Search NASA⌕ Search

SEARCH · Search NASA

Results for “Model fitting”

Search indexed NASA NTRS and DOE OSTI research on propulsion, heat transfer, battery materials and energy systems. Follow report and document links to the original sources.

Quote a phrase for an exact phrase match. Source license links do not imply unrestricted reuse.

At least 343 records · Page 19

WHEN DID ROUND DISK GALAXIES FORM?

When and how galaxy morphology, such as the disk and bulge seen in the present-day universe, emerged is still not clear. In the universe at z ≳ 2, galaxies with various morphologies are seen, and star-forming galaxies at z ∼ 2 show the intrinsic shape of bar-like structures. Then, when did the round disk structure form? Here we take a simple and straightforward approach to see the epoch when a round disk galaxy population emerged by constraining the intrinsic shape statistically based on the apparent axial ratio distribution of galaxies. We derived the distributions of the apparent axial ratios in the rest-frame optical light (∼5000 Å) of star-forming main-sequence galaxies at 2.5 > z > 1.4, 1.4 > z > 0.85, and 0.85 > z > 0.5, and found that their apparent axial ratios show peaky distributions at z ≳ 0.85, while a rather flat distribution at the lower redshift. By using a tri-axial model (A > B > C) for the intrinsic shape, we found that the best-fit models give the peaks of the B/A distribution of 0.81 ± 0.04, 0.84 ± 0.04, and 0.92 ± 0.05 at 2.5 > z > 1.4, 1.4 > z > 0.85, and 0.85 > z > 0.5, respectively. The last value is close to the local value of 0.95. Thickness (C/A) is ∼0.25 at all the redshifts and is close to the local value (0.21). The results indicate that the shape of the star-forming galaxies in the main sequence changes gradually, and that the round disk is established at around z ∼ 0.9. The establishment of the round disk may be due to the cessation of a violent interaction between galaxies or the growth of a bulge and/or a supermassive black hole residing at the center of a galaxy that dissolves the bar structure.

79 ASTRONOMY AND ASTROPHYSICS↗

Electronic Structure and Optical Properties of Cu 2 ZnGeSe 4 . First-Principles Calculations and Vacuum-Ultraviolet Spectroscopic Ellipsometric Studies

Cu 2 ZnGeSe 4 is of interest for the development of next-generation thin-film photovoltaic technologies. To understand its electronic structure and related fundamental optical properties, we perform first-principles calculations for three structural variations: kesterite, stannite, and primitive-mixed CuAu phases. The calculated data are compared with the room-temperature dielectric functionϵ=ϵ1+iϵ2 spectrum of polycrystalline Cu 2 ZnGeSe 4 determined by vacuum-ultraviolet spectroscopic ellipsometry in the photon-energy range of 0.7 to 9.0 eV. Ellipsometric data are modeled with the sum of eight Tauc-Lorentz oscillators, and the best-fit model yields the band-gap and Tauc-gap energies of 1.25 and 1.19 eV, respectively. A comparison of overall peak shapes and relative intensities between experimental spectra and the calculated ϵ data for three structural variations suggests that the sample may not have a pure (ordered) kesterite phase. We found that the complex refractive index N=n+ik, normal-incidence reflectivity R, and absorption coefficients α are calculated from the modeled ϵ spectrum, which are also compared with those of Cu 2 ZnSnSe 4 . The spectral features for Cu 2 ZnGeSe 4 appear to be weaker and broader than those for Cu 2 ZnSnSe 4 , which is possibly due to more structural imperfections presented in Cu 2 ZnGeSe 4 than Cu 2 ZnSnSe 4 .

14 SOLAR ENERGY↗

Estimation in a modified binomial distribution

Estimation techniques in a modified binomial distribution, developed to describe thunderstorm activity over a small area at Cape Kennedy, Florida, are compared. A compound model is also developed and compared with the original model. The minimum Chi square technique is compared with the maximum likelihood and method of moments techniques. The minimum Chi square technique, although useful in complicated models, compared poorly compared to the other techniques. The maximum likelihood and method of moments were comparable. The compound model fit better in every case based on a likelihood ratio test comparing the compound model with the modified binomial model using maximum likelihood estimators.

