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At least 343 records · Page 19

Estimation of surface heat and moisture fluxes over a prairie grassland. II - Two-dimensional time filtering and site variability

The behavior of in situ measurements of surface fluxes obtained during FIFE 1987 is examined by using correlative and spectral techniques in order to assess the significance of fluctuations on various time scales, from subdiurnal up to synoptic, intraseasonal, and annual scales. The objectives of this analysis are: (1) to determine which temporal scales have a significant impact on areal averaged fluxes and (2) to design a procedure for filtering an extended flux time series that preserves the basic diurnal features and longer time scales while removing high frequency noise that cannot be attributed to site-induced variation. These objectives are accomplished through the use of a two-dimensional cross-time Fourier transform, which serves to separate processes inherently related to diurnal and subdiurnal variability from those which impact flux variations on the longer time scales. A filtering procedure is desirable before the measurements are utilized as input with an experimental biosphere model, to insure that model based intercomparisons at multiple sites are uncontaminated by input variance not related to true site behavior. Analysis of the spectral decomposition indicates that subdiurnal time scales having periods shorter than 6 hours have little site-to-site consistency and therefore little impact on areal integrated fluxes.

Crosson, William L.↗

Termination shock response to large-scale solar wind fluctuations

The analysis of data recorded by the Voyager 2 spacecraft indicates the presence of large-scale fluctuations in the solar wind ram pressure on the time scale of tens of days. The amplitude of the fluctuations is highly variable but often lies within a factor of 5 to 10 change from an average or mean value of the ram pressure. Since the spacecraft has presumably not encountered the termination shock yet, these fluctuations should eventually interact with the shock and thereby play a role in determining the shock location. Numerical solutions of the time-dependent gasdynamic equations are used to simulate the response of the termination shock to fluctuations in the solar wind ram pressure comparable to those observed. The primary result of this study is that the maximum shock excursion due to the fluctuations is of the order of 1 AU, which is much smaller than that predicted by other studies. Additional simulations show that the limited movement is due to the fact that the time scale for the termination shock response is substantially larger than the time scale of the fluctuations. It is also shown that the heliopause acts as a barrier for the fluctuations and confines them to the heliosphere.

Steinolfson, R. S.↗

Termination shock response to large-scale solar wind fluctuations

The analysis of data recorded by the Voyager 2 spacecraft indicates the presence of large-scale fluctuations in the solar wind ram pressure on the time scale of tens of days. The amplitude of the fluctuations is highly variable but often lies within a factor of 5 to 10 change from an average or mean value of the ram pressure. Since the spacecraft has presumably not encountered the termination shock yet, these fluctuations should eventually interact with the shock and thereby play a role in determining the shock location. Numerical solutions of the time-dependent gas dynamic equations are used to simulate the response of the termination shock to fluctuations in the solar wind ram pressure comparable to those observed. The primary result of this study is that the maximum shock excursion due to the fluctuations is of the order of 1 AU, which is much smaller than that predicted by other studies. Additional simulations show that the limited movement is due to the fact that the time scale for the termination shock response is substantially larger than the time scale of the fluctuations. It is also shown that the heliopause acts as a barrier for the fluctuations and confines them to the heliosphere.

Steinolfson, R. S.↗

Air-sea interactions and precipitation over the tropical oceans

In this lecture, the author principally discusses air-sea exchanges that are relevant to climate and global problems. The processes of interest are those acting over time scales of months to decades, which in some instances are influenced by smaller-time-scale processes, down to the diurnal time scale. The repsective influence of these processes varies with regions, seasons and scales over which they occur and, because these processes are mostly nonlinear, scale interactions can be quite complex. Owing to the breadth of the topic addressed, the discussion is mostly focused on the tropical regions where air-sea interactions and precipitation processes eventually affect the entire globe. This allows a look in more detail at some air-sea processes, such as those associated with the El Nino southern oscillation (ENSO). This oscillation, which affects the climate of the entire globe, acts over periods of a year or longer and is caused, primarily, by sea surface temperature (SST) variations in the tropical Pacific. As a result, SST variability is often used as an indicator of coupled ocean-atmosphere low-frequency variability. Global or basin scale processes can uniquely be observed from space-born instruments with the coverage required. Space based techniques have been developed during the last decade which can now be used to illustrate the scientific issues presented and the presentation concludes with an overview of some Earth Observing System (EOS) capabilities for addressing air-sea interactions and hydrology issues.

