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NASA NTRS2003

Evaluation of a Dispatcher's Route Optimization Decision Aid to Avoid Aviation Weather Hazards

This document describes the results and analysis of the formal evaluation plan for the Honeywell software tool developed under the NASA AWIN (Aviation Weather Information) 'Weather Avoidance using Route Optimization as a Decision Aid' project. The software tool aims to provide airline dispatchers with a decision aid for selecting optimal routes that avoid weather and other hazards. This evaluation compares and contrasts route selection performance with the AWIN tool to that of subjects using a more traditional dispatcher environment. The evaluation assesses gains in safety, in fuel efficiency of planned routes, and in time efficiency in the pre-flight dispatch process through the use of the AWIN decision aid. In addition, we are interested in how this AWIN tool affects constructs that can be related to performance. The construct of Situation Awareness (SA), workload, trust in an information system, and operator acceptance are assessed using established scales, where these exist, as well as through the evaluation of questionnaire responses and subject comments. The intention of the experiment is to set up a simulated operations area for the dispatchers to work in. They will be given scenarios in which they are presented with stored company routes for a particular city-pair and aircraft type. A diverse set of external weather information sources is represented by a stand-alone display (MOCK), containing the actual historical weather data typically used by dispatchers. There is also the possibility of presenting selected weather data on the route visualization tool. The company routes have not been modified to avoid the weather except in the case of one additional route generated by the Honeywell prototype flight planning system. The dispatcher will be required to choose the most appropriate and efficient flight plan route in the displayed weather conditions. The route may be modified manually or may be chosen from those automatically displayed.

Dorneich, Michael C.↗

NASA NTRS2003

The Aeronautical Data Link: Decision Framework for Architecture Analysis

A decision analytic approach that develops optimal data link architecture configuration and behavior to meet multiple conflicting objectives of concurrent and different airspace operations functions has previously been developed. The approach, premised on a formal taxonomic classification that correlates data link performance with operations requirements, information requirements, and implementing technologies, provides a coherent methodology for data link architectural analysis from top-down and bottom-up perspectives. This paper follows the previous research by providing more specific approaches for mapping and transitioning between the lower levels of the decision framework. The goal of the architectural analysis methodology is to assess the impact of specific architecture configurations and behaviors on the efficiency, capacity, and safety of operations. This necessarily involves understanding the various capabilities, system level performance issues and performance and interface concepts related to the conceptual purpose of the architecture and to the underlying data link technologies. Efficient and goal-directed data link architectural network configuration is conditioned on quantifying the risks and uncertainties associated with complex structural interface decisions. Deterministic and stochastic optimal design approaches will be discussed that maximize the effectiveness of architectural designs.

Morris, A. Terry↗

NASA NTRS2004

Scaling Up Decision Theoretic Planning to Planetary Rover Problems

Because of communication limits, planetary rovers must operate autonomously during consequent durations. The ability to plan under uncertainty is one of the main components of autonomy. Previous approaches to planning under uncertainty in NASA applications are not able to address the challenges of future missions, because of several apparent limits. On another side, decision theory provides a solid principle framework for reasoning about uncertainty and rewards. Unfortunately, there are several obstacles to a direct application of decision-theoretic techniques to the rover domain. This paper focuses on the issues of structure and concurrency, and continuous state variables. We describes two techniques currently under development that address specifically these issues and allow scaling-up decision theoretic solution techniques to planetary rover planning problems involving a small number of goals.

Meuleau, Nicolas↗

NASA NTRS2005

Tools of the Future: How Decision Tree Analysis Will Impact Mission Planning

The universe is infinitely complex; however, the human mind has a finite capacity. The multitude of possible variables, metrics, and procedures in mission planning are far too many to address exhaustively. This is unfortunate because, in general, considering more possibilities leads to more accurate and more powerful results. To compensate, we can get more insightful results by employing our greatest tool, the computer. The power of the computer will be utilized through a technology that considers every possibility, decision tree analysis. Although decision trees have been used in many other fields, this is innovative for space mission planning. Because this is a new strategy, no existing software is able to completely accommodate all of the requirements. This was determined through extensive research and testing of current technologies. It was necessary to create original software, for which a short-term model was finished this summer. The model was built into Microsoft Excel to take advantage of the familiar graphical interface for user input, computation, and viewing output. Macros were written to automate the process of tree construction, optimization, and presentation. The results are useful and promising. If this tool is successfully implemented in mission planning, our reliance on old-fashioned heuristics, an error-prone shortcut for handling complexity, will be reduced. The computer algorithms involved in decision trees will revolutionize mission planning. The planning will be faster and smarter, leading to optimized missions with the potential for more valuable data.

