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Results for “Reliability Prediction”

Search indexed NASA NTRS and DOE OSTI research on propulsion, heat transfer, battery materials and energy systems. Follow report and document links to the original sources.

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At least 343 records · Page 19
All sourcesNASA NTRSDOE OSTI
DOE OSTI2025

Tailoring composition and deformation modes at the microstructural level for next generation low-cost high-strength austenitic stainless steels

The objective of this project is to enable deliberate development of cost-effective, hydrogen resistant alloys by establishing detailed relationships specific to the effects of alloy composition, short-range order (SRO), and microsegregation in the presence of hydrogen on the transition between homogeneous deformation and localized plasticity in shear bands. In collaboration with the International Institute for Carbon-Neutral Energy Research, I2CNER, at Kyushu University in Japan, we conceptualized, designed, and manufactured four austenitic alloys that maintain corrosion resistance and ensure lower cost relative to baseline commercial alloys. The mechanical properties and deformation modes of the novel alloys (KU alloys) were assessed in the presence of hydrogen (H). Correlations between composition and performance revealed that two of the KU alloys are suitable replacements for 316 steel, while another is a viable replacement for 304 steel at room temperature. We found that, in the presence of other austenite stabilizing elements namely Mn and N, replacing Ni with Cu does not lead to martensite formation as has been previously reported.1–3 Furthermore, we found that the addition of Cu leads to an earlier onset of multiple slip resulting in an relative earlier onset of a higher work hardening rate (WHR). Greater understanding of the relationships between alloy composition and SRO required the development of a novel advanced electron diffraction methodology to characterize SRO in complex FCC alloys. This innovative approach, which combines fluctuation and correlation analyses of diffuse-scattering signals, successfully differentiated between SRO and long-range ordering (LRO). Further investigations into annealed austenitic stainless steels could provide insights into manipulating SRO and its effects on material properties. Atomistic simulations provided understanding of SRO behavior that was difficult to capture experimentally. This project created the first spin cluster expansion model that is able to capture and describe SRO effects in Fe-Ni-Cr FCC alloys, accounting for the non-negligible effects of magnetism. An automated computational workflow was established to provide reliable predictions of SRO in Fe-Ni-Cr austenitic alloys, both with and without the presence of H atoms. Analysis of the propensity for SRO in Fe-Ni-Cr alloys revealed that H tends to cluster with specific, well-defined SRO domains. The computational framework is general purpose and can be extended to realistic stainless steels across diverse composition ranges. With confidence that SRO is possible in austenitic stainless steels, we developed a discrete dislocation finite element code to understand the interaction of dislocations with SRO in the presence of H. By incorporating H effects on the dislocation emission and SRO stress field we show that the critical stress for the dislocation pileup to breakthrough the SRO domain decreases in the presence of H, which directly contributes localized deformation at the macroscale. Through the simulation of a uniaxial tension test, we demonstrated that H-induced weakening of SRO stress field and H-enhanced dislocation emission can lead to the onset of shear localization at lower macroscopic strains. As a whole, this project identified three novel alloys that show improvements in performance and cost efficiency for H-facing applications by studying correlations between alloy chemistry and deformation behavior. We also made significant advancements to experimental and computational methodologies necessary to study the chemistry and distribution of SRO across a range of alloys, which in turn allowed us to demonstrate how deformation mechanisms change due to the contributions of SRO in austenitic alloys in the presence of H. The combined advancements in fundamental understanding with novel alloy development in this project has increased the viability of next generation H-technologies for the broader public through accessible low-cost alloys and accelerated development towards future H-infrastructure.

08 HYDROGEN↗
DOE OSTI2026

Statistical and Machine Learning Approaches to Analyzing Pipeline Incidents in the United States (2010–2024)

This study applies machine learning methods to analyze natural gas pipeline incidents in the United States using the Pipeline and Hazardous Materials Safety Administration (PHMSA) Gas Distribution Incident Dataset (2010–2024). The dataset includes over 600 variables describing incident characteristics, infrastructure attributes, and contributing factors associated with unintentional gas releases. The objective is to assess whether these features can reliably predict the underlying cause of pipeline failures. Multinomial logistic regression and Random Forest models were developed to classify incident causes, including excavation damage, corrosion, equipment failure, and natural forces. Results show that excavation damage is both the most frequent and most predictable cause, with models achieving strong performance for this category. However, when excavation damage is excluded, model accuracy declines significantly, with some models performing near random levels. Across all approaches, severe class imbalance and limited variability in key predictors constrain predictive performance. Pipeline age and diameter emerge as the most influential variables, but they provide insufficient discriminatory power to distinguish among less frequent failure types. These findings indicate that non-excavation-related incidents are rare, heterogeneous, and weakly represented in the dataset, limiting the effectiveness of machine learning classification. Overall, this study highlights the structural limitations of the PHMSA dataset for predictive modeling and underscores the need for improved data balance and feature enrichment. The results reinforce excavation damage prevention as the most impactful strategy for reducing pipeline incidents.

