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At least 343 records · Page 19

Overview of Quantum Sensing Materials and Techniques for Energy Sector Applications

The energy sector is dependent upon highly sensitive sensing devices for a wide range of applications. Variables such as temperature, pH, electromagnetic fields, and pressure must be measured with high precision, often in harsh conditions (e.g. high temperature, pressure and humidity). These sensors are deployed in infrastructure such as transformers, pipelines, mines, nuclear power plants, and other areas to ensure safe operating conditions and uninterrupted, optimized service. Moreover, new opportunities for sensors have emerged due to the expansion of smart grids/meters, driverless vehicles, and the discovery of new oil/gas deposits. The continued maturation of quantum sensors offers exciting opportunities for quantum-enhanced measurements to improve sensitivity beyond the classical limit. Here, an overview of established and emerging quantum materials and methods for sensing applications will be provided. Opportunities within the energy sector for quantum sensors will then be analyzed, including oil/gas discovery, greenhouse gas emission monitoring, pH and ion sensing, current measurements, and quantum-enhanced spectroscopy, along with barriers such as quantum sensor platform miniaturization and ruggedization. A specific project at the National Energy Technology Laboratory involving the functionalization of qubits using metal-organic frameworks for enhanced quantum sensing will then be highlighted. Here, nitrogen vacancy centers (NV) in nanodiamonds, a commercially available qubit with long coherence times and utilizable quantum properties at room temperature, are encapsulated using the metal-organic framework ZIF-8. Significantly, the ZIF-8 coating increases the longitudinal spin relaxation lifetime of the NV centers, an important parameter for spin relaxometry-based quantum sensing experiments. These results demonstrate the importance of qubit functionalization as a crucial step for rationally designing high performance quantum sensors.

Crawford, Scott↗

Cross-cutting strategies to lower electricity use of miscellaneous electric loads in the domestic sector

Miscellaneous Electric Loads (MELs) account for roughly one quarter of building electricity use in most developed countries. A product-specific approach to lowering MELs electricity use in this category takes too long and costs too much because there are so many MELs, each providing unique services. An alternative approach focusing on key functionalities was therefore explored. These functionalities include: (1) power management, (2) power scaling, and (3) power conversion. Cross-cutting efficiency improvements to these functionalities can be incorporated into broad categories of MELs, thus saving electricity and lowering costs. Even though the population of MELs is diverse and rapidly evolving, major technical opportunities exist to improve their efficiency in these functionalities. Research into energy-saving solutions within the cross-cutting technologies will probably have larger savings than focusing on single products.

32 ENERGY CONSERVATION, CONSUMPTION, AND UTILIZATI↗

Technology advances needed for photovoltaics to achieve widespread grid price parity: Widespread grid price parity for photovoltaics

To quantify the potential value of technological advances to the photovoltaics (PV) sector, this paper examines the impact of changes to key PV module and system parameters on the levelized cost of energy (LCOE). The parameters selected include module manufacturing cost, efficiency, degradation rate, and service lifetime. NREL's System Advisor Model (SAM) is used to calculate the lifecycle cost per kilowatt-hour (kWh) for residential, commercial, and utility scale PV systems within the contiguous United States, with a focus on utility scale. Different technological pathways are illustrated that may achieve the Department of Energy's SunShot goal of PV electricity that is at grid price parity with conventional electricity sources. In addition, the impacts on the 2015 baseline LCOE due to changes to each parameter are shown. These results may be used to identify research directions with the greatest potential to impact the cost of PV electricity.

