Search NASA⌕ Search

SEARCH · Search NASA

Results for “Rare events”

Search indexed NASA NTRS and DOE OSTI research on propulsion, heat transfer, battery materials and energy systems. Follow report and document links to the original sources.

Quote a phrase for an exact phrase match. Source license links do not imply unrestricted reuse.

At least 343 records · Page 19

Thirty Minutes Before the Dawn

The Trinity test of July 16, 1945, marked the scientific apex of the Manhattan Project. Often recognized as the symbolic birth of the nuclear age, Trinity’s multifaceted legacy remains just as captivating and complex today as it did 75 years ago. This paper examines why the test was necessary from a technical standpoint, shows how Los Alamos scientists planned the event, and explores the physical and emotional aftermaths of Trinity. The author also uses rarely accessed original records to reconstruct the story of Trinity’s health hazards, as seen through the eyes of radiation technicians and medical doctors as events unfolded. Trinity was conducted as the Potsdam Conference began, weeks after the collapse of Nazi Germany. It was considered necessary to let President Harry S. Truman know whether the United States possessed a nuclear capability ahead of his negotiations with Joseph Stalin, the Soviet premier. The author examines the competing priorities that drove the timetable for the test: international politics, security, and safety. Three weeks after Trinity, a gun-assembled enriched-uranium bomb called Little Boy was used against the Japanese city of Hiroshima. Three days later, Fat Man, a weaponized version of the imploding Trinity device, was dropped on Nagasaki. The author briefly examines these strikes and what impact they may have had on the Japanese surrender. The paper concludes by examining the legacy of the Trinity test 75 years into the age it helped usher in.

45 MILITARY TECHNOLOGY, WEAPONRY, AND NATIONAL DEF↗

The Extraordinary March 2022 East Antarctica “Heat” Wave. Part I: Observations and Meteorological Drivers

Abstract Between 15 and 19 March 2022, East Antarctica experienced an exceptional heat wave with widespread 30°–40°C temperature anomalies across the ice sheet. This record-shattering event saw numerous monthly temperature records being broken including a new all-time temperature record of −9.4°C on 18 March at Concordia Station despite March typically being a transition month to the Antarctic coreless winter. The driver for these temperature extremes was an intense atmospheric river advecting subtropical/midlatitude heat and moisture deep into the Antarctic interior. The scope of the temperature records spurred a large, diverse collaborative effort to study the heat wave’s meteorological drivers, impacts, and historical climate context. Here we focus on describing those temperature records along with the intricate meteorological drivers that led to the most intense atmospheric river observed over East Antarctica. These efforts describe the Rossby wave activity forced from intense tropical convection over the Indian Ocean. This led to an atmospheric river and warm conveyor belt intensification near the coastline, which reinforced atmospheric blocking deep into East Antarctica. The resulting moisture flux and upper-level warm-air advection eroded the typical surface temperature inversions over the ice sheet. At the peak of the heat wave, an area of 3.3 million km 2 in East Antarctica exceeded previous March monthly temperature records. Despite a temperature anomaly return time of about 100 years, a closer recurrence of such an event is possible under future climate projections. In Part II we describe the various impacts this extreme event had on the East Antarctic cryosphere. Significance Statement In March 2022, a heat wave and atmospheric river caused some of the highest temperature anomalies ever observed globally and captured the attention of the Antarctic science community. Using our diverse collective expertise, we explored the causes of the event and have placed it within a historical climate context. One key takeaway is that Antarctic climate extremes are highly sensitive to perturbations in the midlatitudes and subtropics. This heat wave redefined our expectations of the Antarctic climate. Despite the rare chance of occurrence based on past climate, a future temperature extreme event of similar magnitude is possible, especially given anthropogenic climate change.

