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At least 343 records · Page 19

A reliability-based cost effective fail-safe design procedure

The authors have developed a methodology for cost-effective fatigue design of structures subject to random fatigue loading. A stochastic model for fatigue crack propagation under random loading has been discussed. Fracture mechanics is then used to estimate the parameters of the model and the residual strength of structures with cracks. The stochastic model and residual strength variations have been used to develop procedures for estimating the probability of failure and its changes with inspection frequency. This information on reliability is then used to construct an objective function in terms of either a total weight function or cost function. A procedure for selecting the design variables, subject to constraints, by optimizing the objective function has been illustrated by examples. In particular, optimum design of stiffened panel has been discussed.

Hanagud, S.↗

Cost reduction potential of the DSN data base

The cost of the DSN data base can be reduced by computerizing and unifying the current multiplicity of separate manual, computer, and hybrid data bases. Savings would accrue from eliminating all manual system costs, increasing efficiency in data base implementation and maintenance-and-operation, and increasing data accuracy. By applying a simple mathematical savings model to current data base costs, this study estimates the probable range of net ten-year savings. The minimum net savings, under the assumptions of the study, are calculated as $7.5 million.

Mckenzie, M.↗

Size distribution of particles in planetary rings

Harris (1975) has suggested that the maximum size of particles in a planetary ring is controlled by collisional fragmentation rather than tidal stress. While this conclusion is probably true, estimated radius limits must be revised upward from Harris' values of a few kilometers by at least an order of magnitude. Accretion of particles within the Roche limit is also possible. These considerations affect theories concerning the evolution of Saturn's rings, of the moon, and of possible former satellites of Mercury and Venus. In the case of Saturn's rings, comparison of various theoretical scenarios with available observational evidence suggests that the rings formed from the breakup of larger particles rather than from original condensation as small particles. This process implies a distribution of particle sizes in Saturn's rings possibly ranging up to about 100 km but with most of the cross section in centimeter-scale particles.

Greenberg, R.↗

Determination of the Solar Energy Microclimate of the United States Using Satellite Data

The determination of total solar energy reaching the ground over the United States using measurements from meteorological satellites as the basic data set is examined. The methods of satellite data processing are described. Uncertainty analysis and comparison of results with well calibrated surface pyranometers are used to estimate the probable error in the satellite-based determination of ground insolation. It is 10 to 15 percent for daily information, and about 5 percent for monthly values. However, the natural space and time variability of insolation is much greater than the uncertainty in the method. The most important aspect of the satellite-based technique is the ability to determine the solar energy reaching the ground over small areas where no other measurements are available. Thus, it complements the widely spaced solar radiation measurement network of ground stations.

Vonderharr, T. H.↗

A hill-sliding strategy for initialization of Gaussian clusters in the multidimensional space

A hill sliding technique was devised to extract Gaussian clusters from the multivariate probability density estimate of sample data for the first step of iterative unsupervised classification. Each cluster was assumed to posses a unimodal normal distribution. A clustering function proposed distinguished elements of a cluster under formation from the rest in the feature space. Initial clusters were extracted one by one according to the hill sliding tactics. A dimensionless cluster compactness parameter was proposed as a universal measure of cluster goodness and used satisfactorily in test runs with LANDSAT multispectral scanner data. The normalized divergence, defined by the cluster divergence divided by the entropy of the entire sample data, was utilized as a general separability measure between clusters. An overall clustering objective function was set forth in terms of cluster covariance matrices, from which the cluster compactness measure could be deduced. Minimal improvement of initial data partitioning was evaluated by this objective function in eliminating scattered sparse data points. The hill sliding clustering technique developed herein has the potential applicability to decomposition any multivariate mixture distribution into a number of unimodal distributions when an appropriate distribution function to the data set is employed.

Park, J. K.↗

Crop calendars for the US, USSR, and Canada in support of the early warning project

New crop calendars are produced for U.S. regions where several years of periodic growth stage observations are available on a CRD basis. Preexisting crop calendars from the LACIE are also collected as are U.S. crop calendars currently being created for the Foreign Commodities Production Forecast project. For the U.S.S.R. and Canada, no new crop calendars are created because no new data are available. Instead, LACIE crop calendars are compared against simulated normal daily temperatures and against the Robertson wheat and Williams barley phenology models run on the simulated normal temperatures. Severe inconsistencies are noted and discussed. For the U.S.S.R., spring and fall planting dates can probably be estimated accurately from satellite or meteorological data. For the starter model problem, the Feyerherm spring wheat model is recommended for spring planted small grains, and the results of an analysis are presented. For fall planted small grains, use of normal planting dates supplemented by spectral observation of an early stage is recommended. The importance of nonmeteorological factors as they pertain to meteorological factors in determining fall planting is discussed. Crop calendar data available at the Johnson Space Center for the U.S., U.S.S.R., Canada, and other countries are inventoried.

