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At least 343 records · Page 19

Nature of innovations affecting photovoltaic system costs

Innovations improve technology costs through various kinds of engineering advancements, including changes to materials choices and device or process designs. Understanding how these innovations relate to cost change can reveal aspects of the process of technology evolution, yet developing such understanding is often not possible with a strictly quantitative approach due to data limitations. In this paper we develop a hybrid quantitative-qualitative framework for relating specific innovations to cost change by using the variables in a quantitative technology cost change model as an organizing principle. We demonstrate this framework by applying it to the cost decline in photovoltaic (PV) systems over the last five decades. This framework generates new understanding of a set of innovations that contributed to PV modules’ sustained cost decline and the more modest trends observed in balance-of-system (BOS) costs. The results show the great diversity of innovations that affected PV costs, drawing on wide-ranging fields of expertise within scientific research and practice. We find that there are differences in the characteristics of innovations that reduced the cost of PV modules compared to innovations influencing BOS costs. Numerous module innovations reduced costs by advancing manufacturing tools and processes that improved material quality. Many BOS innovations reduced costs through a combination of component design changes, integration, automation, digitalization, and standardization. Overall, most innovations in our sample affected PV hardware. However, some also target ‘soft technologies’ such as task durations through innovations like fast-track permitting, which require improved collaboration and process streamlining. This framework also provides insight into the nature of knowledge spillovers between technologies. Both module and BOS hardware innovations show the benefits of PV’s position within an ‘ecosystem’ of continuously advancing technologies in many industries, in particular semiconductors and electronics, and also point to the importance of public institutions for accelerating testing, permitting, and training.

14 SOLAR ENERGY↗

Frequency-Dependent Time Lags in Three Blazars

The work completed includes the analysis of observations obtained during Cycle 6 of the Rossi X-ray Timing Explorer (RXTE). The project is part of a longer-term, continuing program to study the X-ray emission process in blazars in collaboration with Dr. Ian McHardy (U. of Southampton, UK). The goals of the program are to study the X-ray emission mechanism in blazars and the relation of the X-ray emission to changes in the relativistic jet. The program includes contemporaneous brightness and linear polarization monitoring at radio and optical wavelengths, total and polarized intensity imaging at 43 GHz with a resolution of 0.1 milliarcseconds with the VLBA, and well-sampled X-ray light curves obtained from a series of approved RXTE programs. During RXTE cycle 6, the project was awarded RXTE time to monitor three quasars: PKS 1510-089 two times per week, and 3C 273 and 3C 279 three times per week each. The X-ray data, including those from earlier cycles, were compared with radio measurements obtained 2-3 times per week in the centimeter-wave band with the Michigan radio telescope, monthly imaging observations with the VLBA at 43 GHz, and optical observations obtained at several telescopes around the world. Since it is the long-term X-ray light curve that is of greatest value, this report includes discussion of all the data collected through August 2003 rather than just the Cycle 6 data.

Marscher, Alan P.↗

2015 Annual Report for the Flight Opportunities Program

Welcome to this third edition of the Flight Opportunities program annual report. In this edition, we continue our story of pathfinding NASA's role in the partnership with the U.S. commercial space and space technology R&D communities to advance national space interests and develop technologies critical to NASA's future missions. 2015 was the year in which a planned change to our payload solicitation strategy saw its first tangible result. As you might remember from our 2014 annual report, in 2015 we set out to facilitate a more direct interaction between flight providers and technology developers by providing fixed funding awards to researchers to directly purchase the flight service(s) that best meet their needs. The selection and award of the first six REDDI-F1 flight grants to non-U.S. government researchers was an important milestone in this regard. From now on, using the REDDI-F1 solicitation appendix, the program will enable non-U.S. government researchers to directly purchase flight services on the emerging suborbital market. The same (or similar) commercial flight services will be available to NASA and other U.S. government agencies (OGA) through commercial contracts that NASA has established through our program. For the latter, our program is available to provide campaign management services, similar to the role we play(ed) for technology payloads remaining in our pool from earlier selections. The full impact of this broader strategic change will likely become more visible in the years ahead as our legacy pool gets depleted and we have implemented a new NASA- and OGA-specific call for proposals. One observation that can already be made after two rounds of REDDI-F1 solicitations is that through this change, the list of commercial flight service providers of interest to non-U.S. government researchers has grown from five in 2014 to nine in 2015. On the industry development front, our Announcement of Collaborative Opportunities (ACO) solicitation was promoted to an STMD-wide solicitation and released in 2015 in combination with the Tipping Point solicitation. A total of 22 awards was announced in November 2015, 12 of which are ACO awards, and six of these are funded by Flight Opportunities. Through these ACO awards, the program funds NASA technical expertise and NASA test facilities to aid industry partners in maturing key space technologies, in our case focusing on small launch vehicle technology development. Flight test activity in 2015 saw a steady 13 campaigns with 31 payload-flights (29 unique payloads). Thirteen new payloads were selected into the program in FY2015, and 14 payloads completed flight testing, bringing the total number of completed technology demonstration payloads to 69. Overall, we are pleased with the evolution and growth of the Flight Opportunities program and look forward to continued success in our partnership with the technology R&D community and the commercial space sector.

