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At least 343 records · Page 19

More Data Needed for Failure Rate Estimation, Validation, and Uncertainty Reduction

The currently planned schedule for advanced Environmental Control and Life Support System (ECLSS) development and test activities to support human exploration missions is unlikely to generate sufficient data to enable statistically-supportable, precise Orbital Replacement Unit (ORU) failure rate estimates to meet existing crew safety expectations. Accurate and precise failure rate estimates are critical for missions beyond Low Earth Orbit (LEO) because current risk mitigation approaches –namely regular resupply and rapid abort capabilities –will not be available. Safe operations will depend on mission planners’ ability to accurately forecast spares demand and efficiently provide the necessary resources. However, even after more than a decade of International Space Station (ISS) ECLSS operations, a significant amount of uncertainty remains in failure rate estimates. Uncertain or inaccurate failure rates result in increased risk and spares mass. A Bayesian estimation approach, such as the one currently implemented by the ISS Program, can reduce uncertainty by incorporating engineering judgement into failure rate estimates. However, experience on the ISS and with other complex systems shows that these prior failure rate estimates are often inaccurate. In addition, prior estimates are typically point values; some level of uncertainty must be added to convert these into probability distributions for Bayesian updating, and there are several potential methods for doing so. Due to the low rate of data collection, any inaccuracy in theseprior estimates currently hasa strong influence on the end result. This paper examines the challenges associated with failure rate estimation, validation, and uncertainty reduction in the context of ECLSS development for beyond-LEO missions. A variety of techniques for generating and updating Bayesian priors are discussed and evaluated using both real-world and simulated data. Potential solutions for improving failure rate estimation, including testing additional units, are analyzed and discussed, and a set of recommendations are provided for next-generation system development activities.

Reliability↗

More Data Needed for Failure Rate Estimation, Validation, and Uncertainty Reduction

The currently planned schedule for advanced Environmental Control and Life Support System (ECLSS) development and test activities to support human exploration missions is unlikely to generate sufficient data to enable statistically-supportable, precise Orbital Replacement Unit (ORU) failure rate estimates to meet existing crew safety expectations. Accurate and precise failure rate estimates are critical for missions beyond Low Earth Orbit (LEO) because current risk mitigation approaches –namely regular resupply and rapid abort capabilities –will not be available. Safe operations will depend on mission planners’ ability to accurately forecast spares demand and efficiently provide the necessary resources. However, even after more than a decade of International Space Station (ISS) ECLSS operations, a significant amount of uncertainty remains in failure rate estimates. Uncertain or inaccurate failure rates result in increased risk and spares mass. A Bayesian estimation approach, such as the one currently implemented by the ISS Program, can reduce uncertainty by incorporating engineering judgement into failure rate estimates. However, experience on the ISS and with other complex systems shows that these prior failure rate estimates are often inaccurate. In addition, prior estimates are typically point values; some level of uncertainty must be added to convert these into probability distributions for Bayesian updating, and there are several potential methods for doing so. Due to the low rate of data collection, any inaccuracy in theseprior estimates currently hasa strong influence on the end result. This paper examines the challenges associated with failure rate estimation, validation, and uncertainty reduction in the context of ECLSS development for beyond-LEO missions. A variety of techniques for generating and updating Bayesian priors are discussed and evaluated using both real-world and simulated data. Potential solutions for improving failure rate estimation, including testing additional units, are analyzed and discussed, and a set of recommendations are provided for next-generation system development activities.

Reliability↗

Low level vapor verification of monomethyl hydrazine

The vapor scrubbing system and the coulometric test procedure for the low level vapor verification of monomethyl hydrazine (MMH) are evaluated. Experimental data on precision, efficiency of the scrubbing liquid, instrument response, detection and reliable quantitation limits, stability of the vapor scrubbed solution, and interference were obtained to assess the applicability of the method for the low ppb level detection of the analyte vapor in air. The results indicated that the analyte vapor scrubbing system and the coulometric test procedure can be utilized for the quantitative detection of low ppb level vapor of MMH in air.

Mehta, Narinder↗

Appraisal of digital terrain elevation data for low-altitude flight

The use of terrain elevation databases in advanced guidance and navigation systems has greatly expanded. However, the limitations and accuracies of these databases must be considered and established prior to safe system flight evaluation. A simple approach to quantify reasonable flight limits is presented and evaluated for a helicopter guidance system dependent on a terrain database. The flight test evaluated involved a helicopter equipped with a Global Positioning System (GPS) receiver and radar altimeter, and a ground station GPS receiver which provided improved helicopter positioning. The precision navigation and radar altimeter data was acquired while flying low-altitude missions in south-central Pennsylvania. The aircraft-determined terrain elevations were compared with the terrain predicted by the Defense Mapping Agency (DMA) Level 1 terrain elevation data for the same area. The results suggest a safe set clearance altitude of 220 ft for flight testing of a DMA-based guidance avionic in the same area.

