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Results for “Monte Carlo Analysis”

Search indexed NASA NTRS and DOE OSTI research on propulsion, heat transfer, battery materials and energy systems. Follow report and document links to the original sources.

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At least 343 records · Page 19
All sourcesNASA NTRSDOE OSTI
NASA NTRS1985

Fine guidance sensor design optimization for Space Infrared Telescope Facility (SIRTF)

The present paper is concerned with the general issues of design optimization of a staring mosaic sensor for guide-star tracking, taking into account the choice of the proper interpolation algorithm. It was found that the final choice of algorithm depends on the severity of the positional accuracy requirement and the expected variation in the blur spot shape. The considered track algorithms estimate the position either of the peak or of the centroid of the image of a point source. Attention is given to aspects of problem definition, the total effect of error sources on algorithm accuracy, a parametric analysis of performance behavior, Monte Carlo results, and the design of the SIRTF Fine Guidance Sensor (FGS). The algorithm error, the signal-to-noise error, and the nonuniformity error are examined.

Grossman, S. B.↗
NASA NTRS1986

Persistent time intervals between features in solar flare hard X-ray emission

Several solar hard X-ray events (greater than 100 keV) were observed simultaneously with identical instruments on the Venera 11, 12, 13, 14, and Prognoz spacecraft. High time resolution (= 2 ms) data were stored in memory when a trigger occurred. The observations of modulation are presented with a period of 1.6 s for the event on December 3, 1978. Evidence is also presented for fast time fluctuations from an event on November 6, 1979, observed from Venera 12 and another on September 6, 1981, observed from the Solar Maximum Mission. Power spectrum analysis, epoch folding, and Monte Carlo simulation were used to evaluate the statistical significance of persistent time delays between features. The results are discussed in light of the MHD model proposed by Zaitsev and Stepanov.

Desai, Upendra D.↗
NASA NTRS1987

Short solar events with evidence of repetitive structures

Several short (less than 40 s) solar hard X-ray events (greater than 100 keV) have been observed simultaneously with identical instruments on the Venera 11, 12, 13, and 14 and Prognoz 7 (Franco-Soviet Signe experiments) spacecraft. High time resolution (equal to or greater than 2 ms) data were stored in memory when a trigger occurred. The observations reported here were made by Prognoz 7 and V12 which were closer to the sun at the time and provided good statistics. Observations of modulation with a period of 1.6 s for the event on 1978 December 3 are presented. Also presented is evidence for fast time fluctuations from an event on 1979 November 6, observed with Venera 12, and another on 1981 September 6, observed with the Solar Maximum Hard X-Ray Burst Spectrometer. Power spectrum analysis, epoch folding, and Monte Carlo simulation to evaluate the statistical significance of persistent time delays between features. The results are discussed in light of the MHD model proposed by Zaitsev and Stepanov (1982) and Zaitsev, Stepanov, and Chernov (1984).

Desai, Upendra D.↗
NASA NTRS1990

Probabilistic vibration analysis of nearly periodic structures

A disordered structure with weakly coupled subsystems has localized modes with the vibratory energy concentrated in one part of the mode shape. The localization of modes may significantly affect the forced vibration response, increasing the maximum vibration amplitude dramatically in some cases. It is the scope of this paper to study the forced vibration of nearly periodic systems consisting of almost identical substructures and to analyze their free and forced dynamic responses probabilistically. It is shown that the sensitivity of the forced response to the degree of localization depends on a combination of the symmetry of the mode, which is excited, and the phase difference between the forces acting on each substructure. These results might explain the range of contrasting conclusions of earlier publications on the effects of forced response on mistuned structures. A probabilistic analysis of the free and forced responses of a nearly periodic structure is shown to be useful in the design of structures that are sensitive to the degree of localization. The results of the probabilistic analysis are verified using Monte Carlo simulation.

Hamade, Karen S.↗
NASA NTRS1991

Pressure measurements in a low-density nozzle plume for code verification

Measurements of Pitot pressure were made in the exit plane and plume of a low-density, nitrogen nozzle flow. Two numerical computer codes were used to analyze the flow, including one based on continuum theory using the explicit MacCormack method, and the other on kinetic theory using the method of direct-simulation Monte Carlo (DSMC). The continuum analysis was carried to the nozzle exit plane and the results were compared to the measurements. The DSMC analysis was extended into the plume of the nozzle flow and the results were compared with measurements at the exit plane and axial stations 12, 24 and 36 mm into the near-field plume. Two experimental apparatus were used that differed in design and gave slightly different profiles of pressure measurements. The DSMC method compared well with the measurements from each apparatus at all axial stations and provided a more accurate prediction of the flow than the continuum method, verifying the validity of DSMC for such calculations.

