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Search indexed NASA NTRS and DOE OSTI research on propulsion, heat transfer, battery materials and energy systems. Follow report and document links to the original sources.

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DOE OSTI2025

Day-Ahead Probabilistic Forecasting of Net-Load and Demand Response Potentials with High Penetration of Behind-the-Meter Solar-plus-Storage

The goal of this project is to develop advanced methods for day-ahead net-load forecasting, by leveraging the state-of-the-art machine learning techniques. The developed models produce both point and probabilistic forecasts for a variety of use cases, and are versatile to work with different types of data sets. The innovation lies in the novel design of the architectures, leveraging the most recent advances in machine learning that have not been explored in power systems, accompanied by techniques in the broader artificial intelligence fields such as fuzzy systems. This project has achieved the following accomplishments: (1) preprocessing of over 10 data sets covering varying geographical regions, time horizons, and system levels, which form a robust foundation for training and evaluating forecasting models across a wide range of realistic grid scenarios; (2) development of an interactive web app that enables exploratory analysis of load and generation data, and supports better understanding of data trends, anomalies, and correlations, facilitating model development and stakeholder engagement; (3) implementation of over 10 benchmark models for point and probabilistic forecasting, which include a mix of conventional machine learning methods and state-of-the-art deep learning approaches, providing a comprehensive baseline for performance comparison and validation of the proposed models; (4) development of a fuzzy system based gradient boosting model, tailored for small (less than 3 years) data sets, which achieves a mean absolute percentage error (MAPE) of 4% for point forecasting and a 20% improvement in average pinball loss for probabilistic forecasting; (5) development of a Transformer (a state-of-the-art deep learning architecture) based neural network model, tailored for large (3 years or more) data sets, which achieves a MAPE of 2% for point forecasting and a 20% improvement in average pinball loss for probabilistic forecasting; (6) development of a methodology for quantifying DR potential, and extensions of the previous models for multi-target forecasting of net load and DR potential, which achieve a MAPE of 10% for DR potential.

24 POWER TRANSMISSION AND DISTRIBUTION↗

NASA NTRSDate not supplied

Machine Learning based Aircraft Performance Model Estimation for Trajectory Prediction

The accurate prediction of aircraft trajectory by ground-based decision support tools is a critical component of air traffic management in the US National Airspace System (NAS). Accurate predictions of where the aircraft will be in the future or when they will arrive at specific locations (e.g., fixes) is a key enabler for sequencing and efficient arrival management of flights. Traditional physics based aircraft trajectory prediction relies on a simplified point-mass total energy model whose parameters are referred to as Aircraft Performance Model (APM) parameters. Even though the performance coefficients and weight of an aircraft are a vital part of the aircraft performance model’s predictions and accuracy, these coefficients are proprietary in nature and therefore, unavailable to decision-support tools. Current approaches freeze some coefficients to default base of aircraft data (BADA) values and optimize others. However, the APM parameters are highly coupled by the flight dynamics and prioritizing one parameter over others leads to bias and skewed predictions. To alleviate this problem, we provide a combined optimization framework to predict all the critical (thrust, drag and weight) APM parameters. This paper is focused on training Machine Learning (ML) models that map historical flights to optimized APM parameters that provide the best fit (in terms of prediction error). Our dataset obtained from NASA’s Sherlock data warehouse is comprised of thousands of historical flights and includes weather and track data collected from 2019. Using different subsets of relevant features (e.g., aircraft type), we trained several ML models to estimate the aircraft’s take off weight, drag polar coefficients (both parasitic and lift induced), and thrust settings (multiplier applied to the maximum engine thrust). The chosen flights are from three of the most common aircraft types (B738, B737, and A320) arriving at four airports (LAX, DEN, MSP, and DFW). Our ML approach is comprised of two different solutions: 1- using a subset of features that are known prior to the flight departure and do not change during flight (such as engine type, current temperature at departure & destination airports, aircraft type) and 2 - using a subset of temporal features of the flight trajectory (such as cruise altitude, Mach, airspeed, and rate of climb) in addition to the pre-departure features from the first solution. The labels or target variables are the APM parameters that were obtained by an optimized ordinary differential equations (ODE) fitting process (applied to individual flights). The ODE-fitting is very time intensive and is therefore performed offline. Thus, training an ML model to learn the relationship between the flight features and ODE-generated labels enables faster estimation of the APM parameters and is therefore amenable to real-time prediction. Various ML models including linear regression, random forest, XGBoost, and neural network were trained, and the results are compared. After model validation and hyperparameter-tuning, we observed that the Random Forest model outperformed the other three models by the overall mean square error (MSE) of 2% for the first solution and 1.5% for the second solution. Finally, the ML-derived parameters are compared against default BADA APM parameters using NASA’s Autonomy Development toolkit (ADK) simulation software. The simulation results for one of each aircraft type is shown and discussed.

