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Search indexed NASA NTRS and DOE OSTI research on propulsion, heat transfer, battery materials and energy systems. Follow report and document links to the original sources.

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At least 343 records · Page 19
All sourcesNASA NTRSDOE OSTI
NASA NTRS2011

Can the GEOS CCM Simulate the Temperature Response to Warm Pool El Nino Events in the Antarctic Stratosphere?

"Warm pool" (WP) El Nino events are characterized by positive sea surface temperature (SST) anomalies in the central equatorial Pacific. During austral spring, WP El Nino events are associated with an enhancement of convective activity in the South Pacific Convergence Zone, provoking a tropospheric planetary wave response and thus increasing planetary wave driving of the Southern Hemisphere stratosphere. These conditions lead to higher polar stratospheric temperatures and to a weaker polar jet during austral summer, as compared with neutral ENSO years. Furthermore, this response is sensitive to the phase of the quasi-biennial oscillation (QBO): a stronger warming is seen in WP El Nino events coincident with the easterly phase of the quasi-biennial oscillation (QBO) as compared with WP El Nino events coincident with a westerly or neutral QBO. The Goddard Earth Observing System (GEOS) chemistry-climate model (CCM) is used to further explore the atmospheric response to ENSO. Time-slice simulations are forced by composited SSTs from observed NP El Nino and neutral ENSO events. The modeled eddy heat flux, temperature and wind responses to WP El Nino events are compared with observations. A new gravity wave drag scheme has been implemented in the GEOS CCM, enabling the model to produce e realistic, internally generated QBO. By repeating the above time-slice simulations with this new model version, the sensitivity of the WP El Nino response to the phase of the quasi-biennial oscillation QBO is estimated.

Hurwitz, M. M.↗
NASA NTRS2011

The Response of Tropical Tropospheric Ozone to ENSO

We have successfully reproduced the Ozone ENSO Index (OEI) in the Goddard Earth Observing System (GEOS) chemistry-climate model (CCM) forced by observed sea surface temperatures over a 25-year period. The vertical ozone response to ENSO is consistent with changes in the Walker circulation. We derive the sensitivity of simulated ozone to ENSO variations using linear regression analysis. The western Pacific and Indian Ocean region shows similar positive ozone sensitivities from the surface to the upper troposphere, in response to positive anomalies in the Nino 3.4 Index. The eastern and central Pacific region shows negative sensitivities with the largest sensitivity in the upper troposphere. This vertical response compares well with that derived from SHADOZ ozonesondes in each region. The OEI reveals a response of tropospheric ozone to circulation change that is nearly independent of changes in emissions and thus it is potentially useful in chemistry-climate model evaluation.

Oman, L. D.↗
NASA NTRS2014

Modifications of the Quasi-biennial Oscillation by a Geoengineering Perturbation of the Stratospheric Aerosol Layer

This paper examines the impact of geoengineering via stratospheric sulfate aerosol on the quasi-biennial oscillation (QBO) using the NASA Goddard Earth Observing System (GEOS-5) Chemistry Climate Model. We performed four 30-year simulations with a continuous injection of sulfur dioxide on the equator at 0 degree longitude. The four simulations differ by the amount of sulfur dioxide injected (5Tg per year and 2.5 Tg per year) and the altitude of the injection (16km-25km and 22km-25km). We find that such an injection dramatically alters the quasi-biennial oscillation, prolonging the phase of easterly shear with respect to the control simulation. In the case of maximum perturbation, i.e. highest stratospheric aerosol burden, the lower tropical stratosphere is locked into a permanent westerly QBO phase. This locked QBO westerly phase is caused by the increased aerosol heating and associated warming in the tropical lower stratosphere.

