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Probabilistic Risk Assessment for Decision Making During Spacecraft Operations

Decisions made during the operational phase of a space mission often have significant and immediate consequences. Without the explicit consideration of the risks involved and their representation in a solid model, it is very likely that these risks are not considered systematically in trade studies. Wrong decisions during the operational phase of a space mission can lead to immediate system failure whereas correct decisions can help recover the system even from faulty conditions. A problem of special interest is the determination of the system fault protection strategies upon the occurrence of faults within the system. Decisions regarding the fault protection strategy also heavily rely on a correct understanding of the state of the system and an integrated risk model that represents the various possible scenarios and their respective likelihoods. Probabilistic Risk Assessment (PRA) modeling is applicable to the full lifecycle of a space mission project, from concept development to preliminary design, detailed design, development and operations. The benefits and utilities of the model, however, depend on the phase of the mission for which it is used. This is because of the difference in the key strategic decisions that support each mission phase. The focus of this paper is on describing the particular methods used for PRA modeling during the operational phase of a spacecraft by gleaning insight from recently conducted case studies on two operational Mars orbiters. During operations, the key decisions relate to the commands sent to the spacecraft for any kind of diagnostics, anomaly resolution, trajectory changes, or planning. Often, faults and failures occur in the parts of the spacecraft but are contained or mitigated before they can cause serious damage. The failure behavior of the system during operations provides valuable data for updating and adjusting the related PRA models that are built primarily based on historical failure data. The PRA models, in turn, provide insight into the effect of various faults or failures on the risk and failure drivers of the system and the likelihood of possible end case scenarios, thereby facilitating the decision making process during operations. This paper describes the process of adjusting PRA models based on observed spacecraft data, on one hand, and utilizing the models for insight into the future system behavior on the other hand. While PRA models are typically used as a decision aid during the design phase of a space mission, we advocate adjusting them based on the observed behavior of the spacecraft and utilizing them for decision support during the operations phase.

dynamic fault trees↗

Using Wind Observations from Nearby Aircraft to Update the Optimal Descent Trajectory in Real-Time

The ability to meet a controlled time of arrival during a continuous descent operation will enable environmentally friendly and fuel efficient descent operations while simultaneously maintaining airport throughput. However, if the wind forecast used to compute the initial trajectory plan is not accurate enough, the guidance system will need to correct time deviations from the plan during the execution of the descent. Previous work proposed an on-board guidance strategy based on model predictive control, which repeatedly updates the trajectory plan in real-time from the current aircraft state and for the remainder of the descent. However, the wind conditions downstream, at altitudes not explored yet, were difficult to predict due to the lack of data. This paper shows the potential benefits of using wind observations, broadcast by nearby aircraft, to reconstruct the wind profile downstream. The wind profile in the trajectory optimization problem is modeled as a spline, which control points are updated to fit the observations before re-planning the trajectory. Results from simulations using realistic wind data show that the performance of model predictive control significantly improves when including up-to-date wind observations, in terms of time and energy errors at the metering fix and fuel consumption.

Dalmau, Ramon↗

Analysis of Strategic Conflict Management Approaches as Applied to Simulated UAM Operations

