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At least 343 records · Page 19

Inverse Analysis with Variational Autoencoders: A Comparison of Shallow and Deep Networks

Inverse problems are applied to determine unknown properties by matching observational data with a physical model that often takes many parameters as input. To overcome the underconstrained nature of inverse problems and achieve good performance, an approach is presented involving regularization with a technique known as a variational autoencoder (VAE), which is trained to map a high-dimensional parameter space with a complex structure to a low-dimensional latent space with a simple structure. We apply this approach to unconditioned realizations of the parameters (heterogeneous hydraulic fields) for a hydrogeological inverse problem. Two types of hydraulic conductivity fields are used to evaluate the characterization for the different levels of heterogeneity complexity of the physical inputs. This approach keeps the computational cost of generating the training data low. The reason is unconditioned realizations neither rely on the observational data used to perform the inverse analysis nor require any groundwater flow model forward runs. In addition, this approach applies regularization on a low-dimensional latent space from the VAE and increases optimization efficiency through automatic differentiation. Furthermore, two different neural network (NN) structures are tested for their utility in using the VAE for inverse analysis. The performance of a deep, convolutional neural network strongly depends on the dimensionality of the latent space, which requires tuning. In contrast, a shallow, dense neural network provides consistently accurate characterization without tuning. Furthermore, our approach evaluates the advantages of the shallow, dense neural network over the deep, convolutional one and enables future application to a wide range of inverse problems.

97 MATHEMATICS AND COMPUTING↗

PROcess Based Diagnostics PROBE

Many of the aspects of the climate system that are of the greatest interest (e.g., the sensitivity of the system to external forcings) are emergent properties that arise via the complex interplay between disparate processes. This is also true for climate models most diagnostics are not a function of an isolated portion of source code, but rather are affected by multiple components and procedures. Thus any model-observation mismatch is hard to attribute to any specific piece of code or imperfection in a specific model assumption. An alternative approach is to identify diagnostics that are more closely tied to specific processes -- implying that if a mismatch is found, it should be much easier to identify and address specific algorithmic choices that will improve the simulation. However, this approach requires looking at model output and observational data in a more sophisticated way than the more traditional production of monthly or annual mean quantities. The data must instead be filtered in time and space for examples of the specific process being targeted.We are developing a data analysis environment called PROcess-Based Explorer (PROBE) that seeks to enable efficient and systematic computation of process-based diagnostics on very large sets of data. In this environment, investigators can define arbitrarily complex filters and then seamlessly perform computations in parallel on the filtered output from their model. The same analysis can be performed on additional related data sets (e.g., reanalyses) thereby enabling routine comparisons between model and observational data. PROBE also incorporates workflow technology to automatically update computed diagnostics for subsequent executions of a model. In this presentation, we will discuss the design and current status of PROBE as well as share results from some preliminary use cases.