Carter, M. C.↗

The surface albedo distribution of Pluto

Two distinct configurations have been established for the surface albedo distribution of Pluto on the basis of a model fitting absolute photometry data obtained over the 1954-1986 period. The two sets of model parameters primarily differ in the equatorial spots; these generate the rotational lightcurve, while the polar caps yield the orbital lightcurve. While the two models predict similar event lightcurves through the end of 1987, they begin to markedly differ in 1988. Mutual event observations made on January 13, 1988 exhibit agreement with only one of the equatorial spot configurations, having one bright and one dark spot.

Buie, Marc W.↗

Impacts of Land Carbon Flux Variability on Variations in Atmospheric CO2

To better understand the role of atmospheric CO2 in the global carbon cycle, it is important to understand the factors that control its variability in time and space. Here we investigate these factors using a coupled land-atmosphere modeling system (the NASA GEOS-5 model) fitted with land carbon physics and atmospheric CO2 transport. To separate the influences of land carbon flux variability and atmospheric transport variability on the variability of CO2 concentrations, we conducted two carbon-fitted GEOS-5 AGCM simulations run in replay mode (a technique that guides the model's weather to match that of the MERRA-2 reanalysis): (i) a control simulation of 15-year carbon cycle dynamics and climate, and (ii) a simulation in which the climatological seasonal cycles of net biosphere production (NBP), as determined from diagnostics produced in the control experiment, are applied at the surface to the atmosphere instead. The impact of land flux variability on atmospheric CO2 variability is then isolated by subtracting the variability inherent in the second simulation (as induced, e.g., by strong El Nino conditions) from that in the control. These results are also presented in the context of supplemental simulations that have examined the impact of imposed drought in a free running AGCM simulation on carbon fluxes and atmospheric CO2 variability.

Lee, Eunjee↗

Statistical Study on Multispacecraft Widespread Solar Energetic Particle Events During Solar Cycle 24

We conduct a statistical study on the large three-spacecraft widespread solar energetic particle (SEP) events. Longitudinal distributions of the peak intensities, onset delays, and relation between the SEP intensity, coronal mass ejection (CME) shock speed, width, and the kinetic energy of the CME have been investigated. We apply a Gaussian fit to obtain the SEP intensity Io and distribution width and a forward-modeling fit to determine the true shock speed and true CME width. We found a good correction between and connection angel to the flare site and Io and the kinetic energy of the CME. By including the true chock speed and true CME widths, we reduce root-mean-square errors on the predicted SEP intensity by ~41% for protons compared to Richards et al.'s (2014, https://doi.org/10.1007/s11207-014-0524-8) prediction. The improved correction between the CME kinetic energy and SEP intensity provides strong evidence for the CME-shock acceleration theory of SEPs. In addition, we found that electron and proton release time delays (DTs) relative to Type II radio bursts increase with connection angles. The average electron (proton) DT is ~14 (32) min for strongly anisotropic events and ~2.5 (4.4) hr for weakly anisotropic events. Poor magnetic connectivity and large scattering effects are two main reasons to cause large delays.

Xie, H.↗

Measurement of atom resolvability in cryo-EM maps with Q-scores

Cryogenic electron microscopy (cryo-EM) maps are now at the point where resolvability of individual atoms can be achieved. However, resolvability is not necessarily uniform throughout the map. We introduce a quantitative parameter to characterize the resolvability of individual atoms in cryo-EM maps, the map Q-score. Q-scores can be calculated for atoms in proteins, nucleic acids, water, ligands and other solvent atoms, using models fitted to or derived from cryo-EM maps. Q-scores can also be averaged to represent larger features such as entire residues and nucleotides. Averaged over entire models, Q-scores correlate very well with the estimated resolution of cryo-EM maps for both protein and RNA. Here, assuming the models they are calculated from are well fitted to the map, Q-scores can be used as a measure of resolvability in cryo-EM maps at various scales, from entire macromolecules down to individual atoms. Q-score analysis of multiple cryo-EM maps of the same proteins derived from different laboratories confirms the reproducibility of structural features from side chains down to water and ion atoms.

