Results for “Uncertainty management” — Page 19

NASA NTRS1992

ASpect: A new spectrum and line analysis package for IRAF

We examined several publicly available spectral analysis software packages looking for one with enough functionality and versatility to meet the analysis needs of astronomers during the next decade. None of those examined can satisfactorily support the wide variety of panchromatic science programs that are now becoming possible. Furthermore, we concluded that none of these packages can be simply modified to include critical functions because of their original (limited) designs. During the next two years we will write a new spectral analysis package, ASpect, that will incorporate the latest analysis techniques for astronomical spectra in all wavelength domains. The ASpect package has several functional requirements. It must operate on spectra from a wide variety of ground-based and space-based instruments spanning wavelengths from radio to gamma rays. It must accommodate non-linear dispersion relations. It must provide a variety of functions, individually or in combination, with which to fit spectral features and the continuum. It is vitally important that known bad data be masked and that, uncertainties be propagated throughout the calculations in order for astronomers to evaluate the reliability of results. Finally, this new package must provide a powerful, intuitive graphical user interface to handle the burden of data input/output (I/O), on-line 'help,' selection of relevant features for analysis, plotting and graphical interaction, and data base management--all in a comprehensible environment. We anticipate that ASpect will take the form of an external package in IRAF (such as the NOAO and STSDAS packages) and will be layered upon the IRAF virtual Operating System to make it available on as many platforms as possible, while making it resistant to changes in operating systems and compilers. Our choice of IRAF is motivated by its portability, its wide use within the astronomical community, and its rich set of existing user applications.

Hulbert, S. J.↗

NASA NTRS2023

PACE Technical Report Series, Volume 11: The PACE Postlaunch Airborne eXperiment (PACE-PAX)

The Plankton, Aerosol, Cloud, ocean Ecosystem (PACE; https://pace.gsfc.nasa.gov) mission is NASA's latest and greatest effort to study the ocean-atmosphere system and build upon the legacy of previous satellite missions that have revolutionized our understanding of our home planet. By using advanced radiometric and polarimetric instruments to measure ocean color and key atmospheric variables, PACE aims to provide new insights into the complex interactions between the ocean, atmosphere, and biosphere. This information will be critical for improving our ability to model and predict changes in the Earth's climate, as well as to manage and conserve our planet's valuable natural resources. Performance assessments and science data product validation is a critical process for any Earth Science space-borne mission, as it involves assessing and verifying the quality of the data products generated by the mission while it is in orbit, as well as assigning uncertainties to these retrievals. More specifically, validation efforts are essential for assessing the accuracy of instrument data and the derived science products across varied spatial and temporal scales and ensuring their reliability and consistency with the mission's scientific goals and objectives. The overall plan for validation of PACE data is described in “PACE Science Data Product Validation Plan” (see, e.g., https://pace.gsfc.nasa.gov), and among range of post-launch activities, it describes the need and requirements for a post-launch airborne field campaign in support of PACE validation. This volume outlines the plans and requirements of the PACE Postlaunch Airborne eXperiment (PACE-PAX). The main goal of PACE-PAX is to gather validation and assessment data for the PACE mission, using a variety of airborne and ground-based assets. These assets will be coordinated to obtain complementary measurements of key ocean and atmospheric variables, such as ocean color, aerosols, and clouds. By collecting data from multiple sources, PACE-PAX will help to validate and refine the data products generated by the PACE mission, as well as to identify any potential errors or biases in the measurements. This will be essential for ensuring the accuracy and reliability of the PACE data products, and for maximizing the scientific value of the mission.

