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At least 343 records · Page 19

Interactive Framework to Support Open Model-Data Validation Efforts at the CCMC

Validation of models using observation data has been a central activity at the Community Coordinated Modeling Center (CCMC) over more than a decade. The Comprehensive Assessment of Models and Events using Library Tools (CAMEL) framework is a database-driven implementation of the interactive analysis of model-data comparisons that simultaneously provides a view across a multitude of locations and time periods. CAMEL thus extends the single-location or single-trajectory timeseries data comparison capabilities provided by the CCMC online visualization that formed the backbone of initial validation efforts. We demonstrate CAMEL capabilities for an example application to study Neutral Density in the upper atmosphere among comparisons in the heliosphere, the Earth’s radiation belt, magnetosphere, and ionosphere-thermosphere-mesosphere domains.

Lutz Rastaetter↗

Riverine Plastic Pollution: Sampling and Analysis Methods

Riverine plastic pollution has been found in all major U.S. rivers, but the exact amount of plastic being released to the oceans has not been quantified. Field studies conducted in U.S. rivers have used a range of sampling and analysis techniques and rarely measured the mass of the plastic collected. Measurements of riverine plastic pollution are needed to calibrate and validate models used to estimate the U.S. riverine plastic emissions to the oceans. This report surveys measurement methods used to quantify riverine pollution and current estimates of U.S. riverine plastic pollution from measurements and models. Measurement methods include field sampling and laboratory analysis. Field sampling methods are described for large (macro) and small (micro) plastic particles. Laboratory analysis methods are described for macro and microplastic with an emphasis on the detailed characterization processes of microplastics. Waterborne leachate analysis is also briefly described. Three models are described that estimate plastic pollution based on mismanaged plastic waste in the river catchment basins. The models were validated and calibrated with global data sources. The data sources were predominantly outside of the U.S., where the magnitude and composition of plastic pollution is different than what is found in U.S. rivers. Comprehensive measurements of riverine plastics are needed not only to characterize the riverine plastic pollution, but also parameterize and validate models of plastic fate and transport. This report also describes five key U.S. rivers that span a range of sizes and environmental conditions that could be sampled to obtain data to support characterization and model development of plastic pollution from rivers to oceans. Sampling and analysis protocol recommendations are made to ensure the highest quality of data are collected in the five rivers.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

Offline Power Systems Applications Enabled by Phasor Measurement Units: Technical Assistance to the Power Sectors of Southeast Asia

This report provides a brief overview of several offline (non-real-time) applications facilitated by high-resolution time-synchronized measurements recorded by phasor measurement units (PMUs). The high reporting rate and time-synchronization of PMU records provide a detailed view of power system dynamics, enabling electric utilities to obtain a better understanding of their systems. In this report, the following applications have been reviewed: Power plant model validation, System model validation, Ringdown oscillation analysis, Frequency response analysis, Postmortem analysis of disturbance events Along with a brief technical background of the applications above, applicable North American Electric Reliability Corporation (NERC) standards have been discussed, and examples of implementation in North American organizations have been provided. Implementing several of the discussed applications may need a preliminary stage of data gathering from multiple entities, and several frameworks and process flows have been formulated by organizations around the world for this purpose. However, the data-gathering stage has not been considered in the scope of the present report.

29 ENERGY PLANNING, POLICY, AND ECONOMY↗

Integrated behavior-based infrastructure command validation

A cybersecurity infrastructure command validation system is provided herein for validating asset commands issued within an infrastructure network. The cybersecurity infrastructure command validation system can be integrated into an infrastructure network to monitor and validate infrastructure asset commands in real-time or while the infrastructure network is active. The cybersecurity infrastructure command validation system can receive or intercept commands issued by asset controllers. The cybersecurity infrastructure command validation system can validate the commands based on a command validation model. The command validation model can represent normal operating behavior of the infrastructure network. The cybersecurity infrastructure command validation system can provide valid commands to the intended infrastructure asset, or can reject invalid commands. The cybersecurity infrastructure command validation system can store validation results for use in updating the command validation model. The cybersecurity infrastructure command validation system can flag or otherwise warn the infrastructure network or administrators of invalid commands.

