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Search indexed NASA NTRS and DOE OSTI research on propulsion, heat transfer, battery materials and energy systems. Follow report and document links to the original sources.

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At least 343 records · Page 19
All sourcesNASA NTRSDOE OSTI
DOE OSTI2024

The Muon g-2 Experiment at Fermilab: Precision Measurements and Nonlinear Beam Dynamics

The Muon g-2 Experiment has achieved a significant milestone by measuring the positive muon anomalous magnetic moment to an unprecedented accuracy of 0.20 ppm, paving the way to a better understanding of particle physics, including beyond-the-Standard-Model possibilities. In the experiment, muons are circulated within a storage ring, and their anomalous precession frequency — the spin precession relative to momentum — is determined from decay positron time and energy data, captured using calorimeters. In support of accurate storage ring simulations, we performed high-order calculations of the field of the experiment's high-voltage quadrupoles. We also carried out accurate, transfer map–based calculations of the storage ring's chromaticity. These calculations are essential for understanding the beam dynamics effects in the Muon g-2 storage ring.

72 PHYSICS OF ELEMENTARY PARTICLES AND FIELDS↗
DOE OSTI2020

Application of an Embedded Fracture and Borehole Modeling Approach to the Understanding of EGS Collab Experiment 1

EGS Collab is a series of meso-scale experiments and associated numerical simulation activities being funded by the United States Department of Energy, Geothermal Technologies Office (GTO) to investigate enhanced geothermal system processes under in-situ stress and slightly elevated temperature conditions. This project is designed to provide scientists and engineers with immediate access to impermeable rock at scales larger than possible in the laboratory, but generally smaller than those for commercial production. Immediate access to rock is provided via the existing drifts of the former Homestake Gold Mine, now operated as the Sanford Underground Research Facility in Lead, South Dakota. The objectives of the EGS Collab project are to develop well controlled fracture networks between injector and producer boreholes using normal and shear stimulation for permeability enhancement. The first experimental site was located off the West Access drift on the 4850 Level (4850 feet below ground surface) in phyllite of the Precambrian Poorman formation, and involved the creation of a fracture network comprising a combination of hydraulic and natural fractures. A second experimental site is now being considered near the battery alcove on the 4100 Level in amphibolite and rhyolite of the Yates Unit. Data generated during these experiments will be compared against predictions of a suite of computer codes specifically designed to solve problems involving coupled thermal, hydrological, geomechanical, and geochemical processes. Comparisons between experimental and numerical simulation results will provide code developers with direction for improvements and verification of process models, build confidence in the suite of available numerical tools, and ultimately identify critical future development needs for the geothermal modeling community. Moreover, conducting thorough comparisons of models, modelling approaches, measurement approaches and measured data, via the EGS Collab project, will serve to identify techniques that are most likely to succeed at the Frontier Observatory for Research in Geothermal Energy (FORGE), the GTO’s flagship EGS research effort. Experiment 1 has comprised a series of successful tests, including a long-term chilled-water circulation test, but the testbed has two atypical EGS elements. Active ventilation in the adjacent drift over a 50-year period cooled the testbed rock mass and hydraulic fracturing intersected monitoring boreholes making them conduits for fluid flow. Numerical simulations executed in support of the design of the EGS Collab Experiment 1, computed a radial temperature distribution and stress gradient orthogonal to the drift axis, resulting in the forecast of an oblong hydraulic fracture geometry, extended in the direction of the drift from the stimulation borehole. This paper describes the numerical simulation of long-term chilled-water circulation test with an embedded fracture and borehole modeling approach. The principal objective of the simulation work is show agreement between experimental observations in terms of production fluid temperatures, monitoring borehole temperatures, injection and production pressures, and tracer recoveries using a single conceptual model for the fracture network, using characterization and monitoring data generally available for EGS. A secondary objective is to improve the numerical simulation result comparisons with additional data available from the broader monitoring equipment within the testbed versus deeper, hotter, and more remote EGS. One complicating factor for comparisons between the numerical simulation results and experimental observations, is the Joule-Thomson heating associated with large pressure drops across the fracture network.

