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Search indexed NASA NTRS and DOE OSTI research on propulsion, heat transfer, battery materials and energy systems. Follow report and document links to the original sources.

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At least 343 records · Page 19
All sourcesNASA NTRSDOE OSTI
DOE OSTI2024

Deep Learning-Based Weather-Related Power Outage Prediction with Socio-Economic and Power Infrastructure Data

This paper presents a deep learning-based approach for hourly power outage probability prediction within census tracts encompassing a utility company's service territory. Two distinct deep learning models, conditional Multi-Layer Perceptron (MLP) and unconditional MLP, were developed to forecast power outage probabilities, leveraging a rich array of input features gathered from publicly available sources including weather data, weather station locations, power infrastructure maps, socio-economic and demographic statistics, and power outage records. Given a one-hour-ahead weather forecast, the models predict the power outage probability for each census tract, taking into account both the weather prediction and the location's characteristics. The deep learning models employed different loss functions to optimize prediction performance. Our experimental results underscore the significance of socio-economic factors in enhancing the accuracy of power outage predictions at the census tract level.

24 POWER TRANSMISSION AND DISTRIBUTION↗
DOE OSTI2026

Synthetic data-driven deep learning for label-free autonomous atomic force microscopy

Atomic force microscopy (AFM) is a widely used tool for nanoscale characterization across materials science, energy research, and biology. However, its adoption in high-throughput materials discovery and statistically driven studies remains limited by a strong dependence on expert operator input and by the scarcity of annotated experimental AFM datasets needed to enable data-driven automation. Here, we introduce SimuScan, a synthetic-data–driven framework that enables reliable AFM feature identification, segmentation, and targeted imaging without requiring large manually labeled experimental datasets. SimuScan generates tunable, high-fidelity synthetic AFM images of defined morphologies while incorporating realistic experimental artifacts, including tip–sample convolution, noise, flattening distortions, and surface debris. These datasets are shown to support scalable, label-free training of modern deep learning models for AFM analysis. When integrated into data-driven AFM workflows, SimuScan-trained models can locate and analyze nanoscale structures across large datasets and guide targeted follow-up imaging. We validate this approach on nanostructured surfaces, DNA assemblies, and bacterial cells, demonstrating robust generalization across diverse sample types with minimal operator intervention. More broadly, this work establishes a general strategy for generating explicitly conditioned, task-relevant synthetic data to improve the reliability of downstream models in autonomous microscopy.

Millan-Solsona, Ruben [Oak Ridge National Laborato↗
DOE OSTI2026

Bayesian Adaptive Polynomial Chaos Expansions

Polynomial chaos expansions (PCEs) are widely used for uncertainty quantification (UQ) tasks, particularly in the applied mathematics community. However, PCE has received comparatively less attention in the statistics literature, and fully Bayesian formulations remain rare—especially with implementations in R. Motivated by the success of adaptive Bayesian machine learning models such as BART, BASS and BPPR, we develop a new fully Bayesian adaptive PCE method with an efficient and accessible R implementation: khaos. Our approach includes a novel proposal distribution that enables data-driven interaction selection and supports a modified g-prior tailored to PCE structure. Through simulation studies and real-world UQ applications, we demonstrate that the Bayesian adaptive PCE provides competitive performance for surrogate modeling, global sensitivity analysis and ordinal regression tasks.

97 MATHEMATICS AND COMPUTING↗
DOE OSTI2024

Probabilistic neural networks for improved analyses with phenomenological R -matrix

Here we present a method for measurement analyses based on probabilistic deep neural networks that provide several advantages over conventional analyses with phenomenological models. These include predicting physical quantities directly from data, the rapid generation of statistically robust uncertainties, and the ability to bypass some parameters that may induce ambiguities and complications in data analysis. As deep learning methods make predictions through “black boxes,” the uncertainty quantification is typically challenging. We use a probabilistic framework that provides thorough uncertainty quantification and is straightforward to follow in practice. With the network architecture based on the Transformer, we demonstrate the current method for predicting nuclear resonance parameters from scattering data using the phenomenological R-matrix model.