Zelenka, Richard E.↗

Appraisal of digital terrain elevation data for low-altitude flight

The use of terrain elevation databases in advanced guidance and navigation systems has greatly expanded. However, the limitations and accuracies of these databases must be considered and established prior to safe system flight evaluation. A simple approach to quantify reasonable flight limits is presented and evaluated for a helicopter guidance system dependent on a terrain database. The flight test evaluated involved a helicopter equipped with a Global Positioning System (GPS) receiver and radar altimeter, and a ground station GPS receiver which provided improved helicopter positioning. The precision navigation and radar altimeter data was acquired while flying low-altitude missions in south-central Pennsylvania. The aircraft-determined terrain elevations were compared with the terrain predicted by the Defense Mapping Agency (DMA) Level 1 terrain elevation data for the same area. The results suggest a safe set clearance altitude of 220 ft for flight testing of a DMA-based guidance avionic in the same area.

Zelenka, Richard E.↗

A Study into the Method of Precise Orbit Determination of a HEO Orbiter by GPS and Accelerometer

In the present day, orbit determination by Global Positioning System (GPS) is not unusual. Especially for low-cost small satellites, position determination by an on-board GPS receiver provides a cheap, reliable and precise method. However, the original purpose of GPS is for ground users, so the transmissions from all of the GPS satellites are directed toward the Earth s surface. Hence there are some restrictions for users above the GPS constellation to detect those signals. On the other hand, a desire for precise orbit determination for users in orbits higher than GPS constellation exists. For example, the next Japanese Very Long Baseline Interferometry (VLBI) mission "ASTRO-G" is trying to determine its orbit in an accuracy of a few centimeters at apogee. The use of GPS is essential for such ultra accurate orbit determination. This study aims to construct a method for precise orbit determination for such high orbit users, especially in High Elliptical Orbits (HEOs). There are several approaches for this objective. In this study, a hybrid method with GPS and an accelerometer is chosen. Basically, while the position cannot be determined by an on-board GPS receiver or other Range and Range Rate (RARR) method, all we can do to estimate the user satellite s position is to propagate the orbit along with the force model, which is not perfectly correct. However if it has an accelerometer (ACC), the coefficients of the air drag and the solar radiation pressure applied to the user satellite can be updated and then the propagation along with the "updated" force model can improve the fitting accuracy of the user satellite s orbit. In this study, it is assumed to use an accelerometer available in the present market. The effects by a bias error of an accelerometer will also be discussed in this paper.

Ikenaga, Toshinori↗

Taking the Measure of the Universe : Precision Astrometry with SIM PlanetQuest

Precision astrometry at microarcsecond accuracy has application to a wide range of astrophysical problems. This paper is a study of the science questions that can be addressed using an instrument with flexible scheduling that delivers parallaxes at about 4 microarcsec (microns)as) on targets as faint as V = 20, and differential accuracy of 0.6 (microns)as on bright targets. The science topics are drawn primarily from the Team Key Projects, selected in 2000, for the Space Interferometry Mission PlanetQuest (SIM PlanetQuest). We use the capabilities of this mission to illustrate the importance of the next level of astrometric precision in modern astrophysics. SIM PlanetQuest is currently in the detailed design phase, having completed in 2005 all of the enabling technologies needed for the flight instrument. It will be the first space-based long baseline Michelson interferometer designed for precision astrometry. SIM will contribute strongly to many astronomical fields including stellar and galactic astrophysics, planetary systems around nearby stars, and the study of quasar and AGN nuclei. Using differential astrometry SIM will search for planets with masses as small as an Earth orbiting in the 'habitable zone' around the nearest stars, and could discover many dozen if Earth-like planets are common. It will characterize the multiple-planet systems that are now known to exist, and it will be able to search for terrestrial planets around all of the candidate target stars in the Terrestrial Planet Finder and Darwin mission lists. It will be capable of detecting planets around young stars, thereby providing insights into how planetary systems are born and how they evolve with time. Precision astrometry allows the measurement of accurate dynamical masses for stars in binary systems. SIM will observe significant numbers of very high- and low-mass stars, providing stellar masses to 1%, the accuracy needed to challenge physical models. Using precision proper motion measurements, SIM will probe the Galactic mass distribution, and through studies of tidal tails, the formation and evolution of the Galactic halo. SIM will contribute to cosmology through improved accuracy of the Hubble Constant. With repeated astrometric measurements of the nuclei of active galaxies, SIM will probe the dynamics of accretion disks around supermassive black holes, and the relativistic jets that emerge from them.

