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340 records · Page 19

Aeroflex Technology as Class-Y Demonstrator

Modern space field programmable gate array (FPGA) devices with increased functional density and operational frequency, such as Xilinx Virtex 4 (V4) and S (V5), are packaged in non-hermetic ceramic flip chip forms. These next generation space parts were not qualified to the MIL-PRF-38535 Qualified Manufacturer Listing (QML) class-V when they were released because class-V was only intended for hermetic parts. In order to bring Xilinx V5 type packages into the QML system, it was suggested that class-Y be set up as a new category. From 2010 through 2014, a JEDEC G12 task group developed screening and qualification requirements for Class-Y products. The Document Standardization Division of the Defense Logistics Agency (DLA) has completed an engineering practice study. In parallel with the class-Y efforts, the NASA Electronic Parts and Packaging (NEPP) program has funded JPL to study potential reliability issues of the class-Y products. The major hurdle of this task was the absence of adequate research samples. Figure 1-1 shows schematic diagrams of typical structures of class-Y type products. Typically, class-Y products are either in ceramic flip chip column grid array (CGA) or land grid array (LGA) form. In class-Y packages, underfill and heat spread adhesive materials are directly exposed to the spacecraft environment due to their non-hermeticity. One of the concerns originally raised was that the underfill material could degrade due to the spacecraft environment and negatively impact the reliability of the package. In order to study such issues, it was necessary to use ceramic daisy chain flip chip package samples so that continuity of flip chip solder bumps could be monitored during the reliability tests. However, none of the commercially available class-Y daisy chain parts had electrical connections through flip chip solder bumps; only solder columns were daisy chained, which made it impossible to test continuity of flip chip solder bumps without using extremely costly functional parts. Among space parts manufacturers who were interested in producing class-Y products, Aeroflex Microelectronic Solutions-HiRel had been developing assembly processes using their internal R&D classy type samples. In early 2012, JPL and Aeroflex initiated a collaboration to study reliability of the Aeroflex technology as a class-Y demonstrator.

Suh, Jong-ook↗

MFLOP to GFLOP: The Impact on High Fidelity Based Computational Aeroelasticity

Aeroelasticity which involves strong coupling of fluids, structures and controls is an important element in designing an aircraft. Computational aeroelasticity using low fidelity methods such as the linear aerodynamic flow equations coupled with the modal structural equations are well advanced. Though these low fidelity approaches are computationally less intensive, they are not adequate for the analysis of modern aircraft which can experience complex flow/structure interactions. Even at moderate angles of attack supersonic aircraft can experience vortex induced aeroelastic oscillations. Near transonic speeds buffet associated structural oscillations are possible. Aircraft flying in transonic regime may experience a dip in the flutter speed. For accurate aeroelastic computations at these complex fluid/structure interaction situations, high fidelity equations such as the Navier-Stokes for fluids and the finite-elements for structures are needed. Computations using these high fidelity equations require large computational resources both in memory and speed. Current conventional supercomputers have reached their limitations both in memory and speed. As a result, parallel computers have evolved to overco me the limitations of conventional computers. This paper will address the transition that is taking place in computational aeroelasticity from conventional computers to parallel computers. The paper will address special techniques needed to take advantage of the architecture of new parallel computers. Results will be illustrated from computations made on iPSC/860 and IBM SP2 computer by using ENSAERO code that directly couples the Euler/Navier-Stokes flow equations with high resolution finite-element structural equations. Modifications required in both fluids and structural solvers in order to run efficiently on parallel computers will be discussed. Implementation of moving grids and fluid/structural interface on parallel computers will be discussed.

Guruswamy, Guru P.↗

Preliminary Scale-Resolving Simulations of Laminar-To-Turbulent Transition in Swept-Wing Flow

Swept wings and control surfaces are common elements of modern aircraft, and it has been shown both experimentally and theoretically that laminar-to-turbulent transition of the three-dimensional boundary layer that develops over them is highly sensitive to surface roughness. Numerous studies have been conducted on the effect of discrete roughness elements or distributed roughness elements on swept flow transition, however so far limited computational effort has been dedicated to the study of transition over swept wings with randomly distributed micron-sized roughness. In the present work, we set up to reproduce the extensive experimental data base generated by Dagenhart et al for the infinite swept wing NLF(2)-0415. To this purpose, we perform scale-resolving simulations of flow transition over smooth and rough surfaces using a high-order space-time spectral-element Discontinuous-Galerkin solver. Different types of surface roughnesses are implemented by elastically deforming the original mesh. The study shows that the experimental results cannot be accounted for by a perfectly smooth wing and reveals a strong sensitivity of the transition process to the representation of the surface roughness. The crossflow patterns and transition location approach those measured for some of the surface profiles, however a correlation between the wavenumber spectrum of the surface, grid resolution and boundary layer stability is yet to be established.

