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At least 343 records · Page 19
All sourcesNASA NTRSDOE OSTI
DOE OSTI2026

Comparison of juvenile white sturgeon blade strike survival through a conventional and a novel hydropower turbine

Hydropower is a globally important renewable energy source with profound impacts on aquatic organisms, including direct injury and mortality to fish that move through hydropower facilities. While it is expected that the characteristics of turbine design and operation influence the type, frequency, and magnitude of injuries suffered by entrained fish, few direct comparisons exist to illustrate differences in fish survival outcomes for conventional and novel turbine designs. This study evaluated blade strike-associated injury and mortality rates for juvenile white sturgeon (Acipenser transmontanus) passed through a model-scale turbine equipped with a runner having conventional blade profiles (thin, straight leading edges) and the same turbine equipped with a runner designed for improved fish survival (thick, slanted leading edges). In both trials, head and turbine runner rotational speeds were matched to produce five blade peripheral speeds between 15.0 and 27.6 m/s. High-speed video was captured for all turbine passage events. Fish were assessed for injuries following passage, and mortalities were assessed immediately after passage and after 48 h. Conventional runner passage resulted in 42% to 78% survival after 48 h, with approximately one-third of all tested fish killed by severing. Under the same test conditions, immediate and 48 h survival rates through the novel runner were 100% except at the highest speed condition (95.6% survival at 48 h). These results clearly indicate that turbine design has a profound effect on fish survival, and suggest that thoughtful redesign of hydropower equipment could significantly ameliorate the risks of blade strike mortality.

13 HYDRO ENERGY↗
DOE OSTI2023

Wind Fields in Category 1–3 Tropical Cyclones Are Not Fully Represented in Wind Turbine Design Standards

Abstract Offshore wind energy deployment in the U.S. is expected to increase in the years to come, with proposed wind farm sites located in regions with high risk for tropical cyclones. Yet, the wind turbine design criteria outlined by the International Electrotechnical Commission for extreme events may not account for wind field characteristics unique to tropical cyclones. To evaluate if current design standards capture the extreme conditions of these storms, we perform idealized large‐eddy simulations of three tropical cyclones (one Category 1, one Category 2, and one Category 3 storms) using the Weather Research and Forecasting model. Wind conditions near the eyewall of Cat‐1, Cat‐2, and Cat‐3 storms can exceed current design standards for offshore wind turbines. Winds at 90 m can be faster than outlined in the design criteria for Class I and Class T turbines for 50‐year recurrence periods. Wind speed shear across the turbine rotor layer is also larger than assumed in design specifications. Moreover, vertical variations in wind direction across the turbine rotor layer are large for tropical cyclones of all intensity levels, suggesting design standards should include veer, which can amplify loads in wind turbines. The existence of hurricane wind field characteristics that are not represented in design standards does not imply that damage or failure will certainly occur. Engineering safety factors incorporated in the design of the turbine's blades and structural components may prevent damage from occurring.