Hodges, T.↗

Reliability analysis of the F-8 digital fly-by-wire system

The F-8 Digital Fly-by-Wire (DFBW) flight test program intended to provide the technology for advanced control systems, giving aircraft enhanced performance and operational capability is addressed. A detailed analysis of the experimental system was performed to estimated the probabilities of two significant safety critical events: (1) loss of primary flight control function, causing reversion to the analog bypass system; and (2) loss of the aircraft due to failure of the electronic flight control system. The analysis covers appraisal of risks due to random equipment failure, generic faults in design of the system or its software, and induced failure due to external events. A unique diagrammatic technique was developed which details the combinatorial reliability equations for the entire system, promotes understanding of system failure characteristics, and identifies the most likely failure modes. The technique provides a systematic method of applying basic probability equations and is augmented by a computer program written in a modular fashion that duplicates the structure of these equations.

Brock, L. D.↗

The polar ionosphere as a source of energetic magnetospheric plasma

Data are presented on an additional ionospheric source composed of ions flowing upward out of the high latitude polar cap with energies in the range of approximately 10 eV to more than about 100 eV. The data are from the energetic ion composition spectrometer (EICS) on board the Dynamics Explorer-1 satellite, launched in August 1981. It is noted that the results presented are not inconsistent with the existence of a polar wind of the type predicted by Axford (1968) since ions with energies less than about 1 eV would have been excluded from the instrument by the generally positive vehicle potential. The results suggest that the polar wind is either modified in mass composition and energy by some as yet unidentified process or is supplemented by a new unrelated source of plasma. What is more, owing to the higher energies, the energetic polar cap ions described here enter the plasma sheet at greater distances than Cowley (1980) estimated and probably represent a significant source of plasma for the maintenance of the plasma sheet.

Shelley, E. G.↗

Wind shear and vortex wake research in UK, 1982

A wind shear and vortex wake and their impact on aircraft were investigated. The systems and advice to help pilots, and rational scientific methods to assist in advising certification authorities and those interested in improving flight safety were developed. Wind Shear and Vortex Wakes are related, they are both invisible enemies of aircraft in the form of large disturbances in the atmosphere, both cause major accidents. Problems of building wakes at airports are is considered. Research on wind shear was initiated by the American FAA following the Boston, New York and Denver accidents to civil airliners. This resulted in: useful advice to pilots about wind shear; better attempts by the meteorologists at forecasting wind shear conditions; and useful ideas for wind shear measurement and warning systems. Three major research tasks are outstanding: (1) Worldwide measurements to give reliable estimates of probability and details of the forms of large wind shears; (2) Developments of real time wind shear measuring systems for ground or airborne use; and (3) Establishing relationships between measured wind shear and the potential hazard to an aircraft, or class of aircraft.

Alan A. Woodfield↗

Cloud encounter statistics in the 28.5-43.5 KFT altitude region from four years of GASP observations

The results of an analysis of cloud encounter measurements taken at aircraft flight altitudes as part of the Global Atmospheric Sampling Program are summarized. The results can be used in estimating the probability of cloud encounter and in assessing the economic feasibility of laminar flow control aircraft along particular routes. The data presented clearly show the tropical circulation and its seasonal migration; characteristics of the mid-latitude regime, such as the large-scale traveling cyclones in the winter and increased convective activity in the summer, can be isolated in the data. The cloud encounter statistics are shown to be consistent with the mid-latitude cyclone model. A model for TIC (time-in-clouds), a cloud encounter statistic, is presented for several common airline routes.

Jasperson, W. H.↗

QUEST - A Bayesian adaptive psychometric method

An adaptive psychometric procedure that places each trial at the current most probable Bayesian estimate of threshold is described. The procedure takes advantage of the common finding that the human psychometric function is invariant in form when expressed as a function of log intensity. The procedure is simple, fast, and efficient, and may be easily implemented on any computer.