Kirk D Knobelspiesse↗

NASA NTRSDate not supplied

Initial Design Guidelines for Onboard Automation of Flight Path Management

Achieving the National Academy of Science’s vision of advanced aerial mobility will depend on significant developments in automation to achieve safe and efficient operations. Flight path management (FPM), a major category of automation functionality needed to achieve this vision, will provide dynamic management of an aircraft’s flight path, ensuring that it remains feasible to fly to mission completion, deconflicted from hazards, coordinated with other traffic, flexible to accommodate future disturbances, and optimized to meet business objectives. While efforts are underway to advance FPM technology for the Urban Air Mobility application, initial design guidelines are presented for FPM automation capabilities to achieve each of these objectives based on 15+ years of prior FPM automation research and development. Methods to efficiently account for uncertainty in the prediction of trajectories are described, as are additional considerations for prioritizing safety in the design of FPM automation capabilities and interactions between aircraft. Recommendations are supported by extensive experience gained via previous work with the FPM reference automation system, Autonomous Operations Planner, developed by NASA. By employing capable FPM automation supported by cooperative operational flight rules and information sharing, future aircraft operators will benefit from an increased ability to plan and execute safe and efficient flights and to achieve mission success in a dynamic airspace.

Flight Path Management, FPM, AOP, UAM, deconflicti↗

NASA NTRSDate not supplied

Initial Design Guidelines for Onboard Automation of Flight Path Management

Achieving the National Academy of Science’s vision of advanced aerial mobility will depend on significant developments in automation to achieve safe and efficient operations. Flight path management (FPM), a major category of automation functionality needed to achieve this vision, will provide dynamic management of an aircraft’s flight path, ensuring that it remains feasible to fly to mission completion, deconflicted from hazards, coordinated with other traffic, flexible to accommodate future disturbances, and optimized to meet business objectives. While efforts are underway to advance FPM technology for the Urban Air Mobility application, initial design guidelines are presented for FPM automation capabilities to achieve each of these objectives based on 15+ years of prior FPM automation research and development. Methods to efficiently account for uncertainty in the prediction of trajectories are described, as are additional considerations for prioritizing safety in the design of FPM automation capabilities and interactions between aircraft. Recommendations are supported by extensive experience gained via previous work with the FPM reference automation system, Autonomous Operations Planner, developed by NASA. By employing capable FPM automation supported by cooperative operational flight rules and information sharing, future aircraft operators will benefit from an increased ability to plan and execute safe and efficient flights and to achieve mission success in a dynamic airspace.

Flight Path Management↗

NASA NTRS2014

A Concept of Operations for Far-Term Surface Trajectory-Based Operations (STBO)

The goal of this far-term STBO (Surface Trajectory-Based Operations) ConOps (Concept of Operations) is to increase the efficiency and predictability of airport surface operations, and reduce the environmental impact, by incorporating a time-based component to surface operations. In the far-term NextGen timeframe, airport surface operations will transition from current-day first-come, first-served operations, to strategically scheduled operations in which pilots are recruited as active participants in meeting the precise time-based goals of NextGen surface operations. The far-term STBO concept includes two-phases. Phase 1 introduces time-based traffic flow constraint points, which divide the taxi route into segments with an assigned Required Time of Arrival (RTA). This Phase 1 approach provides temporal certainty only near the traffic flow constraint points, but not in between. Minimal augmentations to the flight deck are required to support required time of arrival (RTA) management. Phase 2 further increases precision and efficiency by introducing full four-dimensional (4D) trajectories, with an x-y location for all times t. This phase assumes adoption of advanced flight deck equipage enabling higher temporal precision sufficient to support aircraft conformance to 4D trajectories. This allows more precision and less temporal uncertainty at all times along the route.

Surface Trajectory-Based Operations (STBO)↗

NASA NTRS2015

Integration of Uncertain Ramp Area Aircraft Trajectories and Generation of Optimal Taxiway Schedules at Charlotte Douglas (CLT) Airport

The integration of aircraft maneuver characteristics into an optimal taxiway scheduling solution is challenging due to the uncertainties that are intrinsic to ramp area aircraft trajectories. To address the challenge, we build a stochastic model of ramp area aircraft trajectories that is used to generate a probabilistic measure of conflict within the Charlotte Douglas International Airport (CLT) ramp area. Parameters of the conflict distributions are estimated and passed to a Mixed Integer Linear Program that solves for an optimal taxiway schedule constrained to be conflict free in the presence of trajectory uncertainties. Here we extend our previous research by accounting for departing and arriving aircraft whereas our prior formulation only accounted for departing aircraft.

