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NASA NTRS2005

An Improved Analysis of Forest Carbon Dynamics using Data Assimilation

There are two broad approaches to quantifying landscape C dynamics - by measuring changes in C stocks over time, or by measuring fluxes of C directly. However, these data may be patchy, and have gaps or biases. An alternative approach to generating C budgets has been to use process-based models, constructed to simulate the key processes involved in C exchange. However, the process of model building is arguably subjective, and parameters may be poorly defined. This paper demonstrates why data assimilation (DA) techniques - which combine stock and flux observations with a dynamic model - improve estimates of, and provide insights into, ecosystem carbon (C) exchanges. We use an ensemble Kalman filter (EnKF) to link a series of measurements with a simple box model of C transformations. Measurements were collected at a young ponderosa pine stand in central Oregon over a 3-year period, and include eddy flux and soil C02 efflux data, litterfall collections, stem surveys, root and soil cores, and leaf area index data. The simple C model is a mass balance model with nine unknown parameters, tracking changes in C storage among five pools; foliar, wood and fine root pools in vegetation, and also fresh litter and soil organic matter (SOM) plus coarse woody debris pools. We nested the EnKF within an optimization routine to generate estimates from the data of the unknown parameters and the five initial conditions for the pools. The efficacy of the DA process can be judged by comparing the probability distributions of estimates produced with the EnKF analysis vs. those produced with reduced data or model alone. Using the model alone, estimated net ecosystem exchange of C (NEE)= -251 f 197g Cm-2 over the 3 years, compared with an estimate of -419 f 29gCm-2 when all observations were assimilated into the model. The uncertainty on daily measurements of NEE via eddy fluxes was estimated at 0.5gCm-2 day-1, but the uncertainty on assimilated estimates averaged 0.47 g Cm-2 day-1, and only exceeded 0.5gC m-2 day-1 on days where neither eddy flux nor soil efflux data were available. In generating C budgets, the assimilation process reduced the uncertainties associated with using data or model alone and the forecasts of NEE were statistically unbiased estimates. The results of the analysis emphasize the importance of time series as constraints. Occasional, rare measurements of stocks have limited use in constraining the estimates of other components of the C cycle. Long time series are particularly crucial for improving the analysis of pools with long time constants, such as SOM, woody biomass, and woody debris. Long-running forest stem surveys, and tree ring data, offer a rich resource that could be assimilated to provide an important constraint on C cycling of slow pools. For extending estimates of NEE across regions, DA can play a further important role, by assimilating remote-sensing data into the analysis of C cycles. We show, via sensitivity analysis, how assimilating an estimate of photosynthesis - which might be provided indirectly by remotely sensed data - improves the analysis of NEE.

Williams, Mathew↗
NASA NTRS2005

Mass Changes of the Greenland and Antarctic Ice Sheets and Shelves and Contributions to Sea-level Rise: 1992-2002

Changes in ice mass are estimated from elevation changes derived from 10.5 years (Greenland) and 9 years (Antarctica) of satellite radar altimetry data from the European Remote-sensing Satellites ERS-1 and -2. For the first time, the dH/dt values are adjusted for changes in surface elevation resulting from temperature-driven variations in the rate of fun compaction. The Greenland ice sheet is thinning at the margins (-42 plus or minus 2 Gta(sup -1) below the equilibrium line altitude (ELA)) and growing inland (+53 plus or minus 2 Gt a(sup -1)above the ELA) with a small overall mass gain (+11 plus or minus 3 Gt a(sup -1); -0.03 mm a(sup -1) SLE (sea level equivalent)). The ice sheet in West Antarctica (WA) is losing mass (-47 (dot) 4 GT a(sup -1) and the ice sheet in East Antarctica (EA) shows a small mass gain (+16 plus or minus 11 Gt a(sup -1) for a combined net change of -31 plus or minus 12 Gt a(sup -1) (+0.08 mm a(sup -1) SLE)). The contribution of the three ice sheets to sea level is +0.05 plus or minus 0.03 mm a(sup -1). The Antarctic ice shelves show corresponding mass changes of -95 (dot) 11 Gt a(sup -1) in WA and +142 plus or minus 10 Gt a(sup -1) in EA. Thinning at the margins of the Greenland ice sheet and growth at higher elevations is an expected response to increasing temperatures and precipitation in a warming climate. The marked thinnings in the Pine Island and Thwaites Glacier basins of WA and the Totten Glacier basin in EA are probably ice-dynamic responses to long-term climate change and perhaps past removal of their adjacent ice shelves. The ice growth in the southern Antarctic Peninsula and parts of EA may be due to increasing precipitation during the last century.

