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Search indexed NASA NTRS and DOE OSTI research on propulsion, heat transfer, battery materials and energy systems. Follow report and document links to the original sources.

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At least 343 records · Page 19
All sourcesNASA NTRSDOE OSTI
NASA NTRS1991

Event-scale relationships between surface velocity, temperature and chlorophyll in the coastal ocean, as seen by satellite

The overall goal of this project was to increase our understanding of processes which determine the temporally varying distributions of surface chlorophyll pigment concentration and surface temperature in the California Current System (CCS) on the time-scale of 'events', i.e., several days to several weeks. We also proposed to investigate seasonal and regional differences in these events. Additionally, we proposed to evaluate methods of estimating surface velocities and horizontal transport of pigment and heat from sequences of AVHRR and CZCS images. The four specific objectives stated in the original proposal were to: (1) test surface current estimates made from sequences of both SST and color images using variations of the statistical method of Emery et al. (1986) and estimate the uncertainties in these satellite-derived surface currents; (2) characterize the spatial and temporal relationships of chlorophyll and temperature in rapidly evolving features for which adequate imagery exist and evaluate the contribution of these events to monthly and seasonal averages; (3) use the methods tested in (1) to determine the nature of the velocity fields in the CCS; and (4) compare the currents, temperature, and currents in different seasons and in different geographic regions.

Strub, P. Ted↗
NASA NTRS1966

On a logical basis for division of responsibilities in statistical practice

The purpose of this paper is to explain principles for division of responsibilities between the statistician and the people that he works with, and reasons why this division of responsibilities is important -- that is, how it improves the performance of both statistician and expert in subject-matter. The aim is to find and illustrate principles of practice by which statisticians may make effective use of their knowledge of theory. The specialist in statistical methods may find himself applying the same basic theory in a dozen different fields in a week, rotating through the same projects the next week. Or, he may work day after day primarily in a single substantive field. Either way, he requires rules of practice. A statement of statistical reliability should present any information that might help the reader to form his own opinion concerning the validity of conclusions likely to be drawn from the results. The aim of a statistical report is to protect the client from seeing merely what he would like to see; to protect him from losses that could come from misuse of results. A further aim is to forestall unwarranted claims of accuracy that the client's public might otherwise accept.

Deming, W. Edwards↗
DOE OSTI2016

TH-CD-207B-12: Quantification of Clinical Feedback On Image Quality Differences Between Two CT Scanner Models

Purpose: This work sought to quantify a radiology team’s assessment of image quality differences between two CT scanner models currently in clinical use, with emphasis on noise and low-contrast detectability (LCD). Methods: A water phantom and a Kagaku anthropomorphic body phantom were scanned on GE Discovery CT750 HD and LightSpeed VCT scanners (4 each) with identical scan parameters and reconstructed to 2.5mm/5.0mm thicknesses. Images of water phantom were analyzed at the scanner console with a built-in LCD tool that uses statistical methods to compute requisite CT-number contrast for 95% confidence in detection of a user-defined object size. LCD value was computed for 5mm, 3mm, and 1mm objects. Analysis of standard deviation and LCD values were performed on Kagaku phantom images within liver, stomach, and spleen. LCD value was computed for 4mm, 3mm, and 1mm objects using a benchmarked MATLAB implementation of the GE scanner-console tool. Results: Water LCD values were larger (poorer performance) for all HD scanners compared to VCT scanners. Mean scanner model difference in requisite CT-number contrast for 5mm, 3mm, and 1mm objects for 5.0mm/2.5mm images was 3.0%/3.4% (p=0.02/p=0.10), 5.3%/5.7% (0.00002/0.02), and 8.5%/8.2% (0.0004/0.002), respectively. Mean standard deviations within Kagaku phantom ROIs were greater in HD compared to VCT images, with mean differences for the liver, stomach, and spleen for 5.0mm/2.5mm of 16%/12% (p=0.04/0.10), 8%/12% (0.15/0.11), and 16%/15% (0.05/0.11), respectively. Mean LCD value difference between HD and VCT scanners over all ROIs for 4mm, 3m, and 1mm objects and 5.0mm/2.5mm was 34%/9%, 16%/8%, and 18%/10%, respectively. HD scanners outperformed VCT scanners only for the 4mm stomach object. Conclusion: Using both water and anthropomorphic phantoms, it was shown that HD scanners are outperformed by VCT scanners with respect to noise and LCD in a consistent and in most cases statistically significant manner. The relationship between statistical and clinical significance demands further work.

