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At least 343 records · Page 19

Remote Sensing and Spatial Growth Modeling Coupled with Air Quality Modeling to Assess the Impact of Atlanta, Georgia on the Local and Regional Environment

The growth of cities, both in population and areal extent, appears as an inexorable process. Urbanization continues at a rapid rate, and it is estimated that by the year 2025, 80 percent of the world s population will live in cities. Directly aligned with the expansion of cities is urban sprawl. Urban expansion has profound impacts on a host of biophysical, environmental, and atmospheric processes. A reduction in air quality over cities is a major result of these impacts. Strategies that can be directly or indirectly implemented to help remediate air quality problems in cities and that can be accepted by political decision makers and the general public are now being explored to help bring down air pollutants and improve air quality. The urban landscape is inherently complex and this complexity is not adequately captured in air quality models, particularly the Community Multiscale Air Quality (CMAQ) model that is used to assess whether urban areas are in attainment of EPA air quality standards, primarily for ground level ozone. This inadequacy of the CMAQ model to sufficiently respond to the heterogeneous nature of the urban landscape can impact how well the model predicts ozone pollutant levels over metropolitan areas and ultimately, whether cities exceed EPA ozone air quality standards. We are exploring the utility of high-resolution remote sensing data and urban spatial growth modeling (SGM) projections as improved inputs to the meteorology component of the CMAQ model focusing on the Atlanta, Georgia metropolitan area as a case study. These growth projections include "business as usual" and "smart growth" scenarios out to 2030. The growth projections illustrate the effects of employing urban heat island mitigation strategies, such as increasing tree canopy and albedo across the Atlanta metro area, which in turn, are used to model how ozone and air temperature can potentially be moderated as impacts on elevating ground-level ozone, as opposed to not utilizing heat island mitigation strategies. The National Land Cover Dataset at 30m resolution is being used as the land use/land cover input and aggregated to the 4km scale for the MM5 mesoscale meteorological model and the (CMAQ) modeling schemes. Use of these data have been found to better characterize low density/suburban development as compared with USGS 1km land use/land cover data that have traditionally been used in modeling. Air quality prediction for future scenarios to 2030 is being facilitated by land use projections using a spatial growth model. Land use projections were developed using the 2030 Regional Transportation Plan developed by the Atlanta Regional Commission, the regional planning agency for the area. This allows the State Environmental Protection agency to evaluate how these transportation plans will affect future air quality. The coupled SGM and air quality modeling approach provides insight on what the impacts of Atlanta s growth will be on the local and regional environment and exists as a mechanism that can be used by policy makers to make rationale decisions on urban growth and sustainability for the metropolitan area in the future.

Quattrochi, Dale A.↗

Desktop Audits: Overview, Case Studies, Guidance

The Energy Independence and Security Act (EISA) of 2007 requires that federal agencies audit 25% of their 3.1 billion square feet of covered facilities each year. Several newer, advanced options such as monitoring-based commissioning, fault detection and diagnostics, and energy management systems can help support data collection and analysis to be used for EISA compliance. The Federal Energy Management Program's (FEMP’s) Audit Decision Tree, Audit Definitions, and FEMP Guidance can be used by Agencies to determine the best approaches to evaluate their facilities. FEMP continues to develop additional resources to support agencies in meeting EISA compliance. This presentation gives an overview of desktop audits, including case studies and guidance.

