Integrated Energy Systems Modeling and Simulation
This presentation covers IES modeling and simulation tools, with a specific focus on how physical modeling is linked to technoeconomic analysis.
08 HYDROGEN↗
SEARCH · Search NASA
Results for “Modeling and Simulation”
Search indexed NASA NTRS and DOE OSTI research on propulsion, heat transfer, battery materials and energy systems. Follow report and document links to the original sources.
Quote a phrase for an exact phrase match. Source license links do not imply unrestricted reuse.
Emulating a System Dynamics Model with Agent-Based Models: A Methodological Case Study in Simulation of Diabetes Progression
An agent-based simulation model hierarchy emulating disease states and behaviors critical to progression of diabetes type 2 was designed and implemented in the DEVS framework. The models are translations of basic elements of an established system dynamics model of diabetes. In this model hierarchy, which mimics diabetes progression over an aggregated U.S. population, was dis-aggregated and reconstructed bottom-up at the individual (agent) level. Four levels of model complexity were defined in order to systematically evaluate which parameters are needed to mimic outputs of the system dynamics model. Moreover, the four estimated models attempted to replicate stock counts representing disease states in the system dynamics model, while estimating impacts of an elderliness factor, obesity factor and health-related behavioral parameters. Health-related behavior was modeled as a simple realization of the Theory of Planned Behavior, a joint function of individual attitude and diffusion of social norms that spread over each agent s social network. Although the most complex agent-based simulation model contained 31 adjustable parameters, all models were considerably less complex than the system dynamics model which required numerous time series inputs to make its predictions. In all three elaborations of the baseline model provided significantly improved fits to the output of the system dynamics model. The performances of the baseline agent-based model and its extensions illustrate a promising approach to translate complex system dynamics models into agent-based model alternatives that are both conceptually simpler and capable of capturing main effects of complex local agent-agent interactions.
59 BASIC BIOLOGICAL SCIENCES↗
Microbial Models for Simulating Soil Carbon Dynamics: A Review
Abstract Soils store the largest amount of carbon (C) in the biosphere, and the C pool in soil is critical to the global C balance. Numerous microbial models have been developed over the last few decades to represent microbial processes that regulate the responses of soil organic carbon (SOC) to climate change. However, the representation of microbial processes varies, and how microbial processes are incorporated into SOC models has not been well explored. Here, we reviewed 71 microbial models to characterize the microbial processes incorporated into SOC models and analyzed variations in mechanistic complexity. We revealed that (a) four processes (microbial‐mediated decomposition, mineral interaction, microbial necromass recycling, and active and dormant microbial dynamics) are commonly incorporated in microbial models, (b) ∼48% of models simulate only one microbial process (i.e., microbial‐mediated decomposition) and 35% of models simulate two microbial processes: for example, microbial‐mediated decomposition and mineral interaction, (c) more than 80% microbial models use nonlinear equations, such as forward Michaelis‐Menten kinetics, to represent SOC decomposition, (d) the concept of persistence of SOC due to its intrinsic properties has been replaced by organo‐mineral interaction (∼39% of microbial models) that protects SOC from decomposition, and (e) various temperature and moisture modifiers and pH effects have been used to explain the environmental effect on microbial processes. In the future, to realistically incorporate microbial processes into Earth System Models, it is imperative to identify experimental evidence on rate limitation processes and firmly ground model structure on the field and laboratory data.
Environmental Sciences & Ecology↗
Trusted Simulation: Considering Model Quality in the Context of User Trust
A high‐quality simulation model should help its users to easily and appropriately calibrate their trust in the model. Traditional evaluation metrics such as validation and robustness are necessary but insufficient for this task. Trust calibration depends on factors like the model's transparency, applicability to intended use, usability, reputation, and consideration of potential bias. This article proposes a framework for designing and evaluating system dynamics models by considering factors that contribute to the proper calibration of user trust. This framework takes inspiration from trusted artificial intelligence, broadening our traditional concept of model quality and explicitly focusing on what users need to consider a model trustworthy and to understand the model's relevance to its intended purpose. The trusted simulation framework can improve our integration of model quality activities throughout the modeling process, leading to more impactful and better‐targeted model design, development, and evaluation.