14 SOLAR ENERGY↗

The flexibility gap: Socioeconomic and geographical factors driving residential flexibility

Residential consumers are moving to the center of electricity systems and their flexibility is seen as a key resource to integrate renewable energy sources and support the grid. However, residential flexibility capacities are not homogeneous, as they depend on household appliances, comfort patterns, occupancy, and climate conditions. In this work, we calculate the technical flexibility capacities of 45 consumer types in mainland Spain, organised according to income and regional criteria. We show that flexibility gaps exist at both regional and socioeconomic (income) levels with flexibility differences of up to 10 times more capacity between the household groups from the lowest to the highest capacities. These geographical and socioeconomic gaps in flexibility can lead to distortions in national markets and have the potential to exclude citizens from the provision of flexibility services. Our results show in quantitative terms that a consumer-centered approach without considering correcting measures nor these gaps in drafting energy policies may lead to increasing inequality levels in the residential sector. Under an economic competitive paradigm, households with lower income levels or located in regions with lower flexibility potential may be excluded from the provision of flexibility to the detriment of households with larger potential, raising justice concerns in a flexibility-based energy transition.

24 POWER TRANSMISSION AND DISTRIBUTION↗

Comparing Offshore Wind Energy Procurement and Project Revenue Sources Across U.S. States

The pace of offshore wind energy procurement in the United States has rapidly accelerated in recent years. U.S. states along the Atlantic Coast have set procurement goals for offshore wind energy to meet renewable portfolio standards and serve state policy needs. By the end of 2019, projects with a total capacity of 6.4 gigawatts (GW) had established long-term contracts (or equivalent regulatory requirements) with utility off-takers. The prices established in these contracts since 2017 have been well below expectations from many industry observers, prompting stakeholders to compare price levels across U.S. states and globally. However, comparing procurement prices across projects and jurisdictions is often challenging because of differences in project parameters, support regimes, supply chains, and the applicable tax and regulatory environment. These characteristics provide critical context for understanding project revenue streams, delivery obligations, and risk allocation, which need to be accounted for when comparing across different projects. In combination, variation in these characteristics between projects results in measurable differences in project costs and revenues and, consequently, in different offer bids. In this report, we systematically analyze offshore wind energy support regimes across U.S. states. Because offshore wind energy procurement prices from U.S. projects are often compared not only among states but also with European tenders, this report also provides an overview of support regimes and taxonomy used in European offshore wind markets. The content of this report was derived from a literature review, primarily regulatory filings and summary reports, and 16 interviews with leading industry experts from state agencies, energy sector consultancies, and law practices. The comparison between U.S. states focuses on several dimensions, including statutory authority, solicitation procedures, procurement goals and awards, and the structuring of physical and transactional delivery of energy services.

17 WIND ENERGY↗

An Operational Configuration of the ARPS Data Analysis System to Initialize WRF in the NM'S Environmental Modeling System

The Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF) model is the next generation community mesoscale model designed to enhance collaboration between the research and operational sectors. The NM'S as a whole has begun a transition toward WRF as the mesoscale model of choice to use as a tool in making local forecasts. Currently, both the National Weather Service in Melbourne, FL (NWS MLB) and the Spaceflight Meteorology Group (SMG) are running the Advanced Regional Prediction System (AIRPS) Data Analysis System (ADAS) every 15 minutes over the Florida peninsula to produce high-resolution diagnostics supporting their daily operations. In addition, the NWS MLB and SMG have used ADAS to provide initial conditions for short-range forecasts from the ARPS numerical weather prediction (NWP) model. Both NM'S MLB and SMG have derived great benefit from the maturity of ADAS, and would like to use ADAS for providing initial conditions to WRF. In order to assist in this WRF transition effort, the Applied Meteorology Unit (AMU) was tasked to configure and implement an operational version of WRF that uses output from ADAS for the model initial conditions. Both agencies asked the AMU to develop a framework that allows the ADAS initial conditions to be incorporated into the WRF Environmental Modeling System (EMS) software. Developed by the NM'S Science Operations Officer (S00) Science and Training Resource Center (STRC), the EMS is a complete, full physics, NWP package that incorporates dynamical cores from both the National Center for Atmospheric Research's Advanced Research WRF (ARW) and the National Centers for Environmental Prediction's Non-Hydrostatic Mesoscale Model (NMM) into a single end-to-end forecasting system. The EMS performs nearly all pre- and postprocessing and can be run automatically to obtain external grid data for WRF boundary conditions, run the model, and convert the data into a format that can be readily viewed within the Advanced Weather Interactive Processing System. The EMS has also incorporated the WRF Standard Initialization (SI) graphical user interface (GUT), which allows the user to set up the domain, dynamical core, resolution, etc., with ease. In addition to the SI GUT, the EMS contains a number of configuration files with extensive documentation to help the user select the appropriate input parameters for model physics schemes, integration timesteps, etc. Therefore, because of its streamlined capability, it is quite advantageous to configure ADAS to provide initial condition data to the EMS software. One of the biggest potential benefits of configuring ADAS for ingest into the EMS is that the analyses could be used to initialize either the ARW or NMM. Currently, the ARPS/ADAS software has a conversion routine only for the ARW dynamical core. However, since the NIvIM runs about 2.5 times faster than the ARW, it is quite advantageous to be able to run an ADAS/NMM configuration operationally due to the increased efficiency.