Otterstatter, Matthew R.↗

NASA NTRS2006

Verification and Validation of NASA-Supported Enhancements to PECAD's Decision Support Tools

The NASA Applied Sciences Directorate (ASD), part of the Earth-Sun System Division of NASA's Science Mission Directorate, has partnered with the U.S. Department of Agriculture (USDA) to enhance decision support in the area of agricultural efficiency-an application of national importance. The ASD integrated the results of NASA Earth science research into USDA decision support tools employed by the USDA Foreign Agricultural Service (FAS) Production Estimates and Crop Assessment Division (PECAD), which supports national decision making by gathering, analyzing, and disseminating global crop intelligence. Verification and validation of the following enhancements are summarized: 1) Near-real-time Moderate Resolution Imaging Spectroradiometer (MODIS) products through PECAD's MODIS Image Gallery; 2) MODIS Normalized Difference Vegetation Index (NDVI) time series data through the USDA-FAS MODIS NDVI Database; and 3) Jason-1 and TOPEX/Poseidon lake level estimates through PECAD's Global Reservoir and Lake Monitor. Where possible, each enhanced product was characterized for accuracy, timeliness, and coverage, and the characterized performance was compared to PECAD operational requirements. The MODIS Image Gallery and the GRLM are more mature and have achieved a semi-operational status, whereas the USDA-FAS MODIS NDVI Database is still evolving and should be considered

McKellipo, Rodney↗

NASA NTRS2005

The Effects of Safety Information on Aeronautical Decision Making

The importance of aeronautical decision making (ADM) has been considered one of the most critical issues of flight education for future professional pilots. Researchers have suggested that a safety information system based on information from incidents and near misses is an important tool to improve the intelligence and readiness of pilots. This paper describes a study that examines the effect of safety information on aeronautical decision making for students in a collegiate flight program. Data was collected from study participants who were exposed to periodic information about local aircraft malfunctions. Participants were then evaluated using a flight simulator profile and a pen and pencil test of situational judgment. Findings suggest that regular access to the described safety information program significantly improves decision making of student pilots.

Lee, Jang R.↗

NASA NTRS2005

Invasive Species Forecasting System: A Decision Support Tool for the U.S. Geological Survey: FY 2005 Benchmarking Report v.1.6

The National Institute of Invasive Species Science (NIISS), through collaboration with NASA's Goddard Space Flight Center (GSFC), recently began incorporating NASA observations and predictive modeling tools to fulfill its mission. These enhancements, labeled collectively as the Invasive Species Forecasting System (ISFS), are now in place in the NIISS in their initial state (V1.0). The ISFS is the primary decision support tool of the NIISS for the management and control of invasive species on Department of Interior and adjacent lands. The ISFS is the backbone for a unique information services line-of-business for the NIISS, and it provides the means for delivering advanced decision support capabilities to a wide range of management applications. This report describes the operational characteristics of the ISFS, a decision support tool of the United States Geological Survey (USGS). Recent enhancements to the performance of the ISFS, attained through the integration of observations, models, and systems engineering from the NASA are benchmarked; i.e., described quantitatively and evaluated in relation to the performance of the USGS system before incorporation of the NASA enhancements. This report benchmarks Version 1.0 of the ISFS.

Stohlgren, Tom↗

NASA NTRS2007

All Source Solution Decision Support Products Created for Stennis Space Center in Response to Hurricane Katrina

In the aftermath of Hurricane Katrina and in response to the needs of SSC (Stennis Space Center), NASA required the generation of decision support products with a broad range of geospatial inputs. Applying a systems engineering approach, the NASA ARTPO (Applied Research and Technology Project Office) at SSC evaluated the Center's requirements and source data quality. ARTPO identified data and information products that had the potential to meet decision-making requirements; included were remotely sensed data ranging from high-spatial-resolution aerial images through high-temporal-resolution MODIS (Moderate Resolution Imaging Spectroradiometer) products. Geospatial products, such as FEMA's (Federal Emergency Management Agency's) Advisory Base Flood Elevations, were also relevant. Where possible, ARTPO applied SSC calibration/validation expertise to both clarify the quality of various data source options and to validate that the inputs that were finally chosen met SSC requirements. ARTPO integrated various information sources into multiple decision support products, including two maps: Hurricane Katrina Inundation Effects at Stennis Space Center (highlighting surge risk posture) and Vegetation Change In and Around Stennis Space Center: Katrina and Beyond (highlighting fire risk posture).