Flight Testing↗

Development and Validation of an Automated Simulation Capability in Support of Integrated Demand Management

Integrated Demand Management (IDM) is a near- to mid-term NASA concept that proposes to address mismatches in air traffic system demand and capacity by using strategic flow management capabilities to pre-condition demand into the more tactical Time-Based Flow Management System (TBFM). This paper describes an automated simulation capability to support IDM concept development. The capability closely mimics existing human-in-the-loop (HITL) capabilities, automating both the human components and collaboration between operational systems, and speeding up the real-time aircraft simulations. Such a capability allows for parametric studies that will inform the HITL simulations, identifying breaking points and parameter values at which significant changes in system behavior occur. This paper also describes the initial validation of individual components of the automated simulation capability, and an example application comparing the performance of the IDM concept under two TBFM scheduling paradigms. The results and conclusions from this simulation compare closely to those from previous HITL simulations using similar scenarios, providing an initial validation of the automated simulation capability.

Integrated Demand Management↗

GQuEST Control System Resolution

GQuEST (Gravity from Quantum Entanglement of Space-Time), is a collaboration verifying a quantum gravity model by measuring holographic effects on a microscopic scale. Its interferometer apparatus filters excessive optical noise and requires a control system that can adjust the filtration to accommodate for frequency changes in the output light. We stress-test this control system by simulating filter behaviors with parameters in their outermost regimes, and we have determined a threshold that maintains precision while minimizing resource usage. These results are important for the successful operation of GQuEST's interferometer, enabling more accurate tests of quantum gravity models and thereby advancing our understanding of gravity at the quantum mechanical level.

Nguyen, David↗

Diagnostic Studies with GLA Fields

Assessments of the NASA Goddard Earth Observing System-1 Data Assimilation System(GEOS-1 DAS), regarding heating rates, energetics, and angular momentum quantities were made. These diagnostics can be viewed as measures of climate variability. Comparisons with the NOAA/NCEP reanalysis system of momentum and energetics diagnostics are included. Water vapor and angular momentum are diagnosed in many models, including those of NASA, as part of the Atmospheric Model Intercomparison Project. 'Me GEOS-I and NOAA/NCEP global atmospheric angular momentum values are coherent on time scales down to about three days. Furthermore, they agree with the series of Earth angular momentum, as measured by tiny fluctuations in the rotation rate of the Earth, as variations in the length of day. The torques that effect such changes in atmospheric and Earth momentum are dominated by the influence of particular mountain systems, including the Rockies, Himalayas, and Andes, upon mountain torques on time scales shorter than about two weeks. Other project areas included collaboration with Goddard Space Flight Center to examine the impact of mountainous areas and the treatments of parameterizations on diagnoses of the atmosphere. Relevant preprints are included herein.

Salstein, David A.↗

Space analogue studies in Antarctica

Medical research has been carried out on the Australian National Antarctic Research Expeditions (ANARE) for 50 years. As an extension of this program collaborative Australian/United States research on immunology, microbiology, psychology and remote medicine has produced important data and insight on how humans adapt to the stress of extreme isolation, confinement and the harsh environment of Antarctica. An outstanding analogue for the isolation and confinement of space missions (especially planetary outposts), ANARE has been used as an international research platform by Australia and the United States since 1993. Collaborative research has demonstrated a lowered responsiveness of the immune system under the isolation and confinement of Antarctic winter-over; a reduction of almost 50% in T cell proliferation to mitogen phytohaemogglutinin, as well as changes in latent herpesvirus states and the expansion of the polyclonal latent Epstein-Barr virus infected B cell populations. Although no clinically significant disease has been found to result from these immune changes, research is currently assessing the effects of psychological factors on the immune system. This and associated research performed to date and its relevance to both organisations is discussed, and comment made on possible extensions to the program in both medical and other fields.

