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At least 343 records · Page 19

Impact of duration and missing data on the long-term photovoltaic degradation rate estimation

Accurate quantification of photovoltaic (PV) system degradation rate (R D ) is essential for lifetime yield predictions. Although R D is a critical parameter, its estimation lacks a standardized methodology that can be applied on outdoor field data. The purpose of this paper is to investigate the impact of time period duration and missing data on R D by analyzing the performance of different techniques applied to synthetic PV system data at different linear R D patterns and known noise conditions. The analysis includes the application of different techniques to a 10-year synthetic dataset of a crystalline Silicon PV system, with emulated degradation levels and imputed missing data. Here, the analysis demonstrated that the accuracy of ordinary least squares (OLS), year-on-year (YOY), autoregressive integrated moving average (ARIMA) and robust principal component analysis (RPCA) techniques is affected by the evaluation duration with all techniques converging to lower R D deviations over the 10-year evaluation, apart from RPCA at high degradation levels. Moreover, the estimated R D is strongly affected by the amount of missing data. Filtering out the corrupted data yielded more accurate R D results for all techniques. It is proven that the application of a change-point detection stage is necessary and guidelines for accurate R D estimation are provided.

14 SOLAR ENERGY↗

Morphostatistical characterization of the spatial galaxy distribution through Gibbs point processes

ABSTRACT This paper proposes a morphostatistical characterization of the galaxy distribution through spatial statistical modelling based on inhomogeneous Gibbs point processes. The galaxy distribution is supposed to exhibit two components. The first one is related to the major geometrical features exhibited by the observed galaxy field, here, its corresponding filamentary pattern. The second one is related to the interactions exhibited by the galaxies. Gibbs point processes are statistical models able to integrate these two aspects in a probability density, controlled by some parameters. Several such models are fitted to real observational data via the ABC shadow algorithm. This algorithm provides simultaneous parameter estimation and posterior-based inference, hence allowing the derivation of the statistical significance of the obtained results.

79 ASTRONOMY AND ASTROPHYSICS↗

Vehicle antenna for the mobile satellite experiment

A low profile, low cost, printed circuit, electronically steered, right hand circularly polarized phase array antenna system has been developed for the Mobile Satellite Experiment (MSAT-X) Program. The success of this antenna is based upon the development of a crossed-slot element array and detailed trade-off analyses for both the phased array and pointing system design. The optimized system provides higher gain at low elevation angles (20 degrees above the horizon) and broader frequency coverage (approximately 8 1/2 percent bandwidth) than is possible with a patch array. Detailed analysis showed that optimum performance could be achieved with a 19 element array of a triangular lattice geometry of 3.9 inch element spacing. This configuration has the effect of minimizing grating lobes at large scan angles plus it improves the intersatellite isolation. The array has an aperture 20 inches in diameter and is 0.75 inch thick overall, exclusive of the RF and power connector. The pointing system employs a hybrid approach that operates with both an external rate sensor and an internal error signal as a means of fine tuning the beam acquisition and track. Steering the beam is done electronically via 18, 3-bit diode phase shifters. A nineteenth phase shifter is not required as the center element serves as a reference only. Measured patterns and gain show that the array meets the stipulated performance specifications everywhere except at some low elevation angles.

Peng, Sheng Y.↗

What Caused the August 2002 Catastrophic Floods in Central Europe?

