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At least 343 records · Page 19

NASA’s first ground-based Galactic Cosmic Ray Simulator: Enabling a new era in space radiobiology research

With exciting new NASA plans for a sustainable return to the moon, astronauts will once again leave Earth’s protective magnetosphere only to endure higher levels of radiation from galactic cosmic radiation (GCR) and the possibility of a large solar particle event (SPE). Gateway, lunar landers, and surface habitats will be designed to protect crew against SPEs with vehicle optimization, storm shelter concepts, and/or active dosimetry; however, the ever penetrating GCR will continue to pose the most significant health risks especially as lunar missions increase in duration and as NASA sets its aspirations on Mars. The primary risks of concern include carcinogenesis, central nervous system (CNS) effects resulting in potential in-mission cognitive or behavioral impairment and/or late neurological disorders, degenerative tissue effects including circulatory and heart disease, as well as potential immune system decrements impacting multiple aspects of crew health. Characterization and mitigation of these risks requires a significant reduction in the large biological uncertainties of chronic (low-dose rate) heavy-ion exposures and the validation of countermeasures in a relevant space environment. Historically, most research on understanding space radiation-induced health risks has been performed using acute exposures of monoenergetic single-ion beams. However, the space radiation environment consists of a wide variety of ion species over a broad energy range. Using the fast beam switching and controls systems technology recently developed at the NASA Space Radiation Laboratory (NSRL) at Brookhaven National Laboratory, a new era in radiobiological research is possible. NASA has developed the “GCR Simulator” to generate a spectrum of ion beams that approximates the primary and secondary GCR field experienced at human organ locations within a deep-space vehicle. The majority of the dose is delivered from protons (approximately 65%–75%) and helium ions (approximately 10%–20%) with heavier ions (Z ≥ 3) contributing the remainder. The GCR simulator exposes state-of-the art cellular and animal model systems to 33 sequential beams including 4 proton energies plus degrader, 4 helium energies plus degrader, and the 5 heavy ions of C, O, Si, Ti, and Fe. A polyethylene degrader system is used with the 100 MeV/n H and He beams to provide a nearly continuous distribution of low-energy particles. A 500 mGy exposure, delivering doses from each of the 33 beams, requires approximately 75 minutes. To more closely simulate the low-dose rates found in space, sequential field exposures can be divided into daily fractions over 2 to 6 weeks, with individual beam fractions as low as 0.1 to 0.2 mGy. In the large beam configuration (60 × 60 cm 2 ), 54 special housing cages can accommodate 2 to 3 mice each for an approximately 75 min duration or 15 individually housed rats. On June 15, 2018, the NSRL made a significant achievement by completing the first operational run using the new GCR simulator. This paper discusses NASA’s innovative technology solution for a ground-based GCR simulator at the NSRL to accelerate our understanding and mitigation of health risks faced by astronauts. Ultimately, the GCR simulator will require validation across multiple radiogenic risks, endpoints, doses, and dose rates.

59 BASIC BIOLOGICAL SCIENCES↗

Stratigraphic Identification with Airborne Electromagnetic Methods at the Hanford Site, Washington

Stratigraphic units can influence the fate and transport of subsurface contaminants within groundwater. Units having coarse-grained sediments act as preferential flow pathways, and therefore can accelerate the transport of contaminants to reach human and ecological receptors. At legacy waste sites, detailed knowledge of subsurface stratigraphy can be used for effective monitoring and remediation planning to help minimize risk to human health and the environment. Airborne electromagnetic (AEM) methods can non-invasively provide information on kilometer-scale or larger subsurface stratigraphic features and fill informational gaps in directly sampled data from sparsely located boreholes. In this paper, we present inversion results of a 412 line-km frequency-domain AEM survey to delineate subsurface stratigraphic features at the Hanford Site, located in southeastern Washington State. The inversion was performed using a massively parallel 3D electromagnetic modeling and inversion code, where the modeling is based on solving frequency-domain Maxwell’s equations using an unstructured-mesh finite-element method and the inversion employs a Gauss-Newton optimization scheme. The results are compared to an underlying geologic framework model (GFM), built by interpolating contact depths of stratigraphic units interpreted from site borehole datasets. In areas with good borehole coverage, the inversion results show a good match with the GFM to a depth of about 60 m. Outside of these areas, the inversion results exhibit inconsistencies from the assumptions made to create the GFM, demonstrating that the AEM survey results can be used to improve the understanding of the geological conceptual model.

