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At least 343 records · Page 19

The Statistical Consulting Center for Astronomy (SCCA)

The process by which raw astronomical data acquisition is transformed into scientifically meaningful results and interpretation typically involves many statistical steps. Traditional astronomy limits itself to a narrow range of old and familiar statistical methods: means and standard deviations; least-squares methods like chi(sup 2) minimization; and simple nonparametric procedures such as the Kolmogorov-Smirnov tests. These tools are often inadequate for the complex problems and datasets under investigations, and recent years have witnessed an increased usage of maximum-likelihood, survival analysis, multivariate analysis, wavelet and advanced time-series methods. The Statistical Consulting Center for Astronomy (SCCA) assisted astronomers with the use of sophisticated tools, and to match these tools with specific problems. The SCCA operated with two professors of statistics and a professor of astronomy working together. Questions were received by e-mail, and were discussed in detail with the questioner. Summaries of those questions and answers leading to new approaches were posted on the Web (www.state.psu.edu/ mga/SCCA). In addition to serving individual astronomers, the SCCA established a Web site for general use that provides hypertext links to selected on-line public-domain statistical software and services. The StatCodes site (www.astro.psu.edu/statcodes) provides over 200 links in the areas of: Bayesian statistics; censored and truncated data; correlation and regression, density estimation and smoothing, general statistics packages and information; image analysis; interactive Web tools; multivariate analysis; multivariate clustering and classification; nonparametric analysis; software written by astronomers; spatial statistics; statistical distributions; time series analysis; and visualization tools. StatCodes has received a remarkable high and constant hit rate of 250 hits/week (over 10,000/year) since its inception in mid-1997. It is of interest to scientists both within and outside of astronomy. The most popular sections are multivariate techniques, image analysis, and time series analysis. Hundreds of copies of the ASURV, SLOPES and CENS-TAU codes developed by SCCA scientists were also downloaded from the StatCodes site. In addition to formal SCCA duties, SCCA scientists continued a variety of related activities in astrostatistics, including refereeing of statistically oriented papers submitted to the Astrophysical Journal, talks in meetings including Feigelson's talk to science journalists entitled "The reemergence of astrostatistics" at the American Association for the Advancement of Science meeting, and published papers of astrostatistical content.

Akritas, Michael↗

Flutter Analysis for Turbomachinery Using Volterra Series

The objective of this paper is to describe an accurate and efficient reduced order modeling method for aeroelastic (AE) analysis and for determining the flutter boundary. Without losing accuracy, we develop a reduced order model based on the Volterra series to achieve significant savings in computational cost. The aerodynamic force is provided by a high-fidelity solution from the Reynolds-averaged Navier-Stokes (RANS) equations; the structural mode shapes are determined from the finite element analysis. The fluid-structure coupling is then modeled by the state-space formulation with the structural displacement as input and the aerodynamic force as output, which in turn acts as an external force to the aeroelastic displacement equation for providing the structural deformation. NASA's rotor 67 blade is used to study its aeroelastic characteristics under the designated operating condition. First, the CFD results are validated against measured data available for the steady state condition. Then, the accuracy of the developed reduced order model is compared with the full-order solutions. Finally the aeroelastic solutions of the blade are computed and a flutter boundary is identified, suggesting that the rotor, with the material property chosen for the study, is structurally stable at the operating condition, free of encountering flutter.

computational fluid dynamics↗

Skylab experiment performance evaluation manual. Appendix P: Experiment T003 inflight aerosol analysis (DOT/MSFC)

A series of analyses is presented for experiment T003, inflight aerosol analysis, to be used for evaluating the performance of the Skylab corollary experiments under preflight, inflight, and post-flight conditions. Experiment contingency plan workaround procedure and malfunction analyses are presented in order to assist in making the experiment operationally successful.

