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Search indexed NASA NTRS and DOE OSTI research on propulsion, heat transfer, battery materials and energy systems. Follow report and document links to the original sources.

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At least 343 records · Page 19
All sourcesNASA NTRSDOE OSTI
DOE OSTI2020

Prediction of gas hydrate saturation using machine learning and optimal set of well-logs

We report resistivity and acoustic logs are widely used to estimate gas hydrate saturation in various sedimentary systems using one of the two popular methods ((1) acoustic velocity and (2) electrical resistivity), but the limitations of these two methods are often overlooked, which include (i) well-specific calibration of empirical exponents in the electrical resistivity method, (ii) assumption of known pore morphology for gas hydrates in the acoustic velocity method, and (iii) presence of unknown mineralogy and bulk modulus terms in the acoustic velocity method. NMR-density porosity-derived gas hydrate saturation based on the analysis of the transverse magnetization relaxation time (T2) is considered the most precise method, but acquisition of NMR-based logs is limited at relatively recent drilled sites; additionally, its use in conventional oil and gas reservoirs is not that common due to higher cost and operational deployment limitations associated with acquiring NMR well-logs. This study proposes a new method that predicts gas hydrate saturation (S h ) for any well using porosity, bulk density, and compressional wave (P wave) velocity well-logs with neural network (or stochastic gradient descent regression) without any well-specific calibration and/or other aforementioned shortcomings of the existing methods. The method is developed by examining the underlying dependency between S h and different combinations of well-logs, chosen from 6 routine logs, with 12 different machine learning (ML) algorithms. The accuracy of the proposed method in predicting S h is ~ 84%, which is better than the accuracy of seismic and electrical resistivity methods (≤ 75%) per the results reported by three different studies. The robustness of the method in the specific case of permafrost-associated gas hydrates is demonstrated with well-log data from two wells drilled on the Alaska North Slope.

58 GEOSCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2023

The hazard components of representative key risks. The physical climate perspective

The framework of Representative Key Risks (RKRs) has been adopted by the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change Working Group II in order to categorize, assess and communicate a wide range of regional and sectoral key risks, expected to become severe as a consequence of the potentially detrimental convergence of changing climate conditions, exposure and vulnerability of human and natural systems, and responses through (mal)adaptation measures. Other papers in this special issue treat each of eight RKRs by holistically assessing their current status and future evolution as a result of this convergence. However, their treatment cannot always organize such assessment according to a systematic gradation of climatic changes, often times having to extrapolate the big-picture evolution of risk from either qualitative effects of “low” medium” and “high” warming, or limited/focused analysis of the consequences of particular mitigation choices (e.g., benefits of limiting warming to 1.5 or 2C). In this study we offer as systematic a representation as possible – given current literature and assessments – of the future evolution of the hazard components of RKRs. We draw on the assessment of changes in climatic impact-drivers relevant to RKRs described in the 6th Assessment Report by Working Group 1 (WGI) supplemented when needed by more recent literature. We identify the relevant hazards for each RKR, based upon the WGII authors’ assessment, and we report on their current state and expected future changes in magnitude, intensity and/or frequency, linking these changes to Global Warming Levels to the extent possible. For some of these quantities - like regional trends in oceanic and atmospheric temperature and precipitation, some heat and precipitation extremes, permafrost thaw and Northern Hemisphere snow cover - a strong and quantitative relationship with global average temperature change has been assessed. For others - like frequency and intensity of tropical cyclones and extra-tropical storms, and fire weather - the link to increasing global temperatures can only be described qualitatively. For some processes - like the behavior of ice-sheets, or changes in circulation dynamics - large uncertainties about the effects of different levels of warming remain, and for a few others - like ocean pH and air pollution - the composition of the scenario of anthropogenic emissions is most relevant, rather than the warming reached. In almost all cases, however, the basic message remains that every small increment in CO2 concentration in the atmosphere and associated warming will bring changes in climate phenomena that will contribute to increasing risk of impacts on human and natural systems when these changes happen in conjunction with these systems’ conditions of exposure and vulnerability, and in lack of effective adaptation. Our picture of the evolution of RKR-relevant climatic impact-drivers complements and enriches the treatment of RKRs in the other papers in at least two ways: by filling in an often only cursory or limited representation of the physical climate aspects driving impacts, and by providing a fuller representation of their future possible evolution which represents an important component – if never the only one – of the potential future evolution of risk severity.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2026

