United States. These results demonstrate how simulating geochemical reaction networks can improve land surface model simulations of subsurface biogeochemistry and carbon cycling.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2022

Land use for bioenergy: Synergies and trade-offs between sustainable development goals

Bioenergy aims to reduce greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions and contribute to meeting global climate change mitigation targets. Nevertheless, several sustainability concerns are associated with bioenergy, especially related to the impacts of using land for dedicated energy crop production. Cultivating energy crops can result in synergies or trade-offs between GHG emission reductions and other sustainability effects depending on context-specific conditions. Using the United Nations Sustainable Development Goals (SDGs) framework, the main synergies and trade-offs associated with land use for dedicated energy crop production were identified. Furthermore, the context-specific conditions (i.e., biomass feedstock, previous land use, climate, soil type and agricultural management) which affect those synergies and trade-offs were also identified. The most recent literature was reviewed and a pairwise comparison between GHG emission reduction (SDG 13) and other SDGs was carried out. A total of 427 observations were classified as either synergy (170), trade-off (176), or no effect (81). Most synergies with environmentally-related SDGs, such as water quality and biodiversity conservation, were observed when perennial crops were produced on arable land, pasture or marginal land in the ‘cool temperate moist’ climate zone and ‘high activity clay’ soils. Most trade-offs were related to food security and water availability. Previous land use and feedstock type are more impactful in determining synergies and trade-offs than climatic zone and soil type. This study highlights the importance of considering context-specific conditions in evaluating synergies and trade-offs and their relevance for developing appropriate policies and practices to meet worldwide demand for bioenergy in a sustainable manner.

09 BIOMASS FUELS↗
DOE OSTI2023

Isolating the effect of biomass burning aerosol emissions on 20th century hydroclimate in South America and Southeast Asia

Abstract Biomass burning is a significant source of aerosol emissions in some regions and has a considerable impact on regional climate. Earth system model simulations indicate that increased biomass burning aerosol emissions contributed to statistically significant decreases in tropical precipitation over the 20th century. In this study, we use the Community Earth System Model version 1 Large Ensemble (CESM1-LENS) experiment to evaluate the mechanisms by which biomass burning aerosol contributed to decreased tropical precipitation, with a focus on South America and Southeast Asia. We analyze the all-but-one forcing simulations in which biomass burning aerosol emissions are held constant while other forcings (e.g., greenhouse gas concentrations) vary throughout the 20th century. This allows us to isolate the influence of biomass burning aerosol on processes that contribute to decreasing precipitation, including cloud microphysics, the radiative effects of absorbing aerosol particles, and alterations in regional circulation. We also show that the 20th century reduction in precipitation identified in the CESM1-LENS historical and biomass burning experiments is consistent across Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 5 models with interactive aerosol schemes and the CESM2 single-forcing experiment. Our results demonstrate that higher concentrations of biomass burning aerosol increases the quantity of cloud condensation nuclei and cloud droplets, limiting cloud droplet size and precipitation formation. Additionally, absorbing aerosols (e.g., black carbon) contribute to a warmer cloud layer, which promotes cloud evaporation, increases atmospheric stability, and alters regional circulation patterns. Corresponding convectively coupled circulation responses, particularly over the tropical Andes, contribute to further reducing the flow of moisture and moisture convergence over tropical land. These results elucidate the processes that affect the water cycle in regions prone to biomass burning and inform our understanding of how future changes in aerosol emissions may impact tropical precipitation over the 21st century.

Environmental Sciences & Ecology↗
DOE OSTI2020

Well-to-wheels greenhouse gas and air pollutant emissions from battery electric vehicles in China

Electric vehicles (EVs) play a crucial role in addressing climate change and urban air quality concerns. China has emerged as the global largest EV market with 1.2 million EVs sold in 2018. This study established a novel life cycle energy use and emission inventory collecting up-to-date data including the electricity generation mix, emission controls in the power and industrial sectors, and the energy use in the fuel transport to estimate the well-to-wheels (WTW) greenhouse gas (GHG), and air pollutant emissions for battery electric vehicles (BEVs) and gasoline passenger vehicles in China. The results show that an average BEV has 35% lower WTW GHG emissions than an average gasoline car. BEVs reduce volatile organic compounds (VOCs) and nitrogen oxides (NOX) emissions by 98% and 34%, respectively, but have comparable or slightly higher primary fine particulate matter (PM2.5) and sulfur dioxide (SO2) emissions. Compact and small-size vehicles generally have lower GHG and air pollutant emissions than mid- and large-size vehicles. Class A vehicles contribute the most in the absolute amount of GHG and air pollutant emissions and therefore have the biggest potential for emission reduction. Our results suggest that global policymakers should continue to promote the transition to clean power sources, emission control, and fuel economy regulations, which are critical to enhancing emission mitigation benefits of BEVs. We also suggest EV development strategies should be formulated targeting vehicle class with the biggest emission mitigation potentials.