Aida Sharif Rohani↗

DOE OSTI2026

Enabling probabilistic learning on manifolds through double diffusion maps

Here, we present a generative learning framework for probabilistic sampling that extends Probabilistic Learning on Manifolds (PLoM), which is designed to generate statistically consistent realizations of a random vector in a finite-dimensional Euclidean space, informed by a (representative) set of observations. In its original form, PLoM constructs a reduced-order probabilistic model by combining three main components: (a) kernel density estimation to approximate the underlying probability measure, (b) Diffusion Maps to characterize the manifold of the data, and (c) a reduced-order Itô Stochastic Differential Equation (ISDE) to sample from the learned distribution. However, its sampling dynamics are posed in the ambient space and the retained number of reduced coordinates is chosen by projection-reconstruction error. In practice, this often (i) requires more coordinates than the data’s intrinsic dimension to achieve stable sampling and (ii) lacks a smooth, basis-independent lifting back to the data domain; moreover, standard Diffusion Maps emphasize harmonic eigenfunctions and can miss non-harmonic latent structure. We address these limitations by decoupling geometry learning from sampling: a first Diffusion Maps pass identifies non-harmonic coordinates on which we formulate a full-order ISDE directly in the latent space, while Double Diffusion Maps captures multiscale geometric features and Geometric Harmonics (GH) learns a smooth lifting map to the ambient variables that is independent of the particular diffusion basis. This hybrid design preserves the system’s dynamical richness with a compact geometric representation and enables principled out-of-sample inference. The effectiveness and robustness of the proposed method are illustrated through two numerical studies: one based on data generated from two-dimensional Hermite polynomial functions and another based on high-fidelity simulations of a detonation wave in a reactive flow.

Double diffusion maps↗

NASA NTRS2020

Tuning Neural Network Models for Improved Prediction of Boundary Layer Transition

Boundary layer transition can strongly impact flight vehicle performance as it influences surface skin friction and aerodynamic heating, making accurate transition prediction a key to designing next generation aircraft. Artificial neural networks (ANNs) have shown promise toward predicting laminar-turbulent transition based on linear stability correlations. The computational efficiency of ANNs and the substantially reduced user involvement in relation to direct computations based on the linear stability theory (LST) makes them an attractive methodology for integrating the LST based correlations in computational fluid dynamics codes. Tollmien-Schlichting (TS) waves correspond to the dominant transition mechanism in 2D or weakly 3D subsonic boundary layers, such as those encountered in general aviation applications. Improvements to neural network model accuracy in predicting the amplification rates of TS instability waves have been investigated by leveraging recent machine learning developments in conjunction with surrogate optimization techniques and via suitable augmentation of the data used to train the networks. The optimized models trained on the modified dataset reduced the average transition location errors on different airfoils at several flow conditions by 51% of the original manually-tuned network’s errors on the same flow cases. The actual transition locations were derived from the Langley Stability and Transition Analysis Code (LASTRAC).

