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At least 343 records · Page 19

Arctic sea-ice loss drives a strong regional atmospheric response over the North Pacific and North Atlantic on decadal scales

Previous studies have suggested that Arctic sea-ice loss can have a profound influence on atmospheric circulation far away from the Arctic. However, there is little scientific consensus on the features of these remote responses, with the opposite impacts reported. Here we present a multi-model analysis of the decadal climate response to Arctic sea-ice loss using state-of-the-art energy conserving methodologies to isolate the impacts of sea-ice decline. We observe weakening of the Aleutian Low and development of a geopotential ridge in the North Pacific, associated with drier winter conditions over the southwest United States. Over the Atlantic, a negative NAO-like response drives wetter winter conditions across the western Mediterranean. These decadal-scale impacts substantially differ from reported centennial-scale responses to Arctic sea-ice loss simulated using non-energy conserving methodologies. Factors such as the timescale of the response and methodologies used to isolate the impacts of disappearing sea-ice cover should be carefully considered when consolidating scientific understanding on the future impacts of changing Arctic.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

Phase equilibrium of liquid water and hexagonal ice from enhanced sampling molecular dynamics simulations

We study the phase equilibrium between liquid water and ice Ih modeled by the TIP4P/Ice interatomic potential using enhanced sampling molecular dynamics simulations. Our approach is based on the calculation of ice Ih-liquid free energy differences from simulations that visit reversibly both phases. The reversible interconversion is achieved by introducing a static bias potential as a function of an order parameter. The order parameter was tailored to crystallize the hexagonal diamond structure of oxygen in ice Ih. Furthermore, we analyze the effect of the system size on the ice Ih-liquid free energy differences, and we obtain a melting temperature of 270 K in the thermodynamic limit. This result is in agreement with estimates from thermodynamic integration (272 K) and coexistence simulations (270 K). Since the order parameter does not include information about the coordinates of the protons, the spontaneously formed solid configurations contain proton disorder as expected for ice Ih.

37 INORGANIC, ORGANIC, PHYSICAL, AND ANALYTICAL CH↗

Artificial spin ice: Paths forward

Artificial spin ice systems are lithographically prepared arrays of interacting nanoscale magnetic moments with collective behavior resulting from the chosen array geometry. These many-body systems are unusual in that their simple constituent elements can be configured to design their interactions with exquisite control. They can then be probed experimentally over a remarkably large range of time scales and length scales, including imaging of the individual moments. The study of artificial spin ice has broadened well beyond the original focus on systems with connection to spin ice and ice models, and now the term is used in reference to many other structures that exhibit a much wider range of physical phenomena. Here in this perspective, we review progress in the field of artificial spin ice since its inception more than a decade ago. We then discuss prospects for future directions – continuing the exploration of nanomagnetism, statistical spin models, and the potential for technological devices.

75 CONDENSED MATTER PHYSICS, SUPERCONDUCTIVITY AND↗

Melting curves of ice polymorphs in the vicinity of the liquid–liquid critical point

The possible existence of a liquid–liquid critical point in deeply supercooled water has been a subject of debate due to the challenges associated with providing definitive experimental evidence. The pioneering work by Mishima and Stanley [Nature 392, 164–168 (1998)] sought to shed light on this problem by studying the melting curves of different ice polymorphs and their metastable continuation in the vicinity of the expected liquid–liquid transition and its associated critical point. Based on the continuous or discontinuous changes in the slope of the melting curves, Mishima [Phys. Rev. Lett. 85, 334 (2000)] suggested that the liquid–liquid critical point lies between the melting curves of ice III and ice V. Herein we explore this conjecture using molecular dynamics simulations with a machine learning model based on ab initio quantum-mechanical calculations. We study the melting curves of ices III, IV, V, VI, and XIII and find that all of them are supercritical and do not intersect the liquid–liquid transition locus. We also find a pronounced, yet continuous, change in the slope of the melting lines upon crossing of the liquid locus of maximum compressibility. Finally, we analyze the literature in light of our findings and conclude that the scenario in which the melting curves are supercritical is favored by the most recent computational and experimental evidence. Although the preponderance of evidence is consistent with the existence of a second critical point in water, the behavior of ice polymorph melting lines does not provide strong evidence in support of this viewpoint, according to our calculations.

