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At least 343 records · Page 19

Spatial and Temporal Uncertainty of Crop Yield Aggregations

The aggregation of simulated gridded crop yields to national or regional scale requires information on temporal and spatial patterns of crop-specific harvested areas. This analysis estimates the uncertainty of simulated gridded yield time series related to the aggregation with four different harvested area data sets. We compare aggregated yield time series from the Global Gridded Crop Model Inter-comparison project for four crop types from 14 models at global, national, and regional scale to determine aggregation-driven differences in mean yields and temporal patterns as measures of uncertainty. The quantity and spatial patterns of harvested areas differ for individual crops among the four datasets applied for the aggregation. Also simulated spatial yield patterns differ among the 14 models. These differences in harvested areas and simulated yield patterns lead to differences in aggregated productivity estimates, both in mean yield and in the temporal dynamics. Among the four investigated crops, wheat yield (17% relative difference) is most affected by the uncertainty introduced by the aggregation at the global scale. The correlation of temporal patterns of global aggregated yield time series can be as low as for soybean (r = 0.28).For the majority of countries, mean relative differences of nationally aggregated yields account for10% or less. The spatial and temporal difference can be substantial higher for individual countries. Of the top-10 crop producers, aggregated national multi-annual mean relative difference of yields can be up to 67% (maize, South Africa), 43% (wheat, Pakistan), 51% (rice, Japan), and 427% (soybean, Bolivia).Correlations of differently aggregated yield time series can be as low as r = 0.56 (maize, India), r = 0.05∗Corresponding (wheat, Russia), r = 0.13 (rice, Vietnam), and r = −0.01 (soybean, Uruguay). The aggregation to sub-national scale in comparison to country scale shows that spatial uncertainties can cancel out in countries with large harvested areas per crop type. We conclude that the aggregation uncertainty can be substantial for crop productivity and production estimations in the context of food security, impact assessment, and model evaluation exercises.

Aggregation uncertainty↗

Simulating US Agriculture in a Modern Dust Bowl Drought

Drought-induced agricultural loss is one of the most costly impacts of extreme weather, and without mitigation, climate change is likely to increase the severity and frequency of future droughts. The Dust Bowl of the 1930s was the driest and hottest for agriculture in modern US history. Improvements in farming practices have increased productivity, but yields today are still tightly linked to climate variation and the impacts of a 1930s-type drought on current and future agricultural systems remain unclear. Simulations of biophysical process and empirical models suggest that Dust-Bowl-type droughts today would have unprecedented consequences, with yield losses approx.50% larger than the severe drought of 2012. Damages at these extremes are highly sensitive to temperature, worsening by approx.25% with each degree centigrade of warming. We find that high temperatures can be more damaging than rainfall deficit, and, without adaptation, warmer mid-century temperatures with even average precipitation could lead to maize losses equivalent to the Dust Bowl drought. Warmer temperatures alongside consecutive droughts could make up to 85% of rain-fed maize at risk of changes that may persist for decades. Understanding the interactions of weather extremes and a changing agricultural system is therefore critical to effectively respond to, and minimize, the impacts of the next extreme drought event.

climate change impacts↗

Temperature Increase Reduces Global Yields of Major Crops in Four Independent Estimates

Wheat, rice, maize, and soybean provide two-thirds of human caloric intake. Assessing the impact of global temperature increase on production of these crops is therefore critical to maintaining global food supply, but different studies have yielded different results. Here, we investigated the impacts of temperature on yields of the four crops by compiling extensive published results from four analytical methods: global grid-based and local point-based models, statistical regressions, and field-warming experiments. Results from the different methods consistently showed negative temperature impacts on crop yield at the global scale, generally underpinned by similar impacts at country and site scales. Without CO2 fertilization, effective adaptation, and genetic improvement, each degree-Celsius increase in global mean temperature would, on average, reduce global yields of wheat by 6.0%, rice by 3.2%, maize by 7.4%, and soybean by 3.1%. Results are highly heterogeneous across crops and geographical areas, with some positive impact estimates. Multi-method analyses improved the confidence in assessments of future climate impacts on global major crops and suggest crop- and region-specific adaptation strategies to ensure food security for an increasing world population.