Purushotham, K. S.↗

Fast Quasi-Static Time-Series Simulation for Accurate PV Inverter Semiconductor Fatigue Analysis with a Long-Term Solar Profile

Power system simulations with long-term data typically have large time steps varying from one second to a few minutes. However, for PV inverter semiconductors, the minimum thermal stress cycle occurs over the fundamental grid frequency (50 or 60 Hz). This requires the time step of the fatigue simulation to be around 100 µs. This small time step requires long computation times to process yearly power production profiles. This paper proposes a fast fatigue simulation for inverter semiconductors using the quasi-static time series (QSTS) simulation concept. The proposed simulation calculates the steady state of the semiconductor junction temperature by using a Fast Fourier Transform (FFT). The small thermal cycling during a switching period and even over the fundamental waveform is disregarded to further accelerate the simulation speed. The resulting time step of the fatigue simulation is 15 minutes, which is consistent with the solar dataset. The error of the proposed simulation is 0.16% compared to the fatigue simulation results using the complete thermal stress profile. A PV inverter that responds to a Transactive Energy System (TES) is simulated to demonstrate the use of the proposed fatigue simulation. The proposed simulation has the potential to co-simulate with system level simulation tools that also adopt the QSTS concept.

Liu, Yunting↗

Product Consistency Test Results for the LXC-Series Glasses

This report provides chemical analysis of a series of Product Consistency Test (PCT) leachates from simulated nuclear waste glasses. The resulting data will be used in the development of improved property/composition models. For some of the glass leachates, minor scatter among the triplicate values of some analytes was observed. For other leachates, there were more significant differences among the triplicate values. A review of the PCT data noted that there was little difference between the normalized values on the basis of targeted or measured glass composition. Several of the canister centerline cooled study glasses have NC i values that are greater than the Hanford Tank Waste Treatment and Immobilization Plant immobilized low-activity waste constraint of 4 g/L for B and Na. The results of these glasses will help ensure the ability of advanced glass performance models to appropriately predict acceptable compositions. For many of the study glasses, heat treatment had only a marginal impact on the NC i values. The samples of the Environmental Assessment (EA) reference glass included with each PCT set had generally consistent NC i values. The release rates for boron and sodium, and for sodium and silicon were highly correlated for the study glasses, while for the other analytes, less correlation was observed.

37 INORGANIC, ORGANIC, PHYSICAL, AND ANALYTICAL CH↗

Elimination of Gibbs' phenomena from error analysis of finite element results

This paper is one of a series on error analysis and correction of finite element solutions for plates and shells. The error analysis in the earlier papers used half-range double Fourier sine series for numerical harmonic analysis. The half-range formulas are simple to apply, but they can be inaccurate near the ends of the ranges of the independent variables. The Gibbs' phenomenon exhibited by half-range sine series in one independent variable has a two-dimensional analog; a classic example is the Navier solution in a double half-range sine series for the simply supported plate under a uniform load. A simple change of variables is introduced in the paper to improve the accuracy of the double Fourier sine series without adding complexity to the numerical analysis. The change of variables is applied to the problem of approximating a transverse load that is tabulated on a rectangular grid. A solution based on the change of variables is compared with results from the Navier solution for the simply supported plate problem and finite element results for the same problem.

Thurston, Gaylen A.↗

Detecting Long-period Variability in the SDSS Stripe 82 Standards Catalog

We report the results of a search for long-period (100 < P < 600 days) periodic variability in the SDSS Stripe 82 standards catalog. The SDSS coverage of Stripe 82 enables such a search because there are on average 20 observations per band in ugriz bands for about one million sources, collected over about 6 yr, with a faint limit of r ~ 22 mag and precisely calibrated 1%–2% photometry. We calculated the periods of variable source candidates in this sample using the Lomb–Scargle periodogram and considered the three highest periodogram peaks in each of the gri filters as relevant. Only those sources with gri periods consistent within 0.1% were later studied. We use the Kuiper statistic to ensure uniform distribution of data points in phased light curves. We present five sources with the spectra consistent with quasar spectra and plausible periodic variability. This SDSS-based search bodes well for future sensitive large-area surveys, such as the Rubin Observatory Legacy Survey of Space and Time, which, due to its larger sky coverage (about a factor of 60) and improved sensitivity (~2 mag), will be more powerful for finding such sources.