47 OTHER INSTRUMENTATION↗

Atmospheric emission of nanoplastics from sewer pipe repairs

Nanoplastic particles are inadequately characterized environmental pollutants with significant adverse effects on aquatic and atmospheric systems, causing drastic impacts on human health through inhalation, ingestion, and skin penetration. At present, it is explicitly assumed that environmental nanoplastics (EnvNP) are weathering fragments of microplastic or larger plastic debris discharged into terrestrial and aquatic environments, while atmospheric occurrence of EnvNP is solely attributed to aerosolization by wind and other mechanical forces. However, sources and emissions of unintended EnvNP are poorly understood and are therefore largely unaccounted for in various risk assessments. In this work, we show that large quantities of EnvNP may be directly emitted into the atmosphere as steam laden waste components discharged from a commonly used technology to repair sewer pipes in urban areas. Comprehensive chemical analysis of the discharged waste condensate reveals abundant presence of insoluble colloids, which after drying form solid organic particles with composition and viscosity consistent with EnvNP. We suggest that airborne emissions of EnvNP from these globally used sewer repair practices may be prevalent in highly populated urban areas. Airborne emissions of these EnvNP particles may have important implications on air quality and toxicological levels in large urban areas that need to be mitigated.

77 NANOSCIENCE AND NANOTECHNOLOGY↗

Escaping the fate of Sisyphus: assessing resistome hybridization baits for antimicrobial resistance gene capture

Finding, characterizing and monitoring reservoirs for antimicrobial resistance (AMR) is vital to protecting public health. Hybridization capture baits are an accurate, sensitive and cost-effective technique used to enrich and characterize DNA sequences of interest, including antimicrobial resistance genes (ARGs), in complex environmental samples. We demonstrate the continued utility of a set of 19 933 hybridization capture baits designed from the Comprehensive Antibiotic Resistance Database (CARD)v1.1.2 and Pathogenicity Island Database (PAIDB)v2.0, targeting 3565 unique nucleotide sequences that confer resistance. We demonstrate the efficiency of our bait set on a custom-made resistance mock community and complex environmental samples to increase the proportion of on-target reads as much as >200-fold. However, keeping pace with newly discovered ARGs poses a challenge when studying AMR, because novel ARGs are continually being identified and would not be included in bait sets designed prior to discovery. Here we provide imperative information on how our bait set performs against CARDv3.3.1, as well as a generalizable approach for deciding when and how to update hybridization capture bait sets. This research encapsulates the full life cycle of baits for hybridization capture of the resistome from design and validation (both in silico and in vitro) to utilization and forecasting updates and retirement.

59 BASIC BIOLOGICAL SCIENCES↗

A Novel Recombinant Influenza Virus Neuraminidase Vaccine Candidate Stabilized by a Measles Virus Phosphoprotein Tetramerization Domain Provides Robust Protection from Virus Challenge in the Mouse Model

Influenza virus infections remain a high risk to human health, causing up to 650,000 deaths worldwide every year, with an enormous burden on the health care system. Since currently available seasonal vaccines are only partially effective and often mismatched to the circulating strains, a broader protective influenza virus vaccine is needed.

59 BASIC BIOLOGICAL SCIENCES↗

Design, Deployment, and Characterization of the World’s First Flexible Large Power Transformer

