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NASA NTRS2008

Uncertainty and Sensitivity Analyses of Duct Propagation Models

This paper presents results of uncertainty and sensitivity analyses conducted to assess the relative merits of three duct propagation codes. Results from this study are intended to support identification of a "working envelope" within which to use the various approaches underlying these propagation codes. This investigation considers a segmented liner configuration that models the NASA Langley Grazing Incidence Tube, for which a large set of measured data was available. For the uncertainty analysis, the selected input parameters (source sound pressure level, average Mach number, liner impedance, exit impedance, static pressure and static temperature) are randomly varied over a range of values. Uncertainty limits (95% confidence levels) are computed for the predicted values from each code, and are compared with the corresponding 95% confidence intervals in the measured data. Generally, the mean values of the predicted attenuation are observed to track the mean values of the measured attenuation quite well and predicted confidence intervals tend to be larger in the presence of mean flow. A two-level, six factor sensitivity study is also conducted in which the six inputs are varied one at a time to assess their effect on the predicted attenuation. As expected, the results demonstrate the liner resistance and reactance to be the most important input parameters. They also indicate the exit impedance is a significant contributor to uncertainty in the predicted attenuation.

Nark, Douglas M.↗

NASA NTRS2015

Optimization of Microphone Locations for Acoustic Liner Impedance Eduction

Two impedance eduction methods are explored for use with data acquired in the NASA Langley Grazing Flow Impedance Tube. The first is an indirect method based on the convected Helmholtz equation, and the second is a direct method based on the Kumaresan and Tufts algorithm. Synthesized no-flow data, with random jitter to represent measurement error, are used to evaluate a number of possible microphone locations. Statistical approaches are used to evaluate the suitability of each set of microphone locations. Given the computational resources required, small sample statistics are employed for the indirect method. Since the direct method is much less computationally intensive, a Monte Carlo approach is employed to gather its statistics. A comparison of results achieved with full and reduced sets of microphone locations is used to determine which sets of microphone locations are acceptable. For the indirect method, each array that includes microphones in all three regions (upstream and downstream hard wall sections, and liner test section) provides acceptable results, even when as few as eight microphones are employed. The best arrays employ microphones well away from the leading and trailing edges of the liner. The direct method is constrained to use microphones opposite the liner. Although a number of arrays are acceptable, the optimum set employs 14 microphones positioned well away from the leading and trailing edges of the liner. The selected sets of microphone locations are also evaluated with data measured for ceramic tubular and perforate-over-honeycomb liners at three flow conditions (Mach 0.0, 0.3, and 0.5). They compare favorably with results attained using all 53 microphone locations. Although different optimum microphone locations are selected for the two impedance eduction methods, there is significant overlap. Thus, the union of these two microphone arrays is preferred, as it supports usage of both methods. This array contains 3 microphones in the upstream hard wall section, 14 microphones opposite the liner, and 3 microphones in the downstream hard wall section.

Jones, M. G.↗

NASA NTRS2018

Global Ecosystem Dynamics Investigation (GEDI) Structural Verification Unit (SVU) Vibration Test

This presentation describes the vibration test campaign of the Structural Verification Unit for the Global Ecosystem Dynamics Investigation (GEDI) mission The Structural Verification Unit test campaign served multiple purposes including the qualification of the instrument primary structure, verification of the structure's stiffness, Aperture Control Mechanism assembly level verification, and validation of the control approach for protoflight instrument vibration testing. Testing included three axes of sine burst, random, and sine vibration excitation. This test sequence required a high number of response instrumentation sensors that included tri-axial accelerometers and tri-axial force gauges. Multiple response limiting methods that included acceleration, force, and moment measurements were used to ensure the safety of the flight hardware. The lessons and specific test details learned on the structural verification unit test campaign will reduce test risks for the upcoming instrument-level vibration tests.

Structural Verification Unit↗

NASA NTRS2017

Derivation of Aerosol Profiles for MC3E Convection Studies and Use in Simulations of the 20 May Squall Line Case