Gautier, C.↗

Solar activity, the QBO, and tropospheric responses

The suggestion that galactic cosmic rays (GCR) as modulated by the solar wind are the carriers of the component of solar variability that affects weather and climate has been discussed in the literature for 30 years, and there is now a considerable body of evidence that supports it. Variations of GCR occur with the 11 year solar cycle, matching the time scale of recent results for atmospheric variations, as modulated by the quasibiennial oscillation of equatorial stratospheric winds (the QBO). Variations in GCR occur on the time scale of centuries with a well defined peak in the coldest decade of the little ice age. New evidence is presented on the meteorological responses to GCR variations on the time scale of a few days. These responses include changes in the vertical temperature profile in the troposphere and lower stratosphere in the two days following solar flare related high speed plasma streams and associated GCR decreases, and in decreases in Vorticity Area Index (VAI) following Forbush decreases of GCR. The occurrence of correlations of GCR and meteorological responses on all three time scales strengthens the hypothesis of GCR as carriers of solar variability to the lower atmosphere. Both short and long term tropospheric responses are understandable as changes in the intensity of cyclonic storms initiated by mechanisms involving cloud microphysical and cloud electrification processes, due to changes in local ion production from changes in GCR fluxes and other high energy particles in the MeV to low GeV range. The nature of these mechanisms remains undetermined. Possible stratospheric wind (particularly QBO) effects on the transport of HNO3 and other constituents incorporated in cluster ions and possible condensation and freezing nuclei are considered as relevant to the long term variations.

Tinsley, Brian A.↗

Forcing of Climate Variations by Mev-gev Particles

Changes in ionization production in the lower stratosphere by a few percent during Forbush decreases have been shown to correlate well with changes in winter tropospheric dynamics by a similar relatively small amount. Changes in ionization production by tens of percent on the decadal time scale have been shown to be correlated with changes in winter storm frequencies by tens of percent in the western North Atlantic. Changes in total solar irradiance or solar UV do not have time variations to match the tropospheric variations on the day to day time scales discussed here. Forcing related to magnetic activity is not supported. Thus solar wind/MeV-GeV particle changes appear to be the only viable forcing function for these day to day variations. If solar wind/particle forcing of a few percent amplitude can produce short term weather responses, then observed changes by tens of percent on the decadal and centennial time scale could produce climate changes on these longer time scales. The changes in circulation involved would produce regional climate changes, as observed. At present the relations between stratospheric ionization, electric fields and chemistry and aerosol and cloud microphysics are as poorly known as the relations between the latter and storm feedback processes. However, the capability for investigating these relationships now exists and has recently been most successfully used for elucidating the stratospheric chemistry and cloud microphysics associated with the Antarctic ozone hole. The economic benefits of being able to predict winter severity on an interannual basis, and the extent to which climate change related to solar variability will add to or substract from the greenhouse effect, should be more than adequate to justify support for research in this area.

Tinsley, Brian A.↗

Wintertime East Asian Jet Stream and its Association with the Asian-Pacific-American Climate

The wintertime upper-tropospheric westerly jet stream over subtropical East Asia and western Pacific, often referred to as East Asian Jet (EAJ), is an important atmospheric circulation system in the Asian-Pacific-American (APA) region. It is characterized by variabilities on a wide range of time scales and exerts a strong impact on the weather and climate of the region. On the synoptic scale, the jet is closely linked to many phenomena such as cyclogenesis, frontogenesis, blocking, storm track activity, and the development of other atmospheric disturbances. On the seasonal time scale, the variation of the EAJ determines many characteristics of the seasonal transition of the atmospheric circulation over Asia. The variabilities of the jet on these time scales have been relatively well documented (e.g., Yeh et al. 1959, Palmen and Newton 1969; Zeng 1979). It has also been understood that the inter-annual variability of the EAJ is associated with many climate signals in the APA region. These signals include the persistent anomalies of the East Asian winter monsoon and the changes in diabatic heating and in the Hadley circulation (Bjerknes 1966; Chang and Lau 1980; Huang and Gambo 1982; Kang and Held 1986; Tao and Chen 1987; Lau et al. 1988; Yang and Webster 1990; Ding 1992; Webster and Yang 1992; Dong et al. 1999). However, many questions remain for the year-to-year variabilities of the jet and their relation to the APA climate. For example, what is the relationship between the EAJ and El Nino/Southern Oscillation (ENSO)? Will the jet and ENSO play different roles in modulating the APA climate? How is the jet linked to North Pacific sea surface temperature (SST) and the Pacific/North American (PNA) teleconnection pattern? In this study, we address several issues related to the wintertime EAJ with a focus on interannual time scales. We will examine the association between the jet core and ENSO, which has always been overshadowed by the relationship between ENSO and the upper-tropospheric winds over northern extratropics of the central Pacific. We will investigate the linkage of the jet to variabilities of the Asian winter monsoon, tropical convection, and upper tropospheric wave patterns. We will also explore the relationship between the jet core and extratropical S ST with an aim at providing helpful information for improving our understanding of the connection of the EAJ to surface boundary conditions. The analysis is expected to provide information that is helpful for improving regional climate predictions.

