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At least 343 records · Page 19

Carbon Dioxide Utilization Life Cycle Analysis Guidance for the U.S. DOE Office of Fossil Energy and Carbon Management (Version 2.0)

Capturing carbon dioxide (CO 2 ) and placing it in permanent storage in geologic formations is an option for reducing CO 2 emissions, but it may not be a viable one for all CO 2 emitters. For some, the added cost of capture may be too high to implement, or the geology near the source may not be suitable for storage. In these circumstances, other options will be needed. Carbon use and reuse, or CO 2 utilization (CO2U), is an alternative approach that seeks beneficial uses for captured CO 2 , such as using it as a feedstock in the production of fuels, chemicals, and building materials. These uses would give CO 2 value that could be used by suppliers (emitters) to offset capture costs. One of the principal features and challenges associated with CO2U is that the products derived from CO 2 must have lower carbon footprints than their conventional counterparts. Previous assessments of CO2U alternatives have focused on the carbon content of utilization products as an indicator of CO 2 equivalent (CO 2 e) emissions reduction potential. However, embodied emissions are—at best—only weakly correlated with the amount of carbon contained in any physical product. Therefore, the most attractive CO2U options will both displace the carbon in an existing product and improve the overall carbon efficiency of the manufacturing process. Research to overcome barriers will include identifying existing co-feeds and available low-carbon energy sources to enable the conversion of CO 2 to value-added products under favorable processing conditions. New discoveries in the fields of nano- and bio-technology will be applied to efficiently utilize CO 2 in new applications. Development of advanced materials and processes, integrating CO 2 capture with utilization processes (e.g., algae), exploring a diverse slate of products from CO 2 to effectively offset capture costs and developing processes based on waste energy are means to overcome these barriers. The research will lead to the development of advanced catalysts, materials, and equipment that can be used to convert CO 2 into useful products. The result will be multiple flexible and adaptable technology platforms that can be used to produce suites of products spanning multiple utilization pathways.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

Vegetation clumping modulates global photosynthesis through adjusting canopy light environment

Abstract The spatial dispersion of photoelements within a vegetation canopy, quantified by the clumping index (CI), directly regulates the within‐canopy light environment and photosynthesis rate, but is not commonly implemented in terrestrial biosphere models to estimate the ecosystem carbon cycle. A few global CI products have been developed recently with remote sensing measurements, making it possible to examine the global impacts of CI. This study deployed CI in the radiative transfer scheme of the Community Land Model version 5 (CLM5) and used the revised CLM5 to quantitatively evaluate the extent to which CI can affect canopy absorbed radiation and gross primary production (GPP), and for the first time, considering the uncertainty and seasonal variation of CI with multiple remote sensing products. Compared to the results without considering the CI impact, the revised CLM5 estimated that sunlit canopy absorbed up to 9%–15% and 23%–34% less direct and diffuse radiation, respectively, while shaded canopy absorbed 3%–18% more diffuse radiation across different biome types. The CI impacts on canopy light conditions included changes in canopy light absorption, and sunlit–shaded leaf area fraction related to nitrogen distribution and thus the maximum rate of Rubisco carboxylase activity ( V cmax ), which together decreased photosynthesis in sunlit canopy by 5.9–7.2 PgC year −1 while enhanced photosynthesis by 6.9–8.2 PgC year −1 in shaded canopy. With higher light use efficiency of shaded leaves, shaded canopy increased photosynthesis compensated and exceeded the lost photosynthesis in sunlit canopy, resulting in 1.0 ± 0.12 PgC year −1 net increase in GPP. The uncertainty of GPP due to the different input CI datasets was much larger than that caused by CI seasonal variations, and was up to 50% of the magnitude of GPP interannual variations in the tropical regions. This study highlights the necessity of considering the impacts of CI and its uncertainty in terrestrial biosphere models.

