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NASA NTRS2018

Synergy of Observations and Dynamo Models to Understand and Predict Solar Activity Cycles

The long-standing problem of understanding the evolution of the global magnetic fields that drive solar activity through different temporal scales is becoming more tractable because, in addition to 400 years of sunspot records, we now have almost 4 solar cycles of magnetic field observations. These observations allow us to discern physical connections between dynamo model variables and observations using data assimilation analysis. In particular, the Ensemble Kalman Filter approach takes into account uncertainties in both observations and modeling and allows us to make reliable forecasts of solar cycle activity by using a relatively simple non-linear dynamical model of the solar dynamo. To expand this approach for more complex 2D and 3D dynamo modeling, it is necessary to decompose the observed synoptic magnetograms into poloidal and toroidal field components. In this presentation I will present initial results on magnetogram decomposition and assimilation of magnetogram data into dynamo modeling.

Kitiashvili, Irina N.↗

NASA NTRS1984

Helium 10830 Angstrom Irradiance: 1975-1983

A fairly complete time series from late 1974 to mid-1983 is available of values of the equivalent width of the He I 10830A chromospheric spectrum line averaged over the visible solar disk. Variation from about 25 mA in 1975 to about 80 mA in late 1981 is the major component of the signal. The 10830 variation reaches minimum about a year before the sunspot minimum and reaches maximum about a year after sunspot maximum. Superposed on the solar cycle variation is a modulation of up to + or - 13 mAdu to the passage of active regions across the disk. Power spectral analysis of the time series shows a major peak at a synodic rotation period of 27.42 days and smaller peaks at 1/2, 1/4 and 1/6 of this period. The spectrum is well modeled by a basic fluctuating component with an exponentially decaying autocovariance function of scale time of 43 days. Analysis of the data indicates that the rotational modulation occurs in episodes that last from 4 to 10 rotations. These episodes arise when active regions tend to occur in a limited longitude range. The analysis also shows that the apparent rotation period increased from 1977 to 1981. The apparent rotation period since 1981 is markedly shorter.

Harvey, J. W.↗

NASA NTRS1998

Magnetic Storms

One of the oldest mysteries in geomagnetism is the linkage between solar and geomagnetic activity. The 11-year cycles of both the numbers of sunspots and Earth geomagnetic storms were first noted by Sabine. A few years later, speculation on a causal relationship between flares and storms arose when Carrington reported that a large magnetic storm followed the great September 1859 solar flare. However, it was not until this century that a well-accepted statistical survey on large solar flares and geomagnetic storms was performed, and a significant correlation between flares and geomagnetic storms was noted. Although the two phenomena, one on the Sun and the other on the Earth, were statistically correlated, the exact physical linkage was still an unknown at this time. Various hypotheses were proposed, but it was not until interplanetary spacecraft measurements were available that a high-speed plasma stream rich in helium was associated with an intense solar flare. The velocity of the solar wind increased just prior to and during the helium passage, identifying the solar ejecta for the first time. Space plasma measurements and Skylab's coronagraph images of coronal mass elections (CMES) from the Sun firmly established the plasma link between the Sun and the Earth. One phenomenon associated with magnetic storms is brilliant "blood" red auroras, as shown.

Tsurutani, Bruce T.↗

NASA NTRS1998

The Causes of Geomagnetic Storms During Solar Maximum

mass ejections plasma link↗

NASA NTRS1975

H-alpha synoptic charts of solar activity during the first year of solar cycle 20, October 1964 - August 1965

Solar activity during the period October 28, 1964 through August 27, 1965 is presented in the form of charts for each solar rotation constructed from observations made with the chromospheric H-alpha spectra line. These H-alpha synoptic charts are identical in format and method of construction to those published for the period of Skylab observations. The sunspot minimum marking the start of Solar Cycle 20 occurred in October, 1964; therefore, charts represent solar activity during the first year of this solar cycle.

Mcintosh, P. S.↗

NASA NTRS1999

A Synthesis of Solar Cycle Prediction Techniques

A number of techniques currently in use for predicting solar activity on a solar cycle timescale are tested with historical data. Some techniques, e.g., regression and curve fitting, work well as solar activity approaches maximum and provide a month-by-month description of future activity, while others, e.g., geomagnetic precursors, work well near solar minimum but only provide an estimate of the amplitude of the cycle. A synthesis of different techniques is shown to provide a more accurate and useful forecast of solar cycle activity levels. A combination of two uncorrelated geomagnetic precursor techniques provides a more accurate prediction for the amplitude of a solar activity cycle at a time well before activity minimum. This combined precursor method gives a smoothed sunspot number maximum of 154 plus or minus 21 at the 95% level of confidence for the next cycle maximum. A mathematical function dependent on the time of cycle initiation and the cycle amplitude is used to describe the level of solar activity month by month for the next cycle. As the time of cycle maximum approaches a better estimate of the cycle activity is obtained by including the fit between previous activity levels and this function. This Combined Solar Cycle Activity Forecast gives, as of January 1999, a smoothed sunspot maximum of 146 plus or minus 20 at the 95% level of confidence for the next cycle maximum.

