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Search indexed NASA NTRS and DOE OSTI research on propulsion, heat transfer, battery materials and energy systems. Follow report and document links to the original sources.

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At least 343 records · Page 19
All sourcesNASA NTRSDOE OSTI
DOE OSTI2020

Organic-Inorganic Reaction of Li-Containing thin film: Structure of Lithium Propane Dioxide via MLD

In combining organometallic with organic precursors, molecular layer deposition (MLD) offers not only an expanded portfolio of molecular combinations but specifically the possibility of tuning mechanical properties for more robust functionality. This is appealing for applications in energy storage, where ion transport in and out of electrodes causes significant stress/strain cycling. It is particularly opportune for Li-ion solid state batteries (LISSBs), where electrode and solid electrolyte structures are usually arranged densely for high power and energy. Despite diverse MLD applications to date, little prior research has been aimed at Li-containing MLD materials and processes. Here, we report the MLD growth and process for a lithium-containing organic thin film using lithium tert-butoxide (LiO t Bu) and 1,3-propanediol, leading to an MLD film of lithium propane dioxide, Li 2 O 2 C 3 H 6 (LPDO), identified through X-ray photoelectron spectroscopy (XPS) and ab initio calculations. The growth showed self-limiting behavior for both precursors, with significant nucleation delay before linear growth at 0.23 Å/cycle at 150 °C, and 0.15 Å/cycle at 200 °C. XPS-determined stoichiometry was Li 1.6 O 2.2 C 3 H 6 at both 150 and 200 °C, while additional species, presumably from incomplete reaction, were found at 100 °C, leading to a notably higher (0.84 Å/cycle) growth rate. The LPDO film showed crystallinity and high surface roughness when grown on the crystalline substrate, while on the amorphous substrate, an amorphous LPDO film with low surface roughness was observed. In addition, high air sensitivity of LPDO film was observed, with Li propyl carbonate and Li carbonate formation under air exposure. Further modification strategies were proposed in order to achieve a MLD or atomic layer deposition-/MLD-based solid electrolyte material.

25 ENERGY STORAGE↗
DOE OSTI2023

Above-Room-Temperature Ferromagnetism in Thin van der Waals Flakes of Cobalt-Substituted Fe 5 GeTe 2

Two-dimensional (2D) magnetic van der Waals materials provide a powerful platform for studying the fundamental physics of low-dimensional magnetism, engineering novel magnetic phases, and enabling thin and highly tunable spintronic devices. To realize high-quality and practical devices for such applications, there is a critical need for robust 2D magnets with ordering temperatures above room temperature that can be created via exfoliation. Here, in this paper, the study of exfoliated flakes of cobalt-substituted Fe 5 GeTe 2 (CFGT) exhibiting magnetism above room temperature is reported. Via quantum magnetic imaging with nitrogen-vacancy centers in diamond, ferromagnetism at room temperature was observed in CFGT flakes as thin as 16 nm corresponding to 16 layers. This result expands the portfolio of thin room-temperature 2D magnet flakes exfoliated from robust single crystals that reach a thickness regime relevant to practical spintronic applications. The Curie temperature T c of CFGT ranges from 310 K in the thinnest flake studied to 328 K in the bulk. To investigate the prospect of high-temperature monolayer ferromagnetism, Monte Carlo calculations were performed, which predicted a high value of T c of ~270 K in CFGT monolayers. Pathways toward further enhancing monolayer T c are discussed. These results support CFGT as a promising platform for realizing high-quality room-temperature 2D magnet devices.

2D magnetism↗
DOE OSTI2022

Mechanically and Thermally Enhanced 3D-Printed Photocurable Polymer Nanocomposites Containing Functionalized Chitin Nanowhiskers by Stereolithography