Machine Learning↗

DOE OSTI2025

Accurate and efficient predictions of keyhole dynamics in laser materials processing using machine learning-aided simulations

The keyhole phenomenon has been widely observed in laser materials processing, including laser welding, remelting, cladding, drilling, and additive manufacturing. Keyhole-induced defects, primarily pores, dramatically affect the performance of final products, impeding the broad use of these laser-based technologies. The formation of these pores is typically associated with the dynamic behavior of the keyhole. So far, the accurate characterization and prediction of keyhole features, particularly keyhole depth, as a function of time, has been a challenging task. In situ characterization of keyhole dynamic behavior using the synchrotron X-ray technique is informative but complicated and expensive. Current simulations are generally hindered by their poor accuracy and generalization abilities in predicting keyhole depths due to the lack of accurate laser absorptance data. In this study, we develop a machine learning-aided simulation method that accurately predicts keyhole dynamics, especially in keyhole depth fluctuations, over a wide range of processing parameters. In two case studies involving titanium and aluminum alloys, we achieve keyhole depth prediction with a mean absolute percentage error of 10 %, surpassing those simulated using the ray-tracing method with an error margin of 30 %, while also reducing computational time. This exceptional fidelity and efficiency empower our model to serve as a cost-effective alternative to synchrotron experiments. Our machine learning-aided simulation method is affordable and readily deployable for a large variety of materials, opening new doors to eliminate or reduce defects for a wide range of laser materials processing techniques.

Computational fluid dynamics↗

DOE OSTI2024

Controlling optical-cavity locking using reinforcement learning

Abstract This study applies an effective methodology based on Reinforcement Learning to a control system. Using the Pound–Drever–Hall locking scheme, we match the wavelength of a controlled laser to the length of a Fabry-Pérot cavity such that the cavity length is an exact integer multiple of the laser wavelength. Typically, long-term drift of the cavity length and laser wavelength exceeds the dynamic range of this control if only the laser’s piezoelectric transducer is actuated, so the same error signal also controls the temperature of the laser crystal. In this work, we instead implement this feedback control grounded on Q-Learning. Our system learns in real-time, eschewing reliance on historical data, and exhibits adaptability to system variations post-training. This adaptive quality ensures continuous updates to the learning agent. This innovative approach maintains lock for eight days on average.

47 OTHER INSTRUMENTATION↗

DOE OSTI2025

Searching for a Pulse: Evaluating the Use of Rapid DC Pulses for Diagnosing Battery Health, State-of-Charge, and Safety

Rapid electrochemical diagnostics, like DC pulse sequences or electrochemical impedance spectroscopy, are known to be useful for capacity prediction. However, it is unclear how previous results will map to different cell types and use cases and whether rapid diagnostics are useful for remaining useful life prediction or for detecting potential safety issues. To that end, we have collected a data set with ∼50,000 DC pulse measurements from four types of commercial lithium-ion batteries to enable training of state-of-charge, health, and safety diagnostic models via machine-learning. We demonstrate that 120-second DC pulse sequences can be used to predict capacity with 2%–9% average error, which can separate high- from low-capacity cells with only a 0.3% false positive rate but is not accurate enough to estimate remaining useful life. We also find that no safety related targets can be accurately predicted, highlighting the critical need for other non-invasive methods to diagnose battery safety.

25 ENERGY STORAGE↗

DOE OSTI2024

Evaluating Machine Learning-Based MRI Reconstruction Using Digital Image Quality Phantoms

