Phase I Final Technical Report - Virtual Reality to build strong Wind Energy Coastal Communities
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Sediment suspension and transport driven by waves and currents play a significant role in both the ecological and physical environments of large lakes. Lake Michigan has faced a rapidly increasing water level associated with intensified wind waves in the past decade. To investigate the spatiotemporal characteristics of suspended sediment concentration (SSC) and associated coastal sediment budgets in southern Lake Michigan, a 30-year (1991–2020) hindcast was performed using a coupled wave-current-sediment model (SWAN-FVCOM-CSTMS). We found that in southern Lake Michigan, the basin-wide mean SSC increased, and the coastal sediment loss accelerated dramatically, corresponding with intensified waves, currents and lake water level rises over the past decade. The basin-wide mean SSC, coastal sediment loss, wave height, wind speed, current speed, and water level in southern Lake Michigan are highly correlated. Spatially, the results reveal decreases in coastal SSC and sediment loss in the western portion of the southern basin, while the eastern sectors show an increase in both metrics. This reflects a clear shift in the wave climate and hydrodynamic environment. The alterations in long-term coastal sediment budgets imply that considerable shoreline transformations are being influenced by modifications in the wave climate. Understanding the spatiotemporal characteristics of SSC and coastal sediment budgets is crucial for strategic water resource management and coastal infrastructure planning.
Understanding the complex and unpredictable ways ecosystems are changing and predicting the state of ecosystems and the services they will provide in the future requires coordinated, long-term research. This paper is a product of a U.S. National Science Foundation funded Long Term Ecological Research (LTER)network synthesis effort that addressed anticipated changes in future populations and communities. Each LTER site described what their site would look like in50 or 100 yr based on long-term patterns and responses to global change drivers in each ecosystem. Common themes emerged and predictions were grouped into state change, connectivity, resilience, time lags, and cascading effects. Here, we report on the “state change” theme, which includes examples from the Georgia Coastal (coastal marsh), Konza Prairie (mesic grassland), Luquillo(tropical forest), Sevilleta (arid grassland), and Virginia Coastal (coastal grassland) sites. Ecological thresholds(the point at which small changes in an environmental driver can produce an abrupt and persistent state change in an ecosystem quality, property, or phenomenon) were most commonly predicted. For example, in coastal ecosystems, sea-level rise and climate change could convert salt marsh to mangroves and coastal barrier dunes to shrub thicket. Reduced fire frequency has converted grassland to shrubland in mesic prairie, whereas overgrazing combined with drought drive shrub encroachment in arid grasslands. Lastly, tropical cloud forests are susceptible to climate-induced changes in cloud base altitude leading to shifts in species distributions. Overall, these examples reveal that state change is a likely outcome of global environmental change across adverse range of ecosystems and highlight the need for long-term studies to sort out the causes and consequences of state change. The diversity of sites within the LTER network facilitates the emergence of overarching concepts about state changes as an important driver of ecosystem structure, function, services, and futures.
Accurate simulation of the diurnal cycle of precipitation over different climate regimes, including global monsoon systems, is an ongoing challenge for current state-of-the-art climate models. Here, in this study, the diurnal cycles of summertime precipitation from 21 CMIP6 historical simulations are evaluated with the NASA IMERG data via the diurnal harmonic amplitude and phase from the Fourier analysis in seven regional monsoon systems: Northern and Southern Africa monsoons, South Asia monsoon, East Asia monsoon, Australia monsoon, and North and South America monsoons. Particularly, we focus on four subregions including ocean, coastal ocean, land, and coastal land considering the different underlying physical processes. It is found that the CMIP6 historical simulations perform fairly well on reproducing the diurnal cycle of precipitation over ocean and coastal ocean, while the simulated diurnal harmonic phase and amplitude over land and coastal land show larger biases and model spread compared to biases over ocean and coastal ocean. The simulation of precipitation diurnal cycle is substantially improved in the multi-model mean of both CMIP6 historical and CMIP6 AMIP simulations compared with that of CMIP5 historical simulations. But the model bias of precipitation diurnal cycle is in general similar between CMIP6 AMIP and CMIP6 historical simulations, which suggests that the impact of the interactive ocean on the simulated diurnal precipitation averaged over a large domain is generally minor. The influence of model resolution on the diurnal cycle is shown in mixed directions across various subregions, and significant improvement from the low- to high-resolution models is only notable over coastal ocean.