Penko, Paul F.↗
NASA NTRS1991

Pressure measurements in a low-density nozzle plume for code verification

Measurements of Pitot pressure were made in the exit plane and plume of a low-density, nitrogen nozzle flow. Two numerical computer codes were used to analyze the flow, including one based on continuum theory using the explicit MacCormack method, and the other on kinetic theory using the method of direct-simulation Monte Carlo (DSMC). The continuum analysis was carried to the nozzle exit plane and the results were compared to the measurements. The DSMC analysis was extended into the plume of the nozzle flow and the results were compared with measurements at the exit plane and axial stations 12, 24 and 36 mm into the near-field plume. Two experimental apparatus were used that differed in design and gave slightly different profiles of pressure measurements. The DSMC method compared well with the measurements from each apparatus at all axial stations and provided a more accurate prediction of the flow than the continuum method, verifying the validity of DSMC for such calculations.

Penko, Paul F.↗
NASA NTRS1991

Vectorization of a Monte Carlo simulation scheme for nonequilibrium gas dynamics

Significant improvement has been obtained in the numerical performance of a Monte Carlo scheme for the analysis of nonequilibrium gas dynamics through an implementation of the algorithm which takes advantage of vector hardware, as presently demonstrated through application to three different problems. These are (1) a 1D standing-shock wave; (2) the flow of an expanding gas through an axisymmetric nozzle; and (3) the hypersonic flow of Ar gas over a 3D wedge. Problem (3) is illustrative of the greatly increased number of molecules which the simulation may involve, thanks to improved algorithm performance.

Boyd, Iain D.↗
NASA NTRS1993

An in-depth probabilistic study of external tank attach ring

This report deals with conducting a probabilistic study of the external tank attach ring (ETA) used as an interface between the external tank attach struts and the solid rocket booster. The ideas were to use probabilistic distributions for material, geometric, and load properties; to calculate probabilistic margins of safety; and then to compare results against the deterministic factors of safety that were used in the actual design process. The report describes how this was done and discusses some of the road blocks and data problems that were encountered during the study and provides some conclusions. A further refinement of this study is being considered for future work which would make more direct use of finite element analysis data coupled with Monte Carlo simulation. The basic conclusion herein indicates that the probabilistic margins of safety for the cases analyzed (by use of existing data) appear to support deterministic results and actually indicate higher reliabilities.

Pizzano, Frank↗
NASA NTRS1993

Return flux contamination of an outgassing spacecraft in low earth orbit

The recontamination of a spacecraft surface directly exposed to the ram flux is investigated. It is assumed that the surface has been contaminated by a rocket plume contact and that, subsequent to the exposure, the contaminated surface is placed in the ram flux. A BGK-simulation was compared to both a Direct Simulation Monte Carlo (DSMC) and a Full Flow Monte Carlo (FFMC) using sensitivity analysis. Results indicate that the BGK-based simulation underpredicted the return flux contamination as compared to both the DSMC and FFMC techniques. Results from the full flow model suggest that the BGK model is inadequate to represent this physical problem.

Justiz, Charles R.↗
NASA NTRS1995

Probabilistic Failure Assessment For Fatigue

Probabilistic Failure Assessment for Fatigue (PFAFAT) package of software utilizing probabilistic failure-assessment (PFA) methodology to model high- and low-cycle-fatigue modes of failure of structural components. Consists of nine programs. Three programs perform probabilistic fatigue analysis by means of Monte Carlo simulation. Other six used for generating random processes, characterizing fatigue-life data pertaining to materials, and processing outputs of computational simulations. Written in FORTRAN 77.

Moore, Nicholas↗
NASA NTRS1995

Probabilistic Fatigue And Flaw-Propagation Analysis

Probabilistic Failure Assessment for Fatigue and Flaw Propagation (PFAFAT II) package of software utilizing probabilistic failure-assessment (PFA) methodology to model flaw-propagation and low-cycle-fatigue modes of failure of structural components. Comprises one program for performing probabilistic crack-growth analysis and two programs for performing probabilistic low-cycle-fatigue analysis. These programs perform probabilistic fatigue and crack-propagation analysis by means of Monte Carlo simulation. PFAFAT II is extension of, rather than replacement for, PFAFAT software (NPO-18965). Written in FORTRAN 77.

