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At least 343 records · Page 19

Machine learning prediction of connectivity, biodiversity and resilience in the Coral Triangle

Abstract Even optimistic climate scenarios predict catastrophic consequences for coral reef ecosystems by 2100. Understanding how reef connectivity, biodiversity and resilience are shaped by climate variability would improve chances to establish sustainable management practices. In this regard, ecoregionalization and connectivity are pivotal to designating effective marine protected areas. Here, machine learning algorithms and physical intuition are applied to sea surface temperature anomaly data over a twenty-four-year period to extract ecoregions and assess connectivity and bleaching recovery potential in the Coral Triangle and surrounding oceans. Furthermore, the impacts of the El Niño Southern Oscillation (ENSO) on biodiversity and resilience are quantified. We find that resilience is higher for reefs north of the Equator and that the extraordinary biodiversity of the Coral Triangle is dynamic in time and space, and benefits from ENSO. The large-scale exchange of genetic material is enhanced between the Indian Ocean and the Coral Triangle during La Niña years, and between the Coral Triangle and the central Pacific in neutral conditions. Through machine learning the outstanding biodiversity of the Coral Triangle, its evolution and the increase of species richness are contextualized through geological times, while offering new hope for monitoring its future.

59 BASIC BIOLOGICAL SCIENCES↗

Primary defect production from molecular dynamics simulations of high-energy displacement cascades in NbMoTaW alloys

In this work, we report on large-scale molecular-dynamics (MD) simulations of displacement cascades in equiatomic NbMoTaW alloys at PKA energies ranging from 0.15 to 150 keV. We find defect production to be strongly dependent on recoil energy, scaling sublinearly up to 10 keV, and linearly thereafter. We find the sublinear regime to be defined by low values of surviving Frenkel pairs, typically found as isolated point defects or small defect clusters, while at higher recoil energies dense cascades become more frequent, leading to splitting into subcascades and the production of relatively large prismatic-dislocation loops with ⟨111⟩ and ⟨001⟩ Burgers vectors. These loops immobilize large fractions of defects, leading to a rapid growth of the number of surviving defects in the linear regime. We also anneal post-cascade defect configurations using object-kinetic Monte Carlo (OKMC) simulations to account for intracascade recombination on time scales not accessible to MD simulations. Cascade annealing is strongly temperature dependent, with the OKMC simulations only showing significant recovery at 1000 K but not below. Our results are in general agreement with existing published data for refractory concentrated alloys.

Zhou, Xinran [Lawrence Berkeley National Laborator↗

Application of a Heat Integrated Post-combustion CO 2 Capture System with Hitachi Advanced Solvent into Existing Coal-Fired Power Plant (Final Technical Report)

The goal of this final project report is to comprehensively summarize the work conducted on project DE-FE0007395. In accordance with the Project Management Plan (PMP), Revision F dated 5/10/2019, and Statement of Project Objectives (SOPO) within, the University of Kentucky (UK) Center for Applied Energy Research (CAER) (Recipient) has successfully demonstrated a unique, versatile CO 2 capture system (CCS) using a heat integrated process combined with two-stage stripping for process intensification, heat recovery and demineralized (DM) water generation. This project involved the design, fabrication, installation, testing of and data analysis from the UK CAER 0.7 MWe small pilot scale CO2 capture process installed at Kentucky Utilities (KU) E.W. Brown Generating Station in Harrodsburg, KY. During each of the four project Budget Periods (BPs), UK CAER met all project deliverables, all project milestones, with National Energy Technology Laboratory (NETL) approved adjustments made to the campaign long-term hours during BP4. The CCS was constructed in modular skids. Two solvent campaigns were initially conducted; the first with a 30 wt% monoethanolamine (MEA) as a baseline, and the second with the Hitachi H3-1 advanced solvent. Additional tests were performed with two advanced solvents including CAER and Proprietary Solvent C. Short-period testing with a higher concentration of 40 wt% MEA was conducted to evaluate the potential saving with high alkalinity. From the various solvent campaigns, unique aspects of the UK CAER CCS technology, as well as its flexibility and versatility were experimentally validated and demonstrated. With respect to solvent evaluation efforts in identifying candidates with significant operational and capital cost savings potential, performance of solvents were evaluated to determine the energy requirements for regeneration; environmental impacts from secondary emissions and degradation products; degradation rates, solvent make-up rates and stability. The assessments were done from parametric tests that determined optimum operating conditions for the individual solvents to maximize process efficiency and minimize the parasitic load of the power plant, and from long term campaigns (1000 hours for 30 wt% MEA and 1000 hours for H3-1) which collectively informed the techno-economic analyses (TEA) of the process. The long term campaigns included corrosion studies which used three types of metal coupons in different sections of the process: (absorber, primary stripper, lean carbon-loaded and rich carbon loaded flow streams in process) to mimic heat and flow dynamics process equipment were exposed to. The estimated corrosion rates were used to elucidate corrosion mechanisms and to further guide process material selection for potential capital cost savings.