Island and remote coastal communities face some of the most challenging environments for building, operating, and maintaining energy infrastructure, as well as the highest costs for electricity, fuels, and other essential energy sources. As sea-levels rise and storms become more intense and frequent, these communities and the energy infrastructure that supports coastal lives and livelihoods are also at increasing risk from natural hazards. To address these challenges, many coastal communities are envisioning energy solutions that will support the triple bottom line goals of the blue economy: economic growth, environmental sustainability, and social equity. Yet, island and remote coastal communities often face limited resources and capacity to tackle complex energy and coastal resilience issues. To support community-driven energy transitions in island and remote communities, and to better understand relationships between energy, community, and ecosystem resilience, the Department of Energy’s Water Power Technologies Office (WPTO) has initiated the development of a Deployment Readiness Framework (DRF). The objective of the work is to co-produce and test practical tools and approaches that assess the readiness of coastal communities for marine energy demonstration, deployment, and operation. The DRF aims to build on and support the Energy Transitions Initiative Partnership Program (ETIPP) and other community-oriented energy transition programs. This project is jointly led by Pacific Northwest National Laboratory (PNNL) and the National Renewable Energy Laboratory (NREL). The development of the DRF includes three main phases: 1) a learning phase involving stakeholder engagement and literature review to synthesize metrics of community readiness to advance through an energy transition and to understand the state of the research and practice of participatory science-policy processes in various sectors, 2) a design phase to define readiness approaches and tools that will be developed as part of the DRF, and 3) an implementation phase to create the applications and interfaces for WPTO and the national laboratories to interact with the DRF. All three phases include close collaboration with communities and end-users of the framework, first to identify gaps in the science and tools needed to achieve community-driven energy transition goals and second, to test and improve the framework iteratively. Through technical assistance programs like ETIPP and utilizing the completed DRF to understand the influencing factors which motivate or deter energy transitions, WPTO hopes to engage a number of near-term marine energy demonstration opportunities. Here we report on the results from the literature review (Subtask 1.1) to inform the stakeholder engagement (Subtask 1.2) and design phase (Task 2) of the project.
Sea-breeze circulations (SBCs) are common weather phenomena at and near coastal regions. They form because of a thermal gradient between the land surface at the coast and the sea surface. In a mid-day regime, a “thermal low” generated at the warm coast will lead to rising air motion, creating a wind shift coming from the sea near the surface displacing the coastal air. A “return flow” moving back towards the sea is generated by upper-level divergence because of the rising motion from the thermal low. SBCs propagate and serve as a method of urban pollutant dispersion in the Los Angeles region of California and are constrained to the coast due to the topography of surrounding mountains serving as a boundary for further inland propagation. Within the northeast U.S. SBCs are seen in the warm season but tend to remain coastally bound due to Coriolis distortion over long distances. Within the southeast U.S. (SEUS), the paradigmatic example of SBCs occurs over the Florida peninsula, where thunderstorms form on a nearly daily occurrence due to the convergence of SBCs from the east and west sides of the peninsula. However, there are further examples of sea-breezes in the SEUS that warrant study. Within the region bordering the SEUS and the Mid-Atlantic, just east of the southern Appalachian Mountains, warm-season SBCs form at the coast of Georgia and the Carolinas. Relatively flat topography ~150-200km inland allows for mostly unimpeded inland SBC propagation. Through visual analysis, Viner et al. catalogued several SBCs that propagated as far inland as the Central Savannah River Area surrounding Augusta, Georgia. Wermter et al. found that while the land-sea thermal gradient at the coast can influence coastal SBC genesis, the inland-coastal thermal gradient over the land is the primary influencer on the speed and depth of inland propagation of SBCs in this region. Additionally, soil moisture itself is a known correlative factor to sea-breeze formation, as it influences the soil temperature and the thermal gradient needed for SBC genesis and inland penetration. Physick determined that higher latent heat fluxes associated with wetter soil dampen the land-sea thermal gradient and suppress the formation of a SBC. Physick determined that higher latent heat fluxes associated with wetter soil dampen the land-sea thermal gradient and suppress the formation of a SBC. Conversely, drier soil enhances the thermal gradient and