73 NUCLEAR PHYSICS AND RADIATION PHYSICS↗
NASA NTRS1994

Multivariate statistical analysis software technologies for astrophysical research involving large data bases

We developed a package to process and analyze the data from the digital version of the Second Palomar Sky Survey. This system, called SKICAT, incorporates the latest in machine learning and expert systems software technology, in order to classify the detected objects objectively and uniformly, and facilitate handling of the enormous data sets from digital sky surveys and other sources. The system provides a powerful, integrated environment for the manipulation and scientific investigation of catalogs from virtually any source. It serves three principal functions: image catalog construction, catalog management, and catalog analysis. Through use of the GID3* Decision Tree artificial induction software, SKICAT automates the process of classifying objects within CCD and digitized plate images. To exploit these catalogs, the system also provides tools to merge them into a large, complete database which may be easily queried and modified when new data or better methods of calibrating or classifying become available. The most innovative feature of SKICAT is the facility it provides to experiment with and apply the latest in machine learning technology to the tasks of catalog construction and analysis. SKICAT provides a unique environment for implementing these tools for any number of future scientific purposes. Initial scientific verification and performance tests have been made using galaxy counts and measurements of galaxy clustering from small subsets of the survey data, and a search for very high redshift quasars. All of the tests were successful, and produced new and interesting scientific results. Attachments to this report give detailed accounts of the technical aspects for multivariate statistical analysis of small and moderate-size data sets, called STATPROG. The package was tested extensively on a number of real scientific applications, and has produced real, published results.

Djorgovski, S. George↗
NASA NTRS2019

A Communication Channel Density Estimating Generative Adversarial Network

Autoencoder-based communication systems use neural network channel models to backwardly propagate message reconstruction error gradients across an approximation of the physical communication channel. In this work, we develop and test a new generative adversarial network (GAN) architecture for the purpose of training a stochastic channel approximating neural network. In previous research, investigators have focused on additive white Gaussian noise (AWGN) channels and/or simplified Rayleigh fading channels, both of which are linear and have well defined analytic solutions. Given that training a neural network is computationally expensive, channel approximation networks— and more generally the autoencoder systems—should be evaluated in communication environments that are traditionally difficult. To that end, our investigation focuses on channels that contain a combination of non-linear amplifier distortion, pulse shape filtering, intersymbol interference, frequency-dependent group delay, multipath, and non-Gaussian statistics. Each of our models are trained without any prior knowledge of the channel. We show that the trained models have learned to generalize over an arbitrary amplifier drive level and constellation alphabet. We demonstrate the versatility of our GAN architecture by comparing the marginal probability density function of several channel simulations with that of their corresponding neural network approximations

Smith, Aaron↗
NASA NTRS1990

The Johnson Space Center Management Information Systems (JSCMIS): An interface for organizational databases

The Management Information and Decision Support Environment (MIDSE) is a research activity to build and test a prototype of a generic human interface on the Johnson Space Center (JSC) Information Network (CIN). The existing interfaces were developed specifically to support operations rather than the type of data which management could use. The diversity of the many interfaces and their relative difficulty discouraged occasional users from attempting to use them for their purposes. The MIDSE activity approached this problem by designing and building an interface to one JSC data base - the personnel statistics tables of the NASA Personnel and Payroll System (NPPS). The interface was designed against the following requirements: generic (use with any relational NOMAD data base); easy to learn (intuitive operations for new users); easy to use (efficient operations for experienced users); self-documenting (help facility which informs users about the data base structure as well as the operation of the interface); and low maintenance (easy configuration to new applications). A prototype interface entitled the JSC Management Information Systems (JSCMIS) was produced. It resides on CIN/PROFS and is available to JSC management who request it. The interface has passed management review and is ready for early use. Three kinds of data are now available: personnel statistics, personnel register, and plan/actual cost.