gas separation↗

Pulsed Neutron Capture for Monitoring CO 2 Storage with Enhanced Oil Recovery in Northern Michigan

The Midwest Regional Carbon Sequestration Partnership (MRCSP) was founded in 2003 as part of the U.S. Department of Energy’s (DOE’s) Regional Carbon Sequestration Partnership initiative. Since its founding, MRCSP has made significant strides toward making CCUS a viable option for states in the region. The public/private consortium, funded through the DOE Regional Carbon Sequestration Initiative, brings together nearly 40 industry partners and 10 states. Battelle, as the project lead, oversees research, development and operations and coordinates activities among the partners. The incremental, phased approach has built a valuable knowledge base for the industry and paved the way for commercial-scale adoption of CCUS technologies. From 2008 to 2020, MRCSP Phase III focused on the development of large-scale injection projects. This report is part of a series of reports prepared under the Midwestern Regional Carbon Sequestration Partnership (MRCSP) Phase III (Development Phase). These reports summarize and detail the findings of the work conducted under the Phase III project. Pulsed neutron capture (PNC) logging has been used as part of the MRCSP monitoring of CO 2 injection and storage during assessment of enhanced oil recovery (EOR) in several Northern Niagara Pinnacle Reef Trend (NNPRT) reefs in Michigan. This technique and data processing cost less than traditional fluid sampling and presents a low risk to well operations by utilizing through-tubing logging capabilities. Additionally, monitoring CO 2 migration and break-through can be conducted from a single monitoring well in the reservoir. A total of four reefs were selected for these studies to monitor CO 2 migration and to test the viability and effectiveness of the PNC technology for saturation monitoring in a low porosity and highly diverse lithology environment. This study provides assessment of the technology and recommendations for utilization of saturation analysis.

01 COAL, LIGNITE, AND PEAT↗

Probabilistic Assessment and Uncertainty Analysis of CO2 Storage Capacity of the Morrow B Sandstone—Farnsworth Field Unit

This paper presents probabilistic methods to estimate the quantity of carbon dioxide (CO2) that can be stored in a mature oil reservoir and analyzes the uncertainties associated with the estimation. This work uses data from the Farnsworth Field Unit (FWU), Ochiltree County, Texas, which is currently undergoing a tertiary recovery process. The input parameters are determined from seismic, core, and fluid analyses. The results of the estimation of the CO2 storage capacity of the reservoir are presented with both expectation curve and log probability plot. The expectation curve provides a range of possible outcomes such as the P90, P50, and P10. The deterministic value is calculated as the statistical mean of the storage capacity. The coefficient of variation and the uncertainty index, P10/P90, is used to analyze the overall uncertainty of the estimations. A relative impact plot is developed to analyze the sensitivity of the input parameters towards the total uncertainty and compared with Monte Carlo. In comparison to the Monte Carlo method, the results are practically the same. The probabilistic technique presented in this paper can be applied in different geological settings as well as other engineering applications.