Yang, Song↗

Variability of Disk Emission in Pre-Main Sequence and Related Stars. II. Variability in the Gas and Dust Emission of the Herbig Fe Star SAO 206462

We present thirteen epochs of near-infrared (0.8-5 microns) spectroscopic observations of the pre-transitional, "gapped" disk system in SAO 206462 (=HD 135344B). In all, six gas emission lines (Br(alpha) , Br(gamma), Pa(beta), Pa(delta), Pa(epsilon), and the 0.8446 microns line of O I) along with continuum measurements made near the standard J, H, K, and L photometric bands were measured. A mass accretion rate of approximately 2 x 10(exp 8)Solar Mass/yr was derived from the Br(gamma) and Pa(beta) lines. However, the fluxes of these lines varied by a factor of over two during the course of a few months. The continuum also varied, but by only approx.30%, and even decreased at a time when the gas emission was increasing. The H I line at 1.083 microns was also found to vary in a manner inconsistent with that of either the hydrogen lines or the dust. Both the gas and dust variabilities indicate significant changes in the region of the inner gas and the inner dust belt that may be common to many young disk systems. If planets are responsible for defining the inner edge of the gap, they could interact with the material on time scales commensurate with what is observed for the variations in the dust, while other disk instabilities (thermal, magneto-rotational) would operate there on longer time scales than we observe for the inner dust belt. For SAO 206462, the orbital period would likely be 1-3 years. If the changes are being induced in the disk material closer to the star than the gap, a variety of mechanisms (disk instabilities, interactions via planets) might be responsible for the changes seen. The He I feature is most likely due to a wind whose orientation changes with respect to the observer on time scales of a day or less. To further constrain the origin of the gas and dust emission will require multiple spectroscopic and interferometric observations on both shorter and longer time scales that have been sampled so far.

Sitko, Michael L.↗

NASA GEOS-3/TRMM Re-analysis: Capturing Observed Tropical Rainfall Variability in Global Analysis for Climate Research

Understanding climate variability over a wide range of space-time scales requires a comprehensive description of the earth system. Global analyses produced by a fixed assimilation system (i.e., re-analyses) - as their quality continues to improve - have the potential of providing a vital tool for meeting this challenge. But at the present time, the usefulness of re-analyses is limited by uncertainties in such basic fields as clouds, precipitation, and evaporation - especially in the tropics, where observations are relatively sparse. Analyses of the tropics have long been shown to be sensitive to. the treatment of cloud precipitation processes, which remains a major source of uncertainty in current models. Yet, for many climate studies it is crucial that analyses can accurately reproduce the observed rainfall intensity and variability since a small error of 1 mm/d in surface rain translates into an error of approx. 30 W/sq m in energy (latent heat) flux. Currently, discrepancies between the observed and analyzed monthly-mean rain rates averaged to 100 km x 100 km resolution can exceed 4 mm/d (or 120 W/sq m ), compared to uncertainties in surface radiative fluxes of approx. 10-20 W/sq m . Improving precipitation in analyses would reduce a major source of uncertainty in the global energy budget. Uncertainties in tropical precipitation have also been a major impediment in understanding how the tropics interact with other regions, including the remote response to El Nino/Southern Oscillation (ENSO) variability on interannual time scales, the influence of Madden-Julian Oscillation (MJO) and monsoons on intraseasonal time scales. A global analysis that can replicate the observed precipitation variability together with physically consistent estimates of other atmospheric variables provides the key to breaking this roadblock. NASA Goddard Space Flight Center has been exploring the use of satellite-based microwave rainfall measurements in improving global analyses and has recently produced a multi-year, 1 x 1 TRMM re-analysis , which assimilates 6-hourly TMI and SSM/I surface rain rates over tropical oceans using a ID variational continuous assimilation (VCA) procedure in the GEOS-3 global data assimilation system. The analysis period extends from 1 November 1997 through 3 1 December 2002. The goal is to produce a multi-year global analysis that is dynamically consistent with available tropical precipitation observations for the community to assess its utility in climate applications and identify areas for further improvements. A distinct feature of the GEOS-3RRMh4 re-analysis is that its precipitation analysis is not derived from a short-term forecast (as done in most operational systems) but is given by a time- continuous model integration constrained by precipitation observations within a 6-h analysis window, while the wind, temperature, and pressure fields are allowed to directly respond to the improved precipitation and associated latent heating structures within the same analysis window. In this talk, I will assess the impact VCA precipitation assimilation on analyses of climate signals ranging from a few weeks to interannual time scales and compare results against other operational and reanalysis products.