Zhao, Chuang↗

Constraints and Potentials of Future Irrigation Water Availability on Agricultural Production Under Climate Change

Freshwater availability is relevant to almost all socioeconomic and environmental impacts of climate and demographic change and their implications for sustainability. We compare ensembles of water supply and demand projections driven by ensemble output from five global climate models. Our results suggest reasons for concern. Direct climate impacts to maize, soybean, wheat, and rice involve losses of 400–2,600 Pcal (8–43% of present-day total). Freshwater limitations in some heavily irrigated regions could necessitate reversion of 20–60 Mha of cropland from irrigated to rainfed management, and a further loss of 600–2,900 Pcal. Freshwater abundance in other regions could help ameliorate these losses, but substantial investment in infrastructure would be required. We compare ensembles of water supply and demand projections from 10 global hydrological models and six global gridded crop models. These are produced as part of the Inter-Sectoral Impacts Model Intercomparison Project, with coordination from the Agricultural Model Intercomparison and Improvement Project, and driven by outputs of general circulation models run under representative concentration pathway 8.5 as part of the Fifth Coupled Model Intercomparison Project. Models project that direct climate impacts to maize, soybean, wheat, and rice involve losses of 400–1,400 Pcal (8–24% of present-day total) when CO2 fertilization effects are accounted for or 1,400–2,600 Pcal (24–43%) otherwise. Freshwater limitations in some irrigated regions (western United States; China; and West, South, and Central Asia) could necessitate the reversion of 20–60 Mha of cropland from irrigated to rainfed management by end-of-century, and a further loss of 600–2,900 Pcal of food production. In other regions (northern/eastern United States, parts of South America, much of Europe, and South East Asia) surplus water supply could in principle support a net increase in irrigation, although substantial investments in irrigation infrastructure would be required.

agriculture↗

Coordinating AgMIP Data and Models Across Global and Regional Scales for 1.5°C and 2.0°C Assessments

The Agricultural Model Intercomparison and Improvement Project (AgMIP) has developed novel methods for Coordinated Global and Regional Assessments (CGRA) of agriculture and food security in a changing world. The present study aims to perform a proof of concept of the CGRA to demonstrate advantages and challenges of the proposed framework. This effort responds to the request by the UN Framework Convention on Climate Change (UNFCCC) for the implications of limiting global temperature increases to 1.5°C and 2.0°C above pre-industrial conditions. The protocols for the 1.5°C/2.0°C assessment establish explicit and testable linkages across disciplines and scales, connecting outputs and inputs from the Shared Socio-economic Pathways (SSPs), Representative Agricultural Pathways (RAPs), Half a degree Additional warming, Prognosis and Projected Impacts (HAPPI) and Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 5 (CMIP5) ensemble scenarios, global gridded crop models, global agricultural economics models, site-based crop models and within-country regional economics models. The CGRA consistently links disciplines, models and scales in order to track the complex chain of climate impacts and identify key vulnerabilities, feedbacks and uncertainties in managing future risk. CGRA proof-of-concept results show that, at the global scale, there are mixed areas of positive and negative simulated wheat and maize yield changes, with declines in some bread basket regions, at both 1.5°C and 2.0°C. Declines are especially evident in simulations that do not take into account direct CO2 effects on crops. These projected global yield changes mostly resulted in increases in prices and areas of wheat and maize in two global economics models. Regional simulations for 1.5°C and 2.0°C using site-based crop models had mixed results depending on the region and the crop. In conjunction with price changes from the global economics models, productivity declines in the Punjab, Pakistan, resulted in an increase in vulnerable households and the poverty rate. This article is part of the theme issue ‘The Paris Agreement: understanding the physical and social challenges for a warming world of 1.5°C above pre-industrial levels’.

interdisciplinary↗

Water-Saving Agriculture Can Deliver Deep Water Cuts for China

China is working hard to reconcile growing demands for freshwater with already oversubscribed renewable water resources. However, the knowledge essential for setting and achieving the intended water consumption cuts remains limited. Here we show that on-farm water management interventions such as improved irrigation and soil management practices for maize cultivation can lead to substantial water consumption reductions, by a simulated total of 28-46% (7-14 billion m3/year) nationally, with or without the impacts of climate change. The water consumption cut is equivalent to 16-31% of the ultimate capacity of the South-North Water Transfer Project. Much of the reduction is achievable at the populous and water-stressed North China Plain and Northeast China. Meanwhile, the interventions can increase maize production by an estimated 7-15%, meeting 22-28% of demand increase projected for 2050. The water management and food production improvements obtained are crucial for achieving multiple Sustainable Development Goals (SDGs) related to water, land, and food in China and far beyond.