Moore, Nicholas↗
NASA NTRS1997

AXAF Detector Backgrounds Produced By Cosmic Ray Protons

One of the science instruments on the Advanced X-ray Astrophysics Facility (AXAF), planned for launch in 1998 into a highly elliptical (10,000 km x 140,000 km) orbit, is a microchannel plate High Resolution Camera (HRC). This detector is designed to provide imaging and spectroscopic observations of x-rays emitted by stellar sources in the 0.1 to 10 keV energy range. Described here are analyses made to determine the expected time-dependent detector background from prompt and delayed (activation) radiation initiated by galactic cosmic-ray (GCR) proton interactions in the spacecraft and payload. Numerical simulations were made using the coupled set of Monte Carlo radiation transport codes, analysis software, and data bases shown. The major codes are HETC for nucleon-meson transport, EGS for simulating electromagnetic cascades, and MORSE for low-energy (less than 15 MeV) neutron transport. The simulation follows the transport history of photons in the energy range from - 100 GeV down to approx. 0.1 keV due to gamma-ray sources from neutral pion decay, high-energy (spallation) collisions, and low-energy neutron inelastic scattering and capture reactions. Also included is radioisotope production and the tracking of gamma-rays, electrons, and positrons from induced radioactivity.

Armstrong, T. W.↗
NASA NTRS2003

Robotic Mars Sample Return: Risk Assessment and Analysis Report

A comparison of the risk associated with two alternative scenarios for a robotic Mars sample return mission was conducted. Two alternative mission scenarios were identified, the Jet Propulsion Lab (JPL) reference Mission and a mission proposed by Johnson Space Center (JSC). The JPL mission was characterized by two landers and an orbiter, and a Mars orbit rendezvous to retrieve the samples. The JSC mission (Direct/SEP) involves a solar electric propulsion (SEP) return to earth followed by a rendezvous with the space shuttle in earth orbit. A qualitative risk assessment to identify and characterize the risks, and a risk analysis to quantify the risks were conducted on these missions. Technical descriptions of the competing scenarios were developed in conjunction with NASA engineers and the sequence of events for each candidate mission was developed. Risk distributions associated with individual and combinations of events were consolidated using event tree analysis in conjunction with Monte Carlo techniques to develop probabilities of mission success for each of the various alternatives. The results were the probability of success of various end states for each candidate scenario. These end states ranged from complete success through various levels of partial success to complete failure. Overall probability of success for the Direct/SEP mission was determined to be 66% for the return of at least one sample and 58% for the JPL mission for the return of at least one sample cache. Values were also determined for intermediate events and end states as well as for the probability of violation of planetary protection. Overall mission planetary protection event probabilities of occurrence were determined to be 0.002% and 1.3% for the Direct/SEP and JPL Reference missions respectively.

Lalk, Thomas R.↗
NASA NTRS2006

Asymptotic Parachute Performance Sensitivity

In 2010, the Mars Science Laboratory mission will pioneer the next generation of robotic Entry, Descent, and Landing systems by delivering the largest and most capable rover to date to the surface of Mars. In addition to landing more mass than any other mission to Mars, Mars Science Laboratory will also provide scientists with unprecedented access to regions of Mars that have been previously unreachable. By providing an Entry, Descent, and Landing system capable of landing at altitudes as high as 2 km above the reference gravitational equipotential surface, or areoid, as defined by the Mars Orbiting Laser Altimeter program, Mars Science Laboratory will demonstrate sufficient performance to land on 83% of the planet s surface. By contrast, the highest altitude landing to date on Mars has been the Mars Exploration Rover at 1.3 km below the areoid. The coupling of this improved altitude performance with latitude limits as large as 60 degrees off of the equator and a precise delivery to within 10 km of a surface target, will allow the science community to select the Mars Science Laboratory landing site from thousands of scientifically interesting possibilities. In meeting these requirements, Mars Science Laboratory is extending the limits of the Entry, Descent, and Landing technologies qualified by the Mars Viking, Mars Pathfinder, and Mars Exploration Rover missions. Specifically, the drag deceleration provided by a Viking-heritage 16.15 m supersonic Disk-Gap-Band parachute in the thin atmosphere of Mars is insufficient, at the altitudes and ballistic coefficients under consideration by the Mars Science Laboratory project, to maintain necessary altitude performance and timeline margin. This paper defines and discusses the asymptotic parachute performance observed in Monte Carlo simulation and performance analysis and its effect on the Mars Science Laboratory Entry, Descent, and Landing architecture.