Akyol, Bora A.↗

ROMAN CGI Testbed WFSC Modeling and Validation

Optical diffraction and wavefront sensing and control (WFSC) models validated against the high-fidelity Roman Space Telescope Coronagraph Instrument (CGI) testbed play a key role in mask design selection and the verification of many requirements that cannot be accomplished until the observatory is in orbit. We have been steadily improving our model fidelity for the as-built CGI testbed system, demonstrating recently good agreement between measurements and model predictions while validating the Hybrid Lyot Coronagraph’s (HLC) performance using the in-orbit high order wavefront sensing and control (HOWFSC) operational scenario. We present modeling and testbed validation results that explain the reason many testbed WFSC iterations were needed for HLC in the past. A new, direct application of model-generated deformable mirror (DM) solutions has since been successfully demonstrated on the testbed with significant speed and performance improvement. The benefit of using such a solution opens up new model-based WFSC approaches for CGI. This can greatly reduce flight risk from potentially insufficient ground solution generation due to schedule or cost constraints or from unexpected post-delivery changes.

Poberezhskiy, Ilya↗

Verification and Validation of Flow Confinement Modeling using OpenFAST Source Panel Method

Blockage or flow confinement effects in scale wind and water turbine testing in experimental facilities, including wind and water tunnels and tow tanks, can significantly alter incident aerodynamic and hydrodynamic loads, turbine performance (thrust, torque, power output), and wake dynamics compared to unconfined conditions. As scale model tests are key sources of OpenFAST model validation measurements, directly modeling flow confinement and its effects in OpenFAST enables improved model validat

Kim, Dongyoung [Sandia National Laboratories (SNL-↗

Validating an Air Traffic Management Concept of Operation Using Statistical Modeling

Validating a concept of operation for a complex, safety-critical system (like the National Airspace System) is challenging because of the high dimensionality of the controllable parameters and the infinite number of states of the system. In this paper, we use statistical modeling techniques to explore the behavior of a conflict detection and resolution algorithm designed for the terminal airspace. These techniques predict the robustness of the system simulation to both nominal and off-nominal behaviors within the overall airspace. They also can be used to evaluate the output of the simulation against recorded airspace data. Additionally, the techniques carry with them a mathematical value of the worth of each prediction-a statistical uncertainty for any robustness estimate. Uncertainty Quantification (UQ) is the process of quantitative characterization and ultimately a reduction of uncertainties in complex systems. UQ is important for understanding the influence of uncertainties on the behavior of a system and therefore is valuable for design, analysis, and verification and validation. In this paper, we apply advanced statistical modeling methodologies and techniques on an advanced air traffic management system, namely the Terminal Tactical Separation Assured Flight Environment (T-TSAFE). We show initial results for a parameter analysis and safety boundary (envelope) detection in the high-dimensional parameter space. For our boundary analysis, we developed a new sequential approach based upon the design of computer experiments, allowing us to incorporate knowledge from domain experts into our modeling and to determine the most likely boundary shapes and its parameters. We carried out the analysis on system parameters and describe an initial approach that will allow us to include time-series inputs, such as the radar track data, into the analysis

Statistical emulation↗

Control Oriented Modeling and Validation of Aeroservoelastic Systems

Lightweight aircraft design emphasizes the reduction of structural weight to maximize aircraft efficiency and agility at the cost of increasing the likelihood of structural dynamic instabilities. To ensure flight safety, extensive flight testing and active structural servo control strategies are required to explore and expand the boundary of the flight envelope. Aeroservoelastic (ASE) models can provide online flight monitoring of dynamic instabilities to reduce flight time testing and increase flight safety. The success of ASE models is determined by the ability to take into account varying flight conditions and the possibility to perform flight monitoring under the presence of active structural servo control strategies. In this continued study, these aspects are addressed by developing specific methodologies and algorithms for control relevant robust identification and model validation of aeroservoelastic structures. The closed-loop model robust identification and model validation are based on a fractional model approach where the model uncertainties are characterized in a closed-loop relevant way.

