Search NASA⌕ Search

SEARCH · Search NASA

Results for “Stochastic processes.”

Search indexed NASA NTRS and DOE OSTI research on propulsion, heat transfer, battery materials and energy systems. Follow report and document links to the original sources.

Quote a phrase for an exact phrase match. Source license links do not imply unrestricted reuse.

At least 343 records · Page 19
All sourcesNASA NTRSDOE OSTI
DOE OSTI2016

Possible role of interference, protein noise, and sink effects in nonphotochemical quenching in photosynthetic complexes

Here, we analyze theoretically a simple and consistent quantum mechanical model that reveals the possible role of quantum interference, protein noise, and sink effects in the nonphotochemical quenching (NPQ) in light-harvesting complexes (LHCs). The model consists of a network of five interconnected sites (excitonic states of light-sensitive molecules) responsible for the NPQ mechanism. The model also includes the “damaging” and the dissipative channels. The damaging channel is responsible for production of singlet oxygen and other destructive outcomes. In this model, both damaging and “dissipative” charge transfer channels are described by discrete electron energy levels attached to their sinks, that mimic the continuum part of electron energy spectrum. All five excitonic sites interact with the protein environment that is modeled using a stochastic process. Our approach allowed us to derive the exact and closed system of linear ordinary differential equations for the reduced density matrix and its first momentums. Moreover, these equations are solved numerically including for strong interactions between the light-sensitive molecules and protein environment. As an example, we apply our model to demonstrate possible contributions of quantum interference, protein noise, and sink effects in the NPQ mechanism in the CP29 minor LHC. The numerical simulations show that using proper combination of quantum interference effects, properties of noise, and sinks, one can significantly suppress the damaging channel. Finally, our findings demonstrate the possible role of interference, protein noise, and sink effects for modeling, engineering, and optimizing the performance of the NPQ processes in both natural and artificial light-harvesting complexes.

72 PHYSICS OF ELEMENTARY PARTICLES AND FIELDS↗
DOE OSTI2021

Utilizing computer vision and artificial intelligence algorithms to predict and design the mechanical compression response of direct ink write 3D printed foam replacement structures

Additive Manufacturing (AM) of porous polymeric materials, such as foams, recently became a topic of intensive research due their unique combination of low density, impressive mechanical properties, and stress dissipation capabilities. Conventional methods for fabricating foams rely on complex and stochastic processes, making it challenging to achieve precise architectural control of structured porosity. In contrast, AM provides access to a wide range of printable materials, where precise spatial control over structured porosity can be modulated during the fabrication process enabling the production of foam replacement structures (FRS). Current approaches for designing FRS are based on intuitive understanding of their properties or an extensive number of finite element method (FEM) simulations. These approaches, however, are computationally expensive and time consuming. As such, in this work, we present a novel methodology for determining the mechanical compression response of direct ink write (DIW) 3D printed FRS using a simple cross-sectional image. By obtaining measurement data for a relatively small number of samples, an artificial neural network (ANN) was trained, and a computer vision algorithm was used to make inferences about foam compression characteristics from a single cross-sectional image. Finally, a genetic algorithm (GA) was used to solve the inverse design problem, generating the AM printing parameters that an engineer should use to achieve a desired compression response from a DIW printed FRS. The methods developed herein present an avenue for entirely autonomous design and analysis of additively manufactured structures using artificial intelligence.

36 MATERIALS SCIENCE↗
DOE OSTI2022

Kinetic model development and Bayesian uncertainty quantification for the complete reduction of Fe-based oxygen carriers with CH 4 , CO, and H 2 for chemical looping combustion

In this work, three kinetic models are developed and calibrated for the complete multi-step reduction of an Fe-based oxygen carrier (OC) particle with CH 4 , CO, and H 2 , using data from thermogravimetric analysis. The complete reduction rate profiles exhibit complex dynamics whose trajectory is significantly different depending on the reducing gas. A Bayesian model building and parameter estimation framework is applied for simultaneous parameter and model structure uncertainty quantification. The final models show excellent agreement between model predictions and calibration data, as well as new data not used for calibration (for the reduction of the OC with CH 4 ). Parameter uncertainty is quantified by determining joint posterior distribution, and model structure uncertainty is addressed by incorporating Gaussian process stochastic functions (represented by Bayesian smoothing splines) into the kinetic models. The final kinetic models with discrepancy functions are readily employable in equation-oriented simulation and optimization platforms.

