Results for “design under uncertainty” — Page 19

NASA NTRS2016

Investigation of Non-Equilibrium Radiation for Earth Entry

For Earth re-entry at velocities between 8 and 11.5 km/s, the accuracy of NASA's computational uid dynamic and radiative simulations of non-equilibrium shock layer radiation is assessed through comparisons with measurements. These measurements were obtained in the NASA Ames Research Center's Electric Arc Shock Tube (EAST) facility. The experiments were aimed at measuring the spatially and spectrally resolved radiance at relevant entry conditions for both an approximate Earth atmosphere (79% N2 : 21% O2 by mole) as well as a more accurate composition featuring the trace species Ar and CO2 (78.08% N2 : 20.95% O2 : 0.04% CO2 : 0.93% Ar by mole). The experiments were configured to target a wide range of conditions, of which shots from 8 to 11.5 km/s at 0.2 Torr (26.7 Pa) are examined in this paper. The non-equilibrium component was chosen to be the focus of this study as it can account for a significant percentage of the emitted radiation for Earth re-entry, and more importantly, non-equilibrium has traditionally been assigned a large uncertainty for vehicle design. The main goals of this study are to present the shock tube data in the form of a non-equilibrium metric, evaluate the level of agreement between the experiment and simulations, identify key discrepancies and to examine critical aspects of modeling non-equilibrium radiating flows. Radiance pro les integrated over discreet wavelength regions, ranging from the Vacuum Ultra Violet (VUV) through to the Near Infra-Red (NIR), were compared in order to maximize both the spectral coverage and the number of experiments that could be used in the analysis. A previously defined non-equilibrium metric has been used to allow comparisons with several shots and reveal trends in the data. Overall, LAURA/HARA is shown to under-predict EAST by as much as 40% and over-predict by as much as 12% depending on the shock speed. DPLR/NEQAIR is shown to under-predict EAST by as much as 50% and over-predict by as much as 20% depending on the shock speed. The one standard deviation scatter in the EAST results was calculated to be 31%. An estimate for the upper bound of the absolute error in wall-directed heat flux was calculated. Below 9 km/s, where the relative difference is large, the absolute error in radiative heat flux due to non-equilibrium models is estimated to be less then 1 W/sq cm. At the highest shock speed of 11 km/s, the error in non-equilibrium is estimated to be less than 20 W/sq cm.

Shock Tube↗

NASA NTRS2019

initMIP-Antarctica: an Ice Sheet Model Initialization Experiment of ISMIP6

Ice sheet numerical modeling is an important tool to estimate the dynamic contribution of the Antarctic ice sheet to sea level rise over the coming centuries. The influence of initial conditions on ice sheet model simulations, however, is still unclear. To better understand this influence, an initial state intercomparison exercise (initMIP) has been developed to compare, evaluate, and improve initialization procedures and estimate their impact on century-scale simulations. initMIP is the first set of experiments of the Ice Sheet Model Intercomparison Project for CMIP6 (ISMIP6), which is the primary Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 6 (CMIP6) activity focusing on the Greenland and Antarctic ice sheets. Following initMIP-Greenland, initMIP-Antarctica has been designed to explore uncertainties associated with model initialization and spin-up and to evaluate the impact of changes in external forcings. Starting from the state of the Antarctic ice sheet at the end of the initialization procedure, three forward experiments are each run for 100 years: a control run, a run with a surface mass balance anomaly, and a run with a basal melting anomaly beneath floating ice. This study presents the results of initMIP-Antarctica from 25 simulations performed by 16 international modeling groups. The submitted results use different initial conditions and initialization methods, as well as ice flow model parameters and reference external forcings. We find a good agreement among model responses to the surface mass balance anomaly but large variations in responses to the basal melting anomaly. These variations can be attributed to differences in the extent of ice shelves and their upstream tributaries, the numerical treatment of grounding line, and the initial ocean conditions applied, suggesting that ongoing efforts to better represent ice shelves in continental-scale models should continue.

ice sheet model↗

NASA NTRSDate not supplied

Post-Flight EDL Entry Guidance for the Mars 2020 Mission

Like its predecessor Mars Science Laboratory, the Mars 2020 mission successfully utilized a derivative of the Apollo Entry Terminal Point Controller guidance algorithm, whereby bank angle controls range flown along a trajectory. The flight performance of this algorithm in conjunction with a range-trigger for parachute deploy delivered the Perseverance rover to 1.7 km from the expected touchdown location within an ellipse of 7.5 x 5.2 km. This miss distance is largely attributed to atmospheric and aerodynamic modeling uncertainties between the design and as-flown trajectory. This algorithm for guided entry continues to provide a solid basis for Mars missions to improve upon.