Crowder, Marianne↗

Validated CFD Model for Multimode Gasoline Compression Ignition Engine

A validated CFD model for the multimode combustion engine developed under the DOE funded project DE-EE0008478 (Co-optimized Mixed-Mode Engine and Fuel Demonstrator for Improved Fuel Economy while Meeting Emissions Requirements). It incorporates advanced physics-based fuel surrogate models for thermophysical properties and reaction kinetics. The combustion modes include spark ignition (SI), low temperature combustion (LTC), and compression ignition (CI). The real fuel model was validated for RON60, RON70, RON80, RON90, and two biofuel blends. The validation cases can be found in https://doi.org/10.2172/1887341.

02 PETROLEUM↗

Capability in Theory, Modeling, and Validation for a Range of Innovative Fusion Concepts using High-Fidelity Moment-Kinetic Models

A computational modeling capability is created and available to the fusion community to understand and design lower-cost and innovative fusion concepts. The approach uses high- fidelity kinetic, moment-kinetic, and moment models and includes sophisticated plasma- boundary interactions. A majority of fusion-relevant simulations are performed with magnetohydrodynamic models and hybrid particle-in-cell codes, with limited-fidelity electron and kinetic physics. However, in fusion configurations like Z-pinches, field-reversed- configurations, plasma jet magneto-inertial fusion, spinning mirrors, and others, kinetic effects (both electron and ions) are critical to understand the physics and design scaling into the highly kinetic regime of a burning fusion plasma. Furthermore, as present fusion machines move towards a burning plasma regime, liquid-metal blankets are needed to handle first-wall heat- flux, reduce erosion, and eventually for energy conversion and fuel breeding. The work performed under this ARPA-E BETHE Capability Team advances the state-of-the-art in modeling and understanding plasma dynamics in fusion devices and its coupling with liquid-metal dynamics. These are critical areas of research for fusion energy to become realizable. To address these complex problems, we have leveraged and extended computational capabilities through the code, Gkeyll (developed jointly with Princeton Plasma Physics Laboratory and academic partners), for kinetic and moment modeling of fusion plasmas. The Concept Teams supported by this Capability Team include the Wisconsin High-field Axisymmetric Mirror (WHAM), Centrifugal Mirror Experiment (CFME), Plasma-Jet Magneto- Inertial Fusion (PJMIF), and solid and liquid wall plasma-material interaction studies relevant to a number of fusion concepts including Zap Energy’s Z-pinch. This software is open-source and available to the fusion community as a high-fidelity tool for the design of lower-cost fusion experiments. 3D gyrokinetic simulations of WHAM are now possible for long enough time scales to understand the evolution of interchange instabilities. 3D multi-fluid simulations of CMFE at higher Mach numbers are now possible for detailed design iterations with the goal of stability. The state-of-the-art in understanding shock formation and shock mitigation regimes in merging liners for PJMIF have been furthered by our kinetic simulations. Our novel models and frameworks studying plasma-material interaction by incorporating wall emission for various solid wall materials of relevance to pulsed and steady fusion concepts have advanced the state-of-the-art in our understanding of particle fluxes, heat fluxes, and other quantities at cathodes and anodes. The results from this work may explain discrepancies between experimental and theoretical predictions of achieved current densities in pulsed concepts such as Z-pinches. Another significant contribution of this Capability Team is the development and deployment of a novel experimental platform, LEX (Liquid Electrode eXperiment), at Virginia Tech to understand liquid metal free-surface response to electromagnetic pulses. The novel experiments along with model validation quantified the effect of different materials and sizes of liquid metal droplets on the radiative power balance of fusion plasmas for pulsed concepts. Furthermore, these experiments provided mitigation strategies for violent liquid metal response for high current pulses as would be expected in fusion regimes.