This report presents the results of a comparison analysis of candidate Strategic Conflict Management (SCM) strategies as applied to Urban Air Mobility (UAM) operations. The SCM strategies investigated included: no SCM, resource scheduling (RS), resource flow rates (FR), area-based flow rates (AR), and conflict detection and resolution (CR). The study evaluated each strategy against the same 3 levels of flight demand in a representative airspace construct for the Dallas/Fort Worth region. The study also accounted for different levels of uncertainty in operational planning and equivalent levels of trajectory following error. In the analysis, we compared the SCM strategies’ effectiveness in reducing the need for the tactical conflict management layer to act and looked at the metrics of unmitigated losses-of-separation (LOS), flight delays imposed by strategic planning, and throughput of the overall airspace. The study results indicated that the CR strategy was the most effective at reducing LOS and percentage of flights with LOS, even in the presence of trajectory error when uncertainty is accounted for in planning. Thus, if the objective is to reduce the number of actions that the tactical conflict management layer will have to take, in terms of conflicts that may need to be resolved, CR is the strategy to use. The FR strategy was found to be the worst at reducing LOS and percentage of flights with LOS. Thus, it is not very effective at reducing the actions required by a tactical conflict management layer. In the airspace tested, the demand was high enough to produce unacceptable levels of flight delay and reductions of throughput when the SCM strategies were implemented. This was especially evident at the higher levels of trajectory uncertainty and error. The need to account for expected levels of uncertainty becomes more and more important as the demand level increases and as the level of trajectory error increases. This is because the likelihood of flights with LOS increases as the density of operations increases and as the level of trajectory error increases. Accounting for uncertainty in the SCM strategies improves the strategy effectiveness with respect to LOS but increases delays and reduces throughput. Thus, there is a tradeoff between scalability and allowable levels of uncertainty. That is, we can implement an air traffic management construct that allows high levels of uncertainty, but we can expect that same system to have limits on scalability that may be evident even at small demand levels, such as those used in this study. Therefore, the results in this study indicate that an air traffic system should attempt to implement mechanisms appropriate for reducing uncertainty where possible in order to increase the chances for scalability. And this increased level of predictability of operations needs to be balanced with mechanisms for ensuring flexibility when operational conditions and plans need to change, even though those types of changes should be the exception rather than the rule under normal conditions. The study also introduced a trade space that could serve as a mechanism for selecting the appropriate SCM strategy in a trade-off between uncertainty and error, mean flight delay, and the LOS metrics (which this study equates to the potential for tactical conflict management actions). The optimal solution for a given airspace, demand level, and other factors, could likely be a combination of SCM strategies, although this study only compared the use of a single SCM strategy at a time. The CR strategy appeared to have the best opportunity for scalability by limiting the number of potential tactical actions to nearly zero.

Strategic Conflict Management↗

Hyperspectral Imager-Tracker

The Hyperspectral Imager-Tracker (HIT) is a technique for visualization and tracking of low-contrast, fast-moving objects. The HIT architecture is based on an innovative and only recently developed concept in imaging optics. This innovative architecture will give the Light Prescriptions Innovators (LPI) HIT the possibility of simultaneously collecting the spectral band images (hyperspectral cube), IR images, and to operate with high-light-gathering power and high magnification for multiple fast- moving objects. Adaptive Spectral Filtering algorithms will efficiently increase the contrast of low-contrast scenes. The most hazardous parts of a space mission are the first stage of a launch and the last 10 kilometers of the landing trajectory. In general, a close watch on spacecraft operation is required at distances up to 70 km. Tracking at such distances is usually associated with the use of radar, but its milliradian angular resolution translates to 100- m spatial resolution at 70-km distance. With sufficient power, radar can track a spacecraft as a whole object, but will not provide detail in the case of an accident, particularly for small debris in the onemeter range, which can only be achieved optically. It will be important to track the debris, which could disintegrate further into more debris, all the way to the ground. Such fragmentation could cause ballistic predictions, based on observations using high-resolution but narrow-field optics for only the first few seconds of the event, to be inaccurate. No optical imager architecture exists to satisfy NASA requirements. The HIT was developed for space vehicle tracking, in-flight inspection, and in the case of an accident, a detailed recording of the event. The system is a combination of five subsystems: (1) a roving fovea telescope with a wide 30 field of regard; (2) narrow, high-resolution fovea field optics; (3) a Coude optics system for telescope output beam stabilization; (4) a hyperspectral-mutispectral imaging assembly; and (5) image analysis software with effective adaptive spectral filtering algorithm for real-time contrast enhancement.

Agurok, Llya↗

Initial Navigation Analysis for the Europa Multiple Flyby Mission Concept

Earth and spacecraft-based observations of the Jovian moon Europa have identified it as the most plausible habitat for extraterrestrial life in our solar system. Recently, NASA has formed a Europa Mission Concept to potentially explore this icy world with a sophisticated instrument suite operating from a spacecraft in orbit about Jupiter. Candidate trajectories have been designed that would use the Jovian moons to repeatedly bring the spacecraft near Europa, providing multiple observation opportunities over the mission duration. This paper describes navigation analyses associated with these trajectories that are being assessed for their operational feasibility. The analysis includes determination of the ΔV requirements for the mission concept and notional spacecraft ephemeris knowledge capability.