59 BASIC BIOLOGICAL SCIENCES↗

ISRU System Model Tool: From Excavation to Oxygen Production

In the late 80's, conceptual designs for an in situ oxygen production plant were documented in a study by Eagle Engineering [1]. In the "Summary of Findings" of this study, it is clearly pointed out that: "reported process mass and power estimates lack a consistent basis to allow comparison." The study goes on to say: "A study to produce a set of process mass, power, and volume requirements on a consistent basis is recommended." Today, approximately twenty years later, as humans plan to return to the moon and venture beyond, the need for flexible up-to-date models of the oxygen extraction production process has become even more clear. Multiple processes for the production of oxygen from lunar regolith are being investigated by NASA, academia, and industry. Three processes that have shown technical merit are molten regolith electrolysis, hydrogen reduction, and carbothermal reduction. These processes have been selected by NASA as the basis for the development of the ISRU System Model Tool (ISMT). In working to develop up-to-date system models for these processes NASA hopes to accomplish the following: (1) help in the evaluation process to select the most cost-effective and efficient process for further prototype development, (2) identify key parameters, (3) optimize the excavation and oxygen production processes, and (4) provide estimates on energy and power requirements, mass and volume of the system, oxygen production rate, mass of regolith required, mass of consumables, and other important parameters. Also, as confidence and high fidelity is achieved with each component's model, new techniques and processes can be introduced and analyzed at a fraction of the cost of traditional hardware development and test approaches. A first generation ISRU System Model Tool has been used to provide inputs to the Lunar Architecture Team studies.

Santiago-Maldonado, Edgardo↗

Latest Development in Radiative Transfer Models and Retrieval Algorithms Using Principal Components

The radiative transfer model (RTMs) has a wide range of applications in satellite remote sensing and atmospheric radiation applications. However, millions of line-by-line (LBL) radiative transfer calculations at fine monochromatic frequencies are needed in order to properly calculate spectral contributions of water vapor and trace gases in the atmosphere in infrared and solar spectral regions. Therefore, fast and accurate RTMs are needed to efficiently process large amount of satellite data. A Principal Component-based Radiative Transfer Model (PCRTM) was first developed in 2004 at NASA Langley Research Centre to fulfil this need. By using PC-compression, one can reduce the data dimension significantly while maintaining original information content. The PCRTM can directly compute PC-scores and their derivatives with respect to retrieved parameters. The PCRTM can simulate the top-of-atmosphere (TOA) radiance or reflectance spectra from 0.250 µm (400000 cm-1) to 2000 µm (50 cm-1) with several orders of magnitude faster speed as compared to a LBL RTM. It is also extremely accurate compared to LBL RTM benchmarks (0.03 K RMS error in IR and 0.05% in solar). The PCRTM model has been developed for hyperspectral sensors such as AIRS, CrIS, IASI, NAST-I, SHIS, FIRST, and CLARREO-IR in thermal IR spectral region and CLARREO-Solar, CPF, TEMPO, EMIT, OMI, and SCIAMACHY in solar spectral region. The PCRTM accuracy has been demonstrated via RTM intercomparisons and with real satellite observations from AIRS, CrIS, IASI, SCHIAMACHY, and EMIT etc. In this presentation, we will describe two PCRTM-based inversion algorithms to retrieve atmospheric temperature, water vapor, and trace gas profiles, as well as cloud and surface properties from hyperspectral sounders such as AIRS, CrIS, IASI, and NAST-I. The first one is called Single Fieldof-view Sounder Atmospheric Product (SiFSAP) algorithm. It provides L2 products with 9-times higher area spatial resolution as compared to current cloud-clearing sounder algorithms. The SiFSAP L2 and L3 products are available at NASA's Goddard Earth Sciences Data and Information Services Center (GES DISC) for public access. The second inversion algorithm is called Climate Fingerprinting Atmospheric Product (ClimFiSP) algorithm. It is designed to produce high quality climate products (trends, anomalies, daily, and monthly profiles of temperature, water vapor, traces, clouds, and surface properties) from multiple satellite sensors such AIRS on Aqua and CrIS on multiple satellites. This product will be available at NASA GES DISC later this year. The PCRTMbased high fidelity simulators for CLARREO and CPF have been used for sensor performance trade studies, algorithm development, and inter-satellite calibrations. We have also used PCRTM generated TOA radiance spectra to train an AI-based algorithm and successfully retrieved cloud properties from EMIT solar hyperspectral imagers.