60 APPLIED LIFE SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2017

Model Independent Approach to the Single Photoelectron Calibration of Photomultiplier Tubes

The accurate calibration of photomultiplier tubes is critical in a wide variety of applications for which it is necessary to know the absolute number of detected photons or precisely determine the resolution of the signal. Conventional calibration methods rely on fitting the photomultiplier response to a low intensity light source with analytical approximations to the single photoelectron distribution. We show that this approach often leads to biased estimates due to an inability to model the full distribution accurately, especially at low charge values. We present a simple statistical method to extract the relevant single photoelectron calibration parameters (first two central moments) without making any assumptions about the underlying single photoelectron distribution. We illustrate the use of this method through the calibration of a Hamamatsu R11410 photomultiplier tube and study the accuracy and precision of the method using Monte Carlo simulations. The method is found to have significantly reduced bias compared to conventional methods and works under a wide range of light intensities, making it suitable for the simultaneous calibration of large arrays of photomultiplier tubes where uniform illumination may not be possible.

46 INSTRUMENTATION RELATED TO NUCLEAR SCIENCE AND ↗
NASA NTRS1990

Analysis of AVHRR, CZCS and historical in situ data off the Oregon Coast

The original scientific objectives of this grant were to: (1) characterize the seasonal cycles and interannual variability for phytoplankton concentrations and sea surface temperature (SST) in the California Current using satellite data; and (2) to explore the spatial and temporal relationship between these variables and surface wind forcing. An additional methodological objective was to develop statistical methods for forming mean fields, which minimize the effects of random data gaps and errors in the irregularly sampled CZCS (Coastal Zone Color Scanner) and AVHRR (Advanced Very High Resolution Radiometer) satellite data. A final task was to evaluate the level of uncertainty in the wind fields used for the statistical analysis. Funding in the first year included part of the cost of an image processing system to enable this and other projects to process and analyze satellite data. This report consists of summaries of the major projects carried out with all or partial support from this grant. The appendices include a list of papers and professional presentations supported by the grant, as well as reprints of the major papers and reports.

Strub, P. Ted↗
DOE OSTI2016

Nuclear Forensics for Irradiated Materials using Kernel Regression Models

The ultimate purpose of nuclear forensics is to locate the origin of nuclear and other radioactive materials out of regulatory control used in nuclear security events such as classical forensics. For this purpose, some specific characteristics of interdicted materials (referred to as 'signatures') should be defined to compare the known sample database. In some cases, involved with irradiated material, the signatures could be specific amount of fission product inventory depending on reactor operational histories such as reactor type, initial enrichment, burn up rate of nuclear fuel and cooling period after irradiation in the reactor. In order to make inference model for irradiated material for nuclear forensics, we suggested 3 ways as follows; (i) analyzing ORIGEN produced nuclear substances for the fission product inventory, (ii) classifying the range of reactor type, (iii) predicting the operational history from the fission product inventory. In terms of nuclear substance analysis, the construction of spent fuel database has been internationally carried out since ITWG (Nuclear Smuggling International Technical Working Group) was established in 1995. However, enough sample data cannot be obtained in Korea to determine reactor type and operational histories because analyzing nuclear substances have been limited due to the international regulation. Thus, this study does not mention how to obtain mass or ratios of nuclides for the spent fuel. We just have generated simulation sample data as a fission product inventory using ORIGEN to construct spent fuel database. When unidentified radioactive materials are discovered, it is assumed that mass or ratios of the nuclides are analyzed by certain methods which are available in Korea as well as other countries. Then, a reactor type is determined, and finally, regression model can locate the origin or source of the radioactive materials by inferring operational histories using the fission product inventory. There are some studies on the classification of reactor type using statistical methods. As a part of predicting the operational history, this paper focuses on the development of spent fuel inference algorithm for nuclear forensics to estimate reactor operational histories that reflect characteristics of a reactor from the fission product inventory. The spent fuel inference algorithm for nuclear forensics has been developed on the basis of Kernel Regression (KR) which can conditionally generate the estimated output data by giving weight depending on geometric distance between sample data and input data. Also the KR which comprises Auto-Associative KR and Inferential KR have some benefits that can estimate only using data without assumption for specific physical model and re-learning process. Auto-associative KR (AAKR) was used to sort out outliers of input data and Inferential KR (IKR) was carried out to predict the operational histories for spent fuel. All of regression algorithms were performed in R programming tool. From the validation of both AAKR and IKR, it is expected that kernel regression has enough accuracy to be applied to nuclear forensics for spent fuel. Once the nuclear substance is measured to fill the fission product inventory with a certain reactor type, this kernel regression algorithm would predict the operational histories of spent fuel with high accuracy. Finally, this information is expected to be useful to find the origin of irradiated materials. (authors)