79 ASTRONOMY AND ASTROPHYSICS↗

Efficient detection, analysis and classification of lightning radiation fields

Modeling the large scale lightning flash structure is considered. Large scale flash data has been measured from strip charts of storms of August 5, August 26, and September 12, 1975. The data is being processed by a computer program called SASEV to estimate the large scale flash statistics. The program, experimental results, and conclusions for the large scale flash structure are described. The progress made in examining the internal flash structure consists mainly of developing the software required to process the NASA digital tape data. A FORTRAN program has been written for the statistical analysis of series of events. The statistics computed and tests performed are found to be particularly useful in the analysis of lightning data.

Harger, R. O.↗

Chromospheric Variability: Analysis of 36 years of Time Series from the National Solar Observatory/Sacramento Peak Ca II K-line Monitoring Program

Analysis of more than 36 years of time series of seven parameters measured in the NSO/AFRL/Sac Peak K-line monitoring program elucidates five elucidates five components of the variation: (1) the solar cycle (period approx. 11 years), (2) quasi-periodic variations (periods approx 100 days), (3) a broad band stochastic process (wide range of periods), (4) rotational modulation, and (5) random observational errors. Correlation and power spectrum analyses elucidate periodic and aperiodic variation of the chromospheric parameters. Time-frequency analysis illuminates periodic and quasi periodic signals, details of frequency modulation due to differential rotation, and in particular elucidates the rather complex harmonic structure (1) and (2) at time scales in the range approx 0.1 - 10 years. These results using only full-disk data further suggest that similar analyses will be useful at detecting and characterizing differential rotation in stars from stellar light-curves such as those being produced by NASA's Kepler observatory. Component (3) consists of variations over a range of timescales, in the manner of a 1/f random noise process. A timedependent Wilson-Bappu effect appears to be present in the solar cycle variations (1), but not in the stochastic process (3). Component (4) characterizes differential rotation of the active regions, and (5) is of course not characteristic of solar variability, but the fact that the observational errors are quite small greatly facilitates the analysis of the other components. The recent data suggest that the current cycle is starting late and may be relatively weak. The data analyzed in this paper can be found at the National Solar Observatory web site http://nsosp.nso.edu/cak_mon/, or by file transfer protocol at ftp://ftp.nso.edu/idl/cak.parameters.

Solar physics↗

Cloud Atlas: Unraveling the Vertical Cloud Structure with the Time-series Spectrophotometry of an Unusually Red Brown Dwarf

Rotational modulations of emission spectra in brown dwarf and exoplanet atmospheres show that clouds are often distributed non-uniformly in these ultracool atmospheres. The spatial heterogeneity in cloud distribution demonstrates the impact of atmospheric dynamics on cloud formation and evolution. In this study, we update the Hubble Space Telescope (HST) time-series data analysis of the previously reported rotational modulations of WISEP J004701+680352—an unusually red late-L brown dwarf with a spectrum similar to that of the directly imaged planet HR 8799e. We construct a self-consistent spatially heterogeneous cloud model to explain the HST and the Spitzer time-series observations, as well as the time-averaged spectra of WISE 0047. Additionally, in the heterogeneous cloud model, a cloud thickness variation of around one pressure scale height explains the wavelength dependence in the HST near-IR spectral variability. By including disequilibrium CO/CH 4 chemistry, our models also reproduce the redder $J-{K}_{{\rm{s}}}$ color of WISE 0047 compared to that of field brown dwarfs. We discuss the impact of vertical cloud structure on atmospheric profile and estimate the minimum eddy diffusivity coefficient for other objects with redder colors. Our data analysis and forward modeling results demonstrate that time-series spectrophotometry with a broad wavelength coverage is a powerful tool for constraining heterogeneous atmospheric structure.