Analyzing historical snow trends in interior Alaska

Study region The Chena River watershed in Interior Alaska, USA Study focus This study examines 40 years (water years 1982–2021) of snowpack characteristics to consider its hydrological implications in the 5350 km² Chena River basin. Using observations and a fine-scale physics model, we analyzed trends of snow water equivalent (SWE), snow onset and disappearance, and snow cover duration (SCD). New hydrological insights for the region Results indicate a decline in SWE across the modeled domain, averaging a decrease of 3 mm per decade, with larger decreases (up to 10 mm per decade) at lower elevations. While domain-averaged SWE trends were not statistically significant, observed SCD showed statistically significant decreases: −5.2, −5.0, and −4.4 days per decade at Teuchet Creek, Fairbanks F.O., and Little Chena Ridge, respectively. Notably, observations at SNOTEL stations and modeling revealed no statistically significant change in domain-averaged Rain-on-Snow (ROS) events over the 40-year period, contrasting some regional future estimates of increased ROS frequency. Peak streamflow did not consistently correlate with peak SWE levels, suggesting that other environmental factors such as ROS events and rapid temperature increases (e.g., a 10°C spike observed in 1992) are key drivers of hydrological outcomes. These findings improve understanding of complex subarctic hydrological processes impacting permafrost and highlight the need for adaptive water resource management to mitigate multi-factor risks like flooding and wildfire, requiring proactive planning.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2022

Soil temperature mitigation due to vegetation biophysical feedbacks

Understanding the interactions between temperature regimes and vegetation cover is one of the key scientific topics in global environmental change and land surface process research. Recently, the prominent global greening trend has inspired considerable interest in examining climate feedbacks to vegetation changes. However, the impacts of recent widespread vegetation cover changes on soil temperature have been less documented and have received insufficient attention. Here, a high-resolution regional climate model was used to examine the potential impact of vegetation cover changes over the past 37 years, obtained as satellite observational data, on regional air and soil temperatures across the Heilong-Amur River Basin. Our sensitivity experiments indicated that the 1.85% increase in the regional fractional vegetation cover (FVC) from 1982 to 2018 cooled the air temperature by 0.045°C and the soil temperature by 0.19°C and that this cooling effect would continue in the near future, from 2016-2018 to 2051-2053. We found that soil temperatures were more sensitive to vegetation cover changes than air temperatures, particularly in mid-high latitude forest ecosystems; this finding helps to explain the nonsignificant decrease in soil temperatures in forest ecosystems over the past 40 years detected in the ERA5-Land reanalysis. Further, our results also suggest that vegetation restoration in forest ecosystems could mitigate the effects of climate change on permafrost environments by increasing the number of soil freezing days.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2021

Validation of strongly coupled geomechanics and gas hydrate reservoir simulation with multiscale laboratory tests

In this work, we validate a coupled flow-geomechanics simulator for gas hydrate deposits, named T+M AM , performing two meter-scale laboratory experiments of gas hydrates for production by depressurization, replicating the gas hydrate deposit in the Ulleung Basin, East Sea, South Korea. The first experiment with a sand-only specimen is a 1D 1 m-scale depressurization test based on the excess gas method, which represents the grain coating hydrate growth. On the other hand, the second is a 3D 1.5 m-scale test with the excess water method for a sand-mud alternating layer system, representing the pore filling hydrate growth. We measure production and displacement at the top with different depressurization levels. In particular, the 3D test exhibits high coupling strength of substantial deformation induced by incompressibility of water and high deformability of the specimen. For validation, we match pressure, flow rate, and displacement between the experimental data and numerical results. Thus, we identify that T+M AM is a reliable simulator, which can be applied to fields in both permafrost and deep oceanic hydrate deposits of strongly coupled flow and geomechanics systems. This validation also implies that other coupled simulators based on the same coupling formulation as T+M AM can be validated when individual flow and geomechanics simulators are stable and reliable.