Hou, Arthur Y.↗

Magnectic Probing of Core Geodynamics

To better understand geomagnetic theory and observation, we can use spatial magnetic spectra for the main field and secular variation to test core dynamical hypotheses against seismology. The hypotheses lead to theoretical spectra which are fitted to observational spectra. Each fit yields an estimate of the radius of Earth s core and uncertainty. If this agrees with the seismologic value, then the hypotheses pass the test. A new way to obtain theoretical spectra extends the hydromagnetic scale analysis of Benton to scale-variant field and flow. For narrow scale flow and a dynamically weak field by the top of Earth s core, this yields a JGR-PI, and a secular variation spectrum modulated by a cubic polynomial in spherical harmonic degree n. The former passes the tests. The latter passes many tests, but does not describe rapid dipole decline and quadrupole rebound; some tests suggest it is a bit hard, or rich in narrow scale change.In a core geodynamo, motion of the fluid conductor does work against the Lorentz force. This converts kinetic into magnetic energy which, in turn, is lost to heat via Ohmic dissipation. In the analysis at length- scale l/k, if one presumes kinetic energy is converted in either eddy- overturning or magnetic free-decay time-scales, then Kolmogorov or other spectra in conflict with observational spectra can result. Instead, the rate work is done roughly balances the dissipation rate, which is consistent with small scale flow. The conversion time-scale depends on dynamical constraints. These are summarized by the magneto- geostrophic vertical vorticity balance by the top of the core, which includes anisotropic effects of rotation, the magnetic field, and the core-mantle boundary. The resulting theoretical spectra for the core- source field and its SV are far more compatible with observation. The conversion time-scale of order 120 years is pseudo-scale-invariant. Magnetic spectra of other planets may differ; however, if a transition to non-conducting fluid hydrogen in Jupiter acts as barrier to vertical flow, as well as current, then the shape of the jovi-magnetic spectrum could be remarkably Earth-like.

Voorhies, Coerte↗

Magnetic Probing of Core Geodynamics

To better understand geomagnetic theory and observation, we can use spatial magnetic spectra for the main field and secular variation to test core dynmcal hypotheses against seismology. The hypotheses lead to theoretical spectra which are fitted to observational spectra. Each fit yields an estimate of the radius of Earth's core and uncertainty. If this agrees with the seismologic value, then the hypothes pass the test. A new way to obtain theoretical spectra extends the hydromagnetic scale analysis of Benton to scale-variant field and flow. For narrow scale flow and a dynamically weak field by the top of Earth's core, this yields a generalized Stevenson-McLeod spectrum for the core-source field, and a secular variation spectrum modulated by a cubic polynomial in spherical harmonic degree n. The former passes the tests. The latter passes many tests, but does not describe rapid dipole decline and quadrupole rebound; some tests suggest it is a bit hard, or rich in narrow scale change. In a core geodynamo, motion of the fluid conductor does work against the Lorentz force. This converts kinetic into magnetic energy which, in turn, is lost to heat via Ohmic dissipation. In the analysis at lentgh-scale l/k, if one presumes kinetic energy is converted in either eddy- overturning or magnetic free-decay time-scales, then Kolmogorov or other spectra in conflict with observational spectra can result. Instead, the rate work is done roughly balances the dissipation rate, which is consistent with small scale flow. The conversion time-scale depends on dynamical constraints. These are summarized by the magneto-geostrophic vertical vorticity balance by the top of the core, which includes anisotropic effects of rotation, the magnetic field, and the core- mantle boundary. The resulting theoretical spectra for the core-source field and its SV are far more compatible with observation. The conversion time-scale of order l20 years is pseudo-scale-invarient. Magnetic spectra of other planets may differ; however, if a transition to non-conductmg fluid hydrogen in Jupiter acts as barrier to vertical flow, as well as current, then the shape of the jovi-magnetic spectrum could be remarkably Earth-like.