Air pollutant emissions↗
DOE OSTI2021

The Co-Optimization of Sustainable Aviation Fuel: Cost, Emissions, and Performance

The combustion of petroleum-based fuels contributes to increases in atmospheric CO2, contributing to climate change. As other sectors electrify, current battery technology makes this impractical for the aviation industry. The fastest pathway to reducing the carbon contributions of aviation is to create low or no net carbon-emitting drop-in petroleum alternatives. This research explores 3 potential sorghum derived jet fuel molecules from 4 different production routes, hydro-processed esters and fatty acids (HEFA), and Jet A, to identify how blends including these fuels could offer improved performance (MJ/kg, MJ/L) and improved emissions (gCO2/MJ) while minimizing costs. Different applications will value each target metric differently. This research utilizes the Jet Fuel Blend Optimizer (JudO) to create a 4-dimensional Pareto front across potential solutions. The molecules considered will not offer reduced cost compared to conventional jet fuel (Jet A), but they can be utilized to create blends with higher specific energy, greater energy density, and reduced greenhouse gas emissions. Considerations including carbon credits, the sale of byproducts, and the valuation of improved performance will make the proposed molecules more commercially viable. At the lowest region of GHG solutions, coupled with equivalent LCFS approximations, JudO determined blends that could achieve as high as 69% overall carbon reductions at a premium of $0.34/L.

Feldhausen, John J.↗
DOE OSTI2020

Combining Reclaimed PET with Bio-Based Monomers Enables Plastics Upcycling

Less than 30% of PET plastic is recycled in the United States. The low reclamation rate may be due to mechanical recycling accounting for the majority of commercial PET recycling. Mechanical recycling yields a lower-quality recycled plastic than the process of chemically recycling back to the monomer phase, which can be energetically and economically expensive. In this work, recently published in Joule, reclaimed PET bottles are chemically recycled and converted into higher-value fiberglass-reinforced plastics (FRPs).This presentation will focus on the supply-chain level energy and greenhouse gas emissions intensities associated with this novel upcycling route. The Materials Flows through Industry supply chain analysis tool, developed at NREL, is used to estimate these impacts. Depending on the extent and speed of adoption, this strategy for plastic upcycling could lead to significant energy usage and emissions reductions over the traditional FRP supply chain. Overall, this approach may provide an economic incentive for plastics recycling and renewable feedstock use through the creation of higher-value FRPs.

29 ENERGY PLANNING, POLICY, AND ECONOMY↗
DOE OSTI2021

Shortened Duration of Global Warming Slowdowns with Elevated Greenhouse Gas Emissions

Continuous emissions of anthropogenic greenhouse gases (GHGs) and aerosols in the last 160 years have resulted in an increasing trend of global mean surface temperatures (GMSTs). Due to interactions with natural variability, rates of the combined anthropogenically and naturally induced warming trends are characterized by significant slowdowns and speedups on decadal timescales. In this work, by analyzing observed and model-simulated data, we investigate how the duration of these episodes will change with different strengths of GHG and aerosol forcing. We found that the duration of warming slowdowns can be more than 30 yr with a slower rate of anthropogenic emissions but would shorten to about 5 yr with a higher one. This duration reduction depends on both the magnitude of the climate response to anthropogenic forcing and the strength of the internal variability. Moreover, the warming slowdowns can still occur even towards the end of this century under high emissions scenarios but with significantly shortened duration.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2022

Electrification potential of U.S. industrial boilers and assessment of the GHG emissions impact