Nandi, Sumita↗

Minimum Climb to Cruise Noise Trajectories Modeled for the High Speed Civil Transport

The proposed U.S. High Speed Civil Transport (HSCT) will revolutionize commercial air travel by providing economical supersonic passenger service to destinations worldwide. Unlike the high-bypass turbofan engines that propel today's subsonic airliners, HSCT engines will have much higher jet exhaust speeds. Jet noise, caused by the turbulent mixing of high-speed exhaust with the surrounding air, poses a significant challenge for HSCT engine designers. To resolve this challenge, engineers have designed advanced mixer rejector nozzles that reduce HSCT jet noise to airport noise certification levels by entraining and mixing large quantities of ambient air with the engines' jet streams. Although this works well during the first several minutes of flight, far away from the airport, as the HSCT gains speed and climbs, poor ejector inlet recovery and ejector ram drag contribute to poor thrust, making it advantageous to turn off the ejector. Doing so prematurely, however, can cause unacceptable noise levels to propagate to the ground, even when the aircraft is many miles from the airport. This situation lends itself ideally to optimization, where the aircraft trajectory, throttle setting, and ejector setting can be varied (subject to practical aircraft constraints) to minimize the noise propagated to the ground. A method was developed at the NASA Lewis Research Center that employs a variation of the classic energy state approximation: a trajectory analysis technique historically used to minimize climb time or fuel burned in many aircraft problems. To minimize the noise on the ground at any given throttle setting, high aircraft altitudes are desirable; but the HSCT may either climb quickly to high altitudes using a high, noisy throttle setting or climb more slowly at a lower, quieter throttle setting. An optimizer has been programmed into NASA's existing aircraft and noise analysis codes to balance these options by dynamically choosing the best altitude-velocity path and throttle setting history. The noise level standard, or metric, used in the optimizer should be one that accurately reflects the subjective annoyance levels of ground-based observers under the flight path. A variety of noise metrics are available, many of which are practical for airport-vicinity noise certification. Unlike airport noise, however, the HSCT's climb noise will be characterized by relatively low noise levels, long durations, and low-frequency spectra. The noise metrics used in these calculations are based on the recommendations of researchers at the NASA Langley Research Center, who have correlated the flyover noise annoyance levels of actual laboratory subjects with a variety of measurements. Analysis of data from this optimizer has shown that significant reductions in noise may be obtained with trajectory optimization. And since throttling operations are performed in the subsonic portion of the climb path (where thrust is plentiful), only small penalties in HSCT range or fuel performance occur.

Berton, Jeffrey J.↗

Roles of Engineering Correlations in Hypersonic Entry Boundary Layer Transition Prediction

Efforts to design and operate hypersonic entry vehicles are constrained by many considerations that involve all aspects of an entry vehicle system. One of the more significant physical phenomenon that affect entry trajectory and thermal protection system design is the occurrence of boundary layer transition from a laminar to turbulent state. During the Space Shuttle Return To Flight activity following the loss of Columbia and her crew of seven, NASA's entry aerothermodynamics community implemented an engineering correlation based framework for the prediction of boundary layer transition on the Orbiter. The methodology for this implementation relies upon similar correlation techniques that have been is use for several decades. What makes the Orbiter boundary layer transition correlation implementation unique is that a statistically significant data set was acquired in multiple ground test facilities, flight data exists to assist in establishing a better correlation and the framework was founded upon state of the art chemical nonequilibrium Navier Stokes flow field simulations. Recent entry flight testing performed with the Orbiter Discovery now provides a means to validate this engineering correlation approach to higher confidence. These results only serve to reinforce the essential role that engineering correlations currently exercise in the design and operation of entry vehicles. The framework of information related to the Orbiter empirical boundary layer transition prediction capability will be utilized to establish a fresh perspective on this role, and to discuss the characteristics which are desirable in a next generation advancement. The details of the paper will review the experimental facilities and techniques that were utilized to perform the implementation of the Orbiter RTF BLT Vsn 2 prediction capability. Statistically significant results for multiple engineering correlations from a ground testing campaign will be reviewed in order to describe why only certain correlations were selected for complete implementation to support the Shuttle Program. Historical Orbiter flight data on early boundary layer transition due to protruding gap fillers will be described in relation to the selected empirical correlations. In addition, Orbiter entry flight testing results from the BLT Flight Experiment will be discussed in relation to these correlations. Applicability of such correlations to the entry design problem will be reviewed, and finally a perspective on the desirable characteristics for a next generation capability based on high fidelity physical models will be provided.

