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Search indexed NASA NTRS and DOE OSTI research on propulsion, heat transfer, battery materials and energy systems. Follow report and document links to the original sources.

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All sourcesNASA NTRSDOE OSTI
NASA NTRS1985

Extraction of aerodynamic parameters for aircraft at extreme flight conditions

The maximum likelihood estimator has been used to extract stability and control derivatives from flight data for many years. Most of the literature on aircraft estimation concentrates on new developments and applications, assuming familiarity with basic concepts. This paper briefly discusses the maximum likelihood estimator and the aircraft equations of motion that the estimator uses. The current strength and limitations associated with obtaining flight-determined aerodynamic coefficients in extreme flight conditions is assessed. The importance of the careful combining of wind tunnel results (or calculations) and flight results and the thorough evaluation of the mathematical model is emphasized. The basic concepts of minimization and estimation are examined for a simple computed aircraft example, and the cost functions that are to be minimized during estimation are defined and discussed. Graphic representations of the cost functions are given to help illustrate the minimization process. Finally, the basic concepts are generalized, and estimation of stability and control derivatives from flight data is discussed.

Iliff, K. W.↗
NASA NTRS2007

Future Fuel Scenarios and Their Potential Impact to Aviation

In recent years fuel prices have been growing at a rapid pace. Current conservative projections predict that this is only a function of the natural volatility of oil prices, similar to the oil price spikes experienced in the 1970s. However, there is growing concern among analysts that the current price increases may not only be permanent, but that prices may continue to increase into the future before settling down at a much higher level than today. At high enough fuel prices, the aircraft industry would become very sensitive to fuel price. In this paper, the likelihood of fuel price increase is considered in three different price increase scenarios: "low," "medium," and "high." The impact of these scenarios on the aviation industry and alternatives are also addressed.

Hendricks, Robert C.↗
NASA NTRS2011

Future Fuel Scenarios and Their Potential Impact to Aviation

In recent years fuel prices have been growing at a rapid pace. Current conservative projections predict that this is only a function of the natural volatility of oil prices, similar to the oil price spikes experienced in the 1970s. However, there is growing concern among analysts that the current price increases may not only be permanent, but that prices may continue to increase into the future before settling down at a much higher level than today. At high enough fuel prices, the aircraft industry would become very sensitive to fuel price. In this paper, the likelihood of fuel price increase is considered in three different price increase scenarios: "low," "medium," and "high." The impact of these scenarios on the aviation industry and alternatives are also addressed.

Hendricks, Robert C.↗
NASA NTRS2024

Alignment of NASA’s Human System Risks with Technological Capability Gaps to Enable Integrated Research and Technology Development Strategic Planning

BACKGROUND: Radiation, reduced gravity, distance from earth, isolation and confinement, and habitation within artificially created and controlled life support environments are hazards that present risk to human space explorers. NASA’s Human System Risk Board (HSRB) maintains a set of twenty-nine different Human System Risks with subject matter experts from across the agency providing regular updates to the estimated likelihood and consequence associated with each risk. The Human Research Program (HRP) has historically used these risk classifications as a primary basis for identifying and prioritizing human research investments aimed at characterizing and/or mitigating the respective human system risks. In many cases, technology development is required to mature and validate risk mitigation strategies, however, NASA’s primary technology development programs have not typically used Human System Risks as a basis for strategic planning. A primary function of the Environmental Control and Life Support Systems (ECLSS) – Crew Health and Performance (CHP) System Capability Leadership Team (SCLT) is to continually identify, review, and update technological capability gaps and to establish and oversee multiyear strategic roadmaps aimed at guiding NASA’s technology development priorities in these areas. These roadmaps are intended to be agency-wide and independent of any program, directorate, or other organization within NASA. DESCRIPTION: The SCLT and HRP collaborated to establish a set of Human System Capability Gaps, which establish a formal linkage between the capability gaps used to prioritize investments across much of NASA, and the Human System Risks that are primarily used to inform and prioritize human research. This set of twenty-eight gaps was developed by subject matter experts, and each gap mapped to the primary associated Human System Risks. The gaps and risk mapping were then reviewed and approved via the HSRB, thereby formally aligning the research-focused Human System Risks with the technology-focused capability gaps. DISCUSSION: This effort has enabled development of integrated roadmaps and budget coordination with research and technology development activities that are formally linked to agency-recognized capability gaps and Human System Risks. Close and ongoing coordination between the SCLT, HRP, Mars Campaign Office, and the Health & Medical Technical Authority (HMTA) is essential to ensure alignment and prioritization of CHP-related research and technology development to enable NASA’s future exploration missions.