Ross, Kenton W.↗

NASA NTRS2008

NASA Earth Observations Informing Renewable Energy Management and Policy Decision Making

The NASA Applied Sciences Program partners with domestic and international governmental organizations, universities, and private entities to improve their decisions and assessments. These improvements are enabled by using the knowledge generated from research resulting from spacecraft observations and model predictions conducted by NASA and providing these as inputs to the decision support and scenario assessment tools used by partner organizations. The Program is divided into eight societal benefit areas, aligned in general with the Global Earth Observation System of Systems (GEOSS) themes. The Climate Application of the Applied Sciences Program has as one of its focuses, efforts to provide for improved decisions and assessments in the areas of renewable energy technologies, energy efficiency, and climate change impacts. The goals of the Applied Sciences Program are aligned with national initiatives such as the U.S. Climate Change Science and Technology Programs and with those of international organizations including the Group on Earth Observations (GEO) and the Committee on Earth Observation Satellites (CEOS). Activities within the Program are funded principally through proposals submitted in response to annual solicitations and reviewed by peers.

Eckman, Richard S.↗

NASA NTRS2010

Risk-Informed Decision Making: Application to Technology Development Alternative Selection

NASA NPR 8000.4A, Agency Risk Management Procedural Requirements, defines risk management in terms of two complementary processes: Risk-informed Decision Making (RIDM) and Continuous Risk Management (CRM). The RIDM process is used to inform decision making by emphasizing proper use of risk analysis to make decisions that impact all mission execution domains (e.g., safety, technical, cost, and schedule) for program/projects and mission support organizations. The RIDM process supports the selection of an alternative prior to program commitment. The CRM process is used to manage risk associated with the implementation of the selected alternative. The two processes work together to foster proactive risk management at NASA. The Office of Safety and Mission Assurance at NASA Headquarters has developed a technical handbook to provide guidance for implementing the RIDM process in the context of NASA risk management and systems engineering. This paper summarizes the key concepts and procedures of the RIDM process as presented in the handbook, and also illustrates how the RIDM process can be applied to the selection of technology investments as NASA's new technology development programs are initiated.

Dezfuli, Homayoon↗

NASA NTRS2010

MODIS Snow Cover Mapping Decision Tree Technique: Snow and Cloud Discrimination

Accurate mapping of snow cover continues to challenge cryospheric scientists and modelers. The Moderate-Resolution Imaging Spectroradiometer (MODIS) snow data products have been used since 2000 by many investigators to map and monitor snow cover extent for various applications. Users have reported on the utility of the products and also on problems encountered. Three problems or hindrances in the use of the MODIS snow data products that have been reported in the literature are: cloud obscuration, snow/cloud confusion, and snow omission errors in thin or sparse snow cover conditions. Implementation of the MODIS snow algorithm in a decision tree technique using surface reflectance input to mitigate those problems is being investigated. The objective of this work is to use a decision tree structure for the snow algorithm. This should alleviate snow/cloud confusion and omission errors and provide a snow map with classes that convey information on how snow was detected, e.g. snow under clear sky, snow tinder cloud, to enable users' flexibility in interpreting and deriving a snow map. Results of a snow cover decision tree algorithm are compared to the standard MODIS snow map and found to exhibit improved ability to alleviate snow/cloud confusion in some situations allowing up to about 5% increase in mapped snow cover extent, thus accuracy, in some scenes.