Naugle, Asmeret Bier [Sandia National Laboratories↗
An HPC-Based Hydrothermal Finite Element Simulator for Modeling Underground Geothermal Behavior with Example Simulations on The Treasure Island and UC Berkeley Campus
This submission contains the source code of the Hydrothermal Finite Element Simulator used for the Treasure Island and UC Berkeley campus geothermal simulation. It contains a report that summarizes the development and validation of this Hydrothermal Finite Element Simulator, with a case study on Treasure Island site. It also contains a report that investigates the feasibility of upgrading the existing campus energy delivery system at UC Berkeley to a fifth-generation district heating and cooling system that includes geothermal heat/cold storage.
15 GEOTHERMAL ENERGY↗
Electromagnetic Transient (EMT) Simulation Algorithms for Evaluation of Large-Scale Extreme Fast Charging Systems (T&D Models)
Simulation of high-fidelity models of extreme fast charging (XFC) systems and large-area power grids with many XFCs can be time consuming in traditional simulators. Traditional simulators use a single method of discretization for all the components that results in imposing a large computational burden of inverting a large matrix as well as increased computations related to single method of discretization (that is typically a trapezoidal method). To overcome the problem of simulating large-area power grids with many XFCs, in this paper, advanced numerical simulation algorithms are applied for the first time together to reduce the dimension of matrix inversion. Here, the algorithms include numerical stiffness-based segregation, time constant-based segregation, clustering and aggregation on differential algebraic equations (DAEs), and multi-order integration approaches. These algorithms apply multiple discretization algorithms rather than a single discretization algorithm that further reduces the computational burden. The approaches mentioned here have resulted in speed-up of up to 18x in the simulation of a single distribution system with 15 XFCs and of up to 271x in the simulation of a transmission-distribution system with 300 XFCs in multiple distribution feeders with respect to conventional simulators (like power systems computer aided design [PSCAD]).
42 ENGINEERING↗
A phase-field lattice Boltzmann model for simulating multiphase flows in porous media: Application and comparison to experiments of CO2 sequestration at pore scale
Not Available
Fakhari, Abbas (ORCID:000000033279715X)↗
Modeling and Simulation of TREAT with Thermal Graphite Model Validation
MOCkingbird LDRD final poster.
73 NUCLEAR PHYSICS AND RADIATION PHYSICS↗
Nuclear Energy Advanced Modeling and Simulation (NEAMS) Accident Tolerant Fuels High Impact Problem: U 3 Si 2 Modeling Capabilities
U 3 Si 2 fuel is a potential candidate replacement for UO 2 in light water reactor fuel rods due to its higher uranium density and thermal conductivity. Its lower melting temperature and significant gaseous swelling may be of concern. The aggressive development schedule of the United States Department of Energy’s (DOE) Advanced Fuels Campaign (AFC) to have potential accident tolerant fuels (ATF) concepts in lead test rods or assemblies by 2022 has necessitated the need for advanced modeling and simulation techniques to investigate the behavior of these materials under normal operating and accident conditions. This report presents the modeling capabilities for U 3 Si 2 fuel at the engineering (continuum) scale developed as part of the Nuclear Energy Advanced Modeling and Simulation (NEAMS) high impact problem (HIP). In this report, the models incorporated into the BISON fuel for U 3 Si 2 are described and comparisons to conventional UO 2 for separate effects cases are presented.
11 NUCLEAR FUEL CYCLE AND FUEL MATERIALS↗
HERA Modeling and Simulation Exercise: BISON Results
A Modeling and Simulation (M&S) exercise is being performed for the High burnup Experiments for Reactivity initiated Accident (HERA) project under the Nuclear Energy Agency (NEA) Framework for Irradiation Experiments (FIDES) program. The goal of the M&S exercise is to improve M&S and experiment integration, facilitate community involvement in experiment design and interpretation, facilitate community collaboration, and aid in ensuring program data meet fuel performance code needs. The M&S exercise will compile and compare results from over 20 international organizations using 14 different fuel performance codes. This paper presents the results from the BISON fuel performance code generated by the Idaho National Laboratory participants.