GE Research and its partner Prolec GE have designed, built and deployed in the field the world’s first flexible power transformer. The flexible power transformer is a transmission class 3-phase autotransformer configurable in impedance and in voltage which allows it to serve as a universal spare for multiple units in a given fleet. However, the key innovation in this new concept is the online adjustable leakage impedance which allows the transformer to change its impedance without interrupting the transmission line operation. The flexible power transformer can be designed with up to three low voltage transmission class ratings and up to 12 impedance values changeable both online and offline. This report provides an overview of the design, manufacturing, testing, and commissioning of the 165kV, 60MVA prototype built including the results of the field performance validation tests. The prototype was specified in collaboration with Cooperative Energy, the utility host. It was designed and tested in the factory according to IEEE standard C57.12.00 and followed all protocols for transportation, installation, and commissioning of a power transformer. In addition to the prototype, a flexible protection system capable of automatically adjusting its settings upon the transformer impedance was also developed and deployed in the for testing and validation. On September 3, 2021 the prototype was energized in Cooperative Energy’s substation in Columbia, Mississippi to become the world’s first flexible power transformer in operation. Its performances and impact on the grid operation were demonstrated through different field tests. Results obtained confirm that the impedance of the flexible transformer can be varied under load through its full range, from 4.3% to 9.3%, without adverse impacts on the line operation, the protection system, the transformer stability and health condition. Results also proved that the flexible transformer is very effective in controlling power transfer through the line or load sharing between units operating in parallel. Indeed, it was proven that higher impedances decrease the thruput power of the transformer while lower impedances increase it. Up to 26MW was controllable on a line loading of 45MVA. It was also possible to demonstrate that the variation of the transformer impedance has no effect on the circulating current between units in parallel, except a minor transient during the impedance change. It was also proven that the flexible protection relay can update its protection settings automatically when the impedance change was detected. The prototype has operated continuously for more than 12 months now with a peak load exceeding 50MVA corresponding to >80% of its ONAN power rating. No alarm, trip or sign of failure has been reported by the utility. In addition to the development and deployment of the flexible transformer prototype, investigations were carried out on new nanodielectric fluids to replace the mineral oil used in power transformers with the goal of reducing their footprint and weight. The key parameters that were targeted for improvement included the breakdown voltage to reduce clearances between windings and tank hence the footprint; viscosity and thermal conductivity to increase the cooling efficiency and therefore to reduce the winding material. Several nanodielectric mixtures with mineral oil including with alumina (Al2O3), titania (TiO2) and Borum Nitrate (BN) with different surfactants have been analyzed and tested. Unfortunately, despite encouraging results no nanofluid candidate has been found viable to replace mineral oil. With the formulations tested, breakdown voltages are generally similar to mineral oil at lower particle contents and worse at higher particle contents. Viscosity appreciably increased at particles concertation over 2 wt% and thermal conductivity increased slightly at 5wt% and appears to be 10-15% higher at 10 wt% particle content. It is recommended to continue investigations to find solutions that can help increase the power density of future flexible power transformers. Flexible power transformers can significantly help the future power grid by providing more flexibility and resiliency. Indeed, by providing voltage and impedance flexibility, flexible power transformers reduce the need for multiple spares, hence inventory costs for utilities. With their online controllable impedance, they can provide support to the grid and help manage short-circuit currents, power flow, line congestion, and grid stability which will become more important with higher penetrations of intermittent renewable resources. During the field validation tests, it was demonstrated that up to 26MW was controllable on a line loading of 45MVA when the transformer impedance was varied from its minimum to its maximum range. Also, with the impedance range, the short-circuit currents could be reduced by up to 38% at the load side of the transformer. With its controllable impedance, flexible transformers can be used in future strategies of grid resilience to help better prepare the grid to face forecasted severe events including storms, heat waves and contingencies. The flexible power transformers can also find role in other applications including high voltage transmission cables such as offshore wind farms where solutions for energizing the cables and managing the reactive power are of critical importance. The designed flexible power transformer is now fully validated and ready for commercialization. Further analysis on the benefits of flexible power transformers for grid stability and short-circuit management including current limiting capability, reclosure and line restoration, control of inrush current, sizing of flexible AC components (FACTS) would help its rapid adoption by the industry.

24 POWER TRANSMISSION AND DISTRIBUTION↗

A Case Study of Tunable White LED Lighting with Networked Lighting Controls (Emory University Cognitive Empowerment Program)