Wille, Jonathan D.↗

Improved measurement of the decays η ′ → π + π − π + ( 0 ) π − ( 0 ) and search for the rare decay η ′ → 4 π 0

Using a sample of 10 billion J / ψ events collected with the BESIII detector, the decays η ′ → π + π − π + π − , η ′ → π + π − π 0 π 0 and η ′ → 4 π 0 are studied via the process J / ψ → γ η ′ . The branching fractions of η ′ → π + π − π + π − and η ′ → π + π − π 0 π 0 are measured to be ( 8.56 ± 0.25 ( stat ) ± 0.23 ( syst ) ) × 10 − 5 and ( 2.12 ± 0.12 ( stat ) ± 0.10 ( syst ) ) × 10 − 4 , respectively, which are consistent with previous measurements but with improved precision. No significant η ′ → 4 π 0 signal is observed, and the upper limit on the branching fraction of this decay is determined to be less than 1.24 × 10 − 5 at the 90% confidence level. In addition, an amplitude analysis of η ′ → π + π − π + π − is performed to extract the doubly virtual isovector form factor α for the first time. The measured value of α = 1.22 ± 0.33 ( stat ) ± 0.04 ( syst ) , is in agreement with the prediction of the vector meson dominance model. Published by the American Physical Society 2024

Astronomy & Astrophysics↗

Research in Neutrinoless Double-Beta Decay (Final Report)

The research objective of the supported work was to search for neutrinoless double-beta decay in 76 Ge and investigate and identify backgrounds to a double-beta decay search. Understanding the neutrino mass generation mechanism, the absolute neutrino mass scale, the neutrino mass spectrum, and the possible Majorana nature of neutrinos are some of the future discoveries of the next generation neutrino experiments. The Majorana collaboration operated the Demonstrator experiment comprising 44 kg (30 kg enriched in 76 Ge) of Ge detectors in total split between two modules contained in a low background shield at the Sanford Underground Research Facility in Lead, South Dakota. Observation of 0νββ would have profound implications for the Standard Model of particle physics by demonstrating that neutrinos are Majorana particles, that lepton number is not conserved, and it would provide a measure of the effective Majorana neutrino mass. The decay rate of 0νββ is incredibly small and may only produce a few signature events in a detector per year. Therefore, observation of this rare process demands a careful study and implementation of signal processing, detector design, and new levels of background suppression.

73 NUCLEAR PHYSICS AND RADIATION PHYSICS↗

Process-oriented evaluation of quasi-stationary Rossby waves and their impact on surface air temperature extremes in dynamical downscaling over North America

Quasi-stationary Rossby waves are a crucial component of the general circulation and play a significant role in regional water and energy cycles, as well as in extreme events. However, process-oriented evaluation for Rossby waves is rarely performed for dynamical downscaling simulations. To close this gap, we evaluate three classes of dynamical downscaling approaches, with a focus on quasi-stationary Rossby waves and their impact on surface air temperature over North America during Northern Hemisphere summer. The three classes of models differ in the way large-scale forcing is provided: a limited-area model (LAM) constrained only by lateral boundary conditions, represented by RegCM4 from the North American branch of the Coordinated Regional Downscaling Experiment (NA-CORDEX), a LAM with spectral nudging to maintain consistency in large-scale dynamics with the forcing data, represented by the Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF) model simulation in NA-CORDEX, and a global variable-resolution model with smoothly varying grid spacings, represented by the Community Atmosphere Model version 5.4, with the Model for Prediction Across Scales (MPAS) as its dynamical core (CAM-MPAS). With no constraints on the atmospheric dynamics, CAM-MPAS exhibits several mean biases in the upper-level circulations over the Pacific Coast region: a weaker subtropical jet, a northward-shifted mid-latitude jet, and an overestimated southerly flow. With the lateral boundary constraint alone, RegCM4 also exhibits weaker jets and overestimated southerly winds off the West Coast. Rossby ray theory reveals that those wind biases direct incoming Rossby waves northward. The erroneously routed Rossby waves distort the relationship between the accumulation of wave activity over the US West Coast and surface temperature anomalies over the Southern Great Plains, which emerges approximately 4 d after the convergence of wave-activity flux in the ERA-Interim reanalysis. Furthermore, the response of heatwaves to the extreme wave activity flux is not reproduced by the two models, a serious drawback as a dynamical downscaling framework is expected to connect large-scale forcing to local-scale phenomena. The WRF model employing spectral nudging is largely free from the aforementioned problems. A pair of sensitivity simulations suggests that spectral nudging is the key to improving the dynamics of quasi-stationary Rossby waves and their impact on surface air temperature. Our results also demonstrate the effectiveness of Rossby wave diagnostics that allow for realistic background flows for assessing the credibility of dynamical downscaling over North America, where incoming Rossby waves propagate through complex circulation patterns before traveling across the continent.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