Advancing understanding of deep convection microphysics via mesoscale modeling studies of well-observed case studies requires observation-based aerosol inputs. Here, we derive hygroscopic aerosol size distribution input profiles from ground-based and airborne measurements for six convection case studies observed during the Midlatitude Continental Convective Cloud Experiment (MC3E) over Oklahoma. We demonstrate use of an input profile in simulations of the only well-observed case study that produced extensive stratiform outflow on 20 May 2011. At well-sampled elevations between -11 and -23 degree C over widespread stratiform rain, ice crystal number concentrations are consistently dominated by a single mode near 400 micrometer in randomly oriented maximum dimension (D[superscript max] ). The ice mass at -23 degree C is primarily in a closely collocated mode, whereas a mass mode near D[superscript max] -1000 micrometer becomes dominant with decreasing elevation to the -11 degree C level, consistent with possible aggregation during sedimentation. However, simulations with and without observation-based aerosol inputs systematically overpredict mass peak D[superscript max] by a factor of 3-5 and underpredict ice number concentration by a factor of 4-10. Previously reported simulations with both two-moment and size-resolved microphysics have shown biases of a similar nature. The observed ice properties are notably similar to those reported from recent tropical measurements. Based on several lines of evidence, we speculate that updraft microphysical pathways determining outflow properties in the 20 May case are similar to a tropical regime, likely associated with warm-temperature ice multiplication that is not well understood or well represented in models.

Fridlind, Ann M.↗

NASA NTRS1983

Real line strength distributions for random band models

An improved random band-model method, which makes allowance for the real line-strength distribution, is proposed. The model is shown to be useful for low-resolution, infrared observational data of the outer solar system. The method can be used as easily as conventional random band calculations. In the illustrative examples cited here, the variation of line width with J, the rotational quantum number, is small. Other effects which can, in principle, cause the model to deviate from laboratory observations are discussed. These include the assumption that line positions are random, ignoring the effects of the Lorentz wings of lines immediately outside the specific interval for which the mean transmission is calculated, and ignoring the effects of instrumental slit functions.

Kim, S. J.↗

NASA NTRS2016

Consistent Evaluation of ACOS-GOSAT, BESD-SCIAMACHY, CarbonTracker, and MACC Through Comparisons to TCCON

Consistent validation of satellite CO2 estimates is a prerequisite for using multiple satellite CO2 measurements for joint flux inversion, and for establishing an accurate long-term atmospheric CO2 data record. Harmonizing satellite CO2 measurements is particularly important since the differences in instruments, observing geometries, sampling strategies, etc. imbue different measurement characteristics in the various satellite CO2 data products. We focus on validating model and satellite observation attributes that impact flux estimates and CO2 assimilation, including accurate error estimates, correlated and random errors, overall biases, biases by season and latitude, the impact of coincidence criteria, validation of seasonal cycle phase and amplitude, yearly growth, and daily variability. We evaluate dry-air mole fraction (X(sub CO2)) for Greenhouse gases Observing SATellite (GOSAT) (Atmospheric CO2 Observations from Space, ACOS b3.5) and SCanning Imaging Absorption spectroMeter for Atmospheric CHartographY (SCIAMACHY) (Bremen Optimal Estimation DOAS, BESD v2.00.08) as well as the CarbonTracker (CT2013b) simulated CO2 mole fraction fields and the Monitoring Atmospheric Composition and Climate (MACC) CO2 inversion system (v13.1) and compare these to Total Carbon Column Observing Network (TCCON) observations (GGG2012/2014). We find standard deviations of 0.9, 0.9, 1.7, and 2.1 parts per million vs. TCCON for CT2013b, MACC, GOSAT, and SCIAMACHY, respectively, with the single observation errors 1.9 and 0.9 times the predicted errors for GOSAT and SCIAMACHY, respectively. We quantify how satellite error drops with data averaging by interpreting according to (error(sup 2) equals a(sup 2) plus b(sup 2) divided by n (with n being the number of observations averaged, a the systematic (correlated) errors, and b the random (uncorrelated) errors). a and b are estimated by satellites, coincidence criteria, and hemisphere. Biases at individual stations have year-to-year variability of 0.3 parts per million, with biases larger than the TCCON predicted bias uncertainty of 0.4 parts per million at many stations. We find that GOSAT and CT2013b under-predict the seasonal cycle amplitude in the Northern Hemisphere (NH) between 46 and 53 degrees North latitude, MACC over-predicts between 26 and 37 degrees North latitude, and CT2013b under-predicts the seasonal cycle amplitude in the Southern Hemisphere (SH). The seasonal cycle phase indicates whether a data set or model lags another data set in time. We find that the GOSAT measurements improve the seasonal cycle phase substantially over the prior while SCIAMACHY measurements improve the phase significantly for just two of seven sites. The models reproduce the measured seasonal cycle phase well except for at Lauder_125HR (CT2013b) and Darwin (MACC). We compare the variability within 1 day between TCCON and models in June-July-August; there is correlation between 0.2 and 0.8 in the NH, with models showing 10-50 percent the variability of TCCON at different stations and CT2013b showing more variability than MACC. This paper highlights findings that provide inputs to estimate flux errors in model assimilations, and places where models and satellites need further investigation, e.g., the SH for models and 45-67 degrees North latitude for GOSAT and CT2013b.