Bishop, Peter C.↗
DOE OSTI2026

Synthesis of ARM User Facility Surface Rainfall Datasets to Construct a Best Estimate Value Added Product (PrecipBE)

Surface precipitation measurements are essential for Earth system model (ESM) evaluation and understanding cloud processes. An ever-growing need for robust, temporally evolving, and easy-to-use statistical datasets provides motivation for a baseline ground-based precipitation properties data product. The U.S. Department of Energy Atmospheric Radiation Measurement (ARM) user facility operates an extensive suite of precipitation instruments with various sensitivities and operating mechanisms, which render the decision of which instrument to use based on one or more fixed thresholds challenging and prone to errors and bias. Using a long-term instrument inter-comparison from a unique per-precipitation event perspective, rather than instantaneous sample comparison, we demonstrate that ARM rainfall-measuring instruments are generally consistent with each other at the statistical level. Inter-instrument deviations at the single event level can be large, especially for specific rainfall event properties such as maximum precipitation rates. A machine-learning (ML) analysis using a random forest regressor indicates that in some cases, depending on instrument, local site climatology, and/or specific deployment configuration, certain atmospheric state variables influence the measured quantities in an unpredictable manner. Thus, a-priori weighting of different instruments does not necessarily lead to more accurate and less biased synthesis of instrument data. These results motivate the design of the ARM precipitation best-estimate (PrecipBE) value-added product, which incorporates all valid precipitation data while considering data quality and other instrument limitations. PrecipBE consists of time series and tabular statistics datasets in an easy-to-use and insightful per-precipitation event format. It provides a large set of precipitation event properties supplemented with ancillary data from ARM datasets that correspond to the detected precipitation events. We describe the PrecipBE algorithm and demonstrate its use via the examination of a single-day output as well as a long-term trend analysis of precipitation events at the ARM Southern Great Plains (SGP) site, covering more than 30 years of data. The trend analysis tentatively suggests a long-term temporal tendency for mainly shorter and less intense precipitation events at the SGP site, but a long-term increase in annual rainfall by more than 36 mm (5 %) per decade. This rainfall trend is catalyzed primarily by more extreme event properties of relatively rare, intense precipitation events, with event total and 1 min maximum precipitation rate at a 1 year timeframe increasing up to 5 mm and 9 mm h −1 (several percent) per decade, respectively. While the currently available PrecipBE datasets (at https://adc.arm.gov/discovery/, last access: 8 December 2025) cover rainfall from multiple ARM deployments up to March 2025, PrecipBE is planned to be expanded to include solid-phase precipitation and will soon become an operational product with a several-day lag from real-time. We invite the ARM user community to leverage this new product and welcome user feedback to further enhance the dataset.

Silber, Israel [Pacific Northwest National Laborat↗
DOE OSTI2025

Real-time neutron multiplicity and source localization for criticality safety during fuel debris removal

Advancing neutron detection and analysis techniques for complex radiation environments is an ongoing focus in nuclear instrumentation and monitoring. This proposal presents research and development of a generalized real-time neutron monitoring and analysis system, applicable to any detector capable of producing time-tagged neutron count data. While the work is demonstrated using the Neutron Multiplication Analysis Detector (NoMAD), a modular 15-tube helium-3 (He-3) array, due to its availability, spatial resolution, and flexible deployment, the methods developed are extensible to other systems, including organic scintillators and fast digital detectors. This research investigates two complementary analytical techniques for real-time characterization of neutron emitting sources: neutron multiplicity estimation based on the Hage-Cifarelli formalism and spatial localization using supervised machine learning applied to spatial count rate patterns. These methods are designed to operate under dynamic, evolving conditions such as fuel debris retrieval or reactor startup, where neutron-emitting material geometries may be partially unknown or changing over time. By integrating statistical neutron emission data with spatial localization, this research aims to develop and evaluate methods for real time neutron monitoring, source characterization, and material verification. Key contributions include implementation of a low-latency data pipeline for continuous neutron multiplicity analysis, development and validation of machine learning models for spatial inference, and experimental evaluation of system performance under variable measurement conditions. The outcomes are intended to support applications in nuclear safeguards, verification, emergency response, and reactor startup.

46 INSTRUMENTATION RELATED TO NUCLEAR SCIENCE AND ↗
DOE OSTI2025

Lowering the barrier to access information-rich transient kinetic data for machine learning methods

Transient kinetic data contain a wealth of information about intrinsic features of a catalyst as well as the reaction mechanism. Currently, high volume transient data is underutilized, and data science methods could both increase the value of information that can be extracted from this data, integrate experimental with theoretical data sources, and accelerate the pace of catalyst technology advancement. Transient kinetic characterizations with simple probe molecules exhibiting reversible adsorption, irreversible adsorption and bulk-surface diffusion are presented as training components for similar experiments with more complex surface reactions. In conclusion, by increasing the availability and accessibility of transient kinetic data through details of its structure and acquisition, we aim to decrease the barrier for data scientists to apply machine learning methods to this valuable data source.