Andrew F J Abercromby↗
NASA NTRS1985

Extraction of aerodynamic parameters for aircraft at extreme flight conditions

The maximum likelihood estimator was used to extract stability and control derivatives from flight data for many years. Most of the literature on aircraft estimation concentrates on new development and applications, assuming familiarity with basic concepts. The maximum likelihood estimator and the aircraft equations of motion that the estimator uses are discussed. The current strength and limitations associated with obtaining flight-determined aerodynamic coefficients in extreme flight conditions are assessed. The importance of the careful combining of wind tunnel results (or calculations) and flight results and the thorough evaluation of the mathematical model is emphasized. The basic concepts of minimization and estimation are examined for a simple computed aircraft example, and the cost functions that are to be minimized during estimation are defined and discussed. Graphic representations of the cost functions are given to help illustrate the minimization process. Finally, the basic concepts are generalized, and estimation of stability and control derivatives from flight data is discussed.

Iliff, K. W.↗
NASA NTRS1988

Cloud classification from satellite data using a fuzzy sets algorithm: A polar example

Where spatial boundaries between phenomena are diffuse, classification methods which construct mutually exclusive clusters seem inappropriate. The Fuzzy c-means (FCM) algorithm assigns each observation to all clusters, with membership values as a function of distance to the cluster center. The FCM algorithm is applied to AVHRR data for the purpose of classifying polar clouds and surfaces. Careful analysis of the fuzzy sets can provide information on which spectral channels are best suited to the classification of particular features, and can help determine likely areas of misclassification. General agreement in the resulting classes and cloud fraction was found between the FCM algorithm, a manual classification, and an unsupervised maximum likelihood classifier.

Key, J. R.↗
NASA NTRS1989

Cloud classification from satellite data using a fuzzy sets algorithm - A polar example

Where spatial boundaries between phenomena are diffuse, classification methods which construct mutually exclusive clusters seem inappropriate. The Fuzzy c-means (FCM) algorithm assigns each observation to all clusters, with membership values as a function of distance to the cluster center. The FCM algorithm is applied to AVHRR data for the purpose of classifying polar clouds and surfaces. Careful analysis of the fuzzy sets can provide information on which spectral channels are best suited to the classification of particular features, and can help determine like areas of misclassification. General agreement in the resulting classes and cloud fraction was found between the FCM algorithm, a manual classification, and an unsupervised maximum likelihood classifier.

Key, J. R.↗
NASA NTRS2000

Estimating Cosmic Ray Spectral Parameters From Simulated Detector Responses With Detector Design Implications

A simple power law model consisting of a single spectral index alpha (sub 1), is believed to be an adequate description of the galactic cosmic ray (GCR) proton flux at energies below 10(exp 13) eV, with a transition at knee energy E(sub k) to a steeper spectral index alpha(sub 2) greater than alpha(sub 1) above E(sub k). The maximum likelihood procedure is developed for estimating these three spectral parameters of the broken power law energy spectrum from simulated detector responses. These estimates and their surrounding statistical uncertainty are being used to derive the requirements in energy resolution, calorimeter size, and energy response of a proposed sampling calorimeter for the Advanced Cosmic ray Composition Experiment for the Space Station (ACCESS). This study thereby permits instrument developers to make important trade studies in design parameters as a function of the science objectives, which is particularly important for space-based detectors where physical parameters, such as dimension and weight, impose rigorous practical limits to the design envelope.