17 WIND ENERGY↗
DOE OSTI2021

Land-Based Wind Market Report: 2021 Edition

The U.S. Department of Energy's 2021 edition of its land-based wind market report provides an overview of key trends in the U.S. wind power market, with a focus on 2020. You can find a report, data file and presentation on the Files tab, below. Additionally, several data visualizations are available on the Visualizations tab. Highlights of this year’s update include: -Wind comprises a growing share of electricity supply: U.S. wind power capacity grew at a record pace in 2020, with 25 billion dollars invested in 16.8 GW of capacity. Wind energy output rose to account for more than 8% of the entire nation’s electricity supply, and is more than 20% in 10 states. At least 209 GW of wind are seeking transmission interconnection; 61 GW of this capacity are offshore wind and 13 GW are hybrid plants that pair wind with storage or PV. -Wind project performance has increased over time: The average capacity factor among recently built projects was over 40%, considerably higher than projects built earlier. The highest capacity factors are seen in the interior ‘wind belt’ of the country. -Turbines continue to get larger: Improved plant performance has been driven by larger turbines mounted on taller towers and featuring longer blades. In 2010, no turbines employed blades that were 115 meters in diameter or larger, but in 2020, 91% of newly installed turbines featured such rotors. Proposed projects indicate that total turbine height will continue to rise. -Low wind turbine pricing has pushed down installed project costs over the last decade: Wind turbine prices are averaging 775–850 dollars/kW. The average installed cost of wind projects in 2020 was 1,460 dollars/kW, down more than 40% since the peak in 2010, though stable for the last three years. The lowest costs were found in Texas and the (non-ISO) West. -Wind energy prices remain low, around 20 dollars/MWh in the interior of the country: After topping out at 70 dollars/MWh for power purchase agreements (PPAs) executed in 2009, the national average price of wind PPAs has dropped. In the interior ‘wind belt’ of the country, recent pricing is around 20 dollars/MWh. In the West and East, prices tend to average 30 dollars/MWh or more. These prices, which are possible in part due to federal tax support, fall below the projected future fuel costs of gas-fired generation. -Wind PPA prices are often attractive compared to wind’s grid-system market value: The value of wind in wholesale power markets is affected by the location of wind plants, their hourly output profiles, and how those characteristics correlate with real-time electricity prices and capacity markets. The market value of wind declined in 2020, following natural gas prices lower and averaging under 15 dolalrs/MWh in ERCOT, MISO, NYISO and SPP; higher values were seen in CAISO, ISO-NE and PJM. -The average levelized cost of wind energy is down to 33 dollars/MWh: Levelized costs, which exclude the impacts of federal tax incentives, vary across time and geography, but the national average stood at 33 dollars/MWh in 2020—down substantially historically, though consistent with the previous two years. Levelized costs were lowest in ERCOT, SPP, and the (non-ISO) West. -The health and climate benefits of wind in 2020 were larger than its grid-system value, and the combination of all three far exceeds the current levelized cost of wind: Wind generation reduces power-sector emissions of carbon dioxide, nitrogen oxides, and sulfur dioxide. These reductions, in turn, provide public health and climate benefits that vary regionally, but together are economically valued at an average of 76 dollars/MWh-wind nationwide in 2020. -The domestic supply chain for wind equipment is diverse: For wind projects recently installed in the U.S., domestically manufactured content is highest for nacelle assembly (>85%), towers (60-75%), and blades and hubs (30-50%), but is much lower for most components internal to the nacelle.