Case, Jonathan↗

Savannah River Remediation Liquid Waste Operations Lifecycle Savings through a Lean Business System at the Savannah River Site - 17245

Savannah River Remediation (SRR) was contracted by the U.S. Department of Energy (DOE) to manage its liquid waste project at the Savannah River Site. The liquid waste project is a unique, high hazard nuclear waste treatment and disposal facility consisting of 51 one million-gallon underground waste tanks, a solvent extraction processing unit, a vitrification facility for the highest radioactive waste, and a grout solidification and disposal facility for lower radioactive decontaminated salt solution. Our Project mission is to treat the nuclear waste and close the associated storage and treatment facilities, of which, 8 tanks have been closed to date. The Lean philosophy took root decades ago in the manufacturing sector and started with the work of W. Edwards Deming and his contemporaries. In more recent years the process has matured in the Toyota Production System and migrated into fields as diverse as services industries, health-care, and now the DOE complex. At SRR, a Lean business management system was adopted to address site inefficiencies, aging infrastructure concerns and budget constraints. With yearly escalation and flat budgets, continuous improvement is taking on a larger role - improving the work accomplished for each dollar. This paper focuses on the program results achieved to date, including the lifecycle savings identified through the Rapid Improvement Event (RIE) process. The RIE process is a Lean tool which creates a cross-functional team to analyze, develop and implement improvements for a given process. DOE-EM has recently emphasized the value of contractor's continuous improvement programs through their implementation of Plan of Action and Milestone (POAM): Goal 2 (Increase Efficiency/Improve Performance) Reduce EM Operations Cost in FY16. POAM Goal 2 was a FY 16 effort to achieve 5% cost savings across most programs. This past year's cost savings initiatives will likely become a trend as DOE and its contractors look to do more with less. In support of our own business objectives, as well as, DOE's motivation to improve efficiencies, SRR has held over one hundred formal Lean events and dozens of 5S events that have driven improvement across the Project, including tank closure and production facilities. These improvements have significantly reduced the time required to process material and achieve the overall goal of hazard reduction and tank closure. (authors)