37 INORGANIC, ORGANIC, PHYSICAL, AND ANALYTICAL CH↗

Evaluation of Joint Cyber/Safety Risk in Nuclear Power Systems

This report presents an analysis of the Emergency Core Cooling System (ECCS) for a generic Boiling Water Reactor (BWR)-4 NPP. The Electric Power Research Institute (EPRI) developed Hazards and Consequences Analysis for Digital Systems (HAZCADS) process is applied to the ECCS and its subsystems to identify unsafe control actions (UCAs) which act as possible cyber events of concern. The analysis is performed for two design basis events: Small-break Loss of Coolant Accident (SLOCA) and general transients (TRANS), such as unintended reactor trip. In previous work, HAZCADS UCAs were combined with other cyber-attack analysis to develop a risk-informed approach; however, this was for a single system. This report explores advanced systems engineering modeling approaches to model the interactions between digital assets across multiple systems which may be targeted by cyber adversaries. The complex and interdependent design of digital systems has the potential to introduce emergent cyber properties that are generally not covered by hazard analyses nor formal nuclear Probabilistic Risk Assessment (PRA). The R&D and supporting analysis presented here explores approaches to predict and manage how interdependent system properties effect risk. To show the potential impact of a successful cyber-attack to formal PRA event tree probabilities, HAZCADS analysis was also used. HAZCADS was also used to model the automatic depressurization system (ADS) automatic actuation. This analysis extended to an integrated system analysis for common-cause failure (CCF). In this aspect, the HAZCADS analysis continued by analyzing plant design details for system connectivity in support of critical plant functions. A dependency matrix was developed to depict the integrated functionality of the interconnected systems. Areas of potential CCF are indicated. Future work could include adversary attack development to show how CCF could be caused, resulting in PRA events. Across the multiple systems that comprise the ECCS, the analysis shows that the change in such probabilities was very different between systems. This indicates that some systems have a larger potential risk impact from successful cyber-attack or digital failure, which indicates a need for these systems to have a higher priority for design and defensive measures. Furthermore, we were able to establish that a risk analysis using any arbitrary threat model establishes an ordering of components with regard to cyber-risk. This ordering can be used to influence the overall system design with an eye to lowering risk, or as a way to understand real-time risk to operational systems based on a current threat landscape. Expert knowledge of both the analysis process and the system being analyzed is required to perform a HAZCADS analysis. The need for a tiered risk analysis is demonstrated by the results of this report.

21 SPECIFIC NUCLEAR REACTORS AND ASSOCIATED PLANTS↗

Multispectral signatures in relation to ground control signature using nested sampling approach

The author has identified the following significant results. In a cooperative study with USGS personnel, it has been possible to detect a 1.5 by 1 mile anomaly on ERTS CCT data, in the pine-covered mountains of western Nevada. This anomalous area is about 3-5 times larger than that of the known geobotanical anomaly which lies centrally within the area. The site has been studied on the ground and bi-directional reflectances, relative to BaS04 obtained for 40 trees, using both in-vivo techniques (similar to cherry picker operations) and field determinations of cut branches. The anomaly can be seen best by color transparencies made from 5/4, 6/4, 7/4 ratioed digital data, the 3 ratios each being coded by one of 3 colors (blue, green, and red).

Lyon, R. J. P.↗

Multi-Scale Fractal Analysis of Image Texture and Pattern

Fractals embody important ideas of self-similarity, in which the spatial behavior or appearance of a system is largely scale-independent. Self-similarity is a property of curves or surfaces where each part is indistinguishable from the whole. The fractal dimension D of remote sensing data yields quantitative insight on the spatial complexity and information content contained within these data. Analyses of Normalized Difference Vegetation Index (NDVI) images of homogeneous land covers near Huntsville, Alabama revealed that the fractal dimension of an image of an agricultural land cover indicates greater complexity as pixel size increases, a forested land cover gradually grows smoother, and an urban image remains roughly self-similar over the range of pixel sizes analyzed(l0 to 80 meters). The forested scene behaves as one would expect-larger pixel sizes decrease the complexity of the image as individual clumps of trees are averaged into larger blocks. The increased complexity of the agricultural image with increasing pixel size results from the loss of homogeneous groups of pixels in the large fields to mixed pixels composed of varying combinations of NDVI values that correspond to roads and vegetation. The same process occur's in the urban image to some extent, but the lack of large, homogeneous areas in the high resolution NDVI image means the initially high D value is maintained as pixel size increases. The slope of the fractal dimension-resolution relationship provides indications of how image classification or feature identification will be affected by changes in sensor resolution.