Campbell, Charles H.↗

Supervisory Control with Dual Tasking in Post G-Transition Vehicle Landings

BACKGROUND Landing during exploration spaceflight may consist of both planned automated supervisory control and unplanned crew override. Supervisory control, particularly when performed under cognitive load with additional monitoring tasks, is essential for ensuring overall mission success during landing contingencies. Evaluating performance in a relevant Human Landing System (HLS) supervisory landing task after long-duration microgravity exposure can help identify potential risks from human error and sensorimotor alterations. Adaptive changes in the sensorimotor system can manifest during g-transitions as spatial disorientation. Although training and landing aids facilitate successful landings despite disorientation, these adaptive changes may heighten cognitive demand, which must be considered in the landing strategy. It is important to characterize these effects as soon as possible following the G-transition while the sensorimotor system remains in a state of adaptive flux to inform appropriate countermeasures. METHODS A Multi-attribute Lunar Table Battery (MALTB) task was developed for an iOS tablet device to provide flexible crew testing and training capabilities in-flight and on the ground. Elements of the tablet task were derived from the Multi-Attribute Task Battery (MATB, Cegarra et al. 2020). The task requires crew members to study a map of a planned landing site and memorizing the terrain and surface landmarks to inform potential divert maneuvers during landing. The user will oversee a series of approaches through touchdown simulations on the tablet with an external camera view of the Lunar surface. The primary responsibility of the crew member will be to execute a divert if the guidance recommended site is erroneous (e.g., the guidance projected landing target is not within 10m of the planned landing site center), or the projected landing site is no longer suitable due to surface obstacles. Considering vehicle maneuverability and fuel reserves, the divert capabilities will diminish as the task progresses. In cases where a divert is initiated, a new landing target will need to be designated by the user and will be evaluated for the proximity to the original pre-planned site. A secondary operational monitoring task will challenge the user's cognitive reserve by requiring the user to maintain several gauges within acceptable limits and respond to a visual indicator while completing the landing approach. Outcome measures include distance from the planned landing site to the user-initiate divert landing location, ground slope at the new landing site, time to divert, the ability to accomplish the secondary monitoring tasks, and perceived workload. The tablet task is being evaluated in a ground-based study to determine the learning effect of first-time users. The tablet task will be utilized in a flight study to test performance multiple times postflight. Future potential testing in-flight have been identified for capsules with iOS tablet devices. Multi-attribute Lunar Table Battery Task MALTB comprises video footage of thirty distinct landing conditions. The landing scenarios feature various landing sites (n = 3), hazardous object sizes (n = 6), sun azimuth degrees (n = 4), camera modes (i.e., fixed or gimbaled), and navigation bias (i.e., true or false). Each seventy second trial uses a sixty-degree constant glideslope trajectory. The application architecture and layout include user identification setup and data storing, a guided walkthrough of the task and interface components, practice mode for task familiarization, and a modified Bedford workload scale administered following task completion. The time-based dependent measures are saved locally to the iOS Files application and post-processing scripts have been developed to evaluate the remaining measures of performance. RELEVANCE This project will deliver an operational demonstration of crew monitoring capability following spaceflight and identify potential deficits that may require remediation. Comparison of individual vestibular and cognitive changes with crew performance will help better characterize the landing risks associated with sensorimotor alterations. ACKNOWLEDGEMENTS: This project is funded by NASA’s Human Research Program Human Health Countermeasures Element. REFERENCES Cegarra J, Valery B, Avril E, Calmettes C, Navarro J (2020) OpenMATB: A Multi-Attribute Task Battery promoting task customization, software extensibility and experiment replicability. Behav Res Methods 52:1980-1990 doi: 10.3758/s13428-020-01364-w

Matthew McDonnell↗

How to Make a Microgravity Drop Tower for Your Classroom

Microgravity is quite often seen as exotic and special as astronauts float around in the International Space Station, eating MM's in mid-air, and performing science experiments, all done seemingly without gravity being present. Surprisingly enough, up on the ISS there is about 90 of the same gravity that holds you to the floor in your classroom or museum exhibit hall. Participate in this session and you will understand that and more. You can use simple devices to demonstrate microgravity conditions in your classroom or museum exhibit hall. This will be the same microgravity condition that astronauts experience on the ISS, just for a much shorter period of time. Contrary to popular opinion of some people, microgravity is NOT caused by zero gravity up there. Microgravity on the ISS is due to free fall within the Earth's gravitational field. That means you can drop an item in free fall in your classroom and museum exhibit hall and that item will experience microgravity. In this session, a short theory segment will explain and reinforce these concepts so that you may explain to others. The session will concentrate on showing the session participants how to make an effective, but inexpensive, drop tower for use in the classroom. Such a drop tower may be used to reinforce classroom instruction in physics and forces motion as well as serve as a platform for student investigations, classroom competitions, and student science or technology fair entries. Session participants will build their own simple microgravity experiment and operate them in a drop tower, compare results, and modify their experiment based on results. This material is also useful for public demonstrations at school open houses, travelling museum exhibits, fixed museum exhibits, and independent student projects or experiments. These free fall concepts also connect terrestrial demonstrations with planetary moon motion, comet trajectory, and more.