02 PETROLEUM↗
DOE OSTI2020

A pseudo-kinetic model to simulate phase changes in gas hydrate bearing sediments

Herein, modeling of the phase transitions anticipated in gas hydrate bearing sediments (GHBS) is critical for a proper understanding of time-dependent changes in states and volumes (e.g. the production of methane from this type of soils). We propose a new pseudo-kinetic approach to simulate the typical phase changes anticipated in GHBS, using published experimental results involving gas hydrate dissociation that are the basis of a widely used kinetic model. The proposed pseudo-kinetic model is formulated in the pressure-temperature (P-T) plane and assumes a rate of gas hydrate dissociation (or formation) proportional to the distance between the current state and the phase boundary. The model consists of only one parameter and is simple to implement in numerical simulators. A similar concept is used to model ice formation/thawing phenomena, but based on the ice/liquid-water phase boundary. We implemented the pseudo-kinetic model in a fully coupled thermo-hydro-chemo-mechanical (THCM) finite element code and validated it against experimental results performed on the dissociation of synthetic gas hydrate. We also evaluated the pseudo-kinetic model using synthetic cases covering several scenarios associated with gas hydrate formation/dissociation and ice formation/thawing. The model successfully reproduced the gas production test from a natural GHBS core from Korea (scaled gas venting experiment over 14 h), and also the formation of gas hydrate and ice in permafrost in Alaska (over 2 × 10 6 years). -The analyses show the versatility of the proposed pseudo-kinetic approach by applying it to model the different types of phase transitions typically encounter in GHBS. The simple formulation, easy implementation in numerical simulator, and reduced number of parameters (only one per phase change) make this model an attractive option for simulating phase transformations in problems involving GHBS.

58 GEOSCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2022

The impact of multi-sensor land data assimilation on river discharge estimation

River discharge is one of the most critical renewable water resources. Accurately estimating river discharge with land surface models (LSMs) remains challenging due to the difficulty in estimating land water storages such as snow, soil moisture, and groundwater. While data assimilation (DA) ingesting optical, microwave, and gravity measurements from space can help constrain theses storage states, its impacts on runoff and eventually river discharge are not fully understood. In this study, by taking advantage of recently published land DA results that jointly assimilate eight different combinations of observations from the Moderate Resolution Imaging Spectroradiometer (MODIS), Gravity Recovery and Climate Experiment (GRACE), and Advanced Microwave Scanning Radiometer for EOS (AMSR-E), we quantify to what degree multi-sensor land DA improves the river discharge simulation skills over 40 global river basins, and investigate the complementary strengths of different satellite measurements on river discharge. To be more specific, river discharge is updated by feeding gridded runoff from the eight multi-sensor DA simulations into a vector-based river routing model named the Routing Application for Parallel computatIon of Discharge (RAPID). Our modeling results, including 7-year simulations at 177,458 river reaches globally, are used to study the seasonal to interannual variability of river discharge. It is found that assimilating GRACE has the greatest impact on global runoff patterns, leading to the most pronounced improvements in spatial river discharge in the middle and high latitudes with the R 2 increased by 0.16. The seasonal variation of spatial discharge is most skillful during the boreal summer. However, our evaluation also shows model and DA still struggle to generate reasonable variability and averaged discharge over permafrost regions. Finally, by assessing how different satellites add value to discharge forecasts, this study paves the way for more advanced multi-sensor satellite data assimilation to predict the terrestrial hydrological cycle.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2022

Numerical Simulations in Support of a Long-Term Test of Gas Production from Hydrate Accumulations on the Alaska North Slope: Reservoir Response to Interruptions of Production (Shut-Ins)