03 NATURAL GAS↗

Tracing and Forecasting Metabolic Indices of Cancer Patients Using Patient-Specific Deep Learning Models

We develop a patient-specific dynamical system model from the time series data of the cancer patient’s metabolic panel taken during the period of cancer treatment and recovery. The model consists of a pair of stacked long short-term memory (LSTM) recurrent neural networks and a fully connected neural network in each unit. It is intended to be used by physicians to trace back and look forward at the patient’s metabolic indices, to identify potential adverse events, and to make short-term predictions. When the model is used in making short-term predictions, the relative error in every index is less than 10% in the L ∞ norm and less than 6.3% in the L 1 norm in the validation process. Once a master model is built, the patient-specific model can be calibrated through transfer learning. As an example, we obtain patient-specific models for four more cancer patients through transfer learning, which all exhibit reduced training time and a comparable level of accuracy. This study demonstrates that this modeling approach is reliable and can deliver clinically acceptable physiological models for tracking and forecasting patients’ metabolic indices.

60 APPLIED LIFE SCIENCES↗

PtychoShelves , a versatile high-level framework for high-performance analysis of ptychographic data

Over the past decade, ptychography has been proven to be a robust tool for non-destructive high-resolution quantitative electron, X-ray and optical microscopy. It allows for quantitative reconstruction of the specimen's transmissivity, as well as recovery of the illuminating wavefront. Additionally, various algorithms have been developed to account for systematic errors and improved convergence. With fast ptychographic microscopes and more advanced algorithms, both the complexity of the reconstruction task and the data volume increase significantly. PtychoShelves is a software package which combines high-level modularity for easy and fast changes to the data-processing pipeline, and high-performance computing on CPUs and GPUs.

97 MATHEMATICS AND COMPUTING↗

Modelling of Wastewater Heat Recovery Heat Pump Systems

Wastewater heat recovery is currently an underutilized technology that could be part of solving the climate crisis. A large portion of the heat that leaves a building in the form of wastewater is potentially recoverable for pre-heating domestic hot water or other service water systems. While there are several different approaches to wastewater heat recovery, this project focused on creating detailed, integrated building models for wastewater heat recovery heat pump systems. EnergyPlus models were developed featuring inputs and assumptions corresponding to manufacturers’ specifications, performance lab test data and feedback from engineering consultants. EnergyPlus’s supervisory control Energy Management System objects were heavily relied upon to overcome modelling challenges. The developed EnergyPlus model was integrated into U.S. Department of Energy New Construction Reference Building models for various climate zones and building types to assess potential energy use, energy cost and greenhouse gas emission reductions.

32 ENERGY CONSERVATION, CONSUMPTION, AND UTILIZATI↗

Enhanced Component Performance Study: Emergency Diesel Generators 1998–2018

This report presents an enhanced performance evaluation of emergency diesel generators (EDGs) at U.S. commercial nuclear power plants. This report evaluates component performance over time using (1) Institute of Nuclear Power Operations (INPO) Consolidated Events Database (ICES) data from 1998 through 2018 and (2) maintenance unavailability (UA) performance data from Mitigating Systems Performance Index (MSPI) Basis Document data from 2002 through 2018. The objective is to show estimates of current failure probabilities and rates related to EDGs, trend these data on an annual basis, determine if the current data are consistent with the probability distributions currently recommended for use in NRC probabilistic risk assessments, show how the reliability data differ for different EDG manufacturers and for EDGs with different ratings; and summarize the subcomponents, causes, detection methods, and recovery associated with each EDG failure mode. Engineering analyses were performed with respect to time period and failure mode without regard to the actual number of EDGs at each plant. The factors analyzed are: sub-component, failure cause, detection method, recovery, manufacturer, and EDG rating. A statistically significant increasing trend was identified in the frequency of FTLR demands for emergency power system (EPS) and high pressure core spray (HPCS) EDGs and a statistically significant decreasing trend was identified in the frequency of run > 1H hours for EPS and HPCS EDGs.