Denison, Marie↗

On the Accuracy of CFD-Based Pressure Drop Predictions for Right-Angle Ducts

The predictive capability of computational fluid dynamics (CFD) codes for turbulent flow through curved ducts is of significant importance to the design and performance analysis of modern rocket engine flowpaths. Code calibration and validation studies for this class of flow are desireable to estimate the performance margin and operating range of components designed using Navier-Stokes methods. Parametric experimental studies such as that of Weske (NACA ARR W-39) provided a wealth of performance data for the design of single- and compound elbow configurations with various cross-sections, curvature and aspect ratios at varying Reynolds numbers. In that work, the majority of data is presented in the form of loss coefficients, characterizing pressure losses due to duct curvature, and including losses due to wall friction. Using measured friction coefficients, losses of equivalent straight lengths of duct are subtracted, resulting in performance curves useful for design computations. These data are currently used in a CFD-based parametric study covering a broad range of operating conditions. Of particular interest for the accuracy of CFD predictions are the effects on pressure loss due to inlet boundary layer thickness (dependent on upstream development length), and the wall treatment for the turbulence equations (conventional wall functions vs. wall integration using a two-layer model). The experimental data are reassessed in the form of an error analysis, and are compared with CFD predictions for 18 computational cases. Grid-independence, grid spacing, and convergence requirements of the cases are discussed. Conclusions regarding the relative importance of the parametric variables will be presented.

Brankovic, Andreja↗

Coupled-Flow Simulation of HP-LP Turbines Has Resulted in Significant Fuel Savings

Our objective was to create a high-fidelity Navier-Stokes computer simulation of the flow through the turbines of a modern high-bypass-ratio turbofan engine. The simulation would have to capture the aerodynamic interactions between closely coupled high- and low-pressure turbines. A computer simulation of the flow in the GE90 turbofan engine's high-pressure (HP) and low-pressure (LP) turbines was created at GE Aircraft Engines under contract with the NASA Glenn Research Center. The three-dimensional steady-state computer simulation was performed using Glenn's average-passage approach named APNASA. The areas upstream and downstream of each blade row mutually interact with each other during engine operation. The embedded blade row operating conditions are modeled since the average passage equations in APNASA actively include the effects of the adjacent blade rows. The turbine airfoils, platforms, and casing are actively cooled by compressor bleed air. Hot gas leaks around the tips of rotors through labyrinth seals. The flow exiting the high work HP turbines is partially transonic and, therefore, has a strong shock system in the transition region. The simulation was done using 121 processors of a Silicon Graphics Origin 2000 (NAS 02K) cluster at the NASA Ames Research Center, with a parallel efficiency of 87 percent in 15 hr. The typical average-passage analysis mesh size per blade row was 280 by 45 by 55, or approx.700,000 grid points. The total number of blade rows was 18 for a combined HP and LP turbine system including the struts in the transition duct and exit guide vane, which contain 12.6 million grid points. Design cycle turnaround time requirements ran typically from 24 to 48 hr of wall clock time. The number of iterations for convergence was 10,000 at 8.03x10(exp -5) sec/iteration/grid point (NAS O2K). Parallel processing by up to 40 processors is required to meet the design cycle time constraints. This is the first-ever flow simulation of an HP and LP turbine. In addition, it includes the struts in the transition duct and exit guide vanes.