Additive manufacturing, or simply 3D printing (3DP), where objects are built through layer-wise material deposition, has gained significant academic and industrial attention as a result of the development of advanced and functional materials requiring rapid, customized, and flexible solutions. In the context of green manufacturing, diversifying environmentally and economically sustainable material portfolios is an essential endeavor for the success of 3DP technology that uses widely available, highly valuable, and renewable materials. Here, we used stereolithography (SLA) for processing methacrylate-based photocurable resins containing crab shell-derived chitin nanowhiskers (CNWs), which are surface-functionalized by reactive acrylate groups. Results from full spectral, thermal, structural, and topological analyses corroborate not only the surface functionalization of CNWs but also indicate the presence of these photocurable CNW (pCNW) fillers in the 3D-printed nanocomposites. Owing to the strong interfacial bond induced by the physical and chemical crosslinking between the pCNW and methacrylate (MA) polymer matrix, the internally formulated nanocomposites displayed enhanced thermomechanical properties (e.g., storage modulus and glass transition temperature) compared to those of commercially available pure SLA resins. For instance, the inclusion of 0.5 wt % pCNW improved the tensile strength and stiffness to up to 78 and 71%, respectively, without compromising the toughness and ductility of the printed material. Accordingly, this result also evidences the compatibility between the filler and resin materials. Consequently, the formation of a crosslinked network in the nanocomposite structure results in a higher thermal stability and activation energy (i.e., up to ~79%) for all the hybrid materials than the pristine MA. Finally, the high-resolution SLA print features, dimensional accuracy, and enhanced mechanical performance of our microstructure-forming functionalized chitin-based nanocomposites make them promising materials for a wide range of robust and high-performance industrial applications.

36 MATERIALS SCIENCE↗
DOE OSTI2020

Successes and Opportunities for Discovery of Metal Oxide Photoanodes for Solar Fuels Generators

We report that the importance of metal oxide photoanodes in solar fuels technology has garnered concerted efforts in photoanode discovery in recent decades, which complement parallel efforts in development of analytical techniques and optimization strategies using standard photoanodes such as TiO 2 , Fe 2 O 3 and BiVO 4 . Theoretical guidance of high-throughput experiments has been particularly effective in dramatically increasing the portfolio of metal oxide photoanodes, motivating a new era of photoanode development where the characterization and optimization techniques developed on traditional materials are applied to nascent photoanodes that exhibit visible light photoresponse. The compendium of metal oxide photoanodes presented in the present work can also serve as the basis for further technique development, with a primary goal to establish workflows for discovery of materials that perform better against the critical criteria of operational stability, visible light photoresponse, and photovoltage suitable for tandem absorber architectures.

14 SOLAR ENERGY↗
DOE OSTI2020

Challenges in Lithium Metal Anodes for Solid-State Batteries

In this Perspective, we highlight recent progress and challenges related to the integration of lithium metal anodes in solid-state batteries. While prior reports have suggested that solid electrolytes may be impermeable to lithium metal, this hypothesis has been disproven under a variety of electrolyte compositions and cycling conditions. Herein, we describe the mechanistic origins and importance of lithium filament growth and interphase formation in inorganic and organic solid electrolytes. Multimodal techniques that combine real and reciprocal space imaging and modeling will be necessary to fully understand nonequilibrium dynamics at these buried interfaces. Currently, most studies on lithium electrode kinetics at solid electrolyte interfaces are completed in symmetric Li–Li configurations. To fully understand the challenges and opportunities afforded by Li-metal anodes, full-cell experiments are necessary. Lastly, the impacts of operating conditions on solid-state batteries are largely unknown with respect to pressure, geometry, and break-in protocols. Given the rapid growth of this community and the diverse portfolio of solid electrolytes, we highlight the need for detailed reporting of experimental conditions and standardization of protocols across the community.

25 ENERGY STORAGE↗
DOE OSTI2021

Pipe Parity Analysis of Seawater Desalination in the United States: Exploring Costs, Energy, and Reliability via Case Studies and Scenarios of Emerging Technology

As climate change-induced variables exacerbate water scarcities, the use of seawater reverse osmosis (SWRO) membrane desalination technology for treating seawater could potentially provide a long-term drought-proof source of drinking water. This study carried out a technoeconomic assessment (TEA) for three SWRO desalination plants in the U.S. and one in Israel to set baselines for the cost and energy consumption for seawater desalination. In addition, a breakeven curve for implementing SWRO desalination was estimated in relation to the cost of water conservation measures to meet drought-induced reduction of the traditional water supply. The results show that the cost of SWRO water production scales with the plant capacity while energy intensity is not dramatically different across the plants. The higher cost in some U.S. plants is due to high capital investment, including land acquisition and permitting. Variations in plant capacity utilization have the greatest impact on the levelized cost of water (LCOW) over the plant service life, suggesting the importance of reducing fouling and maintenance-related downtime. Scenario analysis of fixed labor cost reduction through process automation indicates investments in automation and sensing technology could result in long-term savings. Breakeven analysis shows the decision to adopt SWRO is highly dependent on the local cost associated with water conservation to meet water supply reduction. Moreover, a small reduction in SWRO cost can influence a shift toward the adoption of SWRO over water conservation measures. Incorporation of future water demand, water conservation potential, and water stress data around the nation indicates SWRO desalination could be an important contributor to the future municipal drinking water portfolio in the U.S.