99 GENERAL AND MISCELLANEOUS↗

Time-Lapse Integration at FWU: Fluids, Rock Physics, Numerical Model Integration, and Field Data Comparison

We present the current status of time-lapse seismic integration at the Farnsworth (FWU) CO2 WAG (water-alternating-gas) EOR (Enhanced Oil Recovery) project at Ochiltree County, northwest Texas. As a potential carbon sequestration mechanism, CO2 WAG projects will be subject to some degree of monitoring and verification, either as a regulatory requirement or to qualify for economic incentives. In order to evaluate the viability of time-lapse seismic as a monitoring method the Southwest Partnership (SWP) has conducted time-lapse seismic monitoring at FWU using the 3D Vertical Seismic Profiling (VSP) method. The efficacy of seismic time-lapse depends on a number of key factors, which vary widely from one application to another. Most important among these are the thermophysical properties of the original fluid in place and the displacing fluid, followed by the petrophysical properties of the rock matrix, which together determine the effective elastic properties of the rock fluid system. We present systematic analysis of fluid thermodynamics and resulting thermophysical properties, petrophysics and rock frame elastic properties, and elastic property modeling through fluid substitution using data collected at FWU. These analyses will be framed in realistic scenarios presented by the FWU CO2 WAG development. The resulting fluid/rock physics models will be applied to output from the calibrated FWU compositional reservoir simulation model to forward model the time-lapse seismic response. Modeled results are compared with field time-lapse seismic measurements and strategies for numerical model feedback/update are discussed. While mechanical effects are neglected in the work presented here, complementary parallel studies are underway in which laboratory measurements are introduced to introduce stress dependence of matrix elastic moduli.

4D↗

Evaluation of “Tight Oil” Well Performance and Completion Practices in the Powder River Basin - “Time Slice” Analysis

The objective of this paper is to assess how well completion practices and well performance have evolved over time (“time slices”) in the tight sands and shales of the Powder River Basin (PRB). This information can provide a foundation for helping operators define more effective well completion practices and thus optimize well performance in an emerging “tight oil” basin. To start, the authors assembled a “database” containing well completion practices, production data, and geologic information for more than 800 horizontal (Hz) wells targeting three “tight oil” formations -- Turner, Frontier, and Mowry--placed on production in the past dozen years. To control for the impact of geologic and reservoir properties on well performance, the authors defined 12 geologically distinct areas (“partitions”) for the Turner, Frontier, and Mowry Shale in the Powder River Basin (4 partitions in each formation). This paper discusses the methodology for establishing “time slices” for each partition within each of the three “tight oil” formations, including (1) taking out, to the extent practical, the effects of geology by partitioning the three “tight oil” formations based on their geologic parameters; (2) using type curves and estimated ultimate recoveries (EURs) to establish a reliable measure of well performance; and (3) rigorously inspecting the production and well completion data to assure a quality dataset. Partition #2, a high thermal maturity area of the Frontier Sandstone in the western Powder River Basin, helps illustrate the results of the study. Using a dataset of 55 Hz wells, the study found that well performance has steadily improved, with oil EURs increasing from 180 MBbl in 2012-13 to 290 MBbl in 2018-19. Much of this improvement was due to the use of longer Hz laterals, increasing notably from 3,765 ft in 2012-13 to 10,260 ft in 2018-19. More intensive completion practices contributed, as well. For example, the number of frac stages more than doubled, from 17 to 35, and proppant concentrations increased from 1,060 lbs/ft to 1,320 lbs/ft. Finally, the data show diminishing returns to longer laterals and more intensive completion practices. For example, the key performance measure of oil EUR per 1,000 ft of lateral is decreasing. For 2012-13, Hz wells recovered 50 MBbl of oil per 1,000 ft of lateral while the more recent 2018-19 Hz wells only provide 30 MBbl of oil per 1,000 ft of lateral. Considerable insight can be gained by using “time slices” and geologic partitioning to better understand the relationship between changes in well drilling and completion practices and changes in well performance in emerging “tight oil” plays. The results from this study can also serve as a foundation for subsequent, more intense efforts involving data analytics for defining more optimum well completion practices targeting specified geologic settings and formations.