promotes SBC formation. However, while there is an inverse relationship between soil moisture and SBCs, higher soil moisture can actually promote more convective rainfall following a SBC if it does not significantly impact the thermal gradient. While the relationship between soil moisture and SBC formation has been conceptually explored and modeled numerically, there is a research gap in observed connections. The Soil Moisture Active Passive (SMAP) satellite mission has been operational since 2015 and has been used to create high-resolution re-analytical Level 4 (L4) datasets of soil moisture and soil temperature at different soil depths: the surface (0-5cm) and rootzone (0-1m). The surface soil temperature effectively acts as the “skin temperature” of the surface at these levels, and a spatial map of the land-sea as well as the coastal-inland thermal gradients can be represented. SMAP data are also assimilated in some atmospheric models such at the High Resolution Rapid Refresh (HRRR) mesoscale model. We propose leveraging the use of SMAP products to fill in spatial gaps left by weather and mesonet stations within the SEUS region, as well as assessing the effectiveness of utilizing SMAP products towards SBC forecasting in both deterministic and machine learning (ML) models.
Abstract Arctic coastal environments are eroding and rapidly changing. A lack of pan-Arctic observations limits our ability to understand controls on coastal erosion rates across the entire Arctic region. Here, we capitalize on an abundance of geospatial and remotely sensed data, in addition to model output, from the North Slope of Alaska to identify relationships between historical erosion rates and landscape characteristics to guide future modeling and observational efforts across the Arctic. Using existing datasets from the Alaska Beaufort Sea coast and a hierarchical clustering algorithm, we developed a set of 16 coastal typologies that captures the defining characteristics of environments susceptible to coastal erosion. Relationships between landscape characteristics and historical erosion rates show that no single variable alone is a good predictor of erosion rates. Variability in erosion rate decreases with increasing coastal elevation, but erosion rate magnitudes are highest for intermediate elevations. Areas along the Alaskan Beaufort Sea coast (ABSC) protected by barrier islands showed a three times lower erosion rate on average, suggesting that barrier islands are critical to maintaining mainland shore position. Finally, typologies with the highest erosion rates are not broadly representative of the ABSC and are generally associated with low elevation, north- to northeast-facing shorelines, a peaty pebbly silty lithology, and glaciomarine deposits with high ice content. All else being equal, warmer permafrost is also associated with higher erosion rates, suggesting that warming permafrost temperatures may contribute to higher future erosion rates on permafrost coasts. The suite of typologies can be used to guide future modeling and observational efforts by quantifying the distribution of coastlines with specific landscape characteristics and erosion rates.
Abstract Climate change is fundamentally altering marine and coastal ecosystems on a global scale. While the effects of ocean warming and acidification on ecology and ecosystem functions and services are being comprehensively researched, less attention is directed toward understanding the impacts of human‐driven ocean salinity changes. The global water cycle operates through water fluxes expressed as precipitation, evaporation, and freshwater runoff from land. Changes to these in turn modulate ocean salinity and shape the marine and coastal environment by affecting ocean currents, stratification, oxygen saturation, and sea level rise. Besides the direct impact on ocean physical processes, salinity changes impact ocean biological functions with the ecophysiological consequences are being poorly understood. This is surprising as salinity changes may impact diversity, ecosystem and habitat structure loss, and community shifts including trophic cascades. Climate model future projections (of end of the century salinity changes) indicate magnitudes that lead to modification of open ocean plankton community structure and habitat suitability of coral reef communities. Such salinity changes are also capable of affecting the diversity and metabolic capacity of coastal microorganisms and impairing the photosynthetic capacity of (coastal and open ocean) phytoplankton, macroalgae, and seagrass, with downstream ramifications on global biogeochemical cycling. The scarcity of comprehensive salinity data in dynamic coastal regions warrants additional attention. Such datasets are crucial to quantify salinity‐based ecosystem function relationships and project such changes that ultimately link into carbon sequestration and freshwater as well as food availability to human populations around the globe. It is critical to integrate vigorous high‐quality salinity data with interacting key environmental parameters (e.g., temperature, nutrients, oxygen) for a comprehensive understanding of anthropogenically induced marine changes and its impact on human health and the global economy.
