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At least 343 records · Page 19

Classification and Localization of Fracture-Hit Events in Low-Frequency Distributed Acoustic Sensing Strain Rate with Convolutional Neural Networks

Summary Distributed acoustic sensing (DAS) has been used in the oil and gas industry as an advanced technology for surveillance and diagnostics. Operators use DAS to monitor hydraulic fracturing activities, examine well stimulation efficacy, and estimate complex fracture system geometries. Particularly, low-frequency DAS can detect geomechanical events such as fracture hits because hydraulic fractures propagate and create strain rate variations in the rock. Analysis of DAS data today is mostly done post-job and subject to interpretation methods. However, the continuous and dense data stream generated live by DAS poses the opportunity for more efficient and accurate real-time data-driven analysis. The objective of this study is to develop a machine learning-based workflow that can identify and locate fracture-hit events in simulated strain rate responses correlated with low-frequency DAS data. In this paper, “fracture hit” refers to a hydraulic fracture originating from a stimulated well intersecting an offset well. We start with building a single fracture propagation model to produce strain rate patterns observed at a hypothetical monitoring well. This model is used to generate two sets of strain rate responses with one set containing fracture-hit events. The labeled synthetic data are then used to train a custom convolutional neural network (CNN) model for identifying the presence of fracture-hit events. The same model is trained again for locating the event with the output layer of the model replaced with linear units. We achieved near-perfect predictions for both event classification and localization. These promising results prove the feasibility of using CNN for real-time event detection from fiber-optic sensing data. Additionally, we use edge detection techniques to recognize fracture-hit event patterns in strain rate images. The fracture-hit location can be identified using recognized pixels in the image. The accuracy of edge detection-based location identification is also plausible, but edge detection is dependent on the assumption of pattern shape and image quality, hence it is less robust compared to CNN models. This comparison further supports the need for CNN applications in image-based real-time fiber-optic sensing event detection.

Engineering↗

Semi-supervised Learning of Dynamical Systems with Neural Ordinary Differential Equations: A Teacher-Student Model Approach

Modeling dynamical systems is crucial for a wide range of tasks, but it remains challenging due to complex nonlinear dynamics, limited observations, or lack of prior knowledge. Recently, data-driven approaches such as Neural Ordinary Differential Equations (NODE) have shown promising results by leveraging the expressive power of neural networks to model unknown dynamics. However, these approaches often suffer from limited labeled training data, leading to poor generalization and suboptimal predictions. On the other hand, semi-supervised algorithms can utilize abundant unlabeled data and have demonstrated good performance in classification and regression tasks. We propose TS-NODE, the first semi-supervised approach to modeling dynamical systems with NODE. TS-NODE explores cheaply generated synthetic pseudo rollouts to broaden exploration in the state space and to tackle the challenges brought by lack of ground-truth system data under a teacher-student model. TS-NODE employs an unified optimization framework that corrects the teacher model based on the student's feedback while mitigating the potential false system dynamics present in pseudo rollouts. TS-NODE demonstrates significant performance improvements over a baseline Neural ODE model on multiple dynamical system modeling tasks.

Wang, Yu↗

Wheat signature modeling and analysis for improved training statistics: Supplement. Simulated LANDSAT wheat radiances and radiance components

Simulated scanner system data values generated in support of LACIE (Large Area Crop Inventory Experiment) research and development efforts are presented. Synthetic inband (LANDSAT) wheat radiances and radiance components were computed and are presented for various wheat canopy and atmospheric conditions and scanner view geometries. Values include: (1) inband bidirectional reflectances for seven stages of wheat crop growth; (2) inband atmospheric features; and (3) inband radiances corresponding to the various combinations of wheat canopy and atmospheric conditions. Analyses of these data values are presented in the main report.