In this work, we investigate by means of numerical simulation a planned year-long field test of depressurization-induced production from a permafrost-associated hydrate reservoir on the Alaska North Slope at the site of the recently drilled Hydrate-01 Stratigraphic Test Well. The main objective of this study is to assess quantitatively the impact of temporary interruptions (well shut-ins) on the expected fluid production performance from the B1 Sand of the stratigraphic Unit B during controlled depressurization over different time scales, as well as on other relevant aspects of the system response that have the potential to significantly affect the design of the field test. We consider eight different cases of depressurization, including (a) rapid depressurization over a 60-day period to a terminal bottomhole pressure P W of 2.8 MPa and (b) a slower depressurization rate to a final P W of 0.6 MPa at the end of the year-long production test, in addition to (c) a multi-step depressurization regime and (d) a quasi-linear continuous depressurization strategy. The results of the study indicate that shut-ins obviously reduce gas release and production during and immediately after their occurrence, but their longer-term effects are strongly dependent on the depressurization regime and on the time of observation, covering the entire range of potential outcomes. Shut-ins (a) have a universally strong negative effect when quasi-linear depressurization is involved regardless of the length of the production period, and (b) have a strong positive effect in multi-step depressurization schemes that becomes apparent earlier for large initial pressure drops, but (c) can also appear to have practically no effect for slow stepwise depressurization at the end of the year-long production test. Shut-ins lead to a rapid reformation of hydrates, even to the point of disappearance of a free gas phase in the reservoir. Rapid depressurization regimes lead to early maximum rates of hydrate dissociation and gas production, while the maximum rates occur at the end of the production test for the cases of slower depressurization. Shut-ins do not appear to have a significant impact on water production, as the cessation of production is followed by higher rates production when depressurization resumes. Similarly, (a) the fraction of produced CH 4 originating from exsolution from the water, (b) the water-to-gas ratio, and (c) the rate of replenishment of produced water by boundary inflows do not appear significantly affected by shut-ins, the effects of which seem to be temporary in the majority of the cases. The study confirmed the superiority of multi-step depressurization methods as the most effective strategies for hydrate dissociation and gas production and showed that two observation wells (located at distances of 30 and 50 m from the production well) are appropriately positioned and both able to capture the P, T, and S G behavior during the fluid production and shut-ins in any of the eight cases we investigated.

03 NATURAL GAS↗
DOE OSTI2026

Consolidation and Permeability of the B1 and D1 Gas Hydrate Bearing Sands and Associated Seal Sediments of the Extended-Duration Gas Production Test Site on the Alaska North Slope

Gas hydrate, a solid combination of gas (mostly methane in nature) and water molecules stable at low temperatures and elevated pressures, occurs naturally in marine and permafrost-associated environments. Gas hydrate reservoirs, such as those in the Alaska North Slope, have been considered potential energy resources for gas production. To understand the petrophysical and geo-mechanical characteristics of the reservoir, core samples retrieved from the site of the JOGMEC-DOE-USGS collaborative gas hydrate R&D project have been analyzed in the laboratory for their hydraulic and mechanical properties. This paper focuses on both seal and reservoir samples associated with the B1 and D1 sands, which are evaluated for index properties (including porosity, grain size distribution, liquid and plastic limits, specific surface area, and specific gravity), consolidation, permeability, and water retention. Furthermore, the reservoir core samples were tested with pore-filling, laboratory-grown tetrahydrofuran hydrate, in order to assess reservoir behavior during gas production from hydrates. Under simulated in situ stress conditions, the seal and hydrate-free reservoir cores had a permeability anisotropy ratio of k h /k v = 3.0−5.0, and k h /k v = 2.4−3.0 for the reservoir tetrahydrofuran hydrate-bearing cores. The data suggest that depressurizing the reservoir to induce hydrate dissociation alters the reservoir effective permeability in three ways: permeabilities decrease due to porosity lost (e.g., the initial reservoir thickness can decrease by up to 5% upon 7 MPa depressurization), permeability increases due to the loss of solid hydrate in the pore space, and permeability anisotropy k h /k v decreases in response to the evolving pore-space geometry. We show that given the simulated in situ gas hydrate saturations (i.e., S h = 32% in core 7P-2E and S h = 21% in core 20P-4), gas production from the dissociation of tetrahydrofuran hydrate in the two tested cores results in a net increase in effective permeability and a decrease in k h /k v . This study highlights the importance of investigating seal and reservoir sediments and the impacts of depressurization on the porosity and permeability responses during production.