PCRTM↗

Assimilation of Blended Satellite Soil Moisture Data Products to Further Improve Noah-MP Model Skills

Microwave satellite remote sensing has enabled observations of soil moisture (SM) at the global scale, and multiple SM data products have been developed in the past decades. However, single-sensor-based measurements are insufficient for continuous spatiotemporal coverage. In the context of its climate program, the Climate Change Initiative, the European Space Agency (ESA) has developed robust, long term, global scale, multi instrument satellite derived time series of climate data record for key component of the climate system, including soil moisture (CCI), while the Soil Moisture Operational Product System (SMOPS) was specifically developed by National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) to offer the real time blended SM datasets through merging all available individual products. Before combining, all individual SM data ingested into both SMOPS and CCI blended products are scaled to Global Land Data Assimilation System (GLDAS) 0-10 cm SM climatology. Benefiting from land surface model evolution and the availability of high-quality forcing data, GLDAS has become more comprehensive to track SM changes and dynamic trends. The development of GLDAS and the scaling procedure in CCI and SMOPS leave an open scientific and operational question: do the blended satellite SM data products have added value comparing to the GLDAS product? This study clearly reveals that both CCI and SMOPS can provide the reliable SM observations with independent information, although their climatology matches well with GLDAS. Relative to assimilation of GLDAS 0-10 cm SM data, Noah-MP model can be further improved by assimilating the blended satellite SM observations with respect to the quality-controlled in situ measurements. The strong consistency of results presented in this paper proves that the blended satellite SM data products are more useful than the GLDAS product in terms of improving Noah-MP model performance.

Jifu Yin↗

Measurement of the tt¯ production cross-section as a function of jet multiplicity and jet transverse momentum in 7 TeV proton-proton collisions with the ATLAS detector

The t t &#x00AF;<!-- ¯ --> production cross-section dependence on jet multiplicity and jet transverse momentum is reported for proton-proton collisions at a centre-of-mass energy of 7 TeV in the single-lepton channel. This data was collected with the ATLAS detector at the CERN Large Hadron Collider and comprise the full 2011 data sample corresponding to an integrated luminosity of 4.6 fb –1 . Differential cross-sections are presented as a function of the jet multiplicity for up to eight jets using jet transverse momentum thresholds of 25, 40, 60, and 80 GeV, and as a function of jet transverse momentum up to the fifth jet. The results are shown after background subtraction and corrections for all known detector effects, within a kinematic range closely matched to the experimental acceptance. Several QCD-based Monte Carlo models are compared with the results. Sensitivity to the parton shower modelling is found at the higher jet multiplicities, at high transverse momentum of the leading jet and in the transverse momentum spectrum of the fifth leading jet. As a result, the MC@NLO+HERWIG MC is found to predict too few events at higher jet multiplicities.

72 PHYSICS OF ELEMENTARY PARTICLES AND FIELDS↗

Observation of Forward Neutron Multiplicity Dependence of Dimuon Acoplanarity in Ultraperipheral Pb-Pb Collisions at $\sqrt{s_{NN}}$ = 5.02 TeV

The first measurement of the dependence of $γγ → μ^+μ^–$ production on the multiplicity of neutrons emitted very close to the beam direction in ultraperipheral heavy ion collisions is reported. Data for lead-lead interactions at $\sqrt{s_{NN}}$ = 5.02 TeV, with an integrated luminosity of approximately 1.5 nb –1 , are collected using the CMS detector at the LHC. The azimuthal correlations between the two muons in the invariant mass region 8 < $m_{μμ}$ < 60 GeV are extracted for events including 0, 1, or at least 2 neutrons detected in the forward pseudorapidity range |η| > 8.3. The back-to-back correlation structure from leading-order photon-photon scattering is found to be significantly broader for events with a larger number of emitted neutrons from each nucleus, corresponding to interactions with a smaller impact parameter. This observation provides a data-driven demonstration that the average transverse momentum of photons emitted from relativistic heavy ions has an impact parameter dependence. These results provide new constraints on models of photon-induced interactions in ultraperipheral collisions. They also provide a baseline to search for possible final-state effects on lepton pairs caused by traversing a quark-gluon plasma produced in hadronic heavy ion collisions.