Malila, W. A.↗

Synthetic spectra for Lyman- α forest analysis in the Dark Energy Spectroscopic Instrument

Synthetic data sets are used in cosmology to test analysis procedures, to verify that systematic errors are well understood and to demonstrate that measurements are unbiased. In this work we describe the methods used to generate synthetic datasets of Lyman-α quasar spectra aimed for studies with the Dark Energy Spectroscopic Instrument (DESI). In particular, we focus on demonstrating that our simulations reproduces important features of real samples, making them suitable to test the analysis methods to be used in DESI and to place limits on systematic effects on measurements of Baryon Acoustic Oscillations (BAO). We present a set of mocks that reproduce the statistical properties of the DESI early data set with good agreement. Additionally, we use a synthetic dataset to forecast the BAO scale constraining power of the completed DESI survey through the Lyman-α forest.

79 ASTRONOMY AND ASTROPHYSICS↗

A Physical Model Enhanced Data Driven Method for High-Resolution Residential Load Profile Generation

Residential buildings account for significant energy consumption, creating opportunities to offer grid services. As electric utilities seek to implement effective system operation strategies, understanding residential energy consumption patterns becomes essential; However, the time intervals of load profiles measured by utilities' smart meters are typically from 15 minutes to 60 minutes. The low-resolution data make it hard to extract appliance-level load information, which is critical for providing grid services. This paper presents a load profile generator designed to produce synthetic load profiles for residential buildings that emphasizes the importance of accurate representations of realistic energy consumption patterns. The generator takes realistic low-resolution residential load measurements and weather data as inputs, producing 1-minute interval profiles that match the characteristics of the original profiles. Further, this generator can be used to populate load profiles in areas where actual measurements are limited to improve the ability of utilities to analyze their distribution systems. By providing more high-resolution residential building load profiles, this tool supports electric utilities to enhance their residential building load control strategies and improve overall grid stability.

32 ENERGY CONSERVATION, CONSUMPTION, AND UTILIZATI↗

Simulating Impacts of Extreme Events on Grids with High Penetrations of Wind Power Resources

As extreme weather events become more frequent and intense, the demand for connecting grid operation and infrastructure planning with extreme event models will increase as well. We present a methodology for creating damage contingencies and scenarios for electric transmission grids during a hurricane strike. Included is an example case study: Hurricane Dolly damaging a synthetic 2000 bus test system during its landing in Southern Texas. Using WIND Toolkit meteorological data in conjunction with fragility curves for various electric grid elements, we generate stochastic damage scenarios that can be used for short- and long-term planning problems including emergency asset management. We perform statistical analysis of damages and quantify topological effects on example synthetic grid. Also, we investigate loss-of-load events during two-day economic dispatch experiment. Finally, we point out various shortcomings of our method and suggest how it can be improved.

data-driven forecasting↗

Radial widths, optical depths, and eccentricities of the Uranian rings

Observations of the stellar occultation by the Uranian rings of 15/16 August 1980 are used to estimate radial widths and normal optical depths for segments of rings 6, 5, 4, alpha, beta, eta, gamma, and delta. Synthetic occultation profiles are generated to match the observed light curves. A review of published data confirms the existence of width-radius relations for rings alpha and beta, and indicates that the optical depths of these two rings vary inversely with their radial widths. Masses are obtained for rings alpha and beta, on the assumption that differential precession is prevented by their self-gravity. A quantitative comparison of seven epsilon-ring occultation profiles obtained over a period of 3.4 yr reveals a consistent structure, which may reflect the presence of unresolved gaps and subrings.

Nicholson, P. D.↗

Cyclotron Resonant Scattering Feature Simulations II. Description of the CRSF Simulation Process