Geological materials↗
DOE OSTI2020

Timescales and Processes of Methane Hydrate Formation and Breakdown, With Application to Geologic Systems

Abstract Gas hydrate is an ice‐like form of water and low molecular weight gas stable at temperatures of roughly −10°C to 25°C and pressures of ~3 to 30 MPa in geologic systems. Natural gas hydrates sequester an estimated one sixth of Earth's methane and are found primarily in deepwater marine sediments on continental margins, but also in permafrost areas and under continental ice sheets. When gas hydrate is removed from its stability field, its breakdown has implications for the global carbon cycle, ocean chemistry, marine geohazards, and interactions between the geosphere and the ocean‐atmosphere system. Gas hydrate breakdown can also be artificially driven as a component of studies assessing the resource potential of these deposits. Furthermore, geologic processes and perturbations to the ocean‐atmosphere system (e.g., warming temperatures) can cause not only dissociation, but also more widespread dissolution of hydrate or even formation of new hydrate in reservoirs. Linkages between gas hydrate and disparate aspects of Earth's near‐surface physical, chemical, and biological systems render an assessment of the rates and processes affecting the persistence of gas hydrate an appropriate Centennial Grand Challenge. This paper reviews the thermodynamic controls on methane hydrate stability and then describes the relative importance of kinetic, mass transfer, and heat transfer processes in the formation and breakdown (dissociation and dissolution) of gas hydrate. Results from numerical modeling, laboratory, and some field studies are used to summarize the rates of hydrate formation and breakdown, followed by an extensive treatment of hydrate dynamics in marine and cryospheric gas hydrate systems.

58 GEOSCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2020

Modeling Holocene Peatland Carbon Accumulation in North America

Peatlands are a large carbon reservoir. Yet the quantification of their carbon stock still has a large uncertainty due to lacking observational data and well-tested peatland biogeochemistry models. Here, a process-based peatland model was calibrated using long-term peat carbon accumulation data at multiple sites in North America. The model was then applied to quantify the peat carbon accumulation rates and stocks within North America over the last 12,000 years. We estimated that 85–174 Pg carbon was accumulated in North American peatlands over the study period including 0.37–0.76 Pg carbon in subtropical peatlands. During the period from 10,000 to 8,000 years ago, the warmer and wetter conditions might have played an important role in stimulating peat carbon accumulation by enhancing plant photosynthesis. Enhanced peat decomposition due to warming slowed the carbon accumulation through the rest of the Holocene. While recent modeling studies indicate that the northern peatlands will continue to act as a carbon sink in this century, our studies suggest that future enhanced peat decomposition accompanied by peatland areal changes induced by permafrost degradation and other disturbances shall confound the sink and source analysis.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2020

A Monte Carlo Approach to Approximating the Effects of Pore Geometry on the Phase Behavior of Soil Freezing

Abstract Freezing in porous media is associated with a host of dynamic phenomena that stem from the presence and mobility of premelted liquid at subzero temperatures. Accurate assessments of the progressive liquid‐ice phase transition is required for predictive models of frost damage, glacier‐till coupling, and many other cold regions processes, as well as for evaluating the capacity for water storage in near‐surface extraterrestrial environments. We use a Monte Carlo approach to sample the pore space in a synthetic 3D packing of poly‐dispersed spherical particles and evaluate local geometrical constraints that allow us to assess changes in the relative proportions of pore fluid and ice. By approximating the phase boundary geometry in fine‐grained pores while considering both the curvature of the liquid‐ice interface and wetting interactions with matrix particles, our model predicts changes in phase equilibrium in granular media over a broad temperature range, where present accounting for the colligative effects of chloride and perchlorate solutes. In addition to formulating the constitutive behavior needed to better understand properties and processes in frozen soils, our results also provide insight into other aspects of phase equilibria in porous media, including the formation of methane hydrates in permafrost and marine sediments, and the partitioning between liquid water and vapor in the vadose zone.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2021