numerical simulation, embedded fractures and boreh↗
DOE OSTI2024

Superhydrophobic Array Devices for the Enhanced Formation of 3D Cancer Models

During the metastatic cascade, cancer cells travel through the bloodstream as circulating tumor cells (CTCs) to a secondary site. Clustered CTCs have greater shear stress and treatment resistance, yet their biology remains poorly understood. We therefore engineered a tunable superhydrophobic array device (SHArD). The SHArD-C was applied to culture a clinically relevant model of CTC clusters. Using our device, we cultured a model of cancer cell aggregates of various sizes with immortalized cancer cell lines. These exhibited higher E-cadherin expression and are significantly more capable of surviving high fluid shear stress-related forces compared to single cells and model clusters grown using the control method, helping to explain why clustering may provide a metastatic advantage. Additionally, the SHArD-S, when compared with the AggreWell 800 method, provides a more consistent spheroid-forming device culturing reproducible sizes of spheroids for multiple cancer cell lines. Overall, we designed, fabricated, and validated an easily tunable engineered device which grows physiologically relevant three-dimensional (3D) cancer models containing tens to thousands of cells.

37 INORGANIC, ORGANIC, PHYSICAL, AND ANALYTICAL CH↗
DOE OSTI2026

Large Eddy Simulation of Low-Reynolds-Number Turbulent Flow of Low-Prandtl-Number Fluid in a Tight Lattice Bundle for Assessment of Reynolds-Averaged Navier-Stokes Turbulence Model

The MARVEL (Microreactor Applications Research Validation and Evaluation) microreactor utilizes natural circulation as core cooling mechanism and liquid metal as a primary coolant. Moreover, the reactor core has a pitch-to-diameter ratio of 1.056, which is considered a tight lattice configuration. Numerous studies have widely reported that Reynolds-Averaged Navier-Stokes (RANS) turbulence models inaccurately predict heat transfer in liquid metals and fail to capture flow pulsations that can occur within tight lattices, leading to further inaccuracies in simulation results. Therefore, evaluating the accuracy of RANS turbulence models in the thermal-hydraulic analysis of the MARVEL microreactor core is crucial for assessing reactor safety. In this study, a Large Eddy Simulation (LES) of the MARVEL microreactor core subchannel was conducted and compared with a RANS simulation to evaluate the accuracies and conservatism of the RANS model. The flow pulsation in a tight lattice predicted by LES enhanced the heat transfer, whereas the RANS model underpredicted it. Consequently, the RANS model predicted the peak cladding temperature higher than the LES model, but the discrepancy between the two approaches was not significant due to the good thermal characteristics of the liquid metal. It can be concluded that the steady-state RANS model is effective for the thermal analysis of liquid-metal-cooled MARVEL microreactor core and can provide conservative predictions from a safety analysis perspective.

21 - SPECIFIC NUCLEAR REACTORS AND ASSOCIATED PLAN↗
DOE OSTI2025

Modeling of Vertical Motor-driven Pump for Simulation of a Fault Signature \\ for Condition Monitoring

As part of the ongoing effort to transition from preventive maintenance strategies to condition-based maintenance strategies in nuclear power plants, there is significant reliance on using machine learning techniques. To develop a robust machine learning model that can diagnose all the fault modes of a vertical motor-driven pump, data capturing the unique signature of each fault mode is required. In practice, it is difficult to collect or capture data that captures all the fault modes from a single plant site. So to address this situation, a computational model of a vertical motor-driven pump is developed using the multipurpose finite element software COMSOL Multiphysics. The developed model is used to generate simulated data under normal operation and is compared with the vibration data collected using vibration sensors. Once the simulation model is verified under normal operating condition, simulated data for the fault mode for which minimal or no evidence is available in historical plant process data is developed. This simulated data is used to develop fault signatures to achieve robust predictive models. This paper presents modeling details and verification of the model that can used to generate data for fault modes that are not available at a plant site for condition monitoring purpose.