37 INORGANIC, ORGANIC, PHYSICAL, AND ANALYTICAL CH↗
DOE OSTI2017

Scalable domain decomposition solvers for stochastic PDEs in high performance computing

Stochastic spectral finite element models of practical engineering systems may involve solutions of linear systems or linearized systems for non-linear problems with billions of unknowns. For stochastic modeling, it is therefore essential to design robust, parallel and scalable algorithms that can efficiently utilize high-performance computing to tackle such large-scale systems. Domain decomposition based iterative solvers can handle such systems. And though these algorithms exhibit excellent scalabilities, significant algorithmic and implementational challenges exist to extend them to solve extreme-scale stochastic systems using emerging computing platforms. Intrusive polynomial chaos expansion based domain decomposition algorithms are extended here to concurrently handle high resolution in both spatial and stochastic domains using an in-house implementation. Sparse iterative solvers with efficient preconditioners are employed to solve the resulting global and subdomain level local systems through multi-level iterative solvers. We also use parallel sparse matrix–vector operations to reduce the floating-point operations and memory requirements. Numerical and parallel scalabilities of these algorithms are presented for the diffusion equation having spatially varying diffusion coefficient modeled by a non-Gaussian stochastic process. Scalability of the solvers with respect to the number of random variables is also investigated.

37 INORGANIC, ORGANIC, PHYSICAL, AND ANALYTICAL CH↗
DOE OSTI2021

Bayesian inference of heterogeneous epidemic models: Application to COVID-19 spread accounting for long-term care facilities

Here we propose a high dimensional Bayesian inference framework for learning heterogeneous dynamics of a COVID-19 model, with a specific application to the dynamics and severity of COVID-19 inside and outside long-term care (LTC) facilities. We develop a heterogeneous compartmental model that accounts for the heterogeneity of the time-varying spread and severity of COVID-19 inside and outside LTC facilities, which is characterized by time-dependent stochastic processes and time-independent parameters in ~ 1500 dimensions after discretization. To infer these parameters, we use reported data on the number of confirmed, hospitalized, and deceased cases with suitable post-processing in both a deterministic inversion approach with appropriate regularization as a first step, followed by Bayesian inversion with proper prior distributions. To address the curse of dimensionality and the ill-posedness of the high-dimensional inference problem, we propose use of a dimension-independent projected Stein variational gradient descent method, and demonstrate the intrinsic low-dimensionality of the inverse problem. We present inference results with quantified uncertainties for both New Jersey and Texas, which experienced different epidemic phases and patterns. Moreover, we also present forecasting and validation results based on the empirical posterior samples of our inference for the future trajectory of COVID-19.

42 ENGINEERING↗
DOE OSTI2015

One-dimensional turbulence modeling of a turbulent counterflow flame with comparison to DNS

The one-dimensional turbulence (ODT) model is applied to a reactant-to-product counterflow configuration and results are compared with DNS data. The model employed herein solves conservation equations for momentum, energy, and species on a one dimensional (1D) domain corresponding to the line spanning the domain between nozzle orifice centers. The effects of turbulent mixing are modeled via a stochastic process, while the Kolmogorov and reactive length and time scales are explicitly resolved and a detailed chemical kinetic mechanism is used. Comparisons between model and DNS results for spatial mean and root-meansquare (RMS) velocity, temperature, and major and minor species profiles are shown. The ODT approach shows qualitatively and quantitatively reasonable agreement with the DNS data. Scatter plots and statistics conditioned on temperature are also compared for heat release rate and all species. ODT is able to capture the range of results depicted by DNS. However, conditional statistics show signs of underignition.