NASA Center HQS↗

Solar Array Structures for 300 kW-Class Spacecraft

State-of-the-art solar arrays for spacecraft provide on the order of 20 kW of electrical power, and they usually consist of 3J solar cells bonded to hinged rigid panels about 1 inch in thickness. This structural construction allows specific mass and packaging volumes of up to approximately 70 W/kg and 15 kW/m3 to be achieved. Significant advances in solar array structures are required for future very-high-power spacecraft (300+ kW), such as those proposed for pre-positioning heavy cargo on or near the Moon, Mars, or asteroids using solar electric propulsion. These applications will require considerable increases in both W/kg and kW/m3, and will undoubtedly require the use of flexible-substrate designs. This presentation summarizes work sponsored by NASA's Game Changing Development Program since Oct. 2011 to address the challenge of developing 300+ kW solar arrays. The work is primarily being done at NASA Langley, NASA Glenn, and two contractor teams (ATK and DSS), with technical collaboration from AFRL/Kirtland. The near-tem objective of the project is design, analysis, and testing of 30-50 kW solar array designs that are extensible to the far-term objective of 300+ kW. The work is currently focused on three designs: the MegaFlex concept by ATK, the Mega-ROSA concept by DSS, and an in-house 300-kW Government Reference Array concept. Each of these designs will be described in the presentation. Results obtained to date by the team, as well as future work plans, for the design, analysis, and testing of these large solar array structures will be summarized.

Pappa, Richard↗

Analysis of the Capacity Potential of Current Day and Novel Configurations for New York's John F. Kennedy Airport

In 2015, a series of systems analysis studies were conducted on John F. Kennedy Airport in New York (NY) in a collaborative effort between NASA and the Port Authority of New York and New Jersey (PANYNJ). This work was performed to build a deeper understanding of NY airspace and operations to determine the improvements possible through operational changes with tools currently available, and where new technology is required for additional improvement. The analysis was conducted using tool-based mathematical analyses, video inspection and evaluation using recorded arrival/departure/surface traffic captured by the Aerobahn tool (used by Kennedy Airport for surface metering), and aural data archives available publically through the web to inform the video segments. A discussion of impacts of trajectory and operational choices on capacity is presented, including runway configuration and usage (parallel, converging, crossing, shared, independent, staggered), arrival and departure route characteristics (fix sharing, merges, splits), and how compression of traffic is staged. The authorization in March of 2015 for New York to use reduced spacing under the Federal Aviation Administration (FAA) Wake Turbulence Recategorization (RECAT) also offers significant capacity benefit for New York airports when fully transitioned to the new spacing requirements, and the impact of these changes for New York is discussed. Arrival and departure capacity results are presented for each of the current day Kennedy Airport configurations. While the tools allow many variations of user-selected conditions, the analysis for these studies used arrival-priority, no-winds, additional safety buffer of 5% to the required minimum spacing, and a mix of traffic typical for Kennedy. Two additional "novel" configurations were evaluated. These configurations are of interest to Port Authority and to their airline customers, and are believed to offer near-term capacity benefit with minimal operational and equipage changes. One of these is the addition of an Optimized Profile Descent (OPD) route to runways 22L and 22R, and the other is the simultaneous use of 4 runways, which is not currently done at Kennedy. The background and configuration for each of these is described, and the capacity results are presented along with a discussion of drawbacks and enablers for each.