46 - INSTRUMENTATION RELATED TO NUCLEAR SCIENCE AN↗
DOE OSTI2023

Southern Ocean polynyas and dense water formation in a high-resolution, coupled Earth system model

Antarctic coastal polynyas produce dense shelf water, a primary source of Antarctic Bottom Water that contributes to the global overturning circulation. This paper investigates Antarctic dense water formation in the high-resolution version of the Energy Exascale Earth System Model (E3SM-HR). The model is able to reproduce the main Antarctic coastal polynyas, although the polynyas are smaller in area compared to observations. E3SM-HR also simulates several occurrences of open-ocean polynyas (OOPs) in the Weddell Sea at a higher rate than what the last 50 years of the satellite sea ice observational record suggests, but similarly to other high-resolution Earth system model simulations. Furthermore, the densest water masses in the model are formed within the OOPs rather than on the continental shelf as is typically observed. Biases related to the lack of dense water formation on the continental shelf are associated with overly strong atmospheric polar easterlies, which lead to a strong Antarctic Slope Front and too little exchange between on- and off-continental shelf water masses. Strong polar easterlies also produce excessive southward Ekman transport, causing a build-up of sea ice over the continental shelf and enhanced ice melting in the summer season. This, in turn, produces water masses on the continental shelf that are overly fresh and less dense relative to observations. Our results indicate that high resolution alone is insufficient for models to properly reproduce Antarctic dense water; the large-scale polar atmospheric circulation around Antarctica must also be accurately simulated.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2019

Validation of RELAP-7 for Forced Convective and Natural Circulation Reactor Flows

New reactor designs such as small modular reactors and newly proposed passive safety systems rely on natural circulation two-phase flow cooling of the reactor core under accident conditions. Without a pump to drive the flow, the circulation rate is a strong function of void fraction. Under these conditions where the flow rate, pressure drop, and heat transfer are all closely coupled through the mixture density, the accurate prediction of void fraction is pivotal. Furthermore, while these passive systems boast a more reliable cooling option, the sensitivity of the system to two-phase flow instabilities is more likely than in forced convective cooling and can result in dangerous density wave or flow excursion conditions. Improvement of one-dimensional system codes and further development of three-dimensional code capability are all important efforts in addressing these issues. The proposed work is a critical step towards providing confidence through validation of the capability of thermal-hydraulic tools to meet the emerging challenges in reactor simulation. Historically, system analysis codes develop a stiffness over time due to fine-tuning of adjustable code parameters that result in a reluctance or inability to adopt improved models. Therefore, a rigorous effort should be invested in preparation for RELAP-7 to identify required modeling improvements of constitutive relations and validation of the code applicability to the wide range of possible reactor flow conditions. Part of this validation involves the uncertainty quantification which is a critical step in the Code Scaling, Applicability, and Uncertainty (CSAU) methodology and Best-Estimate Plus Uncertainty (BEPU) licensing method. BEPU allows recovery of safety margins and potentially optimizing plant performance, resulting in economic benefit for the reactor operators. Beginning with the collection of past experimental data covering prototypic LWR conditions, this document reviews three critical datasets available for the validation of system codes. The experimental methods, procedures, facilities, instrumentation, and supplementary information are consolidated to aid the validation efforts of this work and future projects. These three datasets (824 conditions) are chosen due to their wide acceptance and demonstrated application for code validation. Two experimental datasets from the Nuclear Power Engineering Corporation (NUPEC) span prototypic conditions of Boiling Water Reactors (BWR) and Pressurized Water Reactors (PWR). These datasets are labeled as the BFBT (BWR Full-size Fine-mesh Bundle Test) and the PSBT (PWR Subchannel and Bundle Test) datasets respectively. The third dataset is taken in an internally heated annulus that is scaled based on a BWR subassembly and includes two-phase flows important to post-blowdown analysis. Together, the datasets consider the full range of pressure and mass flux expected in LWR forced convective flows from steady-state to long term cooling conditions. Recognizing the deficiency of available data under low-pressure, low-flow, a new natural circulation dataset consisting of 107 conditions is obtained. With system pressures ranging between 145 and 950 kPa, natural circulation is driven by a heat flux up to 275 kW/m2 in a 3 m long heated region of the annulus test section which is followed by a 2 m long unheated region before entering a condenser. Stable natural circulation flow rates in this facility were measured to be between 182 and 590 kg/m2-s. Pressure and temperature are measured at ten locations in the facility. In addition, measurements of void fraction, interfacial area concentration, and gas velocity are obtained at five axial locations in the annulus test section. The RELAP5-3D code demonstrates good accuracy for void fraction predictions in BFBT and PSBT benchmarks, but shows relatively large discrepancy in the annulus experiments at lower pressures. In two-phase natural circulation, large oscillations are observed in many system parameters during the simulation of 19 experiment cases which were conducted at low pressures, and the model shows good predictive performance with the remaining 88 experiment cases. However, some discrepancies in void fraction and temperature predictions are found which may require improved constitutive modeling under these low-pressure, low-flow condition. The quantified uncertainty in void fraction predictions in three forced convection benchmarks due to uncertainties in boundary conditions and geometries are relatively small, except for a few cases in the annulus experiment. The output uncertainty of the natural circulation model is quantified by considering the measurement error in boundary conditions, and it is shown that the output uncertainty ranges are relatively small for the range of conditions considered. Through this work, a clear pathway is provided for validation of RELAP7 once the code is available.