11 NUCLEAR FUEL CYCLE AND FUEL MATERIALS↗
Nalu-Wind and OpenFAST: A high-fidelity modeling and simulation environment for wind energy. Milestone ECP-Q2-FY19
The goal of the ExaWind project is to enable predictive simulations of wind farms comprised of many megawatt-scale turbines situated in complex terrain. Predictive simulations will require computational fluid dynamics (CFD) simulations for which the mesh resolves the geometry of the turbines and captures the rotation and large deflections of blades. Whereas such simulations for a single turbine are arguably petascale class, multi-turbine wind farm simulations will require exascale-class resources. The primary physics codes in the ExaWind project are Nalu-Wind, which is an unstructured-grid solver for the acoustically incompressible Navier-Stokes equations, and OpenFAST, which is a whole-turbine simulation code. The Nalu-Wind model consists of the mass-continuity Poisson-type equation for pressure and a momentum equation for the velocity. For such modeling approaches, simulation times are dominated by linear-system setup and solution for the continuity and momentum systems. For the ExaWind challenge problem, the moving meshes greatly affect overall solver costs as reinitialization of matrices and recomputation of preconditioners is required at every time step. This milestone represents the culmination of several parallel development activities towards the goal of establishing a full-physics simulation capability for modeling wind turbines operating in turbulent atmospheric inflow conditions. The demonstration simulation performed in this milestone is the first step towards the "ground truth" simulation and includes the following components: neutral atmospheric boundary layer inflow conditions generated using a precursor simulation, a hybrid RANS/LES simulation of the wall-resolved turbine geometry, hybridization of the turbulence equations using a blending function approach to transition from the atmospheric scales to the blade boundary layer scales near the turbine, fluid-structure interaction (FSI) that accounts for the complete set of blade deformations (bending, twisting and pitch motion, yaw and tower displacements) by coupling to a comprehensive turbine dynamics code (OpenFAST). The use of overset mesh methodology for the simulations in this milestone presents a significant deviation from the previous efforts where a sliding mesh approach was employed to model the rotation of the turbine blades. The choice of overset meshes was motivated by the need to handle arbitrarily large deformations of the blade and to allow for blade pitching in the presence of a controller and the ease of mesh generation compared to the sliding mesh approach. FSI and the new timestep algorithm used in the simulations were developed in partnership with the A2e High-Fidelity Modeling project. The individual physics components were verified and validated (V%V) through extensive code-to-code comparisons and with experiments where possible. The detailed V&V efforts provide confidence in the final simulation where these physics models were combined together even though no detailed experimental data is available to perform validation of the final configuration. Taken together, this milestone successfully demonstrated the most advanced simulation to date that has been performed with Nalu-Wind.
17 WIND ENERGY↗
Modeling and simulation functional needs for molten salt reactor licensing
The modeling and simulation functional needs to license and design molten salt reactor concepts were assessed and an evaluation methodology was developed using a licensing-focused approach considering the modeling and simulation components that contribute to a molten salt reactor safety analysis report. These functional needs were prioritized by identifying the relationships between functional needs and using a quantitative weighting method to identify the most critical components to build a licensing case. This novel weighting method provided a list of functional needs prioritized relative to key advanced reactor licensing outcomes. In addition, functional need inputs were ranked to reveal those that feed the most modeling and simulation components. The findings from this prioritization effort were used to inform the modeling and simulation goals of the US Department of Energy Office of Nuclear Energy (DOE-NE) Molten Salt Reactor campaign.Modeling and simulation needs were grouped into three main categories: (1) source term definition, material accountancy, and radiological consequences, (2) safety analysis, and (3) steady-state neutronics and thermal hydraulics. Here, five near-term goals were identified among these focus areas that add value: (1) deploying a systems and safeguards analysis computational tool, (2) defining source terms for molten salt reactor analysis and interfacing with the US Nuclear Regulatory Commission on accident progression analysis, (3) developing point designs for liquid-fueled thermal-spectrum and fast-spectrum molten salt reactors, (4) building safety analysis specifications and reference solutions for Molten Salt Reactor Experiment transients, and (5) interfacing with the thermophysical and thermodynamic salt chemistry databases.