Veres, Joseph P.↗

A census of fish passage facilities at US hydropower developments across the conterminous United States

Hydropower provides reliable and secure electricity and contributes significantly to the flexibility and stability of the US electricity grid. Hydropower dams generally are aquatic barriers and hazards to migratory fish in rivers. Fish passage facilities mitigate risks from hydropower to migratory fish, but information on these facilities is incomplete for the conterminous United States (CONUS). Here, we present the first CONUS-scale dataset of fish passage facilities at US hydropower developments in over 30 years. The existence of fish passage facilities (presence or absence) was specified for 1909 hydropower features, 390 of which had at least one facility. Most features had a single passage facility that provided passage in only one direction, with downstream being more common than upstream passage. Bypasses and ladders accounted for 60 % of the fish passage facility types. While we documented 659 fish passage facilities across CONUS, facilities were most common in the New England, Pacific Northwest, Mid-Atlantic, and Great Lakes regions. In general, fish passage facilities were more common at features that were closer to the ocean, at lower elevations, and at shorter dams, but not related to installed electrical generation capacity. Hydrologic sub-basins containing salmonids also contained the largest number of hydropower features, but the proportion of features with passage was generally higher in sub-basins containing multiple migratory taxa. This census provides valuable information on existing fish passage mitigation and is a benchmark to gauge progress toward a modernized hydropower fleet that provides affordable, reliable energy while protecting fishery resources and river ecosystems.

13 HYDRO ENERGY↗

Regional Climate and Variability of the Summertime Continental United States in Reanalyses

Understanding climate variability at regional scales is an important for research and societal needs. Atmospheric retrospective-analyses (or reanalyses) integrate multitudes of observing systems with numerical models to produce continuous data that include variables not easily observed, if at all. The breadth of variables as well as observational influence included in reanalyses make them ideal for investigating climate variability. In this paper, we assess NASA s Modern Era Retrospective-analysis for Research and Application (MERRA) regional variability in North America, specifically the United States, in conjunction with current satellite data reanalyses. Emphasis is placed on summertime precipitation because 1) it is a difficult parameter to capture in the most difficult season, 2) significant observational resources exist to benchmark comparisons, and 3) accurate assessment of precipitation variability is crucial to a multitude of sectors and applications. Likewise, we have also begun to evaluate surface air temperature. While precipitation biases are identified, year to year variability of the precipitation variations, in many cases, are quite reasonable. However, some spurious long term trends and sudden shifts in the time series are also identified. In surface air temperature, analysis of station observations provides ERA Interim a clear overall advantage. However, in a number of regions, all the reanalyses are quite comparable in variability and trend. In other regions, significant precipitation biases may occur, which has implications for the ancillary process data in a reanalysis, such as surface fluxes. We also characterize the reanalyses ability to capture variability related to ENSO. In general, the summertime variations of precipitation in the reanalyses are more highly correlated (positively) to ENSO (using ENSO34) than are the observations. The Northwestern US shows the largest positive correlations to ENSO34, and reanalyses agree with that, and correlate highly with the gauge observations there. Additional evaluation of the data assimilation using the MERRA Gridded Innovations and Observations (GIO) data, which consists of the assimilated observations as well as forecast an analysis error fields. This work represents an initial evaluation of using the MERRA reanalysis to study regional climate variations of the United States, and identifying its applied limitations

Bosilovich, M G.↗

Enabling Reanalysis Research Using the Collaborative Reanalysis Technical Environment (CREATE)

Modern atmospheric and oceanic reanalysis are valuable assets for atmospheric research and climate monitoring (Kalnay et al. 1996). Now that most reanalysis records are more than 36 years long, the data have become more useful for climate modeling research (Dole et al. 2008). For investigators who need to use multiple reanalysis, a common challenge is that the data are distributed at various sites and often in different formats. The NASA CREATE system provides access to the data in one location in a standard format (one variable per file and standardized metadata in the CMIP5 style; see Table 1 for a list of the key acronyms used in this paper). The collection includes monthly and 6-hourly data from the seven major atmospheric reanalysis: CFSR (Saha et al. 2010), ERA-Interim (Dee et al. 2011), MERRA (Rienecker et al. 2011), MERRA-2 (Gelaro et al. 2017), JRA-25 (Onogi et al. 2007), JRA-55 (Kobayashi et al. 2014), and 20CRv2c (Compo et al. 2011). An ancillary portion of CREATE includes eight ocean reanalysis: NCEP CFSR, CMCC C-GLORSv5 (Storto et al. 2016), ECMWF ORAS4 (Balmaseda et al.2013), ECMWF ORAP5.0 (Zuo et al. 2015), University of Hamburg GECCO2 (Köhl 2015), GFDL ECDA (Zhang et al. 2007), NOAA GODAS (Saha et al. 2010), and MOVE/MRI.COM-G2i (Toyoda et al. 2016). The ocean state variables were similarly reformatted but were then also regridded onto a common horizontal and vertical grid. This approach facilitated the calculation of an ensemble average and spread that is also published alongside the native gridded data. A third reanalysis product is a global hourly 0.5° land surface air temperature dataset constructed by Wang and Zeng (2013). All three datasets are distributed through the ESGF in a format consistent with the CMIP style described by Cinquini et al. (2014).