Emory University and Georgia Institute of Technology (Georgia Tech) partnered to create the Charlie and Harriet Schaffer Cognitive Empowerment Program (CEP) facility in northeast Atlanta. Together with the funders they are building a program to help individuals experiencing mild cognitive impairment (MCI) to maintain their physical and cognitive health, and independence as long as possible. In addition to applying effective strategies and therapies, the two research groups are investigating the responses of the MCI members to treatments that involve acoustical conditions, exercise and movement, and lighting changes that may support retention or relearning of skills. Care partners and family members receive support and instruction to improve home and work life, promoting joy, purpose, and wellness in the family groups. The lighting system uses tunable-white LEDs, employing luminaires with both warm and cool-color emitters that can be dimmed separately to produce any white correlated color temperature (CCT) between 2700 K and 6500 K. All luminaires were dimmable to achieve subdued or lively surroundings for different treatments, time-of-day, and mood. A central networked digital control system was employed to allow tuning of multiple spaces together (for example, bright, cool morning light could be programmed for extra stimulation, or lighting in all spaces at the end of the day could be reduced in both light output and CCT to promote relaxation and not interfere with the melatonin cycle of occupants). Almost all spaces were equipped with individual room control of dimming and color temperature with touch screens to allow users to tune the lighting as desired, but each room’s controls could also be specially programmed through the server in case the research staff were investigating lighting settings on learning, for example. The server incorporates a timeclock, and it is able to send signals to switch off all lighting after occupancy hours, or enable occupancy sensors to control the lighting. The bulk of the construction work was completed in January 2020. It was clear from an initial walk-through that although the lighting system produced the expected high light level with low-glare qualities of light, that there were issues and inconsistencies to be resolved. These were noted in an initial punchlist visit and expected to be resolved when the tech representatives from the agency visited with the electrical contractor in the following few weeks. What followed was 2.5 years of identifying unexpected lighting performance in terms of light output, color, scheduling, and occupancy. This report documents the issues encountered in the effort to get the lighting and controls systems to operate as intended. It concludes with guidance for design professionals and manufacturers to help avoid problematic complexity in future projects.

42 ENGINEERING↗

Gamma-ray Spectroscopy in Low-Power Nuclear Research Reactors

Gamma-ray spectroscopy is an effective technique for radioactive material characterization, routine inventory verification, nuclear safeguards, health physics, and source search scenarios. Gamma-ray spectrometers typically cannot be operated in the immediate vicinity of nuclear reactors due to their high flux fields and their resulting inability to resolve individual pulses. Low-power reactor facilities offer the possibility to study reactor gamma-ray fields, a domain of experiments hitherto poorly explored. In this work, we present gamma-ray spectroscopy experiments performed with various detectors in two reactors: The EPFL zero-power research reactor CROCUS, and the neutron beam facility at the Ohio State University Research Reactor (OSURR). We employed inorganic scintillators (CeBr3), organic scintillators (trans-stilbene and organic glass), and high-purity germanium semiconductors (HPGe) to cover a range of typical—and new—instruments used in gamma-ray spectroscopy. The aim of this study is to provide a guideline for reactor users regarding detector performance, observed responses, and therefore available information in the reactor photon fields up to 2 MeV. The results indicate several future prospects, such as the online (at criticality) monitoring of fission products (like Xe, I, and La), dual-particle sensitive experiments, and code validation opportunities.

Pakari, Oskari V. (ORCID:0000000337048190)↗

DEVELOPMENT AND APPLICATION OF RISK ANALYSIS TOOLKIT FOR PLANT RESOURCE OPTIMIZATION

This paper presents the development of methods and tools that are being designed to optimize plant operations (e.g., maintenance/replacement schedules and optimal maintenance postures for plant components) in a manner that is more cost effective than current approaches and makes better use of available component health and cost data. These methods include both data- and model-based optimization methods. Model-based optimization methods directly include reliability and cost models to determine an optimal plant operational strategy. We consider gradient-based and evolutionary (based on genetic algorithms) optimization methods. The second class of methods target more specific use cases (e.g., project schedule optimization) and are not based on reliability models directly, but they require specific component reliability and cost data. This class of methods is based on variants of the knapsack problem with an aim to determine an optimal project schedule that maximizes the overall NPV. This paper also presents multi-objective methods designed to identify an optimal maintenance posture based on a Pareto frontier analysis. Rather than dictating the “right” tradeoff (i.e., identify the absolute best posture), we show how it is possible to perform a trade space exploration approach (i.e., identify value and costs of several postures and let the analysis account for desired value and cost metrics). This is performed by identifying maintenance postures that maximize value (e.g., system availability) and minimize operational costs, i.e., the Pareto frontier in a value-cost trade space. For all these methods we present detailed applicative examples that show their validity from a decision-making perspective.