ACOS-GOSAT↗

NASA NTRS2017

Derivation of Aerosol Profiles for MC3E Convection Studies and Use in Simulations of the 20 May Squall Line Case

Advancing understanding of deep convection microphysics via mesoscale modeling studies of well-observed case studies requires observation-based aerosol inputs. Here, we derive hygroscopic aerosol size distribution input profiles from ground-based and airborne measurements for six convection case studies observed during the Midlatitude Continental Convective Cloud Experiment (MC3E) over Oklahoma. We demonstrate use of an input profile in simulations of the only well-observed case study that produced extensive stratiform outflow on 20 May 2011. At well-sampled elevations between −11 and −23 C over widespread stratiform rain, ice crystal number concentrations are consistently dominated by a single mode near approx. 400 microm in randomly oriented maximum dimension (Dmax). The ice mass at −23 C is primarily in a closely collocated mode, whereas a mass mode near Dmax approx. 1000 microns becomes dominant with decreasing elevation to the −11 C level, consistent with possible aggregation during sedimentation. However, simulations with and without observation-based aerosol inputs systematically overpredict mass peak Dmax by a factor of 3-5 and underpredict ice number concentration by a factor of 4-10. Previously reported simulations with both two-moment and size-resolved microphysics have shown biases of a similar nature. The observed ice properties are notably similar to those reported from recent tropical measurements. Based on several lines of evidence, we speculate that updraft microphysical pathways determining outflow properties in the 20 May case are similar to a tropical regime, likely associated with warm-temperature ice multiplication that is not well understood or well represented in models.

Fridlind, Ann M.↗

DOE OSTI2025

Efficient Floating-Point Arithmetic on Fault-Tolerant Quantum Computers

We propose a novel floating-point encoding scheme that builds on prior work involving fixed-point encodings. We encode floating-point numbers using Two's Complement fixed-point mantissas and Two's Complement integral exponents. We used our proposed approach to develop quantum algorithms for fundamental arithmetic operations, such as bit-shifting, reciprocation, multiplication, and addition. We prototyped and investigated the performance of the floating-point encoding scheme on quantum computer simulations by performing reciprocation on randomly drawn inputs and by solving first-order ordinary differential equations, while varying the number of qubits in the encoding. We observed rapid convergence to the exact solutions as we increased the number of qubits and a significant reduction in the number of ancilla qubits required for reciprocation when compared with similar approaches.

Serrallés, José Cruz [Weill Cornell Med. Coll.]↗

NASA NTRS1975

Stimulus novelty, task relevance and the visual evoked potential in man

The effect of task relevance on P3 (waveform of human evoked potential) waves and the methodologies used to deal with them are outlined. Visual evoked potentials (VEPs) were recorded from normal adult subjects performing in a visual discrimination task. Subjects counted the number of presentations of the numeral 4 which was interposed rarely and randomly within a sequence of tachistoscopically flashed background stimuli. Intrusive, task-irrelevant (not counted) stimuli were also interspersed rarely and randomly in the sequence of 2s; these stimuli were of two types: simples, which were easily recognizable, and novels, which were completely unrecognizable. It was found that the simples and the counted 4s evoked posteriorly distributed P3 waves while the irrelevant novels evoked large, frontally distributed P3 waves. These large, frontal P3 waves to novels were also found to be preceded by large N2 waves. These findings indicate that the P3 wave is not a unitary phenomenon but should be considered in terms of a family of waves, differing in their brain generators and in their psychological correlates.

Courchesne, E.↗

NASA NTRS1980

STS-1 operational flight profile. Volume 5: Descent cycle 3. Appendix D: GRTLS six degree of freedom Monte Carlo dispersion analysis

The results of a six degree of freedom (6-DOF) nonlinear Monte Carlo dispersion analysis for the latest glide return to landing site (GRTLS) abort trajectory for the Space Transportation System 1 Flight are presented. For this GRTLS, the number two main engine fails at 262.5 seconds ground elapsed time. Fifty randomly selected simulations, initialized at external tank separation, are analyzed. The initial covariance matrix is a 20 x 20 matrix and includes navigation errors and dispersions in position and velocity, time, accelerometer bias, and inertial platform misalinements. In all 50 samples, speedbrake, rudder, elevon, and body flap hinge moments are acceptable. Transitions to autoland begin before 9,000 feet and there are no tailscrapes. Navigation derived dynamic pressure accuracies exceed the flight control system constraints above Mach 2.5. Three out of 50 landings exceeded tire specification limit speed of 222 knots. Pilot manual landings are expected to reduce landing speed by landing farther downrange.