Quasars and Active Galactic Nuclei↗

The Next-Generation Goddard Convective-Stratiform Heating Algorithm: New Tropical and Warm-Season Retrievals for GPM

The Goddard convective-stratiform heating (CSH) algorithm, used to estimate cloud heating in support of the Tropical Rainfall Measuring Mission (TRMM), is upgraded in support of the Global Precipitation Measurement (GPM) mission. The algorithm's lookup tables (LUTs) are revised using new and additional cloud-resolving model (CRM) simulations from the Goddard Cumulus Ensemble (GCE) model, producing smoother heating patterns that span a wider range of intensities because of the increased sampling and finer GPM product grid. Low-level stratiform cooling rates are reduced in the land LUTs for a given rain intensity because of the rain evaporation correction in the new four-class ice (4ICE) scheme. Additional criteria, namely, echo-top heights and low-level reflectivity gradients, are tested for the selection of heating profiles. Those resulting LUTs show greater and more precise variation in their depth of heating as well as a tendency for stronger cooling and heating rates when low-level dBZ values decrease toward the surface. Comparisons versus TRMM for a 3-month period show much more low-level heating in the GPM retrievals because of increased detection of shallow convection, while upper-level heating patterns remain similar. The use of echo tops and low-level reflectivity gradients greatly reduces midlevel heating from ~2 to 5 km in the mean GPM heating profile, resulting in a more top-heavy profile like TRMM versus a more bottom-heavy profile with much more midlevel heating. Integrated latent heating rates are much better balanced versus surface rainfall for the GPM retrievals using the additional selection criteria with an overall bias of +4.3%.

Lang, Stephen E.↗

Determination of stellar radial velocity precision attainable with a coude spectrograph

An instrument to measure highly accurate radial velocities of stars, in order to detect low-mass stellar and planetary companions was proposed. The University of Hawaii's Institute for Astronomy has assembled nearly all the resources needed to realize the highest radial velocity precision attainable with conventional coude spectrographs.

Heacox, W. D.↗

EOS-AM precision pointing verification

The Earth Observing System (EOS) AM mission requires tight pointing knowledge to meet scientific objectives, in a spacecraft with low frequency flexible appendage modes. As the spacecraft controller reacts to various disturbance sources and as the inherent appendage modes are excited by this control action, verification of precision pointing knowledge becomes particularly challenging for the EOS-AM mission. As presently conceived, this verification includes a complementary set of multi-disciplinary analyses, hardware tests and real-time computer in the loop simulations, followed by collection and analysis of hardware test and flight data and supported by a comprehensive data base repository for validated program values.

Throckmorton, A.↗

Potential GPS user architecture for the NASA Space Station based on Landsat 4/5 experience

A Landsat 4/5 GPS system is described which uses an inertial reference attitude control system and precision real-time ephemeris generation to achieve precision earth pointing. The system has application to the validation of the use of GPS for the low earth orbit navigation of the Space Station. The present system consists of a receiver/processor assembly (R/PA), an L-band GPS antenna, a precision oscillator, and the Landsat computer. The R/PA is integrated with a GPS receiver which selects, acquires, tracks, times, and decodes navigation signals from GPS satellites in order to derive ephemerides. Ephemeris estimates were found to be accurate to better than 50 meters.

Korenstein, David A.↗

Hafnium isotope variations in oceanic basalts

Hafnium isotope ratios generated by the beta(-) decay of Lu-176 are investigated in volcanic rocks derived from the suboceanic mantle. Hf-176/Hf-177 and Lu/Hf ratios were determined to precisions of 0.01-0.04% and 0.5%, respectively, by routine, low-blank chemistry. The Hf-176/Hf-177 ratio is found to be positively correlated with the Nd-143/Nd-144 ratio and negatively correlated with the Sr-87/Sr-86 and Pb-206/Pb-204 ratios, and to increase southwards along the Iceland-Reykjanes ridge traverse. An approximate bulk earth Hf-176/Hf-177 ratio of 0.28295 is inferred from the bulk earth Nd-143/Nd-144 ratio, which requires a bulk earth Lu/Hf ratio of 0.25, similar to the Juvinas eucrite. Midocean ridge basalts are shown to account for 60% of the range of Hf isotope ratios, and it is suggested that Lu-Hf fractionation is decoupled from Sm-Nd and Rb-Sr fractionation in very trace-element-depleted source regions as a result of partial melting.