Overcoming Communications Outages in Inverter Downtime Analysis: Preprint

Inverters are often reported to be the highest-impact failure point in PV systems. This importance is belied by the simplistic assumptions about inverter downtime losses used in industrial energy modeling. Energy models often assume the extent of inverter-related losses is limited to 1% of annual production from scheduled inverter preventative maintenance. In reality, inverter-related production losses are much more variable, although data from large-scale surveys of fielded systems are rare. Here we present a method of detecting inverter downtime events and estimating the associated lost production using inverter- and meter-level power data. Because communications outages are of similar frequency to true production outages, the method pays particular attention to distinguishing communications outages from true production outages. The results of applying the method at fleet-scale are presented and discussed.

41 EE - Solar Energy Technologies Office (EE-4S)↗

Measurement of the very rare K+ → $ {\pi}^{+}\nu \overline{\nu} $ decay

The NA62 experiment reports the branching ratio measurement BR K + → π + ν ν ¯ = 10.6 - 3.4 + 4.0 stat ± 0.9 syst × 10 - 11 at 68% CL, based on the observation of 20 signal candidates with an expected background of 7.0 events from the total data sample collected at the CERN SPS during 2016–2018. This provides evidence for the very rare K + → π + ν ν ¯ decay, observed with a significance of 3.4 σ . The experiment achieves a single event sensitivity of (0 . 839 ± 0 . 054) × 10 - 11 , corresponding to 10.0 events assuming the Standard Model branching ratio of (8 . 4 ± 1 . 0) × 10 - 11 . This measurement is also used to set limits on BR( K + → π + X ), where X is a scalar or pseudo-scalar particle. Details are given of the analysis of the 2018 data sample, which corresponds to about 80% of the total data sample.

72 PHYSICS OF ELEMENTARY PARTICLES AND FIELDS↗

“Godzilla,” the Extreme African Dust Event of June 2020: Origins, Transport, and Impact on Air Quality in the Greater Caribbean Basin

In June 2020, the tropical Atlantic and the Caribbean Basin were affected by a series of African dust outbreaks unprecedented in size and intensity. These events, informally named “Godzilla,” coincided with CALIMA, a large field campaign, offering a rare opportunity to assess the impact of African dust on air quality in the Greater Caribbean Basin. Network measurements of respirable particles (i.e., PM 10 and PM 2.5 ) showed that dust significantly degraded regional air quality and increased the risk to public health in the Caribbean, the southern United States, northern South America, and Central America. CALIMA examined the meteorological context of Godzilla dust events over North Africa and how these conditions might relate to the greatly increased dust emissions and enhanced transport to the Americas. Godzilla was linked to strong pressure anomalies over West Africa, resulting in a large-scale geostrophic wind anomaly at 700 hPa over North Africa. We used surface-based and columnar measurements to test the performance of two frequently used aerosol forecast models: the NASA Goddard Earth Observing System (GEOS) and Weather Research and Forecasting Model coupled with Chemistry (WRF-Chem) models. The models showed some skills but differed substantially between their forecasts, suggesting large uncertainties in these forecasts that are critical for issuing early warnings of health-threatening dust events. Our results demonstrate the value of an integrated approach in characterizing the spatial and temporal variability of African dust transport and assessing its impact on regional air quality. Future studies are needed to improve models and to track the long-term changes in dust transport from Africa under a changing climate.