The catastrophic August 2002 floods in central Europe followed very intense rains over a span of several days, reported over a large region. On Aug. 12 meteorological stations over an elongated swath, from the vicinity of Saltzburg (Austria) in the south to the vicinity of Berlin in the north, reported precipitation exceeding 100 mm/day. Synoptic analysis points to a jet streak in the mid-Atlantic. moving eastward, which reached Spain on about 9th of August. An understanding of the mechanism that ultimately produced the unprecedented rains was derived conveniently from the GEOS 3 Model developed at NASA Goddard Space Flight Center. Examining the scenarios of omega, we observe on Aug. 10, OOZ, a center of ascending vertical motions, stronger than 0.6 Pa/s at the 700 hPa level over the western Mediterranean. Advecting moist and warm air to higher levels from the near-ocean level, the center moved eastward, reaching the northern Adriatic on Aug. 11, OOZ, then continuing northeast to the regions where most intense precipitation was reported on Aug. 12. The omega at 850 hPa shows a closely similar pattern but especially interesting is the 850 omega pattern on Aug. 12, 12Z, which shows descending motions stronger than 0.4 Pa/s over the eastern Po Valley (northern Italy), and an elongated region of ascending motions stronger than 1.0 Pa/s coinciding in extent with the extreme-precipitation region on that day. At that time, the cyclone which formed over the Po Valley, was centered on eastern Czech Republic, producing on its western side these strong ascending motions over the precipitation region. The pattern of the surface-pressure lows provides further insight into the processes, and specifically, the Aug. 12,06Z map, shows a 996 mb low over the western Czech Republic. The flooding following the extreme rains was acerbated by the fact that river-channels were made narrower over the recent decades by the urbanization of river banks.

Otterman, J.↗

Machine learning for a Toolkit for Image Mining

A prototype user environment is described that enables a user with very limited computer skills to collaborate with a computer algorithm to develop search tools (agents) that can be used for image analysis, creating metadata for tagging images, searching for images in an image database on the basis of image content, or as a component of computer vision algorithms. Agents are learned in an ongoing, two-way dialogue between the user and the algorithm. The user points to mistakes made in classification. The algorithm, in response, attempts to discover which image attributes are discriminating between objects of interest and clutter. It then builds a candidate agent and applies it to an input image, producing an 'interest' image highlighting features that are consistent with the set of objects and clutter indicated by the user. The dialogue repeats until the user is satisfied. The prototype environment, called the Toolkit for Image Mining (TIM) is currently capable of learning spectral and textural patterns. Learning exhibits rapid convergence to reasonable levels of performance and, when thoroughly trained, Fo appears to be competitive in discrimination accuracy with other classification techniques.

Delanoy, Richard L.↗

Test Report: Low-Cost Access to TDRS Using TOPEX to Emulate Small Satellite Performance

This report lists the objectives and conclusions of a series of experimental contacts between the TOPEX and the TDRS satellites. These experiments are designed to verify the theoretical prediction that a spin-stabilized satellite with a broad-beam, zenith-pointing antenna can have regular, significant contacts with the TDRS and use those contacts for data services. This series of experiments is a joint project between the experimenters at New Mexico State University (NMSU), the National Aeronautics and Space Administration (NASA) Goddard Space Flight Center (GSFC), and the Jet Propulsion Laboratory (JPL). In these experiments, we show that: (1) The satellite contacts during the experiment begin and end as predicted prior to the experiment; (2) The data contact is held for the desired contact duration; (3) The data quality through the contact is high and similar to that required by actual project needs; and (4) The receiving hardware at the White Sands Complex (WSC) is able to track the signals better than expected by analysis of the antenna pattern effects alone predict. We believe that these experiments successfully demonstrate the basic concept and its validity with actual spacecraft systems.