72 PHYSICS OF ELEMENTARY PARTICLES AND FIELDS↗

Temporal and Spatial Aspects of Gas Release During the 2010 Apparition of Comet 103P/Hartley-2

We report measurements of eight primary volatiles (H2O, HCN, CH4, C2H6, CH3OH, C2H2, H2CO, and NH3) and two product species (OH and NH2) in comet lO3P/Hartley-2 using high dispersion infrared spectroscopy. We quantified the long- and short-term behavior of volatile release over a three-month interval that encompassed the comet's close approach to Earth, its perihelion passage, and flyby of the comet by the Deep Impact spacecraft during the EPOXI mission. We present production rates for individual species, their mixing ratios relative to water, and their spatial distributions in the coma on multiple dates. The production rates for water, ethane, HCN, and methanol vary in a manner consistent with independent measures of nucleus rotation, but mixing ratios for HCN, C2H6, & CH3OH are independent of rotational phase. Our results demonstrate that the ensemble average composition of gas released from the nucleus is well defined, and relatively constant over the three-month interval (September 18 through December 1,7). If individual vents vary in composition, enough diverse vents must be active simultaneously to approximate (in sum) the bulk composition of the nucleus. The released primary volatiles exhibit diverse spatial properties which favor the presence of separate polar and apolar ice phases in the nucleus, establish dust and gas release from icy clumps, and from the nucleus, and provide insights into the driver for the cyanogen (CN) polar jet. The spatial distributions of C2H6 & HCN along the near-polar jet (UT 19.5 October) and nearly orthogonal to it (UT 22.5 October) are discussed relative to the origin of CN. The ortho-para ratio (OPR) of water was 2.85 +/- 0.20; the lower bound (2.65) defines T(sub spin) > 32 K. These values are consistent with results returned from ISO in 1997 .

Mumma, M. J.↗

Assessing Uncertainties and Variability 34 Years of Surface Radiative Fluxes Using GEWEX SRB Release4-IP

The NASA/GEWEX Surface Radiation Budget (SRB) project produces 3-hrly shortwave and longwave surface and top of atmosphere radiative fluxes for the 1983-near present time period. The new Release 4 Integrated Product (IP) uses the newly recalibrated and processed ISCCP HXS product as its primary input for cloud and radiance data, replacing ISCCP DX with a ninefold increase in pixel count (10 km instead of 30 km). This first version retains a 1°x1° resolution enabling intercomparison against previous versions and other data sets such as CERES, but spans 34 years from July 1983 through June 2017 and was announced by Kummerow et al. 2019 (GEWEX News). This new IP product also uses an atmospheric temperature and moisture dataset known as nnHIRS and other parameters such as near surface and skin temperatures from SeaFlux and LandFlux data sets. In addition to the input data improvements, several important algorithm improvements have been made since Release 3. These include recalculated SW atmospheric transmissivities and reflectivities, updated ocean and snow/ice albedos, and variable total solar irradiance consistent with SORCE measurements. The LW code has been updated to improve the optical property treatment for clouds and aerosols are included in this version. Radiative treatment of ice clouds is also improved in the LW. The variable aerosol optical properties for the SW and LW are specified using a detailed aerosol history from the Max Planck Institute Aerosol Climatology (MAC). Here we present an assessment of the LW radiative fluxes and the uncertainty of those fluxes relative to the various inputs to surface SW/LW flux measurements from BSRN and PMEL buoys measurements. We review the validation of the SW and LW fluxes and then in terms of time series and then assess the products in terms of their long-term variability of the surface SW and LW net fluxes compared to multiple other data products including atmospheric reanalysis products. The comparisons of radiative estimates to observations are performed at various temporal scales and aimed at investigation of agreement at longer time averages but accessing potential change in diurnal magnitude and daily variability. Utilizing this uncertainty information, to access long-term variability of surface radiation components at selected region and global scales, considering satellite sampling/calibration “artifacts” as necessary. At the longer time scales, the net SW and net LW the TOA and surface have implications toward closure of the energy budgets at the surface, we assess these compared to other studies on energy budget closure for the same selected global and regional scales.