29 ENERGY PLANNING, POLICY, AND ECONOMY↗
DOE OSTI2021

Climate-Driven Limits to Future Carbon Storage in California's Wildland Ecosystems

Enhanced ecosystem carbon storage is a key component of many climate mitigation pathways. The State of California has set an ambitious goal of carbon neutrality by 2045, relying in part on enhanced carbon sequestration in natural and working lands. We used statistical modeling, including random forest and climate analog approaches, to explore the climate-driven challenges and uncertainties associated with the goal of long-term carbon sequestration in forests and shrublands. We found that seasonal patterns of temperature and precipitation are strong controllers of the spatial distribution of aboveground live carbon. RCP8.5 projections of temperature and precipitation are estimated to drive decreases of 16.1% ± 7.5% in aboveground live carbon by the end of the century, with coastal areas of central and northern California and low/mid-elevation mountain areas being most vulnerable. With RCP4.5 projections, declines are less severe, with 8.8% ± 5.3% carbon loss. In either scenario, increases in temperature systematically cause biomass declines, and the spread of projected precipitation across 32 CMIP5 models contributes to substantial uncertainty in the magnitude of that decline. Projected changes in the environmental niche for the 20 most biomass-dominant tree species revealed widespread replacement of conifers by oak species in low elevation regions of central and northern California, with a corresponding decline in carbon storage depending on expected migration rates. The spatial patterns of vulnerability we identify may allow policymakers to assess where carbon sequestration in aboveground biomass is an appropriate part of a climate mitigation portfolio, and where future climate-driven carbon losses may be a liability.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2023

National‐Scale Assessment of Total Gaseous Mercury Isotopes Across the United States

Abstract With the 2011 promulgation of the Mercury and Air Toxics Standards by the U.S. Environmental Protection Agency, and the successful negotiation by the United Nations Environment Program of the Minamata Convention, emissions of mercury (Hg) have declined in the United States. While the declines in atmospheric Hg concentrations in North America are encouraging, linking the declines to changing domestic and global source portfolios remains challenging. To address these research gaps, the U.S. Geological Survey initiated the first national‐scale effort to establish a baseline of total gaseous mercury stable isotope values at 31 sites distributed across the United States. Results indicated that unique Hg sources, such as Hg evasion from an elemental Hg contaminated site or free tropospheric intrusions in high altitude sites, were distinguishable from background atmospheric values. Minor gradients were observed across the nation, with regions of heavy industrial activity demonstrating lower δ 202 Hg, but no consistent changes in other isotopes such as Δ 199 Hg and Δ 200 Hg were observed. Furthermore, δ 202 Hg was impacted by foliar uptake and senescence but trends varied between forested regions in the northeastern and midwestern United States. These data demonstrate regional emission sources and other environmental variables can impact total gaseous Hg (TGM) isotope values, highlighting the need to characterize atmospheric Hg isotopes over larger geographical areas to evaluate changes related to national and international Hg regulations.

Tate, Michael T.↗
DOE OSTI2023

Assessing Impacts of Environmental Perturbations on Urban Biogenic Carbon Exchange in the Chicago Region

Carbon dioxide (CO 2 ) quantification is critical for assessing city-level carbon emissions and sustainable urban development. While urban vegetation has the potential to provide environmental benefits, such as heat and carbon mitigation, the CO 2 exchange from biogenic sectors and its impact from the environmental perturbations are often overlooked. It is also challenging to simulate the plant functions in the complex urban terrain. This study presents a processed-based modeling approach to assess the biogenic carbon fluxes from the vegetated areas over the Chicago Metropolitan Area (CMA) using the Weather Research and Forecast—Urban Biogenic Carbon exchange model. We investigate the change of CO 2 sink power in CMA under heatwaves and irrigation. The results indicate that the vegetation plays a significant role in the city's carbon portfolio and the landscaping management has the potential to reduce carbon emissions significantly. Furthermore, based on the competing mechanisms in the biogenic carbon balance identified in this study, we develop a novel Environmental Benefit Score metrics framework to identify the vulnerability and mitigation measures associated with nature-based solutions (NbS) within CMA. By using the generalized portable framework and our science-policy confluence analysis presented in this study, global cities can maximize the effectiveness of NbS and accelerate carbon neutrality.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2025