Aerosols/particulates↗

The Number and Pattern of Viral Genomic Reassortments are not Necessarily Identifiable from Segment Trees

Reassortment is an evolutionary process common in viruses with segmented genomes. These viruses can swap whole genomic segments during cellular co-infection, giving rise to novel progeny formed from the mixture of parental segments. Since large-scale genome rearrangements have the potential to generate new phenotypes, reassortment is important to both evolutionary biology and public health research. However, statistical inference of the pattern of reassortment events from phylogenetic data is exceptionally difficult, potentially involving inference of general graphs in which individual segment trees are embedded. In this paper, we argue that, in general, the number and pattern of reassortment events are not identifiable from segment trees alone, even with theoretically ideal data. We call this fact the fundamental problem of reassortment, which we illustrate using the concept of the “first-infection tree,” a potentially counterfactual genealogy that would have been observed in the segment trees had no reassortment occurred. Further, we illustrate four additional problems that can arise logically in the inference of reassortment events and show, using simulated data, that these problems are not rare and can potentially distort our observation of reassortment even in small data sets. Finally, we discuss how existing methods can be augmented or adapted to account for not only the fundamental problem of reassortment, but also the four additional situations that can complicate the inference of reassortment.

59 BASIC BIOLOGICAL SCIENCES↗

Analysis of Correlation between Cold Weather Meteorological Variables and Electricity Outages

The significance of the impact of weather on the electric grid has grown as climate change continues to increase the frequency and intensity of extreme weather events. In recent years (2021-2022) in particular, extreme winter weather has affected the grid in locations in the US rarely exposed to extreme low temperatures, snow and icing conditions. Here we analyze the correlation between cold weather meteorological variables and electricity outages during two large winter storm events, Uri (February 2021) and Landon (February 2022) using Random Forest machine learning and Pearson’s correlation coefficient. Our geographical focus across the two storms is the state of Texas. Extrapolation of the method to winter weather impacts over other years and additional locations is proposed.

Dumas, Melissa↗

Dissipative Reactions with Intermediate-Energy Beams: A Novel Approach to Populate Complex-Structure States in Rare Isotopes

A novel pathway for the formation of multiparticle-multihole excited states in rare isotopes is reported from highly energy- and momentum-dissipative inelastic-scattering events measured in reactions of an intermediate-energy beam of 38 Ca on a Be target. The negative-parity, complex-structure final states in 38 Ca are observed following the in-beam γ-ray spectroscopy of events in the 9 Be( 38 Ca, 38 Ca + γ)X reaction in which the scattered projectile loses longitudinal momentum of order Δp || = 700 MeV/c. Here, the characteristics of the observed final states are discussed and found to be consistent with the formation of excited states involving the rearrangement of multiple nucleons in a single, highly energetic projectile-target collision. Unlike the far-less-dissipative, surface-grazing reactions usually exploited for the in-beam γ-ray spectroscopy of rare isotopes, these more energetic collisions appear to offer a practical pathway to nuclear-structure studies of more complex multiparticle configurations in rare isotopes—final states conventionally thought to be out of reach with high-luminosity fast-beam-induced reactions.

73 NUCLEAR PHYSICS AND RADIATION PHYSICS↗

Hyporheic Oxygen Dynamics in the East River, Colorado: Insights From an In–Situ, High Frequency Time Series During Two Distinct Flow Seasons

Dissolved oxygen (DO) is critical for aquatic ecosystems, however, few studies have focused on the long-term DO dynamics in hyporheic zones, which are a function of both transport (hydrologic exchange between river and hyporheic zone) and uptake by biogeochemical reactions or respiration. We explore the dynamics of temperature and DO at 10, 20, and 35 cm depth beneath the East River, Colorado, from July–October 2017 (relatively normal water year) and April to October 2018 (comparatively low flow year), enabled by distinctive, in-situ, high frequency (Δt = 5 min) sensors that provided continuous time-series from the undisturbed study site over 14 months. We expect that hyporheic DO, which has a regular daily fluctuation pattern, is supplied by the surface water (at all times we estimate downwelling) and that diurnal hyporheic DO temporal patterns should be aligned with diurnal hyporheic temperature patterns. However, this was not found to be the case. Hyporheic DO becomes depleted briefly at 20 and 35 cm depths in 2017, and at all three hyporheic depths for extended periods in 2018. Whereas diurnal temperature fluctuations have consistent timings of maxima and minima, hyporheic DO rarely has as regular a pattern, and daily ranges are inconsistent. Rainfall events caused some of these changes to diurnal hyporheic DO patterns without repeatable effects. Antecedent snowpack conditions influence streamflow dynamics and therefore hyporheic DO dynamics in this alpine river. These results also point to the strong and variable influence of hyporheic microbial communities regulating hyporheic DO.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