Guorui Huang↗

A Regional Nuclear Conflict Would Compromise Global Food Security

A limited nuclear war between India and Pakistan could ignite fires large enough to emit more than 5 Tg of soot into the stratosphere. Climate model simulations have shown severe resulting climate perturbations with declines in global mean temperature by 1.8 ◦C and precipitation by 8%, for at least 5 y. Here we evaluate impacts for the global food system. Six harmonized state-of-the-art crop models show that global caloric production from maize, wheat, rice, and soybean falls by 13 (±1)%, 11 (±8)%, 3 (±5)%, and 17 (±2)% over 5 y. Total single-year losses of 12 (±4)% quadruple the largest observed historical anomaly and exceed impacts caused by historic droughts and volcanic eruptions. Colder temperatures drive losses more than changes in precipitation and solar radiation, leading to strongest impacts in temperate regions poleward of 30◦N, including the United States, Europe, and China for 10 to 15 y. Integrated food trade network analyses show that domestic reserves and global trade can largely buffer the production anomaly in the first year. Persistent multiyear losses, however, would constrain domestic food availability and propagate to the Global South, especially to food-insecure countries. By year 5, maize and wheat availability would decrease by 13% globally and by more than 20% in 71 countries with a cumulative population of 1.3 billion people. In view of increasing instability in South Asia, this study shows that a regional conflict using <1% of the worldwide nuclear arsenal could have adverse consequences for global food security unmatched in modern history.

Jaegermeyr, Jonas↗

Exploring uncertainties in global crop yield projections in a large ensemble of crop models and CMIP5 and CMIP6 climate scenarios

Concerns over climate change are motivated in large part because of their impact on human society. Assessing the effect of that uncertainty on specific potential impacts is demanding, since it requires a systematic survey over both climate and impacts models. We provide a comprehensive evaluation of uncertainty in projected crop yields for maize, spring and winter wheat, rice, and soybean, using a suite of nine crop models and up to 45 CMIP5 and 34 CMIP6 climate projections for three different forcing scenarios. To make this task computationally tractable, we use a new set of statistical crop model emulators. We find that climate and crop models contribute about equally to overall uncertainty. While the ranges of yield uncertainties under CMIP5 and CMIP6 projections are similar, median impact in aggregate total caloric production is typically more negative for the CMIP6 projections (+1% to −19%) than for CMIP5 (+5% to −13%). In the first half of the 21st century and for individual crops is the spread across crop models typically wider than that across climate models, but we find distinct differences between crops: globally, wheat and maize uncertainties are dominated by the crop models, but soybean and rice are more sensitive to the climate projections. Climate models with very similar global mean warming can lead to very different aggregate impacts so that climate model uncertainties remain a significant contributor to agricultural impacts uncertainty. These results show the utility of large-ensemble methods that allow comprehensively evaluating factors affecting crop yields or other impacts under climate change. The crop model ensemble used here is unbalanced and pulls the assumption that all projections are equally plausible into question. Better methods for consistent model testing, also at the level of individual processes, will have to be developed and applied by the crop modeling community.

crop yield projections↗

Climate Impacts on Global Agriculture Emerge Earlier in New Generation of Climate and Crop Models

Potential climate-related impacts on future crop yield are a major societal concern. Previous projections of the Agricultural Model Intercomparison and Improvement Project’s Global Gridded Crop Model Intercomparison based on the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 5 identified substantial climate impacts on all major crops, but associated uncertainties were substantial. Here we report new twenty-first-century projections using ensembles of latest-generation crop and climate models. Results suggest markedly more pessimistic yield responses for maize, soybean and rice compared to the original ensemble. Mean end-of-century maize productivity is shifted from +5% to −6% (SSP126) and from +1% to −24% (SSP585)—explained by warmer climate projections and improved crop model sensitivities. In contrast, wheat shows stronger gains (+9% shifted to +18%, SSP585), linked to higher CO 2 concentrations and expanded high-latitude gains. The ‘emergence’ of climate impacts consistently occurs earlier in the new projections—before 2040 for several main producing regions. While future yield estimates remain uncertain, these results suggest that major breadbasket regions will face distinct anthropogenic climatic risks sooner than previously anticipated.

crop model↗

Discrete anisotropic radiative transfer modelling of solar-induced chlorophyll fluorescence: Structural impacts in geometrically explicit vegetation canopies