This dataset contains soil biogeochemical and physicochemical characterization data for the COMPASS-FME synoptic sites.This dataset also contains data for the paper Patel et al. 2025 "Transition zones at the changing coastal terrestrial-aquatic interface", https://doi.org/10.1029/2025JG008978.Coastal soils are a significant but highly uncertain component of global biogeochemical cycles. These systems experience unique spatial and temporal variability in biogeochemical processes, driven by wetland-to-upland gradients and hydrological fluctuations. We studied drivers of coastal soil variability (a) at regional scales and (b) across transects from upland forest to wetland, in two contrasting regions — Lake Erie, a freshwater lacustrine system, and Chesapeake Bay, a saltwater estuarine system. Salinity-related analytes were a key driver of soil variability, not just in the saltwater system, but surprisingly, also in the freshwater system. We had hypothesized linear trends in biogeochemical parameters along the TAI – however, contrary to expectations, transition soils were not consistently intermediate between upland and wetland endmembers; the non-monotonic trends of carbon, phosphorus, iron along our transects suggest that these are key analytes to study in our regions. Rapidly changing soil factors across coastal gradients provide insights into which soil processes may act as precursors to ecosystem shifts. Our comprehensive soil characterization across the coastal transects provides essential data for mechanistic modeling of ecosystem dynamics.The data are provided as processed, csv files. Raw data and processing scripts can be accessed on GitHub (https://github.com/COMPASS-DOE/cmps-soil_characterization).A note on the nomenclature: the experimental design represents three points along the coastal gradient -- upland, transition, and wetland. "wetland" is referred to as "marsh" in the corresponding paper. The two terms can be used interchangeably for the sites in this study.
Abstract Dissolved oxygen (DO) is a key biogeochemical control in coastal systems, and its concentration and drivers vary markedly through time and space. This makes it difficult to accurately represent coastal DO and associated biogeochemical processes in models, limiting our ability to predict how these systems will respond to global change. We obtained high‐frequency (5‐min) in situ measurements of DO collected at three locations across the interface of a tidal creek and coastal marsh in the Pacific Northwest, USA. Random Forest machine learning models quantified the importance of three categories of environmental drivers (Aquatic, Climatic, and Terrestrial) of DO variability across the creek–marsh interface. We selected two 4‐month datasets representing Summer and Winter seasonal periods to test two hypotheses on the dominant drivers of DO at the coastal interface. We found that the Terrestrial driver—characterized by long periods of anaerobic conditions and episodic pulses in DO after floods—was most important during the Winter, whereas the Aquatic driver—characterized by variability over tidal, diel, and lunar cycles—was most important during the Summer. We explored how future climate change scenarios could alter the drivers of DO variability using a cumulative sums driver–response framework. Our results suggest that under climate change, Aquatic and Climatic drivers may increase in importance during the Summer, potentially linked to changing metabolic regimes and sea level, with Terrestrial driver importance potentially increasing during the Winter. Our approach highlights useful methods for understanding the spatiotemporal complexity of oxygen across coastal interfaces and quantifying the relative importance of distinct environmental drivers.