42 ENGINEERING↗
DOE OSTI2026

Subseasonal Forecasting and MJO Teleconnections in Machine Learning Weather Prediction Models

Abstract In recent years, machine‐learning (ML) models trained on reanalysis data have rivaled physics‐based forecast models in terms of performance skill for global weather forecasting. With increased rollout stability, the question of how these models perform for subseasonal to seasonal (S2S, week 3–8) forecasting has emerged. In this study we run a large set of subseasonal hindcasts over 2004–2023 to evaluate two ML weather forecast models at the S2S time scale, SFNO‐HENS (Nvidia, fully ML) and NeuralGCM (Google Research, hybrid). Corresponding hindcasts from the European Centre for Medium‐Range Weather Forecasts (ECMWF) are used as a baseline for comparison to a physics‐based model. Because our focus is on predicting moisture transport over the Western United States between October and March, we evaluate the models' prediction skill for the Madden‐Julian Oscillation (MJO) and its associated teleconnections in the North Pacific. We find that both ML models are competitive with the ECWMF model, with comparable skill in predicting the North Pacific large‐scale circulation and the MJO at week 3 and beyond. Even though overall the mid‐latitude subseasonal prediction skill remains low, the ML models exhibit interesting behavior such as a realistic propagation of the MJO across the Maritime Continent and realistic teleconnections. A SFNO‐HENS sensitivity experiment with altered initial conditions in the tropics demonstrates the stability of the model, and it illustrates the capability of ML models to represent important physical processes of the atmosphere at the S2S time scale. Plain Language Summary Predicting weather patterns and precipitation a few weeks in advance (subseasonal time scale) is of great interest for stakeholders such as water managers in the Southwest United States (US), where arid conditions prevail. Subseasonal forecasts from traditional weather forecast models exhibit low skill in the region, limiting their applicability. Here we examine whether the recent breakthrough in weather forecasting made with machine learning/artificial intelligence models can translate to improved subseasonal forecasts. Recently‐developed machine learning models exhibit comparable skill to a state‐of‐the‐art physics‐based model for predicting weather patterns in the North Pacific/North America region, and associated moisture transport. The same applies to their skill in predicting the tropical pattern, the Madden‐Julian Oscillation, and its important remote perturbations over the midlatitude East Pacific and Southwest US. Additionally, a perturbation experiment carried out with one of the machine learning models illustrates their ability to not only predict the evolution of atmospheric fields, but also to learn and represent physical processes such as tropics‐extratropics Rossby wave propagation. Key Points Two machine learning weather forecast models exhibit state‐of‐the‐art prediction skill at the subseasonal time scale in the Pacific sector The models equal ECWMF in terms of Madden‐Julian oscillation (MJO) prediction skill, and they accurately predict the MJO propagation and associated teleconnections The two machine‐learning models represent key physical processes for subseasonal prediction, despite being trained for weather forecasting