Context. Cyclotron resonant scattering features (CRSFs) are formed by scattering of X-ray photons o_ quantized plasma electrons in the strong magnetic field (of the order 1012 G) close to the surface of an accreting X-ray pulsar. Due to the complex scattering cross-sections, the line profiles of CRSFs cannot be described by an analytic expression. Numerical methods, such as Monte Carlo (MC) simulations of the scattering processes, are required in order to predict precise line shapes for a given physical setup, which can be compared to observations to gain information about the underlying physics in these systems.Aims. A versatile simulation code is needed for the generation of synthetic cyclotron lines. Sophisticated geometries should be investigatable by making their simulation possible for the first time.Methods. The simulation utilizes the mean free path tables described in the first paper of this series for the fast interpolation of propagation lengths. The code is parallelized to make the very time-consuming simulations possible on convenient time scales. Furthermore, it can generate responses to monoenergetic photon injections, producing Green's functions, which can be used later to generate spectra for arbitrary continua.Results. We develop a new simulation code to generate synthetic cyclotron lines for complex scenarios, allowing for unprecedented physical interpretation of the observed data. An associated XSPEC model implementation is used to fit synthetic line profiles to NuSTAR data of Cep X-4. The code has been developed with the main goal of overcoming previous geometrical constraints in MC simulations of CRSFs. By applying this code also to more simple, classic geometries used in previous works, we furthermore address issues of code verification and cross-comparison of various models. The XSPEC model and the Green's function tables are available online (see link in footnote, page 1).

Schwarm, F.-W.↗

Systems and Methods for Advanced Rapid Imaging and Analysis for Earthquakes

Many embodiments provide a hybrid data processing system (HySDS) of an end-to-end geodetic imaging data system enabling near-real-time science, assessment, response, and rapid recovery. The HySDS may be an operation data processing system that integrates data from many different geodetic data sources and/or sensors, including interferometric synthetic aperture radar (InSAR), GPS, pixel tracking, seismology, and/or modeling, and processes the data to generate actionable high quality science data products. The HySDS may provide for an automated imaging and analysis capabilities that is able to handle the imminent increases in raw data from new and existing geodetic monitoring sensor systems.

Owen, Susan Ethel↗

Simulating Impacts of Extreme Events on Grids with High Penetrations of Wind Power Resources: Preprint

As extreme weather events become more frequent and intense, the demand for connecting grid operation and infrastructure planning with extreme event models will increase as well. We present a methodology for creating damage contingencies and scenarios for electric transmission grids during a hurricane strike. Included is an example case study: Hurricane Dolly damaging a synthetic 2000 bus test system during its landing in Southern Texas. Using WIND Toolkit meteorological data in conjunction with fragility curves for various electric grid elements, we generate stochastic damage scenarios that can be used for short- and long-term planning problems including emergency asset management. We perform statistical analysis of damages and quantify topological effects on example synthetic grid. Also, we investigate loss-of-load events during two-day economic dispatch experiment. Finally, we point out various shortcomings of our method and suggest how it can be improved.

contingencies↗

Alaska Synthetic Aperture Radar (SAR) Facility science data processing architecture

The paper describes the architecture of the Alaska SAR Facility (ASF) at Fairbanks, being developed to generate science data products for supporting research in sea ice motion, ice classification, sea-ice-ocean interaction, glacier behavior, ocean waves, and hydrological and geological study areas. Special attention is given to the individual substructures of the ASF: the Receiving Ground Station (RGS), the SAR Processor System, and the Interactive Image Analysis System. The SAR data will be linked to the RGS by the ESA ERS-1 and ERS-2, the Japanese ERS-1, and the Canadian Radarsat.

Hilland, Jeffrey E.↗

Uncertainty Quantification of Expected Time-of-Arrival in UAV Flight Trajectory

One of the foremost requirements for accurate in-flight safety monitoring of autonomous unmanned aerial vehicles (UAVs) is tracking of their flight trajectory. Existing UAVs leverage autonomous flight functionalities based on trajectory generation algorithms developed in robotic applications such as polynomial or spline curves in order to facilitate kinematic smoothness, minimum vibrations and fuel efficiency. However in practice, the actual path may be subjected to unexpected local weather conditions, unexpected obstacles along the path or abrupt traffic changes in the low-altitude airspace resulting in large errors of the predicted time-of-arrival at way-points. In this study, an approach to quantify and propagate uncertainty in 4D trajectories is proposed. The paper presents a simple error interval propagation method based on the expected cruise speed of the UAV and its associated uncertainty. The uncertainty is then propagated in time to estimate reasonable confidence intervals on the times-of-arrival of the vehicle at each way-point as well as along the entire flight-path. The uncertainty propagation is demonstrated on a state-of-the-art trajectory generation algorithm based on non-uniform rational B-spline (NURBS) curves. Further, the effect of a stationary wind field is incorporated in the uncertainty propagation approach. The proposed method is implemented on synthetic and real data obtained from flight experiments with a small UAV.