Riggs, George A.↗

NASA NTRS2011

Use of Probabilistic Risk Assessment in Shuttle Decision Making Process

This slide presentation reviews the use of Probabilistic Risk Assessment (PRA) to assist in the decision making for the shuttle design and operation. Probabilistic Risk Assessment (PRA) is a comprehensive, structured, and disciplined approach to identifying and analyzing risk in complex systems and/or processes that seeks answers to three basic questions: (i.e., what can go wrong? what is the likelihood of these occurring? and what are the consequences that could result if these occur?) The purpose of the Shuttle PRA (SPRA) is to provide a useful risk management tool for the Space Shuttle Program (SSP) to identify strengths and possible weaknesses in the Shuttle design and operation. SPRA was initially developed to support upgrade decisions, but has evolved into a tool that supports Flight Readiness Reviews (FRR) and near real-time flight decisions. Examples of the use of PRA for the shuttle are reviewed.

Boyer, Roger L.↗

NASA NTRS2011

Pilot/Controller Coordinated Decision Making in the Next Generation Air Transportation System

Introduction: NextGen technologies promise to provide considerable benefits in terms of enhancing operations and improving safety. However, there needs to be a thorough human factors evaluation of the way these systems will change the way in which pilot and controllers share information. The likely impact of these new technologies on pilot/controller coordinated decision making is considered in this paper using the "operational, informational and evaluative disconnect" framework. Method: Five participant focus groups were held. Participants were four experts in human factors, between x and x research students and a technical expert. The participant focus group evaluated five key NextGen technologies to identify issues that made different disconnects more or less likely. Results: Issues that were identified were: Decision Making will not necessarily improve because pilots and controllers possess the same information; Having a common information source does not mean pilots and controllers are looking at the same information; High levels of automation may lead to disconnects between the technology and pilots/controllers; Common information sources may become the definitive source for information; Overconfidence in the automation may lead to situations where appropriate breakdowns are not initiated. Discussion: The issues that were identified lead to recommendations that need to be considered in the development of NextGen technologies. The current state of development of these technologies provides a good opportunity to utilize recommendations at an early stage so that NextGen technologies do not lead to difficulties in resolving breakdowns in coordinated decision making.

Bearman, Chris↗

NASA NTRS2012

Evaluation of Algorithms for a Miles-in-Trail Decision Support Tool

Four machine learning algorithms were prototyped and evaluated for use in a proposed decision support tool that would assist air traffic managers as they set Miles-in-Trail restrictions. The tool would display probabilities that each possible Miles-in-Trail value should be used in a given situation. The algorithms were evaluated with an expected Miles-in-Trail cost that assumes traffic managers set restrictions based on the tool-suggested probabilities. Basic Support Vector Machine, random forest, and decision tree algorithms were evaluated, as was a softmax regression algorithm that was modified to explicitly reduce the expected Miles-in-Trail cost. The algorithms were evaluated with data from the summer of 2011 for air traffic flows bound to the Newark Liberty International Airport (EWR) over the ARD, PENNS, and SHAFF fixes. The algorithms were provided with 18 input features that describe the weather at EWR, the runway configuration at EWR, the scheduled traffic demand at EWR and the fixes, and other traffic management initiatives in place at EWR. Features describing other traffic management initiatives at EWR and the weather at EWR achieved relatively high information gain scores, indicating that they are the most useful for estimating Miles-in-Trail. In spite of a high variance or over-fitting problem, the decision tree algorithm achieved the lowest expected Miles-in-Trail costs when the algorithms were evaluated using 10-fold cross validation with the summer 2011 data for these air traffic flows.