17 WIND ENERGY↗
DOE OSTI2022

Land-Based Wind Market Report: 2022 Edition

The U.S. Department of Energy's 2022 edition of its Land-Based Wind Market Report provides an overview of key trends in the U.S. wind power market, with a focus on 2021. You can find a report, data file and presentation on the Files tab, below. Additionally, several data visualizations are available on the Visualizations tab. Despite ongoing supply chain challenges, wind energy in 2021 continued to see strong growth, technology improvements, and low prices in the U.S. Key highlights include: Wind comprises a growing share of electricity supply: U.S. wind power capacity grew at a strong pace in 2021, with the 13.4 GW of new additions representing a $\$20$ billion investment and 32% of all newly added U.S. generation capacity. Wind energy output rose to account for more than 9% of the entire nation’s electricity supply. At least 247 GW of wind are seeking transmission interconnection; 77 GW of this capacity are offshore wind and 19 GW are hybrid plants that pair wind with storage or solar PV. Wind project performance has increased over the decades: The average capacity factor among recently built projects was nearly 40%, considerably higher than projects built earlier. The highest capacity factors are seen in the interior ‘wind belt’ of the country. Turbines continue to get larger: Improved plant performance has been driven by larger turbines mounted on taller towers and featuring longer blades. In 2011, no turbines employed blades that were 115 meters in diameter or larger, but in 2021, 89% of newly installed turbines featured such rotors. Proposed projects indicate that total turbine height will continue to rise. Low wind turbine pricing has pushed down installed project costs over the last decade: Wind turbine prices averaged $\$800$–$\$950$/kW in 2021, a 5% to 10% increase from the year prior but substantially lower than in 2010. The average installed cost of wind projects in 2021 was $\$1,500$/kW, down more than 40% since the peak in 2010, though relatively stable in recent years. The lowest costs were found in Texas and the (non-ISO) West. Wind energy prices are on the rise, but generally remain low, around $\$20$/MWh in the interior of the country with higher prices in the West and East. After topping out above $\$75$/MWh for power purchase agreements (PPAs) executed in 2009, the national average price of wind PPAs has dropped—though supply-chain pressures have resulted in increased prices in recent years. In the interior ‘wind belt’ of the country, recent pricing is around $\$20$/MWh. In the West and East, prices tend to average above $\$30$/MWh. These prices, which are possible in part due to federal tax support, fall below the projected future fuel costs of gas-fired generation. Wind PPA prices are often attractive compared to wind’s grid-system market value: The value of wind in wholesale power markets is affected by the location of wind plants, their hourly output profiles, and how those characteristics correlate with real-time electricity prices and capacity markets. The market value of wind increased in 2021, averaging $\$16$/MWh in MISO, $\$19$/MWh in SPP, $\$23$/MWh in NYISO, $\$31$/MWh in ERCOT, $\$33$/MWh in PJM, $\$44$/MWh in ISO-NE, and $\$48$/MWh in CAISO. The average levelized cost of wind energy was $\$32$/MWh for plants built in 2021: Levelized costs, which exclude the impacts of federal tax incentives, vary across time and geography. The national average stood at $\$32$/MWh in 2021—down substantially historically, though relatively stable in recent years. Levelized costs were lowest in ERCOT, SPP, and the (non-ISO) West. The health and climate benefits of wind in 2021 were larger than its grid-system value, and the combination of all three far exceeds the current levelized cost of wind: Wind generation reduces power-sector emissions of carbon dioxide, nitrogen oxides, and sulfur dioxide. These reductions, in turn, provide public health and climate benefits that vary regionally, but together are economically valued at an average of over $\$90$/MWh-wind for plants built in 2021.

17 WIND ENERGY↗
DOE OSTI2022

Evaluation of Fish-Related Properties of Kaplan Turbines at the Design Phase: Simulation-based outcomes vs. Experimental Data

The development of turbine technology faces growing demands to maximize the survival of migratory fish passing through turbine flows. In this context, two strategies have emerged for quantifying hazardous hydraulic conditions: computer-based evaluations at design stage and recordings with autonomous sensors deployed in prototypes. The former is a desktop evaluation with many modelling assumptions (idealization) and the latter is a field technique that introduces various unknown and uncontrollable factors (uncertainty.) The present work introduces and implements a third method based on test rig measurements and the corresponding computer-based predictions of conditions that negatively affect fish survivability. The experimental work was conducted in a five-bladed Kaplan turbine model in which miniaturized autonomous sensors (SF Mini, developed at the Pacific Northwest National Laboratory, U.S.) measured fish-relevant hydraulic features. The modelling work involved flow simulations according to industry practices and the representation of fish trajectories through the simulated flow conditions. We compared both the experimental measurements and CFD outcomes and discussed the challenges and advantages of the modelling strategies, as well as the benefits for turbine engineers in need of incorporating effective design concepts to mitigate fish mortality through turbines.