37 INORGANIC, ORGANIC, PHYSICAL, AND ANALYTICAL CH↗

Influence of controlled disorder on the dipolar spin-ice state of Ho-based pyrochlores

Pyrochlore magnets of the form 𝑅 2 ⁢𝐵 2 ⁢O 7 , in which rare-earth ions on the 𝑅 site form a three-dimensional network of corner-sharing tetrahedra, provide a canonical setting for geometrical frustration. Ho-based pyrochlores host a dipolar spin-ice ground state, characterized by Ising moments constrained by the ice rules and elementary excitations analogous to magnetic monopoles. Here, in this work, we examine how controlled chemical disorder influences this state by introducing site mixing on the nonmagnetic 𝐵 site in two compounds. Ho 2⁢ GaSbO 7 contains only Ga 3+ /Sb 5+ charge disorder, whereas Ho 2 ⁢ScSbO 7 exhibits both charge and substantial size disorder arising from the large ionic-radius mismatch between Sc 3+ and Sb 5+ . Although both materials retain the pyrochlore structure, neutron-scattering measurements reveal a reduced correlation length for the 𝑅/𝐵-site cation ordering and enhanced local structural distortions in Ho 2 ⁢ScSbO 7 . Despite these structural differences, bulk thermodynamic measurements and magnetic diffuse scattering demonstrate that both systems exhibit the defining signatures of a dipolar spin-ice state. Low-energy inelastic neutron spectroscopy further uncovers broad magnetic excitations that develop within the dipolar spin-ice regime, a feature absent in pristine Ho pyrochlores and indicative of disorder-induced splitting of the non-Kramers ground-state doublet. Together, these results show that controlled disorder generates tunable transverse-field-driven quantum fluctuations in Ho-based pyrochlores, although the dipolar spin-ice state is remarkably robust to this disorder.

magnetic anisotropy↗

Statistical Generation of Ocean Forcing With Spatiotemporal Variability for Ice Sheet Models

Melting of ice at the base of floating ice shelves that fringe the Antarctic ice sheet has been identified as a significant source of uncertainty in sea level rise projections. Part of this uncertainty derives from chaotic internal variability of the coupled ocean-atmosphere system. For numerical ice sheet model projections, this uncertainty has not previously been quantified because of the prohibitive computational expense of running large climate model ensembles. Here, we develop and demonstrate a technique that generates independent realizations of internal climate variability from a single climate model simulation. Building on previous developments in model emulation, this technique uses empirical orthogonal function decomposition and Fourier-phase randomization to generate statistically consistent realizations of spatiotemporal variability fields for the target climate variable. The method facilitates efficient sampling of a wide range of climate trajectories, which can also be incorporated within ice sheet or other physical models to represent feedback processes.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

FROSch Preconditioners for Land Ice Simulations of Greenland and Antarctica

Numerical simulations of Greenland and Antarctic ice sheets involve the solution of large-scale highly nonlinear systems of equations on complex shallow geometries. This work is concerned with the construction of Schwarz preconditioners for the solution of the associated tangent problems, which are challenging for solvers mainly because of the strong anisotropy of the meshes and wildly changing boundary conditions that can lead to poorly constrained problems on large portions of the domain. In this study, two-level generalized Dryja--Smith--Widlund (GDSW)--type Schwarz preconditioners are applied to different land ice problems, i.e., a velocity problem, a temperature problem, as well as the coupling of the former two problems. We employ the message passing interface (MPI)--parallel implementation of multilevel Schwarz preconditioners provided by the package FROSch (fast and robust Schwarz) from the Trilinos library. The strength of the proposed preconditioner is that it yields out-of-the-box scalable and robust preconditioners for the single physics problems. To the best of our knowledge, this is the first time two-level Schwarz preconditioners have been applied to the ice sheet problem and a scalable preconditioner has been used for the coupled problem. The preconditioner for the coupled problem differs from previous monolithic GDSW preconditioners in the sense that decoupled extension operators are used to compute the values in the interior of the subdomains. Additionally, several approaches for improving the performance, such as reuse strategies and shared memory OpenMP parallelization, are explored. In our numerical study we target both uniform meshes of varying resolution for the Antarctic ice sheet as well as nonuniform meshes for the Greenland ice sheet. We present several weak and strong scaling studies confirming the robustness of the approach and the parallel scalability of the FROSch implementation. Among the highlights of the numerical results are a weak scaling study for up to 32,K processor cores (8,K MPI ranks and 4 OpenMP threads) and 566,M degrees of freedom for the velocity problem as well as a strong scaling study for up to 4,K processor cores (and MPI ranks) and 68,M degrees of freedom for the coupled problem.