taxiway schedule↗

NASA NTRS2020

A Digital Twin Feasibility Study (Part II):Non-Deterministic Predictions of Fatigue Life Using In-Situ Diagnostics and Prognostics

The Digital Twin (DT) concept has the potential to revolutionize the way systems and their components are designed, managed, maintained, and operated across a vast number of fields from engineering to healthcare. The focus of this work is the implementation of DT for the health management of fatigue critical structures. This paper is the second part of a two-part series. The first of the series demonstrated the use of multi-scale, initiation-to-failure crack growth modeling to form non-deterministic predictions of fatigue life. In this second part, a general method for reducing uncertainty in fatigue life predictions is presented that couples in-situ diagnostics and prognostics in a probabilistic framework. Monte Carlo methods and high-fidelity finite element models are used to (i) generate probabilistic estimates of crack state throughout the life of the same geometrically complex test specimen and (ii) predict fatigue life with decreasing uncertainty as more of these diagnoses are obtained. The ability to predict accurately and in the presence of uncertainty is demonstrated, suggesting that the proposed DT method is feasible for fatigue life prognosis and should be pursued further with a focus on increasing application realism.

Patrick E Leser↗

NASA NTRS2016

Health Monitoring of a Planetary Rover Using Hybrid Particle Petri Nets

This paper focuses on the application of a Petri Net-based diagnosis method on a planetary rover prototype.The diagnosis is performed by using a model-based method in the context of health management of hybrid systems.In system health management, the diagnosis task aims at determining the current health state of a system and the fault occurrences that lead to this state. The Hybrid Particle Petri Nets (HPPN) formalism is used to model hybrid systems behavior and degradation, and to define the generation of diagnosers to monitor the health states of such systems under uncertainty. At any time, the HPPN-based diagnoser provides the current diagnosis represented by a distribution of beliefs over the health states. The health monitoring methodology is demonstrated on the K11 rover. A hybrid model of the K11 is proposed and experimental results show that the approach is robust to real system data and constraints.

health monitoring↗

NASA NTRS2020

Monitoring Matang's Mangroves in Peninsular Malaysia through Earth observations: A globally relevant approach

Expansion of rotational timber harvesting of mangroves is set to increase, particularly given greater recognition of the economic, societal and environmental benefits. Generic and standardized procedures for monitoring mangroves are, therefore, needed to ensure their long-term sustainable utilisation. Focusing on the Matang Mangrove Forest Reserve (MMFR), Perak State, Peninsular Malaysia, thematic and continuous environmental descriptors with defined codes or units, including life form, forest age (years), canopy cover (%), above-ground biomass (Mg/ha) and relative amounts of woody debris (%), were retrieved from time-series data from spaceborne optical and single/dual polarimetric and interferometric RADAR. These were then combined for multiple points in time to generate land cover and evidence-based change maps according to the Food and Agriculture Organisation (FAO) Land Cover Classification System (LCCS) and using the framework of the Earth Observation Data for Ecosystem Monitoring (EODESM). Change maps were based on a pre-defined taxonomy, with focus on clear cutting and regrowth. Uncertainties surrounding the land cover and change maps were based on those determined for the environmental descriptors used for their generation and through comparison with independent retrieval from other EO data sources. For the MMFR and also for other mangroves worldwide where harvesting is occurring or being considered, a new approach and opportunity for supporting management of mangroves is presented, which has application for future planning of mangrove resources.

Richard Lucas↗

NASA NTRS2019

Satellite Conjunction Assessment Risk Analysis for "Dilution Region" Events: Issues and Operational Approaches

An important activity within Space Traffic Management is the detection and prevention of possible on-orbit collisions between space objects. The principal parameter for assessing collision likelihood is the probability of collision, which is widely accepted among conjunction assessment practitioners; but it possesses a known deficiency in that it can produce a false sense of safety when the orbital position uncertainties for the conjuncting objects are high. The probability of collision is said to be “diluted” in such a situation and to understate the possible risk; certain approaches have been recommended by researchers to provide (largely conservative) risk estimates and remediation methodologies in these cases. The present analysis explores two of the main proposals for quantifying and remediating possible risk in the dilution region and quantifies their operational implications. These implications with regard to imputed additional workload are considerable, especially in anticipating the conjunction event levels expected with the deployment of the USAF Space Fence radar. This effort has been undertaken as part of a larger enterprise that seeks to clarify the philosophical and statistical underpinnings of the conjunction risk assessment process. The analysis presented herein argues that a form of hypothesis testing is implicitly used in conjunction assessment risk analysis, and that there are a number of conceptual and practical reasons for constructing the associated null hypothesis to counsel against a satellite conjunction remediation action. In short, it is concluded that, for the purposes of determining whether a conjunction remediation action should be pursued, dilution-region probabilities of collision should be treated no differently from those produced under other circumstances.