Electrification is a key strategy for decarbonizing the industrial sector. Industrial process heating, which still relies heavily on fossil fuel combustion and accounts for the majority of sector wide GHG emissions, is a particularly attractive electrification target. Electrifying industrial boilers represents a cross-cutting opportunity for GHG emissions reductions, given their widespread use in most manufacturing industries. Yet, there are gaps in the understanding of the current population of conventional industrial boilers in the United States that preclude a characterization of boiler electrification's technical potential to reduce fuel consumption and GHG emissions. In this study, we develop an up-to-date dataset of the industrial boiler population in the U.S. and quantify the county-level electricity requirements and net changes in fuel use and GHG emissions under the current electric grid and theoretical future grid scenarios. Our results show an increase of 105 MMmtCO 2 e and 73 MMmtCO 2 e in GHG emissions from boiler electrification, with and without the replacement of byproduct fuels, respectively, under the current electric grid, and a reduction of 19 MMmtCO2e and 7 MMmtCO2e in GHG emissions under a future high renewables electric grid. GHG emissions savings are currently possible only in certain regions of the U.S. unless future grids are decarbonized. We also provide discussion that could be useful for policy makers and manufacturing facilities for advancing the electrification of industrial boilers in locations and industries toward fuel savings and GHG emissions reductions.

29 ENERGY PLANNING, POLICY, AND ECONOMY↗
DOE OSTI2024

Helping the climate by replacing liquefied natural gas with liquefied hydrogen or ammonia?

The war in Ukraine caused Europe to more than double its imports of liquefied natural gas (LNG) in only one year. In addition, imported LNG remains a crucial source of energy for resource-poor countries, such as Japan, where LNG imports satisfy about a quarter of the country's primary energy demand. However, an increasing number of countries are formulating stringent decarbonization plans. Liquefied hydrogen and liquefied ammonia coupled with carbon capture and storage (LH 2 -CCS, LNH 3 -CCS) are emerging as the front runners in the search for low-carbon alternatives to LNG. Yet, little is currently known about the full environmental profile of LH 2 -CCS and LNH 3 -CCS because several characteristics of the two alternatives have only been analyzed in isolation in previous work. Here we show that the potential of these fuels to reduce greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions throughout the supply chain is highly uncertain. Our best estimate is that LH 2 -CCS and LNH 3 -CCS can reduce GHG emissions by 25%–61% relative to LNG assuming a 100 year global warming potential. However, directly coupling LNG with CCS would lead to substantial GHG reductions on the order of 74%. Further, under certain conditions, emissions from LH 2 -CCS and LNH 3 -CCS could exceed those of LNG, by up to 44%. These results question the suitability of LH 2 -CCS and LNH 3 -CCS for stringent decarbonization purposes.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2026

Supplementing biofuel mandates with a carbon mitigation policy can lead to water quality co-benefits

Biofuel mandates can impact the environment in multiple ways that may be positive or negative, including affecting life-cycle greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions by displacing fossil fuels, affecting soil carbon stocks due to accompanying land use change, and water quality due to changes in fertilizer requirements and the mix of crops used as feedstocks. To achieve desired environmental outcomes in the presence of a biofuel mandate, additional policy instruments must be adopted to supplement the mandate. We develop an integrated and spatially explicit ecosystem-economic modeling framework to analyze the cost-effectiveness of alternative policies to achieve desired targets for GHG emissions reduction from the agricultural and fuel sectors in the USA and nitrate leaching reduction in the Gulf of Mexico below the levels that would be achieved by a corn ethanol and/or a cellulosic ethanol mandate in the USA. We find that while a corn ethanol mandate lowers GHG emissions, it increases nitrate leaching due to the expansion of corn production; a cellulosic ethanol mandate lowers both GHG emissions and nitrate leaching relative to a corn ethanol mandate, but the additional carbon and nitrate prices are needed to achieve anticipated GHG reduction and nitrate reduction targets. We also find that accompanying a biofuel mandate with a GHG reduction target alone leads to substantial nitrate reduction co-benefits, but a nitrate reduction target alone is less effective in reducing GHG emissions. Combining a GHG standard with a nitrate standard can achieve GHG and nitrate reduction targets at lower carbon and nitrate prices as compared to implementing each of these policies independently. Furthermore, our findings show that disregarding policy co-benefits can overestimate the GHG and nitrate prices needed to achieve policy targets and higher policy costs.

09 BIOMASS FUELS↗
DOE OSTI2021

The Role of Mobility Data Hubs in an Integrated Decarbonized Transportation Future