02 PETROLEUM↗

Accelerated Assessment of Critical Infrastructure in Aiding Recovery Efforts During Natural and Human-made Disaster

Relief and recovery from disasters (both natural and human-made) require a coordinated approach across several federal and state government agencies. In order to achieve optimal resource allocation and deployment of first responders, accurate and timely assessment of the impact and extent of destruction are the cornerstones to any recovery effort. Ideally, this knowledge should be gathered and shared within the first 0-24 hours (termed as "Acute Phase" by the U.S. CDC guideline) for informed decision-making. But achieving this poses significant challenges for the data collection and data harmonization processes, particularly when voluminous data are being generated from diverse and distributed sources during the disaster responses. To this end, this work developed a scalable and efficient workflow to dynamically collect and harmonize crowd-sourced geographic multi-modal data, and then assess critical infrastructure (CI) damaged during disaster events. We demonstrate the application of our framework with two real-world experiences in addressing post-disaster recovery efforts - for the Bahamas (Natural - due to Hurricane Dorian, 2019) and Beirut (Human-made - due to explosion caused by the ammonium nitrate stored in a warehouse, 2020). We have illustrated that a coordinated effort is needed for planning as well as for execution to achieve informed decision making.

Thakur, Gautam Malviya↗

NETL Coal Energy Atlas: A Collection of Coal/Energy Related Maps

The NETL Coal Energy Atlas contains a comprehensive collection of coal and energy-related maps and graphics curated by the National Energy Technology Laboratory (NETL) Systems Analysis group. It serves as a living document providing an overview of the U.S. coal and energy sectors. The volume is structurally organized into six key thematic areas. Ultimately, the atlas functions as a modular baseline for data integration, allowing researchers to drill down into specific regional locations or customize geographic base layers for advanced systems analysis.

bituminous coal↗

Entanglement wedge reconstruction using the Petz map

At the heart of recent progress in AdS/CFT is the question of subregion duality, or entanglement wedge reconstruction: which part(s) of the boundary CFT are dual to a given subregion of the bulk? This question can be answered by appealing to the quantum error correcting properties of holography, and it was recently shown that robust bulk (entanglement wedge) reconstruction can be achieved using a universal recovery channel known as the twirled Petz map. In short, one can use the twirled Petz map to recover bulk data from a subset of the boundary. However, this map involves an averaging procedure over bulk and boundary modular time, and hence it can be somewhat intractable to evaluate in practice. We show that a much simpler channel, the Petz map, is sufficient for entanglement wedge reconstruction for any code space of fixed finite dimension – no twirling is required. Moreover, the error in the reconstruction will always be non-perturbatively small. From a quantum information perspective, we prove a general theorem extending the use of the Petz map as a general-purpose recovery channel to subsystem and operator algebra quantum error correction.

71 CLASSICAL AND QUANTUM MECHANICS, GENERAL PHYSIC↗

Data-driven simultaneous process optimization and adsorbent selection for vacuum pressure swing adsorption

Technologies for post-combustion carbon capture are essential for the reduction of greenhouse gas emissions to the atmosphere. However, they are still associated with high costs and energy consumption. Intensified processes for carbon capture have the potential to overcome these challenges due to their higher efficiency, lower capital cost, and increased operational flexibility. Here, this work investigates simultaneous optimization of process conditions and adsorbent selection for a modular Vacuum Pressure-Swing Adsorption system designed for CO 2 capture. Both surrogate-based Nonlinear Programming and Mixed-Integer Nonlinear Programming approaches are applied and compared in terms of computational efficiency and solution accuracy. Moreover, process performance results are examined by applying several data analytics techniques to gain insights into the material-process correlations. Data-driven classifiers and neural networks can accurately predict whether a material is likely to satisfy purity, recovery, and energy constraints when operated at optimal process conditions.