Catalysis↗
DOE OSTI2025

Combining physics-based and data-driven models for quantitatively accurate plasma profile prediction that extrapolates well; with application to DIII-D, AUG, and ITER tokamaks

For design, scenario planning, and control, ITER and all other envisioned tokamaks rely on a variety of statistical and physics-based models to extrapolate to unseen regimes; most notably from low plasma current to high. A 'meta-learning' methodology for combining the accuracy of data-driven models with the generalizability of physics-based models is described and tested, yielding a 5–10 percent improvement in performance beyond either alone for the task of extrapolating time-dependent plasma profile prediction from low- to high- plasma current DIII-D tokamak discharges. Meanwhile, it is shown that both machine learning models extrapolated far-distribution and state-of-the-art 'physics-based' profile predictors fare worse than merely assuming plasma profiles do not change from their initial values. Finally, a variety of other mechanisms for helping data-driven models generalize—transfer learning, adding contextual information from physics simulators, and adding data from the ASDEX Upgrade tokamak—are attempted for similar extrapolation tasks but, in the methodology used in this paper, yield no significant improvement beyond simple data-driven models. Results are summarized in figures 15 and 16.

70 PLASMA PHYSICS AND FUSION TECHNOLOGY↗
DOE OSTI2024

A Hybrid Anomaly Detection Approach for Obfuscated Malware

With the rapid evolution of malicious software, cyber threats have become increasingly sophisticated, employing advanced obfuscation techniques to evade traditional detection methods. This study presents a hybrid anomaly detection approach applied to obfuscated malware. Even though there is a large body of research in this field, existing malware detection techniques have some drawbacks, such as requiring large amounts of data, trustworthiness (imprecise results) of algorithms, and advanced obfuscation. To overcome these challenges, there is a need to employ solid and efficient techniques for malware detection. This paper proposes a hybrid approach, combining an autoencoder with traditional machine-learning methods to create an efficient malware detection framework. We used the malware memory dataset (MalMemAnalysis-2022) to evaluate this framework. The results indicate that our proposed approach can detect obfuscated malware when a deep autoencoder used for feature learning is combined with logistic regression, and it is extremely fast with an Accuracy, Detection Rate (DR), Matthew Correlation Coefficient(MCC), and Statistical Parity Difference

malware detection, Hybrid Anomly Detection, Obfusc↗
DOE OSTI2025

Applying Transfer Learning for Street-Scale Nuisance Flood Forecasting in Coastal-Urban Cities

An important challenge with Machine Learning (ML) is its transferability; that is, whether a ML model trained on one set of data can be applied to a second set of data without requiring a full re-training of the model. Transfer Learning (TL) addresses this challenge by transferring knowledge learned in the source domain (the data it was trained on) to the target domain (a second set of data that is statistically different but related, which the model was not trained on). This study investigates the use of TL for street-scale nuisance flood forecasting by exploring whether a ML model trained on data collected for one set of streets can effectively forecast flooding for another set of streets in the same city using TL. The envisioned use case is a city deploying a new flood depth monitoring sensor on a street and using TL to apply a ML model, trained on sensor data from an existing flood depth sensor network, to this new street. Eventually, the new flood depth sensor will have a sufficient dataset for training its own ML model, but TL can be used to fill the gap in time while this new dataset is being generated. This method is explored using a Long Short-Term Memory (LSTM) model trained on data for the flood-prone streets of Norfolk City, Virginia. The data used for training includes environmental time series (rainfall, tide), topographic features (Digital Elevation Model (DEM), Topographic Wetness Index (TWI), Depth To Water (DTW)), and street-scale flood depth time series obtained from a high-fidelity physics-based model, acting as a synthetic street-scale stream depth sensor dataset since actual stream depth sensor data is generally unavailable for most cities. A set of 180 flood-prone streets was used to train a base model, while another set of 180 flood-prone streets was used to re-train that model using different TL strategies. The results show that full-weight re-training proved most effective and minimal re-training of only the output layer was insufficient. The advantage of TL was most pronounced when target data was limited, meaning data collected at the new water depth sensor location included generally less than 18 flood events. As target data increased beyond 18 flood events, the benefit of TL diminished relative to training a ML model directly on the local flood events. These findings can assist cities as they implement street-scale flood sensing systems to create accurate forecasts for new sensing locations that do not yet have sufficient data records to train a local ML model.