Probability of collision↗

NASA NTRS2010

Human Research Program Space Radiation Standing Review Panel (SRP)

The Space Radiation Standing Review Panel (SRP) met at the NASA Johnson Space Center (JSC) on December 9-11, 2009 to discuss the areas of current and future research targeted by the Space Radiation Program Element (SRPE) of the Human Research Program (HRP). Using evidence-based knowledge as a background for identified risks to astronaut health and performance, NASA had identified gaps in knowledge to address those risks. Ongoing and proposed tasks were presented to address the gaps. The charge to the Space Radiation SRP was to review the gaps, evaluate whether the tasks addressed these gaps and to make recommendations to NASA s HRP Science Management Office regarding the SRP's review. The SRP was requested to evaluate the practicality of the proposed efforts in light of the demands placed on the HRP. Several presentations were made to the SRP during the site visit and the SRP spent sufficient time to address the SRP charge. The SRP made a final debriefing to the HRP Program Scientist, Dr. John B. Charles, on December 11, 2009. The SRP noted that current SRPE strategy is properly science-based and views this as the best assurance of the likelihood that answers to the questions posed as gaps in knowledge can be found, that the uncertainty in risk estimates can be reduced, and that a solid, cost-effective approach to risk reduction solutions is being developed. The current approach of the SRPE, based on the use of carefully focused research solicitations, requiring thorough peer-review and approaches demonstrated to be on the path to answering the NASA strategic questions, addressed to a broad extramural community of qualified scientists, optimally positioned to take advantage of serendipitous discoveries and to leverage scientific advances made elsewhere, is sound and appropriate. The SRP viewed with concern statements by HRP implying that the only science legitimately deserving support should be "applied" or, in some instances that the very term "research" might be frowned upon. We understand the desire of management to ensure that research stay focused on mission objectives, but the terms used are code words fraught with different meaning for scientists. Such expressions, taken at face value, convey a profoundly flawed view of science, can easily lead down counterproductive paths, and have the potential to irretrievably corrupt NASA requirements. The SRP understands and endorses the mandate to keep research efforts focused on the mission needs. However, thoughtful application of knowledge gained by understanding the mechanisms and pathways of biological effects cannot be replaced.

Woloschak, Gayle↗

NASA NTRS2003

Radiation risk and human space exploration

Radiation protection is essential to enable humans to live and work safely in space. Predictions about the nature and magnitude of the risks posed by space radiation are subject to very large uncertainties. Prudent use of worst-case scenarios may impose unacceptable constraints on shielding mass for spacecraft or habitats, tours of duty of crews on Space Station, and on the radius and duration of sorties on planetary surfaces. The NASA Space Radiation Health Program has been devised to develop the knowledge required to accurately predict and to efficiently manage radiation risk. The knowledge will be acquired by means of a peer-reviewed, largely ground-based and investigator-initiated, basic science research program. The NASA Strategic Plan to accomplish these objectives in a manner consistent with the high priority assigned to the protection and health maintenance of crews will be presented. Published by Elsevier Science Ltd on behalf of COSPAR.