59 BASIC BIOLOGICAL SCIENCES↗

X Persei: The X-Ray Halo and Spectrum of a High-Latitude X-Ray Binary

The observations were completed on February 25,2003. Although the source was in the FOV for 31.4 ksec, only 18.2 ksec of data were usable due to a strong flare in the first part of the observations. We have extracted the X-ray halo from the good portion of the data, and were then faced with the problem of calibrating the far-off-axis point spread function, which is needed only for X-ray halo analysis; the same problem affected Chandra halo observations. We used data from 3C273, MCG 6-30-15, LMC X-1, and Her X-1 to measure the PSF, and found that it is reasonably well fit with a power law of the form PSF(theta) = A theta^-G, where A = 0.0034 arcmin^-2, and G = 3.05 for energies between 1-4 keV. This suggests there are fewer large dust grains along the When fitting the spectrum of X Persei, we found NH = 3e21 cm^-2, as expected. However, the X-ray halo (using a Mathis, Rumpl, Nordsieck 1977 dust model) required at most a column density of 1.4+/-0.1 e21 cm^-2; other models required sightline to X Per than would have been expected. In addition, a smoothly distributed dust model fit the observations better than a single cloud model, also against our expectations. We are in the process of writing a paper to be submitted to ApJ with these results, and will also present them at the 2004 HEAD meeting in New Orleans.

Mushotzky, Richard↗

Deep Learning and Likelihood Approaches for Viral Phylogeography Converge on the Same Answers Whether the Inference Model Is Right or Wrong

Abstract Analysis of phylogenetic trees has become an essential tool in epidemiology. Likelihood-based methods fit models to phylogenies to draw inferences about the phylodynamics and history of viral transmission. However, these methods are often computationally expensive, which limits the complexity and realism of phylodynamic models and makes them ill-suited for informing policy decisions in real-time during rapidly developing outbreaks. Likelihood-free methods using deep learning are pushing the boundaries of inference beyond these constraints. In this paper, we extend, compare, and contrast a recently developed deep learning method for likelihood-free inference from trees. We trained multiple deep neural networks using phylogenies from simulated outbreaks that spread among 5 locations and found they achieve close to the same levels of accuracy as Bayesian inference under the true simulation model. We compared robustness to model misspecification of a trained neural network to that of a Bayesian method. We found that both models had comparable performance, converging on similar biases. We also implemented a method of uncertainty quantification called conformalized quantile regression that we demonstrate has similar patterns of sensitivity to model misspecification as Bayesian highest posterior density (HPD) and greatly overlap with HPDs, but have lower precision (more conservative). Finally, we trained and tested a neural network against phylogeographic data from a recent study of the SARS-Cov-2 pandemic in Europe and obtained similar estimates of region-specific epidemiological parameters and the location of the common ancestor in Europe. Along with being as accurate and robust as likelihood-based methods, our trained neural networks are on average over 3 orders of magnitude faster after training. Our results support the notion that neural networks can be trained with simulated data to accurately mimic the good and bad statistical properties of the likelihood functions of generative phylogenetic models.

Evolutionary Biology↗

Gravitational models for mission planning

A fitted truncated model is developed and any differences between this fitted model and one derived by simply truncating are analyzed. Based on the study, recommendations are made for an appropriate model for use in a mission planning environment.

Mueller, A. C.↗

Combined Neyman–Pearson chi-square: An improved approximation to the Poisson-likelihood chi-square

We describe an approximation to the widely-used Poisson-likelihood chi-square using a linear combination of Neyman’s and Pearson’s chi-squares, namely “combined Neyman–Pearson chi-square” ($X^2_{CNP}$). Through analytical derivations and toy model simulations, we show that leads to a significantly smaller bias on the best-fit model parameters compared to those using either Neyman’s or Pearson’s chi-square. When the computational cost of using the Poisson-likelihood chi-square is high, $X^2_{CNP}$ provides a good alternative given its natural connection to the covariance matrix formalism.