Howell, L. W.↗
NASA NTRSDate not supplied

Velocity and Temperature Measurements in High-speed Flows with Naturally Present Dust Particles Using Rayleigh and Mie Scattering

Dust particles and occasional moisture condensations are unavoidable reality of all wind tunnels. On the path to pursue a goal of velocity and temperature measurements in large transonic and supersonic wind tunnels we have created a tabletop, spectrally resolved, Rayleigh-Mie scattering setup around a small jet fed by ambient and lightly seeded air to determine the viability and accuracy of the technique. The other reality of a wind tunnel setup is the background scattering or the glare at laser frequency, which contaminates the Rayleigh-Mie scattered light. This is simulated by backgrounds with different reflectivity towards the collection optics. Light from a CW laser is delivered via an optical fiber and the scattered light is spectrally resolved using a stabilized Fabry-Perot interferometer, followed by imaging on an EMCCD camera. A model of the of the combined background glare, Mie scattering, and the Rayleigh spectrum was fitted to the camera image using maximum likelihood estimation. Since the background glare occurs at the known frequency of the incident light and the Mie scattering peak corresponds to the Doppler shift from the bulk velocity, both were easily identified, and provided a measure of flow velocity. Preliminary results show that the Rayleigh spectrum can also be resolved, which provides a measure of temperature. It is observed that a slight drift of the laser frequency during data collection affected fitting of the model function leading to larger error. A feedback loop-based stabilization system is on development to take advantage of slight tunability of the laser via a piezo-control. Preliminary results are presented in the abstract. More extensive data from a systematic survey will be presented in the final paper.

Rayleigh scattering↗
NASA NTRS2000

Estimating Cosmic Ray Spectral Parameters from Simulated Detector Responses

A simple power law model consisting of a single spectral index al is believed to be an adequate description of the galactic cosmic ray (GCR) proton flux at energies below 100 TeV, with a transition at kink energy Ek to a steeper spectral index a2>al above Ek. The maximum likelihood procedure is developed for estimating these three spectral parameters of the broken power law energy spectrum from simulated detector responses. These estimates and their surrounding statistical uncertainty are being used to derive the requirements in energy resolution, calorimeter size, and energy response of a proposed sampling calorimeter for the Advanced Cosmic-ray Composition Experiment for the Space Station (ACCESS). This study thereby permits instrument developers to make important trade studies in design parameters as a function of the science objectives, which is particularly important for space-based detectors where physical parameters, such as dimension and weight, impose rigorous practical limits to the design envelope.

Howell, Leonard↗
NASA NTRS2001

Estimating Cosmic-Ray Spectral Parameters from Simulated Detector Responses with Detector Design Implications

A simple power law model consisting of a single spectral index (alpha-1) is believed to be an adequate description of the galactic cosmic-ray (GCR) proton flux at energies below 10(exp 13) eV, with a transition at knee energy (E(sub k)) to a steeper spectral index alpha-2 > alpha-1 above E(sub k). The maximum likelihood procedure is developed for estimating these three spectral parameters of the broken power law energy spectrum from simulated detector responses. These estimates and their surrounding statistical uncertainty are being used to derive the requirements in energy resolution, calorimeter size, and energy response of a proposed sampling calorimeter for the Advanced Cosmic-ray Composition Experiment for the Space Station (ACCESS). This study thereby permits instrument developers to make important trade studies in design parameters as a function of the science objectives, which is particularly important for space-based detectors where physical parameters, such as dimension and weight, impose rigorous practical limits to the design envelope.