Visual‐Analytics Bridge Complexity and Accessibility for Robust Urban Water Planning

Urban water resources planning is complicated by unprecedented uncertainty in supply and demand. Real‐world planning often simplifies the full range of uncertainty faced by a system into a limited set of deterministic scenarios to enhance accessibility for decision‐makers and the public. However, overlooking uncertainty can expose the system to failures. On the other end of the spectrum, academically developed tools for scenario analysis rigorously quantify the combined effects of multiple sources of uncertainty, but the practical application of these models is limited by the challenges of information visualization and communication of results. In short, municipal water supply planners lack access to planning frameworks that effectively integrate a rigorous treatment of uncertainty with accessible, user‐friendly visual and interactive tools to enhance user accessibility. In this work, we fill this gap by proposing Visual‐Robust Decision Making, and demonstrate an application for the city of Santa Barbara (SB), CA. Santa Barbara faces multiple uncertainties from pending state and federal regulations to changing hydrology and water demand. The city seeks to increase its water portfolio robustness by expanding its seawater desalination plant, but must decide how much capacity to add. We introduce computational tools that assess uncertainty across nine uncertain drivers identified with the help of water planners in SB. To allow public participation in the desalination expansion decision, we develop interactive visual‐analytics to aid decision‐makers and stakeholders in navigating complex scenario analysis outcomes. Our results quantify the tradeoffs between increased capacity and system robustness and aim to enhance participation and uncertainty characterization of urban water planning efforts.

29 ENERGY PLANNING, POLICY, AND ECONOMY↗
DOE OSTI2025

Evaluating How Climate Adaptation Measures Affect the Interconnected Water‐Energy Resource Systems of the Western United States

Abstract The Western US faces increasing water stress from the impacts of climate change, making it difficult to meet water demands for the region's cities, agriculture, and hydropower generators. Existing literature suggests that climate adaptation measures such as water conservation, cropland retirement, wastewater recycling, and managed aquifer recharge can alleviate some of these challenges. Few analyses, however, compare the relative efficacy and system‐wide effects of these adaptations under different climate projections across the entire Western United States. Here we use a Western US‐wide water systems model to evaluate, by sector and sub‐region, how the widespread implementation of these adaptive measures impacts water demands, water deliveries, and electricity use related to the water system for three different climate projections. We find that wastewater recycling has greater potential to lower unmet indoor water demands than urban indoor water conservation measures. However, when implemented at scale, indoor water conservation reduces electricity use by an average of 683 Terawatt hours while wastewater recycling increases energy use by an average of 721 Terawatt hours, cumulatively from 2020 to 2070. Cropland retirement and aquifer recharge adaptations increase the ability to meet agricultural water demand, increase groundwater storage, and reduce summertime electricity use. While most of these findings are consistent across different climate projections, the benefits of aquifer recharge are sensitive to spatial variation of precipitation. Given the limitations and tradeoffs of each individually, the results suggest that a portfolio of adaptation measures will be needed for a climate‐resilient water and energy future in the Western US. Plain Language Summary The Western US faces increased water stress from the impacts of climate change, making it difficult to meet demands for cities, agriculture, and hydropower facilities. Adaptation measures like water conservation, retiring agricultural lands, recycling wastewater, and storing water underground can address these challenges. However, there is little modeling to understand the impact of these adaptations if they were implemented across the entire Western US while also considering climate change. We use a Western US‐wide water systems model to evaluate how implementing adaptation measures impacts groundwater levels, the ability to meet water demands, and electricity use related to water in three different possible climate futures. We find that recycling wastewater to drinking water standards does a better job of meeting urban water demands than water conservation measures. However, indoor water conservation reduces energy use for water while recycling wastewater increases energy use for water. Retiring agricultural lands and storing water underground both increase the ability to meet agricultural water demands, increase underground water storage, and reduce summertime energy use. No adaptation measures provides benefits across every metric we track. Therefore, multiple adaptation measures will likely be needed to achieve a climate‐resilient future for energy and water in the Western US. Key Points Water‐related climate change adaptations have different benefits and tradeoffs for interconnected water‐energy systems in the Western U.S. Wastewater recycling most increases urban water coverage, but has a significant tradeoff in the form of greater electricity use Cropland retirement and aquifer recharge benefit water and electricity systems most in the summer when those systems are most stressed

Singhal, A↗
DOE OSTI2025

An Integrated Hydroclimatic Assessment of Future Reservoir and Hydropower Operations in the U.S.