11 NUCLEAR FUEL CYCLE AND FUEL MATERIALS↗
DOE OSTI2015

Determination of critical experiment correlations using the sampler sequence within scale 6.2 - 14602

The validation of neutron transport methods used in nuclear criticality safety analyses is required by consensus American National Standards Institute/American Nuclear Society (ANSI/ANS) standards. In the last decade, there has been an increased interest in correlations among critical experiments used in validation that have shared physical attributes and which impact the independence of each measurement. The statistical methods included in many of the frequently cited guidance documents on performing validation calculations incorporate the assumption that all individual measurements are independent, so little guidance is available to practitioners on the topic. Typical guidance includes recommendations to select experiments from multiple facilities and experiment series in an attempt to minimize the impact of correlations or common-cause errors in experiments. Recent efforts have been made both to determine the magnitude of such correlations between experiments and to develop and apply methods for adjusting the bias and bias uncertainty to account for the correlations. This paper describes recent work performed at Oak Ridge National Laboratory using the Sampler sequence from the SCALE code system to develop experimental correlations using a Monte Carlo sampling technique. Sampler will be available for the first time with the release of SCALE 6.2, and a brief introduction to the methods used to calculate experiment correlations within this new sequence is presented in this paper. Techniques to utilize these correlations in the establishment of upper subcritical limits are the subject of a companion paper and will not be discussed here. Example experimental uncertainties and correlation coefficients are presented for a variety of low-enriched uranium water-moderated lattice experiments selected for use in a benchmark exercise by the Working Party on Nuclear Criticality Safety Subgroup on Uncertainty Analysis in Criticality Safety Analyses. The results include studies on the effect of fuel rod pitch on the correlations, and some observations are also made regarding difficulties in determining experimental correlations using the Monte Carlo sampling technique. (authors)

42 ENGINEERING↗
DOE OSTI2024

Improved Subseasonal Forecasting of Extreme Polar Vortices Using Machine Learning

Our research was focused on forecasting the position and shape of the winter stratospheric polar vortex at a subseasonal timescale of 15 days in advance. To achieve this, we employed both statistical and neural network machine learning techniques. The analysis was performed on 42 winter seasons of reanalysis data provided by NASA giving us a total of 6,342 days of data. The state of the polar vortex for determined by using geometric moments to calculate the centroid latitude and the aspect ratio of an ellipse fit onto the vortex. Timeseries for thirty additional precursors were calculated to help improve the predictive capabilities of the algorithm. Feature importance of these precursors was performed using random forest to measure the predictive importance and the ideal number of precursors. Then, using the precursors identified as important, various statistical methods were tested for predictive accuracy with random forest and nearest neighbor performing the best. An echo state network, a type of recurrent neural network that features sparsely connected hidden layer and a reduced number of trainable parameters that allows for rapid training and testing, was also implemented for the forecasting problem. Hyperparameter tuning was performed for each methods using a subset of the training data. The algorithms were trained and tuned on the first 41 years of data, then tested for accuracy on the final year. In general, the centroid latitude of the polar vortex proved easier to predict than the aspect ratio across all algorithms. Random forest outperformed other statistical forecasting algorithms overall but struggled to predict extreme values. Forecasting from echo state network suggested a strong predictive capability past 15 days, but further work is required to fully realize the potential of recurrent neural network approaches.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2017

The use of multiwavelets for uncertainty estimation in seismic surface wave dispersion.