PROBE↗

Investigation of Condensing Ice Heat Exchangers for MTSA Technology Development

Metabolic heat regenerated Temperature Swing Adsorption (MTSA) technology is being developed for thermal, carbon dioxide (CO2) and humidity control for a Portable Life Support Subsystem (PLSS). Metabolically-produced CO2 present in the ventilation gas of a PLSS is collected using a CO2selective adsorbent via temperature swing adsorption. The temperature swing is initiated through cooling to well below metabolic temperatures. Cooling is achieved with a sublimation heat exchanger using water or liquid carbon dioxide (LCO2) expanded below sublimation temperature when exposed to low pressure or vacuum. Subsequent super heated vapor, as well as additional coolant, is used to further cool the astronaut. The temperature swing on the adsorbent is then completed by warming the adsorbent with a separate condensing ice heat exchanger (CIHX) using metabolic heat from moist ventilation gas. The condensed humidity in the ventilation gas is recycled at the habitat. The water condensation from the ventilation gas is a significant heat transfer mechanism for the warming of the adsorbent bed because it represents as much as half of the energy potential in the moist ventilation gas. Designing a heat exchanger to efficiently transfer this energy to the adsorbent bed and allow the collection of the water is a challenge since the CIHX will operate in a temperature range from 210K to 280K. The ventilation gas moisture will first freeze and then thaw, sometimes existing in three phases simultaneously. A NASA Small Business Innovative Research (SBIR) Phase 1 contract was performed to investigate condensing and icing as applied to MTSA to enable higher fidelity modeling and assess the impact of geometry variables on CIHX performance for future CIHX design optimization. Specifically, a design tool was created using analytical relations to explore the complex, interdependent design space of a condensing ice heat exchanger. Numerous variables were identified as having nontrivial contributions to performance such as hydraulic diameter, heat exchanger effectiveness, ventilation gas mass flow rate and surface roughness. Using this tool, four test articles were designed and manufactured to map to a full MTSA subassembly (the adsorbent bed, the sublimation heat exchanger for cooling and the condensing ice heat exchanger for warming). The design mapping considered impacts due to CIHX geometry as well as subassembly impacts such as thermal mass and thermal resistance through the adsorbent bed. The test articles were tested at simulated PLSS ventilation loop temperature, moisture content and subambient pressure. Ice accumulation and melting were observed. Data and test observations were analyzed to identify drivers of the condensing ice heat exchanger performance. This paper will discuss the analytical models, the test article designs, and testing procedures. Testing issues will be discussed to better describe data and share lessons learned. Data analysis and subsequent conclusions will be presented.

Padilla, Sebastian↗

Implementation of a realistic artificial data generator for crash data generation

In this paper, a framework is outlined to generate realistic artificial data (RAD) as a tool for comparing different models developed for safety analysis. The primary focus of transportation safety analysis is on identifying and quantifying the influence of factors contributing to traffic crash occurrence and its consequences. The current framework of comparing model structures using only observed data has limitations. With observed data, it is not possible to know how well the models mimic the true relationship between the dependent and independent variables. Further, real datasets do not allow researchers to evaluate the model performance for different levels of complexity of the dataset. RAD offers an innovative framework to address these limitations. Hence, we propose a RAD generation framework embedded with heterogeneous causal structures that generates crash data by considering crash occurrence as a trip level event impacted by trip level factors, demographics, roadway and vehicle attributes. Within our RAD generator we employ three specific modules: (a) disaggregate trip information generation, (b) crash data generation and (c) crash data aggregation. For disaggregate trip information generation, we employ a daily activity-travel realization for an urban region generated from an established activity-based model for the Chicago region. We use this data of more than 2 million daily trips to generate a subset of trips with crash data. For trips with crashes crash location, crash type, driver/vehicle characteristics, and crash severity. The daily RAD generation process is repeated for generating crash records at yearly or multi-year resolution. In conclusion, the crash databases generated can be employed to compare frequency models, severity models, crash type and various other dimensions by facility type - possibly establishing a universal benchmarking system for alternative model frameworks in safety literature.

42 ENGINEERING↗

MSD CoP Webinar: AI and Extreme Events - Overcoming Data Challenges for Improved Characterization of Climate Extremes

Context: This webinar was hosted by the MultiSector Dynamics Community of Practice (MSD CoP; https://multisectordynamics.org). Abstract: Artificial Intelligence (AI) models require large volumes of data for training and testing. Data requirements present challenges for using AI to explore extreme events with limited observational data. This webinar will showcase two innovative methods developed by part of the European Climate Intelligence (CLINT) project to overcome data challenges and harness AI to improve our understanding of climate extremes. Dr. Ascenso will present his research on data augmentation methods to improve estimates of tropical cyclones using satellite data. His presentation will review established methods for data augmentation and explore opportunities and challenges for using generative AI to generate images of extreme, life-threatening tropical cyclones. Next, Dr. Plesiat will present his research on deep learning techniques to overcome limited observational data sets. His presentation will illustrate deep learning methods to develop AI reconstructions of four climate indices across Europe. Presenters : Dr. Guido Ascenso (post-doctoral researcher, Politecnico di Milano); Dr. Étienne Plésiat (German Climate Computing Centre - DKRZ) Moderator(s): Stefano Galelli (MSD CoP WG Co-Lead), David Gold (MSD CoP WG Co-Lead), Jillian Sturtevant (MSD CoP WG Communications Officer), Matteo Giuliani (Politecnico di Milano, MSD CoP WG Member, Moderator and Organizer) This webinar was held on: October 11, 2024 from 11AM - 1PM ET