Climate Signatures on Lake And Wetland Size Distributions in Arctic Deltas

Abstract Understanding how thermokarst lakes on arctic river deltas will respond to rapid warming is critical for projecting how carbon storage and fluxes will change in those vulnerable environments. Yet, this understanding is currently limited partly due to the complexity of disentangling significant interannual variability from the longer‐term surface water signatures on the landscape, using the short summertime window of optical spaceborne observations. Here, we rigorously separate perennial lakes from ephemeral wetlands on 12 arctic deltas and report distinct size distributions and climate trends for the two waterbodies. Namely, we find a lognormal distribution for lakes and a power‐law distribution for wetlands, consistent with a simple proportionate growth model and inundated topography, respectively. Furthermore, while no trend with temperature is found for wetlands, a statistically significant decreasing trend of mean lake size with warmer temperatures is found, attributed to colder deltas having deeper and thicker permafrost preserving larger lakes.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2022

Radium Inputs Into the Arctic Ocean From Rivers: A Basin‐Wide Estimate

Abstract Radium isotopes have been used to trace nutrient, carbon, and trace metal fluxes inputs from ocean margins. However, these approaches require a full accounting of radium sources to the coastal ocean including rivers. Here, we aim to quantify river radium inputs into the Arctic Ocean for the first time for 226 Ra and to refine the estimates for 228 Ra. Using new and existing data, we find that the estimated combined (dissolved plus desorbed) annual 226 Ra and 228 Ra fluxes to the Arctic Ocean are [7.0–9.4] × 10 14 dpm y −1 and [15–18] × 10 14 dpm y −1 , respectively. Of these totals, 44% and 60% of the river 226 Ra and 228 Ra, respectively are from suspended sediment desorption, which were estimated from laboratory incubation experiments. Using Ra isotope data from 20 major rivers around the world, we derived global annual 226 Ra and 228 Ra fluxes of [7.4–17] × 10 15 and [15–27] × 10 15 dpm y −1 , respectively. As climate change spurs rapid Arctic warming, hydrological cycles are intensifying and coastal ice cover and permafrost are diminishing. These river radium inputs to the Arctic Ocean will serve as a valuable baseline as we attempt to understand the changes that warming temperatures are having on fluxes of biogeochemically important elements to the Arctic coastal zone.

Bullock, Emma J.↗
DOE OSTI2024

The Potential of Hydrogeodesy to Address Water-Related and Sustainability Challenges

Increasing climatic and human pressures are changing the world's water resources and hydrological processes at unprecedented rates. Understanding these changes requires comprehensive monitoring of water resources. Hydrogeodesy, the science that measures the Earth's solid and aquatic surfaces, gravity field, and their changes over time, delivers a range of novel monitoring tools that are complementary to traditional hydrological methods. It encompasses geodetic technologies such as Altimetry, Interferometric Synthetic Aperture Radar (InSAR), Gravimetry, and Global Navigation Satellite Systems (GNSS). Beyond quantifying these changes, there is a need to understand how hydrogeodesy can contribute to more ambitious goals dealing with water-related and sustainability sciences. Addressing this need, we combine a meta-analysis of over 3,000 articles to chart the range, trends, and applications of satellite-based hydrogeodesy with an expert elicitation that systematically assesses the potential of hydrogeodesy. We find a growing body of literature relating to the advancements in hydrogeodetic methods, their accuracy and precision, and their inclusion in hydrological modeling, with a considerably smaller portion related to understanding hydrological processes, water management, and sustainability sciences. The meta-analysis also shows that while lakes, groundwater and glaciers are commonly monitored by these technologies, wetlands or permafrost could benefit from a wider range of applications. In turn, the expert elicitation envisages the potential of hydrogeodesy to help solve the 23 Unsolved Questions of the International Association of Hydrological Sciences and advance knowledge as guidance toward a safe operating space for humanity. It also highlights how this potential can be maximized by combining hydrogeodetic technologies simultaneously, exploiting artificial intelligence, and accurately integrating other Earth science disciplines. Finally, we call for a coordinated way forward to include hydrogeodesy in tertiary education and broaden its application to water-related and sustainability sciences in order to exploit its full potential.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2025