Horan, Stephen↗

Geoscience Laser Altimeter System (GLAS) for the ICESat Mission

The Geoscience Laser Altimeter System (GLAS) is a new generation lidar and is the primary science payload for NASA's ICESat Mission. The GLAS design combines a 10 cm precision surface lidar with a sensitive dual wavelength cloud and aerosol lidar. GLAS will precisely measure the heights of the Earth's polar ice sheets, establish a grid of accurate height profiles of the Earth's land topography, and profile the vertical distribution of clouds and aerosols on a global scale. GLAS will be integrated onto a small spacecraft built by Ball Aerospace, and will be launched into a polar orbit with a 590-630 km altitude at an inclination of 94 degrees. ICESat is is currently planned to launch in winter 2002/03 and GLAS is designed to operate continuously in space for a minimum of 3 years. GLAS will measure the vertical distance from orbit to the Earth's surface with pulses from a ND:YAG laser at a 40 Hz rate. Each 6 nsec wide 1064 nm laser pulse is used to produce a single range measurement. On the surface, the laser footprints have 66 m diameter and approx. 170 m center-center spacings. The GLAS receiver uses a I m diameter telescope to detect laser backscatter and a Si APD to detect the 1064 nm signals. The detector's output is sampled by a digital ranging receiver, which records each transmitted pulse and surface echo waveform with 1 nsec (15 cm) resolution. Each echo pulse is digitized and is reported to ground with a record length of from 200 to 544 samples, depending on the spacecraft's location . The GLAS location and epoch times are measured by a precision GPS receiver carried on the ICESat spacecraft. Initial processing of the echo waveforms within GLAS permits discrimination between cloud and surface echoes for selecting appropriate waveform samples. This selection is guided by an on-board DEM which is used to set the boundaries for the echo pulse search algorithm. Subsequent ground-based echo pulse analysis, along with GPS-based clock frequency estimates, permit final determination of the range to the surface, degree of pulse spreading, and vertical distribution of any vegetation illuminated by the laser. Accurate knowledge of the laser beam's pointing angle is needed to prevent height biases when measuring over tilted surfaces, such as near the boundaries of ice sheets. For surfaces with 2 deg. slopes, knowledge of pointing angle of the beam's centroid angle to better than 10 urad is needed. GLAS uses a stellar reference system (SRS) to measure the pointing angle of each laser firing relative to inertial space. The SRS uses a high precision star camera oriented toward local zenith and a gyroscope to determine the inertial orientation of the SRS optical bench. The far field pattern of each laser is measured pulse relative to the star camera with a laser reference system (LRS). GLAS will also measure the vertical distributions of clouds and aerosols by recording the vertical profiles of laser pulse backscatter at both 1064 and 532 nm. The 1064 rim measurements use the Si APD detector and will be used to measure the height and echo pulse shape from thicker clouds. The lidar receiver at 532 nm uses a narrow bandwidth etalon filter and highly sensitive photon counting detectors. The 532 nm backscatter profiles will be used to measure the vertical extent of thinner clouds and the atmospheric boundary layer. The GLAS instrument component development is complete and the instrument is undergoing final testing and qualification at NASA-Goddard. The GLAS "as-built" characteristics and its expected measurement performance will be discussed.

Abshire, James B.↗

The stability of thick, self-gravitating disks in protostellar systems

Using numerical hydrodynamics techniques, we perform a nonlinear stability analysis of accretion disk systems that contain thick, self-gravitating disks. The systems are initially represented by a point mass M(sub c) at the center and a geometrically thick, axisymmetric disk of mass M(sub d) that supports uniform specific angular momentum and obeys an n = 3/2, polytropic equation of state. The equilibrium disk structure is uniquely defined upon the specification of two key dimensionless system parameters: M(sub d)/M(sub c) and T/absolute value of W (the ratio of rotational kinetic energy if the disk to the gravitational potential energy of the system). The focus of this work is on the identification of systems within this two-dimensional parameter space that are marginally unstable toward the development of nonaxisymmetric distortions. The geometric form and relative pattern speed of the disk's distortion as well as the likelihood of disk fragmentation as a result of such instabilities is examined, particularly in the context of protostellar systems. The value of T/absolute value of W at which thick disks first become dynamically unstable to nonaxisymmetric distortions is found to vary significantly with the mass ratio of the accertion disk system. Nonaxisymmetric eigenmodes with four distinctly different characters are identified in systems with mass ratios in the range 0.2 less than or equal to (M(sub d)/M(sub c)) less than or equal to 5.