37 INORGANIC, ORGANIC, PHYSICAL, AND ANALYTICAL CH↗
DOE OSTI2011

Predicting trends of invasive plants richness using local socio-economic data: An application in North Portugal

This study assesses the potential of an integrated methodology for predicting local trends in invasive exotic plant species (invasive richness) using indirect, regional information on human disturbance. The distribution of invasive plants was assessed in North Portugal using herbarium collections and local environmental, geophysical and socio-economic characteristics. Invasive richness response to anthropogenic disturbance was predicted using a dynamic model based on a sequential modeling process (stochastic dynamic methodology-StDM). Derived scenarios showed that invasive richness trends were clearly associated with ongoing socio-economic change. Simulations including scenarios of growing urbanization showed an increase in invasive richness while simulations in municipalities with decreasing populations showed stable or decreasing levels of invasive richness. The model simulations demonstrate the interest and feasibility of using this methodology in disturbance ecology. - Highlights: {yields} Socio-economic data indicate human induced disturbances. {yields} Socio-economic development increase disturbance in ecosystems. {yields} Disturbance promotes opportunities for invasive plants.{yields} Increased opportunities promote richness of invasive plants.{yields} Increase in richness of invasive plants change natural ecosystems.

60 APPLIED LIFE SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2019

Reduced-order model for microstructure evolution prediction in the electrodes of solid oxide fuel cell with dynamic discrepancy reduced modeling

Microstructure evolution in the electrodes of solid oxide fuel cell is an important degradation mechanism which reduces active sites for redox reaction and the electric conductivity. Phase field models for microstructure evolution simulation are usually expensive for large scale simulations. In this paper, a reduced-order coarsening model is developed using dynamic discrepancy reduced modeling, which reduces the model order by inserting Gaussian process stochastic functions into the dynamic equations of Ostwald ripening. The reduced order model has been calibrated on a dataset generated by a phase field model that has been well validated to experiments. A validating dataset has also been generated with which the model prediction show good agreement. This model is further applied to predict long term microstructure evolution in different SOFC electrodes. Finally, this work is the first attempt of building a degradation model of SOFC using data science techniques.

36 MATERIALS SCIENCE↗
DOE OSTI2011

An evaluation of the one-dimensional turbulence model: Comparison with direct numerical simulations of CO/H2 jets with extinction and reignition

A variant of the one-dimensional turbulence (ODT) model formulated in an Eulerian reference frame is applied to a planar nonpremixed turbulent jet flame and results from the model prediction are compared with DNS data. The model employed herein solves the full set of conservation equations for mass, momentum, energy, and species on a one-dimensional domain corresponding to the transverse jet direction. The effects of turbulent mixing are modeled via a stochastic process, while the full range of diffusive-reactive length and time scales are resolved directly on the one-dimensional domain. A detailed chemical mechanism consisting of 11 species and 21 reactions and mixture-averaged transport is used in this study (consistent with DNS simulations). Comparisons between the model and DNS data in physical and state space are shown, including conditional statistics. Results indicate that the model accurately reproduces the DNS data set. Turbulence-chemistry interactions, including trends for extinction and reignition, are captured by the model. Differences observed between model prediction and data are the result of early excess extinction observed in the model. The reasons for the early extinction are discussed within the model context.

Energy & Fuels↗
DOE OSTI2024

Sensitivity Analysis in the Presence of Intrinsic Stochasticity for Discrete Fracture Network Simulations

Abstract Large‐scale discrete fracture network (DFN) simulators are standard fare for studies involving the sub‐surface transport of particles since direct observation of real world underground fracture networks is generally infeasible. While these simulators have successfully been used in several engineering applications, estimates of output quantities of interest (QoI) — such as breakthrough time of particles reaching the edge of the system — suffer from two distinct types of uncertainty. A run of a DFN simulator requires several parameters to be set that dictate the placement and size of fractures, the density of fractures, and the overall permeability of the system; uncertainty on the proper parameters will lead to uncertainty in the QoI, called epistemic uncertainty. Furthermore, since these input settings to DFN simulators control the stochastic processes which place fractures and govern flow, understanding how this randomness affects the QoI requires several runs of the simulator at distinct random seeds. The uncertainty in the QoI attributed to different realizations (i.e., different seeds) of the same random process (i.e., identical input parameters) leads to a second type of uncertainty, called aleatoric uncertainty. In this paper, we perform a Sensitivity Analysis, which directly attributes the uncertainty observed in the QoI to the epistemic uncertainty from each input parameter and to the aleatoric uncertainty. Beyond the specific takeaways on which input variables influence uncertainty in the QoI the most, a major contribution of this paper is the introduction of a statistically rigorous workflow for characterizing the uncertainty in DFN flow simulations that exhibit heteroskedasticity.