Voorhies, Coerte V.↗

Dynamics of the Molten Contact Line

The purpose of this program is to develop a basic understanding of how a molten material front spreads over a solid that is below its melting point, arrests, and freezes. Our hope is that the work will contribute toward a scientific knowledge base for certain new applications involving molten droplet deposition, including the "printing" of arbitrary three-dimensional objects by precise deposition of individual molten microdrops that solidify after impact. Little information is available at this time on the capillarity-driven motion and arrest of molten contact line regions. Schiaffino and Sonin investigated the arrest of the contact line of a molten microcrystalline wax spreading over a subcooled solid "target" of the same material. They found that contact line arrest takes place at an apparent liquid contact angle that depends primarily on the Stefan number S=c(T(sub f) -T(sub t)/L based on the temperature difference between the fusion point and the target temperature, and proposed that contact line arrest occurs when the liquid's dynamic contact angle approaches the angle of attack of the solidification front just behind the contact line. They also showed, however, that the conventional continuum equations and boundary conditions have no meaningful solution for this angle. The solidification front angle is determined by the heat flux just behind the contact line, and the heat flux is singular at that point. By comparing experiments with numerical computations, Schiaffino and Sonin estimated that the conventional solidification model must break down within a distance of order 0.1 - 1 microns of the contact line. The physical mechanism for this breakdown is as yet undetermined, and no first-principles theory exists for the contact angle at arrest. Schiaffino and Sonin also presented a framework for understanding how to moderate Weber number molten droplet deposition in terms of similarity laws and experimentation. The study is based on experiments with three molten materials- molten wax on solid wax, water on ice, and mercury on frozen mercury- which between them span a considerable range of the deposition/solidification similarity parameters. Correlations are obtained for the spreading velocity, spreading time scales, the spreading factor (i.e. ratio of deposited drop's final footprint radius and the drop's initial radius), post-spreading liquid oscillation amplitudes and time scales, and bulk solidification time scales. Duthaler carried out an experimental and theoretical investigation of the relationship between the liquid's apparent contact angle and the Capillary number Ca=mu U/sigma based on contact line speed, for molten materials spreading over subcooled solids. This relationship is required for modeling of melt spreading. We have adapted Voinov's methodology to the molten contact line and formulated a theoretical model for the Ca vs. contact angle relationship, based Schiaffino and Sonin#s (1997a,b) wedge-like solidification front model. With the solidification front angle taken from Schiaffino and Sonin, the model is in good agreement with the experimental results for Ca vs. contact angle. Duthaler also extended the experimental investigation of droplet deposition and contact line freezing to more materials, including solder on glass, solder on solder, water on ice, and molten microcrystalline wax on wax. The latter also included tests on inclined targets. Deposition tests have also been done with molten octacosane (C28H58) on various targets. An important objective of our program has been the development of micron-scale sensors for measuring the transient temperature at a point on the substrate surface as a molten contact line moves over it. The expectation is that this temperature history will yield a better understanding of the thermal process in the contact line region. The sensors are of the thermistor type, either 2.5 microns or 1.5 microns square, microfabricated with silicon-based technology on either pure silicon or amorphous silicon dioxide chips. Each chip has 32 sensors distributed on its surface in arrays. The time response is better than 10 ms. At the time of writing, sensor calibration is in progress. Results on thermal transients during contact line passage will be discussed at the conference. While we expect that the data will provide information on the near-contact-line heat transfer process, we also foresee possible problems. First, the spatial resolution of the sensors may be insufficient to resolve the near-contact-line region. Second, the sensors protrude about 0.5 microns above the substrate surface, and may affect the contact line motion. Third, a sensor's temperature history depends on both the heat flux distribution into it from the fusion front and the thermal properties of the substrate below it and the solidified melt between it and the fusion front. The heat flux distribution in the contact line region must therefore be unfolded from computations of the overall system's transient thermal response.