97 MATHEMATICS AND COMPUTING↗

The effect of atmospheric transmissivity on model and observational estimates of the sea ice albedo feedback

The sea-ice-albedo feedback (SIAF) is the product of the ice sensitivity (IS) – how much the surface albedo in sea-ice regions changes as the planet warms– and the radiative sensitivity (RS) – how much the top of atmosphere radiation changes as the surface albedo changes. We demonstrate that the RS calculated from radiative kernels in climate models is reproduced from calculations using the “approximate partial radiative perturbation” method that uses the climatological radiative fluxes at the top of atmosphere and the assumption that the atmosphere is isotropic to shortwave radiation. This method facilitates the comparison of RS from satellite-based estimates of climatological radiative fluxes with RS estimates across a full suite of coupled climate models and, thus, allows model evaluation of a quantity important in characterizing the climate impact of sea ice concentration changes. The satellite based RS is within the model range of RS that differs by a factor of two across climate models in both the Arctic and Southern Ocean. Observed trends in Arctic sea ice are used to estimate IS which, in conjunction with the satellite-based RS yields an SIAF of 0.16 ± 0.04 W m-2 K-1. This Arctic SIAF estimate suggests a modest amplification of future global surface temperature change by approximately 14% relative to a climate system with no SIAF. We calculate the global albedo feedback in climate models using model specific RS and IS and find a model mean feedback parameter of 0.37 W m-2 K-1 which is 40% larger than the IPCC AR5 estimate based on using RS calculated from radiative kernel calculations in a single climate model.

Arctic, Antarctic, climate change, Climate & Earth↗

Separating the Influences of Low-Latitude Warming and Sea Ice Loss on Northern Hemisphere Climate Change

Abstract Analyzing a multimodel ensemble of coupled climate model simulations forced with Arctic sea ice loss using a two-parameter pattern-scaling technique to remove the cross-coupling between low- and high-latitude responses, the sensitivity to high-latitude sea ice loss is isolated and contrasted to the sensitivity to low-latitude warming. Despite some differences in experimental design, the Northern Hemisphere near-surface atmospheric sensitivity to sea ice loss is found to be robust across models in the cold season; however, a larger intermodel spread is found at the surface in boreal summer, and in the free tropospheric circulation. In contrast, the sensitivity to low-latitude warming is most robust in the free troposphere and in the warm season, with more intermodel spread in the surface ocean and surface heat flux over the Northern Hemisphere. The robust signals associated with sea ice loss include upward turbulent and longwave heat fluxes where sea ice is lost, warming and freshening of the Arctic Ocean, warming of the eastern North Pacific Ocean relative to the western North Pacific with upward turbulent heat fluxes in the Kuroshio Extension, and salinification of the shallow shelf seas of the Arctic Ocean alongside freshening in the subpolar North Atlantic Ocean. In contrast, the robust signals associated with low-latitude warming include intensified ocean warming and upward latent heat fluxes near the western boundary currents, freshening of the Pacific Ocean, salinification of the North Atlantic, and downward sensible and longwave fluxes over the ocean.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

Sea Ice and Cloud Processes Mediating Compensation between Atmospheric and Oceanic Meridional Heat Transports across the CMIP6 Preindustrial Control Experiment