79 ASTRONOMY AND ASTROPHYSICS↗

Domestic and world trends affecting the future of aviation (1980 - 2000), appendix C

The results are presented of a study of variables affecting aviation in the United States during the last fifth of the twentieth century. A series of key trends relating to economic, social, political, technological, ecological, and environmental developments are identified and discussed with relation to their possible effects on aviation. From this analysis a series of scenarios is developed representing an array of possibilities ranging from severe economic depression and high international tension on the one hand to a world of detente which enjoys an unprecedented economic growth rate and relaxation of tensions on the other. A scenario is presented which represents the manner in which events will most probably develop and their effect on the aviation industry.

Source record↗

Domestic and world trends (1980 - 2000) affecting the future of aviation

Variables affecting aviation in the United States during the last fifth of the twentieth century are studied. Estimates of relevant future developments are presented and their probable impact on the aviation industry in this country are identified. A series of key trends relating to economic, social, political, technological, ecological and environmental developments are identified and discussed with relation to their possible effects on aviation. From this analysis, a series of scenarios are developed representing an array of possibilities ranging from severe economic depression and high international tension on the one hand, to a world of detente which enjoys an unprecedented economic growth rate and relaxation of tensions on the other. A surprise free scenario is presented which represents the best judgment of the manner in which events will most probably develop and the effect on the aviation industry such developments will likely produce.

Friedman, N.↗

A multiple linear regression analysis of hot corrosion attack on a series of nickel base turbine alloys

Multiple linear regression analysis was used to determine an equation for estimating hot corrosion attack for a series of Ni base cast turbine alloys. The U transform (i.e., 1/sin (% A/100) to the 1/2) was shown to give the best estimate of the dependent variable, y. A complete second degree equation is described for the centered" weight chemistries for the elements Cr, Al, Ti, Mo, W, Cb, Ta, and Co. In addition linear terms for the minor elements C, B, and Zr were added for a basic 47 term equation. The best reduced equation was determined by the stepwise selection method with essentially 13 terms. The Cr term was found to be the most important accounting for 60 percent of the explained variability hot corrosion attack.

Barrett, C. A.↗

Constructing an AIRS Climatology for Data Visualization and Analysis to Serve the Climate Science and Application Communities

The NASA Goddard Earth Sciences Data and Information Services Center (GES DISC) is the home of processing, archiving, and distribution services for NASA sounders: the present Aqua AIRS mission and the succeeding SNPP CrIS mission. The AIRS mission is entering its 15th year of global observations of the atmospheric state, including temperature and humidity profiles, outgoing longwave radiation, cloud properties, and trace gases. The GES DISC, in collaboration with the AIRS Project, released product from the version 6 algorithm in early 2013. Giovanni, a Web-based application developed by the GES DISC, provides a simple and intuitive way to visualize, analyze, and access vast amounts of Earth science remote sensing data without having to download the data. Most important variables from version 6 AIRS product are available in Giovanni. We are developing a climatology product using 14-year AIRS retrievals. The study can be a good start for the long term climatology from NASA sounders: the AIRS and the succeeding CrIS. This presentation will show the impacts to the climatology product from different aggregation methods. The climatology can serve climate science and application communities in data visualization and analysis, which will be demonstrated using a variety of functions in version 4 Giovanni. The highlights of these functions include user-defined monthly and seasonal climatology, inter annual seasonal time series, anomaly analysis.

AIRS↗

A case study of the sensitivity of forecast skill to data and data analysis techniques

A series of experiments have been conducted to examine the sensitivity of forecast skill to various data and data analysis techniques for the 0000 GMT case of January 21, 1979. These include the individual components of the FGGE observing system, the temperatures obtained with different satellite retrieval methods, and the method of vertical interpolation between the mandatory pressure analysis levels and the model sigma levels. It is found that NESS TIROS-N infrared retrievals seriously degrade a rawinsonde-only analysis over land, resulting in a poorer forecast over North America. Less degradation in the 72-hr forecast skill at sea level and some improvement at 500 mb is noted, relative to the control with TIROS-N retrievals produced with a physical inversion method which utilizes a 6-hr forecast first guess. NESS VTPR oceanic retrievals lead to an improved forecast over North America when added to the control.

Baker, W. E.↗