58 GEOSCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2021

Soil microbiome predictability increases with spatial and taxonomic scale

Soil microorganisms shape ecosystem function, yet it remains an open question whether we can predict the composition of the soil microbiome in places before observing it. Furthermore, it is unclear whether the predictability of microbial life exhibits taxonomic- and spatial-scale dependence, as it does for macrobiological communities. Here, we leverage multiple large-scale soil microbiome surveys to develop predictive models of bacterial and fungal community composition in soil, then test these models against independent soil microbial community surveys from across the continental United States. We find remark- able scale dependence in community predictability. The predictability of bacterial and fungal communities increases with the spatial scale of observation, and fungal predictability increases with taxonomic scale. These patterns suggest that there is an increasing importance of deterministic versus stochastic processes with scale, consistent with findings in plant and animal communities, suggesting a general scaling relationship across biology. Biogeochemical functional groups and high-level taxonomic groups of microorganisms were equally predictable, indicating that traits and taxonomy are both powerful lenses for understanding soil communities. Here, by focusing on out-of-sample prediction, these findings suggest an emerging generality in our understanding of the soil microbiome, and that this understanding is fundamentally scale dependent

Biogeography↗
DOE OSTI2019

Global diversity and biogeography of bacterial communities in wastewater treatment plants

Microorganisms in wastewater treatment plants (WWTPs) are essential for water purification to protect public and environmental health. However, the diversity of microorganisms and the factors that control it are poorly understood. Using a systematic global-sampling effort, we analysed the 16S ribosomal RNA gene sequences from ~1,200 activated sludge samples taken from 269 WWTPs in 23 countries on 6 continents. Our analyses revealed that the global activated sludge bacterial communities contain ~1 billion bacterial phylotypes with a Poisson lognormal diversity distribution. Despite this high diversity, activated sludge has a small, global core bacterial community ( n = 28 operational taxonomic units) that is strongly linked to activated sludge performance. Meta-analyses with global datasets associate the activated sludge microbiomes most closely to freshwater populations. In contrast to macroorganism diversity, activated sludge bacterial communities show no latitudinal gradient. Furthermore, their spatial turnover is scale-dependent and appears to be largely driven by stochastic processes (dispersal and drift), although deterministic factors (temperature and organic input) are also important. Finally, our findings enhance our mechanistic understanding of the global diversity and biogeography of activated sludge bacterial communities within a theoretical ecology framework and have important implications for microbial ecology and wastewater treatment processes.

59 BASIC BIOLOGICAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2024

Agricultural practices influence soil microbiome assembly and interactions at different depths identified by machine learning

Agricultural practices affect soil microbes which are critical to soil health and sustainable agriculture. To understand prokaryotic and fungal assembly under agricultural practices, we use machine learning-based methods. We show that fertility source is the most pronounced factor for microbial assembly especially for fungi, and its effect decreases with soil depths. Fertility source also shapes microbial co-occurrence patterns revealed by machine learning, leading to fungi-dominated modules sensitive to fertility down to 30 cm depth. Tillage affects soil microbiomes at 0-20 cm depth, enhancing dispersal and stochastic processes but potentially jeopardizing microbial interactions. Cover crop effects are less pronounced and lack depth-dependent patterns. Machine learning reveals that the impact of agricultural practices on microbial communities is multifaceted and highlights the role of fertility source over the soil depth. Machine learning overcomes the linear limitations of traditional methods and offers enhanced insights into the mechanisms underlying microbial assembly and distributions in agriculture soils.