Zwally, H. Jay↗
NASA NTRS1998

Fast Recession of a West Antarctic Glacier

Satellite radar interferometry observations of Pine Island Glacier, in West Antarctica, reveal that the hinge-line position of this major ice stream retreated 1.2+/-0.2 km per year between 1992 and 1996, which in turn implies ice thinning at 3.5+/-0.6m ice per year.

antarctic glacier radar ice thinning ice sheet rad↗
NASA NTRS1998

Estimating Subcanopy Soil Moisture with RADAR

The subcanopy soil moisture of a boreal old jack pine forest is estimated using polarimetric L- and P-band AIRSAR data. Model simulations have shown that for this stand, the principal scattering mechanism responsible for radar backscatter is the double-bounce mechanism between the tree trunks and the ground.

radar soil moisture vegetation non-linear estimati↗
NASA NTRS1996

Monitoring Tree Moisture Using an Inversion Algorithm Applied to SAR Data from BOREAS

During several field campaigns in spring and summer of '94, the NASA/JPL air-borne sythetic aperature radar (AIRSAR) collected data over the southern and northern study sites of BOREAS. Among the areas over which radar data were collected was the young jack pine tower site, which is generally characterized as have shot but closely space trees with a dense crown layer.

forest canopy moisture↗
NASA NTRS1999

Data Structure and Parallel Decomposition Considerations on a Fibonacci Grid

The Fibonacci grid, proposed by Swinbank and Purser (see companion abstract), provides attractive properties for global numerical atmospheric prediction by offering an optimally homogeneous, geometrically regular, and approximately isotropic discretization, with only the polar regions requiring special numerical treatment. It is a mathematical idealization, applied to the sphere, of the multi-spiral patterns often found in botanical structures, such as in pine cones and sunflower heads. Computationally, it is natural to organize the domain, into zones, in each of which the same pair, or triple, of "Fibonacci spirals" dominate. But the further subdivision of such zones into "tiles" of a shape and size suitable for distribution to the processors of a massively parallel computer requires very careful consideration if the subsequent spatial computations along the respective spirals, especially those computations (such as compact differencing schemes) that involve recursion, can be implemented in an efficient "load-balanced "manner without requiring excessive amounts of inter-processor communications. In this paper we show how certain "number theoretic" properties of the Fibonacci sequence (whose numbers prescribe the multiplicity of successive spirals) may be exploited in the decomposition of grid zones into tidy arrangements of triangular grid tiles, each tile possessing one side approximately parallel to the constant-latitude zone boundary. We also describe how the spatially recursive processes may be decomposed across such a tiling, and the directionality of the recursions reversed on alternate grid lines, to ensure a very high degree of load balancing throughout the execution of the computations required for one time step of a global model.

Michalakes, John↗
NASA NTRS2007

Use of AIRS, OMI, MLS, and TES Data in Assessing Forest Ecosystem Exposure to Ozone

Ground-level ozone at high levels poses health threats to exposed flora and fauna, including negative impacts to human health. While concern is common regarding depletion of ozone in the stratosphere, portions of the urban and rural United States periodically have high ambient levels of tropospheric ozone on the ground. Ozone pollution can cause a variety of impacts to susceptible vegetation (e.g., Ponderosa and Jeffrey pine species in the southwestern United States), such as stunted growth, alteration of growth form, needle or leaf chlorosis, and impaired ability to withstand drought-induced water stress. In addition, Southern Californian forests with high ozone exposures have been recently subject to multiyear droughts that have led to extensive forest overstory mortality from insect outbreaks and increased incidence of wildfires. Residual forests in these impacted areas may be more vulnerable to high ozone exposures and to other forest threats than ever before. NASA sensors collect a wealth of atmospheric data that have been used recently for mapping and monitoring regional tropospheric ozone levels. AIRS (Atmospheric Infrared Sounder), OMI (Ozone Monitoring Instrument), MLS (Microwave Limb Sounder), and TES (Tropospheric Emission Spectrometer) data could be used to assess forest ecosystem exposure to ozone. Such NASA data hold promise for providing better or at least complementary synoptic information on ground-level ozone levels that Federal agency partners can use to assess forest health trends and to mitigate the threats as needed in compliance with Federal laws and mandates. NASA data products on ozone concentrations may be able to aid applications of DSTs (decision support tools) adopted by the USDA FS (U.S. Department of Agriculture Forest Service) and by the NPS (National Park Service), such as the Ozone Calculator, in which ground ozone estimates are employed to assess ozone impacts to forested vegetation.