forces↗

CASPEr: an Approach to Characterize the Performance of Onboard Airplane Energy State and Automation Mode Prediction Functions

The Commercial Aviation Safety Team (CAST) has identified a set of safety enhancements to mitigate the risks of loss of control in-flight (LOCI) accidents and incidents involving commercial transport airplanes. In support of this, NASA has been developing technologies intended to enhance flight crew awareness of airplane systems, attitude, and energy state. This report describes preliminary ideas for a methodology to assess the goodness of onboard airplane energy state and automation mode prediction functions. The methodology is intended to contribute to the goal of moving these prediction technologies to the readiness level required for transition to industry and reduce the technology certification risks. In addition, this report describes a simulation-based approach named CASPEr (Characterization of Airplane State Prediction Error) to characterize the performance of these predictive functions over a wide range of operational conditions. The first exploratory version of this approach is described. The bulk of the report documents the initial results of tests to characterize the performance of an airplane trajectory prediction function. Future reports will give additional performance characterization results for this function and a complete description of the proposed methodology to assess such functions.

Torres-Pomales, Wilfredo↗

Airspace Technology Demonstration 3 (ATD-3): Dynamic Weather Routes (DWR) Technology Transfer Document Summary Version 1.0

Airspace Technology Demonstration #3 (ATD-3) is part of NASA's Airspace Operations and Safety Program (AOSP) - specifically, its Airspace Technology Demonstrations (ATD) Project. ATD-3 is a multiyear research and development effort which proposes to develop and demonstrate automation technologies and operating concepts that enable air navigation service providers and airspace users to continuously assess weather, winds, traffic, and other information to identify, evaluate, and implement workable opportunities for flight plan route corrections that can result in significant flight time and fuel savings in en route airspace. In order to ensure that the products of this tech-transfer are relevant and useful, NASA has created strong partnerships with the FAA and key industry stakeholders. This summary document and accompanying technology artifacts satisfy the first of three Research Transition Products (RTPs) defined in the Applied Traffic Flow Management (ATFM) Research Transition Team (RTT) Plan. This transfer consists of NASA's legacy Dynamic Weather Routes (DWR) work for efficient routing for en-route weather avoidance. DWR is a ground-based trajectory automation system that continuously and automatically analyzes active airborne aircraft in en route airspace to identify opportunities for simple corrections to flight plan routes that can save significant flying time, at least five minutes wind-corrected, while avoiding weather and considering traffic conflicts, airspace sector congestion, special use airspace, and FAA routing restrictions. The key benefit of the DWR concept is to let automation continuously and automatically analyze active flights to find those where simple route corrections can save significant time and fuel. Operators are busy during weather events. It is more effective to let automation find the opportunities for high-value route corrections.

ATD-3↗

The Final Approach Spacing Tool

A system for assisting terminal area air traffic controllers in the management and control of arrival traffic, referred to as the Final Approach Spacing Tool (FAST), is being developed at NASA Ames Research Center. In a cooperative program, NASA and FAA have efforts underway to install and evaluate the system at the Dallas/Fort Worth Terminal Radar Approach Control facility. This paper will review the software architecture, the algorithms components, and the human-machine interface. The system is based on continuous updates of a detailed trajectory analyses of all arrival aircraft. FAST interprets the results of these trajectory analyses to build an efficient and procedurally acceptable plan for the arrival traffic that consists of a sequence, schedule, and runway assignment. The system utilizes a heuristically-based conflict resolution algorithm to build a solution trajectory that satisfies the plan, It extracts a series of speed and heading advisories from the solution trajectory to assist the controller in efficiently managing and controlling the arrival traffic down to the runway. The advisories are displayed in a graphical format to the controller. In addition to the radar tracking data, the system also relies on a series of data bases. These data bases contain aircraft performance models, airline preferred operational procedures, airspace structure, air traffic procedural models, and a three dimensional wind model. Field evaluation of FAST is expected to begin in 1994.