NASA Discipline Radiation Health↗

NASA NTRSDate not supplied

Estimating Everglades Peat Reserves and Losses on a Landscape-Scale

The Florida Everglades formed from sawgrass and other aquatic plant remains that have accumulated over thousands of years and is a patterned peatland. The region was initially drained for agricultural and urban development in the late 1800s by the lowering of Lake Okeechobee water levels through canal drainage. Over the course of the past century, the Everglades has further been altered by the construction of canals and levees to provide control of Lake Okeechobee and Everglades water levels. The drainage has caused the loss of much of the peat of the Everglades by peat fires and microbial oxidation, much of it occurring between the 1880s and the 1950s. Plans for Everglades restoration are designed to provide additional water to flow through the remaining Everglades. Additional water into the Everglades would prevent further peat loss by reducing oxidation and encouraging the accretion of peat that has been lost. This potentially could result in the sequestration of significant quantities of atmospheric carbon. We used historic records to determine how much peat was there originally and how much has been lost. Over the past century and a half, approximately 50% of the original Everglades has been lost to agricultural and urban development. In addition, much of the peat in the remaining Everglades Protection Area has been lost. We used Geographic Information Systems technologies to determine the volume and mass of peat, the mass of carbon for each of the predrainage landscapes as well as the current Everglades regions. To do this, historical and current surveys within the Everglades were used to create elevation maps. With these maps, along with a bedrock contour map of south Florida, and soils data from the USEPA, we estimated Everglades peat characteristics. These calculations provide rough, quantitative estimates of the historical Everglades, its current condition, and the changes in the peat soil that have taken place since the 19th century. Given the uncertainties in the hindcasting of some of these data sets, this analysis provides rough estimates for the peat volumes and related constituents. Our calculations indicate that the current Everglades roughly contains less than 24% of theoriginal peat volume, 17% of its mass and 19% of its carbon. The work described was fully supported by the South Florida Water Management District, West Palm Beach, FL

Thomas Walter Dreschel↗

NASA NTRS2021

Scheduling and Operations of the ECOSTRESS Mission

This paper describes the development and use of an automated scheduling system for the National Aeronautics and Space Administration’s (NASA) ECOsystem Spaceborne Thermal Radiometer Experiment on Space Station (ECOSTRESS) mission. Key to the success of the ECOSTRESS mission has been the use of automated scheduling in mission analysis pre-launch, and in successful operations where automated scheduling was deployed to address several operational challenges. ECOSTRESS uses an adaptation of the Compressed Large-scale Activity Scheduling and Planning (CLASP) system to automatically select science observations respecting area and point target priorities as well as visibility, illumination, onboard storage, and radiation constraints to satisfy high-level prioritized science campaigns. The ECOSTRESS scheduler was used pre-launch to predict the effectiveness of alternative formulations of science campaign definitions accounting for the impact of data volume, keepout, and orbit/illumination/visibility constraints to derive the initial operational science campaign definitions and priorities. The scheduler was then used after instrument checkout for operations. ECOSTRESS has faced multiple operational challenges relating to instrument firmware and hardware, and the scheduler has been updated several times to address these challenges. The instrument Mass Storage Units (MSUs) had operational issues, requiring the scheduler to plan for and schedule commands to handle intricacies of data management. After many months of operations, both MSUs on the instrument became non-functioning and the firmware of the instrument was updated to bypass the MSUs. A further update to the ECOSTRESS scheduler enabled the scheduler to operate in this new operations mode. The ECOSTRESS scheduler has also been updated to improve handling of along-track uncertainty inherent in International Space Station operations. The flexibility and ease of updating of the automated scheduler has been a significant contributor to successful operations of the ECOSTRESS mission.

Padams, Jordan↗

NASA NTRSDate not supplied

Safety Expertise and the Perils of Novelty

Emerging aviation markets such as urban air mobility are giving rise to new technologies and means of operation. However, novelty may hide ‘unknown unknowns,’ raising new hazards. This paper examines how expertise and safety techniques enable transformative technologies such as reduced crew operations, hybrid wing-borne and rotor-born flight, federated air traffic services, and urban operations. We explore how analysts use expertise to address common-cause failures, collect and interpret safety data, and perform exacting tradeoffs between dissimilarity, redundancy, independence, and diversity (human, process lifecycle, or otherwise) to ensure safety. When novelty is present, analysts might not possess the expertise needed to fully understand the implications of design decisions and tradeoffs being made, especially in early lifecycle phases, on emergent properties such as safety. Safety expertise must be carefully cultivated. The conflicting views of safety experts must be unpacked to identify the divergence in fundamental assumptions, models, means, and methods that may be causing them. Once systems venture beyond the basis of what safety expertise can reliably guarantee, projects take on risk that must be managed. The paper contains key takeaways and actionable recommendations for novel OEMs and regulators touching on topics such as robust monitoring; clear and transparent reporting; incremental approaches to fielding novel systems in hazard-rich, risk-tolerant environments; the cultivation of safety culture and expertise in an organization; and the use of scientific study to reduce epistemic uncertainty in novel operations with new technologies. Since excessive novelty in aviation can undermine the current foundation of safety, humility and incrementalism are necessary to enable emerging aviation markets safely.