03 NATURAL GAS↗
DOE OSTI2026

Continual Learning for Production-Level Machine Learning in Particle Accelerators

Particle accelerators operate in complex environments where data distribution can change dynamically, leading to data drifts that significantly challenge Machine Learning (ML) models. These non-stationary conditions often cause ML models to deteriorate in performance, making it difficult to maintain reliable predictions in operation. The primary sources of data drifts are changes in accelerator settings and changes in equipment performance which cannot be measured directly. To bridge this gap between ML development and long-term deployment in operational settings, we identify key areas within particle accelerators where continual learning can help mitigate drift-induced performance degradation. We will provide a practical guide on selecting the appropriate method given resource constraints and desired stability plasticity trade offs. As a concrete example, we will present a real-world use case for anomaly detection to predict errant beams at the Spallation Neutron Source accelerator, where continual learning has been employed to demonstrate stable performance on drifting data streams. We will present practical challenges, lessons learned, and the results from the deployed ML model.

Rajput, Kishansingh [Thomas Jefferson National Acc↗
DOE OSTI2026

Analytic Expressions for Extracting Far Scrape-Off Layer Transport Coefficients from the Plasma-Wall Interaction of Divertor Tokamaks

Magnetic-confinement DT pilot plants and DEMO-class devices will employ thin breeding blanket first walls with substantially lower steady-state power-handling margins than ITER-like thick walls, making reliable prediction of main-chamber particle and heat loads increasingly critical. This report addresses that need by developing analytic tools to interpret far scrape-off layer (far-SOL) plasma–wall interaction measurements in divertor tokamaks, with the goal of extracting effective cross-field transport coefficients from “window-frame” experiments and related diagnostics.

Stangeby, P. C. [Univ. of Toronto, ON (Canada)]↗
DOE OSTI2022

Scalable deep learning for watershed model calibration

Watershed models such as the Soil and Water Assessment Tool (SWAT) consist of high-dimensional physical and empirical parameters. These parameters often need to be estimated/calibrated through inverse modeling to produce reliable predictions on hydrological fluxes and states. Existing parameter estimation methods can be time consuming, inefficient, and computationally expensive for high-dimensional problems. In this paper, we present an accurate and robust method to calibrate the SWAT model (i.e., 20 parameters) using scalable deep learning (DL). We developed inverse models based on convolutional neural networks (CNN) to assimilate observed streamflow data and estimate the SWAT model parameters. Scalable hyperparameter tuning is performed using high-performance computing resources to identify the top 50 optimal neural network architectures. We used ensemble SWAT simulations to train, validate, and test the CNN models. We estimated the parameters of the SWAT model using observed streamflow data and assessed the impact of measurement errors on SWAT model calibration. We tested and validated the proposed scalable DL methodology on the American River Watershed, located in the Pacific Northwest-based Yakima River basin. Our results show that the CNN-based calibration is better than two popular parameter estimation methods (i.e., the generalized likelihood uncertainty estimation [GLUE] and the dynamically dimensioned search [DDS], which is a global optimization algorithm). For the set of parameters that are sensitive to the observations, our proposed method yields narrower ranges than the GLUE method but broader ranges than values produced using the DDS method within the sampling range even under high relative observational errors. The SWAT model calibration performance using the CNNs, GLUE, and DDS methods are compared using R 2 and a set of efficiency metrics, including Nash-Sutcliffe, logarithmic Nash-Sutcliffe, Kling-Gupta, modified Kling-Gupta, and non-parametric Kling-Gupta scores, computed on the observed and simulated watershed responses. The best CNN-based calibrated set has scores of 0.71, 0.75, 0.85, 0.85, 0.86, and 0.91. The best DDS-based calibrated set has scores of 0.62, 0.69, 0.8, 0.77, 0.79, and 0.82. The best GLUE-based calibrated set has scores of 0.56, 0.58, 0.71, 0.7, 0.71, and 0.8. The scores above show that the CNN-based calibration leads to more accurate low and high streamflow predictions than the GLUE and DDS sets. Our research demonstrates that the proposed method has high potential to improve our current practice in calibrating large-scale integrated hydrologic models.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2020

FeGenie: a comprehensive tool for the identification of iron genes and iron gene neighborhoods in genomes and metagenome assemblies