This report describes a new single-station analysis method to estimate the dispersion and uncer- tainty of seismic surface waves using the multiwavelet transform. Typically, when estimating the dispersion of a surface wave using only a single seismic station, the seismogram is decomposed into a series of narrow-band realizations using a bank of narrow-band filters. By then enveloping and normalizing the filtered seismograms and identifying the maximum power as a function of frequency, the group velocity can be estimated if the source-receiver distance is known. However, using the filter bank method, there is no robust way to estimate uncertainty. In this report, I in- troduce a new method of estimating the group velocity that includes an estimate of uncertainty. The method is similar to the conventional filter bank method, but uses a class of functions, called Slepian wavelets, to compute a series of wavelet transforms of the data. Each wavelet transform is mathematically similar to a filter bank, however, the time-frequency tradeoff is optimized. By taking multiple wavelet transforms, I form a population of dispersion estimates from which stan- dard statistical methods can be used to estimate uncertainty. I demonstrate the utility of this new method by applying it to synthetic data as well as ambient-noise surface-wave cross-correlelograms recorded by the University of Nevada Seismic Network.

58 GEOSCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2024

Measurement of the W-boson mass and width with the ATLAS detector using proton–proton collisions at $\sqrt{s}=7$ TeV

Proton-proton collision data recorded by the ATLAS detector in 2011, at a centre-of-mass energy of 7 TeV, have been used for an improved determination of the W-boson mass and a first measurement of the W-boson width at the LHC. Recent fits to the proton parton distribution functions are incorporated in the measurement procedure and an improved statistical method is used to increase the measurement precision. The measurement of the W-boson mass yields a value of m w = 80,366.5 ± 9.8 (stat.) ± 12.5 (syst.) MeV = 80,366.5 ± 15.9 MeV, and the width is measured as Γ w = 2202 ± 32 (stat.) ± 34 (syst.) MeV = 2202 ± 47 MeV. The first uncertainty components are statistical and the second correspond to the experimental and physics-modelling systematic uncertainties. Both results are consistent with the expectation from fits to electroweak precision data. The present measurement of m w is compatible with and supersedes the previous measurement performed using the same data.

72 PHYSICS OF ELEMENTARY PARTICLES AND FIELDS↗
DOE OSTI2015

High Throughput, High Precision Hot Testing Tool for HBLED Wafer Level Testing

The Socrates research effort developed an in depth understanding and demonstrated in a prototype tool new precise methods for teh characterization of color characteristics and flux from individual LEDs for the production of uniform quality lighting. This effort was focused on improving the color quality and consistency of solid state lighting and potentially reducing characterization costs for all LED product types. The patented laser hot testing method was demonstrated to be far more accurate than all current state of the art color and flux characterization methods in use by the solid state lighting industry today. A seperately patented LED grouping method (statistical binning) was demonstrated to be a useful approach to improving utilization of entire lots of large color and flux distributions of manufactured LEDs for high quality color solid-state lighting. At the conclusion of the research in late 2015 the solid-state lighting industry was however generally satisfied with its existing production methods for high quality color products for the small segment of customers that demand it, albeit with added costs.

29 ENERGY PLANNING, POLICY, AND ECONOMY↗
NASA NTRS1999

Uncertainty Analysis of Instrument Calibration and Application

Experimental aerodynamic researchers require estimated precision and bias uncertainties of measured physical quantities, typically at 95 percent confidence levels. Uncertainties of final computed aerodynamic parameters are obtained by propagation of individual measurement uncertainties through the defining functional expressions. In this paper, rigorous mathematical techniques are extended to determine precision and bias uncertainties of any instrument-sensor system. Through this analysis, instrument uncertainties determined through calibration are now expressed as functions of the corresponding measurement for linear and nonlinear univariate and multivariate processes. Treatment of correlated measurement precision error is developed. During laboratory calibration, calibration standard uncertainties are assumed to be an order of magnitude less than those of the instrument being calibrated. Often calibration standards do not satisfy this assumption. This paper applies rigorous statistical methods for inclusion of calibration standard uncertainty and covariance due to the order of their application. The effects of mathematical modeling error on calibration bias uncertainty are quantified. The effects of experimental design on uncertainty are analyzed. The importance of replication is emphasized, techniques for estimation of both bias and precision uncertainties using replication are developed. Statistical tests for stationarity of calibration parameters over time are obtained.