Geoengineering↗
DOE OSTI2022

Representing plant diversity in land models: An evolutionary approach to make “Functional Types” more functional

Plants are critical mediators of terrestrial mass and energy fluxes, and their structural and functional traits have profound impacts on local and global climate, biogeochemistry, biodiversity, and hydrology. Yet, Earth System Models (ESMs), our most powerful tools for predicting the effects of humans on the coupled biosphere-atmosphere system, simplify the incredible diversity of land plants into a handful of coarse categories of "Plant Functional Types" (PFTs) that often fail to capture ecological dynamics such as biome distributions. The inclusion of more realistic functional diversity is a recognized goal for ESMs, yet there is currently no consistent, widely accepted way to add diversity to models, that is, to determine what new PFTs to add and with what data to constrain their parameters. Here we review approaches to representing plant diversity in ESMs and draw on recent ecological and evolutionary findings to present an evolution-based functional type approach for further disaggregating functional diversity. Specifically, the prevalence of niche conservatism, or the tendency of closely related taxa to retain similar ecological and functional attributes through evolutionary time, reveals that evolutionary relatedness is a powerful framework for summarizing functional similarities and differences among plant types. We advocate that Plant Functional Types based on dominant evolutionary lineages ("Lineage Functional Types") will provide an ecologically defensible, tractable, and scalable framework for representing plant diversity in next-generation ESMs, with the potential to improve parameterization, process representation, and model benchmarking. We highlight how the importance of evolutionary history for plant function can unify the work of disparate fields to improve predictive modeling of the Earth system.

59 BASIC BIOLOGICAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2023

Responses in the Subpolar North Atlantic in Two Climate Model Sensitivity Experiments with Increased Stratospheric Aerosols

Abstract The subpolar North Atlantic (SPNA) shows contrasting responses in two sensitivity experiments with increased stratospheric aerosols, offering insight into the physical processes that may impact the Atlantic meridional overturning circulation (AMOC) in a warmer climate. In one, the upper ocean becomes warm and salty, but in the other it becomes cold and fresh. The changes are accompanied by diverging AMOC responses. The first experiment strengthens the AMOC, opposing the weakening trend in the reference simulation. The second experiment shows a much smaller impact. Both simulations use the Community Earth System Model with the Whole Atmosphere Community Climate Model component (CESM-WACCM) but differ in model versions and stratospheric aerosol specifications. Despite both experiments using similar approaches to increase stratospheric aerosols to counteract the rising global temperature, the contrasting SPNA and AMOC responses indicate a considerable dependency on model physics, climate states, and model responses to forcings. This study focuses on examining the physical processes involved with the impact of stratospheric aerosols on the SPNA salinity changes and their potential connections with the AMOC and the Arctic. We find that in both cases, increased stratospheric aerosols act to enhance the SPNA upper-ocean salinity by reducing freshwater export from the Arctic, which is closely tied to the Arctic sea ice changes. The impact on AMOC is primarily through the thermal component of the surface buoyancy fluxes, with negligible contributions from the freshwater component. These experiments shed light on the physical processes that dictate the important connections between the SPNA, the Arctic, the AMOC, and their subsequent feedbacks on the climate system.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2022

Building a machine learning surrogate model for wildfire activities within a global Earth system model

Abstract. Wildfire is an important ecosystem process, influencing land biogeophysical and biogeochemical dynamics and atmospheric composition. Fire-driven loss of vegetation cover, for example, directly modifies the surface energy budget as a consequence of changing albedo, surface roughness, and partitioning of sensible and latent heat fluxes. Carbon dioxide and methane emitted by fires contribute to a positive atmospheric forcing, whereas emissions of carbonaceous aerosols may contribute to surface cooling. Process-based modeling of wildfires in Earth system land models is challenging due to limited understanding of human, climate, and ecosystem controls on fire counts, fire size, and burned area. Integration of mechanistic wildfire models within Earth system models requires careful parameter calibration, which is computationally expensive and subject to equifinality. To explore alternative approaches, we present a deep neural network (DNN) scheme that surrogates the process-based wildfire model with the Energy Exascale Earth System Model (E3SM) interface. The DNN wildfire model accurately simulates observed burned area with over 90 % higher accuracy with a large reduction in parameterization time compared with the current process-based wildfire model. The surrogate wildfire model successfully captured the observed monthly regional burned area during validation period 2011 to 2015 (coefficient of determination, R2=0.93). Since the DNN wildfire model has the same input and output requirements as the E3SM process-based wildfire model, our results demonstrate the applicability of machine learning for high accuracy and efficient large-scale land model development and predictions.