The engineering of rivers by dams is a formative feature of human-nature systems and the interconnectivity of water, energy, and the climate. Sufficient and broad-based representations of dams in large-scale hydrological models prove essential to mapping their extensive regulation of river flow and biogeochemistry and gauging climate-linked provisions, including freshwater supply and hydropower. We present an integrated modeling framework to investigate future streamflow and hydropower generation in the Contiguous U.S. (1990–2075), leveraging an ensemble of six downscaled and bias-corrected General Circulation Models (GCMs) from the high-end SSP585 scenario of the CMIP6. To achieve this, we develop a reservoir operations and parameterization scheme for 1,384 dams in a high-resolution river network, including simulated hydropower generation for 326 dams. For the GCM ensemble mean, we simulate a widespread increase in regulated streamflow into the late-century (11% annual and 17% in winter for the dam median) with region-specific changes in summer streamflow that feature prominent declines in the Northwest (−7%). Mediation by reservoirs is shown to dampen intra-annual streamflow changes, delivering additional summer releases that partially mitigate declining flows. Total hydropower generation is projected to increase modestly (+3%), with boosted generation in the winter (+9%) and spring (+5%) offsetting declined summer generation (−3.4%), suggesting strong adaptation potential for hydropower in the future energy portfolio. Further analysis reveals that the choice of GCM, particularly in western regions, has significant bearing on projected streamflow and hydropower changes.

13 HYDRO ENERGY↗
DOE OSTI2021

Production of itaconic acid from alkali pretreated lignin by dynamic two stage bioconversion

Abstract Expanding the portfolio of products that can be made from lignin will be critical to enabling a viable bio-based economy. Here, we engineer Pseudomonas putida for high-yield production of the tricarboxylic acid cycle-derived building block chemical, itaconic acid, from model aromatic compounds and aromatics derived from lignin. We develop a nitrogen starvation-detecting biosensor for dynamic two-stage bioproduction in which itaconic acid is produced during a non-growth associated production phase. Through the use of two distinct itaconic acid production pathways, the tuning of TCA cycle gene expression, deletion of competing pathways, and dynamic regulation, we achieve an overall maximum yield of 56% (mol/mol) and titer of 1.3 g/L from p -coumarate, and 1.4 g/L titer from monomeric aromatic compounds produced from alkali-treated lignin. This work illustrates a proof-of-principle that using dynamic metabolic control to reroute carbon after it enters central metabolism enables production of valuable chemicals from lignin at high yields by relieving the burden of constitutively expressing toxic heterologous pathways.

59 BASIC BIOLOGICAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2025

Ternary molecular switching in a single-crystal optical actuator with correlated crystal strain

A growing portfolio of single-crystal optical actuators is forging a new class of photonic materials that hold prospects for quantum technologies. Ruthenium-based complexes that exhibit this phenomenon via SO 2 -linkage photoisomerisation are of particular interest since they display multiple metastable states, once induced by green light; yet, complete photoconversion into each SO 2 -isomeric state is rarely achieved. We discover a new complex, trans-[Ru(SO 2 )(NH 3 ) 4 (4-bromopyridine)]tosylate 2 , that produces 100% photoconverted η 1 -OSO isomeric crystal structures at 90 K, which fully transition into η 2 -(OS)O photoisomers upon warming to 100 K, while the dark-state η 1 -SO 2 structure is wholly recovered by heating the crystal to room temperature. Crystal structures and optical-absorption profiles of each state are captured via in-situ light-induced single-crystal X-ray diffraction and optical-absorption spectroscopy. Results show that both photoisomeric species behave as optical switches, but with distinct optical properties. The photoisomerisation process causes thermally-reversible micro- and nanoscopic crystal strain, as characterised by optical microscopy and in-situ light-induced atomic-force microscopy.

actuators↗
DOE OSTI2025

Pd/C promotes C–H bond activation and oxidation of p -hydroxybenzoate during hydrogenolysis of poplar