AI↗

Hourly GPP Estimation In Australia Using Himawari-8 AHI Products

We extended the MODIS 17 algorithm to hourly Gross Primary Product (GPP) estimation for Australia in 2018. AHI 1-km data are available at NASA Earth Exchange (NEX) facility. The high-frequent observation of Advanced Himawari Imager (AHI) enabled us to calculate hourly GPP, which is corresponding to ground observation of carbon flux measured by TERN OzFlux. We interpolated the weather observation data to 1-km grid over Australia ingesting AHI reflectance and radiometric temperature data (NEX-Gridded Hourly Meteorology (NEX-GHM)). Then, we applied MODIS 17 algorithm to each grid with optimized climate regulation functions. The estimation of climate and GPP were well correlated with OzFlux ground observation data.

Himawari-8↗

Denoising solar radiation data using coiflet wavelets

Signal denoising and smoothing plays an important role in processing the given signal either from experiment or data collection through observations. Data collection usually was mixed between true data and some error or noise. This noise might be coming from the apparatus to measure or collect the data or human error in handling the data. Normally before the data is use for further processing purposes, the unwanted noise need to be filtered out. One of the efficient methods that can be used to filter the data is wavelet transform. Due to the fact that the received solar radiation data fluctuates according to time, there exist few unwanted oscillation namely noise and it must be filtered out before the data is used for developing mathematical model. In order to apply denoising using wavelet transform (WT), the thresholding values need to be calculated. In this paper the new thresholding approach is proposed. The coiflet2 wavelet with variation diminishing 4 is utilized for our purpose. From numerical results it can be seen clearly that, the new thresholding approach give better results as compare with existing approach namely global thresholding value.

14 SOLAR ENERGY↗

Tipping point analysis of atmospheric oxygen concentration

We apply tipping point analysis to nine observational oxygen concentration records around the globe, analyse their dynamics and perform projections under possible future scenarios, leading to oxygen deficiency in the atmosphere. The analysis is based on statistical physics framework with stochastic modelling, where we represent the observed data as a composition of deterministic and stochastic components estimated from the observed data using Bayesian and wavelet techniques.

71 CLASSICAL AND QUANTUM MECHANICS, GENERAL PHYSIC↗

Explaining TeV cosmic-ray anisotropies with non-diffusive cosmic-ray propagation

Constraining the behavior of cosmic ray data observed at Earth requires a precise understanding of how the cosmic rays propagate in the interstellar medium. The interstellar medium is not homogeneous; although turbulent magnetic fields dominate over large scales, small coherent regions of magnetic field exist on scales relevant to particle propagation in the nearby Galaxy. Guided propagation through a coherent field is significantly different from random particle diffusion and could be the explanation of spatial anisotropies in the observed cosmic rays. We present a Monte Carlo code to propagate cosmic particle through realistic magnetic field structures. We discuss the details of the model as well as some preliminary studies which indicate that coherent magnetic structures are important effects in local cosmic-ray propagation, increasing the flux of cosmic rays by over two orders of magnitude at anisotropic locations on the sky. Furthermore, the features induced by coherent magnetic structure could be the cause of the observed TeV cosmic-ray anisotropy.