58 GEOSCIENCES↗
NASA NTRS2013

Simulations of the Mid-Pliocene Warm Period Using Two Versions of the NASA-GISS ModelE2-R Coupled Model

The mid-Pliocene Warm Period (mPWP) bears many similarities to aspects of future global warming as projected by the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC, 2007). Both marine and terrestrial data point to high-latitude temperature amplification, including large decreases in sea ice and land ice, as well as expansion of warmer climate biomes into higher latitudes. Here we present our most recent simulations of the mid-Pliocene climate using the CMIP5 version of the NASAGISS Earth System Model (ModelE2-R). We describe the substantial impact associated with a recent correction made in the implementation of the Gent-McWilliams ocean mixing scheme (GM), which has a large effect on the simulation of ocean surface temperatures, particularly in the North Atlantic Ocean. The effect of this correction on the Pliocene climate results would not have been easily determined from examining its impact on the preindustrial runs alone, a useful demonstration of how the consequences of code improvements as seen in modern climate control runs do not necessarily portend the impacts in extreme climates.Both the GM-corrected and GM-uncorrected simulations were contributed to the Pliocene Model Intercomparison Project (PlioMIP) Experiment 2. Many findings presented here corroborate results from other PlioMIP multi-model ensemble papers, but we also emphasize features in the ModelE2-R simulations that are unlike the ensemble means. The corrected version yields results that more closely resemble the ocean core data as well as the PRISM3D reconstructions of the mid-Pliocene, especially the dramatic warming in the North Atlantic and Greenland-Iceland-Norwegian Sea, which in the new simulation appears to be far more realistic than previously found with older versions of the GISS model. Our belief is that continued development of key physical routines in the atmospheric model, along with higher resolution and recent corrections to mixing parameterisations in the ocean model, have led to an Earth System Model that will produce more accurate projections of future climate.

climate change↗
DOE OSTI2025

Testing NeuralGCM's capability to simulate future heatwaves based on the 2021 Pacific Northwest heatwave event

AI-based weather and climate models are emerging as accurate and computationally efficient tools. Beyond weather forecasting, they also show promise to accelerate storyline analyses. We evaluate NeuralGCM’s ability to simulate an extreme heatwave against the Energy Exascale Earth System Model (E3SM), a physics-based climate model. NeuralGCM accurately replicates the targeted event, and generates stable and realistic mid-century projections. However, due to the absence of land feedbacks, NeuralGCM underestimates the projected warming amplitude compared to physics-based model references.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2025

Global models predict clouds at the wrong time of day: Does it matter for radiation and climate?

Accurate prediction of future climate change hinges upon the ability of Earth system models (ESMs) to simulate clouds and their radiative effects. Even if an ESM can simulate the correct clouds, a systematic error in the amount of sunlight reflected by clouds (and, thus, cloud radiative effect) can exist if the clouds are simulated at the incorrect time of day. In this work, we develop an analytical model connecting diurnal cloud biases to emergent mean state radiative biases. With the use of satellite observations, we demonstrate that there are errors in the time of day that clouds are occurring in ESMs that would cause bias in shortwave cloud radiative effect (SWCRE) that is greater than 45% of the total SWCRE bias, but such errors in the cloud diurnal cycle are masked by other compensating errors, indicating that these ESMs are getting the right answer for the wrong reasons.

Geosciences↗
DOE OSTI2022

A framework for ensemble modelling of climate change impacts on lakes worldwide: the ISIMIP Lake Sector

Abstract. Empirical evidence demonstrates that lakes and reservoirs are warming across the globe. Consequently, there is an increased need to project future changes in lake thermal structure and resulting changes in lake biogeochemistry in order to plan for the likely impacts. Previous studies of the impacts of climate change on lakes have often relied on a single model forced with limited scenario-driven projections of future climate for a relatively small number of lakes. As a result, our understanding of the effects of climate change on lakes is fragmentary, based on scattered studies using different data sources and modelling protocols, and mainly focused on individual lakes or lake regions. This has precluded identification of the main impacts of climate change on lakes at global and regional scales and has likely contributed to the lack of lake water quality considerations in policy-relevant documents, such as the Assessment Reports of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC). Here, we describe a simulation protocol developed by the Lake Sector of the Inter-Sectoral Impact Model Intercomparison Project (ISIMIP) for simulating climate change impacts on lakes using an ensemble of lake models and climate change scenarios for ISIMIP phases 2 and 3. The protocol prescribes lake simulations driven by climate forcing from gridded observations and different Earth system models under various representative greenhouse gas concentration pathways (RCPs), all consistently bias-corrected on a 0.5∘ × 0.5∘ global grid. In ISIMIP phase 2, 11 lake models were forced with these data to project the thermal structure of 62 well-studied lakes where data were available for calibration under historical conditions, and using uncalibrated models for 17 500 lakes defined for all global grid cells containing lakes. In ISIMIP phase 3, this approach was expanded to consider more lakes, more models, and more processes. The ISIMIP Lake Sector is the largest international effort to project future water temperature, thermal structure, and ice phenology of lakes at local and global scales and paves the way for future simulations of the impacts of climate change on water quality and biogeochemistry in lakes.