Abstract Bjerknes compensation (BJC) refers to the anticorrelation observed between atmospheric and oceanic heat transport (AHT/OHT) variability, particularly on decadal to longer time scales that may be important to the predictability of the climate system. This study investigates the spread in BJC across fully coupled simulations of phase 6 of the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project (CMIP6) and critical processes (particularly related to sea ice and clouds) that may contribute to that spread. BJC on decadal to longer time scales is confirmed across all the simulations evaluated, and it is strongest in the Northern Hemisphere (NH) between 60° and 70°N. At these latitudes, BJC appears to be primarily driven by the exchange of turbulent fluxes (sensible and latent) in the Greenland, Iceland, and Barents Seas. Metrics to break down how sea ice and clouds uniquely modify the radiative balance of the polar atmosphere during anomalous OHT events are presented. These metrics quantify the impacts of sea ice and clouds on surface and top of atmosphere (latent, sensible, longwave, and shortwave radiative) energy fluxes. Cloud responses tend to counter the clear sky impacts over the Marginal Ice Zone (MIZ). It is further shown that the degree of BJC present in a simulation at high latitudes is heavily influenced by the sensitivity of the sea ice to OHT, which is most influential over the MIZ. These results are qualitatively robust across models and explain the intermodel spread in NH BJC in the preindustrial control experiment.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

Characteristics of Ice Cloud–Precipitation of Warm Season Mesoscale Convective Systems over the Great Plains

Abstract In this study, the mesoscale convective systems (MCSs) are tracked using high-resolution radar and satellite observations over the U.S. Great Plains during April–August from 2010 to 2012. The spatiotemporal variability of MCS precipitation is then characterized using the Stage IV product. We found that the spatial variability and nocturnal peaks of MCS precipitation are primarily driven by the MCS occurrence rather than the precipitation intensity. The tracked MCSs are further classified into convective core (CC), stratiform rain (SR), and anvil clouds regions. The spatial variability and diurnal cycle of precipitation in the SR regions of MCSs are not as significant as those of MCS precipitation. In the SR regions, the high-resolution, long-term ice cloud microphysical properties [ice water content (IWC) and ice water paths (IWPs)] are provided. The IWCs generally decrease with height. Spatially, the IWC, IWP, and precipitation are all higher over the southern Great Plains than over the northern Great Plains. Seasonally, those ice and precipitation properties are all higher in summer than in spring. Comparing the peak timings of MCS precipitation and IWPs from the diurnal cycles and their composite evolutions, it is found that when using the peak timing of IWPSR as a reference, the heaviest precipitation in the MCS convective core occurs earlier, while the strongest SR precipitation occurs later. The shift of peak timings could be explained by the stratiform precipitation formation process. The IWP and precipitation relationships are different at MCS genesis, mature, and decay stages. The relationships and the transition processes from ice particles to precipitation also depend on the low-level humidity.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

Tethered balloon-borne profile measurements of atmospheric properties in the cloudy atmospheric boundary layer over the Arctic sea ice during MOSAiC: Overview and first results

The tethered balloon-borne measurement system BELUGA (Balloon-bornE moduLar Utility for profilinG the lower Atmosphere) was deployed over the Arctic sea ice for 4 weeks in summer 2020 as part of the Multidisciplinary drifting Observatory for the Study of Arctic Climate expedition. Using BELUGA, vertical profiles of dynamic, thermodynamic, aerosol particle, cloud, radiation, and turbulence properties were measured from the ground up to a height of 1,500 m. BELUGA was operated during an anomalously warm period with frequent liquid water clouds and variable sea ice conditions. Three case studies of liquid water phase, single-layer clouds observed on 3 days (July 13, 23, and 24, 2020) are discussed to show the potential of the collected data set to comprehensively investigate cloud properties determining cloud evolution in the inner Arctic over sea ice. Simulated back-trajectories show that the observed clouds have evolved within 3 different air masses (“aged Arctic,” “advected over sea ice,” and “advected over open ocean”), which left distinct fingerprints in the cloud properties. Strong cloud top radiative cooling rates agree with simulated results of previous studies. The weak warming at cloud base is mostly driven by the vertical temperature profile between the surface and cloud base. In-cloud turbulence induced by the cloud top cooling was similar in strength compared to former studies. From the extent of the mixing layer, it is speculated that the overall cloud cooling is stronger and thus faster in the warm oceanic air mass. Larger aerosol particle number concentrations and larger sizes were observed in the air mass advected over the sea ice and in the air mass advected over the open ocean.