79 ASTRONOMY AND ASTROPHYSICS↗

The effects of tracking station coordinate uncertainties on GEOS-2 orbital accuracy

Laser and minitrack observational data from GEOS-2 collected during the period April 23, 1971 to May 1971, have been used for the purpose of assessing the influence of tracking station location on the accuracy of orbit determination. These data were processed using a unified set of coordinates for the tracking station locations. Concurrently, these data were processed using nonunified station locations referred to a variety of geodetic datums. The resultant orbits based on the two different sets of station locations were compared and relative differences in the position of the satellite were determined. Differences between the two groups of orbits fitted over four-day data spans ranged from 250 meters to 500 meters for orbits derived from laser data only. For orbits observed from Minitrack data alone the relative differences in GEOS-2 spacecraft position ranged from 50 meters to 190 meters. Utilizing the laser data alone in each arc, definitive orbits were computed using the unified and nonunified station location coordinates. The differences in the satellite position in the overlap region when using the unified laser station coordinates ranged from 25 meters to 150 meters, whereas when using the nonunified laser station coordinates the differences in position ranges from 180 to 650 meters.

Glazer, J.↗

Ablation in meteors

A comparison of theoretical calculations with the results of radar meteor observations shows that the theory of radio meteors satisfactorily represents observational data. Radar meteor observations are incompatible with the idea of low density for small meteoroids in the ablation process. The main mechanism of ablation is evaporation. During intensive evaporation, small meteoroids have a density close to that of usual stone meteorites.

Lebedinets, V. N.↗

Static shape control for flexible structures

An integrated methodology is described for defining static shape control laws for large flexible structures. The techniques include modeling, identifying and estimating the control laws of distributed systems characterized in terms of infinite dimensional state and parameter spaces. The models are expressed as interconnected elliptic partial differential equations governing a range of static loads, with the capability of analyzing electromagnetic fields around antenna systems. A second-order analysis is carried out for statistical errors, and model parameters are determined by maximizing an appropriate defined likelihood functional which adjusts the model to observational data. The parameter estimates are derived from the conditional mean of the observational data, resulting in a least squares superposition of shape functions obtained from the structural model.

Rodriguez, G.↗

A flux-limited sample of Galactic carbon stars

Published observational data (including IRAS observations) for a flux-limited sample of 215 Galactic carbon stars (CSs) selected from the 2-micron sky survey of Neugebauer and Leighton (1969) are compiled in extensive tables and graphs and analyzed statistically. The sample is found to penetrate a volume of radius 1.5 kpc, and the local CS space density and surface density are calculated as log rho0 (per cu kpc) = 2.0 + or - 0.4 and log N (per sq kpc) = 1.6 + or - 0.2, respectively. The total Galactic mass-return rate from these CSs is estimated as 0.013 solar mass/yr, implying a time scale of 0.1-1 Myr for the CS evolutionary phase and a mass of 1.2-1.6 solar mass for the (probably F-type) main-seqence progenitors of CSs.

Claussen, M. J.↗

Test of a geometric model for the modification stage of simple impact crater development

This paper presents a geometric model describing the geometry of the transient cavity of an impact crater and the subsequent collapse of its walls to form a crater filled by an interior breccia lens. The model is tested by comparing the volume of slump material calculated from known dimensional parameters with the volume of the breccia lens estimated on the basis of observational data. Results obtained from the model were found to be consistent with observational data, particularly in view of the highly sensitive nature of the model to input parameters.

Grieve, R. A. F.↗

Observing System Variations Effect on Reanalyses

Reanalyses integrate multitudes of satellite and conventional observations data assimilation and numerical weather prediction. The result is that many disparate observation platforms, discontinuous in space and time, lead to complete and consistent representations the state of the weather. The component also provides physical fields rarely or never observed. However, the numerical model bias is continuously being corrected by the observational analysis, and this bias changes as variations in the observations occur. NASA's Modern Era Retrospective-analysis for Research and Applications (MERRA) sensitivity to variations in the observing systems are explored. Specifically, we will evaluate the water budget and transport processes as they relate to the advent of SSM/I and AMSU-A radiance assimilation, and an additional case of radiosonde station that exhibits a dramatic shift in mean water states. The MERRA input observation data, now available online, is used to explore these variations.