37 INORGANIC, ORGANIC, PHYSICAL, AND ANALYTICAL CH↗

Position-Enhanced Gradient Attack (PEGA) on Medical Language Models

Federated Learning (FL) enables collaborative training of language models on sensitive clinical notes without sharing the data. However, this paradigm is vulnerable to gradient inversion attacks that can reconstruct private data from shared gradients. We find that state-of-the-art attacks are less effective in the medical domain, failing to overcome the unique challenges posed by its specialized vocabulary and unstructured format. To address this, we introduce the Position-Enhanced Gradient Attack (PEGA), a novel attack that makes gradients position-aware by optimizing token and position embeddings simultaneously. PEGA employs two key innovations: a periodic sorting of positional embeddings to resolve token order ambiguity and a late-stage embedding replacement strategy to correct hard-to-recover critical tokens. To evaluate the leakage of sensitive data more directly, we also propose the Unified PHI-Recall (UPHI), a new metric measuring the recovery of Protected Health Information. Experiments on the MIMIC-III dataset show that PEGA significantly outperforms leading attacks like TAG and LAMP, particularly in its ability to reconstruct identifiable patient information, exposing a more severe and nuanced privacy risk in federated medical NLP.

Xu, Nuo [University of Minnesota]↗

Observations and Modeling of Fiber Optic Strain on Hydraulic Fracture Height Growth in Hydraulic Fracturing Test Site 2 (HFTS-2)

Summary Understanding fracture height growth can be of great significance to optimizing field development and improving recovery. The Hydraulic Fracturing Test Site 2 (HFTS-2) has provided a unique opportunity and an advanced data set to allow us to observe and understand fracture geometries rigorously. Low-frequency distributed acoustic sensing (LF-DAS) data from a vertical well in HFTS-2 showed three key observations: (i) excessive upward height growth (>1,000 ft) and limited downward growth of the hydraulic fractures during pumping, (ii) considerable additional upward fracture height growth (~300 ft) after well shut in, and (iii) very complex LF-DAS strain rate patterns for a small fiber-to-stage offset. Advanced geomechanical modeling was performed to simulate the hydraulic fracture propagation and the resulting strain responses in the vertical direction. The modeling results demonstrated asymmetric upward and downward fracture height growths as observed in HFTS-2 with a similar upward height growth rate. Simulated waterfall plots of vertical strain rate showed distinct patterns for different fiber-to-fracture distances. The upward-growing fracture tip can be clearly identified by the interfaces between compressing and extending zones. It was also found that the complex strain rate patterns observed in HFTS-2 for small fiber-stage offsets were not caused by the mechanical layering but possibly result from the simultaneous propagation of multiple hydraulic fractures at different rates. The simulation results improved the understating of the HFTS-2 LF-DAS data, and the simulated strain rate patterns could also serve as templates for fracture height interpretation from LF-DAS data in future.

Engineering↗

Building the Foundation for Assessing GOM Offshore CO 2 EOR and CO 2 Storage [Slides]

This PowerPoint Presentation was used in a seminar given to headquarters personnel as well as other stakeholders. The seminar took place on August 7, 2020. The presentation introduces three offshore oil field case studies: Cognac, Petronius, and Horn Mountain. The NETL/ARI Gulf of Mexico (GOM) offshore large oil fields data base provides a strong foundation for the upcoming offshore GOM CO 2 storage and enhanced oil recovery (EOR) assessment. The three Case Studies show that significant volumes of CO 2 can be securely stored in the offshore GOM and that notable volumes of addition oil can be recovered from this area with CO 2 EOR. The Case Studies also show that the CO 2 Prophet Model can serve as an excellent assessment tool. The “next steps” include building the cost and economics models for offshore CO 2 transportation and particularly for conducting seafloor CO 2 EOR and CO 2 storage.

02 PETROLEUM↗