72 PHYSICS OF ELEMENTARY PARTICLES AND FIELDS↗

Cosmological implications of baryon acoustic oscillation measurements

Here, we derive constraints on cosmological parameters and tests of dark energy models from the combination of baryon acoustic oscillation (BAO) measurements with cosmic microwave background (CMB) data and a recent reanalysis of Type Ia supernova (SN) data. Particularly, we take advantage of high-precision BAO measurements from galaxy clustering and the Lyman-α forest (LyaF) in the SDSS-III Baryon Oscillation Spectroscopic Survey (BOSS). Treating the BAO scale as an uncalibrated standard ruler, BAO data alone yield a high confidence detection of dark energy; in combination with the CMB angular acoustic scale they further imply a nearly flat universe. Adding the CMB-calibrated physical scale of the sound horizon, the combination of BAO and SN data into an “inverse distance ladder” yields a measurement of H 0 =67.3±1.1 km s -1 Mpc -1 , with 1.7% precision. This measurement assumes standard prerecombination physics but is insensitive to assumptions about dark energy or space curvature, so agreement with CMB-based estimates that assume a flat ΛCDM cosmology is an important corroboration of this minimal cosmological model. For constant dark energy (Λ), our BAO+SN+CMB combination yields matter density Ω m =0.301±0.008 and curvature Ω k =-0.003±0.003. When we allow more general forms of evolving dark energy, the BAO+SN+CMB parameter constraints are always consistent with flat ΛCDM values at ≈1σ. And while the overall χ 2 of model fits is satisfactory, the LyaF BAO measurements are in moderate (2–2.5σ) tension with model predictions. Models with early dark energy that tracks the dominant energy component at high redshift remain consistent with our expansion history constraints, and they yield a higher H 0 and lower matter clustering amplitude, improving agreement with some low redshift observations. Expansion history alone yields an upper limit on the summed mass of neutrino species, Σm ν <0.56 eV (95% confidence), improving to Σm ν <0.25 eV if we include the lensing signal in the Planck CMB power spectrum. In a flat ΛCDM model that allows extra relativistic species, our data combination yields N eff =3.43±0.26; while the LyaF BAO data prefer higher Neff when excluding galaxy BAO, the galaxy BAO alone favor N eff ≈3. Finally, when structure growth is extrapolated forward from the CMB to low redshift, standard dark energy models constrained by our data predict a level of matter clustering that is high compared to most, but not all, observational estimates.

79 ASTRONOMY AND ASTROPHYSICS↗

Monte Carlo Study of Imaging Plate Response to Laser-Driven Aluminum Ion Beams

We measured the response of BAS-TR imaging plate (IP) to energetic aluminum ions up to 222 MeV, and compared it with predictions from a Monte Carlo simulation code using two different IP response models. Energetic aluminum ions were produced with an intense laser pulse, and the response was evaluated from cross-calibration between CR-39 track detector and IP energy spectrometer. For the first time, we obtained the response function of the BAS-TR IP for aluminum ions with a kinetic energy as high as 222 MeV. On close examination of the two IP response models, we confirm that the exponential model fits our experimental data better. Moreover, we find that the IP sensitivity in the exponential model is nearly constant in this energy range, suggesting that the response function can be determined even with little experimental data.

Won, Junho↗

ESTIMATING THE RADIUS OF THE CONVECTIVE CORE OF MAIN-SEQUENCE STARS FROM OBSERVED OSCILLATION FREQUENCIES

The determination of the size of the convective core of main-sequence stars is usually dependent on the construction of models of stars. Here we introduce a method to estimate the radius of the convective core of main-sequence stars with masses between about 1.1 and 1.5 M {sub ⊙} from observed frequencies of low-degree p -modes. A formula is proposed to achieve the estimation. The values of the radius of the convective core of four known stars are successfully estimated by the formula. The radius of the convective core of KIC 9812850 estimated by the formula is 0.140 ± 0.028 R {sub ⊙}. In order to confirm this prediction, a grid of evolutionary models was computed. The value of the convective-core radius of the best-fit model of KIC 9812850 is 0.149 R {sub ⊙}, which is in good agreement with that estimated by the formula from observed frequencies. The formula aids in understanding the interior structure of stars directly from observed frequencies. The understanding is not dependent on the construction of models.

79 ASTRONOMY AND ASTROPHYSICS↗

Variability studies of 3C 371

The compact extragalactic radio source, 3C 371, was observed with the X-ray detectors of the EXOSAT satellite for 19.5 hours in 2 observing periods separated by 18 days. This resulted in the discovery of X-ray variability of the source on time scales between 8 hours and about 25 minutes and the confirmation of earlier reports of variability on longer time scales. The short time scale variability agrees remarkably well with earlier predictions based on fitting multifrequency data from the source to a relativistically beamed inhomogeneous synchrotron self-Compton (SSC) jet model. This SSC model is frequently applied to BL Lac objects and related sources, such as 3C 371. However, the number of free parameters in model fits tends to be large, and so independent support such as from this work is important. The X-ray spectral results for 3C 371 also may provide qualitative support for the SSC model in that the spectrum probably consists of two components, with the steeper one at low photon energies. In terms of the model, the low-energy spectrum would be dominated by synchrotron emission extending down to radio energies, whereas the higher energy X-rays would be dominated by Compton radiation.