97 - MATHEMATICS AND COMPUTING↗

Impact of Solid State Roadway Lighting on Melatonin in Humans

Introduction: In 2009, the World Health Organization identified vehicle crashes, both injury-related and fatal, as a public health hazard. Roadway lighting has long been used to reduce crashes and improve the safety of all road users. Ocular light exposure at night can suppress melatonin levels in humans. At sufficient light levels, all visible light wavelengths can elicit this response, but melatonin suppression is maximally sensitive to visible short wavelength light. With the conversion of roadway lighting to solid state sources that have a greater short wavelength spectrum than traditional sources, there is a potential negative health impact through suppressed melatonin levels to roadway users and those living close to the roadway. This paper presents data on the impact of outdoor roadway lighting on salivary melatonin in three cohorts of participants: drivers, pedestrians, and those experiencing light trespass in their homes. Methods: In an outdoor naturalistic roadway environment, healthy participants (N = 29) each being assigned to a cohort of either pedestrian, driver, or light trespass experiment, were exposed to five different solid state light sources with differing spectral emissions and one no lighting condition. Salivary melatonin measurements were made under an average roadway luminance of 1.0 cd/m2 (IES RP-18 Roadway Lighting Requirements for expressway roads) with a corneal melanopic Equivalent Daylight Illuminances (EDI) ranging from 0.22 to 0.86 lux. Results: The results indicate that compared to the no roadway lighting condition, the roadway light source spectral content did not significantly impact salivary melatonin levels in the participants in any of the cohorts. Conclusions: These data show that recommended levels of street lighting for expressway roads do not elicit an acute suppression of salivary melatonin and suggest that the health benefit of roadway lighting for traffic safety is not compromised by an acute effect on salivary melatonin.

60 APPLIED LIFE SCIENCES↗

Effect of Environmental and Socioeconomic Factors on Increased Early Childhood Blood Lead Levels: A Case Study in Chicago

This study analyzes the prevalence of elevated blood lead levels (BLLs) in children across Chicagoland zip codes from 2019 to 2021, linking them to socioeconomic, environmental, and racial factors. Wilcoxon tests and generalized additive model (GAM) regressions identified economic hardship, reflected in per capita income and unemployment rates, as a significant contributor to increased lead poisoning (LP) rates. Additionally, LP rates correlate with the average age of buildings, particularly post the 1978 lead paint ban, illustrating policy impacts on health outcomes. The study further explores the novel area of land surface temperature (LST) effects on LP, finding that higher nighttime LST, indicative of urban heat island effects, correlates with increased LP. This finding gains additional significance in the context of anthropogenic climate change. When these factors are combined with the ongoing expansion of urban territories, a significant risk exists of escalating LP rates on a global scale. Racial disparity analysis revealed that Black and Hispanic/Latino populations face higher LP rates, primarily due to unemployment and older housing. The study underscores the necessity for targeted public health strategies to address these disparities, emphasizing the need for interventions that cater to the unique challenges of these at-risk communities.