Glaab, Patricia↗

Spatial Predictive Modeling and Remote Sensing of Land Use Change in the Chesapeake Bay Watershed

This project was focused on modeling the processes by which increasing demand for developed land uses, brought about by changes in the regional economy and the socio-demographics of the region, are translated into a changing spatial pattern of land use. Our study focused on a portion of the Chesapeake Bay Watershed where the spatial patterns of sprawl represent a set of conditions generally prevalent in much of the U.S. Working in the region permitted us access to (i) a time-series of multi-scale and multi-temporal (including historical) satellite imagery and (ii) an established network of collaborating partners and agencies willing to share resources and to utilize developed techniques and model results. In addition, a unique parcel-level tax assessment database and linked parcel boundary maps exists for two counties in the Maryland portion of this region that made it possible to establish a historical cross-section time-series database of parcel level development decisions. Scenario analyses of future land use dynamics provided critical quantitative insight into the impact of alternative land management and policy decisions. These also have been specifically aimed at addressing growth control policies aimed at curbing exurban (sprawl) development. Our initial technical approach included three components: (i) spatial econometric modeling of the development decision, (ii) remote sensing of suburban change and residential land use density, including comparisons of past change from Landsat analyses and more traditional sources, and (iii) linkages between the two through variable initialization and supplementation of parcel level data. To these we added a fourth component, (iv) cellular automata modeling of urbanization, which proved to be a valuable addition to the project. This project has generated both remote sensing and spatially explicit socio-economic data to estimate and calibrate the parameters for two different types of land use change models and has undertaken analyses of these models. One (the CA model) is driven largely by observations on past patterns of land use change, while the other (the EC model) is driven by mechanisms of the land use change decision at the parcel level. Our project may be the first serious attempt at developing both types of models for the same area, using as much common data as possible. We have identified the strengths and weaknesses of the two approaches and plan to continue to revise each model in the light of new data and new lessons learned through continued collaboration. Questions, approaches, findings, publication and presentation lists concerning the research are also presented.

Goetz, Scott J.↗

Collision Avoidance "Short Course" Part III: CA in Changing Space Flight Environment

Satellite conjunction assessment is perhaps the fastest-growing area in space situational awareness and protection, with military, civil, and commercial satellite owner/operators embracing more and more sophisticated processes to "avoid the avoidable" namely collisions between high-value space assets and orbital debris. NASA and CNES have collaborated to offer an introductory short course on all the major aspects of the conjunction assessment problem. This half-day course will cover satellite conjunction dynamics and theory, JSpOC conjunction data products, major risk assessment parameters and plots, conjunction remediation decision support, and present and future challenges. This briefing represents the NASA portion of the course.

Newman, Lauri↗

A Global Land Cover Training Dataset From 1984 to 2020

State-of-the-art cloud computing platforms such as Google Earth Engine (GEE) enable regional-to-global land cover and land cover change mapping with machine learning algorithms. However, collection of high-quality training data, which is necessary for accurate land cover mapping, remains costly and labor-intensive. To address this need, we created a global database of nearly 2 million training units spanning the period from 1984 to 2020 for seven primary and nine secondary land cover classes. Our training data collection approach leveraged GEE and machine learning algorithms to ensure data quality and biogeographic representation. We sampled the spectral-temporal feature space from Landsat imagery to efficiently allocate training data across global ecoregions and incorporated publicly available and collaborator-provided datasets to our database. To reflect the underlying regional class distribution and post-disturbance landscapes, we strategically augmented the database. We used a machine learning-based cross-validation procedure to remove potentially mis-labeled training units. Our training database is relevant for a wide array of studies such as land cover change, agriculture, forestry, hydrology, urban development, among many others.

Radost Stanimirova↗

Axionlike particles and sterile neutrinos solve the 𝐵 → 𝐾⁢$𝜈⁢\bar{𝜈}$ and 𝐵 → 𝜋⁢𝐾 puzzles

The recent measurement of the branching ratio of 𝐵 + → 𝐾 + +inv (where “inv” denotes invisible states) by the Belle II Collaboration is enhanced relative to the standard model expectation by 2.7⁢𝜎. An older puzzle persists in measurements of the branching ratios and 𝐶⁢𝑃 asymmetries of 𝐵 → 𝜋⁢𝐾 decays. We address these two anomalies in flavor-changing neutral current 𝐵 decays, with a short-lived axionlike particle (ALP) with mass close to that of the 𝜋 0 . In the model with the minimum number of new couplings, the ALP has couplings to the photon, top quark and a heavy sterile neutrino. The ALP contributes to the 𝐵 → 𝜋 0 ⁢𝐾 decays by mixing with the 𝜋 0 . It contributes to 𝐵 + → 𝐾 + + inv by its off-shell coupling to sterile neutrino pairs. The model can explain the excess in the total rate, but not the observed distribution of signal events. We make predictions for all 𝐵 → 𝐾 (*) + inv modes and for the rare kaon decays, 𝐾 + → 𝜋 + + inv and 𝐾 𝐿 → 𝜋 0 + inv. We find an appreciable contribution to the magnetic moment of the muon, and negligible contributions to the magnetic moment of the electron and 𝑏 → 𝑠⁢𝑒 + ⁢𝑒 − .