Emerson, Charles W.↗

Fairfax Water Resources: Estimating Urban Flood Susceptibility, Historical Flooding Extent, and Land Cover Change in Fairfax County, Virginia to Aid in Flood Mitigation Planning

Between 2000 and 2020, Fairfax County, Virginia experienced extreme weather events that caused severe flooding and degradation of roads, businesses, and other public property. A single flood event on July 8th, 2019 resulted in $14.8 million in damages. These flood events routinely impact the community, often resulting in power outages, school closures, and downed trees. The Fairfax County Department of Public Works and Environmental Services partnered with DEVELOP to explore how remotely sensed data could be integrated to support its current flood mitigation efforts. This project used environmental factors such as elevation, slope, and topographic wetness index from Earth observation derived data to map flood susceptibility. We utilized Landsat 5 Thematic Mapper (TM), Landsat 7 Enhanced Thematic Mapper Plus (ETM+), Landsat 8 Operational Land Imager (OLI), Sentinel-1 C-Band Synthetic Aperture Radar (C-SAR), and Sentinel-2 Multispectral Instrument (MSI) to map historic flooding events in Fairfax County. These maps will support flood management practices for the Fairfax County Department of Public Works and Environmental Services through the integration of remotely sensed data. Our results show that developed areas in the county are more susceptible to flooding, coinciding with analysis of flood factors, which indicated that imperviousness and tree canopy were the most influential drivers in flood susceptibility. Other results show that using Earth observations to map historical flooding is limited in urban areas due to false positives from SAR imagery between water and shadows. Further research is necessary to evolve the historical flood mapping technique if Earth observations are to be incorporated in future historical flood analysis.

Kaitlynn Hietpas↗

The Role of Remote Sensing in Assessing Forest Biomass in Appalachian South Carolina

Information is presented on the use of color infrared aerial photographs and ground sampling methods to quantify standing forest biomass in Appalachian South Carolina. Local tree biomass equations are given and subsequent evaluation of stand density and size classes using remote sensing methods is presented. Methods of terrain analysis, environmental hazard rating, and subsequent determination of accessibility of forest biomass are discussed. Computer-based statistical analyses are used to expand individual cover-type specific ground sample data to area-wide cover type inventory figures based on aerial photographic interpretation and area measurement. Forest biomass data are presented for the study area in terms of discriminant size classes, merchantability limits, accessibility (as related to terrain and yield/harvest constraints), and potential environmental impact of harvest.

Shain, W.↗

Northern Rockies Ecological Conservation: Leveraging Earth Observations to Monitor and Predict Populations of Federally Threatened Whitebark Pine (Pinus albicaulis) across the Intermountain West

Whitebark pine (WBP; Pinus albicaulis) is an ecologically important species in North America. As a federally listed threatened species, an understanding of WBP habitat, distribution, and health is important for the natural resource managers of the National Park Service, United States Forest Service, Bureau of Land Management, Fish and Wildlife Service, and non-profit organizations such as the Whitebark Pine Ecosystem Foundation. Previous attempts to develop models of WBP habitat suitability and distribution lack confidence in their validity and integrity for these organizations. The updated models of habitat suitability and distribution developed by this study would provide managers with a capability to be employed in the conservation and future research direction for WBP. Thus, we developed a habitat suitability model of WBP at a high spatial resolution (Landsat 9 Operational Land Image-2, National Land Cover Database, NASA Shuttle Radar Topography Mission; 30m pixels) using a generalized logistic regression with an area under the curve value of 0.754. We extracted spectral reflectance signatures from overlapped ground sample points and Sentinel-2 Multispectral Instrument. The spectral signature analysis indicates WBP is separable from other tree species. We also utilized a visual validation approach and random forest (RF) modeling to separate WBP from limber pine. Through visual validation the RF classifier successfully identified 8out of 10 WBP trees gathered through ground truth points. Additionally, we achieved an overall accuracy of 91%in our confusion matrix for the distribution model using a dependent validation approach. The derived products from this study allow project partners to assess current suitable habitat and apparent health status in areas of identified WBP occurrence, providing data to aid future research regarding WBP health.

Sentinel-2↗

Changes in the Extent of Surface Mining and Reclamation in the Central Appalachians Detected Using a 1976-2006 Landsat Time Series