Lee, Jangho (ORCID:0000000289421092)↗

The Corrective Maintenance Paradigm Shift at Hanford's Tank Farms - 20077

Hanford's Tank Farms facilities have been used to safely store waste for over 70 years, with the first single-shell tanks being constructed in 1943. Tank Farm facilities consist of 149 single-shell tanks, 28 double-shell tanks, an evaporator facility, and wastewater treatment facilities. Tank Farm facilities are aging, with a tremendous corrective maintenance burden on the Tank Farm contractor. The mission of Tank Farm facilities is soon changing from waste storage to waste staging for the Hanford Waste Treatment and Immobilization Plant (WTP). WTP operations will demand a significant increase in Tank Farm facility operations, in which corrective maintenance outage windows will shrink drastically. This realization has forced the Tank Farm contractor to consider a paradigm shift in Tank Farm facilities Maintenance planning, and the use of reliability Engineering tools. The Tank Farm Production Operations Engineering Cognizant System Engineering (CSE) organization has led the way in motivating this paradigm shift. This shift has been realized through the use of: 1) technical exchange with other Department of Energy (DOE) contractors to develop improvements in the CSE program, 2) a shift from the use of lagging to leading system health indicators, and 3) a Plant Health Committee to unite Engineering, Operations, and Maintenance personnel toward a productive maintenance strategy. The CSE organization has held several technical exchanges with other DOE contractors to discuss CSE concepts, and how to better maintain aging infrastructure. The technical exchange with other contractors has greatly reduced the time required to make improvements in the Tank Farm CSE program. Other DOE contractors have already faced issues surrounding aging infrastructure, and have vast experience in improving the reliability and usable life of structures and components in nuclear facilities. The past CSE program used lagging health indicators to determine the health of systems. The key lagging indicator used to determine system health was availability, which is the percentage of time that a facility was ready for operation compared to the time the facility was demanded for operation. Availability was a good indicator of health in the waste storage mission of Tank Farms, where safe storage was the most important function of the facility, and where maintenance outage windows were typically long-duration. In current and future operations, outage windows are reducing, resulting in the need for much more reliable systems. Systems that have had high availability may suddenly become inoperable due to a failed component or sub-system. In several instances, the use of availability as an indicator of system health failed to predict system/equipment failure before its occurrence. In discussions with other DOE contractors, a set of reliability tools, including leading indicators of health, has been implemented in the CSE program. This primarily involves the use of failure modes and effects analysis and the study of equipment failure to develop system monitoring plans that focus on trending data to detect oncoming equipment failure ahead of time. In addition, the use of a Plant Health Committee has added significantly to the paradigm shift from a corrective maintenance philosophy to the use of predictive and preventive maintenance. The Plant Health Committee is a chartered team consisting of Engineering, Operations, and Maintenance personnel. CSEs use this forum to present the results of their performance monitoring, including the presentation of health via leading health indicators. The most positive aspect of this committee is the communication that it creates within these critical organizations. The Operations and Maintenance organization benefit from focusing maintenance on the reliability-centered focus provided by Engineering. Engineering benefits from the operational experience of the Operations organization and from the failure data that can be provided by Maintenance personnel. The continued use of the Plant Health Committee is expected to further decrease maintenance outage times, in better support of oncoming 24/7 operations. (authors)

12 MANAGEMENT OF RADIOACTIVE AND NON-RADIOACTIVE W↗

Comparative RNA-Seq transcriptome analyses reveal dynamic time-dependent effects of 56 Fe, 16 O, and 28 Si irradiation on the induction of murine hepatocellular carcinoma

One of the health risks posed to astronauts during deep space flights is exposure to high charge, high-energy (HZE) ions (Z > 13), which can lead to the induction of hepatocellular carcinoma (HCC). However, little is known on the molecular mechanisms of HZE irradiation-induced HCC. We performed comparative RNA-Seq transcriptomic analyses to assess the carcinogenic effects of 600 MeV/n 56 Fe (0.2 Gy), 1 GeV/n 16 O (0.2 Gy), and 350 MeV/n 28 Si (0.2 Gy) ions in a mouse model for irradiation-induced HCC. C3H/HeNCrl mice were subjected to total body irradiation to simulate space environment HZE-irradiation, and liver tissues were extracted at five different time points post-irradiation to investigate the time-dependent carcinogenic response at the transcriptomic level. Our data demonstrated a clear difference in the biological effects of these HZE ions, particularly immunological, such as Acute Phase Response Signaling, B Cell Receptor Signaling, IL-8 Signaling, and ROS Production in Macrophages. Also seen in this study were novel unannotated transcripts that were significantly affected by HZE. To investigate the biological functions of these novel transcripts, we used a machine learning technique known as self-organizing maps (SOMs) to characterize the transcriptome expression profiles of 60 samples (45 HZE-irradiated, 15 non-irradiated control) from liver tissues. A handful of localized modules in the maps emerged as groups of co-regulated and co-expressed transcripts. The functional context of these modules was discovered using overrepresentation analysis. We found that these spots typically contained enriched populations of transcripts related to specific immunological molecular processes (e.g., Acute Phase Response Signaling, B Cell Receptor Signaling, IL-3 Signaling), and RNA Transcription/Expression. A large number of transcripts were found differentially expressed post-HZE irradiation. These results provide valuable information for uncovering the differences in molecular mechanisms underlying HZE specific induced HCC carcinogenesis. Additionally, a handful of novel differentially expressed unannotated transcripts were discovered for each HZE ion. Taken together, these findings may provide a better understanding of biological mechanisms underlying risks for HCC after HZE irradiation and may also have important implications for the discovery of potential countermeasures against and identification of biomarkers for HZE-induced HCC.