60 APPLIED LIFE SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2017

Autogenic succession and deterministic recovery following disturbance in soil bacterial communities

The response of bacterial communities to environmental change may affect local to global nutrient cycles; however the dynamics of these communities following disturbance are poorly understood, and are generally attributed to abiotic factors. Here, we subjected soil microcosms to a heat disturbance and followed the community composition of active bacteria over 50 days of recovery. Phylogenetic turnover patterns indicated that biotic interactions shaped the community during recovery, and that the disturbance imposed a strong selective pressure that persisted for up to 10 days, after which the importance of stochastic processes increased. Three successional stages were detected: a primary response (1-4 days after disturbance) in which surviving taxa increased in abundance; a secondary response phase (10-29 days), during which community dynamics slowed down, and a stability phase (after 29 days), during which the community tended towards its original composition. Furthermore, soil bacterial communities, despite their extreme diversity and functional redundancy, respond to disturbances like many macroecological systems and exhibit path-dependent, autogenic dynamics during secondary succession.

59 BASIC BIOLOGICAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2013

Stochastic modeling of sunshine number data

In this paper, we will present a unified statistical modeling framework for estimation and forecasting sunshine number (SSN) data. Sunshine number has been proposed earlier to describe sunshine time series in qualitative terms (Theor Appl Climatol 72 (2002) 127-136) and since then, it was shown to be useful not only for theoretical purposes but also for practical considerations, e.g. those related to the development of photovoltaic energy production. Statistical modeling and prediction of SSN as a binary time series has been challenging problem, however. Our statistical model for SSN time series is based on an underlying stochastic process formulation of Markov chain type. We will show how its transition probabilities can be efficiently estimated within logistic regression framework. In fact, our logistic Markovian model can be relatively easily fitted via maximum likelihood approach. This is optimal in many respects and it also enables us to use formalized statistical inference theory to obtain not only the point estimates of transition probabilities and their functions of interest, but also related uncertainties, as well as to test of various hypotheses of practical interest, etc. It is straightforward to deal with non-homogeneous transition probabilities in this framework. Very importantly from both physical and practical points of view, logistic Markov model class allows us to test hypotheses about how SSN dependents on various external covariates (e.g. elevation angle, solar time, etc.) and about details of the dynamic model (order and functional shape of the Markov kernel, etc.). Therefore, using generalized additive model approach (GAM), we can fit and compare models of various complexity which insist on keeping physical interpretation of the statistical model and its parts. After introducing the Markovian model and general approach for identification of its parameters, we will illustrate its use and performance on high resolution SSN data from the Solar Radiation Monitoring Station of the West University of Timisoara.

71 CLASSICAL AND QUANTUM MECHANICS, GENERAL PHYSIC↗
DOE OSTI2013

Direct measurement of activation time and nucleation rate in capillary-condensed water nanomeniscus

We demonstrate real-time observation of nucleation of the single water nanomeniscus formed via capillary condensation. We directly measure (i) activation time by time-resolved atomic force microscopy and (ii) nucleation rate by statistical analysis of its exponential distribution, which is the experimental evidence that the activation process is stochastic and follows the Poisson statistics. It implies that formation of the water nanomeniscus is triggered by nucleation, which requires activation for producing a nucleus. We also find the dependence of the nucleation rate on the tip-sample distance and temperature.

77 NANOSCIENCE AND NANOTECHNOLOGY↗
DOE OSTI2014

Kinetics and thermodynamics of first-order Markov chain copolymerization

We report a theoretical study of stochastic processes modeling the growth of first-order Markov copolymers, as well as the reversed reaction of depolymerization. These processes are ruled by kinetic equations describing both the attachment and detachment of monomers. Exact solutions are obtained for these kinetic equations in the steady regimes of multicomponent copolymerization and depolymerization. Thermodynamic equilibrium is identified as the state at which the growth velocity is vanishing on average and where detailed balance is satisfied. Away from equilibrium, the analytical expression of the thermodynamic entropy production is deduced in terms of the Shannon disorder per monomer in the copolymer sequence. The Mayo-Lewis equation is recovered in the fully irreversible growth regime. The theory also applies to Bernoullian chains in the case where the attachment and detachment rates only depend on the reacting monomer.

37 INORGANIC, ORGANIC, PHYSICAL, AND ANALYTICAL CH↗