Woodward, John W.↗

Stability and Heat Transfer Characteristics of Condensing Films

The overall objective of this research is to investigate the fundamental physics of film condensation in reduced gravity. The condensation of vapor on a cool surface is important in many engineering problems,including spacecraft thermal control and also the behavior of condensate films that may form on the interior surfaces of spacecraft. To examine the effects of body force on condensing films, two different geometries have been tested in the laboratory: (1) a stabilizing gravitational body force (+1g, or condensing surface facing 'upwards') and (2) de-stabilizing gravitational body force (-1g, or 'downwards'). For each geometry, different fluid configurations are employed to help isolate the fluid mechanical and thermal mechanisms operative in condensing films. The fluid configurations are (a) a condensing film, and (b) a non-condensing film with film growth by mass addition by through the plate surface. Condensation experiments are conducted in a test cell containing a cooled copper or brass plate with an exposed diameter of 12.7 cm. The metal surface is polished to allow for double-pass shadowgraph imaging, and the test surface is instrumented with imbedded heat transfer gauges and thermocouples. Representative shadowgraph images of a condensing, unstable (-1g) n-pentane film are shown. The interfacial disturbances associated with the de-stabilizing body force leading to droplet formation and break-off can be clearly seen. The heat transfer coefficient associated with the condensing film is shown. The heat transfer coefficient is seen to initially decrease, consistent with the increased thermal resistance due to layer growth. For sufficiently long time, a steady value of heat transfer is observed, accompanied by continuous droplet formation and break-off. The non-condensing cell consists of a stack of thin stainless steel disks 10 cm in diameter mounted in a brass enclosure. The disks are perforated with a regular pattern of 361 holes each 0.25 mm in diameter. Non-condensing experiments in -1g have employed 50 cSt and 125 cSt silicone oil pumped through the perforated disks at a specified rate by a syringe micropump. The time to droplet break-off and the disturbance wavelengths appear to decrease with increasing pumping rate. The ability to reliably perform multi-point, ultrasonic measurements of the film thickness has been demonstrated. A linear array of eight transducers of 6 mm diameter (with a beam footprint of comparable size) are pulsed with a square-wave signal at a frequency of 5 MHz and a pulse duration of approximately 0.3 s. For thin films (60 m to 2-3 mm in thickness) the layer thickness is determined by frequency analysis, where the received ultrasound pulse is Fourier transformed and the spacing between the peaks in the frequency spectrum is analyzed. For thicker layers (up to at least 1 cm in thickness), time-domain analysis is performed of the received ultrasound pulses to generate directly the layer thickness. A time-trace of the film thickness at a point using a single transducer in the linear array is shown for the case of an unstable (-1g) n-pentane film. The oscillations in film thickness are evidently due to the passage and/or shedding of droplets from the cooled plate surface. The entire transducer array was used to measure the changes in film thickness resulting from the passage of gravity waves generated either by an oscillating wall or the impact of a single droplet on the free surface of a film. The enclosure in both cases was 14 cm square and the transducer spacing was 12 mm. Best results were obtained using as test fluid a mixture of 50% glycerol and 50% water with a fluid layer thickness of 3-5 mm. In both cases the measured wavelengths and wave propagation speeds using the ultrasound technique compared reasonably well with those observed by optical imaging. Additional information can be found in the original extended abstract.

Hermanson, J. C.↗

"Smart" Magnetic Fluids Experiment Operated on the International Space Station

InSPACE is a microgravity fluid physics experiment that was operated on the International Space Station (ISS) in the Microgravity Science Glovebox from late March 2003 through early July 2003. (InSPACE is an acronym for Investigating the Structure of Paramagnetic Aggregates From Colloidal Emulsions.) The purpose of the experiment is to obtain fundamental data of the complex properties of an exciting class of smart materials termed magnetorheological (MR) fluids. MR fluids are suspensions, or colloids, comprised of small (micrometer-sized) superparamagnetic particles in a nonmagnetic medium. Colloids are suspensions of very small particles suspended in a liquid. (Examples of other colloids are blood, milk, and paint.) These controllable fluids can quickly transition into a nearly solid state when exposed to a magnetic field and return to their original liquid state when the magnetic field is removed. Controlling the strength of the magnetic field can control the relative stiffness of these fluids. MR fluids can be used to improve or develop new seat suspensions, robotics, clutches, airplane landing gear, and vibration damping systems. The principal investigator for InSPACE is Professor Alice P. Gast of the Massachusetts Institute of Technology (MIT). The InSPACE hardware was developed at the NASA Glenn Research Center. The InSPACE samples were delivered to the ISS in November 2002, on the Space Shuttle Endeavour, on Space Station Utilization Flight UF-2/STS113. Operations began on March 31, 2003, with the processing of three different particle size samples at multiple test parameters. This investigation focused on determining the structural organization of MR colloidal aggregates when exposed to a pulsing magnetic field. On Earth, the aggregates take the shape of footballs with spiky tips. This characteristic shape may be influenced by the pull of gravity, which causes most particles initially suspended in the fluid to sediment, (i.e., settle and collect at the bottom of the cell). In the absence of sedimentation effects on the ISS, the behavior and shape of these MR aggregate structures are dominated exclusively by magnetic and surface tension forces. The microscopic detail of these structures was imaged under two orthogonal camera views. The video was downlinked to the InSPACE team at Glenn's Telescience Support Center and to MIT and also recorded onboard the ISS on videotapes that will be brought back to the ground by the space shuttles. The study examined the effect on the structure formation by varying the magnetic field strength and pulse frequency, and particle size. Fundamental data that characterized the structure formation were obtained. InSPACE completed its last planned test run on July 2, 2003. Operations occurred on 21 days over approximately a 3-month period. Forty-one test points were completed during 26 test runs. During the initial testing, the procedures followed by the crew were modified to maximize the observation of some unexpected and interesting aggregate behavior. As a result Dr. Gast has reported on the formation of aggregate shapes that are more extended and diverse than those observed on the ground. Sheets of magnetic material folded over in a labyrinth pattern and large columnar aggregates with complex interfaces with the surrounding fluid are examples of the interesting structures that have been observed on the ISS. In light of these early findings, the understanding of the fundamental properties of MR fluids on the basis of ground-based observations may need to be reconsidered.The experiments on the ISS have provided a vast amount of video data for analysis. While this analysis is ongoing, plans are being made for additional experimental runs. For this purpose, additional hardware and cells containing samples of different magnetic particles and sizes are being fabricated for a future launch to the ISS. The InSPACE hardware will remain on orbit until this testing is completed.