59 BASIC BIOLOGICAL SCIENCES↗

Including frameworks of public health ethics in computational modelling of infectious disease interventions

Decisions on public health interventions to control infectious diseases are often informed by computational models. Interpreting the predicted outcomes of a public health decision requires not only high-quality modelling but also an ethical framework for assessing the benefits and harms associated with different options. The design and specification of ethical frameworks matured independently of computational modelling, so many values recognized as important for ethical decision-making are missing from computational models. We demonstrate a proof-of-concept approach to incorporate multiple public health values into the evaluation of a simple computational model for vaccination against a pathogen such as SARS-CoV-2. By examining a bounded space of alternative prioritizations of three values relevant to public health ethics (aggregate clinical burden, equity in clinical burden, equity in adverse effects from vaccination), we identify value trade-offs, where the outcomes of optimal strategies differ depending on the ethical framework. This work demonstrates an approach to incorporating diverse values into decision criteria used to evaluate outcomes of models of infectious disease interventions.

"Mathematical Biology"↗

Detection of significant antiviral drug effects on COVID-19 with reasonable sample sizes in randomized controlled trials: A modeling study

Development of an effective antiviral drug for Coronavirus Disease 2019 (COVID-19) is a global health priority. Although several candidate drugs have been identified through in vitro and in vivo models, consistent and compelling evidence from clinical studies is limited. The lack of evidence from clinical trials may stem in part from the imperfect design of the trials. We investigated how clinical trials for antivirals need to be designed, especially focusing on the sample size in randomized controlled trials. A modeling study was conducted to help understand the reasons behind inconsistent clinical trial findings and to design better clinical trials. We first analyzed longitudinal viral load data for Severe Acute Respiratory Syndrome Coronavirus 2 (SARS-CoV-2) without antiviral treatment by use of a within-host virus dynamics model. The fitted viral load was categorized into 3 different groups by a clustering approach. Comparison of the estimated parameters showed that the 3 distinct groups were characterized by different virus decay rates (p-value < 0.001). The mean decay rates were 1.17 d -1 (95% CI: 1.06 to 1.27 d -1 ), 0.777 d -1 (0.716 to 0.838 d -1 ), and 0.450 d -1 (0.378 to 0.522 d -1 ) for the 3 groups, respectively. Such heterogeneity in virus dynamics could be a confounding variable if it is associated with treatment allocation in compassionate use programs (i.e., observational studies). Subsequently, we mimicked randomized controlled trials of antivirals by simulation. An antiviral effect causing a 95% to 99% reduction in viral replication was added to the model. To be realistic, we assumed that randomization and treatment are initiated with some time lag after symptom onset. Using the duration of virus shedding as an outcome, the sample size to detect a statistically significant mean difference between the treatment and placebo groups (1:1 allocation) was 13,603 and 11,670 (when the antiviral effect was 95% and 99%, respectively) per group if all patients are enrolled regardless of timing of randomization. The sample size was reduced to 584 and 458 (when the antiviral effect was 95% and 99%, respectively) if only patients who are treated within 1 day of symptom onset are enrolled. We confirmed the sample size was similarly reduced when using cumulative viral load in log scale as an outcome. We used a conventional virus dynamics model, which may not fully reflect the detailed mechanisms of viral dynamics of SARS-CoV-2. The model needs to be calibrated in terms of both parameter settings and model structure, which would yield more reliable sample size calculation. In this study, we found that estimated association in observational studies can be biased due to large heterogeneity in viral dynamics among infected individuals, and statistically significant effect in randomized controlled trials may be difficult to be detected due to small sample size. The sample size can be dramatically reduced by recruiting patients immediately after developing symptoms. We believe this is the first study investigated the study design of clinical trials for antiviral treatment using the viral dynamics model.