Sonin, Ain A.↗

Oceanic Tidal Mixing As a Contributor to Milankovitch-scale Climate Change

We propose that changes in the magnitude of oceanic tidal mixing on long time scales is an important, but previously unrecognized, contributor to global climate change. it is well known that Earth's orbital and rotational state changes significantly on 10(exp 4)-10(exp 5) year time scales, and that this influences the spatial and temporal pattern of incident radiation. It is widely supposed that climatic variations on these same time scales are, in large part, a response of the ocean-atmosphere-cryosphere system to this radiative forcing. Our proposal is that variations in the luni-solar tidal potential, induced by these same orbital and rotational variations, influences oceanic mixing and thus modulates meridional heat transport, by amounts which are competitive with the radiative forcing. There are some obvious differences between tidal potential and insolation. First is that the Sun and Moon both contribute to tides, whereas the radiation is entirely of solar origin. Second is that the Earth is transparent to gravity but opaque to radiation. Clipping associated with this opacity makes the radiation pattern temporal spectrum rather more complex than the tidal spectrum. A third point is that solar radiation directly delivers energy to Earth's surface whereas tidal mixing will only expedite lateral transport of heat in association with oceanic thermohaline circulation. The diurnal average insolation pattern is best parameterized via a Fourier series in time of year and Legendre polynomials in sine of latitude. Our present focus will be on the annual average terms. The Legendre degree n=0 term describes the global average insolation, and is nearly constant. The degree n=l term describes differences between northern and southern hemispheres, and the annual mean is zero. The degree n=2 term is the main contributor to the equator to pole variations, and varies with obliquity and orbital eccentricity, with the obliquity variation dominating. The lowest order decomposition of the tidal potential recognizes 3 constituents: semi-diurnal, diurnal, and long period, with solar and lunar contributions to each. Our present focus will be on long term variations in the mean square amplitude of the semi-diurnal constituent, with averaging over all the short period variations. For the solar tide that includes the day and year. For the lunar tide it includes the day, month, year, and the apsidal (8.85 year) and nodal (18.6 year) periods. We present calculations of the variations in radiative and tidal forcing for the past 3 million years. The two signals are quite similar. Both vary by approximately 1% of their respective mean values, are dominated by obliquity variations, and exhibit only secondary influence from orbital eccentricity.

Munk, Walter↗

Magnetic Probing of Core Geodynamics

To better understand geomagnetic theory and observation, we can use spatial magnetic spectra for the main field and secular variation to test core dynamical hypotheses against seismology. The hypotheses lead to theoretical spectra which are fitted to observational spectra. Each fit yields an estimate of the radius of Earth's core and uncertainty. If this agrees with the seismologic value, then the hypothesis passes the test. A new way to obtain theoretical spectra extends the hydromagnetic scale analysis of Benton to scale-variant field and flow. For narrow scale flow and a dynamically weak field by the top of Earth's core, this yields a generalized Stevenson-McLeod spectrum for the core-source field, and a secular variation spectrum modulated by a cubic polynomial in spherical harmonic degree n. The former passes the tests. The latter passes many tests, but does not describe rapid dipole decline and quadrupole rebound; some tests suggest it is a bit hard, or rich in narrow scale range. In a core geodynamo, motion of the fluid conductor does work against the Lorentz force. This converts kinetic into magnetic energy which, in turn, is lost to heat via Ohmic dissipation. In the analysis at length-scale 1/k, if one presumes kinetic energy is converted in either eddy-overturning or magnetic free-decay time-scales, then Kolmogorov or other spectra in conflict with observational spectra can result. Instead, the rate work is done roughly balances the dissipation rate, which is consistent with small-scale flow. The conversion time-scale depends on dynamical constraints. These are summarized by the magnetogeostrophic vertical vorticity balance by the top of the core, which includes anisotropic effects of rotation, the magnetic field, and the core-mantle boundary. The resulting theoretical spectra for the core-source field and its SV are far more compatible with observation. The conversion time-scale of order 120 years is pseudo-scale-invariant. Magnetic spectra of other planets may differ; however, if a transition to non-conducting fluid hydrogen in Jupiter acts as a barrier to vertical flow, as well as current, then the shape of the jovi-magnetic spectrum could be remarkably Earth-like.