Spruce, Joseph P.↗
NASA NTRS2008

Learning from Space Entrepreneurs

The early days of rocketry and space exploration in the United States were marked by incredibly rapid progress: a seemingly endless parade of firsts. Not coincidentally, this period also saw more than its fair share of failure, especially in the infamous "kaputnik" days prior to the successful launch of Explorer. Without a standard canon of known quantities to turn to, the early pioneers of rocketry and space flight were forced to dream up new ideas that ranged from the elegant to the bizarre and to accept the fact that the price of radical progress is occasional failure. Nowadays, rapid prototyping and testing have slowed, as we rely more and more on the extensive knowledge pined by our predecessors and on the embarrassment of riches modern engineers get from computational modeling and computer assisted design. In many cases, this leads to much improved or phenomenally more efficient designs. It also, however, fosters a culture so terrified of failure that we over-engineer and overanalyze everything, often tweaking designs for decades before a new system takes flight. (This is not a problem unique to rockets; the same phenomenon seems to have occurred in high-performance jets.) This is one reason why it was possible for President Kennedy to dream of the completion of the Mercury and Gemini missions and a successful landing on the moon in under a decade, while returning to the moon may take nearly twice as long. Lacking access to the tremendous computational resources of the national space program-and, just as importantly, removed from the harsh judgment of public shareholders or congressional appropriations committees-the hungry entrepreneurs who compete for our prizes tend not to display such fear of failure. Instead, most of them follow a rapid "build, test, fly" program. They are willing to throw a handful of concepts against the wall and see what sticks. They often go from drawing on the back of a napkin to firing engines or even flying vehicles in a matter of weeks or months, learning valuable lessons along the way. Indeed, our teams have repeatedly learned many of the most valuable lessons after only a few moments of working with real hardware-lessons that could never have been learned from a CAD drawing, like finding the failure modes of different welding practices or tracking down the interference between an onboard camera and a GPS unit. As Paul Breed, the leader of a Northrop Grumman Lunar Lander Challenge team (playfully called Unreasonable Rocket), is fond of saying, "In computer simulations the plumbing never leaks. In real life, it always does."

Pomerantz, William↗
NASA NTRS2008

Long-Term Effects of Soldering By-Products on Nickel-Coated Copper Wire

An analysis of thirty-year-old, down graded flight cables was conducted to determine the makeup of a green material on the surface of the shielded wire near soldered areas and to ascertain if the green material had corroded the nickel-coated copper wire. Two likely candidates were possible due to the handling and environments to which these cables were exposed. The flux used to solder the cables is known to contain abietic acid, a carboxylic acid found in many pine rosins used for the soldering process. The resulting material copper abietate is green in color and is formed during the application of heat during soldering operations. Copper (II) chloride, which is also green in color is known to contaminate flight parts and is corrosive. Data is presented that shows the material is copper abietate, not copper (II) chloride, and more importantly that the abietate does not aggressively attack nickel-plated copper wire.

Rolin, T. D.↗
NASA NTRS2007

Emissions from Forest Fires near Mexico City

The emissions of NOx (defined as NO (nitric oxide) + NO2 (nitrogen dioxide)) and hydrogen cyanide (HCN), per unit amount of fuel burned, from fires in the pine forests that dominate the mountains surrounding Mexico City (MC) are about 2 times higher than normally observed for forest burning. The ammonia (NH3) emissions are about average for forest burning. The upper limit for the mass ratio of NOX to volatile organic compounds (VOC) for these MC-area mountain fires was approximately 0.38, which is similar to the NOx/VOC ratio in the MC urban area emissions inventory of 0.34, but much larger than the NOx/VOC ratio for tropical forest fires in Brazil (approximately 0.068). The nitrogen enrichment in the fire emissions may be due to deposition of nitrogen-containing pollutants in the outflow from the MC urban area. This effect may occur worldwide wherever biomass burning coexists with large urban areas (e.g. the tropics, southeastern US, Los Angeles Basin). The molar emission ratio of HCN to carbon monoxide (CO) for the mountain fires was 0.012 +/- 0.007, which is 2-9 times higher than widely used literature values for biomass burning. The ambient molar ratio HCN/CO in the MC-area outflow is about 0.003 +/- 0.0003. Thus, if only mountain fires emit significant amounts of HCN, these fires may be contributing about 25% of the CO production in the MCarea (approximately 98-100 W and 19-20 N). Comparing the PM10/CO and PM2.5/CO mass ratios in the MC Metropolitan Area emission inventory (0.01 15 and 0.0037) to the PM1/CO mass ratio for the mountain fires (0.133) then suggests that these fires could produce as much as approximately 79-92% of the primary fine particle mass generated in the MC-area. Considering both the uncertainty in the HCN/CO ratios and secondary aerosol formation in the urban and fire emissions implies that about 50 +/- 30% of the "aged" fine particle mass in the March 2006 MC-area outflow could be from these fires.