22 GENERAL STUDIES OF NUCLEAR REACTORS↗
VALIDATION, VERIFICATION, AND CALIBRATION THROUGH A CAUSAL LENS
This paper presents an alternative method based on causal inference to perform validation, verification, and calibration of simulation models. While classical validation and verification approaches focus on the identification of the associations between data elements using statistical and machine learning methods, the novel methods in this paper focus instead on the identification of causal relationships between data elements. Statistical and machine learning-based approaches are strictly data-driven, meaning that they provide quantitative comparison measures between datasets without explicitly considering the hypotheses behind them. This can lead to the erroneous conclusion that, if two data sets are close enough, then the models that generated them are similar. In addition, when experimental and simulated data differ to an extent that fails to meet the acceptance criteria, calibration techniques are used to tweak simulation model parameters to reduce the gap between the two types of data. This produces the false expectation that a simulation model will match reality. The methods presented in this paper move away from these strictly data-driven methods for validation and calibration toward more robust, model-driven methods based on causal inference. Causal inference aims to identify the possible mechanisms that might have generated data. Thus, this analysis targets the prediction of the effects when one (or more) of the identified mechanisms are altered. There are many approaches to identify, quantify and illustrate causal relationships. For the scope of this paper, directed graphs are employed as causal models. If the directed graph lacks cycles it is known as a directed acyclic graph (DAG). A node in such a graph represents an observed data element while a directed edge connecting two nodes represents a causal relationship between two variables. The developed causal methods are designed to extract causal models from simulation models and from experimental data. Causal models capture the causal relationships between data elements (e.g., simulated and experimental data). In this context, validation and verification are performed by comparing causal models. The proposed approach does not only inform system analysts on how a simulation model matches real-world data, but also identifies elements of the simulation model that should be revised when discrepancies between simulation and experimental data are observed. Through these causal methods, analysts have a means to identify the portion of the model equation(s) that are behind an edge connecting two variables. Hence, once the structural differences between causal models have been determined, model calibration can occur by changing only those model parameters that impact the identified causal relationships.
97 MATHEMATICS AND COMPUTING↗
Emission or atmospheric processes? An attempt to attribute the source of large bias of aerosols in eastern China simulated by global climate models
Here, global climate models often underestimate aerosol loadings in China, and these biases can have significant implications for anthropogenic aerosol radiative forcing and climate effects. The biases may be caused by either the emission inventory or the treatment of aerosol processes in the models, or both, but so far no consensus has been reached. In this study, a relatively new emission inventory based on energy statistics and technology, Multi-resolution Emission Inventory for China (MEIC), is used to drive the Community Atmosphere Model version 5 (CAM5) to evaluate aerosol distribution and radiative effects against observations in China. The model results are compared with the model simulations with the widely used Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change Fifth Assessment Report (IPCC AR5) emission inventory. We find that the new MEIC emission improves the aerosol optical depth (AOD) simulations in eastern China and explains 22–28 % of the AOD low bias simulated with the AR5 emission. However, AOD is still biased low in eastern China. Seasonal variation of the MEIC emission leads to a better agreement with the observed seasonal variation of primary aerosols than the AR5 emission, but the concentrations are still underestimated. This implies that the atmospheric loadings of primary aerosols are closely related to the emission, which may still be underestimated over eastern China. In contrast, the seasonal variations of secondary aerosols depend more on aerosol processes (e.g., gas- and aqueous-phase production from precursor gases) that are associated with meteorological conditions and to a lesser extent on the emission. It indicates that the emissions of precursor gases for the secondary aerosols alone cannot explain the low bias in the model. Aerosol secondary production processes in CAM5 should also be revisited. The simulation using MEIC estimates the annual-average aerosol direct radiative effects (ADREs) at the top of the atmosphere (TOA), at the surface, and in the atmosphere to be –5.02, –18.47, and 13.45 W m –2 , respectively, over eastern China, which are enhanced by –0.91, –3.48, and 2.57 W m –2 compared with the AR5 emission. The differences of ADREs by using MEIC and AR5 emissions are larger than the decadal changes of the modeled ADREs, indicating the uncertainty of the emission inventories. This study highlights the importance of improving both the emission and aerosol secondary production processes in modeling the atmospheric aerosols and their radiative effects. Yet, if the estimations of MEIC emissions in trace gases do not suffer similar biases to those in the AOD, our findings will help affirm a fundamental error in the conversion from precursor gases to secondary aerosols as hinted in other recent studies following different approaches.