Romero-Gomez, Pedro↗
DOE OSTI2022

Circular Economy Modeling Efforts at NREL: Circular Economy Lifecycle Analysis and Visualization (CELAVI) and the Circular Economy Agent-Based Model (ABM)

Circular Economy (CE) aims at decoupling human activities from economic growth and resource use. While CE economic and environmental benefits are often touted by its proponents, increased circularity and improved sustainability do not necessarily go hand-in-hand. The Circular Economy Lifecycle Assessment and Visualization (CELAVI) framework simulates the transition of renewable energy technology supply chains towards circularity and quantifies spatially explicit environmental impacts and supply chain costs. Using wind blade end-of-life (EOL) management as a case study, this presentation will highlight CELAVI's features. Furthermore, envisioned extension to the framework could improve the stakeholder decision model by accounting for logistical and other factors. The CELAVI framework could be leveraged to answer crucial questions regarding renewables EOL management.

circular economy↗
DOE OSTI2021

Sandia NRT Blade-0 Laboratory Modal Survey

Modal testing was performed on the Sandia NRT Blade-0 in building A-60 at NREL/NWTC. Modal testing was intended to identify the fundamental frequencies of the blade. The blade was cantilevered to the A-60 test stand. Fundamental frequencies were identified using impact modal testing. Additional tests included free-decay testing to quantify damping at small displacements. Small-displacement modal testing aims to minimize the influence of aerodynamic damping; roaming accelerometer impact testing with the development of a dynamic frame model enabled visualization of mode shapes.

17 WIND ENERGY↗
DOE OSTI2023

Examination of an Electrified Bar Rack Fish Guidance Device for Hydropower Turbines

The potential of hydropower turbines to cause injury or mortality to fish is a concern. To reduce this risk, engineers have begun to develop a conically arranged, cantilevered electrified bar rack (Center Sender). This device is proposed to be mounted within the intake of a turbine, guiding downstream-passing fish towards the center of the turbine where blade velocities are lower and blades are thicker, likely reducing the potential for fish to be injured. A simplified version was installed in a flume for testing with Rainbow trout (Oncorhynchus mykiss) while examining several parameters such as electrification, bar spacing, bar angle, and water velocity. The most effective settings were observed to be a water velocity of 1.0 m s -1 with all bars installed at an angle of 40° with electrification on. Other combinations were still effective but had varying results. A minimal proportion (2.3%) of fish passed at lower velocities with bars electrified and mounted at 20°, suggesting that while it functions well as a guidance device in high-velocity conditions, it performs better as a barrier at lower velocities. The study suggests that the Center Sender has promising potential for reducing the harmful effects of hydropower turbines on fish populations by guiding them away from stressors. Further research is needed, but current results encourage its potential use in hydropower operations.

13 HYDRO ENERGY↗
DOE OSTI2021

Benchmarks of Global Clean Energy Manufacturing, 2014-2016

Benchmarks of Global Clean Energy Manufacturing provides an assessment of the global state of clean energy manufacturing over 3 years from 2014 to 2016. Four technologies were examined - wind turbine components (blade, tower, nacelle), crystalline silicon (c-Si) solar photovoltaic (PV) modules, light-duty vehicle (LDV) lithium-ion battery (LIB) cells, and light-emitting diode (LED) packages for lighting and other consumer products. The analysis looked along each technology's manufacturing supply chain, including processing raw materials, producing required subcomponents, and assembling final products. Manufacturing supply chains were evaluated across 13 economies that are the primary manufacturing hubs for these technologies. This Highlights summary report features key findings across the manufacturing supply chains.

42 ENGINEERING↗
DOE OSTI2024

MODELING, IMPLEMENTATION AND CONTROL OF A CVT BASED PTO FOR A SMALL SCALE MHK-TURBINE IN LOW FLOW SPEED OPERATION

Modeling, implementation, field testing and control of a power takeoff (PTO) device equipped with a ball-type continuously variable transmission (B-CVT) for a small marine hydrokinetic (MHK) turbine deployed from a floating unmanned autonomous mobile catamaran platform is described. The turbine is a partially submerged multi-blade undershot waterwheel (USWW). A validated numerical torque model for the MHK turbine has been derived and a speed controller has been developed, implemented and tested in the field. The dependance of the power generated as a function of number and submergence level of turbine blades has been investigated and the number of blades that maximizes power production is determined. Bench and field testing in support of characterizing the power conversion capabilities of MHK turbine and PTO are described. Detailed results of the final torque and power coefficient models, the controls architecture, and the MHK turbine performance with varying numbers of blades are provided.