70 PLASMA PHYSICS AND FUSION TECHNOLOGY↗

The Atacama Cosmology Telescope: DR6 power spectrum foreground model and validation

We discuss the model of astrophysical emission at millimeter wavelengths used to characterize foregrounds in the multi-frequency power spectra of the Atacama Cosmology Telescope (ACT) Data Release 6 (DR6), expanding on Louis et al. (2025) (2503.14452). We detail several tests to validate the capability of the DR6 parametric foreground model to describe current observations and complex simulations, and show that cosmological parameter constraints are robust against model extensions and variations. We demonstrate consistency of the model with pre-DR6 ACT data and observations from Planck and the South Pole Telescope. We evaluate the implications of using different foreground templates and extending the model with new components and/or free parameters. In all scenarios, the DR6 ΛCDM and ΛCDM+N eff cosmological parameters shift by less than 0.5σ relative to the baseline constraints. Some foreground parameters shift more; we estimate their systematic uncertainties associated with modeling choices. From our constraint on the kinematic Sunyaev-Zel'dovich power, we obtain a conservative limit on the duration of reionization of Δz rei < 4.4, assuming a reionization midpoint consistent with optical depth measurements and a minimal low-redshift contribution, with varying assumptions for this component leading to tighter limits. Finally, we analyze realistic non-Gaussian, correlated microwave sky simulations containing Galactic and extragalactic foreground fields, built independently of the DR6 parametric foreground model. Processing these simulations through the DR6 power spectrum and likelihood pipeline, we recover the input cosmological parameters of the underlying cosmic microwave background field, a new demonstration for small-scale CMB analysis. These tests validate the robustness of the ACT DR6 foreground model and cosmological parameter constraints.

CMBR experiments↗

Building Model Calibration: Validation of GridLAB-D Thermal Dynamics Modeling

This report investigates how well GridLAB-D’s house model characterizes the thermal dynamics of buildings given the overpredicted diurnal electric load swing observed in the Distribution System Operation with Transactive (DSO+T) study. This study seeks to validate GridLAB-D’s house model by calibrating it to data from the well-instrumented Pacific Northwest National Laboratory Lab Homes in Richland, WA. The datasets chosen included multiple pre-cooling and pre-heating testing periods where the indoor air temperature was allowed to float over a multi-hour length of time to mimic diurnal behavior. The multi-season calibrations were evaluated by comparing the heating/cooling electric power, indoor air temperature, and the rise/decay time during temperature float periods with Lab Homes data. The default GridLAB-D assumptions for latent load fraction, air heat capacity, mass heat capacity, window-to-wall-ratio, overall envelope conductance (assumed as NORMAL thermal integrity level), and solar heat gain coefficient were compared with the calibrated model to confirm when the default assumptions were adequate and the impact of calibration on the accuracy of modeling the thermal dynamics of homes.

32 ENERGY CONSERVATION, CONSUMPTION, AND UTILIZATI↗

Control Activity in Support of NASA Turbine Based Combined Cycle (TBCC) Research

Control research for a Turbine Based Combined Cycle (TBCC) propulsion system is the current focus of the Hypersonic Guidance, Navigation, and Control (GN&C) discipline team. The ongoing work at the NASA Glenn Research Center (GRC) supports the Hypersonic GN&C effort in developing tools to aid the design of control algorithms to manage a TBCC airbreathing propulsion system during a critical operating period. The critical operating period being addressed in this paper is the span when the propulsion system transitions from one cycle to another, referred to as mode transition. One such tool, that is a basic need for control system design activities, is computational models (hereto forth referred to as models) of the propulsion system. The models of interest for designing and testing controllers are Control Development Models (CDMs) and Control Validation Models (CVMs). CDMs and CVMs are needed for each of the following propulsion system elements: inlet, turbine engine, ram/scram dual-mode combustor, and nozzle. This paper presents an overall architecture for a TBCC propulsion system model that includes all of the propulsion system elements. Efforts are under way, focusing on one of the propulsion system elements, to develop CDMs and CVMs for a TBCC propulsion system inlet. The TBCC inlet aerodynamic design being modeled is that of the Combined-Cycle Engine (CCE) Testbed. The CCE Testbed is a large-scale model of an aerodynamic design that was verified in a small-scale screening experiment. The modeling approach includes employing existing state-of-the-art simulation codes, developing new dynamic simulations, and performing system identification experiments on the hardware in the NASA GRC 10 by10-Foot Supersonic Wind Tunnel. The developed CDMs and CVMs will be available for control studies prior to hardware buildup. The system identification experiments on the CCE Testbed will characterize the necessary dynamics to be represented in CDMs for control design. These system identification models will also be the reference models to validate the CDM and CVM models. Validated models will give value to the tools used to develop the models.