Montez, M. N.↗

NASA NTRS1989

The volume filling factor of the infrared cirrus IS 0.2

The filling factor of the infrared cirrus in which luminous stars are embedded is estimated. The stars are assumed to be randomly situated with respect to the cirrus. A direct ratio of the number of stars with associated cirrus emission to those which in principle could be detected indicates that the cirrus filling factor is roughly 0.2.

Van Buren, Dave↗

NASA NTRS1994

Calibration of HST wide field camera for quantitative analysis of faint galaxy images

We present the methods adopted to optimize the calibration of images obtained with the Hubble Space Telescope (HST) Wide Field Camera (WFC) (1991-1993). Our main goal is to improve quantitative measurement of faint images, with special emphasis on the faint (I approximately 20-24 mag) stars and galaxies observed as a part of the Medium-Deep Survey. Several modifications to the standard calibration procedures have been introduced, including improved bias and dark images, and a new supersky flatfield obtained by combining a large number of relatively object-free Medium-Deep Survey exposures of random fields. The supersky flat has a pixel-to-pixel rms error of about 2.0% in F555W and of 2.4% in F785LP; large-scale variations are smaller than 1% rms. Overall, our modifications improve the quality of faint images with respect to the standard calibration by about a factor of five in photometric accuracy and about 0.3 mag in sensitivity, corresponding to about a factor of two in observing time. The relevant calibration images have been made available to the scientific community.

Ratnatunga, Kavan U.↗

NASA NTRS1999

Approximation for Horizontal Photon Transport in Cloud Remote Sensing Problems

The effect of horizontal photon transport within real-world clouds can be of consequence to remote sensing problems based on plane-parallel cloud models. An analytic approximation for the root-mean-square horizontal displacement of reflected and transmitted photons relative to the incident cloud-top location is derived from random walk theory. The resulting formula is a function of the average number of photon scatterings, and particle asymmetry parameter and single scattering albedo. In turn, the average number of scatterings can be determined from efficient adding/doubling radiative transfer procedures. The approximation is applied to liquid water clouds for typical remote sensing solar spectral bands, involving both conservative and non-conservative scattering. Results compare well with Monte Carlo calculations. Though the emphasis is on horizontal photon transport in terrestrial clouds, the derived approximation is applicable to any multiple scattering plane-parallel radiative transfer problem. The complete horizontal transport probability distribution can be described with an analytic distribution specified by the root-mean-square and average displacement values. However, it is shown empirically that the average displacement can be reasonably inferred from the root-mean-square value. An estimate for the horizontal transport distribution can then be made from the root-mean-square photon displacement alone.

Plantnick, Steven↗

NASA NTRS2004

Computation of Variability in the Average Thermal and Mechanical Properties of a Melt-infiltrated Sic/sic Composite

Thermal conductivity and tensile properties (elastic modulus, proportional limit strength, inplane tensile strength, and strain to failure) of a SiC/SiC composite were experimentally determined at 816 and 1204 C. Tests were performed at room temperature on the same material to obtain interlaminar shear and tensile strength. For each thermal and mechanical property 24 tests were conducted to capture the variation. A random sampling method was used to quantify the variability exhibited by the mean values of the thermal and mechanical properties. The minimum number of tests required to characterize the mean value of each thermal or mechanical property for the composite was determined by varying the group size of the random sample.

Kalluri, Sreeramesh↗

DOE OSTI2025

Bayesian Calibration of Stochastic Agent Based Model via Random Forest

Agent-based models (ABM) provide an excellent framework for modeling outbreaks and interventions in epidemiology by explicitly accounting for diverse individual interactions and environments. However, these models are usually stochastic and highly parametrized, requiring precise calibration for predictive performance. When considering realistic numbers of agents and properly accounting for stochasticity, this high-dimensional calibration can be computationally prohibitive. This paper presents a random forest-based surrogate modeling technique to accelerate the evaluation of ABMs and demonstrates its use to calibrate an epidemiological ABM named CityCOVID via Markov chain Monte Carlo (MCMC). The technique is first outlined in the context of CityCOVID's quantities of interest, namely hospitalizations and deaths, by exploring dimensionality reduction via temporal decomposition with principal component analysis (PCA) and via sensitivity analysis. The calibration problem is then presented, and samples are generated to best match COVID-19 hospitalization and death numbers in Chicago from March to June in 2020. Further, these results are compared with previous approximate Bayesian calibration (IMABC) results, and their predictive performance is analyzed, showing improved performance with a reduction in computation.