Potter, Gerald L.↗

Algorithm and code development for unsteady three-dimensional Navier-Stokes equations

In the last two decades, there have been extensive developments in computational aerodynamics, which constitutes a major part of the general area of computational fluid dynamics. Such developments are essential to advance the understanding of the physics of complex flows, to complement expensive wind-tunnel tests, and to reduce the overall design cost of an aircraft, particularly in the area of aeroelasticity. Aeroelasticity plays an important role in the design and development of aircraft, particularly modern aircraft, which tend to be more flexible. Several phenomena that can be dangerous and limit the performance of an aircraft occur because of the interaction of the flow with flexible components. For example, an aircraft with highly swept wings may experience vortex-induced aeroelastic oscillations. Also, undesirable aeroelastic phenomena due to the presence and movement of shock waves occur in the transonic range. Aeroelastically critical phenomena, such as a low transonic flutter speed, have been known to occur through limited wind-tunnel tests and flight tests. Aeroelastic tests require extensive cost and risk. An aeroelastic wind-tunnel experiment is an order of magnitude more expensive than a parallel experiment involving only aerodynamics. By complementing the wind-tunnel experiments with numerical simulations the overall cost of the development of aircraft can be considerably reduced. In order to accurately compute aeroelastic phenomenon it is necessary to solve the unsteady Euler/Navier-Stokes equations simultaneously with the structural equations of motion. These equations accurately describe the flow phenomena for aeroelastic applications. At Ames a code, ENSAERO, is being developed for computing the unsteady aerodynamics and aeroelasticity of aircraft and it solves the Euler/Navier-Stokes equations. The purpose of this contract is to continue the algorithm enhancements of ENSAERO and to apply the code to complicated geometries. During the last year, the geometric capability of the code was extended to simulate transonic flows, a wing with oscillating control surface. Single-grid and zonal approaches were tested. For the zonal approach, a new interpolation technique was introduced. The key development of the algorithm was an interface treatment between moving zones for a control surface using the virtual-zone concept. The work performed during the period, 1 Apr. 1992 through 31 Mar. 1993 is summarized. Additional details on the various aspects of the study are given in the Appendices.

Obayashi, Shigeru↗

The Viability of Trajectory Analysis for Diagnosing Dynamical and Chemical Influences on Ozone Concentrations in the UTLS

The viability of trajectory analysis for diagnosing the interplay between chemistry and dynamics is investigated by comparing ozone mixing ratios modelled using air-parcel pathways to values observed along flight tracks during ATTREX (Airborne Tropical TRopopause EXperiment). Trajectories are initiated at the locations of ozone observations and tracked backward in time to their sources at termini of backward trajectories. The modelled values of ozone utilize 3-dimensional analysis fields from WACCM (Whole Atmosphere Community Climate Model) (a chemical-climate model with dynamical fields nudged towards MERRA (Modern-Era Retrospective Analysis and Research Applications) reanalysis) and ERA-interim (product of ECMWF - the European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts) to determine source mixing ratios with chemical production and loss terms derived from the ozone chemistry used in WACCM. A statistical base of modelled ozone is constructed with 6 trajectory platforms (adiabatic, diabatic, and kinematic forced by ERA-interim and MERRA), two chemical models (WACCM chemistry and no chemistry), and 4 trajectory lengths (5, 10, 20, and 30 days). Linear regression is employed to separate systematic errors from random errors and to characterize the impact of source mixing ratios, path length, vertical motion, and chemistry on modelled ozone errors. Errors in the analysis ozone fields are large, if not dominant, contributors to model error. Random errors are particularly large for point-by-point comparisons, however averaging over 800 km (75 minutes) flight segments substantially reduces random error and exposes systematic errors. Of the two analysis ozone data sets, WACCM, which incorporates detailed chemistry, provides the smaller systematic errors while ERA-interim, which has crude chemistry but assimilates observational data, has the smaller random errors. Of the different trajectory platforms, adiabatic calculations produce the smaller random errors (irrespective of the use of chemistry) but both vertical motion and chemistry are required to optimally reduce systematic errors. These results suggest that meaningful analysis of dynamical and chemical interactions that control ozone mixing ratios are viable on spatial scales larger than a few reanalysis grid spaces, that errors in the analyzed ozone data sets are large but not prohibitively so, and that vertical velocities and heating rates from reanalysis data, while problematic, contain useful information [on the ozone concentrations in the UTLS (Upper Troposphere/Lower Stratosphere)].

