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At least 343 records · Page 19

ISMIP6 Antarctica: A Multi-Model Ensemble of the Antarctic Ice Sheet Evolution Over the 21st Century

Ice flow models of the Antarctic ice sheet are commonly used to simulate its future evolution in response to different climate scenarios and assess the mass loss that would contribute to future sea level rise. However, there is currently no consensus on estimates of the future mass balance of the ice sheet, primarily because of differences in the representation of physical processes, forcings employed and initial states of ice sheet models. This study presents results from ice flow model simulations from 13 international groups focusing on the evolution of the Antarctic ice sheet during the period 2015–2100 as part of the Ice Sheet Model Intercomparison for CMIP6 (ISMIP6). They are forced with outputs from a subset of models from the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 5 (CMIP5), representative of the spread in climate model results. Simulations of the Antarctic ice sheet contribution to sea level rise in response to increased warming during this period varies between -7:8 and 30.0 cm of sea level equivalent (SLE) under Representative Concentration Pathway (RCP) 8.5 scenario forcing. These numbers are relative to a control experiment with constant climate conditions and should therefore be added to the mass loss contribution under climate conditions similar to present-day conditions over the same period. The simulated evolution of the West Antarctic ice sheet varies widely among models, with an overall mass loss, up to 18.0 cm SLE, in response to changes in oceanic conditions. East Antarctica ass change varies between -6.1 and 8.3 cm SLE in the simulations, with a significant increase in surface mass balance outweighing the increased ice discharge under most RCP 8.5 scenario forcings. The inclusion of ice shelf collapse, here assumed to be caused by large amounts of liquid water ponding at the surface of ice shelves, yields an additional simulated mass loss of 28mm compared to simulations without ice shelf collapse. The largest sources of uncertainty come from the climate forcing, the ocean-induced melt rates, the calibration of these melt rates based on oceanic conditions taken outside of ice shelf cavities and the ice sheet dynamic response to these oceanic changes. Results under RCP 2.6 scenario based on two CMIP5 climate models show an additional mass loss of 0 and 3 cm of SLE on average compared to simulations done under present-day conditions for the two CMIP5 forcings used and display limited mass gain in East Antarctica.

Hélène Seroussi↗

Two-Layer Variable Infiltration Capacity Land Surface Representation for General Circulation Models

A simple two-layer variable infiltration capacity (VIC-2L) land surface model suitable for incorporation in general circulation models (GCMs) is described. The model consists of a two-layer characterization of the soil within a GCM grid cell, and uses an aerodynamic representation of latent and sensible heat fluxes at the land surface. The effects of GCM spatial subgrid variability of soil moisture and a hydrologically realistic runoff mechanism are represented in the soil layers. The model was tested using long-term hydrologic and climatalogical data for Kings Creek, Kansas to estimate and validate the hydrological parameters. Surface flux data from three First International Satellite Land Surface Climatology Project Field Experiments (FIFE) intensive field compaigns in the summer and fall of 1987 in central Kansas, and from the Anglo-Brazilian Amazonian Climate Observation Study (ABRACOS) in Brazil were used to validate the mode-simulated surface energy fluxes and surface temperature.