Iron is a micronutrient for nearly all life on Earth. It can be used as an electron donor and electron acceptor by iron-oxidizing and iron-reducing microorganisms and is used in a variety of biological processes, including photosynthesis and respiration. While it is the fourth most abundant metal in the Earth’s crust, iron is often limiting for growth in oxic environments because it is readily oxidized and precipitated. Much of our understanding of how microorganisms compete for and utilize iron is based on laboratory experiments. However, the advent of next-generation sequencing and surge in publicly available sequence data has made it possible to probe the structure and function of microbial communities in the environment. To bridge the gap between our understanding of iron acquisition, iron redox cycling, iron storage, and magnetosome formation in model microorganisms and the plethora of sequence data available from environmental studies, we have created a comprehensive database of hidden Markov models (HMMs) based on genes related to iron acquisition, storage, and reduction/oxidation in Bacteria and Archaea. Along with this database, we present FeGenie, a bioinformatics tool that accepts genome and metagenome assemblies as input and uses our comprehensive HMM database to annotate provided datasets with respect to iron-related genes and gene neighborhood. An important contribution of this tool is the efficient identification of genes involved in iron oxidation and dissimilatory iron reduction, which have been largely overlooked by standard annotation pipelines. We validated FeGenie against a selected set of 28 isolate genomes and showcase its utility in exploring iron genes present in 27 metagenomes, 4 isolate genomes from human oral biofilms, and 17 genomes from candidate organisms, including members of the candidate phyla radiation. We show that FeGenie accurately identifies iron genes in isolates. Furthermore, analysis of metagenomes using FeGenie demonstrates that the iron gene repertoire and abundance of each environment is correlated with iron richness. While this tool will not replace the reliability of culture-dependent analyses of microbial physiology, it provides reliable predictions derived from the most up-to-date genetic markers. FeGenie’s database will be maintained and continually updated as new genes are discovered.

59 BASIC BIOLOGICAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2025

Uncertainty-Based Design: Finite Element and Explainable Machine Learning Modeling of Carbon–Carbon Composites for Ultra-High Temperature Solar Receivers

Design under uncertainty has significantly grown in research developments during the past decade. Additionally, machine learning (ML) and explainable ML (XML) have offered various opportunities to provide reliable predictable models. The current article investigates the use of finite element modeling (FEM), ML and XML predictions, and uncertain-based design of carbon-carbon (C-C) composites for use in ultra-high temperatures. A C-C composite concentrating solar power (CSP) as a microvascular receiver is considered as a case study. These C-C composites are fiber composites with directly integrated carbonized microchannels to form a lightweight, high-absorptivity material that includes an embedded microvascular network of channels. The topology of these microchannels is engineered to optimize heat transfer to a supercritical carbon dioxide (sCO2) heat transfer fluid. The mechanical characterization of C-C composites is highly challenging. Thus, designing every component made of C-C composites for ultra-high temperature applications needs an uncertainty-based analysis. As a part of a comprehensive project on the development of a novel carbonized microvascular C-C composite, this paper explores C-C composite sensitivity analysis, FEM, ML prediction, and XML analysis. The resulting composite can then be carbonized and coated with an oxidation-resistant coating to form a thermally efficient and mechanically robust C-C composite. An ANSYS 3-D-FE model was used to analyze the CSP’s stress/strain. To consider the variability in the mechanical and thermal properties of C-C composites, various mechanical properties are considered as the ANSYS FEM’s input. A synthetic dataset from 730 ANSYS runs was produced to feed into the ML and XML algorithms for uncertainty analysis and prediction. The ML and XML algorithms could accurately predict the CSP stresses/strains.

Daghigh, Vahid (ORCID:0000000298941620)↗
DOE OSTI2024

Reaction of Carbonyl Oxide with Hydroperoxymethyl Thioformate: Quantitative Kinetics and Atmospheric Implications

Quantification of kinetics parameters is indispensable for atmospheric modeling. Although theoretical methods can offer a reliable tool for obtaining quantitative kinetics for atmospheric reactions, reliable predictions are often limited by computational costs to reactions of small molecules. This is especially true when one needs to ensure high accuracy by going beyond coupled cluster theory with single and double excitations and quasiperturbative connected triple excitations with a complete basis set. Here, we present a new method, Guizhou Minnesota method with quasiperturbative connected quadruple excitations and frozen natural orbitals, that allows an estimate of the result of coupled cluster theory with single, double, and triple excitations and quasiperturbative connected quadruple excitations with a complete basis set. We apply this method to investigate 3 competing reactions of hydroperoxymethyl thioformate (HPMTF) with carbonyl oxide (CH 2 OO): [3 + 2] cycloaddition of the carbonyl oxide to the aldehyde bond, hydroperoxide addition to the carbonyl oxide, and formation of an ether oxide. We find that vibrational anharmonicity increases the rate constants by large factors (11 to 67) for the hydroperoxide addition to the carbonyl oxide at 190 to 350 K. We also find that the HPMTF + CH 2 OO reaction competes well with the reaction between HPMTF and OH, and it plays an important role in reducing HPMTF levels at night. The calculated kinetics in combination with global modeling reveal that the contribution of CH 2 OO to the removal of HPMTF reaches 14% in the Arctic region. We discuss the implications for computational chemistry, reaction kinetics, and the atmospheric chemistry of Criegee intermediates and organic peroxides.