Agui, Juan H.↗

Biological Research and Space Health Enabled by Machine Learning to Support Deep Space Missions

A key science goal of the NASA “Moon to Mars” campaign is to understand how biology responds to the Lunar, Martian, and deep space environments in order to advance fundamental knowledge, reduce risk, and support safe, productive human space missions. Through the powerful emerging approaches of artificial intelligence (AI) and machine learning (ML), a paradigm shift has begun in biomedical science and engineered astronaut health systems, to enable Earth independence and autonomy of mission operations. Here we present an overview of AI/ML architecture to support deep space mission goals, developed with leaders in the field. First, we focus on the fundamental biological research that supports our understanding of physiological responses to spaceflight, and we describe current efforts to support AI/ML research including data standardization and data engineering through maximally open and FAIR (findable, accessible, interoperable, reusable) databases and the generation of AI-ready datasets for reuse and analysis. We also discuss remote data management frameworks for research data as well as environmental and health data that are generated during deep space missions. We highlight several research projects that leverage data standardization and management for fundamental biological discovery to uncover the complex effects of space travel on living systems. Next, we provide an overview of cutting-edge AI/ML approaches that can be integrated to support remote monitoring and analysis during deep space missions, including generative models and large language models to learn the underlying biomedical patterns and predict outcomes or answer questions during off world medical scenarios. We also describe current AI/ML methods to support this research and monitoring through automated cloud-based labs which enable limited human intervention and closed-loop experimentation in remote settings. These labs could support mission autonomy by analyzing environmental data streams, and would be facilitated through in situ analytics capabilities to avoid sending large raw data files through low bandwidth communications. Finally, in the context of deep space missions with limited communications or access to medical advice from Earth, we describe a solution for integrated, real-time mission biomonitoring across hierarchical levels from continuous environmental monitoring, to wearables and point-of-care devices, to molecular and physiological monitoring. We introduce a precision space health system that will ensure that the future of space health is predictive, preventative, participatory and personalized.

artificial intelligence↗

Directional Variations in Tidal Flow Multifractality and Intermittency

We explored distinct directional variations of multifractal and intermittent characteristics of ebb and flood flow velocities at nodule point, WA, tidal energy site, and complementary inspection on the East River, NY using scaling exponents of the structure function, distribution flatness, detrending moving average (DMA) analysis, multifractal detrended fluctuation analysis (MF-DFA), and high-order spectral moments. Our findings reveal that tidal flow presents higher long-range dependence (LRD) and intermittent levels for the ebb flow sections, whereas the flood flow sections exhibit a higher degree of multifractality and greater sensitivity to larger magnitude of turbulent fluctuations. We demonstrate that long-range dependence predominantly contributes to multifractal behavior in both ebb and flood flows, as evidenced by the significantly reduced multifractal spectrum width for temporally randomly permuted time series. Moreover, spectral kurtosis analysis uncovers a higher intermittent level across all frequency scales for ebb flow sections and reveals a distinct pattern of tidal flow intermittency differing from the monotonically increasing intermittent level observed in wall-bounded and grid turbulence. Finally, we demonstrate that DMA, MF-DFA, and high-order spectral moments provide more comprehensive insights than structure function scaling exponents and PDF flatness methods.