58 GEOSCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2022

Impact of Tropical Cyclone Wind Forcing on the Global Climate in a Fully Coupled Climate Model

Tropical cyclones (TCs) alter upper-ocean temperature and influence ocean heat content via enhanced turbulent mixing. A better understanding of the role of TCs within the climate system requires a fully coupled modeling framework, where TC-induced ocean responses feed back to the atmosphere and subsequently to the climate mean state and variability. Here, we investigate the impacts of TC wind forcing on the global ocean and the associated feedbacks within the climate system using the fully coupled Community Earth System Model version 1.3 (CESM1.3). Using the low-resolution version of CESM1.3 (1° atmosphere and ocean grid spacing) with no intrinsic TCs, we conduct a suite of sensitivity experiments by inserting TC winds extracted from a high-resolution (0.25° atmosphere grid spacing) TC-permitting simulation into the low-resolution model. Results from the low-resolution TC experiment are compared to a low-resolution control simulation to diagnose TCs’ impact. We found that the added TC winds can increase ocean heat content by affecting ocean vertical mixing, air–sea enthalpy fluxes, and cloud amount. Here, the added TCs can influence mean SST, precipitation, ocean subsurface temperature, and ocean mixed layer depth. We found a strengthening of the wind-driven subtropical cells and a weakening of the Atlantic meridional overturning circulation due to the changes of surface buoyancy fluxes. TCs in the model cause anomalous equatorward ocean heat convergence in the deep tropics and an increase of poleward ocean heat transport out of the subtropics. Our modeling results provide new insights into the multiscale interactions between TCs and the coupled climate system.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2021

Evaluating Variable‐Resolution CESM Over China and Western United States for Use in Water‐Energy Nexus and Impacts Modeling

Abstract Climate models are critical tools to study earth system processes and are often further downscaled to provide refined‐resolution data sets for regional water‐energy impact analyses. In this study, the Variable‐Resolution Community Earth System Model (VR‐CESM), a new dynamical downscaling method, is employed to generate 1/8° simulations for China and the western United States over 1970–2006. Precipitation, temperature, snowpack, radiation, and wind speed are compared with two 1° global climate models, regional climate model ensemble, and reference data sets to evaluate their fidelity. Simulated precipitation skill is dependent upon the reference data sets used, a slight (<+10%) and spatially consistent wet bias in China during summer and the western United States during winter. Precipitation bias in VR‐CESM is the smallest among models and demonstrates the added value provided by resolution refinement. However, temperature biases are generally greater than precipitation due to more complicated interactions among processes. VR‐CESM simulates +2°C warm bias in the low‐elevation regions in China but −2°C cold bias in mountains. However, DJF cold bias (−2.23°C to−3.37°C) and JJA warm bias (+1.13°C to +1.87°C) exist in the western United States. The modeling skills of precipitation and temperature at various topographies are similar in the two evaluated regions. The cold bias was likely affected by downward shortwave radiation deficit (−15%) and slow bias of surface wind speeds (−16% to −29%). Despite the wet and cold bias, snow water equivalent and snow cover are underestimated in mountains. We conclude that VR‐CESM outperforms other models evaluated and provides the best estimation of downscaled climate model data for water‐energy studies.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
NASA NTRSDate not supplied

Climate Information and Lessons Learned from the NASA Earth eXchange (NEX), Short-term Prediction Research and Transition Center (NASA SPoRT), and the NASA Regional Climate Model Evaluation System (RCMES)