Stueber, Thomas J.↗

Validating corrosion models: Influence of physical properties

In chloride containing environments, two metals in physical contact can undergo galvanic corrosion limiting the lifetime of components. Being able to accurately predict galvanic corrosion damage distributions over time has not been widely presented in literature. Therefore, Finite Element Method (FEM) corrosion models were experimentally validated for two galvanic couples as a function of governing equations, environment, anode material, anode:cathode ratio, and time. Carbon steel/stainless steel (CS/SS) and zinc/stainless steel (Zn/SS) galvanic couples were exposed to NaCl solutions at room temperatures for up to 14 days. For the galvanic couples and environments, the Laplace equation with variable conductivity and reactions was sufficient to model the experimental corrosion damage. Increasing the chloride concentration for the CS/SS galvanic couple, regardless of the anode:cathode ratio, decreased the observed and modeled corrosion damage. Decreasing the anode:cathode ratio (i.e., increasing the cathode length), increased the experimentally observed and modeled corrosion damage. For small anode:cathode ratios, the governing equations deviate over long time periods with the Nernst-Plank equation being conservative. For the Zn/SS galvanic couple, the cathode length controls the dominant cathodic reduction reaction. For small cathode lengths, the hydrogen evolution reaction is dominant. For larger cathode lengths, the oxygen reduction reaction is dominant. The results are discussed with regard to the influence of solution chemistry, ohmic drop, and governing reactions. Overall, validated FEM models were presented, and the resultant models, physics, and mechanisms can be applied to other corrosion scenarios with confidence.

Carbon steel↗

Validation Tests of Resuspension Models for a Finite and Infinite Site

Dose assessment for deposited radionuclides often requires estimates of air concentrations that are derived from measured soil concentrations. For this, dose assessors typically use literature resuspension values that while empirically based, can vary by orders of magnitude making it difficult to provide accurate dose estimates. Despite the complexities of the physical processes involved in resuspension, the models generally used for dose assessment are relatively simplistic and rarely are the models validated for a specific site, thus making prediction of air concentrations or airborne emissions highly uncertain. Additionally, the size of the contaminated area can have an impact on downwind concentrations, yet literature values do not account for smaller-sized contaminated sites adding additional uncertainty. To test resuspension models for soil-bound radionuclides at finite and infinite spatial scales, measurements of soil and air concentrations are made at 1) a location downwind of a former outfall where plutonium-239 was released into the environment ( a finite site), and 2) uncontaminated locations where regional air sampling provides background measurements of naturally occurring uranium-238 in sampled dust (an infinite site). Measured air concentrations were compared to those predicted using the Resuspension Factor Model and the Mass Loading Model. An Area Factor was applied to the smaller contaminated site to account for dilution of dust from the contaminated site with dust originating from offsite locations. Here, results show that when properly parameterized to site conditions, resuspension models can predict air concentrations to within a factor of ten.

73 NUCLEAR PHYSICS AND RADIATION PHYSICS↗

Using Model Checking to Validate AI Planner Domain Models

This report describes an investigation into using model checking to assist validation of domain models for the HSTS planner. The planner models are specified using a qualitative temporal interval logic with quantitative duration constraints. We conducted several experiments to translate the domain modeling language into the SMV, Spin and Murphi model checkers. This allowed a direct comparison of how the different systems would support specific types of validation tasks. The preliminary results indicate that model checking is useful for finding faults in models that may not be easily identified by generating test plans.