Peings, Yannick↗
DOE OSTI2023

TRACE Analysis of the STS Target Flow Loop Conceptual Design

This report documents the efforts to model the conceptual design of the STS natural circulation flow loop using TRACE. The results, summarized in Section 2.1, support the conclusion that the conceptual STS natural circulation flow loop design provides sufficient cooling of the tungsten target and exhibits predictable flow behavior, provided that certain design features and/or operating conditions are used. In particular: A sufficient initial liquid volume fraction is required to avoid dryout of the target flow channels; Inclusion of a pressurizer or bellows volume at the top of the loop is recommended and is capable of achieving steady, non-oscillatory flow and temperature conditions at sufficiently high loop pressure. Section 1 provides a detailed description of the geometry and assumptions used in the model, and Section 2 presents the results for the current flow loop design as well as some investigation of potential design modifications with the goal of enhancing the thermal hydraulic stability of the loop.

11 NUCLEAR FUEL CYCLE AND FUEL MATERIALS↗
DOE OSTI2025

PSA 2025 Presentation: "Modeling and Sensitivity Analysis of a Generation IV Pebble Bed Reactor Using MELCOR 2.2"

Accompanying the advancement of reactor technologies is the need for computational modeling and simulation to predict their behavior under normal operating conditions and accident scenarios. New Generation IV reactor designs which employ non-conventional fuel have a particular need for modeling the behavior and release of radionuclides and other material from the fuel. In this work, MELCOR version 2.2, a system-level safety and accident scenario code developed by Sandia National Laboratories, was used to model a 200-MWth pebble bed modular reactor and calculate the inventories of circulating and deposited graphite, metal dust, and elemental components released from the fuel elements. A base case modeling the reactor under standard operating conditions was calculated using MELCOR and the inventories were extrapolated to 30 years of operation time using a logarithmic regression fit. A sensitivity analysis was also performed in which several key parameters for the base case model were modified to explore the effect of these changes on the inventories calculated by MELCOR. A set of transient scenario simulations for a depressurized loss of forced cooling (DLOFC) accident were also performed. The results of the sensitivity analysis and transient simulations are reported and discussed in relation to the modeling techniques used for this study.

22 - GENERAL STUDIES OF NUCLEAR REACTORS↗
DOE OSTI2021

HyPerPy (Hydrogen Extraction and Parabolic Trough Plant Performance Models using Python) [SWR-21-53]