Voorhies, Coerte V.↗

The absence of rapid X-ray variability in active galaxies

Variations on time scales ranging from minutes to several hours in the X-ray flux from 54 observations of 38 active galaxies are identified. The sample is composed mostly of Seyfert I galaxies but also includes radio galaxies, NELG's BL Lacs and 3C 273. Only NGC 6814 varied on time scales as short as 100 sec. No other source was observed to vary with a time scale of less than 12 hours. Large amplitude short term variations are not a characteristic of the X-ray emission from active galaxies. Upper limits on sigma sub I/I ranged from 2% for Cen A, 5% for NGC 4151, to approximately 20% for sources giving 1 ct/sec in the detector. Three objects NGC 3227, NGC 4151 and MCG 5-23-16 show variability consistent with a time scale of approximately 1 day. Ways to reconcile the rapid variability seen for NGC 6814 (and NGC 4051) with the general stability observed for the other objects are considered.

Tennant, A. F.↗

New Observations of Solar Plasma Variability from the Solar Dynamics Observatory (SDO)

The launch of the Solar Dynamics Observatory (SDO) in February 2010 now allows for continuous observations of the Sun on all times scales from seconds to years. The variations in the solar plasma on these time scales cause significant deviations in the Earth and space environments on similar time scales, such as affecting the densities and composition of particular atoms, molecules, and ions in the atmospheres of Earth and other planets. Presented and discussed will be examples of initial results from SDO that show how different temperature plasmas (from 50,OOOK to 20MK+), corresponding to different solar features in the solar atmosphere, evolve and change during solar eruptive events. The presentation will emphasize how the Solar Dynamics Observatory (SDO), the first satellite in NASA's Living with a Star program, has already improved upon current observations and how it will continue provide further insights into the variable Sun and its Heliospheric influence.

Chamberlin, Phillip C.↗

Does The Nile Reflect Solar Variability?

Historical records of the Nile water level provide a unique opportunity to investigate the possibility that solar variability influences the Earth's climate. Particularly important are the annual records of the water level, which are uninterrupted for the years 622-1470 A.D. These records are non-stationary, so that standard spectral analyses cannot adequately characterize them. Here the Empirical Mode Decomposition technique, which is designed to deal with nonstationary, nonlinear time series, becomes useful. It allows the identification of two characteristic time scales in the water level data that can be linked to solar variability: the 88 year period and a time scale of about 200 years. These time scales are also present in the concurrent aurora data. Auroras are driven by coronal mass ejections and the rate of auroras is an excellent proxy for solar variability. Analysis of auroral data contemporaneous with the Nile data shows peaks at 88 years and about 200 years. This suggests a physical link between solar variability and the low frequency variations of the Nile water level. The link involves the influence of solar variability on the North Annual Mode of atmospheric variability and its North Atlantic and Indian Oceans patterns that affect rainfall over Eastern Equatorial Africa where the Nile originates.

statistical methods↗

Wavelet Analysis of Turbulent Spots and Other Coherent Structures in Unsteady Transition

This is a secondary analysis of a portion of the Halstead data. The hot-film traces from an embedded stage of a low pressure turbine have been extensively analyzed by Halstead et al. In this project, wavelet analysis is used to develop the quantitative characterization of individual coherent structures in terms of size, amplitude, phase, convection speed, etc., as well as phase-averaged time scales. The purposes of the study are (1) to extract information about turbulent time scales for comparison with unsteady model results (e.g. k/epsilon). Phase-averaged maps of dominant time scales will be presented; and (2) to evaluate any differences between wake-induced and natural spots that might affect model performance. Preliminary results, subject to verification with data at higher frequency resolution, indicate that spot properties are independent of their phase relative to the wake footprints: therefore requirements for the physical content of models are kept relatively simple. Incidentally, we also observed that spot substructures can be traced over several stations; further study will examine their possible impact.

Lewalle, Jacques↗