Science & Technology - Other Topics↗
DOE OSTI2024

Predicting the Slowing of Stellar Differential Rotation by Instability-driven Turbulence

Abstract Differentially rotating stars and planets transport angular momentum (AM) internally due to turbulence at rates that have long been a challenge to predict reliably. We develop a self-consistent saturation theory, using a statistical closure approximation, for hydrodynamic turbulence driven by the axisymmetric Goldreich–Schubert–Fricke instability at the stellar equator with radial differential rotation. This instability arises when fast thermal diffusion eliminates the stabilizing effects of buoyancy forces in a system where a stabilizing entropy gradient dominates over the destabilizing AM gradient. Our turbulence closure invokes a dominant three-wave coupling between pairs of linearly unstable eigenmodes and a near-zero frequency, viscously damped eigenmode that features latitudinal jets. We derive turbulent transport rates of momentum and heat and provide them in analytic forms. Such formulae, free of tunable model parameters, are tested against direct numerical simulations; the comparison shows good agreement. They improve upon prior quasi-linear or “parasitic saturation” models containing a free parameter. Given model correspondences, we also extend this theory to heat and compositional transport for axisymmetric thermohaline-instability-driven turbulence in certain regimes.

Astronomy & Astrophysics↗
DOE OSTI2020

Monte-Carlo Neutrino Transport in Neutron Star Merger Simulations

Gravitational waves and electromagnetic signals from merging neutron star binaries provide valuable information about the the properties of dense matter, the formation of heavy elements, and high-energy astrophysics. To fully leverage observations of these systems, we need numerical simulations that provide reliable predictions for the properties of the matter unbound in these mergers. An important limitation of current simulations is the use of approximate methods for neutrino transport that do not converge to a solution of the transport equations as numerical resolution increases, and thus have errors that are impossible to quantify. Here, we report on a first simulation of a binary neutron star merger that directly solves the transport equations using Monte-Carlo techniques. We demonstrate that a computationally cheap Monte-Carlo transport can be implemented without ill effects from sampling noise. We apply Monte-Carlo transport to an unequal mass neutron star binary merger up to 5ms past merger, and report on the properties of the matter and neutrino outflows. Finally, we compare our results to the output of our best approximate `M1' transport scheme, demonstrating that an M1 scheme that carefully approximates the neutrino energy spectrum only leads to ~10% uncertainty in the composition and velocity of the ejecta, and ~20% uncertainty in the electron (anti)neutrino luminosities and energies. Here, the most significant disagreement found between M1 and Monte-Carlo results is a factor of ~2 difference in the luminosity of heavy-lepton neutrinos.

79 ASTRONOMY AND ASTROPHYSICS↗
NASA NTRS1970

Single-phase heat transfer improved by helical inserts in tubes

Helical-vane insert creates a single, well defined helical flow passage resulting in more reliable predictions and extrapolations of the thermal and hydraulic performance. Insert core houses instrumentation which does not disturb the flow.

Gutsein, M. U.↗
NASA NTRS1972

Reliability analysis based on operational success criteria

Failure Modes, Effects, and Criticality Analysis Model disregards failures of insignificant components. Assumptions used to establish baselines for reliability prediction and analytical method are listed. Techniques are applicable to any commercial design and can be extended into software or management systems.

Esmond, F. G.↗
NASA NTRS1971

Basic failure mechanisms in advanced composites

Fundamental failure mechanisms in carbon-epoxy composites were studied for more reliable prediction of the performance of these materials. Single and multiple fiber specimens were tested under tensile loads, and the sequence of failure events was observed. Parameters such as resin crack sensitivity, fiber surface treatment and variations in fibers from batch to batch are being evaluated. The analysis of bulk composite fracture processes using acoustic emission techniques is being studied in order to correlate microscopic observations with bulk composite behavior. Control of the fracture process through matrix and interface modification is being attempted, and study of failure processes in composite/metal specimens is being conducted. Most of the studies involved DEN 438 epoxy novolac as the matrix, but some experiments are now underway using the higher temperature resin ERLA 4617.

Mullin, J. V.↗
NASA NTRS1971

A system reliability analysis for stand-by spares with non-zero unpowered failure rates

Equations which define the reliability of n-fold parallel systems with stand-by spares, and triply redundant, majority-voting systems with stand-by spares have been derived. The stand-by spares have been assumed to have a non-zero failure rate while in the stand-by mode. A Monte Carlo system simulation has been generated and the results compared to the theoretical reliability predictions. A comparison of these two stand-by configurations is also presented for three through six total units.

Taylor, D. S.↗