Watson, A. B.↗

Atmospheric attenuation for correlated satellite communication ground sites

Link margin estimates are calculated for 30/20 GHz satellite communication systems employing closely-spaced (4 to 100 km) 'dual diversity' switched ground sites. The link margin estimates are based on a new analysis in which the bivariate rain attenuation density function for two correlated ground sites is modelled by an exponential density function. The results of the exponential density function analysis enable derivation of a direct relation between rain margin estimates and probability of exceedance (link availability). Margins typically in the range 2 to 12 dB are calculated for various ground site separations and summarized for seven city locations and five satellite orbit positions over the U.S. The results can be easily extended to other EHF satellite frequencies and other locations.

Christopher, P.↗

Some diatomic molecules from comet P/Halley's UV spectra near spacecraft flybys

The abundances of diatomic molecules seen in the UV both give clues to the parent compounds and help unravel the gas and ion mass spectrometry. From IUE spectra of comet Halley, upper limits on SH and CS(+) column densities and estimates of probable NO, S2, and SO are found. In particular, judged from the 226-nm gamma band, NO was relatively abundant at 2-8 x 10 to the 13th/sq cm on March 9-14. The production rate of S2 was around 1 x 10 to the 27th molecules/s at that time, but both showed day-to-day variability by 2-3 times.

Wallis, Max K.↗

Binary image classification

Motivated by the LANDSAT problem of estimating the probability of crop or geological types based on multi-channel satellite imagery data, Morris and Kostal (1983), Hill, Hinkley, Kostal, and Morris (1984), and Morris, Hinkley, and Johnston (1985) developed an empirical Bayes approach to this problem. Here, researchers return to those developments, making certain improvements and extensions, but restricting attention to the binary case of only two attributes.

Morris, Carl N.↗

Probabilistic simulation of uncertainties in composite uniaxial strengths

Probabilistic composite micromechanics methods are developed that simulate uncertainties in unidirectional fiber composite strengths. These methods are in the form of computational procedures using composite mechanics with Monte Carlo simulation. The variables for which uncertainties are accounted include constituent strengths and their respective scatter. A graphite/epoxy unidirectional composite (ply) is studied to illustrate the procedure and its effectiveness to formally estimate the probable scatter in the composite uniaxial strengths. The results show that ply longitudinal tensile and compressive, transverse compressive and intralaminar shear strengths are not sensitive to single fiber anomalies (breaks, intergacial disbonds, matrix microcracks); however, the ply transverse tensile strength is.

Chamis, C. C.↗

Mars Rover and Sample Return Mission design

The current reference Mars Rover and Sample Return mission is described. Technical issues are outlined, including high-resolution image acquisition and reconstruction, approach navigation, ground and flight systems operational complexity, rover autonomy, autonomous rendezvous and docking in Mars orbit, aerocapture and aeromaneuver, estimating the probability of mission success, and end-to-end information system design. Focus is placed on lander hazard identification and avoidance, pinpoint landing guidance and control, Mars ascent vehicle guidance and control, planetary protection and quarantine, sample acquisition and preservation, project management and control, systems requirements and interface control, and costing. In addition, program issues such as international participation, fiscal constraints, and launch-vehicle availability are considered.

Kwok, Johnny H.↗

Fluence-related risk coefficients using the Harderian gland data as an example

A new concept is introduced for assessing the risk of radiation-induced cancer to space travelers: a fluence-related risk coefficient F (called the risk cross section), which is the risk of a cancer per unit particle fluence for a given particle type. Fs are functions of the LET of the particles in the radiation field and, when integrated over fluence-LET spectra and summed, yield the risk of the endpoint of interest. As an example, tumor prevalence data in mice are used to estimate the probability of the induction of mouse Harderian-gland tumor per year on an extramagnetospheric mission inside an idealized shielding configuration of a spherical 1 g/sq cm hick aluminum shell. Results indicate a yearly tumor prevalence of 0.06 at solar minimum conditions, with 60 percent of this arising from charge components with Z between 10 and 28, and two-thirds of the contribution arising from LET components between 10 and 200 keV/micron.

Curtis, S. B.↗

Debris hazard for the Earth Observing System

The scientific mission of the Earth Observing System (EOS) is modeled to analyze the potential hazard of space debris and its impact on the effectiveness of the program. Specific attention is given to the hazard posed by untrackable debris and the velocities and impact rates of such debris. The NASA Debris Flux Model (DFM) is utilized, and the results are compared to those of the Frag model which predicts the background environment from known parameters and the Screen model for estimating collision probabilities. The probability of damaging impacts is shown to be significant and to increase over time; an EOS spacecraft has a 10 percent chance of being struck by a 1-cm object traveling at 14 km/s. The present analyses demonstrate the need to design the EOS spacecraft for a LEO environment in which collisions with debris are very likely.

Madler, Ronald A.↗