ozone↗

Assessing the suitability of sites near Pine Island Glacier for subglacial bedrock drilling aimed at detecting Holocene retreat–readvance

Abstract. Unambiguous identification of past episodes of ice sheet thinning below the modern surface and grounding line retreat inboard of present requires recovery and exposure dating of subglacial bedrock. Such efforts are needed to understand the significance and potential future reversibility of ongoing and projected change in Antarctica. Here we evaluate the suitability for subglacial bedrock drilling of sites in the Hudson Mountains, which are located in the Amundsen Sea sector of West Antarctica. We use an ice sheet model and field data – geological observations, glaciological observations and bedrock samples from nunataks, and ground-penetrating radar from subglacial ridges – to rate each site against four key criteria: (i) presence of ridges extending below the ice sheet, (ii) likelihood of increased exposure of those ridges if the grounding line was inboard of present, (iii) suitability of bedrock for drilling and geochemical analysis, and (iv) accessibility for aircraft and drilling operations. Our results demonstrate that although no site in the Hudson Mountains is perfect for this study when assessed against all criteria, the accessibility, N–S orientation and basaltic bedrock lithology of Winkie Nunatak's southernmost ridge (74.86° S, 99.77° W) make it a feasible site both for drilling and subsequent cosmogenic nuclide analysis. Furthermore, the ridge is strewn with glacial erratics at all elevations, providing valuable constraints on its early Holocene deglacial history. Based on our experiences during this study, we conclude with a series of recommendations for assessing site suitability for future bedrock drilling campaigns. We emphasise the importance of consulting a range of expertise prior to drilling and ensuring that sufficient field reconnaissance is undertaken (including obtaining detailed grids of radar survey data and bedrock samples).

58 GEOSCIENCES↗

High Performance Access to Archival Data Stored in HDF4 and HDF5 on Cloud Object Stores Without Reformatting the Files

Cloud computing offers numerous advantages for users of extensive Earth science data collections. These benefits encompass direct online access to data files and granules from any location, scalable access supporting parallel computing workflows, and flexible computing tools enabling innovative experimentation with processing techniques. However, older archival file formats designed for distinct computing systems hinder efficient access to decade-long time-series data when compared to data stored in modern cloud-optimized formats like Web Object Stores (WOS), exemplified by Amazon Web Services’ Simple Storage Service (S3). We describe DMR++ (Dataset Metadata Response plus plus), a technology facilitating efficient access to HDF5 (Hierarchical Data Format, version 5) and HDF4 files stored on WOS systems without requiring data reformatting. DMR++ achieves performance comparable to technologies like Zarr while preserving the original file structure, a substantial benefit considering the vast quantity of archival files held by organizations such as NASA. Moreover, DMR++ typically outperforms cloud-optimized versions of HDF5. Essentially an XML (Extensible Markup Language) document usually stored alongside the described data, DMR++ can also be generated on-the-fly but is generally created during data staging to the WOS. Archival files that use HDF4/5 often store large arrays of numerical data. The data in these files is often compressed, typically reducing their size by a factor of four or more. To achieve efficient access to portions of those arrays, they are 'chunked' into smaller sub-arrays, each individually compressed. The chunk size is a compromise, where spinning disks can efficiently access data in smaller chunks while S3 favors larger chunks. A simple optimization of aggregating smaller chunks that are stored adjacently, transferring them in a single access and then individually decompressing them will improve performance. NASA data pose an additional challenge: special Application Programmer Interface (API) libraries are often needed to compute some variables. These libraries are incompatible with WOS environments. Our solution involves storing computed values in the DMR++ document or a companion file, making them accessible like other variables and eliminating the need for specialized APIs. We outline specific optimizations for both satellite grid and swath data stored in HDF4-EOS2 (Earth Observing System).