The landscape for connected mobility ecosystems is evolving rapidly as information and communication technologies lower the cost and complexity of connecting people to places, integrating transportation modes and collecting data regarding such movements. These developments have been key to unlocking new business opportunities, particularly through mobility services. While the mechanisms for data collection, processing, and transfer have made significant advances in the past decade, the broader landscape of mobility data architectures and data users remains largely unresolved. It is unclear as to whether the result will converge towards a framework that resembles a coherent quilt or a disjointed patchwork of competing visions. Initial approaches to mobility data collection and provisioning have been largely siloed - by mode or software - or held for exclusive use, however several key players are quickly realizing the need and opportunities enabled through integrated mobility data eco-systems, or mobility data hubs as referred to in this paper. As the business case for hosting mobility data hubs evolves, there is great uncertainty regarding their impact to either advance or exacerbate sustainable mobility (e.g., seamless connectivity across modes, decreased energy consumption and greenhouse gas emissions, etc.). Groups such as the United Nations and World Bank have identified data platforms as a key enabler of realizing environmental and social benefits. If designed with decarbonization in mind, we hypothesize that enhanced observability provided by these ever-expanding mobility data hubs can facilitate energy and emissions reductions that are otherwise limited by transactional barriers and knowledge asymmetry that is inherent to a more siloed approach. In this sense, integration of mobility data can help to create a competitive playing field where value is not determined by exclusivity of data, but rather the quality and uniqueness of a given service. The goals of this paper are to 1) identify key players and data architectures that are emerging in a service-based mobility market, 2) explore several use cases where mobility data hubs have enabled greater sustainability outcomes, and 3) discuss key issues that will need to be resolved to fully leverage emerging mobility data hubs towards a sustainable transportation future.

ADVANCED PROPULSION SYSTEMS,MATHEMATICS AND COMPUT↗
DOE OSTI2022

Initial Considerations for Large-Scale Carbon Removal in the United States

The Biden Administration has established a goal of removing 1 Gt carbon dioxide equivalents per year (CO 2e /yr) from the atmosphere and of achieving net zero greenhouse gas emissions (GHG) by 2050. Our team of leading academic and DOE national laboratory experts is conducting the first economy-wide technical evaluation of the options for achieving this carbon dioxide removal (CDR) goal. The net zero goal includes targets of 100% clean electricity by 2035 with 40% GHG emissions reductions by 2030, which helps set primary scenario boundaries for our analysis of the CDR supply curve. Our analysis will evaluate feasibility, performance, and costs on a county level for the entire USA (including AK and HI where possible), considering all removal methods that are currently well-enough developed for us to estimate the likely costs in 2050. We anticipate that more than 1 Gt CO 2e of removal will be available to the Nation. We will identify how much of each CO 2 removal approach is available in specific regions of the Nation and provide cumulative costs and volumes (a supply curve) by region for 2050. We expect to complete this detailed analysis by late 2023.

42 ENGINEERING↗
DOE OSTI2023

Strategies to overcome mass transfer limitations of hydrogen during anaerobic gaseous fermentations: A comprehensive review

Fermentation of gaseous substrates such as carbon dioxide (CO 2 ) has emerged as a sustainable approach for transforming greenhouse gas emissions into renewable fuels and biochemicals. CO 2 fermentations are catalyzed by hydrogenotrophic methanogens and homoacetogens, these anaerobic microorganisms selectively reduce CO 2 using hydrogen (H 2 ) as electron donor. However, H 2 possesses low solubility in liquid media leading to slow mass transport, limiting the reaction rates of CO 2 reduction. Solving the problems of mass transport of H 2 could boost the advance of technologies for valorizing industrial CO 2 -rich streams, like biogas or syngas. The application could further be extended to combustion flue gases or even atmospheric CO 2 . In this work, an overview of strategies for overcoming H 2 mass transport limitations during methanogenic and acetogenic fermentation of H 2 and CO 2 is presented. Here, the potential for using these strategies in future full-scale facilities and the knowledge gaps for these applications are discussed in detail.

09 BIOMASS FUELS↗
DOE OSTI2025

High-current-density electrosynthesis of formate from captured CO 2 solution by MOF-derived bismuth nanosheets

Greenhouse gas emissions present a significant challenge to humanity, and utilizing renewable electricity to convert emitted CO 2 into value-added products offers a promising solution; however, traditional CO 2 capture and regeneration processes remain energy-intensive, restricting the overall system efficiency and decarbonization efficacy. In this study, an advanced direct reduction of captured CO 2 with large current densities for formate electrosynthesis was demonstrated without the need for CO 2 regeneration or compression. The bismuth nanosheet (DRM-BiNS) was synthesized by direct reduction of a Bi-based MOF, representing a new class of catalytic materials with a large surface area and interconnected pores, suitable for the direct reduction of captured CO 2 . By seamlessly combining experimentation and simulation, insights into the structure-parameter-performance relation were acquired in a flow cell setting, including critical membrane-electrode distance, cell orientation, and pumping flow rate. Important flow-cell components, such as catholyte volume, electrode substrate, membrane choice, and ionomer type, were also carefully examined to enhance the cell performance. In sharp contrast to prior studies limited to current densities below 20 mA/cm 2 in bicarbonate-based captured CO 2 solutions, this work demonstrates a remarkable current density of 300 mA/cm 2 with an FE to formate comparable to the case with gas-fed CO 2 reduction. Moreover, the process sustained an FE above 50% at a high current density of 500 mA/cm 2 . The DRM-BiNS catalyst exhibited outstanding selectivity, activity, and stability, significantly outperforming oxide-derived bismuth nanosheets (OD-BiNS) in captured CO 2 reduction. Furthermore, these findings offer critical insights into the development of sustainable and scalable CO 2 utilization technologies.