Quantitative and objective evaluation tools are essential for assessing the performance of machine learning (ML)-based magnetic resonance imaging (MRI) reconstruction methods. However, the commonly used fidelity metrics, such as mean squared error (MSE), structural similarity (SSIM), and peak signal-to-noise ratio (PSNR), often fail to capture fundamental and clinically relevant MR image quality aspects. To address this, we propose evaluation of ML-based MRI reconstruction using digital image quality phantoms and automated evaluation methods. Our phantoms are based upon the American College of Radiology (ACR) large physical phantom but created in k-space to simulate their MR images, and they can vary in object size, signal-to-noise ratio, resolution, and image contrast. Our evaluation pipeline incorporates evaluation metrics of geometric accuracy, intensity uniformity, percentage ghosting, sharpness, signal-to-noise ratio, resolution, and low-contrast detectability. We demonstrate the utility of our proposed pipeline by assessing an example ML-based reconstruction model across various training and testing scenarios. The performance results indicate that training data acquired with a lower undersampling factor and coils of larger anatomical coverage yield a better performing model. The comprehensive and standardized pipeline introduced in this study can help to facilitate a better understanding of the performance and guide future development and advancement of ML-based reconstruction algorithms.

47 OTHER INSTRUMENTATION↗

DOE OSTI2024

Learning Nonlinear Reduced Models from Data with Operator Inference

This review discusses Operator Inference, a nonintrusive reduced modeling approach that incorporates physical governing equations by defining a structured polynomial form for the reduced model, and then learns the corresponding reduced operators from simulated training data. The polynomial model form of Operator Inference is sufficiently expressive to cover a wide range of nonlinear dynamics found in fluid mechanics and other fields of science and engineering, while still providing efficient reduced model computations. The learning steps of Operator Inference are rooted in classical projection-based model reduction; thus, some of the rich theory of model reduction can be applied to models learned with Operator Inference. This connection to projection-based model reduction theory offers a pathway toward deriving error estimates and gaining insights to improve predictions. Furthermore, through formulations of Operator Inference that preserve Hamiltonian and other structures, important physical properties such as energy conservation can be guaranteed in the predictions of the reduced model beyond the training horizon. This review illustrates key computational steps of Operator Inference through a large-scale combustion example.

Mechanics↗

DOE OSTI2026

Data-Driven Modeling and Correction of Vehicle Dynamics

We develop a data-driven framework for learning and correcting nonautonomous vehicle dynamics. Physics-based vehicle models are often simplified for tractability and therefore exhibit inherent model-form uncertainty, motivating the need for data-driven correction. Moreover, nonautonomous dynamics are governed by time-dependent control inputs, which pose challenges in learning predictive models directly from temporal snapshot data. To address these, we reformulate the vehicle dynamics via a local parameterization of the time-dependent inputs, yielding a modified system composed ofa sequence of local parametric dynamical systems. Here, we approximate these parametric systems using two complementary approaches. First, we employ the dimension reduction and interpolation in parameter space (DRIPS) methodology to construct efficient linear surrogate models, equipped with lifted observable spaces and manifold-based operator interpolation. This enables data-efficient learning of vehicle models whose dynamics admit accurate linear representations in the lifted spaces. Second, for more strongly nonlinear systems, we employ flow map learning (FML), a deep neural network (DNN) approach that approximates the parametric evolution map without requiring special treatment of nonlinearities. We further extend FML with a transfer-learning-based model correction procedure, enabling the correction of misspecified prior models using only a sparse set of high-fidelity or experimental measurements, without assuming a prescribed form for the correction term. Through a suite of numerical experiments on unicycle, simplified bicycle, and slip-based bicycle models, we demonstrate that DRIPS offers robust and highly data-efficient learning of nonautonomous vehicle dynamics, while FML provides expressive nonlinear modeling and effective correction of model-form errors under severe data scarcity.