12 MANAGEMENT OF RADIOACTIVE AND NON-RADIOACTIVE W↗

SRR's 'Next Step' in the Lean Journey -Taking Lean to the Workforce - 17247

The Savannah River Site, a U.S. Department of Energy (DOE) facility, contracted Savannah River Remediation (SRR) to manage its liquid waste project, which is a unique, high hazard nuclear waste treatment and disposal facility consisting of 51, one million-gallon underground waste tanks, a solvent extraction processing unit, a vitrification facility for the highest radioactive waste, and a grout solidification and disposal facility for a decontaminated salt solution. Our Project mission is to treat the nuclear waste and close the associated storage and treatment facilities, of which, 8 tanks have been closed to date. At SRR, the Lean business management system has been adopted to address site inefficiencies, aging infrastructure concerns and budget constraints. The Lean philosophy took root decades ago in the manufacturing sector and started with the work of W. Edwards Deming and his contemporaries. In more recent years the process has matured in the Toyota Production System and migrated into fields as diverse as services industries, health-care, and now the DOE complex. The first step of the SRR Lean Journey was to formally identify areas of improvement and initiate Value Stream Analysis (VSAs) and Rapid Improvement Events (RIEs). SRR has achieved improvements in procedure implementation, work planning and control, project schedule compression, and engineering requirements. SRR is now phasing in the next phase of Lean through Managing for Daily Improvement (MDI), Visual Management and 5S (sort, set in order, shine, standardize, and sustain). MDI is a fundamental Lean principle in that we use our most valuable asset, our employees, to drive continuous improvement versus a smaller population through formal events. Part of MDI includes visual management where the workforce can go to a 'dashboard' to see and understand the company mission and status. 5S is a process where a work group improves performance in an area by addressing physical organization, efficiency, uniformity, standardization, and mechanisms to sustain improvements. 5S stands for: Sort, Set in Order, Shine, Standardize, and Sustain. This paper will focus on the 'Next Step' in SRR's Lean journey by address how SRR is implementing MDI and 5S to improve CONOPs, Project efficiencies, and worker engagement in day to day operations. (authors)

12 MANAGEMENT OF RADIOACTIVE AND NON-RADIOACTIVE W↗

Energy innovation in the US buildings sector: Setting the stage and mapping the future

Jared Langevin is a staff scientist at Lawrence Berkeley National Laboratory, where he leads modeling of US buildings sector innovation and its implications for energy demand, consumer costs, and the power grid. Eric Wilson is a senior research engineer in the Building Technologies and Sciences Center at the National Renewable Energy Laboratory (NREL). Much of his 15-year career at NREL has revolved around modeling and analysis of the US building stock. Jared and Eric co-led the development of a National Blueprint for buildings sector innovation while serving as advisors to the US Department of Energy’s Deputy Assistant Secretary for Buildings and Industry.

Langevin, Jared↗

Overview of the fusion nuclear science facility, a credible break-in step on the path to fusion energy

The Fusion Nuclear Science Facility (FNSF) is examined here as part of a two step program from ITER to commercial power plants. This first step is considered mandatory to establish the materials and component database in the real fusion in-service environment before proceeding to larger electricity producing facilities. The FNSF can be shown to make tremendous advances beyond ITER, toward a power plant, particularly in plasma duration and fusion nuclear environment. A moderate FNSF is studied in detail, which does not generate net electricity, but does reach the power plant blanket operating temperatures. The full poloidal Dual Coolant Lead Lithium (DCLL) blanket is chosen, with alternates being the Helium Cooled Lead Lithium (HCLL) and Helium Cooled Ceramic Breeder/Pebble Bed (HCCB/PB). Several power plant relevant choices are made in order to follow the philosophy of targeted technologies. Any fusion core component must be qualified by fusion relevant neutron testing and highly integrated non-nuclear testing before it can be installed on the FNSF in order to avoid the high probability of constant failures in a plasma-vacuum system. A range of missions for the FNSF, or any fusion nuclear facility on the path toward fusion power plants, are established and characterized by several metrics. A conservative physics strategy is pursued to accommodate the transition to ultra-long plasma pulses, and parameters are chosen to represent the power plant regime to the extent possible. An operating space is identified, and from this, one point is chosen for further detailed analysis, with R = 4.8 m, a = 1.2 m, IP = 7.9 MA, BT = 7.5 T, βN Gr = 0.9, fBS = 0.52, q95 = 6.0, H98 ∼1.0, and Q = 4.0. The operating space is shown to be robust to parameter variations. A program is established for the FNSF to show how the missions for the facility are met, with a He/H, a DD and 5 DT phases. The facility requires ∼25 years to complete its DT operation, including 7.8 years of neutron production, and the remaining spent on inspections and maintenance. The DD phase is critical to establish the ultra-long plasma pulse lengths. The blanket testing strategy is examined, and shows that many sectors have penetrations for heating and current drive (H/CD), diagnostics, or Test Blanket Modules (TBMs). The hot cell is a critical facility element in order for the FNSF to perform its function of developing the in-service material and component database. The pre-FNSF R&D is laid out in terms of priority topics, with the FNSF phases driving the time-lines for R&D completion. A series of detailed technical assessments of the FNSF operating point are reported in this issue, showing the credibility of such a step, and more detailed emphasis on R&D items to pursue. These include nuclear analysis, thermo-mechanics and thermal-hydraulics, liquid metal thermal hydraulics, transient thermo-mechanics, tritium analysis, maintenance assessment, magnet specification and analysis, materials assessments, core and scrape-off layer (SOL)/divertor plasma examinations.