Tripp, John S.↗
NASA NTRS2010

Establishing Consensus Turbulence Statistics for Hot Subsonic Jets

Many tasks in fluids engineering require knowledge of the turbulence in jets. There is a strong, although fragmented, literature base for low order statistics, such as jet spread and other meanvelocity field characteristics. Some sources, particularly for low speed cold jets, also provide turbulence intensities that are required for validating Reynolds-averaged Navier-Stokes (RANS) Computational Fluid Dynamics (CFD) codes. There are far fewer sources for jet spectra and for space-time correlations of turbulent velocity required for aeroacoustics applications, although there have been many singular publications with various unique statistics, such as Proper Orthogonal Decomposition, designed to uncover an underlying low-order dynamical description of turbulent jet flow. As the complexity of the statistic increases, the number of flows for which the data has been categorized and assembled decreases, making it difficult to systematically validate prediction codes that require high-level statistics over a broad range of jet flow conditions. For several years, researchers at NASA have worked on developing and validating jet noise prediction codes. One such class of codes, loosely called CFD-based or statistical methods, uses RANS CFD to predict jet mean and turbulent intensities in velocity and temperature. These flow quantities serve as the input to the acoustic source models and flow-sound interaction calculations that yield predictions of far-field jet noise. To develop this capability, a catalog of turbulent jet flows has been created with statistics ranging from mean velocity to space-time correlations of Reynolds stresses. The present document aims to document this catalog and to assess the accuracies of the data, e.g. establish uncertainties for the data. This paper covers the following five tasks: Document acquisition and processing procedures used to create the particle image velocimetry (PIV) datasets. Compare PIV data with hotwire and laser Doppler velocimetry (LDV) data published in the open literature. Compare different datasets acquired at roughly the same flow conditions to establish uncertainties. Create a consensus dataset for a range of hot jet flows, including uncertainty bands. Analyze this consensus dataset for self-consistency and compare jet characteristics to those of the open literature. One final objective fulfilled by this work was the demonstration of a universal scaling for the jet flow fields, at least within the region of interest to aeroacoustics. The potential core length and the spread rate of the half-velocity radius were used to collapse of the mean and turbulent velocity fields over the first 20 jet diameters in a highly satisfying manner.

Bridges, James↗
DOE OSTI2023

Predicting Biomass Yields of Advanced Switchgrass Cultivars for Bioenergy and Ecosystem Services Using Machine Learning

The production of advanced perennial bioenergy crops within marginal areas of the agricultural landscape is gaining interest due to its potential to sustainably produce feedstocks for biofuels and bioproducts while also improving the sustainability and resilience of commodity crop production. However, predicting the biomass yields of this production system is challenging because marginal areas are often relatively small and spread around agricultural fields and are typically associated with various abiotic conditions that limit crop production. Machine learning (ML) offers a viable solution as a biomass yield prediction tool because it is suited to predicting relationships with complex functional associations. The objectives of this study were to (1) evaluate the accuracy of commonly applied ML algorithms in agricultural applications for predicting the biomass yields of advanced switchgrass cultivars for bioenergy and ecosystem services and (2) determine the most important biomass yield predictors. Datasets on biomass yield, weather, land marginality, soil properties, and agronomic management were generated from three field study sites in two U.S. Midwest states (Illinois and Iowa) over three growing seasons. The ML algorithms evaluated in the study included random forests (RFs), gradient boosting machines (GBMs), artificial neural networks (ANNs), K-neighbors regressor (KNR), AdaBoost regressor (ABR), and partial least squares regression (PLSR). Coefficient of determination (R 2 ) and mean absolute error (MAE) were used to evaluate the predictive accuracy of the tested algorithms. Results showed that the ensemble methods, RF (R 2 = 0.86, MAE = 0.62 Mg/ha), GBM (R 2 = 0.88, MAE = 0.57 Mg/ha), and GBM (R 2 = 0.78, MAE = 0.66 Mg/ha), were the most accurate in predicting biomass yields of the Independence, Liberty, and Shawnee switchgrass cultivars, respectively. This is in agreement with similar studies that apply ML to multi-feature problems where traditional statistical methods are less applicable and datasets used were considered to be relatively small for ANNs. Consistent with previous studies on switchgrass, the most important predictors of biomass yield included average annual temperature, average growing season temperature, sum of the growing season precipitation, field slope, and elevation. This study helps pave the way for applying ML as a management tool for alternative bioenergy landscapes where understanding agronomic and environmental performance of a multifunctional cropping system seasonally and interannually at the sub-field scale is critical.