Arctic↗

Ice Nucleating Particles, Aerosols and Clouds over the Higher Latitude Southern Ocean

Improved understanding of aerosol-cloud-precipitation interactions is a key goal of the DOE-ASR program. Ice Nucleating Particles (INPs) are rare aerosol particles that trigger ice formation in clouds. By doing so they may initiate precipitation in clouds, and this impacts cloud lifetime. Nowhere may the role of INPs be manifested so dramatically as in the Southern Ocean (SO). This vast region was the focus of the DOE-ARM MARCUS (Measurement of Aerosols, Radiation and CloUds over the Southern Oceans) and MICRE (Macquarie Island Cloud and Radiation Experiment) campaigns. In the SO, a deficit of INPs has been a leading hypothesis for why liquid clouds persist, which underlays the bias of global climate models in predicting excess shortwave radiation reaching the ocean surface between 55°S and Antarctica. In this study, we used the 6-month acquisition of INP data on four MARCUS cruises from Hobart, Tasmania, to Antarctica, and the single-location full annual INP cycle observed in MICRE, to gain a holistic, quantitative picture of the INP number concentrations as a function of temperature and their variability over SO latitudes from 43°S to Antarctica. Augmenting initial processing of filter collections of aerosol particles during MARCUS and MICRE, additional freezing studies following thermal treatment (to removes INPs associated with microbes) and peroxide treatment (to remove all organics), as well as ionic chemistry and total organic carbon analysis, were applied to samples to improve time and space resolution, and differentiate marine from terrestrial contributions. We also performed Next Generation Sequencing to determine that bacterial composition can tag periods of enhanced and degraded marine organic INPs and the relative lack of occurrence of land-sourced bio-particles. Through these and other analyses, INP data were categorized into representative source types (e.g., marine versus terrestrially-influenced). The products of our analyses are being used to parameterize ice formation for use in numerical modeling studies to determine if, and when, ocean-derived INPs control the microphysical composition and radiative balance of SO clouds in a manner not presently captured by global models. The specific objectives and approaches proposed were largely accomplished, including: 1) Additional and value-added chemical and biological analyses of archived samples of aerosols were completed to categorize and quantify INP types and concentrations over the SO. 2) Analyses were completed to place INP data in meteorological and aerosol context. 3) Sea spray aerosol INPs were demonstrated to dominate the SO region in all but episodic events. 4) New parameterizations for INP sources relevant to the SO were constructed. 5) Collaborative modeling studies demonstrating the crucial role of INPs in determining cloud radiative and precipitation properties were conducted with MARCUS and MICRE partners. Collaborative publication submissions in this regard ensued within the two year study. This work will advance the science of interactions of aerosols, clouds and precipitation, to improve their representation in regional and global climate models. Results have informed representation of primary ice crystal nucleation, give inference to the role of secondary processes, and improve investigations of aerosol influences on clouds via ice nucleation over SO high latitudes and similar vast ocean regions. Application will improve representation of such interactions for clouds in both regional and global climate models. The data base and analyses methods applied will continue to serve research studies in the future.