70 PLASMA PHYSICS AND FUSION TECHNOLOGY↗

Oak Ridge National Laboratory Technical Input for the Nuclear Regulatory Commission Review of the 2017 Edition of ASME Section III, Division 5, ‘High Temperature Reactors’

To assist the Nuclear Regulatory Commission in its decision making on endorsement of the American Society for Mechanical Engineers Boiler and Pressure Vessel Code Section III, Division 5 (2017 Edition) for development of advanced non-light water reactors, the following Division 5 portions were reviewed: Article HBB-2000 Material; Article HCB-2000 Material; Article HGB-2000 Material; Mandatory Appendix HBB-I-14 Tables and Figures; and, Nonmandatory Appendix HBB-U Guidelines for Restricted Material Specifications to Improve Performance in Certain Service Applications. In addition to the 2017 Edition, the same parts of the 2019 Edition have also been reviewed as indicated in various sections of the report. This review was conducted by a collaboration of national laboratory and private sector participants with significant industrial experience, including some heavy lifting and deep diving from Clarus Consulting, LLC., all intended to achieve an objective, independent, and practical perspective. The report provides recommendations, descriptions of the evaluation methods, and the source references for the data used. To build confidence required for endorsement of the Code, this review was conducted as a verification and validation of the above Code contents. The objective of verification is to ensure that the Code is free of error – direct or implied; contains the information needed for its use, including proper coverage of the Code-specified materials for the intended application, and completeness and adequacy of references to other portions of the Code. The objective of validation is to authenticate that the Code tabulations and graphs represent design inputs consistent with what are determined using rules and methods specified by the Code. The authentication process used data that were assembled and/or generated independent of Code development, while the methods of analysis followed Code-specified methods where appropriate. The designated portions for this review cover the five alloys codified for high temperature reactor applications in Division 5, i.e. 316 SS, 304 SS, 800H, 2¼Cr-1Mo, and 9Cr-1Mo-V, regarding their general requirements, permitted specifications and design stress intensity values for pressure-retaining applications, deterioration in service, fatigue acceptance test, permissible weld materials, tensile and yield strength, expected minimum stress-to-rupture values (including for Alloy 718), weld stress rupture factors, permissible materials for bolting use, and restricted specifications in certain service applications. Additionally, stress intensity values for bolting materials including 316 SS, 304 SS and alloy 718 were reviewed. Analysis and discussion are also provided on contents outside of these designated Code portions where it was deemed relevant and necessary to develop a technically sound understanding of issues relating to the designated portions. Due to unavailability of sufficient test data on welds during the review period, the weld stress rupture factors in Tables HBB-I-10.14A to E, which cover a total of ten tables for the five alloys welded with twenty-eight different weld metals (some with similar properties), have been deferred to a future review effort. The review identified mainly two types of issues. The first type includes instances where the Code is found factually incomplete or incorrect, such as obsolete materials specifications listings, missing tabulation of stresses for bolting. Changes to the Code are recommended in these cases. The second type of issue includes instances where the Code tabulations and graphs are found to be less conservative than the review analysis results. In these cases, recommendations are made for further review and consideration where the difference in conservatism exceeds 10%, which is our threshold for questioning technical adequacy, meriting a risk assessment by the Nuclear Regulatory Commission and/or reactor designers. It is noted that this effort has been executed using all available data and established methods of analysis, including methods and criteria specified and used by the Code. As such, the findings that are presented in quantitative detail, in a format for convenient comparison with the Code, and with identification of where further review is recommended, should provide a sound technical basis for decisions about quantifying the implications of the reduced design margins and technical adequacy/inadequacy to form a basis for conditioning specific Code tabulation values on endorsement. Recommendations for specific changes to the Code, however, entail design conservatism considerations beyond the scope of this review effort, and are not made in this report.