GENERAL CIRCULATION MODELS↗

Open Innovation for a NASA Architecture Library

NASA’s Center of Excellence for Collaborative Innovation (CoECI) uses open innovation, or “crowdsourcing”, to access the global public to find ideas, concepts, designs, or solutions that meet a previously unmet need possibly resulting in significant advances in performance. The Center of Excellence for Collaborative Innovation was launched at the request of the White House Office of Science and Technology Policy. This is both a non-traditional method of innovation and a non-traditional method of outreach to the public to involve them in space technologies and programs. It has been used often for software development and new hardware technology. In this case we applied it to innovate with systems engineering tools for creating space architectures. The challenge was sponsored by NASA Engineering and Safety Center Systems Engineering Technical Fellow as part of a program for NASA’s adoption of MBSE. It was a trial to see if there would be as much participation or quality submissions with this more specialized topic and skill. The challenge sought space architecture representations and decompositions to create a library of modeled parts in a system modeling language (SysML). Mission architects mostly start from scratch to build model elements representing the functional and physical architecture of a system in SysML. There are a few beginning libraries, but these are also local to a program or group. A common library will save system engineers a large amount of time, will allow project stakeholders to recognize common graphics and quickly understand the architecture options. The challenge was promoted internationally, especially through professional organizations and universities with a systems engineering focus. It was open for 4 months, purposefully over the winter holiday break time to allow participants extra time outside of work or school. The challenge was designed so that expertise in space hardware was not necessary but getting to play with models of space architecture could provide motivation to participate. We did not receive as many entries as other broader outreach challenges, but the ones we received were extremely thorough and high quality. Solutions came from individuals and teams, students and professional consultants from the United States and Europe. We learned a few lessons about how to engage with the public and what characteristics of a problem result in good crowdsourcing results. The outreach challenge produced several useful ideas and modeled space elements, and the group will be engaging the winners to learn more about their new approaches.

innovation↗

Unsteady analysis of rotor blade tip flow

The development of the VSAERO-TS and VSAERO-H computer programs for calculating the unsteady aerodynamic characteristics of arbitrarily shaped wings oscillating in pitch is presented. The effect of several wake parameters on chordwise pressure distribution in VSAERO-TS is given and the convergence characteristics of both programs are discussed. In the program, the influence coefficient for each panel is formulated for a planar surface and so a skewed panel is represented by a projected flat quadrilateral lying in the mean plane. Since panels in the extreme roll-up region of the tip vortex are highly skewed the program was modified to treat each highly skewed panel as a pair of triangles. The programs are validated by comparing the chordwise pressure distribution of several blade tip planforms with experimental data. The comparison, for the most part, is good. The triangular panel representation improved the chordwise pressure distribution near the tip region for higher mean angle of attack.

Maskey, B.↗

Automating a human factors evaluation of graphical user interfaces for NASA applications: An update on CHIMES

Capturing human factors knowledge about the design of graphical user interfaces (GUI's) and applying this knowledge on-line are the primary objectives of the Computer-Human Interaction Models (CHIMES) project. The current CHIMES prototype is designed to check a GUI's compliance with industry-standard guidelines, general human factors guidelines, and human factors recommendations on color usage. Following the evaluation, CHIMES presents human factors feedback and advice to the GUI designer. The paper describes the approach to modeling human factors guidelines, the system architecture, a new method developed to convert quantitative RGB primaries into qualitative color representations, and the potential for integrating CHIMES with user interface management systems (UIMS). Both the conceptual approach and its implementation are discussed. This paper updates the presentation on CHIMES at the first International Symposium on Ground Data Systems for Spacecraft Control.

Jiang, Jian-Ping↗

The contribution of CEOP data to the understanding and modeling of monsoon systems

CEOP has contributed and will continue to provide integrated data sets from diverse platforms for better understanding of the water and energy cycles, and for validating models. In this talk, I will show examples of how CEOP has contributed to the formulation of a strategy for the study of the monsoon as a system. The CEOP data concept has led to the development of the CEOP Inter-Monsoon Studies (CIMS), which focuses on the identification of model bias, and improvement of model physics such as the diurnal and annual cycles. A multi-model validation project focusing on diurnal variability of the East Asian monsoon, and using CEOP reference site data, as well as CEOP integrated satellite data is now ongoing. Similar validation projects in other monsoon regions are being started. Preliminary studies show that climate models have difficulties in simulating the diurnal signals of total rainfall, rainfall intensity and frequency of occurrence, which have different peak hours, depending on locations. Further more model diurnal cycle of rainfall in monsoon regions tend to lead the observed by about 2-3 hours. These model bias offer insight into lack of, or poor representation of key components of the convective,and stratiform rainfall. The CEOP data also stimulated studies to compare and contrasts monsoon variability in different parts of the world. It was found that seasonal wind reversal, orographic effects, monsoon depressions, meso-scale convective complexes, SST and land surface land influences are common features in all monsoon regions. Strong intraseasonal variability is present in all monsoon regions. While there is a clear demarcation of onset, breaks and withdrawal in the Asian and Australian monsoon region associated with climatological intraseasonal variability, it is less clear in the American and Africa monsoon regions. The examination of satellite and reference site data in monsoon has led to preliminary model experiments to study the impact of aerosol on monsoon variability. I will show examples of how the study of the dynamics of aerosol-water cycle interactions in the monsoon region, can be best achieved using the CEOP data and modeling strategy.