58 GEOSCIENCES↗

FROSch Preconditioners for Land Ice Simulations of Greenland and Antarctica

Numerical simulations of Greenland and Antarctic ice sheets involve the solution of large-scale highly nonlinear systems of equations on complex shallow geometries. This work is concerned with the construction of Schwarz preconditioners for the solution of the associated tangent problems, which are challenging for solvers mainly because of the strong anisotropy of the meshes and wildly changing boundary conditions that can lead to poorly constrained problems on large portions of the domain. Here, two-level GDSW (Generalized Dryja–Smith–Widlund) type Schwarz preconditioners are applied to different land ice problems, i.e., a velocity problem, a temperature problem, as well as the coupling of the former two problems. We employ the MPI-parallel implementation of multi-level Schwarz preconditioners provided by the package FROSch (Fast and Robust Schwarz)from the Trilinos library. The strength of the proposed preconditioner is that it yields out-of-the-box scalable and robust preconditioners for the single physics problems. To our knowledge, this is the first time two-level Schwarz preconditioners are applied to the ice sheet problem and a scalable preconditioner has been used for the coupled problem. The pre-conditioner for the coupled problem differs from previous monolithic GDSW preconditioners in the sense that decoupled extension operators are used to compute the values in the interior of the sub-domains. Several approaches for improving the performance, such as reuse strategies and shared memory OpenMP parallelization, are explored as well. In our numerical study we target both uniform meshes of varying resolution for the Antarctic ice sheet as well as non uniform meshes for the Greenland ice sheet are considered. We present several weak and strong scaling studies confirming the robustness of the approach and the parallel scalability of the FROSch implementation. Among the highlights of the numerical results are a weak scaling study for up to 32 K processor cores (8 K MPI-ranks and 4 OpenMP threads) and 566 M degrees of freedom for the velocity problem as well as a strong scaling study for up to 4 K processor cores (and MPI-ranks) and 68 M degrees of freedom for the coupled problem.

58 GEOSCIENCES↗

Large Eddy Simulations of Turbulence below Antarctic Ice Shelves

Turbulence below ice shelves is of key importance for predicting ice-shelf melt rates and consequently the contribution of ice sheets to sea level rise. In this project we conducted Large-Eddy Simulations (LES) to improve our understanding of sub-ice-shelf ocean turbulence and the relationship between ice-shelf melt rates and ocean conditions. Over the course of the second and final year of this project (FY2020), we accomplished both major code developments for the PArallel Large-eddy simulation Model (PALM; Maronga et al., 2015) and conducted a suite of simulations which form the basis for a publication in preparation.

58 GEOSCIENCES↗

Arctic Ice Nucleation Sampling during MOSAiC (INPMOSAIC2) Field Campaign Report

The accelerated rate of warming in the Arctic is of great concern due to potential impacts that include release of greenhouse gases from permafrost, melting glacial ice contributing to sea level rise, and declining sea ice cover exposing the darker ocean surface. These processes induce positive feedbacks and contribute to further warming that affects climate globally. Clouds play a crucial role in regulating the energy reaching the sea ice and snow surfaces, but the magnitude of their effects on surface temperature is not well constrained in the Arctic. Aerosols are an important contributor by serving as seeds for cloud particle formation, but even less is known about their overall impact and origin. In particular, aerosols that serve as ice nucleating particles (INPs) are vastly understudied, especially above the central Arctic Ocean. However, INPs likely play a significant role in arctic mixed-phase cloud (AMPC) microphysics and the resulting impacts of such clouds on the surface energy budget over the sea ice.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

Next-Generation Video Ice Particle Sampler Field Campaign Report

The next-generation video ice particle sampler (ngVIPS) was operated on the U.S. Department of Energy (DOE) Atmospheric Radiation Measurement (ARM) user facility’s tethered balloon system (TBS) during the IFFExO (Ice Fog Field Experiment at Oliktok Point) project in November, 2020. The purpose of the project was to study ice fog microphysics and the environmental conditions during ice fog to enable better predictions during low-visibility conditions. This project was conducted at the site of the third ARM Mobile Facility (AMF3) at Oliktok Point, Alaska. Among a suite of other instruments, the ngVIPS was operated to observe atmospheric ice particles.

47 OTHER INSTRUMENTATION↗

Sea Ice Collision Risk Assessment for Tidal Turbine Siting in Cook Inlet, Alaska

Cook Inlet has great potential for tidal stream energy development. However, the presence of drifting sea ice could create hazardous collision risks for tidal turbine farms. Before turbines can be installed in Cook Inlet, sites must be surveyed to determine how often sea ice is present, how fast it will be moved by the current, and where the trajectories of drifting sea ice will be concentrated. In this study, we use remotely sensed data to characterize the seasonal sea ice conditions in Cook Inlet, a hydrodynamic model to map the water velocities, and a particle trajectory tracking model to calculate collision risks. The resulting sea ice coverage and collision risk maps will enable tidal energy developers to choose the best locations for the deployment of tidal turbines and other offshore platforms in Cook Inlet.

16 TIDAL AND WAVE POWER↗