Pimentel, Hugo↗
DOE OSTI2025

TEAMER – Enhanced Flow Measurement for Aquantis Tidal Turbine Test

The AQ10 is a floating, two-bladed, passive yawing tidal turbine developed by Aquantis that has a 10-meterrotor diameter, 160 kW rating, and employs reliable off-the-shelf powertrain and power conversion hardware. Aquantis is planning on-water turbine power performance and loads (blade loading and thrust)testing, where the turbine will be pushed through still water up to 4 knots and placed in a ‘station keeping’ tow in a tidal race up to its rated speed. On-water testing will be conducted using vessels and floating platforms on the sea surface to improve ease of testing and reduce disturbance to the environment. In this TEAMER project, Pacific Northwest National Laboratory (PNNL) will conduct water velocity and turbulence measurements in front of the turbine during on-water testing using acoustic Doppler instrumentation. By measuring both the tidal current flowing past the turbine and the resulting electrical power output, test results will provide a power curve (power vs flow speed) for the turbine up to rated power. Measurements of turbulence and velocity shear in front of the rotor will also provide information to assess the structural response of the rotor blades. With this analysis, Aquantis can use the performance and loads data to validate Tidal Bladed and OpenFAST simulations of the measured operating conditions. Measuring the power performance of a prototype turbine is a valuable step to improving device development and conducting a complete power performance assessment to IEC/TS 62600-200 standards in the future.

16 TIDAL AND WAVE POWER↗
DOE OSTI2024

Hygrothermal aging and recycling effects on mechanical and thermal properties of recyclable thermoplastic glass fiber composites

Abstract Glass fiber‐reinforced polymer composites are widely used in marine applications, including renewable energy devices and submarines, due to their strength‐to‐weight ratios and corrosion resistance. As sustainability becomes more important, recyclable thermoplastic composites are gaining attention in marine energy applications. These materials face harsh conditions such as high chloride water, UV radiation, pressurization, and thermal cycling, which can affect their durability and recyclability. This study examines the impact of hygrothermal aging on the recyclability of an Elium glass fiber (GF) composite. Samples were mechanically ground for recycling, and mechanical and thermal properties were compared between aged and unaged samples. After seawater aging, the tensile strength and modulus of the unaged composite dropped by 25% and 13% respectively, due to water ingress along the fiber‐matrix interface. The recycled composite showed reduced flexural strength as the long fiber composite was converted into short fibers during the process. Differential scanning calorimetry (DSC) revealed no change in glass transition temperature after aging. Weight loss (25%) was attributed to the thermal stability of the glass fibers. Dynamic mechanical analysis (DMA) showed that the storage modulus increased with aging, and fracture analysis confirmed a mixed mode of failure for aged composites. Highlights Hygrothermal aging lowers mechanical performance of Elium® GF composites. Failure mechanism tends to be matrix cracking and interface bonding. Glass transition temperature is not reduced by hygrothermal aging. Fractured composite was successfully recycled via thermoforming. Flexural strength of the recycled composite is lower.

17 WIND ENERGY↗
DOE OSTI2020

Low cost textile-grade carbon-fiber epoxy composites for automotive and wind energy applications

Carbon fiber reinforced polymer composites are highly desirable for automotive and wind energy applications due to advantages associated with weight reduction, high stiffness and strength, durability, and recyclability. The high cost of carbon fiber has been a limiting factor in its widespread adoption in non-aerospace applications. A low cost (estimated < $11 per kg) wide tow (450-600k) carbon fiber derived from textile grade polyacrylonitirile precursor, and hence called Textile Grade Carbon Fiber (TCF) is introduced in this paper. Fundamental aspects of the TCF are discussed along with a detailed characterization of its mechanical properties. Two manufacturing processes relevant to automotive and wind energy applications are considered, namely-compression molding and resin infusion. Furthermore, at various stages the TCF has been compared to commercial non-aerospace 50k carbon fiber composite. Detailed physical and mechanical properties including tensile, flexural, compression, and interlaminar shear properties are reported and compared to non-aerospace carbon fiber composite. The results provide a means for designers and end-users in the automotive and wind energy sector to consider different forms of economical non-aerospace carbon fibers.

