Statistical methods and subjective probability Status report
Bibliography of subjective probability and Bayesian procedures - regression analyses
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Bibliography of subjective probability and Bayesian procedures - regression analyses
Probability of mission success by trajectory optimization for translunar space flights
State of randomly excited dynamical system estimated from noise measurements having finite duration, and optimal linear filter synthesized from conditional probability theory
Chernoff bound and tilted distribution argument for obtaining error probability bounds for binary signaling on slowly fading Rician channel
Iterative computation of a posteriori probability for M-ary nonsupervised adaptation
Resonance transition probabilities in intermediate coupling for some neutral nonmetals, noting radiative lifetime measurements by phase shift
Upper atmospheric turbulence velocity probability density investigated in 90 to 110 km region
Probability and payoff as factors influencing two- choice reaction time
Lower bounds to minimum error probability for block coding on noisy discrete memoryless channels
Fixed point probability row vector of regular or ergodic transition matrices simplified using generalized matrix inversion theory
A biophysical model has been developed that is based on the assumptions that an interphase chromosome occupies a spherical territory and that chromosome exchanges are formed by the misrejoining of two DNA double-strand breaks induced within a defined interaction distance. The model is used to explain the relative frequencies of inter- and intrachromosomal exchanges and the relationship between radiation-induced aberrations in individual chromosomes and the DNA content of the chromosome. Although this simple model predicts a higher ratio of inter- to intrachromosomal exchanges for low-LET radiation than for high-LET radiation, as has been suggested by others, we argue that the comparison of the prediction of the model with experimental results is not straightforward. With the model, we also show that the probability of the formation of interchromosomal exchanges is proportional to the "surface area" of the chromosome domain plus a correction term. The correction term is small if the interaction distance is less than 1 microm for both low- and high-LET radiations.
Using an alternate form of the Gaussian probability integral discovered a number of years ago, it is shown that the solution to a number of previously considered communication problems can be simplified and in some cases made more accurate(i.e., exact rather than bounded).
Human-in-the-loop (HITL) simulations cannot collect enough data from human operators to validate estimates of error probabilities for task components. Error rates for tasks have been estimated by using laboratory data for error rates depending on variables such as the cognitive complexity of the task. The limited channel capacity of human operators compels error rates to be strongly related to the time available for the task, the speed-accuracy trade-off. HITL simulations can provide valuable data on the time available for the operator's tasks. We propose that the response times be used in conjunction with measured speed-accuracy curves to estimate the operator error rates contributing to mission failure. Such analyses should be especially important in the estimation of error rates in off-nominal situations.
The NASA Conjunction Assessment Risk Analysis team has implemented new software to estimate the probability of collision (P (sub c)) for Earth-orbiting satellites. The algorithm employs a brute force Monte Carlo (BFMC) method which differs from most other methods because it uses orbital states and covariances propagated from their orbit determination epoch times using the full set of Astrodynamics Support Workstation higher order theory models, including the High Accuracy Satellite Drag Model. This paper de-scribes the BFMC algorithm, presents comparisons of BFMC P (sub c) estimates to those calculated using other methods, and discusses the implications for conjunction risk assessment.
This document provides guidance for assessing similarity relative to nondestructive evaluation (NDE) detectability based on Probability of Detection demonstrations when comparing different NDE inspection situations. Differences in inspection situations addressed by the similarity assessment methodology herein can include differences in the component being inspected, and differences in the conditions for the inspection. Additional differences in the inspection situation relative to differences in the method or procedure are not addressed in this document but can be assessed using NDE calibration or instrument standardization specimens.
This paper discusses the effect of global model error on probability of collision (Pc) determination. Modifications to the Pc formulation for cross-correlation of orbital error in prediction are developed and assessed for recent conjunctions. While specific geometries can be identified or constructed to produce significant change in Pc for the modified formulation, it is of operational interest to quantify the relative occurrence of such cases for satellite conjunction risk assessment. Such analysis is feasible per data collections in place over the past year.
Purpose: This document provides guidance on the design and analysis of a NASA Standard nondestructive evaluation (NDE) probability of detection (POD) study. A Standard NDE flaw size is considered to be conservative such that most inspectors, trained and certified in the specific NDE method, are expected to provide at least 90/95 POD for that flaw size to inspect fracture-critical hardware. Scope: This document is specifically applicable to NASA Technical Standards that establish the NDE requirements for any NASA system or component, flight or ground, where fracture control and a quantitative demonstration of POD is a requirement, including NASA-STD-5009B, Nondestructive Evaluation Requirements for Fracture-Critical Metallic Components, and NASA-STD-5019A,Fracture Control Requirements for Spaceflight Hardware.
Recent research in satellite conjunction risk assessment has levelled a number of criticisms at the probability of collision (Pc) parameter as a durable statement of satellite collision likelihood, and a number of different alternatives to this calculation have been proposed. Many of these proposals, however, stop at the outlining of the theory and do not discuss the additional philosophical and practical issues that must be confronted in evaluating such proposals for adoption. The present work seeks to outline some of these philosophical and practical considerations, and therefore the kinds of analyses and profiling that will be needed before the Pc, which is at present nearly universally adopted in the conjunction risk mitigation community, can be replaced with a new (and superior) paradigm and associated metric.