Worrall, D. M.↗

SUPERMASSIVE BLACK HOLES AND THEIR HOST SPHEROIDS. I. DISASSEMBLING GALAXIES

Several recent studies have performed galaxy decompositions to investigate correlations between the black hole mass and various properties of the host spheroid, but they have not converged on the same conclusions. This is because their models for the same galaxy were often significantly different and not consistent with each other in terms of fitted components. Using 3.6 μm Spitzer imagery, which is a superb tracer of the stellar mass (superior to the K band), we have performed state-of-the-art multicomponent decompositions for 66 galaxies with directly measured black hole masses. Our sample is the largest to date and, unlike previous studies, contains a large number (17) of spiral galaxies with low black hole masses. We paid careful attention to the image mosaicking, sky subtraction, and masking of contaminating sources. After a scrupulous inspection of the galaxy photometry (through isophotal analysis and unsharp masking) and—for the first time—2D kinematics, we were able to account for spheroids; large-scale, intermediate-scale, and nuclear disks; bars; rings; spiral arms; halos; extended or unresolved nuclear sources; and partially depleted cores. For each individual galaxy, we compared our best-fit model with previous studies, explained the discrepancies, and identified the optimal decomposition. Moreover, we have independently performed one-dimensional (1D) and two-dimensional (2D) decompositions and concluded that, at least when modeling large, nearby galaxies, 1D techniques have more advantages than 2D techniques. Finally, we developed a prescription to estimate the uncertainties on the 1D best-fit parameters for the 66 spheroids that takes into account systematic errors, unlike popular 2D codes that only consider statistical errors.

79 ASTRONOMY AND ASTROPHYSICS↗

Implementation of Stochastic Gradient Descent in an Automated Glow Peak Identification Software for Multiple Thermoluminescent Dosimeter Types

A glow-curve analysis code was previously developed in C++ to analyze thermoluminescent dosimeter glow curves using automated peak detection while applying a first-order kinetics model. A newer version of this code was implemented to improve the automated peak detection and curve fitting models. The Stochastic Gradient Descent Algorithm was introduced to replace the prior approach of taking first and second-order derivatives for peak detection. Additionally, early stopping mechanisms were invoked to improve the previously used Levenberg-Marquardt Algorithm employed for curve fitting. The two software versions were compared through glow curve analysis of different thermoluminescent dosimeter materials and calculation of the corresponding figures of merit. Altogether improvements were shown, namely an increase in the number of peaks detected and a reduction of the mean figure of merit by approximately 46%.

137Cs↗

Reanalysis of X-ray emission from M87. 2: The multiphase medium

In a previous paper, we showed that a single-phase model for the gas around M87 simultaneously explained most available X-ray data. Total enclosed masses derived from the model, however, fell well below the determinations from optical measurements. In this paper, we consider possible solutions to the inconsistency, including two multiphase medium models for the gas and the consequences of systematic errors of the Einstein Focal Point Crystal Spectrometer (FPCS). First, we find that when constraints from optical mass determinations are not considered, the best-fit model to the X-ray data is always the single-phase model. Multiphase models or consideration of FPCS systematic errors are required only when optical mass constraints are included. We find that the cooling time model of White & Sarazin adequately explains the available X-ray data and predicts total masses which agree with optical measurements. An ad hoc power-law multiphase does not. This shows both that the existence of mass dropping out of the ambient phase is consistent with the data and that the cooling-time model gives a reasonable parameterization of the dropout rate. Our derived mass accretion rate is similar to previous determinations. The implications of this result for cluster mass determinations in general are discussed. We then consider 'self absorbing' models where we assume that material dropping out of the ambient medium goes completely into X-ray absorbing gas. The resulting internal absorption is small compared to Galactic absorption at most radii. The models are therefore indistinguishable from models with only Galactic absorption. We finally show that it is alternatively possible to simultaneously fit optical mass measurements and X-ray data with a single-phase model if some of the observed FPCS line fluxes are too high by the maximum systematic error. This possiblity can be checked with new data from satellites such as ASCA.

Tsai, John C.↗