data-driven modeling↗

DOE OSTI2025

Aerodynamic Sensitivities over Separable Shape Tensors

Here, we present a comprehensive aerodynamic sensitivity analysis of airfoil parameterization informed by separable shape tensors. This parameterization approach uniquely benefits the design process by isolating various well-studied shape characteristics, such as airfoil thickness, and providing a well-regulated low-dimensional parameter domain for aerodynamic designs. Exploring the aerodynamic sensitivities of this novel parameterization can provide valuable insights for more robust designs and future manufacturing efforts. We construct a data-driven parameter space of airfoils using principal geodesic analysis of separable shape tensors informed by a curated database containing almost 20,000 suitable engineering airfoils. Analyzing the shape reconstruction error and the maximum mean discrepancy between joint distributions of aerodynamic quantities, we study the dimensionality of the learned parameter space. This simple numerical experiment demonstrates a dramatic dimension reduction that retains design effectiveness and promotes regularity of the shape representations. Finally, we generate new airfoils and use the HAM2D Reynolds-averaged Navier–Stokes solver to predict lift, drag, and moment coefficients. We compute multiple sensitivity metrics to quantify and assert the consistency of parameter influence on the aerodynamic quantities. We also explore low-dimensional polynomial ridge approximations to motivate physical intuitions and offer explanations of the approximated sensitivities.

17 WIND ENERGY↗

NASA NTRS1993

An expert system shell for inferring vegetation characteristics: Changes to the historical cover type database (Task F)

All the options in the NASA VEGetation Workbench (VEG) make use of a database of historical cover types. This database contains results from experiments by scientists on a wide variety of different cover types. The learning system uses the database to provide positive and negative training examples of classes that enable it to learn distinguishing features between classes of vegetation. All the other VEG options use the database to estimate the error bounds involved in the results obtained when various analysis techniques are applied to the sample of cover type data that is being studied. In the previous version of VEG, the historical cover type database was stored as part of the VEG knowledge base. This database was removed from the knowledge base. It is now stored as a series of flat files that are external to VEG. An interface between VEG and these files was provided. The interface allows the user to select which files of historical data to use. The files are then read, and the data are stored in Knowledge Engineering Environment (KEE) units using the same organization of units as in the previous version of VEG. The interface also allows the user to delete some or all of the historical database units from VEG and load new historical data from a file. This report summarizes the use of the historical cover type database in VEG. It then describes the new interface to the files containing the historical data. It describes minor changes that were made to VEG to enable the externally stored database to be used. Test runs to test the operation of the new interface and also to test the operation of VEG using historical data loaded from external files are described. Task F was completed. A Sun cartridge tape containing the KEE and Common Lisp code for the new interface and the modified version of the VEG knowledge base was delivered to the NASA GSFC technical representative.

Source record↗

NASA NTRS2002

Resource Selection Using Execution and Queue Wait Time Predictions

Computational grids provide users with many possible places to execute their applications. We wish to help users select where to run their applications by providing predictions of the execution times of applications on space shared parallel computers and predictions of when scheduling systems for such parallel computers will start applications. Our predictions are based on instance based learning techniques and simulations of scheduling algorithms. We find that our execution time prediction techniques have an average error of 37 percent of the execution times for trace data recorded from SGI Origins at NASA Ames Research Center and that this error is 67 percent lower than the error of user estimates. We also find that the error when predicting how long applications will wait in scheduling queues is 95 percent of mean queue wait times when using our execution time predictions and this is 57 percent lower than if we use user execution time estimates.

Warren, Smith↗

NASA NTRS2002

Resource Selection Using Execution and Queue Wait Time Predictions

Smith, Warren↗

NASA NTRS2006

The NASA F-15 Intelligent Flight Control Systems: Generation II

The Second Generation (Gen II) control system for the F-15 Intelligent Flight Control System (IFCS) program implements direct adaptive neural networks to demonstrate robust tolerance to faults and failures. The direct adaptive tracking controller integrates learning neural networks (NNs) with a dynamic inversion control law. The term direct adaptive is used because the error between the reference model and the aircraft response is being compensated or directly adapted to minimize error without regard to knowing the cause of the error. No parameter estimation is needed for this direct adaptive control system. In the Gen II design, the feedback errors are regulated with a proportional-plus-integral (PI) compensator. This basic compensator is augmented with an online NN that changes the system gains via an error-based adaptation law to improve aircraft performance at all times, including normal flight, system failures, mispredicted behavior, or changes in behavior resulting from damage.