Way, David W.↗
NASA NTRS1996

Statistical Tolerance and Clearance Analysis for Assembly

Tolerance is inevitable because manufacturing exactly equal parts is known to be impossible. Furthermore, the specification of tolerances is an integral part of product design since tolerances directly affect the assemblability, functionality, manufacturability, and cost effectiveness of a product. In this paper, we present statistical tolerance and clearance analysis for the assembly. Our proposed work is expected to make the following contributions: (i) to help the designers to evaluate products for assemblability, (ii) to provide a new perspective to tolerance problems, and (iii) to provide a tolerance analysis tool which can be incorporated into a CAD or solid modeling system.

statistical tolerance clearance analysis Monte-Car↗
NASA NTRS2010

Visualization of Global Sensitivity Analysis Results Based on a Combination of Linearly Dependent and Independent Directions

A useful technique for the validation and verification of complex flight systems is Monte Carlo Filtering -- a global sensitivity analysis that tries to find the inputs and ranges that are most likely to lead to a subset of the outputs. A thorough exploration of the parameter space for complex integrated systems may require thousands of experiments and hundreds of controlled and measured variables. Tools for analyzing this space often have limitations caused by the numerical problems associated with high dimensionality and caused by the assumption of independence of all of the dimensions. To combat both of these limitations, we propose a technique that uses a combination of the original variables with the derived variables obtained during a principal component analysis.

Davies, Misty D.↗
NASA NTRS2016

Assessing and Ensuring GOES-R Magnetometer Accuracy

The GOES-R magnetometer subsystem accuracy requirement is 1.7 nanoteslas (nT). During quiet times (100 nT), accuracy is defined as absolute mean plus 3 sigma. During storms (300 nT), accuracy is defined as absolute mean plus 2 sigma. Error comes both from outside the magnetometers, e.g. spacecraft fields and misalignments, as well as inside, e.g. zero offset and scale factor errors. Because zero offset and scale factor drift over time, it will be necessary to perform annual calibration maneuvers. To predict performance before launch, we have used Monte Carlo simulations and covariance analysis. Both behave as expected, and their accuracy predictions agree within 30%. With the proposed calibration regimen, both suggest that the GOES-R magnetometer subsystem will meet its accuracy requirements.

Magnetometer↗
NASA NTRS2025

Assessment of Model Outcomes Between the Integrated Medical Model (IMM) and the Medical Extensible Dynamic Probabilistic Risk Assessment Tool (MEDPRAT)

The Medical Extensible Dynamic Probabilistic Risk Assessment Tool (MEDPRAT) is a computational model that provides human health and medical risk predictions for crewed spaceflight missions. MEDPRAT utilizes discrete event modeling and dynamic probabilistic simulation to predict critical mission outcomes (total medical events, crew health index, quality time lost, loss of crew life, removal to definitive care), condition occurrences, and resource consumption. Input parameters for MEDPRAT include crew attributes (e.g., sex), types of mission activities (e.g., whether and where crew members perform an extravehicular activity (EVA)), available resources, treatment information, and probability distributions for medical conditions. As an evolution of the Integrated Medical Model (IMM), MEDPRAT provides enhanced capabilities and higher fidelity, and incorporates more appropriate assumptions for long-duration spaceflight. IMM is the currently accepted standard for quantifying spaceflight mission medical risk in NASA operations that uses a probabilistic risk assessment (PRA) approach. MEDPRAT builds on the same logical foundation as IMM but implements the model architecture through highly optimized Monte Carlo sampling methods. An analysis is performed comparing the outputs from IMM with those from MEDPRAT V1.0 and V2.0 for the same reference missions in order to quantify similarities and differences in the model outcomes. The juxtaposition between IMM and MEDPRAT V1.0 and 2.0 shown in this report demonstrates that these two models generate very similar results; where differences in outcomes are shown, these are in accordance with the underlying assumptions and differences in the model architectures. This validation effort further establishes the credibility and reliability of the MEDPRAT software.

Matthew T Prelich↗