axion-like particles↗

WETO Software Stack Best Practices

Wind energy researchers typically share one key characteristic: a passion for increasing wind energy in the global energy mix. The U.S. Department of Energy (DOE) supports this mission in a number of ways including allocating funding directly to various aspects of wind energy research through the Office of Energy Efficiency and Renewable Energy (EERE) via the Wind Energy Technologies Office (WETO). While the traditional output of research is academic publication, software development efforts are increasingly a major focus. Software tools in the research environment allow researchers to describe an idea and quickly increase the scope and scale as they study it further. As a product of research, these tools represent a direct pipeline from researcher to industry practitioners since they are the implementation of ideas described in academic publications. Given this vital role in wind energy research and commercial development, the broad research software portfolio supported by WETO must maintain a minimum level of quality to support the wind energy field in the growing transition to renewable energy. This report outlines a series o f best practices to be adopted by all WETO-supported software projects, as well as expectations that the communities interacting with these projects should have of the developers and tools themselves. Wind energy research software has a unique standing in the field of scientific software. The stakeholders are varied with a subset being: (1) DOE EERE leadership, (2) DOE WETO leadership and program managers, (3) National lab leadership, (4) Associated project principle investigators, (5) Research software engineers, (6) Wind energy researchers in academia (including graduate students, post docs, and national lab staff), (7) Industry researchers and practitioners, (8) Commercial software developers, and (9) The general public interested in wind energy. These software are typically the end-user of other generic software libraries, so the funding cycles are often tied to applied research rather than the development of the software itself. Since the developers are also wind energy researchers, these tools are typically designed in a way that closely resembles the application in which they're used. Additionally, the expertise and incentives for the developers have a high variability, and often neither are aligned with software engineering or computer science. Given the unique environment in which wind energy research software is produced and consumed, it is critical for model owners to understand the context of their software. A framework for developing this understanding is to answer the following questions of a given software project: What is it's purpose? What is its role in the field of wind energy? What is the profile of the expected users? For how long will it be relevant? What is the expected impact? These questions allow model owners to identify the appropriate methods for the design, development, and long term maintenance of their software. Additionally, the answer provide context for future planners to understand why particular decisions were made and discern the consequences of changing course. The information is aggregated from experience within WETO-supported software development groups as well as external organizations and efforts to define the craft of research software engineering. These best practices aim to make the collaborative development process efficient and effective while improving the model understanding across stakeholders. Additionally, the general adoption of a common framework for software quality ensures that the end users of WETO software can trust these tools and accurately understand the risks to workflow integration.

17 WIND ENERGY↗

Search for a Cloud Phase Feedback in the Arctic Climate System

This project was motivated by a hypothesis involving the transition in lower troposphere temperatures across the freezing point of water. Specifically, at temperatures just below to about ten degrees below freezing, Arctic clouds should be in a mixed-phase, with strong influences from secondary ice production (e.g., the Hallett-Mossop process). At temperatures just above freezing, clouds should become entirely deglaciated. We hypothesized that, with multiple years of ARM data, a statistically significant change could be detected in cloud radiative properties and surface radiative fluxes that could be directly attributed to this phase change. Furthermore, in a gradually warming climate, these phase change-related responses in surface radiation would represent a cloud phase feedback as part of Arctic amplification. We designed this research project to coincide with a new ARM Arctic cloud radar product developed by Ed Luke and collaborators at BNL (Luke et al., 2021: PNAS, doi:10.1073/pnas.2021387118) that explicitly contains SIP cloud properties retrieved from radar data. This research project has successfully concluded after analysis of a much larger North Slope of Alaska (NSA) data sample than originally anticipated, and the results are quite different than originally hypothesized.