Roy, Binata [Univ. of Virginia, Charlottesville, V↗
NASA NTRS2007

NASA Langley's Approach to the Sandia's Structural Dynamics Challenge Problem

The objective of this challenge is to develop a data-based probabilistic model of uncertainty to predict the behavior of subsystems (payloads) by themselves and while coupled to a primary (target) system. Although this type of analysis is routinely performed and representative of issues faced in real-world system design and integration, there are still several key technical challenges that must be addressed when analyzing uncertain interconnected systems. For example, one key technical challenge is related to the fact that there is limited data on target configurations. Moreover, it is typical to have multiple data sets from experiments conducted at the subsystem level, but often samples sizes are not sufficient to compute high confidence statistics. In this challenge problem additional constraints are placed as ground rules for the participants. One such rule is that mathematical models of the subsystem are limited to linear approximations of the nonlinear physics of the problem at hand. Also, participants are constrained to use these models and the multiple data sets to make predictions about the target system response under completely different input conditions. Our approach involved initially the screening of several different methods. Three of the ones considered are presented herein. The first one is based on the transformation of the modal data to an orthogonal space where the mean and covariance of the data are matched by the model. The other two approaches worked solutions in physical space where the uncertain parameter set is made of masses, stiffnesses and damping coefficients; one matches confidence intervals of low order moments of the statistics via optimization while the second one uses a Kernel density estimation approach. The paper will touch on all the approaches, lessons learned, validation 1 metrics and their comparison, data quantity restriction, and assumptions/limitations of each approach. Keywords: Probabilistic modeling, model validation, uncertainty quantification, kernel density

Horta, Lucas G.↗
NASA NTRS2017

An Unobtrusive System to Measure, Assess, and Predict Cognitive Workload in Real-World Environments

Across many careers, individuals face alternating periods of high and low attention and cognitive workload, which can result in impaired cognitive functioning and can be detrimental to job performance. For example, some professions (e.g., fire fighters, emergency medical personnel, doctors and nurses working in an emergency room, pilots) require long periods of low workload (boredom), followed by sudden, high-tempo operations during which they may be required to respond to an emergency and perform at peak cognitive levels. Conversely, other professions (e.g., air traffic controllers, market investors in financial industries, analysts) require long periods of high workload and multitasking during which the addition of just one more task results in cognitive overload resulting in mistakes. An unobtrusive system to measure, assess, and predict cognitive workload could warn individuals, their teammates, or their supervisors when steps should be taken to augment cognitive readiness. In this talk I will describe an approach to this problem that we have found to be successful across work domains including: (1) a suite of unobtrusive, field-ready neurophysiological, physiological, and behavioral sensors that are chosen to best suit the target environment; (2) custom algorithms and statistical techniques to process and time-align raw data originating from the sensor suite; (3) probabilistic and statistical models designed to interpret the data into the human state of interest (e.g., cognitive workload, attention, fatigue); (4) and machine-learning techniques to predict upcoming performance based on the current pattern of events, and (5) display of each piece of information depending on the needs of the target user who may or may not want to drill down into the functioning of the system to determine how conclusions about human state and performance are determined. I will then focus in on our experimental results from our custom functional near-infrared spectroscopy sensor, designed to operate in real-world environments to be worn comfortably (e.g., positioned into a baseball cap or a surgeons cap) to measure changes in brain blood oxygenation without adding burden to the individual being assessed.

workload collection↗
NASA NTRS2019

Application of High-Dimensional Fuzzy K-Means Cluster Analysis to CALIOP/CALIPSO Version 4.1 Cloud-Aerosol Discrimination