Hydrogenolysis of lignin generates a portfolio of products, the yields of which are generally calculated using a subset of phenolic monomers that are dependent on the lignin composition, product distribution, and analytical technique. Some lignins are naturally γ-acylated; poplar lignins, for example, have p-hydroxybenzoate groups on 1–15% of their syringyl subunits. Upon hydrogenolysis, it is generally assumed that the p-hydroxybenzoate is cleaved before the deacylated lignin is depolymerized. Hydrogenolysis of model γ-p-hydroxybenzoylated β-aryl ethers do not, however, produce the deacylated β-aryl ether intermediates, as was previously conjectured; products instead derive from palladium-assisted reactions on the cinnamyl p-hydroxybenzoates resulting in initial β-ether cleavage. The p-hydroxybenzoate moiety itself also undergoes carboxylate-assisted palladium-catalyzed C–H bond activation to form the 2,4-dihydroxybenzoate, that subsequently converts to the 2,4-dihydroxycyclohex-1-enoate. Furthermore, these details underscore previously unrecognized pathways and products that are key to understanding the different hydrogenolysis product distributions from naturally acylated lignins that are prevalent biomass-conversion feedstocks.

09 BIOMASS FUELS↗
DOE OSTI2020

A near-term to net zero alternative to the social cost of carbon for setting carbon prices

The social cost of carbon (SCC) is commonly described and used as the optimal CO 2 price. However, the wide range of SCC estimates provides limited practical assistance to policymakers setting specific CO 2 prices. In this study we describe an alternate near-term to net zero (NT2NZ) approach, estimating CO 2 prices needed in the near term for consistency with a net-zero CO 2 emissions target. This approach dovetails with the emissions-target-focused approach that frames climate policy discussions around the world, avoids uncertainties in estimates of climate damages and long-term decarbonization costs, offers transparency about sensitivities and enables the consideration of CO 2 prices alongside a portfolio of policies. We estimate illustrative NT2NZ CO 2 prices for the United States; for a 2050 net-zero CO 2 emission target, prices are US $ \$34$ to US $ \$64$ per metric ton in 2025 and US $ \$77$ to US $ \$124$ in 2030. These results are most influenced by assumptions about complementary policies and oil prices.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2021

Methods for tuning plasmonic and photonic optical resonances in high surface area porous electrodes

Abstract Surface plasmons have found a wide range of applications in plasmonic and nanophotonic devices. The combination of plasmonics with three-dimensional photonic crystals has enormous potential for the efficient localization of light in high surface area photoelectrodes. However, the metals traditionally used for plasmonics are difficult to form into three-dimensional periodic structures and have limited optical penetration depth at operational frequencies, which limits their use in nanofabricated photonic crystal devices. The recent decade has seen an expansion of the plasmonic material portfolio into conducting ceramics, driven by their potential for improved stability, and their conformal growth via atomic layer deposition has been established. In this work, we have created three-dimensional photonic crystals with an ultrathin plasmonic titanium nitride coating that preserves photonic activity. Plasmonic titanium nitride enhances optical fields within the photonic electrode while maintaining sufficient light penetration. Additionally, we show that post-growth annealing can tune the plasmonic resonance of titanium nitride to overlap with the photonic resonance, potentially enabling coupled-phenomena applications for these three-dimensional nanophotonic systems. Through characterization of the tuning knobs of bead size, deposition temperature and cycle count, and annealing conditions, we can create an electrically- and plasmonically-active photonic crystal as-desired for a particular application of choice.

36 MATERIALS SCIENCE↗
DOE OSTI2025

Applying equity principles leads to higher carbon removal obligations in Canada

Despite net-zero pledges, consensus on national responsibilities for carbon dioxide removal (CDR) strategies is lacking. Here, we use integrated assessment modeling to examine equity-informed estimates of Canada’s remaining carbon budgets, exploring CDR’s role at net-zero and beyond. Gigaton-scale CDR efforts post-2050 are needed to address Canada’s carbon debt under various burden-sharing principles. Cumulative negative emissions (2050-2100) could increase from 7.5 GtCO 2 in the Net-Zero scenario to 20.3 GtCO 2 in equity-informed scenarios. By 2100, a CDR portfolio, including bioenergy with carbon capture and storage, direct air capture, and enhanced weathering could contribute up to ~500 MtCO 2 /year of removals. The projected average CDR growth rates, 2.8%-16%/year, align with the historical adoption rates of ammonia synthesis and biomass consumption in Canada, underscoring the importance of drawing lessons from past successes. Socio-economic and technological sensitivity analysis highlights that, despite variations in the role of individual CDR technologies, CDR remains essential for Canada’s post-net-zero commitments.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