Yokelson, R.↗
NASA NTRS2010

Overview of Ice-Sheet Mass Balance and Dynamics from ICESat Measurements

The primary purpose of the ICESat mission was to determine the present-day mass balance of the Greenland and Antarctic ice sheets, identify changes that may be occurring in the surface-mass flux and ice dynamics, and estimate their contributions to global sea-level rise. Although ICESat's three lasers were planned to make continuous measurements for 3 to 5 years, the mission was re-planned to operate in 33-day campaigns 2 to 3 times each year following failure of the first laser after 36 days. Seventeen campaigns were conducted with the last one in the Fall of 2009. Mass balance maps derived from measured ice-sheet elevation changes show that the mass loss from Greenland has increased significantly to about 170 Gt/yr for 2003 to 2007 from a state of near balance in the 1990's. Increased losses (189 Gt/yr) from melting and dynamic thinning are over seven times larger'than increased gains (25 gt/yr) from precipitation. Parts of the West Antarctic ice sheet and the Antarctic Peninsula are losing mass at an increasing rate, but other parts of West Antarctica and the East Antarctic ice sheet are gaining mass at an increasing rate. Increased losses of 35 Gt/yr in Pine Island, Thwaites-Smith, and Marie-Bryd.Coast are more than balanced by gains in base of Peninsula and ice stream C, D, & E systems. From the 1992-2002 to 2003-2007 period, the overall mass balance for Antarctica changed from a loss of about 60 Gt/yr to near balance or slightly positive.

Zwally, H. Jay↗
NASA NTRS2005

Compact Infrasonic Windscreen

A compact windscreen has been conceived for a microphone of a type used outdoors to detect atmospheric infrasound from a variety of natural and manmade sources. Wind at the microphone site contaminates received infrasonic signals (defined here as sounds having frequencies <20 Hz), because a microphone cannot distinguish between infrasonic pressures (which propagate at the speed of sound) and convective pressure fluctuations generated by wind turbulence. Hence, success in measurement of outdoor infrasound depends on effective screening of the microphone from the wind. The present compact windscreen is based on a principle: that infrasound at sufficiently large wavelength can penetrate any barrier of practical thickness. Thus, a windscreen having solid, non-porous walls can block convected pressure fluctuations from the wind while transmitting infrasonic acoustic waves. The transmission coefficient depends strongly upon the ratio between the acoustic impedance of the windscreen and that of air. Several materials have been found to have impedance ratios that render them suitable for use in constructing walls that have practical thicknesses and are capable of high transmission of infrasound. These materials (with their impedance ratios in parentheses) are polyurethane foam (222), space shuttle tile material (332), balsa (323), cedar (3,151), and pine (4,713).

Zuckerwar, Allan J.↗
NASA NTRS2011

Thickening and Thinning of Antarctic Ice Shelves and Tongues and Mass Balance Estimates

Previous analysis of elevation changes for 1992 to 2002 obtained from measurements by radar altimeters on ERS-l and 2 showed that the shelves in the Antarctic Peninsula (AP) and along the coast of West Antarctica (WA), including the eastern part of the Ross Ice Shelf, were mostly thinning and losing mass whereas the Ronne Ice shelf also in WA was mostly thickening. The estimated total mass loss for the floating ice shelves and ice tongues from ice draining WA and the AP was 95 Gt/a. In contrast, the floating ice shelves and ice tongues from ice draining East Antarctica (EA), including the Filchner, Fimbul, Amery, and Western Ross, were mostly thickening with a total estimated mass gain of 142 Gt/a. Data from ICESat laser altimetry for 2003-2008 gives new surface elevation changes (dH/dt) with some similar values for the earlier and latter periods, including -27.6 and -26.9 cm a-Ion the West Getz ice shelf and -42.4 and - 27.2 cm/a on the East Getz ice shelf, and some values that indicate more thinning in the latter period, including -17.9 and -36.2 cm/a on the Larsen C ice shelf, -35.5 and -76.0 cm/a on the Pine Island Glacier floating, -60.5 and -125.7 .cm/a on the Smith Glacier floating, and -34.4 and -108.9 cm/a on the Thwaites Glacier floating. Maps of measured dH/dt and estimated thickness change are produced along with mass change estimates for 2003 - 2008.