Guidance↗

DOE OSTI2023

Impacts of Dispatch Strategies and Forecast Errors on the Economics of Behind-the-Meter PV-Battery Systems

To assess the economic value of batteries in hybrid PV-battery systems, one must create a dispatch profile for the battery. Many analyses of battery value assume perfect forecasts of PV generation and load, determining an upper limit on the value of the battery. Prior work that accounts for forecast uncertainty often does so in the context of a single dispatch algorithm, which does not provide a baseline for comparison. Furthermore, when multiple dispatch algorithms are assessed with uncertainty, the benefits considered are for diesel generation in a microgrid, not retail rate savings. This work addresses the gaps in the literature by comparing the performance of both heuristic and optimal dispatch algorithms for retail rate savings under forecast uncertainty, and provides comparisons of the robustness of these algorithms and their associated estimates of economic value. We find that using a perfect forecast can overestimate the value of hybrid PV-battery systems between 1% and 8% compared to the reality of using a day-ahead forecast, depending on the dispatch algorithm used. Thus, accounting for forecast uncertainty in system design and analysis will significantly improve the accuracy of modeled system values.

batteries↗

DOE OSTI2023

Impacts of Dispatch Strategies and Forecast Errors on the Economics of Behind-the-Meter PV-Battery Systems: Preprint

To assess the economic value of batteries in hybrid PV-battery systems, one must create a dispatch profile for the battery. Many analyses of battery value assume perfect forecasts of PV generation and load, determining an upper limit on the value of the battery. Prior work that accounts for forecast uncertainty often does so in the context of a single dispatch algorithm, which does not provide a baseline for comparison. Furthermore, when multiple dispatch algorithms are assessed with uncertainty, the benefits considered are for diesel generation in a microgrid, not retail rate savings. This work addresses the gaps in the literature by comparing the performance of both heuristic and optimal dispatch algorithms for retail rate savings under forecast uncertainty, and provides comparisons of the robustness of these algorithms and their associated estimates of economic value. We find that using a perfect forecast can overestimate the value of hybrid PV-battery systems between 1% and 8% compared to the reality of using a day-ahead forecast, depending on the dispatch algorithm used. Thus, accounting for forecast uncertainty in system design and analysis will significantly improve the accuracy of modeled system values.

batteries↗

DOE OSTI2024

Dynamic Wind Loading on CSP Collectors Caused by Turbulent Wind Fluctuations: Insights from a 2-Year Field Campaign

Concentrating Solar Power (CSP) is a promising solar technology for electricity generation with thermal energy storage and with the additional benefit of industrial heat production. Wind loading on CSP collector structures, such as parabolic troughs or heliostats, is one of the primary drivers of their structural design costs. In particular, dynamic wind loading is a major source of uncertainty in the collector design process, which heavily relies on wind tunnel testing. In the field, the turbulent nature of the incoming wind creates fluctuating loads (support structure loads and resulting mirror deflections) on the collectors, with impacts on fatigue lifetime and optical performance. As is well known, wind tunnel tests cannot entirely reproduce the complex turbulent wind conditions typically observed at full-scale plants. To shed light on this topic, NREL initiated a field campaign at the operational Nevada Solar One (NSO) powerplant that uses parabolic troughs as solar collectors. The aim of the project is a detailed characterization of prevailing wind and turbulence conditions and resulting operational loads on parabolic troughs. We use the published 2-year dataset of high-resolution combined wind and structural loads measurements [1] to characterize the dynamic structural wind response. For quantifying dynamic wind loading, we apply the concept of admittance functions, which are spectral transfer functions that couple the turbulent wind to resulting structural loads (aerodynamic admittance), and to the structural response (mechanical admittance). In practice, aerodynamic admittance describes which turbulent eddy sizes are effective in creating structural loads. The mechanical admittance describes in which frequency ranges these loads are reinforced or dampened by the structure. While these functions are an established concept in civil engineering, their recent application to a single full-scale heliostat [2] proved their broader applicability to CSP collectors. Here, we present a characterization of admittance functions for full-scale parabolic trough collectors and show how wind characteristics (mean wind speed and direction, turbulent kinetic energy, turbulent length scales), the sun-tracking trough angle, and row position alter the admittance functions. Further, we study to which extent the admittance functions are universal for a specific trough geometry and how our findings compare to reported heliostat results. References [1] https://data.openei.org/submissions/5938. [2] Blume, K., Roger, M., and Pitz-Paal, R. 2023b. "Simplified analytical model to describe wind loads and wind-induced tracking deviations of heliostats." Solar Energy, 256, 96-109. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.solener.2023.03.055.

admittance functions↗

DOE OSTI2021

Impact of Dry Cooler Air-Side Performance on a sCO2 Power Cycle for a CSP Application