safety expertise↗

NASA NTRSDate not supplied

Safety Expertise and the Perils of Novelty

Emerging aviation markets such as urban air mobility are giving rise to new technologies and means of operation. However, novelty may hide ‘unknown unknowns,’ raising new hazards. This paper examines how expertise and safety techniques enable transformative technologies such as reduced crew operations, hybrid wing-borne and rotor-born flight, federated air traffic services, and urban operations. We explore how analysts use expertise to address common-cause failures, collect and interpret safety data, and perform exacting tradeoffs between dissimilarity, redundancy, independence, and diversity (human, process lifecycle, or otherwise) to ensure safety. When novelty is present, analysts might not possess the expertise needed to fully understand the implications of design decisions and tradeoffs being made, especially in early lifecycle phases, on emergent properties such as safety. Safety expertise must be carefully cultivated. The conflicting views of safety experts must be unpacked to identify the divergence in fundamental assumptions, models, means, and methods that may be causing them. Once systems venture beyond the basis of what safety expertise can reliably guarantee, projects take on risk that must be managed. The paper contains key takeaways and actionable recommendations for novel OEMs and regulators touching on topics such as robust monitoring; clear and transparent reporting; incremental approaches to fielding novel systems in hazard-rich, risk-tolerant environments; the cultivation of safety culture and expertise in an organization; and the use of scientific study to reduce epistemic uncertainty in novel operations with new technologies. Since excessive novelty in aviation can undermine the current foundation of safety, humility and incrementalism are necessary to enable emerging aviation markets safely.

safety expertise↗

NASA NTRS2016

Comparison of Different Control Schemes for Strategic Departure Metering

Airports and their terminal airspaces are key choke points in the air transportation system causing major delays and adding to pollution. A solution aimed at mitigating these chokepoints integrates the scheduling of runway operations, flight release from the gates and ramp into the airport movement area, and merging with other traffic competing for downstream airspace points. Within this integrated concept, we present a simulation-based analysis of the departure metering process, which delays the release of flights into the airport movement area while balancing two competing objectives: (1) maintaining large enough queues at the airport resources to maximize throughput and (2) absorbing excess delays at the gates or in ramp areas to save on fuel consumption, emissions, noise, and passenger discomfort. Three metering strategies are compared which respectively attempt to control the number of flights that (1) left the gate but did not take off, (2) left the ramp but did not take off, and (3) spent their unimpeded transit time to the runway but did not take off. It was observed that under deterministic and demand uncertainty conditions, the first strategy performed better than the other two strategies in terms of maintaining the runway throughput while transferring a significant average delay of two minutes to the gate. On the other hand, under uncertainties of flight transit time and runway service rate, all the strategies struggled to delay flights at the gate without a significant impact on the runway throughput.

air traffic management↗

NASA NTRS1989

Practices in Adequate Structural Design

Structural design and verification of space vehicles and space systems is a very tricky and awe inspiring business, particularly for manned missions. Failures in the missions with loss of life is devastating personally and nationally. The scope of the problem is driven by high performance requirements which push state-of-the-art technologies, creating high sensitivites to small variations and uncertainties. Insurance of safe, reliable flight dictates the use of sound principles, procedures, analysis, and testing. Many of those principles which were refocused by the Space Shuttle Challenger (51-L) accident on January 26, 1986, and the activities conducted to insure safe shuttle reflights are discussed. The emphasis will be focused on engineering, while recognizing that project and project management are also key to success.

Ryan, Robert S.↗