Zwally, H. Jay↗
NASA NTRS2011

Normalization of Gravitational Acceleration Models

Unlike the uniform density spherical shell approximations of Newton, the con- sequence of spaceflight in the real universe is that gravitational fields are sensitive to the nonsphericity of their generating central bodies. The gravitational potential of a nonspherical central body is typically resolved using spherical harmonic approximations. However, attempting to directly calculate the spherical harmonic approximations results in at least two singularities which must be removed in order to generalize the method and solve for any possible orbit, including polar orbits. Three unique algorithms have been developed to eliminate these singularities by Samuel Pines [1], Bill Lear [2], and Robert Gottlieb [3]. This paper documents the methodical normalization of two1 of the three known formulations for singularity-free gravitational acceleration (namely, the Lear [2] and Gottlieb [3] algorithms) and formulates a general method for defining normalization parameters used to generate normalized Legendre Polynomials and ALFs for any algorithm. A treatment of the conventional formulation of the gravitational potential and acceleration is also provided, in addition to a brief overview of the philosophical differences between the three known singularity-free algorithms.

Eckman, Randy A.↗
NASA NTRS2011

Effective Tree Scattering and Opacity at L-Band

This paper investigates vegetation effects at L-band by using a first-order radiative transfer (RT) model and truck-based microwave measurements over natural conifer stands to assess the applicability of the tau-omega) model over trees. The tau-omega model is a zero-order RT solution that accounts for vegetation effects with effective vegetation parameters (vegetation opacity and single-scattering albedo), which represent the canopy as a whole. This approach inherently ignores multiple-scattering effects and, therefore, has a limited validity depending on the level of scattering within the canopy. The fact that the scattering from large forest components such as branches and trunks is significant at L-band requires that zero-order vegetation parameters be evaluated (compared) along with their theoretical definitions to provide a better understanding of these parameters in the retrieval algorithms as applied to trees. This paper compares the effective vegetation opacities, computed from multi-angular pine tree brightness temperature data, against the results of two independent approaches that provide theoretical and measured optical depths. These two techniques are based on forward scattering theory and radar corner reflector measurements, respectively. The results indicate that the effective vegetation opacity values are smaller than but of similar magnitude to both radar and theoretical estimates. The effective opacity of the zero-order model is thus set equal to the theoretical opacity and an explicit expression for the effective albedo is then obtained from the zero- and first- order RT model comparison. The resultant albedo is found to have a similar magnitude as the effective albedo value obtained from brightness temperature measurements. However, it is less than half of that estimated using the theoretical calculations (0.5 - 0.6 for tree canopies at L-band). This lower observed albedo balances the scattering darkening effect of the large theoretical albedo with a first-order multiple-scattering contribution. The retrieved effective albedo is different from theoretical definitions and not the albedo of single forest elements anymore, but it becomes a global parameter, which depends on all the processes taking place within the canopy, including multiple-scattering.

Kurum, Mehmet↗
NASA NTRS2011

Modeling the Height of Young Forests Regenerating from Recent Disturbances in Mississippi using Landsat and ICESat data