Lau, William K. M.↗

Toward autonomous driving: The CMU Navlab. I - Perception

The Navlab project, which seeks to build an autonomous robot that can operate in a realistic environment with bad weather, bad lighting, and bad or changing roads, is discussed. The perception techniques developed for the Navlab include road-following techniques using color classification and neural nets. These are discussed with reference to three road-following systems, SCARF, YARF, and ALVINN. Three-dimensional perception using three types of terrain representation (obstacle maps, terrain feature maps, and high-resolution maps) is examined. It is noted that perception continues to be an obstacle in developing autonomous vehicles.

Thorpe, Charles↗

Using Ensemble Short-Term Initialized Coupled NASA GEOS5 Climate Model Integrations to Study Convective Bias Growth

The representation of convective processes, particularly deep convection in the tropics, remains a persistent problem in climate models. In fact structural biases in the distribution of tropical rainfall in the CMIP5 models is hardly different than that of the CMIP3 versions. Given that regional climate change at higher latitudes is sensitive to the configuration of tropical forcing, this persistent bias is a major issue for the credibility of climate change projections. In this study we use model output from integrations of the NASA Global Earth Observing System Five (GEOS5) climate modeling system to study the evolution of biases in the location and intensity of convective processes. We take advantage of a series of hindcast experiments done in support of the US North American Multi-Model Ensemble (NMME) initiative. For these experiments a nine-month forecast using a coupled model configuration is made approximately every five days over the past 30 years. Each forecast is started with an updated analysis of the ocean, atmosphere and land states. For a given calendar month we have approximately 180 forecasts with daily means of various quantities. These forecasts can be averaged to essentially remove "weather scales" and highlight systematic errors as they evolve. Our primary question is to ask how the spatial structure of daily mean precipitation over the tropics evolves from the initial state and what physical processes are involved. Errors in parameterized convection, various water and energy fluxes and the divergent circulation are found to set up on fast time scales (order five days) compared to errors in the ocean, although SST changes can be non-negligible over that time. For the month of June the difference between forecast day five versus day zero precipitation looks quite similar to the difference between the June precipitation climatology and that from the Global Precipitation Climatology Project (GPCP). We focus much of our analysis on the influence of SST gradients, associated PBL baroclinicity enabled by turbulent mixing, the ensuing PBL moisture convergence, and how changes in these processes relate to convective precipitation bias growth over this short period.

Cohen, Charlie↗

Report of MAGSAT project by Survey of India

Magsat data fo quiet days for the period 4.11.79, 17.11.79 to 24.11.79, which pertains to 44 passes, was screened to exclude the the period of exclude the period of maximum diurnal variation. The results of this screening process is a data set that has the effect, (or at least the major part of the effect), of the external field removed from it. Such a data set is the basis for further analysis which is in hand. The data set is now being reduced to horizontal plane. The mathematical techniques uses a finite harmonic series representation of the three dimensional data, combined with least squares approach for the solution of coefficients. A computer programme was developed to reduce satellite data to a common elevation.

Sawhney, J. L.↗

Representation and Integration of Scientific Information

The objective of this Joint Research Interchange with NASA-Ames was to investigate how the Tsimmis technology could be used to represent and integrate scientific information. The funding allowed us to work with researchers within NAS at the NASA Ames Research Center, to understand their information needs, and to work with them on integration strategies. Most organizations have a need to access and integrate information from multiple, disparate information sources that may include both structured as well as semi-structured information. At Stanford we have been working on an information integration project called Tsimmis, supported by DARPA. The main goal of the Tsimmis project is to allow a decision maker to find information of interest from such sources, fuse it, and process it (e.g., summarize it, visualize it, discover trends). Another important goal is the easy incorporation of new sources, as well the ability of deal with sources whose structure or services evolve. During the Interchange we had research meetings approximately every month or two. The participants from NASA included Michael Cox and Peter Vanderbilt. The Stanford PI, and various students and Stanford staff members also participated. NASA researchers also participated in some of our regular Tsimmis meetings. As planned, our meetings discussed problems and solutions to various information integration problems.