Howell, L. W.↗
NASA NTRS1990

Ceramics Analysis and Reliability Evaluation of Structures (CARES). Users and programmers manual

This manual describes how to use the Ceramics Analysis and Reliability Evaluation of Structures (CARES) computer program. The primary function of the code is to calculate the fast fracture reliability or failure probability of macroscopically isotropic ceramic components. These components may be subjected to complex thermomechanical loadings, such as those found in heat engine applications. The program uses results from MSC/NASTRAN or ANSYS finite element analysis programs to evaluate component reliability due to inherent surface and/or volume type flaws. CARES utilizes the Batdorf model and the two-parameter Weibull cumulative distribution function to describe the effect of multiaxial stress states on material strength. The principle of independent action (PIA) and the Weibull normal stress averaging models are also included. Weibull material strength parameters, the Batdorf crack density coefficient, and other related statistical quantities are estimated from four-point bend bar or unifrom uniaxial tensile specimen fracture strength data. Parameter estimation can be performed for single or multiple failure modes by using the least-square analysis or the maximum likelihood method. Kolmogorov-Smirnov and Anderson-Darling goodness-of-fit tests, ninety percent confidence intervals on the Weibull parameters, and Kanofsky-Srinivasan ninety percent confidence band values are also provided. The probabilistic fast-fracture theories used in CARES, along with the input and output for CARES, are described. Example problems to demonstrate various feature of the program are also included. This manual describes the MSC/NASTRAN version of the CARES program.

Nemeth, Noel N.↗
NASA NTRS1990

Design of ceramic components with the NASA/CARES computer program

The ceramics analysis and reliability evaluation of structures (CARES) computer program is described. The primary function of the code is to calculate the fast-fracture reliability or failure probability of macro-scopically isotropic ceramic components. These components may be subjected to complex thermomechanical loadings, such as those found in heat engine applications. CARES uses results from MSC/NASTRAN or ANSYS finite-element analysis programs to evaluate how inherent surface and/or volume type flaws component reliability. CARES utilizes the Batdorf model and the two-parameter Weibull cumulative distribution function to describe the effects of multiaxial stress states on material strength. The principle of independent action (PIA) and the Weibull normal stress averaging models are also included. Weibull material strength parameters, the Batdorf crack density coefficient, and other related statistical quantities are estimated from four-point bend bar or uniform uniaxial tensile specimen fracture strength data. Parameter estimation can be performed for a single or multiple failure modes by using a least-squares analysis or a maximum likelihood method. Kolmogorov-Smirnov and Anderson-Darling goodness-to-fit-tests, 90 percent confidence intervals on the Weibull parameters, and Kanofsky-Srinivasan 90 percent confidence band values are also provided. Examples are provided to illustrate the various features of CARES.

Nemeth, Noel N.↗
NASA NTRS1999

How to Estimate Attitude from Vector Observations

In many spacecraft attitude systems, the attitude observations are naturally represented as unit vectors. Typical examples are the unit vectors giving the direction to the sun or a star and the unit vector in the direction of the Earth's magnetic field. In 1965, Grace Wahba, proposed the following problem: Find the orthogonal matrix A with determinant +1 that minimizes the loss function L(A) is identity with 1/2(Sum from i a(sub i) (absolute value of b(sub i - A(r(sub i))(exp 2))) where the set of b(sub i) is a set of unit vectors measured in a spacecraft's body frame, the set of r(sub i) are the corresponding unit vectors in a reference frame, and the set of a(sub i) are non-negative weights. Wahba's problem can be related to Maximum Likelihood Estimation if the weights are chosen to be inverse variances, a(sub i) = sigma((sub -2). Wahba didn't assume this, but it will be convenient to assume it in this paper. Wahba'soptimality condition has provided the basis for many attitude determination algorithms. The purpose of this paper is to give an overview of the most popular and most promising algorithm and to provide accuracy and speed comparisons.