Surface mining and reclamation is the dominant driver of land cover land use change (LCLUC) in the Central Appalachian Mountain region of the Eastern U.S. Accurate quantification of the extent of mining activities is important for assessing how this LCLUC affects ecosystem services such as aesthetics, biodiversity, and mitigation of flooding.We used Landsat imagery from 1976, 1987, 1999 and 2006 to map the extent of surface mines and mine reclamation for eight large watersheds in the Central Appalachian region of West Virginia, Maryland and Pennsylvania. We employed standard image processing techniques in conjunction with a temporal decision tree and GIS maps of mine permits and wetlands to map active and reclaimed mines and track changes through time. For the entire study area, active surface mine extent was highest in 1976, prior to implementation of the Surface Mine Control and Reclamation Act in 1977, with 1.76% of the study area in active mines, declining to 0.44% in 2006. The most extensively mined watershed, Georges Creek in Maryland, was 5.45% active mines in 1976, declining to 1.83% in 2006. For the entire study area, the area of reclaimed mines increased from 1.35% to 4.99% from 1976 to 2006, and from 4.71% to 15.42% in Georges Creek. Land cover conversion to mines and then reclaimed mines after 1976 was almost exclusively from forest. Accuracy levels for mined and reclaimed cover was above 85% for all time periods, and was generally above 80% for mapping active and reclaimed mines separately, especially for the later time periods in which good accuracy assessment data were available. Among other implications, the mapped patterns of LCLUC are likely to significantly affect watershed hydrology, as mined and reclaimed areas have lower infiltration capacity and thus more rapid runoff than unmined forest watersheds, leading to greater potential for extreme flooding during heavy rainfall events.

Townsend, Philip A.↗

Variations in Bedrock and Vegetation Cover Modulate Subsurface Water Flow Dynamics of a Mountainous Hillslope

Abstract Predicting the hydrological response of watersheds to climate disturbances requires a detailed understanding of the processes connecting hillslopes and streams. Using a network of soil moisture and temperature sensors, electrical resistivity tomography monitoring, and a weather station we assess the above and below‐ground processes driving the hydrological response of a hillslope during snowmelt and summer monsoon. The transect covers bedrock and vegetation gradients, with a steep upper part characterized by shallow bedrock, and gentle lower part underlain by colluvium. The main vegetation cover is conifers on the upper, and grass and veratrum on the lower part. Combined with a simplified hydrological model, we show that the thin soil layer of the steep slope acts as a preferential flow path, leading to mostly shallow lateral flow, interrupted by vertical flow, mostly at tree locations, and likely facilitated by flow along fractures and roots. Vertical flow and upstream‐driven groundwater dynamics are prevailing at the colluvium, presenting a very different hydrological behavior compared to the upper part. These results show that subsurface structure and features have a strong control on the hydrological response of a hillslope and that those can create considerably varying hydrological dynamics across small spatial scales.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

Accelerating Random Forest Classification on GPU and FPGA

Random Forests (RFs) are a commonly used machine learning method for classification and regression tasks spanning a variety of application domains, including bioinformatics, business analytics, and software optimization. While prior work has focused primarily on improving performance of the training of RFs, many applications, such as malware identification, cancer prediction, and banking fraud detection, require fast RF classification. In this work, we accelerate RF classification on GPU and FPGA. In order to provide efficient support for large datasets, we propose a hierarchical memory layout suitable to the GPU/FPGA memory hierarchy. We design three RF classification code variants based on that layout, and we investigate GPU- and FPGA-specific considerations for these kernels. Our experimental evaluation, performed on an Nvidia Xp GPU and on a Xilinx Alveo U250 FPGA accelerator card using publicly available datasets on the scale of millions of samples and tens of features, covers various aspects. First, we evaluate the performance benefits of our hierarchical data structure over the standard compressed sparse row (CSR) format. Second, we compare our GPU implementation with cuML, a machine learning library targeting Nvidia GPUs. Third, we explore the performance/accuracy tradeoff resulting from the use of different tree depths in the RF. Finally, we perform a comparative performance analysis of our GPU and FPGA implementations. Our evaluation shows that for high accuracy targets, our GPU implementation yields 5-9x speedup over CSR, and up to a 2x speedup over cuML.