42 ENGINEERING↗
DOE OSTI2022

CAMERA: A method for cost-aware, adaptive, multifidelity, efficient reliability analysis

Estimating probability of failure in aerospace systems is a critical requirement for flight certification and qualification. Failure probability estimation involves resolving tails of probability distributions, and Monte Carlo sampling methods are intractable when expensive high-fidelity simulations have to be queried. Here, we propose a method to use models of multiple fidelities that trade accuracy for computational efficiency. Specifically, we propose the use of multifidelity Gaussian process models to efficiently fuse models at multiple fidelity, thereby offering a cheap surrogate model that emulates the original model at all fidelities. Furthermore, we propose a novel sequential acquisition function based experiment design framework that can automatically select samples from appropriate fidelity models to make predictions about quantities of interest at the highest fidelity. We use our proposed approach in an importance sampling setting and demonstrate our method on the failure level set and probability estimation on synthetic test functions and two real-world applications, namely, the reliability analysis of a gas turbine engine blade using a finite element method and a transonic aerodynamic wing test case using Reynolds-averaged Navier-Stokes equations. We show that our method predicts the failure boundary and probability more accurately and at a fraction of the computational cost compared with using just a single expensive high-fidelity model. Finally, we show that our sequential approach is guaranteed to asymptotically converge to the true failure boundary with high probability.

97 MATHEMATICS AND COMPUTING↗
DOE OSTI2024

Wind Turbine Aeroelastic Stability in OpenFAST

Wind turbines are growing in size and increasingly suffer from aeroelastic instabilities. Unfortunately, numerical models often show inconsistent results during verification studies. We address this gap by first introducing novel linearization capabilities within the open-source aero-hydro-servo-elastic framework OpenFAST. Next, a code-to-code benchmark study is presented that compares modal parameters between OpenFAST and HAWCStab2 for a land-based version of the International Energy Agency 15-MW reference wind turbine modeled with quasi-steady aerodynamics. The two solvers are in strong agreement except for discrepancies in the second rotor flapwise modes. The differences are attributed to the torsional flexibility of the tower, which is assumed torsionally stiff in the OpenFAST model. Work is ongoing to close this modeling gap. The aeroelastic stability of a low-specific-power land-based wind turbine is also investigated. The impact of design choices is discussed, high-lighting how narrow the margins are between a stable design and an unstable design.

17 WIND ENERGY↗
DOE OSTI2025

Simplified Model and Approach to Transform Infrared Surface Temperature to Film Effectiveness in a Conjugate Heat Transfer Experiment

In the pursuit of more efficient gas turbines, film cooling is a critical technology. This article describes a simplified engineering model based on a one-dimensional thermal resistance network. The model is used to relate film-cooling effectiveness and heat transfer augmentation to local overall cooling effectiveness in a conjugate flat plate experiment. Here, this article presents experimental proof-of-concept data to demonstrate the potential for this model. In contrast to previous approaches, neither the wall heat flux nor the adiabatic wall temperature is required to estimate the local film-cooling performance parameters. The model predicts surface temperatures that are within the experimental uncertainties over the range for which the model is trained and to within five percent when the model is extrapolated to higher coolant channel Reynolds numbers. This article is relevant to conjugate test rigs that can measure the hot-surface temperature distribution with and without film cooling. This information may also be relevant to designers as a method to approximate surface temperatures or used as an approximate heat transfer model for optimization studies.