Paul W Stackhouse↗

Once More on the Lattice of Subvarieties of the Wreath Product of the Variety of Semilattices and the Variety of Semigroups with Zero Multiplication

It is known that the monoid wreath product of any two semigroup varieties that are atoms in the lattice of all semigroup varieties may have a finite as well as an infinite lattice of subvarieties. If this lattice is finite, then as a rule it has at most eleven elements. This was proved in a paper of the author in 2007. The exclusion is the monoid wreath product Sl w N{sub 2} of the variety of semilattices and the variety of semigroups with zero multiplication. The number of elements of the lattice L(Sl w N{sub 2}) of subvarieties of Sl w N{sub 2} is still unknown. In a previous paper, we have shown that the lattice L(Sl w N{sub 2}) contains a sublattice having 33 elements. In the present paper, it is proved that the lattice under consideration has exactly three maximal subvarieties. As a first application of the obtained results we calculate the finite basis of the lattice union of the variety of all semilattices and the largest variety among subvarieties of our lattice having at least one heterotypic identity. As a second application we show that the considered lattice of subvarieties has at least 39 elements.

97 MATHEMATICS AND COMPUTING↗

Towards a Standard for Provenance and Context for Preservation of Data for Earth System Science

Long-term data sets with data from many missions are needed to study trends and validate model results that are typical in Earth System Science research. Data and derived products originate from multiple missions (spaceborne, airborne and/or in situ) and from multiple organizations. During the missions as well as well past their termination, it is essential to preserve the data and products to support future studies. Key aspects of preservation are: preserving bits and ensuring data are uncorrupted, preserving understandability with appropriate documentation, and preserving reproducibility of science with appropriate documentation and other artifacts. Computer technology provides adequate standards to ensure that, with proper engineering, bits are preserved as hardware evolves. However, to ensure understandability and reproducibility, it is essential to plan ahead to preserve all the relevant data and information. There are currently no standards to identify the content that needs to be preserved, leading to non-uniformity in content and users not being sure of whether preserved content is comprehensive. Each project, program or agency can specify the items to be preserved as a part of its data management requirements. However, broader community consensus that cuts across organizational or national boundaries would be needed to ensure comprehensiveness, uniformity and long-term utility of archived data. The Federation of Earth Science Information Partners (ESIP), a diverse network of scientists, data stewards and technology developers, has a forum for ESIP members to collaborate on data preservation issues. During early 2011, members discussed the importance of developing a Provenance and Context Content Standard (PCCS) and developed an initial list of content items. This list is based on the outcome of a NASA and NOAA meeting held in 1998 under the auspices of the USGCRP, documentation requirements from NOAA and our experience with some of the NASA Earth science missions. The items are categorized into the following 8 high level categories: Preflight/Pre-Operations, Products (Data), Product Documentation, Mission Calibration, Product Software, Algorithm Input, Validation, Software Tools.

Ramaprian, Hampapuram K.↗

Development of experimental and computational frameworks to predict subcooled flow boiling in the LANL Isotope Production Facility