FPGA, Xilinx FPGA, GPU, Random Forest classificati↗

The Circular Velocity Curve of the Milky Way from 5–25 kpc Using Luminous Red Giant Branch Stars

We present a sample of 254,882 luminous red giant branch (LRGB) stars selected from the APOGEE and LAMOST surveys. By combining photometric and astrometric information from the Two Micron All Sky Survey and Gaia survey, the precise distances of the sample stars are determined by a supervised machine-learning algorithm: the gradient-boosted decision trees. To test the accuracy of the derived distances, member stars of globular clusters (GCs) and open clusters are used. The tests by cluster member stars show a precision of about 10% with negligible zero-point offsets, for the derived distances of our sample stars. The final sample covers a large volume of the Galactic disk(s) and halo of 0 < R < 30 kpc and |Z| ≤ 15 kpc. The rotation curve (RC) of the Milky Way across the radius of 5 ≲ R ≲ 25 kpc has been accurately measured with ~54,000 stars of the thin disk population selected from the LRGB sample. The derived RC shows a weak decline along R with a gradient of -1.83 ± 0.02 (stat.) ± 0.07 (sys.) km s -1 kpc -1 , in excellent agreement with the results measured by previous studies. The circular velocity at the solar position, yielded by our RC is 234.04 ± 0.08 (stat.) ± 1.36 (sys.) km s -1 , again in great consistency with other independent determinations. From the newly constructed RC, as well as constraints from other data, we have constructed a mass model for our Galaxy, yielding a mass of the dark matter halo of M 200 = (8.05 ± 1.15) × 10 11 M ⊙ with a corresponding radius of R 200 = 192.37 ± 9.24 kpc and a local dark matter density of 0.39 ± 0.03 GeV cm -3 .

79 ASTRONOMY AND ASTROPHYSICS↗

Development of a Software Safety Process and a Case Study of Its Use

Research in the year covered by this reporting period has been primarily directed toward: continued development of mock-ups of computer screens for operator of a digital reactor control system; development of a reactor simulation to permit testing of various elements of the control system; formal specification of user interfaces; fault-tree analysis including software; evaluation of formal verification techniques; and continued development of a software documentation system. Technical results relating to this grant and the remainder of the principal investigator's research program are contained in various reports and papers.

Knight, J. C.↗

The European Russia Drought Atlas (1400-2016 CE)

We present the European Russia Drought Atlas (ERDA) that covers the East European Plain to the Ural Mountains from 1400–2016 CE. Like the Old World Drought Atlas (OWDA) for the Euro-Mediterranean region, the ERDA is a one-half degree gridded reconstruction of summer Palmer Drought Severity Indices estimated from a network of annual tree-ring chronologies. Ensemble point-by-point regression is used to generate the ERDA with the identical protocols used for developing the OWDA. Split calibration/validation tests of the ERDA indicate that it has significant skill over most of its domain and is much more skillful than the OWDA where they overlap in the western part of ERDA domain. Comparisons to historical droughts over European Russia additionally support the ERDA’s overall validity. The ERDA has been spatially smoothed and infilled using a local regression method to yield a spatially complete drought atlas back to 1400 CE. EOF analysis indicates that there are three principal modes of hydroclimatic variability in the ERDA. After Varimax rotation, these modes correlate significantly with independent climate data sets extending back to the late nineteenth century in a physically interpretable way and relate to atmospheric circulation dynamics of droughts and heatwaves over European Russia based on more recent instrumental data.

Cook, Edward R.↗

Biooptical variability in the Greenland Sea observed with the Multispectral Airborne Radiometer System (MARS)

A site-specific ocean color remote sensing algorithm was developed and used to convert Multispectral Airborne Radiometer System (MARS) spectral radiance measurements to chlorophyll-a concentration profiles along aircraft tracklines in the Greenland Sea. The analysis is described and the results given in graphical or tabular form. Section 2 describes the salient characteristics and history of development of the MARS instrument. Section 3 describes the analyses of MARS flight segments over consolidated sea ice, resulting in a set of altitude dependent ratios used (over water) to estimate radiance reflected by the surface and atmosphere from total radiance measured. Section 4 presents optically weighted pigment concentrations calculated from profile data, and spectral reflectances measured in situ from the top meter of the water column; this data was analyzed to develop an algorithm relating chlorophyll-a concentrations to the ratio of radiance reflectances at 441 and 550 nm (with a selection of coefficients dependent upon whether significant gelvin presence is implied by a low ratio of reflectances at 410 and 550 nm). Section 5 describes the scaling adjustments which were derived to reconcile the MARS upwelled radiance ratios at 410:550 nm and 441:550 nm to in situ reflectance ratios measured simultaneously on the surface. Section 6 graphically presents the locations of MARS data tracklines and positions of the surface monitoring R/V. Section 7 presents stick-plots of MARS tracklines selected to illustrate two-dimensional spatial variability within the box covered by each day's flight. Section 8 presents curves of chlorophyll-a concentration profiles derived from MARS data along survey tracklines. Significant results are summarized in Section 1.