54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
Investigation of boundary-layer wind predictions during nocturnal low-level jet events using the Weather Research and Forecasting model
Simulations of two periods featuring three consecutive low level jet (LLJ) events in the US Upper Great Plains during the autumn of 2011 were conducted to explore the impacts of various setup configurations and physical process models on simulated flow parameters within the lowest 200 m above the surface, using the Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF) model. Sensitivities of simulated flow parameters to the horizontal and vertical grid spacing, planetary boundary layer (PBL) and land surface model (LSM) physics options, were assessed. Data from a Light Detection and Ranging (lidar) system, deployed to the Weather Forecast Improvement Project (WFIP; Finley et al. 2013) were used to evaluate the accuracy of simulated wind speed and direction at 80 m above the surface, as well as their vertical distributions between 120 and 40 m, covering the typical span of contemporary tall wind turbines. All of the simulations qualitatively captured the overall diurnal cycle of wind speed and stratification, producing LLJs during each overnight period, however large discrepancies occurred at certain times for each simulation in relation to the observations. 54-member ensembles encompassing changes of the above discussed configuration parameters displayed a wide range of simulated vertical distributions of wind speed and direction, and potential temperature, reflecting highly variable representations of stratification during the weakly stable overnight conditions. Root mean square error (RMSE) statistics show that different ensemble members performed better and worse in various simulated parameters at different times, with no clearly superior configuration . Simulations using a PBL parameterization designed specifically for the stable conditions investigated herein provided superior overall simulations of wind speed at 80 m, demonstrating the efficacy of targeting improvements of physical process models in areas of known deficiencies. However, the considerable magnitudes of the RMSE values of even the best performing simulations indicate ample opportunities for further improvements.
Mirocha, Jeff D.↗
Nuclear Energy Advanced Modeling and Simulation (NEAMS) Accident Tolerant Fuels High Impact Problem: Engineering Scale Models and Analysis
As part of the Department of Energy's Nuclear Energy Advanced Modeling and Simulation program, an Accident Tolerant Fuel High Impact Problem was initiated at the beginning of fiscal year 2015 to investigate the behavior of \usi\ fuel and iron-chromium-aluminum (FeCrAl) cladding under normal operating and accident reactor conditions. The High Impact Problem was created in response to the United States Department of Energy's renewed interest in accident tolerant materials after the events that occurred at the Fukushima Daiichi Nuclear Power Plant in 2011. The High Impact Problem is a multinational laboratory and university collaborative research effort between Idaho National Laboratory, Los Alamos National Laboratory, Argonne National Laboratory, and the University of Tennessee, Knoxville. This report summarizes the latest recommended material models to be used for engineering scale simulations based upon lower length scale analyses described elsewhere. Comparative analyses between traditional fuel rods (U 3 Si 2 /Zircaloy-4) and the proposed accident tolerant fuel rods (UO 2 /FeCrAl and U 3 Si 2 /Zircaloy-4) under normal operation, loss of coolant, and reactivity insertion conditions have been revisited using the latest state-of-the-art models implemented into the Bison fuel performance code. Sensitivity analyses have also been redone to take into account the latest knowledge on uncertain parameters.
11 NUCLEAR FUEL CYCLE AND FUEL MATERIALS↗
A Modal Model to Simulate Typical Structural Dynamic Nonlinearity [PowerPoint]
Some initial investigations have been published which simulate nonlinear response with almost traditional modal models: instead of connecting the modal mass to ground through the traditional spring and damper, a nonlinear Iwan element was added. This assumes that the mode shapes do not change with amplitude and there are no interactions between modal degrees of freedom. This work expands on these previous studies. An impact experiment is performed on a structure which exhibits typical structural dynamic nonlinear response, i.e. weak frequency dependence and strong damping dependence on the amplitude of vibration. Use of low level modal test results in combination with high level impacts are processed using various combinations of modal filtering, the Hilbert Transform and band-pass filtering to develop response data that are then fit with various nonlinear elements to create a nonlinear pseudo-modal model. Simulations of forced response are compared with high level experimental data for various nonlinear element assumptions.
42 ENGINEERING↗
A Modal Model to Simulate Typical Structural Dynamic Nonlinearity
Some initial investigations have been published which simulate nonlinear response with almost traditional modal models: instead of connecting the modal mass to ground through the traditional spring and damper, a nonlinear Iwan element was added. This assumes that the mode shapes do not change with amplitude and there are no interactions between modal degrees of freedom. This work expands on these previous studies. An impact experiment is performed on a structure which exhibits typical structural dynamic nonlinear response, i.e. weak frequency dependence and strong damping dependence on the amplitude of vibration. Use of low level modal test results in combination with high level impacts are processed using various combinations of modal filtering, the Hilbert Transform and band-pass filtering to develop response data that are then fit with various nonlinear elements to create a nonlinear pseudo-modal model. Simulations of forced response are compared with high level experimental data for various nonlinear element assumptions.
42 ENGINEERING↗