60 APPLIED LIFE SCIENCES↗

NASA NTRS1976

Vortex noise from nonrotating cylinders and airfoils

An experimental study of vortex-shedding noise was conducted in an acoustic research tunnel over a Reynolds-number range applicable to full-scale helicopter tail-rotor blades. Two-dimensional tapered-chord nonrotating models were tested to simulate the effect of spanwise frequency variation on the vortex-shedding mechanism. Both a tapered circular cylinder and tapered airfoils were investigated. The results were compared with data for constant-diameter cylinder and constant-chord airfoil models also tested during this study. Far-field noise, surface pressure fluctuations, and spanwise correlation lengths were measured for each configuration. Vortex-shedding noise for tapered cylinders and airfoils was found to contain many narrowband-random peaks which occurred within a range of frequencies corresponding to a predictable Strouhal number referenced to the maximum and minimum chord. The noise was observed to depend on surface roughness and Reynolds number.

Schlinker, R. H.↗

NASA NTRS2011

Prioritized LT Codes

The original Luby Transform (LT) coding scheme is extended to account for data transmissions where some information symbols in a message block are more important than others. Prioritized LT codes provide unequal error protection (UEP) of data on an erasure channel by modifying the original LT encoder. The prioritized algorithm improves high-priority data protection without penalizing low-priority data recovery. Moreover, low-latency decoding is also obtained for high-priority data due to fast encoding. Prioritized LT codes only require a slight change in the original encoding algorithm, and no changes at all at the decoder. Hence, with a small complexity increase in the LT encoder, an improved UEP and low-decoding latency performance for high-priority data can be achieved. LT encoding partitions a data stream into fixed-sized message blocks each with a constant number of information symbols. To generate a code symbol from the information symbols in a message, the Robust-Soliton probability distribution is first applied in order to determine the number of information symbols to be used to compute the code symbol. Then, the specific information symbols are chosen uniform randomly from the message block. Finally, the selected information symbols are XORed to form the code symbol. The Prioritized LT code construction includes an additional restriction that code symbols formed by a relatively small number of XORed information symbols select some of these information symbols from the pool of high-priority data. Once high-priority data are fully covered, encoding continues with the conventional LT approach where code symbols are generated by selecting information symbols from the entire message block including all different priorities. Therefore, if code symbols derived from high-priority data experience an unusual high number of erasures, Prioritized LT codes can still reliably recover both high- and low-priority data. This hybrid approach decides not only "how to encode" but also "what to encode" to achieve UEP. Another advantage of the priority encoding process is that the majority of high-priority data can be decoded sooner since only a small number of code symbols are required to reconstruct high-priority data. This approach increases the likelihood that high-priority data is decoded first over low-priority data. The Prioritized LT code scheme achieves an improvement in high-priority data decoding performance as well as overall information recovery without penalizing the decoding of low-priority data, assuming high-priority data is no more than half of a message block. The cost is in the additional complexity required in the encoder. If extra computation resource is available at the transmitter, image, voice, and video transmission quality in terrestrial and space communications can benefit from accurate use of redundancy in protecting data with varying priorities.

Woo, Simon S.↗

NASA NTRS1992

Computational simulation of probabilistic lifetime strength for aerospace materials subjected to high temperature, mechanical fatigue, creep, and thermal fatigue

The results of a fourth year effort of a research program conducted for NASA-LeRC by The University of Texas at San Antonio (UTSA) are presented. The research included on-going development of methodology that provides probabilistic lifetime strength of aerospace materials via computational simulation. A probabilistic material strength degradation model, in the form of a randomized multifactor interaction equation, is postulated for strength degradation of structural components of aerospace propulsion systems subjected to a number of effects or primitive variables. These primitive variables may include high temperature, fatigue, or creep. In most cases, strength is reduced as a result of the action of a variable. This multifactor interaction strength degradation equation was randomized and is included in the computer program, PROMISC. Also included in the research is the development of methodology to calibrate the above-described constitutive equation using actual experimental materials data together with regression analysis of that data, thereby predicting values for the empirical material constants for each effect or primitive variable. This regression methodology is included in the computer program, PROMISC. Actual experimental materials data were obtained from industry and the open literature for materials typically for applications in aerospace propulsion system components. Material data for Inconel 718 was analyzed using the developed methodology.

Boyce, Lola↗