Source record↗

Function-space quasi-Newton algorithms for optimal control problems with bounded controls and singular arcs

Two existing function-space quasi-Newton algorithms, the Davidon algorithm and the projected gradient algorithm, are modified so that they may handle directly control-variable inequality constraints. A third quasi-Newton-type algorithm, developed by Broyden, is extended to optimal control problems. The Broyden algorithm is further modified so that it may handle directly control-variable inequality constraints. From a computational viewpoint, dyadic operator implementation of quasi-Newton methods is shown to be superior to the integral kernel representation. The quasi-Newton methods, along with the steepest descent method and two conjugate gradient algorithms, are simulated on three relatively simple (yet representative) bounded control problems, two of which possess singular subarcs. Overall, the Broyden algorithm was found to be superior. The most notable result of the simulations was the clear superiority of the Broyden and Davidon algorithms in producing a sharp singular control subarc.

Edge, E. R.↗

ATOS-1: Designing the infrastructure for an advanced spacecraft operations system

The space industry has identified the need to use artificial intelligence and knowledge based system techniques as integrated, central, symbolic processing components of future mission design, support and operations systems. Various practical and commercial constraints require that off-the-shelf applications, and their knowledge bases, are reused where appropriate and that different mission contractors, potentially using different KBS technologies, can provide application and knowledge sub-modules of an overall integrated system. In order to achieve this integration, which we call knowledge sharing and distributed reasoning, there needs to be agreement on knowledge representations, knowledge interchange-formats, knowledge level communications protocols, and ontology. Research indicates that the latter is most important, providing the applications with a common conceptualization of the domain, in our case spacecraft operations, mission design, and planning. Agreement on ontology permits applications that employ different knowledge representations to interwork through mediators which we refer to as knowledge agents. This creates the illusion of a shared model without the constraints, both technical and commercial, that occur in centralized or uniform architectures. This paper explains how these matters are being addressed within the ATOS program at ESOC, using techniques which draw upon ideas and standards emerging from the DARPA Knowledge Sharing Effort. In particular, we explain how the project is developing an electronic Ontology of Spacecraft Operations and how this can be used as an enabling component within space support systems that employ advanced software engineering. We indicate our hope and expectation that the core ontology developed in ATOS, will permit the full development of standards for such systems throughout the space industry.

Poulter, K. J.↗

Experiences Using Formal Methods for Requirements Modeling

This paper describes three cases studies in the lightweight application of formal methods to requirements modeling for spacecraft fault protection systems. The case studies differ from previously reported applications of formal methods in that formal methods were applied very early in the requirements engineering process, to validate the evolving requirements. The results were fed back into the projects, to improve the informal specifications. For each case study, we describe what methods were applied, how they were applied, how much effort was involved, and what the findings were. In all three cases, the formal modeling provided a cost effective enhancement of the existing verification and validation processes. We conclude that the benefits gained from early modeling of unstable requirements more than outweigh the effort needed to maintain multiple representations.

Easterbrook, Steve↗

DYAMOND: The DYnamics of the Atmospheric General Circulation Modeled on Non-Hydrostatic Domains

A review of the experimental protocol and motivation for DYAMOND, the first intercomparison project of global storm-resolving models, is presented. Nine models submitted simulation output for a 40-day (1 August–10 September 2016) intercomparison period. Eight of these employed a tiling of the sphere that was uniformly less than 5 km. By resolving the transient dynamics of convective storms in the tropics, global storm-resolving models remove the need to parameterize tropical deep convection, providing a fundamentally more sound representation of the climate system and a more natural link to commensurately high-resolution data from satellite-borne sensors. The models and some basic characteristics of their output are described in more detail, as is the availability and planned use of this output for future scientific study. Tropically and zonally averaged energy budgets, precipitable water distributions, and precipitation from the model ensemble are evaluated, as is their representation of tropical cyclones and the predictability of column water vapor, the latter being important for tropical weather.