Legacy effects of drought on tree growth responses to hurricanes

Natural perturbations, including hurricanes and severe droughts, are becoming more frequent and intense in the tropics, yet our understanding of forest responses to these events is still limited. While the relationships between extreme climatic events and tree mortality are frequently studied, responses of trees that survived such perturbations have been rarely reported. Perturbations and their effects can be quite variable, and trees can respond both positively and negatively to them, depending on their sensitivity and opportunistic behavior. Understanding the potential variation in responses both within and among species is important for building predictions of forest responses. We studied tree growth responses (i.e., changes relative to standard conditions) to hurricanes and drought events in Puerto Rico across six common and broadly distributed species. We examined whether there is a congruence in responses to these contrasting extreme climatic events. We show that trees are particularly susceptible to droughts but display a wide range of responses to hurricanes. Despite the high stochasticity in the impacts of hurricanes, trees that showed reduced growth during previous droughts tend to show reduced growth during the hurricanes as well. Our results demonstrate that trees subjected to different and successive major climatic stresses have consistent declines in their performance. Projected increases in the severity of droughts and tropical storms could have an accumulated, and possibly compound, impact on tree growth. Long-term demographic studies are necessary to understand legacy effects of species responses to extreme climatic perturbations.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

Search for the Rare Decay 𝐷 0 → 𝜇 + ⁢𝜇 − in Proton-Proton Collisions at $\sqrt{s}$ = 13.6 TeV

A search for the rare decay 𝐷 0 → 𝜇 + ⁢𝜇 − is reported using proton-proton collision events at $\sqrt{s}$ =13.6 TeV collected by the CMS detector in 2022–2023, corresponding to an integrated luminosity of 64.5 fb −1 . This is the first analysis to use a newly developed inclusive dimuon trigger, expanding the scope of the CMS flavor physics program. The search uses 𝐷 0 mesons obtained from 𝐷* + → 𝐷 0 ⁢𝜋 + decays. No significant excess is observed. A limit on the branching fraction of ℬ⁡(𝐷 0 → 𝜇 + ⁢𝜇 − ) < 2.4 × 10 −9 at 95% confidence level is set. This is the most stringent upper limit set on any flavor changing neutral current decay in the charm sector.

Charmed mesons↗

Spring Dust in Colorado Plateau: Transport Pathways and Interannual Variability Derived From Two Decades of MERRA‐2 Reanalysis

Spring dust storms in the U.S. Southwest significantly impact environmental and human systems, yet their climatological patterns and driving mechanisms remain poorly understood. Using two decades of MERRA-2 reanalysis data and self-organizing map clustering, we identified four distinct dust transport pathways from surrounding and remote deserts for the top 10% of spring dust events impacting the Colorado Plateau: (a) intense southwesterly near-surface transport where eastward upward transport is blocked by topography, (b) substantial remote transport plus weaker surface emissions, (c) moderate southwesterly transport with stronger upper-level transport, and (d) rare northwesterly pattern linked to the Great Basin sources, which accounts for 38%, 14%, 37%, and 11% of total events, respectively. The frequency and intensity of these events strongly correlate with large-scale climate variability, with increased dust events during La Niña. Our results provide a robust framework for improving seasonal dust forecasts and understanding future dust dynamics under climate change.

aerosol transport↗

Optimizing infrasound observations for sample return capsule re-entry: Insights from OSIRIS-REx and Hayabusa2