Davis, Thomas J.↗

Autonomous Small Body Mapping and Spacecraft Navigation

Current methods for pose and shape estimation of small bodies, such as comets and asteroids, rely on extensive ground support and significant use of radiometric measurements using the Deep Space Network. The Stereo-Photoclinometry (SPC) technique is currently used to provide detailed topological information about a small body as well as its absolute orientation and position. While this technique has produced very accurate estimates, the core algorithm cannot be run in real-time and requires a team of scientists on the ground who must communicate with the spacecraft in order to oversee SPC operations. Autonomous onboard navigation addresses these limitations by eliminating the need for human oversight. In this paper, we present an optimization-based estimation algorithm for navigation that allows the spacecraft to autonomously approach and maneuver around an unknown small body by mapping its geometric shape, estimating its orientation, and simultaneously determining the trajectory of the center of mass of the small body. We show the effectiveness of the proposed algorithm using simulated data from a previous flight mission to Comet 67P.

Bhaskaran, Shyamkumar↗

In-Flight Operation of the Dawn Ion Propulsion System Through Start of the Vesta Cruise Phase

The Dawn mission, part of NASA's Discovery Program, has as its goal the scientific exploration of the two most massive main-belt asteroids, Vesta and Ceres. The Dawn spacecraft was launched from Cape Canaveral Air Force Station on September 27, 2007 on a Delta-II 7925H-9.5 (Delta-II Heavy) rocket that placed the 1218 kg spacecraft into an Earth-escape trajectory. On-board the spacecraft is an ion propulsion system (IPS) which will provide most of the delta V needed for heliocentric transfer to Vesta, orbit capture at Vesta, transfer to Vesta science orbits, departure and escape from Vesta, heliocentric transfer to Ceres, orbit capture at Ceres, and transfer to Ceres science orbits. The Dawn ion design is based on the design validated on NASA's Deep Space 1 (DS1) mission. However, because of the very substantial (11 km/s) delta V requirements for this mission Dawn requires two engines to complete its mission objectives. The power processor units (PPU), digital control and interface units (DCIU) slice boards and the xenon control assembly (XCA) are derivatives of the components used on DS1. The DCIUs and thrust gimbal assemblies (TGA) were developed at the Jet Propulsion Laboratory. The spacecraft was provided by Orbital Sciences Corporation, Sterling, Virginia, and the mission is managed by and operated from the Jet Propulsion Laboratory. Dawn partnered with Germany, Italy and Los Alamos National Laboratory for the science instruments. The mission is led by the principal investigator, Dr. Christopher Russell, from the University of California, Los Angeles. The first 80 days after launch were dedicated to the initial checkout of the spacecraft followed by cruise to Mars. Cruise thrusting leading to a Mars gravity assist began on December 17, 2007 and was successfully concluded as planned on October 31, 2008. During this time period the Dawn IPS was operated mostly at full power for approximately 6500 hours, consumed 71.7 kg of xenon and delivered approximately 1.8 km/s of delta V to the spacecraft. The thrusting to Mars was followed by a coasting period of approximately 3.5 months that included a Mars flyby in February of 2009. The Mars flyby provided a gravity assist (MGA) for a plane change and approximately 1 km/s of heliocentric energy increase and is the only part of the mission following launch in which a needed velocity change is not accomplished by the IPS. During the coast period IPS was operated for a trajectory correction maneuver and for engineering tests but was not operated for primary propulsion. Closest approach to Mars occurred as planned on February 17, 2009 and was followed by another coasting period of just under 4 months in duration. During this last coasting phase IPS was operated only for routine maintenance activities and for system engineering tests. Deterministic thrusting for heliocentric transfer to Vesta resumed on June 8, 2009. IPS will be operated for over two years at throttled power levels leading to arrival at Vesta in September of 2011 and arrival at Ceres in February 2015. This paper provides an overview of Dawn's mission objectives and the results of Dawn IPS mission operations through the start of deterministic thrusting to Vesta.