Bjorn Stevens↗

The development of a program analysis environment for Ada: Reverse engineering tools for Ada

The Graphical Representations of Algorithms, Structures, and Processes for Ada (GRASP/Ada) has successfully created and prototyped a new algorithm level graphical representation for Ada software, the Control Structure Diagram (CSD). The primary impetus for creation of the CSD was to improve the comprehension efficiency of Ada software and thus improve reliability and reduce costs. The emphasis was on the automatic generation of the CSD from Ada source code to support reverse engineering and maintenance. The CSD has the potential to replace traditional prettyprinted Ada source code. In Phase 1 of the GRASP/Ada project, the CSD graphical constructs were created and applied manually to several small Ada programs. A prototype (Version 1) was designed and implemented using FLEX and BISON running under the Virtual Memory System (VMS) on a VAX 11-780. In Phase 2, the prototype was improved and ported to the Sun 4 platform under UNIX. A user interface was designed and partially implemented. The prototype was applied successfully to numerous Ada programs ranging in size from several hundred to several thousand lines of source code. In Phase 3 of the project, the prototype was prepared for limited distribution (GRASP/Ada Version 3.0) to facilitate evaluation. The user interface was extensively reworked. The current prototype provides the capability for the user to generate CSD from Ada source code in a reverse engineering mode with a level of flexibility suitable for practical application.

Cross, James H., II↗

NASA image-based geological expert system development project for hyperspectral image analysis

The NASA image-based geological expert system was applied to analyze remotely sensed hyperspectral image data. The major objective is for geologists to identify the earth surface mineral properties directly from the airborne and spaceborne imaging spectrometer data. With certain constraints, it is shown that the system can identify correctly different classes of mineral. It has the built-in learning paradigm to enhance the confidence factor of mineral identification. A very powerful natural language system was incorporated as the user-friendly front end, and the concurrent processing efficiency of the frame-based knowledge representation in the hypercube microsupercomputer simulation was tested.

Chiou, W. C., Sr.↗

The Surface Heat Flux as a Function of Ground Cover for Climate Models

Surface heat fluxes were examined as a function of surface properties and meteorological conditions in a 100 km x 100 km grid square at 1-km spatial resolution centered at the location of the First ISLSCP (International Satellite Land Surface Climatology Project) Field Experiment (FIFE), the Forest Ecosystem Dynamics site in central Maine, and a semiarid rangeland site around Walnut Gulch, Arizona. This investigation treats the surface heat flux variability within a GCM grid box to provide insight into methods for treating that variability in climate models. The heat fluxes were calculated using NOAA AVHRR and available meteorological data. The average heat fluxes that were estimated using the various area ground-cover representations were compared with the ensemble average heat fluxes for the entire area, which were assumed to be the best representation of the heat fluxes for the areas. Average beat fluxes were estimated for the entire 100 km x 100 km area based on a single ground-cover representation, and the mean error for the area sensible heat flux was about 10% and for the area latent heat flux, 21%. The estimation error was reduced, and in some cases significantly reduced, when the area heat fluxes were estimated by partitioning the area according to significant ground cover. The most significant effect of the partitioning was on the latent heat flux estimates.

Vukovich, Fred M.↗

MODIS-HIRIS ground data systems commonality report

The High Resolution Imaging Spectrometer (HIRIS) and Moderate Resolution Imaging Spectrometer (MODIS) Data Systems Working Group was formed in September 1988 with representatives of the MODIS Data System Study Group and the HIRIS Project Data System Design Group to collaborate in the development of requirements on the EosDIS necessary to meet the science objectives of the two facility instruments. A major objective was to identify and promote commonality between the HIRIS and MODIS data systems, especially from the science users' point of view. A goal was to provide a base set of joint requirements and specifications which could easily be expanded to a Phase-B representation of the needs of the science users of all EOS instruments. This document describes the points of commonality and difference between the Level-II Requirements, Operations Concepts, and Systems Specifications for the ground data systems for the MODIS and HIRIS instruments at their present state of development.

Han, D.↗