22 GENERAL STUDIES OF NUCLEAR REACTORS↗

Overview of the fusion nuclear science facility, a credible break-in step on the path to fusion energy

Here the Fusion Nuclear Science Facility (FNSF) is examined as part of a two step program from ITER to commercial power plants. This first step is considered mandatory to establish the materials and component database in the real fusion in-service environment before proceeding to larger electricity producing facilities. The FNSF can be shown to make tremendous advances beyond ITER, toward a power plant, particularly in plasma duration and fusion nuclear environment. A moderate FNSF is studied in detail, which does not generate net electricity, but does reach the power plant blanket operating temperatures. The full poloidal Dual Coolant Lead Lithium (DCLL) blanket is chosen, with alternates being the Helium Cooled Lead Lithium (HCLL) and Helium Cooled Ceramic Breeder/Pebble Bed (HCCB/PB). Several power plant relevant choices are made in order to follow the philosophy of targeted technologies. Any fusion core component must be qualified by fusion relevant neutron testing and highly integrated non-nuclear testing before it can be installed on the FNSF in order to avoid the high probability of constant failures in a plasma-vacuum system. A range of missions for the FNSF, or any fusion nuclear facility on the path toward fusion power plants, are established and characterized by several metrics. A conservative physics strategy is pursued to accommodate the transition to ultra-long plasma pulses, and parameters are chosen to represent the power plant regime to the extent possible. An operating space is identified, and from this, one point is chosen for further detailed analysis, with R = 4.8 m, a = 1.2 m, I P = 7.9 MA, B T = 7.5 T, β N < 2.7, n/n Gr = 0.9, f BS = 0.52, q95 = 6.0, H 98 ~1.0, and Q = 4.0. The operating space is shown to be robust to parameter variations. A program is established for the FNSF to show how the missions for the facility are met, with a He/H, a DD and 5 DT phases. The facility requires ~25 years to complete its DT operation, including 7.8 years of neutron production, and the remaining spent on inspections and maintenance. The DD phase is critical to establish the ultra-long plasma pulse lengths. The blanket testing strategy is examined, and shows that many sectors have penetrations for heating and current drive (H/CD), diagnostics, or Test Blanket Modules (TBMs). The hot cell is a critical facility element in order for the FNSF to perform its function of developing the in-service material and component database. The pre-FNSF R&D is laid out in terms of priority topics, with the FNSF phases driving the time-lines for R&D completion. A series of detailed technical assessments of the FNSF operating point are reported in this issue, showing the credibility of such a step, and more detailed emphasis on R&D items to pursue. These include nuclear analysis, thermo-mechanics and thermal-hydraulics, liquid metal thermal hydraulics, transient thermo-mechanics, tritium analysis, maintenance assessment, magnet specification and analysis, materials assessments, core and scrape-off layer (SOL)/divertor plasma examinations.