Bosilovich, Michael G.↗

Earth System Modeling and Field Experiments in the Arctic-Boreal Zone - Report from a NASA Workshop

Early climate modeling studies predicted that the Arctic Ocean and surrounding circumpolar land masses would heat up earlier and faster than other parts of the planet as a result of greenhouse gas-induced climate change, augmented by the sea-ice albedo feedback effect. These predictions have been largely borne out by observations over the last thirty years. However, despite constant improvement, global climate models have greater difficulty in reproducing the current climate in the Arctic than elsewhere and the scatter between projections from different climate models is much larger in the Arctic than for other regions. Biogeochemical cycle (BGC) models indicate that the warming in the Arctic-Boreal Zone (ABZ) could lead to widespread thawing of the permafrost, along with massive releases of CO2 and CH4, and large-scale changes in the vegetation cover in the ABZ. However, the uncertainties associated with these BGC model predictions are even larger than those associated with the physical climate system models used to describe climate change. These deficiencies in climate and BGC models reflect, at least in part, an incomplete understanding of the Arctic climate system and can be related to inadequate observational data or analyses of existing data. A workshop was held at NASA/GSFC, May 22-24 2012, to assess the predictive capability of the models, prioritize the critical science questions; and make recommendations regarding new field experiments needed to improve model subcomponents. This presentation will summarize the findings and recommendations of the workshop, including the need for aircraft and flux tower measurements and extension of existing in-situ measurements to improve process modeling of both the physical climate and biogeochemical cycle systems. Studies should be directly linked to remote sensing investigations with a view to scaling up the improved process models to the Earth System Model scale. Data assimilation and observing system simulation studies should be used to guide the deployment pattern and schedule for inversion studies as well. Synthesis and integration of previously funded Arctic-Boreal projects (e.g., ABLE, BOREAS, ICESCAPE, ICEBRIDGE, ARCTAS) should also be undertaken. Such an effort would include the integration of multiple remotely sensed products from the EOS satellites and other resources.

Sellers, Piers↗

A New Approach for Obtaining Cosmological Constraints from Type Ia Supernovae using Approximate Bayesian Computation

Cosmological parameter estimation techniques that robustly account for systematic measurement uncertainties will be crucial for the next generation of cosmological surveys. We present a new analysis method, superABC, for obtaining cosmological constraints from Type Ia supernova (SN Ia) light curves using Approximate Bayesian Computation (ABC) without any likelihood assumptions. The ABC method works by using a forward model simulation of the data where systematic uncertainties can be simulated and marginalized over. A key feature of the method presented here is the use of two distinct metrics, the `Tripp' and `Light Curve' metrics, which allow us to compare the simulated data to the observed data set. The Tripp metric takes as input the parameters of models fit to each light curve with the SALT-II method, whereas the Light Curve metric uses the measured fluxes directly without model fitting. We apply the superABC sampler to a simulated data set of $\sim$1000 SNe corresponding to the first season of the Dark Energy Survey Supernova Program. Varying $\Omega_m, w_0, \alpha$ and $\beta$ and a magnitude offset parameter, with no systematics we obtain $\Delta(w_0) = w_0^{\rm true} - w_0^{\rm best \, fit} = -0.036\pm0.109$ (a $\sim11$% 1$\sigma$ uncertainty) using the Tripp metric and $\Delta(w_0) = -0.055\pm0.068$ (a $\sim7$% 1$\sigma$ uncertainty) using the Light Curve metric. Including 1% calibration uncertainties in four passbands, adding 4 more parameters, we obtain $\Delta(w_0) = -0.062\pm0.132$ (a $\sim14$% 1$\sigma$ uncertainty) using the Tripp metric. Overall we find a $17$% increase in the uncertainty on $w_0$ with systematics compared to without. We contrast this with a MCMC approach where systematic effects are approximately included. We find that the MCMC method slightly underestimates the impact of calibration uncertainties for this simulated data set.

79 ASTRONOMY AND ASTROPHYSICS↗