The HyPerPy package consists of three scripts: 1) Model for Hydrogen Tracking in Parabolic Trough Power Plants, 2) Model for Receiver Performance, and 3) Model for Hydrogen Extraction Process. The power plant model (1) tracks hydrogen generation and transport within the circulating heat transfer fluid (HTF) of the power plant. This script is a transient, initial value simulation, in which the hydrogen concentration in the circulating HTF is 0 moles per cubic meter everywhere at time 0 seconds. Hydrogen concentration is calculated at discrete locations within the circulating HTF with 4-second time resolution. During each time step, the change in hydrogen concentration due to hydrogen generation and permeation is calculated for each location according to the local HTF temperature, vessel or piping properties, hydrogen concentration and partial pressure. This model predicts hourly hydrogen concentrations for typical operating days in the spring, summer, fall, and winter seasons. Data is used to create hourly mappings of hydrogen concentrations for a typical operating year. The receiver model (2) uses a 1-hour time step to estimate getter loading and annulus pressure. For each time step, the model uses HTF and ambient temperature data to estimate absorber tube, bellows, and getter temperatures for the time step. In addition, the model uses hourly HTF hydrogen concentrations that are generated by the power plant model (1), and annulus hydrogen pressure from the previous time step. With these data, the model calculates the moles of hydrogen permeating across the absorber tube and bellows during the time step. The net change in moles hydrogen is added or subtracted from the getter loading for the previous time step, and the hydrogen pressure is re-calculated based on getter loading and temperature. The model uses this algorithm to simulate hydrogen permeation and loading 24 hours per day, 365 days per year using seasonal temperature data. The model repeats these calculations for 25 years to create a mapping of receiver getter loading and annulus hydrogen pressure for four seasons of each year. The model for hydrogen extraction (3) estimates hydrogen extraction rates for a specific separation module configuration. The rate depends primarily on membrane area, vacuum pump performance, headspace gas flowrate to the membrane, and headspace gas hydrogen partial pressure. This model has two versions. The steady-state version predicts hydrogen extraction rates when the module is operating in separation mode. The dynamic version predicts hydrogen transfer through the membrane when the module is operating in sensor mode. The steady-state version is used with the plant model (1) to predict hydrogen partial pressures in the power plant when the extraction process is operating.

Glatzmaier, Gregory↗
DOE OSTI2023

Threefold reduction of modeled uncertainty in direct radiative effects over biomass burning regions by constraining absorbing aerosols

Absorbing aerosols emitted from biomass burning (BB) greatly affect the radiation balance, cloudiness, and circulation over tropical regions. Assessments of these impacts rely heavily on the modeled aerosol absorption from poorly constrained global models and thus exhibit large uncertainties. By combining the AeroCom model ensemble with satellite and in situ observations, we provide constraints on the aerosol absorption optical depth (AAOD) over the Amazon and Africa. Our approach enables identification of error contributions from emission, lifetime, and MAC (mass absorption coefficient) per model, with MAC and emission dominating the AAOD errors over Amazon and Africa, respectively. In addition to primary emissions, our analysis suggests substantial formation of secondary organic aerosols over the Amazon but not over Africa. Furthermore, we find that differences in direct aerosol radiative effects between models decrease by threefold over the BB source and outflow regions after correcting the identified errors. This highlights the potential to greatly reduce the uncertainty in the most uncertain radiative forcing agent.

09 BIOMASS FUELS↗
DOE OSTI2026

Experimental protocol for phase 1 of the APARC QUOCA (QUasibiennial oscillation and Ozone Chemistry interactions in the Atmosphere) working group

The quasi-biennial oscillation (QBO) is the main mode of variability in the tropical stratosphere, influencing the predictability of other regions in the atmosphere through its teleconnections to the stratospheric polar vortices and coupling to surface tropical and extratropical variability. However, climate and forecasting models consistently underestimate QBO amplitudes in the lower stratosphere, likely contributing to their failure to simulate these teleconnections. One underexplored contributor to model biases is missing representation of ozone-radiative feedbacks, which enhance temperature variability in the lower stratosphere, particularly at periods at and greater than the QBO (>28 months). While previous studies suggest that ozone-radiative feedbacks can impact QBO periods, amplitudes and the associated secondary circulation in the lower stratosphere, the reported impacts differ widely among models and are hard to interpret due to differences in methodology. To this end, here we propose a coordinated experimental protocol – held joint between the Atmospheric Processes and their Role in Climate (APARC) Quasi-Biennial Oscillation Initiative (QBOi) and Chemistry Climate Modeling Initiative (CCMI) activities – which is aimed at assessing the coupling between stratospheric ozone, temperature and the circulation. We use the proposed experiments to define the ozone feedback on the QBO in both present-day and idealized (abrupt quadrupling of carbon dioxide) climates. While primary focus is on the QBO, the proposed protocol also enables analysis of other aspects of ozone-radiative-dynamical coupling in the atmosphere, including impacts on the Brewer-Dobson Circulation and tropospheric eddy-driven jet responses to future climate change. Here we document the scientific rationale and design of the QUOCA Phase 1 experiments, summarize the data request, and give a brief overview of participating models. Preliminary results using the NASA Goddard Institute for Space Studies E2-2 climate model are used to illustrate sensitivities to certain methodological choices.