James Gallagher↗

DASSH-F: Subchannel Based Thermal Analysis

The DASSH thermal analysis code is designed to rapidly allow a reactor design engineer to obtain flow rates requirements that satisfy peak temperature constraints in the domain. The advantage of using DASSH over a hand calculation is that it has a more rigorous treatment of the pin power distribution and coolant heat transfer within an assembly and between assemblies. The advantage of using DASSH over a conventional 3D subchannel code or a computational fluid dynamics code (CFD) is that it can obtain the desired solution in a matter of minutes in serial with minor computer memory needs. The DASSH methodology is virtually identical to SUPERENERGY-2 with additional functionalities taken from follow on work to SUPERENERGY-2 done at ANL in the 1980s. DASSH today is an integral component of the Argonne Fast Reactor analysis suite for reactor design work. DASSH obtains the power distribution from a coupled neutron-gamma heating calculation in GAMSOR (including DIF3D) at each time point of a companion fuel cycle analysis calculation with REBUS. The domain in DASSH assumes a hexagonal grid typical for fast reactors with much of the geometry information taken from the DIF3D model. DASSH assumes the assemblies that are loaded into each grid position are ducted to control the coolant flow. Considerable detail is given on the subchannel formulation of DASSH in this document. Much of the formulation and design of the code builds upon research done by previous authors with little new investigation. Thus the decisions made in developing the subchannel model used in DASSH have their origins over 50 years ago. Much of the heat transfer methodology in DASSH is built upon correlations for both the coolant mixing and heat transfer coefficients for pins and ducts. DASSH is thus not a rigorous treatment of a given problem, but a rapid assessment of the temperature field that has known limitations with respect to an experimental measurement or CFD calculation. The DASSH input and output are detailed along with usage of the software. The DASSH output provides tables of evaluated material properties and key coolant and pin temperature results. DASSH can create Python scripts that generate domain summary pictures. DASSH can also generate assembly temperature maps and VTK output files which allow the DASSH solution to be visualized. As the primary purpose of the DASSH software is to compute the coolant and fuel pin temperature distribution for a given model of a reactor, much of the output focus is giving the user quick summary tables needed to assess the performance of a given orifice flow specification. The present version of DASSH has a crude orifice search capability and an efficient orifice flow search capability. The flow search tries to meet user specified constraints for 1) peak 2-sigma clad midwall temperature, 2) peak coolant temperature, and 3) desired bulk outlet temperature. There are many development shortcomings in DASSH detailed in this document, but this version is functional for modern analysis needs. This document serves as the manual for the Fortran based DASSH software that was developed to replace the Python version of DASSH developed as part of the VTR program.

22 GENERAL STUDIES OF NUCLEAR REACTORS↗

Portable, Low-Cost, Column Carbon Dioxide and Methane Measurements for Validating Satellite Observations in Remote Locations

We present a low-cost (~$10K per instrument), portable solution to ground-based validation of satellite observations for difficult to reach locations with precisions of 1 ppm XCO2 and 10 ppb XCH4 for hourly data products. While Total Carbon Column Observing Network (TCCON) is the gold-standard for ground validation, there are locations where a ground column validation data point would be useful but conditions are not conducive to a permanent station. Examples include wetlands, thawing permafrost, the tropics, the Amazon, sub-Saharan Africa, as well as locations without a power grid or with geopolitical conflict. In addition, the low-cost and portability mean a geographical region can be studied in depth with multiple instruments. This passive, sun-pointing instrument is a miniaturized, laser heterodyne radiometer (mini-LHR) that has been under development by our team since 2009. It can be operated either in tandem with AERONET (a global network of 500 instruments that measure aerosol optical depth), or as a stand-alone instrument with a low-cost (~$3K), light-weight sun tracker. One of the main benefits of the mini-LHR is that it can quickly reach remote locations and provide a validation measurement even if there is limited or no infrastructure at the site. The instrument weighs ~10 lbs, fits into a backpack, and is powered by two folding solar panels and a battery pack. In clear conditions, the instrument can be set-up in under an hour. Portability means that mini-LHRs can be easily moved for side-by-side comparisons with other mini-LHRs and with TCCON which simplifies assessing instrument bias as well as accuracy. Like TCCON, the mini-LHR points directly at the sun with a narrow field-of-view and is its insensitivity to cloud and aerosol scattering that is common to nadir-pointing passive satellite approaches. Here we present a collection of sample data sets to demonstrate performance from locations that vary in climate, altitude, solar zenith angle, hours of sun per day, etc., as well as data from side-by-side TCCON comparisons. Retrievals of CO2 and CH4 were completed using the NASA/Goddard's Planetary Spectrum Generator (PSG) that incorporates meteorological inputs from Modern-Era Retrospective analysis for Research and Applications, Version 2 (MERRA-2) data set.