advanced turbines↗
DOE OSTI2020

Evaluation of Steam Cycle Upgrades to Improve the Competitiveness of U.S. Coal Power Plants (Final Scientific / Technical Report)

Increasing the competitiveness of the existing pulverized-coal utility fleet in the United States may be achieved by decreasing heat rate, via increases in steam cycle efficiency through upgraded steam temperatures and use of latest technology available in steam turbine and blading design. The average net plant efficiency of the US coal-fired fleet is approximately 33% (HHV). Plant efficiency increases to approximately 41.4% (HHV) at 1,350°F (732°C) steam temperature. However, achieving these Advanced Ultra-Super Critical (AUSC) steam conditions requires the use of advanced high-temperature materials. While there has been a significant amount of DOE-funded materials R&D, most of the related design work has focused on new (greenfield) units, rather than on opportunities to retrofit this advanced technology to the existing utility fleet. If technology, based upon the advanced materials required for AUSC steam conditions, may be applied to the existing fleet, using an economically viable retrofit, a higher capacity factor can be expected as a result of the increased plant competitiveness. The Electric Power Research Institute (EPRI) was awarded a project by the US Department of Energy to examine the technical and economic feasibility of a series of steam cycle upgrades to the two most prevalent types of U.S. coal power plants: 2,400 psig (16.6 MPa) subcritical and 3,500 psig (24.1 MPa) supercritical pulverized coal units. The nine upgrade options that were originally being considered included increasing the main and reheat steam temperatures from 1,000°F (538°C) to 1,100°, 1,200°, and 1,350°F (593°C, 649°C, and 732°C) while holding the steam pressures constant at their original design values, and cases where just the main steam or reheat steam temperatures were increased. The objective was to minimize the modifications required to the existing power plant while still providing a significant improvement in heat rate. The upgrade options assumed that the boiler enclosure envelope remained unchanged from each base case, and that all applicable OEM design guidelines for normal commercial units were imposed. For the highest temperature supercritical case, an option of using a low-pressure molten salt loop to transfer heat from the furnace to the steam was examined. The first major task of the work scope was designed to examine the technical feasibility of various upgrade options, while the subsequent work determined economic viability of the technically feasible upgrade options. Prior to evaluating the effect of these increased temperatures, a “base case” model of a subcritical and supercritical PC boiler was created, which was used for comparative purposes. Upgrade options were evaluated at full-load, part-load and dynamic transient conditions. Once the technical feasibility of each upgrade option was evaluated, the economic value of the heat rate improvement of each feasible option was determined by detailed modeling of unit dispatch in several regional power markets. The dispatch model was used to estimate the amount of revenue from power sales the upgraded unit would receive in comparison to a non-upgraded version of the same power plant. As a parallel task to the dispatch analysis, the capital cost of implementing the upgrades was estimated. The capital cost estimates were then compared to the increased revenue estimated by the dispatch modeling to determine the economic attractiveness of each upgrade option. Several upgrade options were determined to be technically feasible. The net present value (NPV) of the costs for steam cycle upgrades considered in this study ranged from approximately $\$$111 to $\$$130 million. The economic modeling results show that the unit dispatch changes resulting from steam cycle upgrades are relatively small, due largely to heat rate (and operating cost) changes being relatively small. Additionally, the cost of each upgrade exceeds the net revenue increases associated with the upgrade case. Note that the breakeven values are higher for subcritical retrofits, but the capital costs for the subcritical upgrades are also slightly higher. In typical new pulverized coal plants, fuel accounts for approximately 25% of the cost of electricity (COE), while capital costs represent around 50% of the COE. Therefore, in order to improve the heat rate by 4% one can only afford to increase the capital cost by 2%, at the same cost of electricity. The conclusion of this study is that without a cost for emitting CO 2 , it will be difficult to pay for significant efficiency improvements on plants firing low cost coals.

01 COAL, LIGNITE, AND PEAT↗