Garner, Charles E.↗

Improving FermiI Orbit Determination and Prediction in an Uncertain Atmospheric Drag Environment

Orbit determination and prediction of the Fermi Gamma-ray Space Telescope trajectory is strongly impacted by the unpredictability and variability of atmospheric density and the spacecrafts ballistic coefficient. Operationally, Global Positioning System point solutions are processed with an extended Kalman filter for orbit determination, and predictions are generated for conjunction assessment with secondary objects. When these predictions are compared to Joint Space Operations Center radar-based solutions, the close approach distance between the two predictions can greatly differ ahead of the conjunction. This work explores strategies for improving prediction accuracy and helps to explain the prediction disparities. Namely, a tuning analysis is performed to determine atmospheric drag modeling and filter parameters that can improve orbit determination as well as prediction accuracy. A 45 improvement in three-day prediction accuracy is realized by tuning the ballistic coefficient and atmospheric density stochastic models, measurement frequency, and other modeling and filter parameters.

orbit prediction↗

In-Flight Operation of the Dawn Ion Propulsion System Through Survey Science Orbit at Ceres

The Dawn mission, part of NASA's Discovery Program, has as its goal the scientific exploration of the two most massive main-belt objects, Vesta and Ceres. The Dawn spacecraft was launched from the Cape Canaveral Air Force Station on September 27, 2007 on a Delta-II 7925H- 9.5 (Delta-II Heavy) rocket that placed the 1218-kg spacecraft onto an Earth-escape trajectory. On-board the spacecraft is an ion propulsion system (IPS) developed at the Jet Propulsion Laboratory which will provide a total delta V of 11 km/s for the heliocentric transfer to Vesta, orbit capture at Vesta, transfer between Vesta science orbits, departure and escape from Vesta, heliocentric transfer to Ceres, orbit capture at Ceres, and transfer between Ceres science orbits. Full-power thrusting from December 2007 through October 2008 was used to successfully target a Mars gravity assist flyby in February 2009 that provided an additional delta V of 2.6 km/s. Deterministic thrusting for the heliocentric transfer to Vesta resumed in June 2009 and concluded with orbit capture at Vesta on July 16, 2011. From July 2011 through September 2012 the IPS was used to transfer to all the different science orbits at Vesta and to escape from Vesta orbit. Cruise for a rendezvous with Ceres began in September 2012 and concluded with the start of the approach to Ceres phase on December 26, 2015, leading to orbit capture on March 6, 2015. Deterministic thrusting continued during approach to place the spacecraft in its first science orbit, called RC3, which was achieved on April 23, 2015. Following science operations at RC3 ion thrusting was resumed for twenty-five days leading to arrival to the next science orbit, called survey orbit, on June 3, 2015. The IPS will be used for all subsequent orbit transfers and trajectory correction maneuvers until completion of the primary mission in approximately June 2016. To date the IPS has been operated for over 46,774 hours, consumed approximately 393 kg of xenon, and provided a delta V of over 10.8 km/s to the spacecraft. The IPS performance characteristics are very close to the expected performance based on analysis and testing performed pre-launch. This paper provides an overview of Dawn's mission objectives and the results of Dawn IPS mission operations through arrival at the second science orbit at Ceres.

Garner, Charles E.↗

A Robust Vision-Based Algorithm for Detecting and Classifying Small Orbital Debris Using On-Board Optical Cameras

This study develops a vision-based detection and classification algorithm to address the challenges of in-situ small orbital debris environment classification including debris observability and instrument requirements for small debris observation. The algorithm operates in near real time and is robust under difficult tasks in moving objects classification such as multiple moving objects, objects with various movement trajectories and speeds, very small or faint objects, and substantial background motion. The performance of the algorithm is optimized and validated using space image data available through simulated environments generated using NASA Marshall Space Flight Centers Dynamic Star Field Simulator of on-board optical sensors and cameras.

Zamani, Yasin↗

Trajectory analysis for low thrust maneuvers and drag decay in low earth orbit operations

In the 1990s low earth orbit operations are anticipated which will include the Space Station and orbital maneuver vehicle (OMV) serviceable satellites requiring reboost and coordination despite drag decay and oblateness effects. A low thrust targeting algorithm is described applicable to Space Station and the OMV. Tests were made with Space Station reboost requirements and an oblate gravity model. The reboost requirements were determined based on projected station growth, atmospheric models and anticipated flight profiles. The targeting algorithm as well as the algorithm for predicting orbital decay are perturbation formulations of more 'transcendental' systems and are used in interactive personal computer simulations. Performance results and a discussion for the Space Station problems are provided.

Kelly, W. D.↗