Mueller, James L.↗

Utilizing NASA Earth Observing System (EOS) Data to Determine Ideal Planting Locations for Wetland Tree Species in St. Bernard Parish, Louisiana

St. Bernard Parish, in southeast Louisiana, is rapidly losing coastal forests and wetlands due to a combination of natural and anthropogenic disturbances (e.g. subsidence, saltwater intrusion, low sedimentation, nutrient deficiency, herbivory, canal dredging, levee construction, spread of invasive species, etc.). After Hurricane Katrina severely impacted the area in 2005, multiple Non-Governmental Organizations (NGOs) have worked not only on rebuilding destroyed dwellings, but on rebuilding the ecosystems that once protected the citizens of St. Bernard Parish. Volunteer groups, NGOs, and government entities often work separately and independently of each other and use different sets of information to choose the best planting sites for coastal forests. Using NASA EOS, NRCS soil surveys, and ancillary road and canal data in conjunction with ground truthing, the team created maps of optimal planting sites for several species of wetland trees to aid in unifying these organizations, who share a common goal, under one plan. The methodology for this project created a comprehensive Geographic Information System (GIS) to help identify suitable planting sites in St. Bernard Parish. This included supplementing existing elevation data using LIDAR data and classifying existing land cover in the study area from ASTER multispectral satellite data. Low altitude AVIRIS hyperspectral imagery was used to assess the health of vegetation over an area near the intersection of the Mississippi River Gulf Outlet Canal (MRGO) and Bayou la Loutre. Historic extent of coastal forests was mapped using aerial photos from USGS collected between 1952 and 1956. The final products demonstrated the utility of combining NASA EOS with other geospatial data in assessing, monitoring, and restoring of coastal ecosystems in Louisiana. This methodology also provides a useful template for other ecological forecasting and coastal restoration applications.

Reahard, Ross↗

Modeling long-term changes in forested landscapes and their relation to the Earth's energy balance

The dynamics of the forested parts of the Earth's surface on time scales from decades to centuries are discussed. A set of computer models developed at Oak Ridge National Laboratory and elsewhere are applied as tools. These models simulate a landscape by duplicating the dynamics of growth, death and birth of each tree living on a 0.10 ha element of the landscape. This spatial unit is generally referred to as a gap in the case of the forest models. The models were tested against and applied to a diverse array of forests and appear to provide a reasonable representation for investigating forest-cover dynamics. Because of the climate linkage, one important test is the reconstruction of paleo-landscapes. Detailed reconstructions of changes in vegetation in response to changes in climate are crucial to understanding the association of the Earth's vegetation and climate and the response of the vegetation to climate change.

Shugart, H. H.↗

A systems genetic analysis identifies putative mechanisms and candidate genes regulating vessel traits in poplar wood

Wood is the water conducting tissue of tree stems. Like most angiosperm trees, poplar wood contains water-conducting vessel elements whose functional properties affect water transport and growth rates, as well as susceptibility to embolism and hydraulic failure during water stress and drought. Here we used a unique hybrid poplar pedigree carrying genomically characterized chromosomal insertions and deletions to undertake a systems genomics analysis of vessel traits. We assayed gene expression in wood forming tissues from clonal replicates of genotypes covering dosage quantitative trait loci with insertions and deletions, genotypes with extreme vessel trait phenotypes, and control genotypes. A gene co-expression analysis was used to assign genes to modules, which were then used in integrative analyses to identify modules associated with traits, to identify putative molecular and cellular processes associated with each module, and finally to identify candidate genes using multiple criteria including dosage responsiveness. These analyses identified known processes associated with vessel traits including stress response, abscisic acid and cell wall biosynthesis, and in addition identified previously unexplored processes including cell cycle and protein ubiquitination. We discuss our findings relative to component processes contributing to vessel trait variation including signaling, cell cycle, cell expansion, and cell differentiation.

59 BASIC BIOLOGICAL SCIENCES↗