Many forestry and earth science applications require spatially detailed forest height data sets. Among the various remote sensing technologies, lidar offers the most potential for obtaining reliable height measurement. However, existing and planned spaceborne lidar systems do not have the capability to produce spatially contiguous, fine resolution forest height maps over large areas. This paper describes a Landsat-lidar fusion approach for modeling the height of young forests by integrating historical Landsat observations with lidar data acquired by the Geoscience Laser Altimeter System (GLAS) instrument onboard the Ice, Cloud, and land Elevation (ICESat) satellite. In this approach, "young" forests refer to forests reestablished following recent disturbances mapped using Landsat time-series stacks (LTSS) and a vegetation change tracker (VCT) algorithm. The GLAS lidar data is used to retrieve forest height at sample locations represented by the footprints of the lidar data. These samples are used to establish relationships between lidar-based forest height measurements and LTSS-VCT disturbance products. The height of "young" forest is then mapped based on the derived relationships and the LTSS-VCT disturbance products. This approach was developed and tested over the state of Mississippi. Of the various models evaluated, a regression tree model predicting forest height from age since disturbance and three cumulative indices produced by the LTSS-VCT method yielded the lowest cross validation error. The R(exp 2) and root mean square difference (RMSD) between predicted and GLAS-based height measurements were 0.91 and 1.97 m, respectively. Predictions of this model had much higher errors than indicated by cross validation analysis when evaluated using field plot data collected through the Forest Inventory and Analysis Program of USDA Forest Service. Much of these errors were due to a lack of separation between stand clearing and non-stand clearing disturbances in current LTSS-VCT products and difficulty in deriving reliable forest height measurements using GLAS samples when terrain relief was present within their footprints. In addition, a systematic underestimation of about 5 m by the developed model was also observed, half of which could be explained by forest growth that occurred between field measurement year and model target year. The remaining difference suggests that tree height measurements derived using waveform lidar data could be significantly underestimated, especially for young pine forests. Options for improving the height modeling approach developed in this study were discussed.

Li, Ainong↗
NASA NTRS2012

Quantitative Infrared Image Analysis Of Thermally-Thin Cellulose Surface Temperatures During Upstream and Downstream Microgravity Flame Spread from A Central Ignition Line

Surface view calibrated infrared images of ignition and flame spread over a thin cellulose fuel were obtained at 30 Hz during microgravity flame spread tests in the 10 second Japan Microgravity Center (JAMIC). The tests also used a color video of the surface view and color images of the edge view using 35 millimeter 1600 Kodak Ektapress film at 2 Hz. The cellulose fuel samples (50% long fibers from lumi pine and 50% short fibers from birch) were made with an area density of 60 grams per square meters. The samples were mounted in the center of a 12 centimeter wide by 16 centimeter tall flow duct that uses a downstream fan to draw the air through the flow duct. Samples were ignited after the experiment package was released using a straight hot wire across the center of the 7.5 centimeter wide by 14 centimeter long samples. One case, at 1 atmosphere 35%O2 in N2, at a forced flow of 10 centimeters per second, is presented here. In this case, as the test progresses, the single flame begins to separate into simultaneous upstream and downstream flames. Surface temperature profiles are evaluated as a function of time, and temperature gradients for upstream and downstream flame spread are measured. Flame spread rates from IR image data are compared to visible image spread rate data. IR blackbody temperatures are compared to surface thermocouple readings to evaluate the effective emissivity of the pyrolyzing surface. Preheat lengths are evaluated both upstream and downstream of the central ignition point. A surface energy balance estimates the net heat flux from the flame to the fuel surface along the length of the fuel.

Olson, Sandra L.↗
NASA NTRS2012

Mass Gains of the Antarctic Ice Sheet Exceed Losses

During 2003 to 2008, the mass gain of the Antarctic ice sheet from snow accumulation exceeded the mass loss from ice discharge by 49 Gt/yr (2.5% of input), as derived from ICESat laser measurements of elevation change. The net gain (86 Gt/yr) over the West Antarctic (WA) and East Antarctic ice sheets (WA and EA) is essentially unchanged from revised results for 1992 to 2001 from ERS radar altimetry. Imbalances in individual drainage systems (DS) are large (-68% to +103% of input), as are temporal changes (-39% to +44%). The recent 90 Gt/yr loss from three DS (Pine Island, Thwaites-Smith, and Marie-Bryd Coast) of WA exceeds the earlier 61 Gt/yr loss, consistent with reports of accelerating ice flow and dynamic thinning. Similarly, the recent 24 Gt/yr loss from three DS in the Antarctic Peninsula (AP) is consistent with glacier accelerations following breakup of the Larsen B and other ice shelves. In contrast, net increases in the five other DS of WA and AP and three of the 16 DS in East Antarctica (EA) exceed the increased losses. Alternate interpretations of the mass changes driven by accumulation variations are given using results from atmospheric-model re-analysis and a parameterization based on 5% change in accumulation per degree of observed surface temperature change. A slow increase in snowfall with climate waRMing, consistent with model predictions, may be offsetting increased dynamic losses.

Zwally, H. Jay↗