Environmental sciences↗
DOE OSTI2022

Warming Pattern over the Northern Hemisphere Midlatitudes in Boreal Summer 1979–2020

Abstract Significant surface air temperature warming during summer 1979–2020 is not uniformly distributed in the northern midlatitudes over land but rather is confined to several longitudinal sectors including Europe, central Siberia and Mongolia, and both coasts of North America. These hot spots are accompanied by a chain of high pressure ridges from an anomalous, circumglobal Rossby wave train in the upper troposphere. From reanalysis data and several baseline experiments from phase 6 of the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project (CMIP6), we find that the circulation trend pattern is associated with fluctuations of the Atlantic multidecadal variability (AMV) and the interdecadal Pacific oscillation. The phase shift of AMV in the 1990s is particularly noteworthy for accelerating warming averaged over the northern midlatitude land. The amplitude of the observed trend in both surface air temperature and the upper-level geopotential height generally falls beyond the range of multidecadal trends simulated by the CMIP6 preindustrial control runs, supporting the likelihood that anthropogenic forcing played a critical role in the observed trend. On the other hand, the fidelity of the simulated low-frequency modes of variability and their teleconnections, especially on multidecadal time scales, is difficult to assess because of the relatively short observational records. Our mechanistic modeling results indicate that synoptic eddy–mean flow interaction is a key to the formation of the anomalous wave train but how the multidecadal modes can modulate the synoptic eddies through atmosphere–ocean and atmosphere–land interactions remains poorly understood. This gap in our knowledge makes it challenging to quantify the roles of the low-frequency modes and external forcings in causing the observed multidecadal trends.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2020

The role of Northeast Pacific meltwater events in deglacial climate change

Columbia River megafloods occurred repeatedly during the last deglaciation, but the impacts of this fresh water on Pacific hydrography are largely unknown. To reconstruct changes in ocean circulation during this period, we used a numerical model to simulate the flow trajectory of Columbia River megafloods and compiled records of sea surface temperature, paleo-salinity, and deep-water radiocarbon from marine sediment cores in the Northeast Pacific. The North Pacific sea surface cooled and freshened during the early deglacial (19.0-16.5 ka) and Younger Dryas (12.9-11.7 ka) intervals, coincident with the appearance of subsurface water masses depleted in radiocarbon relative to the sea surface. We infer that Pacific meltwater fluxes contributed to net Northern Hemisphere cooling prior to North Atlantic Heinrich Events, and again during the Younger Dryas stadial. Abrupt warming in the Northeast Pacific similarly contributed to hemispheric warming during the Bølling and Holocene transitions. These findings underscore the importance of changes in North Pacific freshwater fluxes and circulation in deglacial climate events.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2025