Hathaway, David H.↗

NASA NTRS1996

Prelude to Cycle 23: The Case for a Fast-Rising, Large Amplitude Cycle

For the common data-available interval of cycles 12 to 22, we show that annual averages of sunspot number for minimum years (R(min)) and maximum years (R(max)) and of the minimum value of the aa geomagnetic index in the vicinity of sunspot minimum (aa(min)) are consistent with the notion that each has embedded within its respective record a long-term, linear, secular increase. Extrapolating each of these fits to cycle 23, we infer that it will have R(min) = 12.7 +/- 5.7, R(max) = 176.7 +/- 61.8, and aa(min) = 21.0 +/- 5.0 (at the 95-percent level of confidence), suggesting that cycle 23 will have R(min) greater than 7.0, R(max) greater than 114.9, and aa(min) greater than 16.0 (at the 97.5-percent level of confidence). Such values imply that cycle 23 will be larger than average in size and, consequently (by the Waidmeier effect), will be a fast riser. We also infer from the R(max) and aa(min) records the existence of an even- odd cycle effect, one in which the odd-following cycle is numerically larger in value than the even-leading cycle. For cycle 23, the even-odd cycle effect suggests that R(max) greater than 157.6 and aa(min) greater than 19.0, values that were recorded for cycle 22, the even-leading cycle of the current even-odd cycle pair (cycles 22 and 23). For 1995, the annual average of the aa index measured about 22, while for sunspot number, it was about 18. Because aa(min) usually lags R(min) by 1 year (true for 8 of 11 cycles) and 1996 seems destined to be the year of R(min) for cycle 23, it may be that aa(min) will occur in 1997, although it could occur in 1996 in conjunction with R(min) (true for 3 of 11 cycles). Because of this ambiguity in determining aa(min), no formal prediction based on the correlation of R(max) against aa(min), having r = 0.90, or of R(max) against the combined effects of R(min) and aa(min)-the bivariate technique-having r = 0.99, is possible until 1997, at the earliest.

Wilson, Robert M.↗

NASA NTRS1994

On the relationship between sunspots number and the flare index

During the years 1976-1991, sunspot number and the Kleczek flare index have displayed a strong linear correlation (r = 0.94), one that can be described by the equation y = -0.15 + 0.10 x, where x denotes annual sunspot number. While true, the temporal behaviors of the two parameters have differed, with sunspot number peaking first in 1979 and the flare index peaking much later in 1982 during cycle 21 and with more contemporaneous behavior in cycle 22 (both peaking in 1989, with a secondary peak in 1991). The difference appears to be directly attributable to the way in which the Kleczek flare index has been defined; namely, the annual flare index is the sum of the product of each flare's intensity (importance) times its duration (in minutes) divided by the total number of flares during the year. Because the number of 'major' flares (those of importance greater than or equal to 2) and flares of very long duration (duration greater than or equal to 100 min) both peaked after sunspot maximum (1982/81, respectively) in cycle 21, one should have expected the flare index to also peak (which it did). Likewise, because the number of major flares and flares of very long duration peaked simultaneously with sunspot number (1989) in cycle 22, one should have expected the flare index to also peak (which it did).

Wilson, Robert M.↗

NASA NTRS1993

An early solar dynamo prediction: Cycle 23 is approximately cycle 22

In this paper, we briefly review the 'dynamo' and 'geomagnetic precursor' methods of long-term solar activity forecasting. These methods depend upon the most basic aspect of dynamo theory to predict future activity, future magnetic field arises directly from the magnification of pre-existing magnetic field. We then generalize the dynamo technique, allowing the method to be used at any phase of the solar cycle, through the development of the 'Solar Dynamo Amplitude' (SODA) index. This index is sensitive to the magnetic flux trapped within the Sun's convection zone but insensitive to the phase of the solar cycle. Since magnetic fields inside the Sun can become buoyant, one may think of the acronym SODA as describing the amount of buoyant flux. Using the present value of the SODA index, we estimate that the next cycle's smoothed peak activity will be about 210 +/- 30 solar flux units for the 10.7 cm radio flux and a sunspot number of 170 +/- 25. This suggests that solar cycle #23 will be large, comparable to cycle #22. The estimated peak is expected to occur near 1999.7 +/- 1 year. Since the current approach is novel (using data prior to solar minimum), these estimates may improve when the upcoming solar minimum is reached.