Advancing the Understanding of Snow Accumulation, Melting, and Associated Thermal Insulation Using Spatially Dense Snow Depth and Temperature Time Series

Snow thermal insulation is a critical factor influencing ground thermal dynamics and associated biogeochemical processes. We analyzed the spatiotemporal variability of snow accumulation, melting, and thermal insulation dynamics using spatially dense, collocated snow depth and ground interface temperature time series over two consecutive years. We demonstrated that considering late‐winter snow depth alone was insufficient to fully capture the complexity in snow and insulation dynamics. The influence of vegetation and topography on snow depth distribution varied over the season, across sites and years. We found that deep snow with a long melting period had a substantial impact on thawing n‐factors. To better predict snow insulation effects, we proposed a new weighted snow depth metric that integrates mean daily snow depth and air temperature throughout the cold season. Our results provide insights for developing space‐time remote sensing products and evaluating the representation of snow and permafrost processes in Earth system models.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2025

Disentangling the Impacts of Microtopography and Shrub Distribution on Snow Depth in a Subarctic Watershed: Toward a Predictive Understanding of Snow Spatial Variability

Snow plays a critical role in carbon cycling, vegetation dynamics, and permafrost hydrology at high latitudes by influencing surface energy exchange. Predicting snow distribution patterns is essential for understanding the evolution of Arctic ecosystems, yet scaling process-level knowledge to landscape predictions remains challenging. Here, we analyze snow depth (2019 and 2022), terrain elevation, and vegetation height from a watershed on the Seward Peninsula, Alaska, to examine how topography and shrubs shape snow redistribution across spatial scales. We find that snow depth is strongly coupled to terrain at scales below ∼60 m but becomes increasingly decoupled at larger scales. The topographic model of snow depth variation, which transforms terrain data to align with these scale-dependent snow patterns, is well correlated with local snow depth variations (linear fit R 2 > 0.5 for 85% of 100-m patches). A machine learning reconstruction of shrub canopy snow trapping reveals a simple exponential relationship between canopy structure and snow accumulation ( R 2 = 0.59), highlighting the combined influence of topography and vegetation on snow distribution. Together, these empirical relationships capture much of the observed snow variability in the watershed ( R 2 = 0.49, root mean square error (RMSE) = 30 cm), though systematic limitations persist in areas of strong scour and at coarser scales where wind-terrain interactions are more complex. These findings provide a framework for more efficient snow depth prediction and offer insights to improve snow-vegetation feedback representation in Earth System Models.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2026

Informing Robust Functional Relationship Benchmarks: An Evaluation of the Temperature Sensitivity of Ecosystem Respiration Across the Arctic-Boreal Region

During land model development, simulated carbon dynamics are often benchmarked against observational data sets to evaluate model performance. Functional relationship benchmarks are the relationship between a driving variable (e.g., temperature) and a response variable (e.g., ecosystem respiration) and are a promising tool for assessing model performance by evaluating modeled sensitivities to changing environmental conditions. However, observed functional relationships can be influenced by choices made during data collection and throughout the benchmarking process, impacting the inferred skill of land models. To avoid misrepresenting a model's true performance, it is necessary to systematically evaluate best practices when constructing functional relationship benchmarks. We developed a set of guidelines for constructing functional relationship benchmarks, considering the choice of data set, number of daily observations, temporal extent, and temporal resolution across Alaska and Canada over a 20-year period from 2001 to 2020. The temperature sensitivity of ecosystem respiration from observations, evaluated through an apparent Q 10 , is highly variable both spatially and as a result of the data processing approach applied in the benchmark formation. When benchmarking 13 models from the Warming Permafrost Model Intercomparison Project (WrPMIP), the range in inferred model skill is substantially impacted by the choices applied in constructing functional relationship benchmarks. The inferred performance of a given model is most sensitive to the number of daily observations and temporal extent, followed by choice of benchmark data set and temporal averaging. Results from this analysis can guide the development of consistent and robust functional relationships for future model evaluation studies.

Poe, Jeralyn [Northern Arizona University, Flagsta↗