Solar-induced fluorescence (SIF) is a subtle but informative optical signal of vegetation photosynthesis. Remotely sensed SIF integrates environmental, physiological and structural changes that alter photosynthesis at leaf, plant and canopy scales. Radiative transfer models are ideally suited to investigate the complex sources of variability in the SIF signal to guide the interpretation of SIF retrievals from airborne and space-borne platforms. Here, we coupled the Fluspect-Cx model of leaf optical properties and chlorophyll-a fluorescence with the Discrete Anisotropic Radiative Transfer (DART) model to upscale SIF from individual leaves to three-dimensional (3D) structurally explicit canopies. For one-dimensional homogeneous (turbid-like) canopies, DART-SIF was nearly identical to SIF simulated in two existing models, SCOPE and mSCOPE (RMSE <0.221 W./sq.m.μm.sr). DART simulations in geometrically explicit 3D canopies offered four important insights regarding the influence of vegetation structure on the multi-angular top-of-canopy SIF signal. First, changes in the 3D canopy architecture of maize crops, represented by leaf density (leaf area index), and plant clumping (canopy closure) had a larger impact on SIF than the modelled photosynthetic efficiency distinction between sun-adapted and shade-adapted foliage. Second, clumping of leaves at the crop and stand levels was identified as one of the key driving factors of multi-angular anisotropy of red and far-red SIF (686 and 740 nm) for both maize and eucalyptus canopies. Third, non-photosynthetic woody material had a significant impact on top-of-canopy SIF in modelled 3D forest stands. Wood shadowing decreased the photosynthetically active radiation absorbed by green leaves, and consequently the SIF emissions, by 10% in sparse and 17% in dense eucalyptus stands. The wood obstruction (blocking) effect, quantified as a relative difference of SIF escape probabilities from canopies with and without wood in the nadir viewing direction, decreased far-red SIF by 4–6% but it had a smaller and sometimes positive influence (by less than 2%) on red SIF. Fourth, DART 3D radiative budget profiles revealed that the majority of the SIF signal from a dense eucalyptus stand originated from the top 25% of the simulated canopy. Interestingly, the introduction of bark-covered woody elements did not alter the simulated balance and omnidirectional escape factor of red SIF in this upper canopy part but did raise significantly both of them in case of far-red SIF. These results demonstrate the importance of 3D radiative transfer and radiative budget simulations for investigating SIF interactions in structurally complex plant canopies and for a better understanding of spatiotemporal and multi-angular remote sensing SIF observations.

Zbyněk Malenovský↗

Human Heat Stress Could Offset Potential Economic Benefits of CO 2 Fertilization in Crop Production Under a High-Emissions Scenario

Climate change can significantly impact agriculture, leading to food security challenges. Most previous studies have investigated the direct climate impact on crops while neglecting the impact of heat stress on agricultural labor. Here, we assess the economic consequences of climate impacts on four major crops—maize, soybean, wheat, and rice—for scenarios involving low and high greenhouse gas emissions. Our analysis is based on the output from a new generation of global climate and crop models to drive a multiregional economic model. We find that, even under a high-emission scenario, the effect of CO 2 fertilization could lead to higher yields, resulting in lower prices for major crops, except for maize. However, heat-induced losses in agricultural labor could offset the potential economic benefits of CO 2 fertilization in crop production in Asia and Africa. Our findings emphasize the importance of addressing heat-stress impacts on agricultural labor through proactive adaptation measures.

climate change↗

High-Magnification Faraday Rotation Imaging and Analysis of X-pinch Implosion Dynamics

An X-pinch load driven by an intense current pulse (>100 kA in ~100 ns) can result in the formation of a small radius, runaway compressional micro-pinch. A micro-pinch is characterized by a hot (>1 keV), current-driven (>100 kA), high-density plasma column (near solid density) with a small neck diameter (1–10 μm), a short axial extent (<1 mm), and a short duration (.1 ns). With material pressures often well into the multi-Mbar regime, a micro-pinch plasma often radiates an intense, sub-ns burst of sub-keV to multi-keV x-rays. A low-density coronal plasma immediately surrounding the dense plasma neck could potentially shunt current away from the neck and thus reduce the magnetic drive pressure applied to the neck. To study the current distribution in the coronal plasma throughout the implosion process, a Faraday rotation imaging diagnostic (1064 nm) capable of producing simultaneous high-magnification polarimetric and interferometric images has been developed for the 1-MA, 100-ns MAIZE facility at the University of Michigan. Designed with a variable magnification (1–10&times;), this diagnostic achieves a spatial resolution of approximately 35 μm, which is useful for resolving the ~100-μm-scale coronal plasma region immediately surrounding the dense core. Combined with the corresponding interferogram, which provides the radial density distribution in the low-density coronal plasma, the measured rotation can be used to diagnose the delivery of the driver current, and thus the magnetic drive pressure, to the micro-pinch plasma as it approaches minimal radius. Using this technique on MAIZE, we have measured