Markley,F. Landis↗
NASA NTRS2021

Reliability and Safety Assessment of Urban Air Mobility Concept Vehicles

The primary objective of this research effort is to identify failure modes and hazards associated with several configurations of multicopter concept vehicles supplied by NASA. Functional hazard analyses (FHA) and failure modes and effects criticality analyses (FMECA) are performed for each of the eight vehicle configurations under review. Conceptual design of notional powertrain configurations (turboshaft, electric, hybrid electric), notional thrust control systems (rpm control and collective control), and navigation control systems for the concept vehicles were to support the reliability and safety analysis and to assess whether a mission can be completed safely. Two kinds of analyses are performed: static safety analysis which enable the quantification of the likelihood of individual events, and dynamic safety analyses which allows the investigation of multiple time-dependent failures. Their objective is to quantify the likelihood of catastrophic failures.

Urban Air Mobility↗
NASA NTRS1998

Charting Multidisciplinary Team External Dynamics Using a Systems Thinking Approach

Using the formalism provided by the Systems Thinking approach, the dynamics present when operating multidisciplinary teams are examined in the context of the NASA Langley Research and Technology Group, an R&D organization organized along functional lines. The paper focuses on external dynamics and examines how an organization creates and nurtures the teams and how it disseminates and retains the lessons and expertise created by the multidisciplinary activities. Key variables are selected and the causal relationships between the variables are identified. Five "stories" are told, each of which touches on a different aspect of the dynamics. The Systems Thinking Approach provides recommendations as to interventions that will facilitate the introduction of multidisciplinary teams and that therefore will increase the likelihood of performing successful multidisciplinary developments. These interventions can be carried out either by individual researchers, line management or program management.

Barthelemy, Jean-Francois↗
NASA NTRS1993

Integrated risk management

The purpose of this report is to first present a basis or foundation for the building of an integrated risk management plan and them to present the plan. The integration referred to is across both the temporal and the hierarchical dimensions. Complexity, consequence, and credibility seem to be driving the need for the consideration of risk. Reduction of personal bias and reproducibility of the decision making process seem to be driving the consideration of a formal risk plan. While risk can be used as either a selection tool or a control tool, this paper concentrates on the selection usage. Risk relies on stated purpose. The tightness of the definition of purpose and success is directly reflected in the definition and control of risk. Much of a risk management plan could be designed by the answers to the questions of why, what, who, when, and where. However, any plan must provide the following information about a threat or risk: likelihood, consequence, predictability, reliability, and reproducibility. While the environment at NASA is seen as warm, but not hot, for the introduction of a risk program, some encouragement is seen if the following problems are addressed: no champion, no commitment of resource, confused definitions, lack of direction and focus, a hard sell, NASA culture, many choices of assessment methods, and cost. The plan is designed to follow the normal method of doing work and is structured to follow either the work break down structure or a functional structure very well. The parts of the plan include: defining purpose and success, initial threat assessment, initial risk assessment, reconciling threats and parameters, putting part of the information down and factoring the information back into the decision process as it comes back up, and developing inferences. Two major suggestions are presented. One is to build an office of risk management to be used as a resource by managers in doing the risk process. Another is to form a pilot program to try out the details in the plan and modify the method where needed.

Hunsucker, J. L.↗
NASA NTRS1994

Performance of a 2-micrometer coherent Doppler lidar for wind measurements

Measurements of boundary layer winds are presented using a 2-micrometer coherent Doppler lidar and the optimal performance of the maximum likelihood estimator. The systematic error for single-shot estimates was estimated as 3.6 cm/s using measurements from a stationary hard target. The estimation error for measurements of the radial component of the wind field was determined, as well as the fraction of the estimates that are randomly distributed over the velocity search space, when the signal power is low and speckle fading is important. The results from actual data are compared with the results from ideal simulations. The first direct estimation of the spatial structure function of the radial wind field and of the energy dissipation rate is presented for both horizontal and vertical directions of propagation. The rms estimation error of the velocity estimates is found to be within 30% of ideal performance based on simulation.

Frehlich, Rod↗