Wilson, Emily W.↗

Compactly‐Supported Nonstationary Kernels for Computing Exact Gaussian Processes on Big Data

The Gaussian process (GP) is a widely used method for analyzing large-scale data sets, including spatio-temporal measurements of nonlinear processes that are now commonplace in the environmental sciences. Traditional implementations of GPs involve stationary kernels (also termed covariance functions) that limit their flexibility, and exact methods for inference that prevent application to data sets with more than about 10,000 points. Modern approaches to address stationarity assumptions generally fail to accommodate large data sets, while all attempts to address scalability focus on approximating the Gaussian likelihood, which can involve subjectivity and lead to inaccuracies. In this work, we explicitly derive an alternative kernel that can discover and encode both sparsity and nonstationarity. We embed the kernel within a fully Bayesian GP model and leverage high-performance computing resources to enable the analysis of massive data sets. We demonstrate the favorable performance of our novel kernel relative to existing exact and approximate GP methods across a variety of synthetic data examples. Furthermore, we conduct space–time prediction based on more than 1 million measurements of daily maximum temperature and verify that our results outperform state-of-the-art methods in the Earth sciences. More broadly, having access to exact GPs that use ultra-scalable, sparsity-discovering, nonstationary kernels allows GP methods to truly compete with a wide variety of machine learning methods.

Gaussian processes↗

ZIPPER: Zonal isolation with plug and perf in enhanced reservoirs (Final Technical Report)

Modern multistage hydraulic stimulation treatments in cased wellbores require an effective method of isolating stages between treatments. A commonly used method in the oil and gas industry, plug and perf, is not currently viable for Enhanced Geothermal Systems (EGS) due to limitations of a critical component of the system – the ball drop (flow through) frac plug. Commercially available ball drop frac plugs do not meet the temperature or wellbore diameter requirements needed for use in EGS stimulations. For example, one particular drillable bridge and frac plug line from a large tool developer is only rated to 175 °C, while another is only available up to casing sizes of 5 ½” and rated up to 204 °C. We developed, prototyped, and field tested an upgraded ball drop frac plug to meet the requirements of EGS stimulations, including high-temperature (225+ °C), differential pressure (6000+ psi), and wellbore diameters ranging from 6 5/8” to 10 5/8”. We focused on designs and materials to optimize drillability, a key cost driver in plug and perf systems. The primary objective was to upgrade a drillable frac plug (currently rated to a temperature of 175°C and a pressure of 10,000 psi in 7” casing) to withstand temperatures of 225+°C. The upgraded frac plug was tested in the laboratory as well as in a field trial at a geothermal field. Engineering design and fabrication of the new plug was completed in 2019. Lab testing, validation, and qualification of the plug was completed in 2020. Ultimately the plug was successfully run during a multistage stimulation treatment in a fully horizontal EGS well in 2022. Prior to this project, a ball-drop, flow-through stimulation plug had never been used in a geothermal well. At the conclusion of this project, three different types of zonal isolation plugs were evaluated under full-scale operating conditions across 16 stimulation treatment stages in a first-of-a-kind EGS project called Project Red. This trial included the newly designed high-temperature, large-diameter plug. The plugs met all of 5 the technical requirements for commercial viability. Project Red has since been fully commissioned and is generating electricity on the Nevada grid - the first EGS project to successfully deliver power to the grid in the US.

15 GEOTHERMAL ENERGY↗