Schatten, Kenneth H.↗

NASA NTRS1983

Is the sunspot spectrum really so complicated?

The spectrum of the sunspot index can be qualitatively accounted for by a very simple model which the Hale 22-yr cycle dominates. The Hale cycle is amplitude modulated at the 90-yr Gleissberg period with an index of 25 percent. The square of the modulated Hale cycle reproduces all of the spectral lines of the Zurich-sunspot-index spectrum, between 90- and 8.9-yr periods, provided that a small offset is included in the Hale carrier. Without this, evidence of the 22-yr periodicity disappears because of the squaring, thus explaining the very strong 11-yr cycle which is an artifact of the modulation, as is the 45-yr line. The offset suggests a small relict magnetic field in the sun's core.

Sonett, C. P.↗

NASA NTRS1987

Forecast of an exceptionally large even-numbered solar cycle

Using the 'dynamo theory' method to predict solar activity, an accurate prediction was made for solar cycle 21 by Schatten et al. (1978). Using the same dynamo technique for solar cycle 22, a value for the smoothed sunspot number of 170 + or - 25 is obtained. This large sunspot number is expected to peak in 1990 + or - 1 year. The F(10.7) radio flux is expected to reach a smoothed value of 210 + or - 25 flux units. Since this value is larger than values obtained with prediction schemes based upon 'statistical' and 'periodicity' methods, it provides a useful test for the current methodology, based upon the strength of the sun's polar field near solar minimum. The predicted degree of solar activity is expected to enhance the density and temperature of the earth's thermosphere to values somewhat larger than those found in solar cycle 21. This will have an impact on the orbital lifetime of low altitude satellites.

Schatten, Kenneth H.↗

NASA NTRS2012

Major Space Weather Events during the Weak Solar Cycle 24

We report on the level of solar activity during cycles 23 and 24 as the cycles build toward the corresponding solar maxima. The prolonged minimum period that followed solar cycle 23 and the weaker magnetic field at the poles seem to have resulted in a weaker level of activity during cycle 24. The double speak structure often observed in the maximum phases seems to be present during cycle 24, with the first peak having a sunspot number of only N90. large solar energetic particle (SEP) events, major geomagnetic storms, and radio-emitting interplanetary shocks have been observed in relatively sma:ier numbers. While the number of large SEP events during the rise phase of cycles 24 is not too different from that of cycle 23, they are generally less intense. Five ground level enhancement (GlE) events occurred up to the first activity peak in cycle 23, while a lone GlE event has been observed during the corresponding phase in cycle 24. There were 35 large (Dst S -100 nT) geomagnetic storms during the first 4.5 years of cycle 23, while only 5 occurred during cycle 24. The subdued activity during cycle 23 is consistent with the low numbers of type II radio bursts, full halo CMEs, and interplanetary shocks.

Gopalswamy, Natchimuthuk↗

NASA NTRS1979

Development of solar cycle 21 observed in EUV spectrum and atmospheric absorption

The results of AE-C and AE-E satellite observations of solar EUV irradiance and atmospheric absorption at wavelengths from 140 to 1850 A, which reflect unexpectedly large differences between the past solar cycle (20) and the present one (21), are discussed. While observations of the oxygen-dissociating solar UV flux above 1230 A show at most a 10% change between the two periods, the EUV minimum at other wavelengths was found to occur 14 months before the sunspot minimum, with a magnitude considerably greater in cycle 21 than in developing cycle 20. During the period of cycle transition, observed irradiance values did not correlate with conventional activity indices. Measurements of UV attenuation reveal no increase of optical depths around 300 km, indicating no corresponding rises in atmospheric density or temperature. The results are considered to present a major challenge to aeronomical models.

