The 'Unusual' Evolution of Hurricane Arthur 2014: GOES-R and JPSS Satellite Proving Ground Perspective
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The average speed of tropical cyclone (TC) translation has slowed since the mid 20th century. Here we report that North Atlantic (NA) TCs have become increasingly likely to "stall" near the coast, spending many hours in confined regions. The stalling is driven not only by slower translation, but also by an increase in abrupt changes of direction. We compute residence-time distributions for TCs in confined coastal regions, and find that the tails of these distributions have increased significantly. We also show that TCs stalling over a region result in more rain on the region. Together, increased stalling and increased rain during stalls imply increased coastal rainfall from TCs, other factors equal. Although the data are sparse, we do in fact find a significant positive trend in coastal annual-mean rainfall 1948-2017 from TCs that stall, and we verify that this is due to increased stalling frequency. We make no attribution to anthropogenic climate forcing for the stalling or rainfall; the trends could be due to low frequency natural variability. Regardless of the cause, the significant increases in TC stalling frequency and high potential for associated increases in rainfall have very likely exacerbated TC hazards for coastal populations.
This paper will discuss the JPL radar and polarimetric radiometers and the results form the high wind observation.
The goal of this study was to analyze the recent record of Landsat satellite imagery to better understand spatial patterns and infer processes of change in marshland vegetation cover in coastal Louisiana wetlands. The study area covered subbasins of the western Barataria Basin near the Bayou Lafourche in southeastern Louisiana. Bayou Lafourche's estuaries have seen some of the highest rates of wetland conversion to open water of any coastal zone in the United States. The Landsat Normalized Difference Water Index (NDWI) was used in this study to map changes in land/water fractions at a 30-m pixel resolution between October 2005 (post-Katrina) and October 2018. Validation boat surveys were conducted in July 2020 to visually verify the presence or absence of (>1 m) emergent vegetation growing on marshlands across several subbasins, with photographs collected at more than 150 target locations along the route. Based on NDWI change, a total of 42.3 km2 was estimated to fall into the category of wetland loss since 2005. The leading subbasins for these recent wetland-to-water conversions made up most of the southwestern portion of the study area just north of Port Fourchon. The consistently low distance detected between the majority of wetland loss cells and locations of historical oil and gas wells implies that effects of well drilling and extraction have had a continuing negative impact on marshland degradation in the basin. Conversely, a total of 34 km2 was estimated to fall into the category of recent wetland gain, with much of the new vegetation growth verified to have been restored within several shoreline protection and dredging projects. It was concluded that the positive contributions made by such shoreline enhancement and marshland nourishment projects in Lafourche Parish to offset wetland losses over the past 15 years should not be underestimated.
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Tropical cyclone (TC) track forecasts have improved greatly in recent decades, while intensity forecasts have struggled to improve at the same rate. As a result, there has been a focus in literature to attempt to better understand the processes that lead to TC intensification and especially TC rapid intensification (RI). Lightning has been studied as a tool to determine changes in TC intensity, but studied thus far have had conflicting results.
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