70 PLASMA PHYSICS AND FUSION TECHNOLOGY↗

Generating multiple benefits from forests by producing value-added products: Lessons from the Pacific Northwestern US

This paper asks what conditions are needed to counteract a declining forest industry. The mobilization of supply chains for new value-added forest products and services can be supported by programs designed to simultaneously achieve multiple goals related to health, climate, and rural economic development. But several challenges are identified that underscore the need to stack benefits and incentives to achieve muti-sectoral goals. Based on a case study in Washington state, we find opportunities and constraints for sourcing forest products are determined by the local and regional conditions such as availability of working forests and their residues, socioeconomic conditions, workforce availability, transportation options, and perceptions about social license of the new industry. Key recommendations are the need for (1) a consistent demand and resilient supply chain for the new product; (2) a stable, supportive policy and assessment framework; (3) timely, transparent, and trusted monitoring and reporting of benefits and costs; (4) fostering engagement and buy-in from stakeholders; (5) a context-specific evaluation of opportunities and constraints; and (6) agreement on the goals of sustainable forestry. A diversity of products and markets builds a more resilient forest-based economy by mitigating impacts of disruptions in any individual market, adding value to biomass, increasing employment, and reducing forest risks to fire, insects, and disease.

Bioenergy↗

Integrating environmental understanding into freshwater floatovoltaic deployment using an effects hierarchy and decision trees

Abstract In an era of looming land scarcity and environmental degradation, the development of low carbon energy systems without adverse impacts on land and land-based resources is a global challenge. ‘Floatovoltaic’ energy systems—comprising floating photovoltaic (PV) panels over water—are an appealing source of low carbon energy as they spare land for other uses and attain greater electricity outputs compared to land-based systems. However, to date little is understood of the impacts of floatovoltaics on the hosting water body. Anticipating changes to water body processes, properties and services owing to floatovoltaic deployment represents a critical knowledge gap that may result in poor societal choices and water body governance. Here, we developed a theoretically-derived hierarchical effects framework for the assessment of floatovoltaic impacts on freshwater water bodies, emphasising ecological interactions. We describe how the presence of floatovoltaic systems may dramatically alter the air-water interface, with subsequent implications for surface meteorology, air-water fluxes and physical, chemical and biological properties of the recipient water body. We apply knowledge from this framework to delineate three response typologies—‘ magnitude’ , those for which the direction and magnitude of effect can be predicted; ‘ direction’ , those for which only the direction of effect can be predicted; and ‘ uncertain’ , those for which the response cannot be predicted—characterised by the relative importance of levels in the effects hierarchy. Illustrative decision trees are developed for an example water body response within each typology, specifically, evaporative water loss, cyanobacterial biomass, and phosphorus release from bed sediments, and implications for ecosystem services, including climate regulation, are discussed. Finally, the potential to use the new understanding of likely ecosystem perturbations to direct floatovoltaic design innovations and identify future research priorities is outlined, showcasing how inter-sectoral collaboration and environmental science can inform and optimise this low carbon, land-sparing renewable energy for ecosystem gains.

Environmental Sciences & Ecology↗

The Wind Forecast Improvement Project (WFIP): A Public–Private Partnership Addressing Wind Energy Forecast Needs

The Wind Forecast Improvement Project (WFIP) is a public–private research program, the goal of which is to improve the accuracy of short-term (0–6 h) wind power forecasts for the wind energy industry. WFIP was sponsored by the U.S. Department of Energy (DOE), with partners that included the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA), private forecasting companies (WindLogics and AWS Truepower), DOE national laboratories, grid operators, and universities. WFIP employed two avenues for improving wind power forecasts: first, through the collection of special observations to be assimilated into forecast models and, second, by upgrading NWP forecast models and ensembles. The new observations were collected during concurrent year-long field campaigns in two high wind energy resource areas of the United States (the upper Great Plains and Texas) and included 12 wind profiling radars, 12 sodars, several lidars and surface flux stations, 184 instrumented tall towers, and over 400 nacelle anemometers. Results demonstrate that a substantial reduction (12%–5% for forecast hours 1–12) in power RMSE was achieved from the combination of improved numerical weather prediction models and assimilation of new observations, equivalent to the previous decade’s worth of improvements found for low-level winds in NOAA/National Weather Service (NWS) operational weather forecast models. Data-denial experiments run over select periods of time demonstrate that up to a 6% improvement came from the new observations. Ensemble forecasts developed by the private sector partners also produced significant improvements in power production and ramp prediction. Based on the success of WFIP, DOE is planning follow-on field programs.