Bloem, Michael↗

NASA NTRS2012

Using NASA Environmental Data to Enhance Public Health Decision Making

The Universities Space Research Association at the NASA Marshall Space Flight Center is collaborating with the University of Alabama at Birmingham (UAB) School of Public Health and the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention (CDC) to address issues of environmental health and enhance public health decision making by utilizing NASA remotely sensed data and products. The objectives of this collaboration are to develop high-quality spatial data sets of environmental variables, and deliver the data sets and associated analyses to local, state and federal end-user groups. These data can be linked spatially and temporally to public health data, such as mortality and disease morbidity, for further analysis and decision making. Three daily environmental data sets have been developed for the conterminous U.S. on different spatial resolutions for the time period 2003-2008: (1) spatial surfaces of estimated fine particulate matter (PM2.5) exposures on a 10-km grid utilizing the US Environmental Protection Agency (EPA) ground observations and NASA s MODerate-resolution Imaging Spectroradiometer (MODIS) data; (2) a 1-km grid of Land Surface Temperature (LST) using MODIS data; and (3) a 12-km grid of daily Solar Insolation (SI) and maximum and minimum air temperature using the North American Land Data Assimilation System (NLDAS) forcing data. These environmental data sets will be linked with public health data from the UAB REasons for Geographic And Racial Differences in Stroke (REGARDS) national cohort study to determine whether exposures to these environmental risk factors are related to cognitive decline and other health outcomes. These environmental datasets and public health linkage analyses will be made available to public health professionals, researchers and the general public through the CDC Wide-ranging Online Data for Epidemiologic Research (WONDER) system and through peer reviewed publications. To date, two of the data sets have been released to the public in CDC WONDER, Daily Air Temperature and Heat Index for years 1979-2010, and Daily Fine Particulate Matter (PM2.5) air quality measures for years 2003-2008. These data in CDC WONDER can be aggregated to the county-level, state-level, or regional-level as per users need and downloaded in tabular, graphical, and map formats. The summary statistical output are available to web and app developers via the WONDER Application Programming Interface (API). The linkage of these data with the CDC WONDER system provides a significant addition to CDC WONDER, allowing public health researchers and policy makers to better include environmental exposure data in the context of other health data available in CDC WONDER online system. It also substantially expands public access to NASA environmental data, making their use by a wide range of decision makers feasible.

Al-Hamdan, Mohammad↗

NASA NTRS2013

Test and Evaluation Metrics of Crew Decision-Making And Aircraft Attitude and Energy State Awareness

NASA has established a technical challenge, under the Aviation Safety Program, Vehicle Systems Safety Technologies project, to improve crew decision-making and response in complex situations. The specific objective of this challenge is to develop data and technologies which may increase a pilot's (crew's) ability to avoid, detect, and recover from adverse events that could otherwise result in accidents/incidents. Within this technical challenge, a cooperative industry-government research program has been established to develop innovative flight deck-based counter-measures that can improve the crew's ability to avoid, detect, mitigate, and recover from unsafe loss-of-aircraft state awareness - specifically, the loss of attitude awareness (i.e., Spatial Disorientation, SD) or the loss-of-energy state awareness (LESA). A critical component of this research is to develop specific and quantifiable metrics which identify decision-making and the decision-making influences during simulation and flight testing. This paper reviews existing metrics and methods for SD testing and criteria for establishing visual dominance. The development of Crew State Monitoring technologies - eye tracking and other psychophysiological - are also discussed as well as emerging new metrics for identifying channelized attention and excessive pilot workload, both of which have been shown to contribute to SD/LESA accidents or incidents.

Bailey, Randall E.↗

NASA NTRS2014

Providing Global Change Information for Decision-Making: Capturing and Presenting Provenance

Global change information demands access to data sources and well-documented provenance to provide evidence needed to build confidence in scientific conclusions and, in specific applications, to ensure the information's suitability for use in decision-making. A new generation of Web technology, the Semantic Web, provides tools for that purpose. The topic of global change covers changes in the global environment (including alterations in climate, land productivity, oceans or other water resources, atmospheric composition and or chemistry, and ecological systems) that may alter the capacity of the Earth to sustain life and support human systems. Data and findings associated with global change research are of great public, government, and academic concern and are used in policy and decision-making, which makes the provenance of global change information especially important. In addition, since different types of decisions benefit from different types of information, understanding how to capture and present the provenance of global change information is becoming more of an imperative in adaptive planning.

provenance tracking↗

NASA NTRS2014

A Formally-Verified Decision Procedure for Univariate Polynomial Computation Based on Sturm's Theorem

Sturm's Theorem is a well-known result in real algebraic geometry that provides a function that computes the number of roots of a univariate polynomial in a semiopen interval. This paper presents a formalization of this theorem in the PVS theorem prover, as well as a decision procedure that checks whether a polynomial is always positive, nonnegative, nonzero, negative, or nonpositive on any input interval. The soundness and completeness of the decision procedure is proven in PVS. The procedure and its correctness properties enable the implementation of a PVS strategy for automatically proving existential and universal univariate polynomial inequalities. Since the decision procedure is formally verified in PVS, the soundness of the strategy depends solely on the internal logic of PVS rather than on an external oracle. The procedure itself uses a combination of Sturm's Theorem, an interval bisection procedure, and the fact that a polynomial with exactly one root in a bounded interval is always nonnegative on that interval if and only if it is nonnegative at both endpoints.

Narkawicz, Anthony J.↗