Dowhan, G. V.↗

Plant-microbial interplay for organic nitrogen mediated by functional specificity of root compartments

The organic form of nitrogen (N) is a critical intermediate in mutualistic and competitive root-microbial interactions, mediated by extracellular enzymes. Visualization of the hotspots of organic N and proteolytic activity might be valuable for revealing root functional specificity in N acquisition and transformation at the level of individual roots and compartments. For the first time, we used time-lapse amino-mapping and zymography to co-localize and map the spatial distribution of amino-N and leucine aminopeptidase (LAP) activity in the soil and different root parts of maize (Zea mays L.). Amino-N distribution was mainly associated with seminal roots and root tips, where it overlapped with LAP activity hotspots. In the lateral roots and bulk soil, however, LAP activity was decoupled from amino-N. Distinct functional traits revealed themselves as the highest amino-N content and LAP activity in seminal root tips and as the largest relative extent of the rhizosphere in lateral root tips. Co-localized amino-N and LAP activities highlighted different nutrient acquisition strategies mediated by root-microbe interactions, depending on the root compartment. Seminal roots and their tips appeared to adopt mutualistic strategies, potentially attracting root-associated microorganisms through releasing oligo- and polypeptides. In contrast, lateral roots, with amino-N detected only at their tips, demonstrated stronger N competition, relying on the enzyme activity of the rhizosphere microbial community for N acquisition. These insights emphasized the role of root functional specialization in shaping plant-microbe interactions, offering pathways to enhance nutrient use efficiency.

Maize (Zea mays L.)↗

Observational evidence for groundwater influence on crop yields in the United States

As climate change shifts crop exposure to dry and wet extremes, a better understanding of factors governing crop response is needed. Recent studies identified shallow groundwater—groundwater within or near the crop rooting zone—as influential, yet existing evidence is largely based on theoretical crop model simulations, indirect or static groundwater data, or small-scale field studies. Here, we use observational satellite yield data and dynamic water table simulations from 1999 to 2018 to provide field-scale evidence for shallow groundwater effects on maize yields across the United States Corn Belt. We identify three lines of evidence supporting groundwater influence: 1) crop model simulations better match observed yields after improvements in groundwater representation; 2) machine learning analysis of observed yields and modeled groundwater levels reveals a subsidy zone between 1.1 and 2.5 m depths, with yield penalties at shallower depths and no effect at deeper depths; and 3) locations with groundwater typically in the subsidy zone display higher yield stability across time. We estimate an average 3.4% yield increase when groundwater levels are at optimum depth, and this effect roughly doubles in dry conditions. Groundwater yield subsidies occur ~35% of years on average across locations, with 75% of the region benefitting in at least 10% of years. Overall, we estimate that groundwater-yield interactions had a net monetary contribution of approximately $10 billion from 1999 to 2018. This study provides empirical evidence for region-wide groundwater yield impacts and further underlines the need for better quantification of groundwater levels and their dynamic responses to short- and long-term weather conditions.

60 APPLIED LIFE SCIENCES↗

An Arabinoxylan Extracted from Corn Grain Is Inhibitory to Cellulase Activity

The maize seed expression system is a powerful platform for recombinant protein production. It has been utilized for high-yield production of industrial cellulases such as endo-1,4-b-Dglucanase (E1) and 1,4-b-D-glucan cellobiohydrolases (CBHI & CBHII). However, inhibitory compounds that could significantly reduce the cellulolytic efficiency were detected even in purified E1 and CBHII samples. After several steps of purification and analysis, the inhibitory compound found in the purified E1 sample had characteristics consistent with a thermostable polysaccharide with a molecular size over 10 kDa. Further polysaccharide analysis confirmed the molecular size of the detected polysaccharide and suggested that it is an arabinoxylan with a high arabinose/xylose ratio. Even though the strict column purification process should have removed water soluble non-protein molecules during protein purification, the inhibitor remained. Here, a possible explanation is that recombinant cellulase can bind to the inhibitor, carry it through all purification steps and finally release it when denatured by heat.