Cooling is crucial to maintain the integrity of target systems in isotope production facilities. At Los Alamos National Laboratory (LANL)’s Isotope Production Facility (IPF), multiple encapsulated targets are stacked and irradiated in tandem with a 100 MeV, ~250μA proton beam. To facilitate effective heat removal, these stacked targets are separated and cooled via a series of water channels. At these beam currents, this high-energy proton beam heats the target system, likely initiating subcooled flow boiling in the cooling channels. However, in-beam monitoring of the IPF target system is not possible due to the extreme radiation environment, and the necessarily significant shielding. To better understand high-power target performance, we developed ex-situ experimental and computational frameworks to predict the behavior of subcooled flow boiling at IPF. Subcooled flow boiling experiments on Inconel 625 samples under IPF conditions (2 bar pressure, 10 GPM flow rate (i.e., 2249 kg/m 2 /s), 85 K subcooling) revealed that IPF's average operating power is at the early stage of boiling with a heat transfer coefficient of 48,000 W/m 2 /s. The proposed modeling framework enables us to predict a complete boiling curve, i.e., single-phase heat transfer, onset of nucleate boiling, two-phase heat transfer, and critical heat flux (CHF), with specification of input boiling parameters up to intermediate heat flux levels. The estimated CHF under IPF conditions is 5.2 MW/m 2 . Experimental data under reduced conditions (2 bar pressure, 1.5 GPM flow rate (i.e., 337 kg/m 2 /s), 45 K subcooling) served as validation cases for the computational modeling. This computational model can be further extended to more complicated systems replicating the real IPF configuration, for instance, to study void distribution as a function of the incident proton beam profile and coolant velocity profile of multiple cooling channels. Finally, the proposed experimental and computational frameworks provide a means to better understand cooling systems in the isotope production facilities at different accelerators, where in-beam monitoring of the cooling process is not available.

07 ISOTOPE AND RADIATION SOURCES↗

Identifying Inconsistencies in Fission Product Yield Evaluations with Prompt Neutron Emission

Here, we present a self-consistency analysis of fission product yield evaluations. Anomalous yields are determined using a series of simple conservation checks and comparing charge distributions with common parameterizations. The summed average prompt neutron multiplicity for both products as a function of the heavy product mass is derived directly from the independent fission product yields with a procedure utilizing average charge conservation. This procedure is validated with Monte Carlo simulations of the de-excitation of the fission fragments in a Hauser-Feshbach statistical decay framework. The derived is compared with experimental data, when available, and then used to determine the prompt neutron multiplicity for the various evaluations. The propagated errors on from the average charge conservation method are significantly lower than the simple summation rules, which reveals that some evaluations are inconsistent with prompt neutron data. We propose possible solutions to remedy the observed inconsistencies and identify sources of the observed differences in between the various evaluation libraries.

73 NUCLEAR PHYSICS AND RADIATION PHYSICS↗

Impact of Glen Canyon Generation Loss

Colorado River Basin hydropower generation has faced challenges due to droughts and ecological and social water requirements. Specifically, Glen Canyon hydropower generation fluctuates substantially with recent extreme weather trends. Further, the western grid evolves with higher wind and solar share, and Glen Canyon hydropower's contribution to grid flexibility services is essential. The Western Area Power Administration (WAPA) markets and schedules electricity production at GCD, and the loss of this power could have significant financial consequences for the WAPA Colorado River Storage Project's (CRSP) Office because it may need to purchase relatively large amounts of energy to serve its firm electrical obligations. In addition, GCD provides grid reliability services for the WAPA Colorado-Missouri (WACM) balancing authority (BA). Both WAPA and DOE's Water & Power Technology Office (WPTO) are interested in researching how these drier hydrological conditions will impact federal electrical energy production, the Western Electricity Coordinating Council (WECC) power grid, and the value of hydropower in the face of lower production. We study multiple hydrologic and power grid scenarios to understand the grid impacts of the loss of Glen Canyon generation. The study uses a production cost model, water resources planning models, water-centric grid models, and various data analytic techniques. The study progress presentation discusses the selection of probable CRSP' hydropower scenarios and power grid scenarios to understand the impacts of Glen Canyon generation, which includes technologies that compensate the Glen Canyon energy and ancillary services contributions, transmission availability, and energy local marginal prices at interested grid locations of WAPA operation.