Opportunities in multiscale modeling of mosquito-borne flaviviruses

Mosquito-borne flaviviruses, such as Zika, dengue, West Nile, and yellow fever virus, represent a growing public health concern due to their widespread distribution and the severe diseases they cause. These viruses are difficult to control as climate change and urbanization help mosquitoes expand into new areas, increasing the risk of outbreaks. Mathematical models play a key role in understanding their spread, providing insights at every level—from how the virus multiplies inside cells to how it circulates through entire populations. This review examines various approaches used in modeling arboviruses, including microscale models that focus on cellular and molecular dynamics, mesoscale models that address within-host processes, and macroscale models that capture population-level transmission. We briefly summarize the methodology used for models at each scale, which primarily consists of sets of differential equations with parameters that represent physical rates of change for different subprocesses. We particularly highlight how temperature affects virus transmission, which is key to understanding the impact of climate change. We also show how multiscale models can connect viral replication, immune response, and the spread of infection at a larger scale. This is essential for developing better vaccines and treatments, evaluating disease control measures, predicting the impact of climate change, and improving public health responses to outbreaks.

60 APPLIED LIFE SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2024

RNA Splicing Events in Circulation Distinguish Individuals With and Without New-onset Type 1 Diabetes

Context: Alterations in RNA splicing may influence protein isoform diversity that contributes to or reflects the pathophysiology of certain diseases. Whereas specific RNA splicing events in pancreatic islets have been investigated in models of inflammation in vitro, how RNA splicing in the circulation correlates with or is reflective of type 1 diabetes (T1D) disease pathophysiology in humans remains unexplored. Objective: To use machine learning to investigate if alternative RNA splicing events differ between individuals with and without new-onset T1D and to determine if these splicing events provide insight into T1D pathophysiology. Methods: RNA deep sequencing was performed on whole blood samples from 2 independent cohorts: a training cohort consisting of 12 individuals with new-onset T1D and 12 age- and sex-matched nondiabetic controls and a validation cohort of the same size and demographics. Machine learning analysis was used to identify specific isoforms that could distinguish individuals with T1D from controls. Results: Distinct patterns of RNA splicing differentiated participants with T1D from unaffected controls. Notably, certain splicing events, particularly involving retained introns, showed significant association with T1D. Machine learning analysis using these splicing events as features from the training cohort demonstrated high accuracy in distinguishing between T1D subjects and controls in the validation cohort. Gene Ontology pathway enrichment analysis of the retained intron category showed evidence for a systemic viral response in T1D subjects. Conclusion: Alternative RNA splicing events in whole blood are significantly enriched in individuals with new-onset T1D and can effectively distinguish these individuals from unaffected controls. Further, our findings also suggest that RNA splicing profiles offer the potential to provide insights into disease pathogenesis.

60 APPLIED LIFE SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2025

Water Mass Transformation Budgets in Finite‐Volume Generalized Vertical Coordinate Ocean Models

Water Mass Transformation (WMT) theory provides conceptual tools that in principle enable innovative analyses of numerical ocean models; in practice, however, these methods can be challenging to implement and interpret, and therefore remain under-utilized. Our aim is to demonstrate the feasibility of diagnosing all terms in the water mass budget and to exemplify their usefulness for scientific inquiry and model development by quantitatively relating water mass changes, overturning circulations, boundary fluxes, and interior mixing. We begin with a pedagogical derivation of key results of classical WMT theory. We then describe best practices for diagnosing each of the water mass budget terms from the output of Finite-Volume Generalized Vertical Coordinate (FV-GVC) ocean models, including the identification of a non-negligible remainder term as the spurious numerical mixing due to advection scheme discretization errors. We illustrate key aspects of the methodology through the analysis of a polygonal region of the Greater Baltic Sea in a regional demonstration simulation using the Modular Ocean Model v6 (MOM6). We verify the convergence of our WMT diagnostics by brute-force, comparing time-averaged (“offline”) diagnostics on various vertical grids to timestep-averaged (“online”) diagnostics on the native model grid. Finally, we briefly describe a stack of xarray-enabled Python packages for evaluating WMT budgets in FV-GVC models (culminating in the new xwmb package), which is intended to be model-agnostic and available for community use and development.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