09 BIOMASS FUELS↗
NASA NTRS2023

Uncertainty Analysis of the NASA Glenn 8- by 6-Foot Supersonic Wind Tunnel 2019 Characterization Test 14-Foot, 5.8 Percent Test Section Porosity

This paper presents methods and results of a measurement uncertainty analysis that was performed for the 8- by 6-foot Supersonic Wind Tunnel located at the NASA Glenn Research Center. The uncertainty analysis is based on data collected during a characterization test following major structural modifications to the facility and upgrades to the facility’s data and control systems. The statistical methods and engineering judgments used to estimate elemental uncertainties are described in this report. The Monte Carlo method of propagating uncertainty was selected to determine the uncertainty of calculated variables of interest. A description of the Monte Carlo method as applied for this analysis is provided. The primary variable of interest (VOI) for this facility is free stream Mach number. In addition to determining the uncertainty in Mach number, the uncertainty in free stream values of static pressure, total pressure, dynamic pressure, total temperature, static temperature, Reynolds number, and air speed were also calculated. Uncertainty results are presented as random (unpredictable variation in repeated measurements), systematic (potential offset between observed and true value), and total (random and systematic combined) uncertainty for Mach number. Systematic uncertainty results are presented for the other VOIs. Individual uncertainty sources are presented both dimensionally and as percent contributions to uncertainty in all VOIs, to aid in the identification of primary uncertainty sources.

Uncertainty Analysis↗
NASA NTRS2002

A statistical model for interpreting computerized dynamic posturography data

Computerized dynamic posturography (CDP) is widely used for assessment of altered balance control. CDP trials are quantified using the equilibrium score (ES), which ranges from zero to 100, as a decreasing function of peak sway angle. The problem of how best to model and analyze ESs from a controlled study is considered. The ES often exhibits a skewed distribution in repeated trials, which can lead to incorrect inference when applying standard regression or analysis of variance models. Furthermore, CDP trials are terminated when a patient loses balance. In these situations, the ES is not observable, but is assigned the lowest possible score--zero. As a result, the response variable has a mixed discrete-continuous distribution, further compromising inference obtained by standard statistical methods. Here, we develop alternative methodology for analyzing ESs under a stochastic model extending the ES to a continuous latent random variable that always exists, but is unobserved in the event of a fall. Loss of balance occurs conditionally, with probability depending on the realized latent ES. After fitting the model by a form of quasi-maximum-likelihood, one may perform statistical inference to assess the effects of explanatory variables. An example is provided, using data from the NIH/NIA Baltimore Longitudinal Study on Aging.

NASA Discipline Neuroscience↗
DOE OSTI2019

Progress in Accurate Chemical Kinetic Modeling, Simulations, and Parameter Estimation for Heterogeneous Catalysis

Chemical kinetic modeling in heterogeneous catalysis is gaining ground in its ability to provide qualitatively or even quantitatively accurate prediction of real-world behavior because of new advances in the physical and chemical representations of catalytic systems, estimation of relevant kinetic parameters, and capabilities in kinetic modeling. This Perspective chronicles current trends and future areas of advancement in chemical kinetic modeling, simulation, and parameter estimation: ranging from elementary step calculations to multiscale modeling to the role of advanced statistical methods for incorporating uncertainties in predictions. Multiple new or growing methodologies are covered, examples are provided, and forward-looking topics for advancement are noted.

37 INORGANIC, ORGANIC, PHYSICAL, AND ANALYTICAL CH↗