The atmospheric entry of meteoroids presents a rare and unpredictable phenomenon, posing challenges for systematic observation and detailed characterization. Such events are nonetheless critical for advancing understanding of acoustic wave propagation, atmospheric structure, and entry dynamics. In contrast, sample return capsules (SRCs) from space missions follow well constrained re-entry trajectories, enabling planned observations of shock wave generation and propagation under controlled conditions. This study compares two SRC atmospheric entries, Hayabusa2 in 2020 and OSIRIS-REx in 2023, to assess how different infrasound array configurations influence shock wave detection and trajectory validation. Hayabusa2’s re-entry was monitored using a distributed network of 28 portable infrasound sensors across seven arrays in Woomera, Australia, permitting three-dimensional reconstruction of the trajectory and analysis of wave characteristics. For OSIRIS-REx, a compact four-sensor array deployed near Eureka Airport provided trajectory confirmation through arrival-time differences and back-azimuth estimates. Spectral and waveform analyses revealed differences in signal properties associated with variations in entry angle and velocity. The results illustrate both the strengths and the limitations of the deployed array configurations. The dense and distributed arrays during Hayabusa2’s re-entry enabled detailed trajectory reconstruction, whereas the compact array at Eureka primarily provided confirmation of signal coherence and back-azimuth consistency. These case studies highlight that even relatively small arrays, if located close to the predicted ground track, can still capture useful information on arrival direction and timing. Such insights provide practical guidance for planning future observational campaigns of SRC returns and other controlled atmospheric entries, and may also inform approaches to opportunistic observations of meteoroid events and other atmospheric acoustic phenomena.

celestial mechanics: orbit determination↗

Axionlike particles and sterile neutrinos solve the 𝐵 → 𝐾⁢$𝜈⁢\bar{𝜈}$ and 𝐵 → 𝜋⁢𝐾 puzzles

The recent measurement of the branching ratio of 𝐵 + → 𝐾 + +inv (where “inv” denotes invisible states) by the Belle II Collaboration is enhanced relative to the standard model expectation by 2.7⁢𝜎. An older puzzle persists in measurements of the branching ratios and 𝐶⁢𝑃 asymmetries of 𝐵 → 𝜋⁢𝐾 decays. We address these two anomalies in flavor-changing neutral current 𝐵 decays, with a short-lived axionlike particle (ALP) with mass close to that of the 𝜋 0 . In the model with the minimum number of new couplings, the ALP has couplings to the photon, top quark and a heavy sterile neutrino. The ALP contributes to the 𝐵 → 𝜋 0 ⁢𝐾 decays by mixing with the 𝜋 0 . It contributes to 𝐵 + → 𝐾 + + inv by its off-shell coupling to sterile neutrino pairs. The model can explain the excess in the total rate, but not the observed distribution of signal events. We make predictions for all 𝐵 → 𝐾 (*) + inv modes and for the rare kaon decays, 𝐾 + → 𝜋 + + inv and 𝐾 𝐿 → 𝜋 0 + inv. We find an appreciable contribution to the magnetic moment of the muon, and negligible contributions to the magnetic moment of the electron and 𝑏 → 𝑠⁢𝑒 + ⁢𝑒 − .

axion-like particles↗

Measurement of the Muon Flux at the Sanford Underground Research Facility with the LUX-ZEPLIN Dark Matter Detector

High-energy cosmic-ray muons reaching deep underground laboratories can cause events in detectors that mimic signals expected from dark matter particles, neutrinos, or rare decays. Knowledge of the muon flux and energy spectrum is important for evaluating the background rate caused by muons and their secondaries. In this paper, we report the measurement of the cosmic-ray muon flux in the Davis Campus of the Sanford Underground Research Facility with the LUX-ZEPLIN detector. Using 366.4~days of exposure, the muon rate through the detector was measured as $10.94\pm0.17_\textrm{stat.}~\textrm{day}^{-1}$ with energy thresholds of 20~MeV in the inner xenon detector and 8 MeV in the outer liquid scintillator detector. This rate corresponds to a muon flux of $(5.09\pm0.08_\textrm{stat.}\pm0.10_\textrm{sys.})\times10^{-9}~\textrm{cm}^{-2}\textrm{s}^{-1}$ in the Davis Cavern.

Akerib, D. S. [SLAC; Stanford U., Phys. Dept.; KIP↗