droughts↗

Neutron inelastic scattering measurements on Xe 136 at E n = 0.7 to 100 MeV

Experiments searching for neutrinoless double ${\beta}$ decay ($0{\nu}{\beta}{\beta}$) require precise energy calibration and extremely low backgrounds. One of the most popular isotopes for $0{\nu}{\beta}{\beta}$ experiments is $^{136}\mathrm{Xe}$. In support of these experiments, the neutron inelastic scattering properties of this isotope have been measured at the GErmanium Array for Neutron Induced Excitations (GEANIE) at the Los Alamos Neutron Science Center. Time-of-flight techniques are utilized with high-purity germanium detectors to search for inelastic scattering ${\gamma}$ rays for neutron energies between 0.7 and 100 MeV. Limits are set on production of yet-unobserved ${\gamma}$ rays in the energy range critical for $0{\nu}{\beta}{\beta}$ studies, and measurements are made of multiple ${\gamma}$-ray production cross sections. In particular, we have measured the production of the 1313 keV ${\gamma}$ ray, which comes from the transition of the first-excited to ground state of $^{136}\mathrm{Xe}$. This neutron-induced ${\gamma}$ line may be useful for a novel energy calibration technique.

46 INSTRUMENTATION RELATED TO NUCLEAR SCIENCE AND ↗

PV Fleet Performance Data Initiative Program and Methodology

The US Department of Energy’s PV Fleet Performance Data Initiative has been launched in order to collect and evaluate production data across multiple PV fleet partners. Performance statistics are anonymized, aggregated and shared to represent a snapshot of the US commercial and utility-scale fleet. Production data have been collected from over 1500 systems representing more than 1.3 GWdc capacity. Preliminary analysis indicates median performance loss rates are in line with previous publications of system degradation, on the order of –0.6%/yr to –0.9%/yr (preliminary numbers subject to change). These values are higher than module-only degradation rates which are often used in pro-forma estimates of project performance and economics, potentially exposing owner/operators to increased risk if systems under-perform over time.

41 EE - Solar Energy Technologies Office (EE-4S)↗

Group size mediates effects of intraspecific competition and forest structure on productivity in a recovering social woodpecker population

Conservation of endangered social wildlife in disturbance-prone forests is challenging because direct and indirect effects of management strategies developed at the time of species’ listing when population density is low may change under high-density conditions in locally recovered populations. Here, we used piecewise structural equation modeling to evaluate direct and indirect drivers of productivity in the federally endangered cooperatively breeding red-cockaded woodpecker Dryobates borealis (RCW) on Savannah River Site, South Carolina, USA. We estimated direct and indirect relationships among group size, neighboring group sizes, fledgling production, density of cavity tree clusters occupied by RCWs, area satisfying threshold criteria of ≥22 stems ha –1 of pines ≥35.6 cm diameter at breast height (dbh), <1.4 m 2 ha –1 basal area (BA) of hardwoods 7.6–22.9 cm dbh, and <6% hardwood canopy cover, and area treated with prescribed fire, and tested whether group size mediated indirect effects of area satisfying threshold criteria on fledgling production. Increases in area with ≥22 stems ha –1 of pines ≥35.6 cm dbh and <1.4 m 2 ha –1 BA of hardwoods 7.6–22.9 cm dbh, and area treated with prescribed fire, but not area with <6% hardwood canopy cover, had direct positive effects on group size. Group size and area treated with prescribed fire, but not area satisfying threshold criteria, had direct positive effects on fledgling production. The direct effect of neighboring group sizes on fledgling production was negative and smaller relative to the direct positive effect of group size on fledgling production. Overall, our results indicate positive direct effects of group size on fledgling production outweighed negative direct effects of neighboring group sizes, and that group size mediated positive indirect effects of area satisfying structural threshold criteria on fledgling production. These findings indicate that ongoing forest management aimed to increase area with ≥22 pines ha –1 ≥35.6 cm dbh and <1.4 m 2 ha –1 BA of hardwoods 7.6–22.9 cm dbh will promote large group sizes, which in turn improve fledgling production and offset costs of heightened competition with neighboring groups under high-density conditions. Additionally, positive effects of area treated with prescribed fire on RCW group size and fledgling production indicate prescribed fire has unique contributions to woodpecker productivity, likely via direct effects on forest structure and potentially indirect effects on arthropod prey available to foraging RCWs. Furthermore, by simultaneously accounting for multiple drivers of productivity in social wildlife, our study contributes to the understanding of how increases in social wildlife population sizes can alter previously documented habitat-fitness relationships.

prescribed fire↗