This study applies fuzzy k-means (FKM) cluster analyses to a subset of the parameters reported in the CALIPSO lidar level 2 data products in order to classify the layers detected as either clouds or aerosols. The results obtained are used to assess the reliability of the cloud–aerosol discrimination (CAD) scores reported in the version 4.1 release of the CALIPSO data products. FKM is an unsupervised learning algorithm, whereas the CALIPSO operational CAD algorithm (COCA) takes a highly supervised approach. Despite these substantial computational and architectural differences, our statistical analyses show that the FKM classifications agree with the COCA classifications for more than 94 % of the cases in the troposphere. This high degree of similarity is achieved because the lidar-measured signatures of the majority of the clouds and the aerosols are naturally distinct, and hence objective methods can independently and effectively separate the two classes in most cases. Classification differences most often occur in complex scenes (e.g., evaporating water cloud filaments embedded in dense aerosol) or when observing diffuse features that occur only intermittently (e.g., volcanic ash in the tropical tropopause layer). The two methods examined in this study establish overall classification correctness boundaries due to their differing algorithm uncertainties. In addition to comparing the outputs from the two algorithms, analysis of sampling, data training, performance measurements, fuzzy linear discriminants, defuzzification, error propagation, and key parameters in feature type discrimination with the FKM method are further discussed in order to better understand the utility and limits of the application of clustering algorithms to space lidar measurements. In general, we find that both FKM and COCA classification uncertainties are only minimally affected by noise in the CALIPSO measurements, though both algorithms can be challenged by especially complex scenes containing mixtures of discrete layer types. Our analysis results show that attenuated backscatter and color ratio are the driving factors that separate water clouds from aerosols; backscatter intensity, depolarization, and mid-layer altitude are most useful in discriminating between aerosols and ice clouds; and the joint distribution of backscatter intensity and depolarization ratio is critically important for distinguishing ice clouds from water clouds.

Zeng, Shan↗
NASA NTRS2019

Root Cause Classification of Breakup Events 1961-2018

This paper uses the updated NASA “History of On-Orbit Satellite Fragmentations 15th Edition,” to examine and categorize the root cause of historical breakup events to the greatest degree possible. Classes of debris progenitors have evolved, as many classes of Cold War-era spacecraft are now extinct, only to be replaced by new classes of payloads and rocket bodies statistically likely to experience debris-producing events. The efficacy of international debris mitigation implementation and root cause/fault tree analyses and lessons learned is examined in relation to the breakup of satellite classes or specific events. In select cases, the remaining on-orbit inventory of specific classes is identified in the context of possible future events. The environmental impact of these specific classes is examined and compared to nominal space environment projections. When appropriate, recommendations for debris remediation are made for specific satellite classes.

Anz-Meador, P.↗
NASA NTRS1994

Multivariate Statistical Analysis Software Technologies for Astrophysical Research Involving Large Data Bases

We developed a package to process and analyze the data from the digital version of the Second Palomar Sky Survey. This system, called SKICAT, incorporates the latest in machine learning and expert systems software technology, in order to classify the detected objects objectively and uniformly, and facilitate handling of the enormous data sets from digital sky surveys and other sources. The system provides a powerful, integrated environment for the manipulation and scientific investigation of catalogs from virtually any source. It serves three principal functions: image catalog construction, catalog management, and catalog analysis. Through use of the GID3* Decision Tree artificial induction software, SKICAT automates the process of classifying objects within CCD and digitized plate images. To exploit these catalogs, the system also provides tools to merge them into a large, complex database which may be easily queried and modified when new data or better methods of calibrating or classifying become available. The most innovative feature of SKICAT is the facility it provides to experiment with and apply the latest in machine learning technology to the tasks of catalog construction and analysis. SKICAT provides a unique environment for implementing these tools for any number of future scientific purposes. Initial scientific verification and performance tests have been made using galaxy counts and measurements of galaxy clustering from small subsets of the survey data, and a search for very high redshift quasars. All of the tests were successful and produced new and interesting scientific results. Attachments to this report give detailed accounts of the technical aspects of the SKICAT system, and of some of the scientific results achieved to date. We also developed a user-friendly package for multivariate statistical analysis of small and moderate-size data sets, called STATPROG. The package was tested extensively on a number of real scientific applications and has produced real, published results.

Djorgovski, S. G.↗