17 WIND ENERGY↗

Concurrent and Collaborative Engineering Implementation in an R and D Organization

Concurrent Engineering (CE), and Collaborative Engineering (or Collaborative Product Development - CPD) have emerged as new paradigms with significant impact in the development of new products and processes. With documented and substantiated success in the automotive and technology industries CE and, most recently, CPD are being touted as innovative management philosophies for many other business sectors including Research and De- velopment. This paper introduces two independent research initiatives conducted at the NASA Glenn Research Center (GRC) in Cleveland, Ohio investigating the application of CE and CPD in an RdiD environment. Since little research has been conducted in the use of CE and CPD in sectors other than the high mass production manufacturing, the objective of these independent studies is to provide a systematic evaluation of the applicability of these paradigms (concur- rent and collaborative) in a low/no production, service environment, in particular R&D.

DelRosario, Ruben↗

Impacts of High Variable Renewable Energy Futures on Wholesale Electricity Prices, and on Electric-Sector Decision Making

Increasing penetrations of variable renewable energy (VRE) can affect wholesale electricity price patterns and make them meaningfully different from past, traditional price patterns. Many long-lasting decisions for supply- and demand-side electricity infrastructure and programs are based on historical observations or assume a business-as-usual future with low shares of VRE. Our motivating question is whether certain electric-sector decisions that are made based on assumptions reflecting low VRE levels will still achieve their intended objective in a high VRE future. We qualitatively describe how various decisions may change with higher shares of VRE and outline an analytical framework for quantitatively evaluating the impacts of VRE on long-lasting decisions. We then present results from detailed electricity market simulations with capacity expansion and unit commitment models for multiple regions of the U.S. for low and high VRE futures. We find a general decrease in average annual hourly wholesale energy prices with more VRE penetration, increased price volatility and frequency of very low-priced hours, and changing diurnal price patterns. Ancillary service prices rise substantially and peak net-load hours with high capacity value are shifted increasingly into the evening, particularly for high solar futures. While in this report we only highlight qualitatively the possible impact of these altered price patterns on other demand- and supply-side electric sector decisions, the core set of electricity market prices derived here provides a foundation for later planned quantitative evaluations of these decisions in low and high VRE futures.

29 ENERGY PLANNING, POLICY, AND ECONOMY↗

Modeling the Impact of Flexible CHP on the Future Electric Grid In California

Combined heat and power (CHP) systems provide electricity and process heat at more than 4,400 industrial and commercial facilities across the United States. Typically fueled with natural gas, a CHP system combines a prime mover (such as a reciprocating engine) with a generator and heat recovery equipment, allowing operation at very high efficiencies (65–85%). Traditionally, CHP systems have been configured to serve local electrical and thermal loads at the sites where they are deployed. Units are sized to ensure a high capacity factor for the equipment, and the electricity generated tends to be used on site. CHP units in the United States already generate over 12% of the nation’s electricity. However, CHP’s potential benefits could be much greater if power generated could be used beyond the site, because the analysis was performed under the assumption that sites could use all the thermal output. Analysis of a few key sectors confirmed that this assumption is valid (for more information, see Appendix E). Those benefits could include improved grid reliability and resilience, as well as lower-cost options for providing energy and other grid services. The potential benefits also align well with grid modernization objectives, as shown in Combined heat and power (CHP) systems provide electricity and process heat at more than 4,400 industrial and commercial facilities across the United States., and greater electrification of loads, driven by carbon reduction priorities.

29 ENERGY PLANNING, POLICY, AND ECONOMY↗