Cheng, Shyuan [Univ. of Illinois at Urbana-Champai↗

Dynamical interpretation of conditional patterns

While great progress is being made in characterizing the 3-D structure of organized turbulent motions using conditional averaging analysis, there is a lack of theoretical guidance regarding the interpretation and utilization of such information. Questions concerning the significance of the structures, their contributions to various transport properties, and their dynamics cannot be answered without recourse to appropriate dynamical governing equations. One approach which addresses some of these questions uses the conditional fields as initial conditions and calculates their evolution from the Navier-Stokes equations, yielding valuable information about stability, growth, and longevity of the mean structure. To interpret statistical aspects of the structures, a different type of theory which deals with the structures in the context of their contributions to the statistics of the flow is needed. As a first step toward this end, an effort was made to integrate the structural information from the study of organized structures with a suitable statistical theory. This is done by stochastically estimating the two-point conditional averages that appear in the equation for the one-point probability density function, and relating the structures to the conditional stresses. Salient features of the estimates are identified, and the structure of the one-point estimates in channel flow is defined.

Adrian, R. J.↗

Modeling Climate-Biosphere Interactions in the Boreal Forest

The overall goal of this BOREAS Program was to develop, test, and apply a model of the carbon balance of boreal forest sites with a significant groundcover component (moss or lichen). The basic question addressed with this model was: What is the sensitivity of the boreal forest carbon balance to weather variability? More specifically: What are the differences in the sensitivities of carbon gains (photosynthesis) and carbon losses (respiration) of the various components of the ecosystem? Are there different seasonalities to their sensitivities (e.g., warmer springs will have one effect, warmer summers a different effect)? What are the effects of different patterns of successive weather years (wet/dry, warm/cool)? What, for example, would be the difference in effects of two "warmer than normal" months-one with each day warmer than normal, and the other with three normal weeks and one very hot week? Due to weather variability, how "noisy" will any carbon flux or carbon pool signal be that we might use to try to detect change? The project resulted in the development of a new boreal forest ecosystem model. This model was the first model in the BOREAS project to look closely at the role of mosses in the ecosystem carbon balance, and also was the first model in the BOREAS project to look closely at interannual variability in carbon fluxes. Along with the work of many other groups, TE-19 modeling analysis pointed to the need for a second, longer field season in 1996, with particular focus on the spring and fall transitions and on ground vegetation. BOREAS groups TE-19 (Frolking), TGB-1 (Crill) & TGB-3 (Moore & Roulet) analyzed BOREAS data and other published and unpublished data to develop a relationship between peatland ecosystem productivity and incoming radiation, which is quite distinct from the upland ecosystem relationships observed in other studies.

Frolking, Steve↗

Pluto's Global Surface Composition Through Pixel-by-Pixel Hapke Modeling of New Horizons Ralph LEISA Data

On July 14th 2015, NASA's New Horizons mission gave us an unprecedented detailed view of the Pluto system. The complex compositional diversity of Pluto's encounter hemisphere was revealed by the Ralph/LEISA infrared spectrometer on board of New Horizons. We present compositional maps of Pluto defining the spatial distribution of the abundance and textural properties of the volatiles methane and nitrogen ices and non-volatiles water ice and tholin. These results are obtained by applying a pixel-by-pixel Hapke radiative transfer model to the LEISA scans. Our analysis focuses mainly on the large scale latitudinal variations of methane and nitrogen ices and aims at setting observational constraints to volatile transport models. Specifically, we find three latitudinal bands: the first, enriched in methane, extends from the pole to 55degN, the second dominated by nitrogen, continues south to 35 degN, and the third, com- posed again mainly of methane, reaches 20 degN. We demonstrate that the distribution of volatiles across these surface units can be explained by differences in insolation over the past few decades. The latitudinal pattern is broken by Sputnik Planitia, a large reservoir of volatiles, with nitrogen playing the most important role. The physical properties of methane and nitrogen in this region are suggestive of the presence of a cold trap or possible volatile stratification. Furthermore our modeling results point to a possible sublimation transport of nitrogen from the northwest edge of Sputnik Planitia toward the south.