59 BASIC BIOLOGICAL SCIENCES↗

Unique contributions of chlorophyll and nitrogen to predict crop photosynthetic capacity from leaf spectroscopy

The photosynthetic capacity or the CO 2 -saturated photosynthetic rate (Vmax), chlorophyll, and nitrogen are closely linked leaf traits that determine C 4 crop photosynthesis and yield. Accurate, timely, rapid, and non-destructive approaches to predict leaf photosynthetic traits from hyperspectral reflectance are urgently needed for high-throughput crop monitoring to ensure food and bioenergy security. Therefore, this study thoroughly evaluated the state-of-the-art physically based radiative transfer models (RTMs), data-driven partial least squares regression (PLSR), and generalized PLSR (gPLSR) models to estimate leaf traits from leaf-clip hyperspectral reflectance, which was collected from maize (Zea mays L.) bioenergy plots with diverse genotypes, growth stages, treatments with nitrogen fertilizers, and ozone stresses in three growing seasons. The results show that leaf RTMs considering bidirectional effects can give accurate estimates of chlorophyll content (Pearson correlation r=0.95), while gPLSR enabled retrieval of leaf nitrogen concentration (r=0.85). Using PLSR with field measurements for training, the cross-validation indicates that V max can be well predicted from spectra (r=0.81). Here, the integration of chlorophyll content (strongly related to visible spectra) and nitrogen concentration (linked to shortwave infrared signals) can provide better predictions of V max (r=0.71) than only using either chlorophyll or nitrogen individually. This study highlights that leaf chlorophyll content and nitrogen concentration have key and unique contributions to V max prediction.

59 BASIC BIOLOGICAL SCIENCES↗

A leaf-level spectral library to support high-throughput plant phenotyping: predictive accuracy and model transfer

Abstract Leaf-level hyperspectral reflectance has become an effective tool for high-throughput phenotyping of plant leaf traits due to its rapid, low-cost, multi-sensing, and non-destructive nature. However, collecting samples for model calibration can still be expensive, and models show poor transferability among different datasets. This study had three specific objectives: first, to assemble a large library of leaf hyperspectral data (n=2460) from maize and sorghum; second, to evaluate two machine-learning approaches to estimate nine leaf properties (chlorophyll, thickness, water content, nitrogen, phosphorus, potassium, calcium, magnesium, and sulfur); and third, to investigate the usefulness of this spectral library for predicting external datasets (n=445) including soybean and camelina using extra-weighted spiking. Internal cross-validation showed satisfactory performance of the spectral library to estimate all nine traits (mean R2=0.688), with partial least-squares regression outperforming deep neural network models. Models calibrated solely using the spectral library showed degraded performance on external datasets (mean R2=0.159 for camelina, 0.337 for soybean). Models improved significantly when a small portion of external samples (n=20) was added to the library via extra-weighted spiking (mean R2=0.574 for camelina, 0.536 for soybean). The leaf-level spectral library greatly benefits plant physiological and biochemical phenotyping, whilst extra-weight spiking improves model transferability and extends its utility.

59 BASIC BIOLOGICAL SCIENCES↗

Increased bundle‐sheath leakiness of CO 2 during photosynthetic induction shows a lack of coordination between the C 4 and C 3 cycles

Summary Use of a complete dynamic model of NADP‐malic enzyme C 4 photosynthesis indicated that, during transitions from dark or shade to high light, induction of the C 4 pathway was more rapid than that of C 3 , resulting in a predicted transient increase in bundle‐sheath CO 2 leakiness ( ϕ ). Previously, ϕ has been measured at steady state; here we developed a new method, coupling a tunable diode laser absorption spectroscope with a gas‐exchange system to track ϕ in sorghum and maize through the nonsteady‐state condition of photosynthetic induction. In both species, ϕ showed a transient increase to > 0.35 before declining to a steady state of 0.2 by 1500 s after illumination. Average ϕ was 60% higher than at steady state over the first 600 s of induction and 30% higher over the first 1500 s. The transient increase in ϕ , which was consistent with model prediction, indicated that capacity to assimilate CO 2 into the C 3 cycle in the bundle sheath failed to keep pace with the rate of dicarboxylate delivery by the C 4 cycle. Because nonsteady‐state light conditions are the norm in field canopies, the results suggest that ϕ in these major crops in the field is significantly higher and energy conversion efficiency lower than previous measured values under steady‐state conditions.

59 BASIC BIOLOGICAL SCIENCES↗