58 GEOSCIENCES↗

Sentiment of Search: KM and IT for User Expectations

User perceived value is the number one indicator of a successful implementation of KM and IT collaborations. The system known as "Search" requires more strategy and workflow that a mere data dump or ungoverned infrastructure can provide. Monitoring of user sentiment can be a driver for providing objective measures of success and justifying changes to the user interface. The dynamic nature of information technology makes traditional usability metrics difficult to identify, yet easy to argue against. There is little disagreement, however, on the criticality of adapting to user needs and expectations. The Systems Usability Scale (SUS), developed by John Brook in 1986 has become an industry standard for usability engineering. The first phase of a modified SUS, polls the sentiment of representative users of the JSC Search system. This information can be used to correlate user determined value with types of information sought and how the system is (or is not) meeting expectations. Sentiment analysis by way of the SUS assists an organization in identification and prioritization of the KM and IT variables impacting user perceived value. A secondary, user group focused analysis is the topic of additional work that demonstrates the impact of specific changes dictated by user sentiment.

Berndt, Sarah Ann↗

Operations Concept for Responding to Urgent Requests for NASA-ISRO Synthetic Aperture Radar (NISAR)

The NASA-ISRO Synthetic Aperture Radar, or NISAR, mission is an Earth-mapping radar observatory to be launched from Sriharikota (India) in 2022. This mission is a collaboration between the National Aeronautics and Space Administration (NASA) and the Indian Space Research Organization (ISRO). This spacecraft will carry two instruments that will operate at radar wavelengths (L and Sband) and will provide data for understanding changes in the Earth’s land surface. The scientific data from this mission will revolutionize our understanding of the causes and consequences of land surface changes on Earth, ranging from Solid Earth Deformation in the form of natural hazards like earthquakes, volcanic eruptions and landslides, to ecosystem disturbances, to changes in the cryosphere (measurements of polar ice caps, ice sheets and sea ice). A nominal Reference Observation Plan, that repeats roughly every 12-24 days, developed prior to launch by the NISAR Mission Planning team, in consultation with the Science Team, will form the basis of science data collection by the payload instruments onboard the NISAR observatory after launch. Scheduling of science observations for the mission requires accounting for limited spacecraft resources like onboard data storage, downlink capacity, energy/power, thermal limits and instrument duty cycles. In addition to nominal science data collection, the project has a Level 1 requirement to respond to requests for urgent data acquisition over disaster sites (natural or anthropogenic) by scheduling new acquisitions within 24 hrs of notification and delivering science data within 5 hours of data acquisition. This capability is to be exercised on a ‘best-efforts basis’. While the definition of what constitutes an ‘urgent request’, and how such requests would be submitted to the project, is within the domain of the Science Team, the Mission System team is responsible for developing the baseline operations concept and implementation approach for responding to such requests. Given the ‘best-efforts’ nature of this requirement, a few highlevel guidelines have been developed to help guide the formulation of the operations concept, and are presented in this paper. Requests for urgent response data will be accommodated following the guiding principle of minimal to no impact on nominal science and planned engineering activities. No change in satellite orbit or attitude will be made for urgent response. Restricting response approaches to only changing the downlink and/or ground processing priority for existing observations, and adding new observations only in areas where NISAR will not be nominally imaging, allows for minimal impact on the Reference science Observation Plan. No instrument mode changes will be allowed for urgent response (except for high-priority requests), and no new observations that impact either planned science or engineering activities will be scheduled. Additionally, data requests must fit within the available project resource margins (both spacecraft and ground resources are to be evaluated). Both JPL and ISRO will be involved at various steps of the implementation, irrespective of whether the urgent request is for L-SAR (NASA instrument) or S-SAR (ISRO instrument) or a joint dataset.

Sharma, Priyanka↗

Collision Avoidance "Short Course" Part III: CA Role in Changing Space Flight Environment

Satellite conjunction assessment is perhaps the fastest-growing area in space situational awareness and protection, with military, civil, and commercial satellite owner operators embracing more and more sophisticated processes to avoid the avoidable namely collisions between high-value space assets and orbital debris. NASA and CNES have collaborated to offer an introductory short course on all the major aspects of the conjunction assessment problem. This half-day course will cover satellite conjunction dynamics and theory, JSpOC conjunction data products, major risk assessment parameters and plots, conjunction remediation decision support, and present and future challenges. This briefing represents the NASA portion of the course.

conjunction assessment↗