Penix, John↗

Multiscale Modeling of CO 2 Migration and Trapping in Fractured Reservoirs with Validation by Model Comparison and Real-Site Applications (Final Technical Report)

This report documents the accomplishments achieved during the project titled “Multiscale Modeling of CO 2 Migration and Trapping in Fractured Reservoirs with Validation by Model Comparison and Real-Site Applications” funded by the US Department of Energy, Office of Fossil Energy. The objectives of the project were to develop modeling capabilities for predicting CO 2 and brine migration in fractured reservoirs during geologic carbon storage and to investigate the feasibility of carbon storage in fractured reservoirs using the newly developed modeling capabilities. To achieve these objectives new mass transfer functions were developed to adapt existing dual-continuum approaches – a commonly used approach in hydrocarbon reservoir modeling – to the CO 2 -brine system. In the dual-continuum approach the undisturbed rock matrix and the fractures are modeled as two separate continua, which are coupled through mass exchange of CO 2 and brine between the two continua. Mass transfer functions represent the mass exchange between fractures and the rock matrix, without requiring highly resolved numerical grids of individual fractures, thus allowing large modeling domains relevant to geologic carbon storage questions (tens of meters to hundreds of kilometers). Mass transfer functions for the exchange of both free-phase CO 2 and brine between fractures and rock matrix were developed for both the injection phase and the post-injection phase. During the injection phase the fractures are filled with CO 2 , while the rock matrix is initially filled with brine. Therefore, a mass transfer function was developed that is based on vertical displacement of brine by CO 2 in the rock matrix due to gravitational forces. Once CO 2 injection ceases and CO 2 migrates away from the direct vicinity of the injection site, the fractures will begin to re-fill with brine, while the rock matrix will have high CO 2 saturations. For these conditions a mass transfer functions was developed that is based on spontaneous imbibition, as the pore spaces in the rock matrix are much smaller than in the fractures. For formations with low permeability or high capillary entry pressure of the rock matrix, free-phase CO 2 may not be able to enter the rock matrix. However, free-phase CO 2 at the interface between fractures and rock matrix can dissolve into brine resident in the rock matrix. Therefore, additional mass transfer functions were developed based on aqueous-phase diffusion of CO 2 through the rock matrix. These mass transfer functions are based on existing solutions for diffusion and were expanded to be applicable to a variety of block shapes relevant to dual-continuum modeling. Implementations of the newly developed mass transfer functions showed that they give accurate results when compared to highly resolved models. In addition to developing new transfer functions, a new vertically-integrated dual-continuum modeling framework was developed. This development takes advantage of fast vertical segregation of CO 2 and brine in the fractures due to the density difference between CO 2 and brine and the high permeability of the fractures. Therefore, a vertically-integrated vertical equilibrium model for the fractures is coupled with a vertically-distributed model for the rock matrix. The newly developed approach significantly reduces the computational effort, but is only accurate for fracture permeabilities of 100 mD or higher. Finally, the newly developed models were applied to real and hypothetical geologic carbon storage sites to investigate the feasibility of using fractured reservoirs for carbon storage. The general results were, that storage of CO 2 – both as free-phase and dissolved – is feasible, but that storage capacities are likely lower than in unfractured systems. While the high permeability of the fractures reduces the injection pressure (or permits higher injection rates), fast migration of CO 2 may limit the overall storage volume, because CO 2 may escape laterally with not enough of the rock matrix being swept for effective storage.

20 FOSSIL-FUELED POWER PLANTS↗

Barotropic Tidal Predictions and Validation in a Relocatable Modeling Environment

Under funding from the Office of Naval Research (ONR), and the Naval Oceanographic Office (NAVOCEANO), the Mississippi State University Center for Air Sea Technology (CAST) has been working on developing a Relocatable Modeling Environment(RME) to provide a uniform and unbiased infrastructure for efficiently configuring numerical models in any geographic/oceanic region. Under Naval Oceanographic Office (NAVO-CEANO) funding, the model was implemented and tested for NAVOCEANO use. With our current emphasis on ocean tidal modeling, CAST has adopted the Colorado University's numerical ocean model, known as CURReNTSS (Colorado University Rapidly Relocatable Nestable Storm Surge) Model, as the model of choice. During the RME development process, CURReNTSS has been relocated to several coastal oceanic regions, providing excellent results that demonstrate its veracity. This report documents the model validation results and provides a brief description of the Graphic user Interface (GUI).

Mehra, Avichal↗