32 ENERGY CONSERVATION, CONSUMPTION, AND UTILIZATI↗
DOE OSTI2023

Heat pumps in the United States: Market potentials, challenges and opportunities, technology advances

The US heat pump market has been affected by the socioeconomic impacts of the COVID-19 pandemic. However, the Biden administration’s goal of net-zero greenhouse gas emissions by 2050 through electrification and clean energy technologies is accelerating the research, development, and deployment of heat pumps in the United States for improved energy performance, reduced greenhouse gas emissions, and wider adoption. The US heat pump market has experienced steady growth since 2010. In 2020, heat pumps surpassed gas furnace shipments for the first time, and the trend maintains through 2022. The current priority is to improve the affordability of energy and equitable access to heat pump technologies through cost reductions and further accelerate this trend. In addition, current R&D includes emphases on alternative refrigeration technology and lower–global warming potential refrigerants to reduce direct emissions. Heat pump market share is expected to grow as regulatory policies and financial incentives steer the building sector toward decarbonization. This paper reviews policies and market trends, discusses the challenges and opportunities in the current policy landscape, and reviews current research in the United States.

Malhotra, Mini↗
DOE OSTI2025

Greenhouse Gas Emissions Associated with Pretreatment Techniques Utilized for Biosugar Production

Less carbon-intensive production of biosugars from lignocellulosic materials can lead to improved manufacturing of biofuels and bioproducts. In this study, the production of biosugars is analyzed to understand the potential of producing bioproducts from biosugars with a low carbon intensity. Life-cycle assessment is conducted on five lignocellulosic feedstocks along with seven pretreatment techniques to produce biosugars as an important platform intermediate for producing bioproducts. The production of electricity using lignin with and without heat integration was also incorporated. In addition, seven bioproducts are analyzed for the estimation of the GHG emissions budget, which represents the emissions available to convert, separate, and upgrade biosugars into bioproducts within the 70% emissions reduction target. Corn stover-deacetylation and dilute acid pretreatment (CS-DDA) provide the lowest GHG emissions for biosugar (0.03 kg CO 2 eq/kg biosugar) and thereby the highest GHG emissions budget for the case of lactic acid production (3.76 kg CO 2 eq/kg lactic acid). Natural gas and chemicals are the major contributors to all of the pretreatment techniques under study. The outcomes from this study can benefit the advancement of upcoming biobased processes that meet decarbonization targets.

Biopolymers↗
DOE OSTI2024

Future climate doubles the risk of hydraulic failure in a wet tropical forest

Summary Future climate presents conflicting implications for forest biomass. We evaluate how plant hydraulic traits, elevated CO 2 levels, warming, and changes in precipitation affect forest primary productivity, evapotranspiration, and the risk of hydraulic failure. We used a dynamic vegetation model with plant hydrodynamics (FATES‐HYDRO) to simulate the stand‐level responses to future climate changes in a wet tropical forest in Barro Colorado Island, Panama. We calibrated the model by selecting plant trait assemblages that performed well against observations. These assemblages were run with temperature and precipitation changes for two greenhouse gas emission scenarios (2086–2100: SSP2‐45, SSP5‐85) and two CO 2 levels (contemporary, anticipated). The risk of hydraulic failure is projected to increase from a contemporary rate of 5.7% to 10.1–11.3% under future climate scenarios, and, crucially, elevated CO 2 provided only slight amelioration. By contrast, elevated CO 2 mitigated GPP reductions. We attribute a greater variation in hydraulic failure risk to trait assemblages than to either CO 2 or climate. Our results project forests with both faster growth (through productivity increases) and higher mortality rates (through increasing rates of hydraulic failure) in the neo‐tropics accompanied by certain trait plant assemblages becoming nonviable.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