Patchett, P. J.↗

Foil Panel Mirrors for Nonimaging Applications

Large durable, lightweight mirrors made by bonding thick aluminum foil to honeycomb panels or other rigid, flat backings. Mirrors suitable for use as infrared shields, telescope doors, solar-furnance doors, advertising displays, or other reflectors that require low thermal emissivity and high specularity but do not require precise surface figure necessary for imaging.

Kuyper, D. J.↗

Reduction and analysis of data from experiment CAI on the IMP-8 mission

The Caltech Electron/Isotope Spectrometer (EIS) on the Interplanetary Monitoring Platform 8 (IMP-8) has provided precise measurements of the energy spectra and time variations of low energy electrons (0.16 to 6 MeV), the isotopes of hydrogen and helium (approximately 2 to 40 MeV/nucleon), and the elements from lithium through oxygen (approximately 5 to 50 MeV/nucleon) in energetic particle fluxes of solar, galactic, interplanetary, and magnetospheric origin since 1973. The accomplishments that have resulted from EIS measurements during the period March 24, 1980 to December 31, 1984 are summarized.

Stone, E. C.↗

Space Shuttle longitudinal landing flying qualities

The Space Shuttle program took on the challenge of providing a manual landing capability for an operational vehicle returning from orbit. Some complex challenges were encountered in developing the longitudinal flying qualities required to land the Orbiter manually in an operational environment. Approach and landing test flights indicated a tendency of pilot-induced oscillation near landing. Changes in the operational procedures reduced the difficulty of the landing task, and an adaptive stick filter was incorporated to reduce the severity of any pilot-induced oscillatory motions. Fixed-base, moving-base, and in-flight simulations were used for the evaluations. Overall, the Orbiter control system and operational procedures produced a good capability to perform routinely precise landings with a large, unpowered vehicle that has a low lift-to-drag ratio.

Powers, B. G.↗

Terrain Portrayal for Head-Down Displays Experiment

The General Aviation Element of the Aviation Safety Program's Synthetic Vision Systems (SVS) Project is developing technology to eliminate low visibility induced General Aviation (GA) accidents. SVS displays present computer generated 3-dimensional imagery of the surrounding terrain on the Primary Flight Display (PFD) to greatly enhance pilot's situation awareness (SA), reducing or eliminating Controlled Flight into Terrain, as well as Low-Visibility Loss of Control accidents. SVS-conducted research is facilitating development of display concepts that provide the pilot with an unobstructed view of the outside terrain, regardless of weather conditions and time of day. A critical component of SVS displays is the appropriate presentation of terrain to the pilot. An experimental study has been conducted at NASA Langley Research Center (LaRC) to explore and quantify the relationship between the realism of the terrain presentation and resulting enhancements of pilot SA and pilot performance. Composed of complementary simulation and flight test efforts, Terrain Portrayal for Head-Down Displays (TP-HDD) experiments will help researchers evaluate critical terrain portrayal concepts. The experimental effort is to provide data to enable design trades that optimize SVS applications, as well as develop requirements and recommendations to facilitate the certification process. This paper focuses on the experimental set-up and preliminary qualitative results of the TP-HDD simulation experiment. In this experiment a fixed based flight simulator was equipped with various types of Head Down flight displays, ranging from conventional round dials (typical of most GA aircraft) to glass cockpit style PFD's. The variations of the PFD included an assortment of texturing and Digital Elevation Model (DEM) resolution combinations. A test matrix of 10 terrain display configurations (in addition to the baseline displays) were evaluated by 27 pilots of various backgrounds and experience levels. Qualitative (questionnaires) and quantitative (pilot performance and physiological) data were collected during the experimental runs. Preliminary results indicate that all of the evaluation pilots favored SVS displays over standard gauges, in terms of terrain awareness, SA, and perceived pilot performance. Among the terrain portrayal concepts tested, most pilots preferred the higher-resolution DEM. In addition, with minimal training, low-hour VFR evaluation pilots were able to negotiate a precision approach using SVS displays with a tunnel in the sky guidance concept.

Hughes, Monica F.↗