Buschbacher, Mark↗

DOE OSTI2024

SIGHT: Stacked Integration of Geospatial Hierarchical Typologies for Inferring Building Characteristics

Building characteristics are often absent in building stock datasets, particularly in regions most vulnerable to climate change and requiring effective disaster management strategies. Traditional machine learning approaches, while widely used to predict building attributes, typically neglect the spatial context of the data, leading to less accurate and reliable outcomes. To address these challenges, this paper introduces a novel algorithm, the Stacked Integration of Geospatial Hierarchical Typologies. This algorithm adapts a meta-learning framework to incorporate geospatial context into the predictive modeling process. We demonstrate the utility of the algorithm through two primary use cases: building use type classification and building height prediction. The algorithm consistently achieved or exceeded a 0.94 macro average F1 score across five geographically distinct countries for building use type classification. For building height prediction, it accurately predicted heights with a root mean square error of 3.01 in a comprehensive study using roughly 3.6 million buildings in Japan. These results underscore the benefits of integrating spatial hierarchies into machine learning models, enhancing both predictive accuracy and reliability in geospatial modeling. This work introduces a new algorithm to address the pervasive data sparsity issue in existing building stock datasets.

Adams, Daniel [ORNL] (ORCID:0000000196950577)↗

NASA NTRS1992

Learning a trajectory using adjoint functions and teacher forcing

A new methodology for faster supervised temporal learning in nonlinear neural networks is presented which builds upon the concept of adjoint operators to allow fast computation of the gradients of an error functional with respect to all parameters of the neural architecture, and exploits the concept of teacher forcing to incorporate information on the desired output into the activation dynamics. The importance of the initial or final time conditions for the adjoint equations is discussed. A new algorithm is presented in which the adjoint equations are solved simultaneously (i.e., forward in time) with the activation dynamics of the neural network. We also indicate how teacher forcing can be modulated in time as learning proceeds. The results obtained show that the learning time is reduced by one to two orders of magnitude with respect to previously published results, while trajectory tracking is significantly improved. The proposed methodology makes hardware implementation of temporal learning attractive for real-time applications.

Toomarian, Nikzad B.↗

DOE OSTI2025

Heterogeneous Mixtures of Dictionary Functions to Approximate Subspace Invariance in Koopman Operators: Why Deep Koopman Operators Work

Abstract Koopman operators model nonlinear dynamics as a linear dynamic system acting on a nonlinear function as the state. This nonstandard state is often called a Koopman observable and is usually approximated numerically by a superposition of functions drawn from a dictionary . In a widely used algorithm, extended dynamic mode decomposition (EDMD), the dictionary functions are drawn from a fixed class of functions. Deep learning combined with EDMD has been used to learn novel dictionary functions in an algorithm called deep dynamic mode decomposition (deepDMD). The learned representation both (1) accurately models and (2) scales well with the dimension of the original nonlinear system. In this paper, we analyze the learned dictionaries from deepDMD and explore the theoretical basis for their strong performance. We explore State-Inclusive Logistic Lifting (SILL) dictionary functions to approximate Koopman observables. Error analysis of these dictionary functions show they satisfy a property of subspace approximation, which we define as uniform finite approximate closure. Typically, a Koopman dictionary’s nonlinear functions are homogeneous. In this paper, we discover that structured mixing of heterogeneous dictionary functions drawn from different classes of nonlinear functions achieve the same accuracy and dimensional scaling as the deep-learning-based deepDMD algorithm Yeung et al. ( In: 2019 American Control Conference (ACC), 2019). We specifically show this by building a heterogeneous dictionary comprised of SILL functions and conjunctive radial basis functions (RBFs). This mixed dictionary achieves similar accuracy and dimensional scaling to deepDMD with an order of magnitude reduction in parameters, while maintaining geometric interpretability. These results strengthen the viability of dictionary-based Koopman models to solving high-dimensional nonlinear learning problems.

Johnson, Charles A.↗