Uncertainty Quantification↗

STAIR 2.0: A Generic and Automatic Algorithm to Fuse Modis, Landsat, and Sentinel-2 to Generate 10 m, Daily, and Cloud-/Gap-Free Surface Reflectance Product

Remote sensing datasets with both high spatial and high temporal resolution are critical for monitoring and modeling the dynamics of land surfaces. However, no current satellite sensor could simultaneously achieve both high spatial resolution and high revisiting frequency. Therefore, the integration of different sources of satellite data to produce a fusion product has become a popular solution to address this challenge. Many methods have been proposed to generate synthetic images with rich spatial details and high temporal frequency by combining two types of satellite datasets—usually frequent coarse-resolution images (e.g., MODIS) and sparse fine-resolution images (e.g., Landsat). In this paper, we introduce STAIR 2.0, a new fusion method that extends the previous STAIR fusion framework, to fuse three types of satellite datasets, including MODIS, Landsat, and Sentinel-2. In STAIR 2.0, input images are first processed to impute missing-value pixels that are due to clouds or sensor mechanical issues using a gap-filling algorithm. The multiple refined time series are then integrated stepwisely, from coarse- to fine- and high-resolution, ultimately providing a synthetic daily, high-resolution surface reflectance observations. We applied STAIR 2.0 to generate a 10-m, daily, cloud-/gap-free time series that covers the 2017 growing season of Saunders County, Nebraska. Moreover, the framework is generic and can be extended to integrate more types of satellite data sources, further improving the quality of the fusion product. View Full-Text

47 OTHER INSTRUMENTATION↗

HydroSAR: A Cloud-based SAR Data Analysis Service to Monitor Hydrological Disasters and their Impact on Population and Agriculture

Weather-related hazards are ubiquitous around the world including: 1) hurricane storm surges, 2) rapid snowmelt and heavy rainfall, 3) severe weather leading to flash floods, and 4) seasonal freeze and thaw of rivers that may lead to ice jams. Each of these hazards affects human settlements and has the potential to impact agricultural productivity. In each setting, end-users in disaster management need access to data processing tools helpful in mapping past and current disasters. Analysis of past events supports risk mitigation by understanding what has already occurred and how to alleviate those impacts in the future. Having capabilities to generate the same products in a response setting means that lessons learned from risk analysis will carry forward to event response. Synthetic aperture radar (SAR) data are particularly useful for these activities due to their all-weather 24/7 monitoring capabilities. In this effort we present HydroSAR, a cloud-based SAR data analysis service for the mapping of meteorological and hydrological disasters as well as their impact on population and agriculture. As part of this project we have developed a series of SAR-based value added products for the monitoring of surface hydrology (image time series, change detection, flood extent, flood depth) and the assessment of impacts on population (flood depth) and agriculture (active agriculture, inundated agriculture, flood duration). We also developed a cloud-based platform for generating these products over affected areas and are working with end-users to integrate derived product into decision-making workflows The paper will briefly introduce the SAR-based products that were developed for this effort. We describe the cloud-based production pipeline that was built to automatically generate these products in near-real time over extended regions. The integration of SAR-based information into hazard preparation and response activities is described for a number of recent disasters including the 2019 forest fires in Alaska, 2019 flooding in the U.S. Midwest, the 2020 U.S. severe weather easter outbreak, 2020 tropical storm Christobal, 2020 cyclone Amphan, 2020, Alaska Spring breakup flooding, and the 2020 flood season in Eastern India, Bangladesh, and Nepal.