Hinteregger, H. E.↗

NASA NTRS2021

The Effect of Missing Groups in the Calculation of the Solar Irradiance Deficit: Analysis of the Sunspot Areas from the SOON Network

Sunspot areas are one of the most important indices of solar activity. To obtain an extended time series covering multiple solar cycles one must combine data from different observatories after a proper comparison and calibration of the individual data sets. We compare the daily and group values of sunspot areas provided by the different stations from the Solar Optical Observing Network, SOON, which are determined using similar instruments and techniques. We investigate if there are systematic differences among the stations and whether the differences in the daily values can be attributed to missing groups in the records or errors in the measurements. We find significant differences among the stations of the SOON network in terms of sizes (average daily and group values), quality of observations and coverage (considering number of missing groups and data gaps). Our results indicate that calibration factors for daily values can be used with confidence to combine data sets from different stations. However, for some applications which require the location of the sunspot groups the same correction factors should not be used. We estimate the irradiance deficit due to sunspot through the Photometric Sunspot Index and compare the output from similar data sets to quantify the effect of missing groups. We find differences as high as 150 ppm during the maximum of solar cycle. The effect increases for sunspot groups near the center of the disk accounting for about 80% of the observed differences.

Luis Leuzzi↗

NASA NTRS1977

Solar cycle variation of magnetic flux emergence

The number of X-ray bright points (XBP) has been measured from solar X-ray images obtained during two rocket flights in 1976. When compared with the data obtained during the Skylab mission (1973), the number is found to be higher by a factor of 2. As the probability of obtaining the result by chance is less than 1 in 5 million, it is concluded that the number of XBP has increased in the three year interval. As all other indicators of activity have decreased between 1973 and 1976, the cyclical variation of the short-lifetime end of the magnetic-flux-emergence spectrum is out of phase with the solar cycle as defined by active regions or sunspots. Since XBP in 1973 contributed more to the emerging magnetic flux than did active regions, the possibility exists that the total amount of emerging magnetic flux may be maximized at a sunspot minimum.

Davis, J. M.↗

NASA NTRS1991

Dynamo-based scheme for forecasting the magnitude of solar activity cycles

This paper presents a general framework for forecasting the smoothed maximum level of solar activity in a given cycle, based on a simple understanding of the solar dynamo. This type of forecasting requires knowledge of the sun's polar magnetic field strength at the preceding activity minimum. Because direct measurements of this quantity are difficult to obtain, the quality of a number of proxy indicators already used by other authors is evaluated, which are physically related to the sun's polar field. These indicators are subjected to a rigorous statistical analysis, and the analysis technique for each indicator is specified in detail in order to simplify and systematize reanalysis for future use. It is found that several of these proxies are in fact poorly correlated or uncorrelated with solar activity, and thus are of little value for predicting activity maxima. Also presented is a scheme in which the predictions of the individual proxies are combined via an appropriately weighted mean to produce a compound prediction. The scheme is then applied to the current cycle 22, and a maximum smoothed international sunspot number of 171 + or - 26 is estimated.

Layden, A. C.↗

NASA NTRS1982

Terrestrial cooling and solar variability

Observational evidence from surface temperature records is presented and discussed which suggests a significant cooling trend over the Northern Hemisphere from 1940 to the present. This cooling trend is associated with an increase of the latitudinal gradient of temperature and the lapse rate, as predicted by climate models with decreased solar input and feedback mechanisms. Evidence suggests that four of these 80- to 100-year cycles of global surface temperature fluctuation may have occurred, and in succession, from 1600 to the present. Interpretation of sunspot activity were used to infer a direct thermal response of terrestrial temperature to solar variability on the time scale of the Gleissberg cycle (90 years, an amplitude of the 11-year cycles). A physical link between the sunspot activity and the solar parameter is hypothesized. Observations of sensible heat flux by stationary planetary waves and transient eddies, as well as general circulation modeling results of these processes, were examined from the viewpoint of the hypothesis of cooling due to reduced insolation.

Agee, E. M.↗

NASA NTRS2007

Curious Behavior of Sunspot Umbrae in the First Half of the 20th Century

We examined the behavior of the areas of sunspot umbrae and penumbrae as reported daily by the Royal Observatory, Greenwich (RGO) from May 1874 to December 1976. We calculated the ratio of the umbral area to the penumbral area (corrected for foreshortening as observed on the solar disc) for each sunspot group and for each day. We found: 1) that this ratio is about 0.2 on average, 2) that larger sunspot groups have slightly smaller ratios, 3) that there is a weak dependence on the phase of the solar cycle, 4) that there is no dependence on the latitude of the sunspot groups, and curiously 5) that for the smaller sunspot groups this ratio increased dramatically from about 1910 to 1930 and then returned to "normal" from 1930 to 1950. We examined other sunspot records to determine whether this behavior was an artifact of the RGO data and find evidence to indicate that the behavior was real. For the smaller sunspots (constituting the vast majority in both number and total area), the proportional size of the sunspot umbrae slowly increased by more than 50% and then returned to "normal" over this 40-year period.

Hathaway, D. H.↗