Climate resilience can emerge from a combination of (1) climate projections that enable future-oriented planning and (2) contemporary observations that can be used for adaptation in the face of realized climate. NASA is uniquely positioned to provide global climate projections and satellite-based observations to users who must take a global perspective on climate risk (e.g., supply chain managers). Here, we will share the capabilities and experiences of three NASA projects. The first project, the NASA Earth eXchange (NEX) provides two downscaled climate projections, NEX-GDDP-CMIP6, a global 25 km resolution product, and NEX-DCP30-CMIP6, an 800 m resolution product covering the coterminous U.S. specifically designed for U.S. National Climate Assessment (NCA). NEX also offers land surface products that mirror the twice-daily products provided by the Moderate Resolution Imaging Spectroradiometer (MODIS) but are derived from operational geostationary weather satellite data collected at 5-10 minutes intervals. The second project, the Short-term Prediction Research and Transition Center (SPoRT), was established in 2002 to transition unique NASA satellite products and capabilities to stakeholders to improve decision-making that benefits society. SPoRT provides products and capabilities derived from NASA observations and models to end users in government, academia, and the private sector. SPoRT translates NASA Earth science into actionable solutions reaching over 400 stakeholders across 80 organizations. Finally, the Regional Climate Model Evaluation System (RCMES) is designed to facilitate regional-scale evaluations of climate models by providing standardized access to a vast and comprehensive set of observations, such as satellite, in-situ, and reanalyses, and modeling resources such as CMIP & CORDEX. These three projects form part of the core capabilities at the NASA Centers deliver climate information under the new NASA Earth Science to Action (ES2A) strategy.

NEX↗
NASA NTRS2000

The Earth Observing System Terra Mission

Langley's remarkable solar and lunar spectra collected from Mt. Whitney inspired Arrhenius to develop the first quantitative climate model in 1896. After the launch in Dec. 16 1999, NASA's Earth Observing AM Satellite (EOS-Terra) will repeat Langley's experiment, but for the entire planet, thus pioneering a wide array of calibrated spectral observations from space of the Earth System. Conceived in response to real environmental problems, EOS-Terra, in conjunction with other international satellite efforts, will fill a major gap in current efforts by providing quantitative global data sets with a resolution smaller than 1 km on the physical, chemical and biological elements of the earth system. Thus, like Langley's data, EOS-Terra can revolutionize climate research by inspiring a new generation of climate system models and enable us to assess the human impact on the environment. In the talk I shall review the historical perspective of the Terra mission and the key new elements of the mission. We expect to have some first images that demonstrate the most innovative capability from EOS Terra: MODIS - 1.37 microns cirrus channel; 250 m daily cover for clouds and vegetation change; 7 solar channels for land and aerosol; new fire channels; Chlorophyll fluorescence; MISR - 9 multi angle views of clouds and vegetation; MOPITT - Global CO maps and CH4 maps; ASTER - Thermal channels for geological studies with 15-90 m resolution.

Kaufman, Yoram J.↗
NASA NTRS2000

The Earth Observing System Terra Mission

Langley's remarkable solar and lunar spectra collected from Mt. Whitney inspired Arrhenius to develop the first quantitative climate model in 1896. After the launch in Dec. 16 1999, NASA's Earth Observing AM Satellite (EOS-Terra) will repeat Langley's experiment, but for the entire planet, thus pioneering a wide array of calibrated spectral observations from space of the Earth System. Conceived in response to real environmental problems, EOS-Terra, in conjunction with other international satellite efforts, will fill a major gap in current efforts by providing quantitative global data sets with a resolution better than 1 km on the physical, chemical and biological elements of the earth system. Thus, like Langley's data, EOS-Terra can revolutionize climate research by inspiring a new generation of climate system models and enable us to assess the human impact on the environment. In the talk I shall review the historical perspective of the Terra mission and the key new elements of the mission. We expect to have first images that demonstrate the most innovative capability from EOS Terra 5 instruments: MODIS - 1.37 micron cirrus cloud channel; 250m daily coverage for clouds and vegetation change; 7 solar channels for land and aerosol studies; new fire channels; Chlorophyll fluorescence; MISR - first 9 multi angle views of clouds and vegetation; MOPITT - first global CO maps and C114 maps; ASTER - Thermal channels for geological studies with 15-90 m resolution.