Franz Josef Meyer↗

LyaCoLoRe : synthetic datasets for current and future Lyman-α forest BAO surveys

The statistical power of Lyman-α forest Baryon Acoustic Oscillation (BAO) measurements is set to increase significantly in the coming years as new instruments such as the Dark Energy Spectroscopic Instrument deliver progressively more constraining data. Generating mock datasets for such measurements will be important for validating analysis pipelines and evaluating the effects of systematics. With such studies in mind, here we present LyaCoLoRe: a package for producing synthetic Lyman-α forest survey datasets for BAO analyses. LyaCoLoRe transforms initial Gaussian random field skewers into skewers of transmitted flux fraction via a number of fast approximations. In this work we explain the methods of producing mock datasets used in LyaCoLoRe, and then measure correlation functions on a suite of realisations of such data. We demonstrate that we are able to recover the correct BAO signal, as well as large-scale bias parameters similar to literature values. Finally, we briefly describe methods to add further astrophysical effects to our skewers — high column density systems and metal absorbers — which act as potential complications for BAO analyses.

79 ASTRONOMY AND ASTROPHYSICS↗

Frequency Emitter Geolocation Using Signal Strength Fingerprinting Informed By 3D Propagation Modeling

This work focuses on the problem of RF geolocation in complex multipath environments. Using 3D electromagnetic propagation modeling to characterize environments of interest will enable more accurate RF geolocation. Specifically, a path-loss radio map can be generated in simulation for use in received signal strength indicators (RSSI) fingerprinting, or pattern matching. RSSI fingerprinting is an example of data-based method that takes site specific information into account which should allow for better performance than other model-based methods that use a generalized model of electromagnetic propagation. This modeling capability will also be used to evaluate the relative performance of RSSI fingerprinting, pathloss model based RSSI methods such as differential received signal strength circles (DRSS), RSSI joint gaussian estimation, and time-difference of arrival (TDOA). New methods using this simulation derived electromagnetic characterization could improve the efficacy of currently deployed and future RF spectral monitoring solutions. Wireless InSite developed by Remcom is used as the simulation tool of choice in this work. An indoor location is simulated with a grid of fixed receivers and a grid of transmit locations. Using the output of the Wireless InSite simulation the response from a given transmit location to a given receive location can be generated. During the first year of the project various geolocation methods evaluated on purely synthetic, but realistic, data. The second year focused on testing and validating the efficacy of simulation informed RF geolocation using two physical testbeds. This work has shown that data-based approaches are more accurate than model-based ones at the expensive of requiring measured or simulated site-specific training data.

47 OTHER INSTRUMENTATION↗

The Radar Image Generation (RIG) model

RIG is a modeling system which creates synthetic aperture radar (SAR) and inverse SAR images from 3-D faceted data bases. RIG is based on a physical optics model and includes the effects of multiple reflections. Both conducting and dielectric surfaces can be modeled; each surface is labeled with a material code which is an index into a data base of electromagnetic properties. The inputs to the program include the radar processing parameters, the target orientation, the sensor velocity, and (for inverse SAR) the target angle rates. The current version of RIG can be run on any workstation, however, it is not a real-time model. We are considering several approaches to enable the program to generate realtime radar imagery. In addition to its image generation function, RIG can also generate radar cross-section (RCS) plots as well as range and doppler radar return profiles.

Stenger, Anthony J.↗

A nonradial pulsation model for the rapidly rotating Delta Scuti star Kappa(2) Bootis

A sectorial nonradial pulsation model is used to construct theoretical line profiles which mimic the variations for Kappa(2) Boo. Synthetic spectra generated with the appropriate Teff and log g are used as input. It is found that the data can be reproduced by the combination of a high-degree l is approximately equal to 12 mode with P(osc) aproximately equal to 0.071 d, and a low-degree mode, l is approximately equal to 0-2 with P(osc) approximately equal to 0.071-0.079 d. The projected rotational velocity (v sin i - 115 +/-5 km/s) was determined by fitting synthetic line profiles to the observed spectra. The velocity amplitude of the high-degree oscillations is estimated to be about 3.5 km/s. It is found that the ratio of the horizontal and radial pulsation amplitudes is small (about 0.02) and consistent with p-mode oscillations. Comparisons are made with models invoking starspots, and it is impossible to fit the observations of Kappa(2) Boo by a starspot model without assuming unrealistic values of radius or equatorial velocity.

Kennelly, E. J.↗