Protopapa, S.↗

Expected occurrence of wildlife in US Atlantic offshore wind areas

Offshore wind energy has entered a pivotal phase of development for the U.S. Atlantic Outer Continental Shelf (OCS), a region that supports critical habitats, migratory corridors and flyways for many marine species. Assessing where and when marine wildlife occurs is a crucial first step in developing a risk assessment framework to evaluate potential risks and impacts of offshore wind development. In this study, we perform this initial assessment by evaluating the expected occurrence of marine mammal, seabird and sea turtle taxa in areas of interest to identify patterns and potential areas of concern. Specifically, this work depicts the expected monthly density of 84 marine species and taxa within each of the 29 active wind energy lease areas plus a 10 km buffer to account for nearby activity. We then compare these densities to subregional thresholds, evaluated as the 90th percentile of the subregion’s monthly density, to provide comparisons across the shelf region. This analysis synthesizes the most recent spatial distribution models of 31 marine mammal taxa (26 species and 5 guilds), 49 seabird species and 4 sea turtle species to provide a unified evaluation of the major marine wildlife in the region. Out of the 84 species and taxa analyzed, 56 exhibit levels of expected density in wind energy areas that exceed the corresponding 90th percentile subregional threshold at some point throughout the year. These results represent an initial assessment in the broader Occurrence, Exposure, Response, and Consequence (OERC) framework, originally developed by the U.S. Navy for marine species risk assessments. These results offer valuable guidance to marine spatial planners, management agencies and offshore wind developers on the expected locations and timing of interaction risk to wildlife species in or near wind energy areas across the region.

17 WIND ENERGY↗

The IUE Mega Campaign. Modulated Structure in the Wind of HD 64760 (B0.5 Ib)

We highlight systematic variability in the stellar wind of the early B type supergiant, HD 64760, whose UV line profiles were monitored for almost 16 days in 1995 January as part of the IUE 'MEGA Campaign.' The extensive coverage reveals a pattern of rapidly evolving discrete optical depth changes which typically migrate from approx. - 200 km/s to approx. -1500 km/s in less than 12 hr. These features coexist with more slowly evolving structures lasting several days. Time-series analysis of the Si(IV), Si(III), and N(V) profile variations presents a clear 1.2 day periodicity, which is a quarter of the estimated maximum rotation period of HD 64760. The line profile changes are consistent with an interpretation in terms of a set of corotating wind features which occult the stellar disk at least 3 times during the observing run. These data are combined with UV observations collected in 1993 March to argue in favor of rotationally modulated wind variations in HD 64760. The basic result of very regular, large-scale optical depth variations points to a 'clock' whose origin is on the stellar surface, rather than a mechanism that is entirely intrinsic to the stellar wind.

Prinja, Raman K.↗

Atmospheric temperatures near the tropical tropopause Temporal variations, zonal asymmetry and implications for stratospheric water vapor

Analysis of temperature measurements obtained over an eight-year period in the vicinity of the low-latitude tropopause confirms the existence of longitude regions which are consistently colder by approximately 2-3 K than elsewhere in the tropics. These temperature differences, however, are confined to a layer of thickness 3-5 km centered on the tropopause. The lowest monthly mean temperatures observed at the colder stations yield saturation mixing ratios that are consistent with the range of measured stratospheric water vapor. Examination of the daily variations in temperature at a given station reveals a more complex pattern than indicated by the monthly averages. On many days temperatures at the colder longitudes correspond to water vapor abundances that are less than observed in the stratosphere despite the favorable comparison of the monthly means. The results point to the need for a series of water vapor soundings at selected longitudes and times in order to define the extent to which the tropical tropopause controls the stratospheric water vapor abundance.

Frederick, J. E.↗