60 APPLIED LIFE SCIENCES↗

Working with Trusted Local Organizations to Address Impediments to Cost-Effective and Holistic Building Performance Improvements

Commercial buildings are at the heart of any community. Investments towards the health and performance of community buildings can support a wide range of critical community and individual benefits; however, many buildings have been left behind in these investments due to a spectrum of barriers, especially those located in underserved communities. This portfolio of work stands with the intent that if we can create solutions to support the hardest-to-reach commercial buildings in gaining equitable access to energy efficiency, zero energy, and zero carbon solutions, we can support all commercial buildings with these goals. To understand success and barriers, and identify new, innovative, and impactful solutions, NREL is taking a four-part approach to: 1. Develop a methodology for defining affordability in commercial buildings and understand its impact on underserved communities, 2. Work with trusted, local organizations to address barriers that impede access to cost-effective, holistic, building performance improvements, 3. Support minority-focused developer incubator programs for, and within, underserved communities, and 4. Identify overlapping value streams that support underserved community and utility needs.

barriers↗

Comprehensive compartmental model and calibration algorithm for the study of clinical implications of the population-level spread of COVID-19: a study protocol

The complex dynamics of the coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) pandemic has made obtaining reliable long-term forecasts of the disease progression difficult. Simple mechanistic models with deterministic parameters are useful for short-term predictions but have ultimately been unsuccessful in extrapolating the trajectory of the pandemic because of unmodelled dynamics and the unrealistic level of certainty that is assumed in the predictions. We propose a 22-compartment epidemiological model that includes compartments not previously considered concurrently, to account for the effects of vaccination, asymptomatic individuals, inadequate access to hospital care, post-acute COVID-19 and recovery with long-term health complications. Additionally, new connections between compartments introduce new dynamics to the system and provide a framework to study the sensitivity of model outputs to several concurrent effects, including temporary immunity, vaccination rate and vaccine effectiveness. Subject to data availability for a given region, we discuss a means by which population demographics (age, comorbidity, socioeconomic status, sex and geographical location) and clinically relevant information (different variants, different vaccines) can be incorporated within the 22-compartment framework. Considering a probabilistic interpretation of the parameters allows the model's predictions to reflect the current state of uncertainty about the model parameters and model states. We propose the use of a sparse Bayesian learning algorithm for parameter calibration and model selection. This methodology considers a combination of prescribed parameter prior distributions for parameters that are known to be essential to the modelled dynamics and automatic relevance determination priors for parameters whose relevance is questionable. This is useful as it helps prevent overfitting the available epidemiological data when calibrating the parameters of the proposed model. Population-level administrative health data will serve as partial observations of the model states.

59 BASIC BIOLOGICAL SCIENCES↗

2018 Annual Site Environmental Report

Los Alamos National Laboratory’s (the Laboratory’s) annual site environmental reports are prepared annually by the Laboratory’s environmental organizations, as required by U.S. Department of Energy Order 231.1B, Administrative Change 1, Environment, Safety, and Health Reporting, and Order 458.1, Administrative Change 3, Radiation Protection of the Public and the Environment. The following chapters in this report discuss our success in complying with environmental laws, regulations, and orders (Chapter 2, Compliance Summary); how we manage the Laboratory’s environmental performance (Chapter 3, Environmental Programs); how we monitor for air emissions of radioactive materials and climate conditions (Chapter 4, Air Quality); how we monitor for effects of Laboratory operations on groundwater quality (Chapter 5, Groundwater Monitoring); how we monitor the movement of chemicals and radionuclides by storm water runoff and the levels of chemicals and radionuclides in deposited sediment (Chapter 6, Watershed Quality); how we monitor for the presence, levels, and effects of chemicals and radionuclides in plants, animals, soil, and vegetation (Chapter 7, Ecosystem Health); and finally, what radionuclide dose or risk from chemical exposure members of the public may experience as a result of Laboratory operations (Chapter 8, Public Dose and Risk Assessment). This report follows plain language guidelines, as required for federal agencies by the Plain Language Act of 2010. More information about plain language can be found at http://www.plainlanguage.gov/index.cfm. You will notice we have substantially reduced the use of acronyms and abbreviations and are using active voice and personal pronouns. We hope you find this report useful. If you have suggestions for improving this report, additional questions, or want a copy of this report, please contact us at envoutreach@lanl.gov, or call the Communications Office at 505-665-7000. This report, its supplemental tables, and the 2018 Annual Site Environmental Report Summary are available at http://www.lanl.gov/environment/environmental-report.php. Note: This document has been revised since it was initially published on September 23, 2019. The revisions included corrections to figure and table references, changes in heading levels, adding blank pages where appropriate, and changes of an editorial nature.

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