Kaufman, Yoram J.↗
DOE OSTI2023

Evaluation of present-day extreme precipitation over the United States: an inter-comparison of convection and dynamic permitting configurations of E3SMv1

Abstract Accurate simulation of the present-day characteristics of mean and extreme precipitation at regional scales remains a challenge for Earth system models, which is due in part to deficiencies in model physics such as convective parameterization (CP), and coarse resolution. High horizontal resolution (HR, ∼25 km) and multiscale modeling framework (MMF, i.e. replacing conventional CP with embedded km-scale cloud-resolving models) are two promising directions that could help improve the interaction between subgrid-scale physical processes and large-scale climate. Here, we evaluate simulated extreme precipitation over the United States (US) across three configurations (i.e. low-resolution [LR], HR, and MMF) of the Energy Exascale Earth System Model (E3SMv1) and intercompare them against two gridded observation datasets (climate prediction center daily US precipitation and integrated multi-satellite retrievals for global precipitation measurement). We assess the model’s ability to simulate very heavy seasonal precipitation (illustrated by the difference between the 99th and 90th percentile values) as well as the spatial distributions of several extreme precipitation indices defined by the expert team on climate change detection and indices. Our results show that both the dry (i.e. consecutive dry days (CDD)) and wet (i.e. consecutive wet days, maximum 5 day precipitation, and very wet days) extremes evaluated herein show some improvement as well as degradation with MMF and HR relative to LR. These results vary across seasons and US subregions. For instance, only the very heavy precipitation of winter is improved with MMF and HR. Both configurations alleviate the well-known drizzling bias evident in LR across both winter and summer in many parts of the US, largely due to the overall improvement in intensity and frequency of precipitation. Additionally, our results suggest that while E3SMv1-MMF has higher intensity rates when it does rain, it has too many CDD during the summer, contributing to a low mean precipitation bias.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2024

Climate change will reduce North American inland wetland areas and disrupt their seasonal regimes

Abstract Climate change can alter wetland extent and function, but such impacts are perplexing. Here, changes in wetland characteristics over North America from 25° to 53° North are projected under two climate scenarios using a state-of-the-science Earth system model. At the continental scale, annual wetland area decreases by ~10% (6%-14%) under the high emission scenario, but spatiotemporal changes vary, reaching up to ±50%. As the dominant driver of these changes shifts from precipitation to temperature in the higher emission scenario, wetlands undergo substantial drying during summer season when biotic processes peak. The projected disruptions to wetland seasonality cycles imply further impacts on biodiversity in major wetland habitats of upper Mississippi, Southeast Canada, and the Everglades. Furthermore, wetlands are projected to significantly shrink in cold regions due to the increased infiltration as warmer temperature reduces soil ice. The large dependence of the projections on climate change scenarios underscores the importance of emission mitigation to sustaining wetland ecosystems in the future.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2020

Expanding the design space of stratospheric aerosol geoengineering to include precipitation-based objectives and explore trade-offs

Previous climate modeling studies demonstrate the ability of feedback-regulated, stratospheric aerosol geoengineering with injection at multiple independent latitudes to meet multiple simultaneous temperature-based objectives in the presence of anthropogenic climate change. However, the impacts of climate change are not limited to rising temperatures but also include changes in precipitation, loss of sea ice, and many more; knowing how a given geoengineering strategy will affect each of these climate metrics is vital to understanding the limits and trade-offs of geoengineering. Here, we first introduce a new method of visualizing the design space in which desired climate outcomes are represented by 2-D surfaces on a 3-D graph. Surface orientations represent how different injection choices influence that objective, and intersecting surfaces represent objectives which can be met simultaneously. Using this representation as a guide, we present simulations of two new strategies for feedback-regulated aerosol injection, using the Community Earth System Model with the Whole Atmosphere Community Climate Model – CESM1(WACCM). The first simultaneously manages global mean temperature, tropical precipitation centroid, and Arctic sea ice extent, while the second manages global mean precipitation, tropical precipitation centroid, and Arctic sea ice extent. Both simulations control the tropical precipitation centroid to within 5 % of the goal, and the latter controls global mean precipitation to within 1% of the goal. Additionally, the first simulation overcompensates sea ice, while the second undercompensates sea ice; all of these results are consistent with the expectations of our design space model. In addition to showing that precipitation-based climate metrics can be managed using feedback alongside other goals, our simulations validate the utility of our design space visualization in predicting our climate model behavior under a given geoengineering strategy, and together they help illustrate the fundamental limits and trade-offs of stratospheric aerosol geoengineering.

58 GEOSCIENCES↗