The hydrological and morphological dynamics across the Vietnam Mekong Delta (VMD) coastline are increasingly shaped by human interventions and climate change, affecting the sustainability of socio-economic environments. This study employs the TELEMAC-MASCARET modeling system (TELEMAC-2D, TOMAWAC, and SISYPHE modules) to simulate hydrodynamics, sediment transport, and morphological changes for a 10-year period under baseline (SC1) and future climate (SC2) scenarios, considering wave climatology of Northeast (NEM) and Southwest monsoons (SWM). The results of sedimentation and erosion were analyzed across five key coastal zones from Ca Mau Cape (KV1) to Ha Tien (KV5). Model results highlight distinct seasonal patterns of sediment redistribution shaped by monsoonal flows, wave action, and seabed morphology. During the NEM, sediment deposition is concentrated near estuarine zones, while the SWM favors offshore sediment accumulation due to perpendicular wave actions, and shallow, gently sloping bathymetry that dissipates wave energy. Coastal erosion predominantly occurs at convex shoreline features subjected to stronger coastal currents, particularly in fine-grained sediment areas. Under future sea level rise and land subsidence scenarios, reduced flow velocities lead to lower bottom shear stress, promoting deposition and mitigating erosion problems despite increased wave energy. Besides that, sediment transport analyses across 14 cross-sections (C-S) reveal a southward trend during the NEM and a northward reversal during the SWM, with upstream sediment reductions primarily influencing near-estuarine zones and exerting minimal impact beyond the mid-coastal regions. Furthermore, these findings advance the understanding of sediment redistribution processes under climate change and seasonal change, and provide a scientific basis for adaptive coastal management and sustainable development.
Prestressed concrete (PC) poles are becoming popular choices to support coastal power transmission systems. However, the existing literature does not offer a detailed analysis of the effectiveness of PC poles in terms of long-term vulnerabilities and the direct and indirect costs. This is due to (1) lack of fragility models for PC poles and (2) lack of probabilistic wind, storm surge, and wave models in coastal settings. In this study, we address these gaps through a series of Monte Carlo simulations to estimate fragility of PC poles as a function of age and hazard (wind, surges, and waves) intensity, and the development of a probabilistic hazard model based on 10,000 years of synthetic tropical cyclone data. The probabilistic hazard model is used in conjunction with high-resolution hydrodynamic models to generate realizations of coastal wind, storm surges, and waves for the Louisiana and Mississippi coasts. A comprehensive life cycle cost analysis for a service life of 70 years considering direct and indirect losses is conducted to compare the performance of a transmission line located in Pascagoula, Mississippi, when wood poles are replaced by PC poles. Results showed that aging has a minor effect on the reliability of PC poles, highlighting the advantages of replacing wood poles with PC poles, especially in coastal areas. In addition, PC poles are significantly more cost-effective compared with wood poles over their life cycle, leading to an estimated saving of $11.55 million (68.17% reduction). The results of this study provide key insight to inform decision-making processes to keep the coastal power grids resilient and cost-effective against future storm hazards.
Manifestations of climate change in the Arctic are numerous and include hydrological cycle intensification and permafrost thaw, both expected as a result of atmospheric and surface warming. Across the terrestrial Arctic dissolved organic carbon (DOC) entrained in arctic rivers may be providing a carbon subsidy to coastal food webs. Yet, data from field sampling is too often of limited duration to confidently ascertain impacts of climate change on freshwater and DOC flows to coastal waters. This study applies numerical modeling to investigate trends in freshwater and DOC exports from land to Elson Lagoon in Northwest Alaska over the period 1981-2020. While the modeling approach has limitations, the results point to significant increases in freshwater and DOC exports to the lagoon over the past four decades. The model simulation reveals significant increases in surface, subsurface (suprapermafrost), and total freshwater exports. Significant increases are also noted in surface and subsurface DOC production and export, influenced by warming soils and associated active-layer thickening. The largest changes in subsurface components are noted in September, which has experienced a ~50% increase in DOC export emanating from suprapermafrost flow. Direct coastal suprapermafrost freshwater and DOC exports in late summer more than doubled between the first and last five years of the simulation period, with a large anomaly in September 2019 representing a more than fourfold increase over September direct coastal export during the early 1980s. These trends highlight the need for dedicated measurement programs that will enable improved understanding of climate change impacts on coastal zone processes in this data sparse region of Northwest Alaska.