Uncertainty around the design and control of the supercritical CO2 power cycle must be reduced before this technology can be implemented for large-scale grid support. To better understand the day-to-day performance of an sCO2 cycle, off-design performance calculations must be included for all power block components, and performance assumptions must be removed. This study has expanded the modeled scope to include the air-side performance for the dry cooler and has incorporated discretized heat transfer calculations for both streams through the pre-cooler to better predict off-design performance. This study considered a recompression Brayton cycle in a concentrating solar power application. The cycle model utilized fixed sCO2 turbomachinery maps for the main compressor, recompressor, and expander operating to supply approximately 10 MW gross at the design point. Fixed vendor-supplied fan curves were used to calculate the air-side performance of the dry cooler. The primary heater was modeled considering both the sCO2 and heat transfer fluid streams. Off-design performance was predicted for an ambient temperature range of 0-55℃, a HTF temperature range of 705-735℃, and a HTF mass flow range of 50-105% of the design point value. To understand the importance of modeling the air-side performance, the cycle off-design performance was also calculated using a constant CO2 outlet temperature assumption and a constant approach temperature assumption for the dry cooler. Results show that using these assumptions can significantly alter the power output and cycle efficiency predictions.

14 SOLAR ENERGY↗

NASA NTRS2017

Options and Uncertainties in Planetary Defense: Mission Planning and Vehicle Design for Flexible Response

This paper is part of an integrated study by NASA and the NNSA to quantitatively understand the response timeframe should a threatening Earth-impacting near-Earth object (NEO) be identified. The two realistic responses considered are the use of a spacecraft functioning as either a kinetic impactor or a nuclear explosive carrier to deflect the approaching NEO. The choice depends on the NEO size and mass, the available response time prior to Earth impact, and the various uncertainties. Whenever practical, the kinetic impactor is the preferred approach, but various factors, such as large uncertainties or short available response time, reduce the kinetic impactor's suitability and, ultimately, eliminate its sufficiency. Herein we examine response time and the activities that occur between the time when an NEO is recognized as being a sufficient threat to require a deflection and the time when the deflection impulse is applied to the NEO. To use a kinetic impactor for successful deflection of an NEO, it is essential to minimize the reaction time and maximize the time available for the impulse delivered to the NEO by the kinetic impactor to integrate forward in time to the eventual deflection of the NEO away from Earth impact. To shorten the response time, we develop tools to survey the profile of needed spacecraft launches and the possible mission payloads. We further present a vehicle design capable of either serving as a kinetic impactor, or, if the need arises, serving as a system to transport a nuclear explosive to the NEO. These results are generated by analyzing a specific case study in which the simulated Earth-impacting NEO is modeled very closely after the real NEO known as 101955 Bennu (1999 RQ36). Bennu was selected for our case study in part because it is the best-studied of the known NEOs. It is also the destination of NASA's OSIRIS-REx sample return mission, which is, at the time of this writing, enroute to Bennu following a September 2016 launch.

characterization↗

NASA NTRS2017

Options and Uncertainties in Planetary Defense: Mission Planning and Vehicle Design for Flexible Response

This paper is part of an integrated study by NASA and the NNSA to quantitatively understand the response timeframe should a threatening Earth-impacting near-Earth object (NEO) be identified. The two realistic responses considered are the use of a spacecraft functioning as either a kinetic impactor or a nuclear explosive carrier to deflect the approaching NEO. The choice depends on the NEO size and mass, the available response time prior to Earth impact, and the various uncertainties. Whenever practical, the kinetic impactor is the preferred approach, but various factors, such as large uncertainties or short available response time, reduce the kinetic impactor's suitability and, ultimately, eliminate its sufficiency. Herein we examine response time and the activities that occur between the time when an NEO is recognized as being a sufficient threat to require a deflection and the time when the deflection impulse is applied to the NEO. To use a kinetic impactor for successful deflection of an NEO, it is essential to minimize the reaction time and maximize the time available for the impulse delivered to the NEO by the kinetic impactor to integrate forward in time to the eventual deflection of the NEO away from Earth impact. To shorten the response time, we develop tools to survey the profile of needed spacecraft launches and the possible mission payloads. We further present a vehicle design capable of either serving as a kinetic impactor, or, if the need arises, serving as a system to transport a nuclear explosive to the NEO. These results are generated by analyzing a specific case study in which the simulated Earth-impacting NEO is modeled very closely after the real NEO known as 101955 Bennu (1999 RQ36). Bennu was selected for our case study in part because it is the best-studied of the known NEOs. It is also the destination of NASA's OSIRIS-REx sample return mission, which is, at the time of this writing, enroute to Bennu following a September 2016 launch.

Brent W. Barbee↗

NASA NTRS1996

Validation of an Experimentally Derived Uncertainty Model

The results show that uncertainty models can be obtained directly from system identification data by using a minimum norm model validation approach. The error between the test data and an analytical nominal model is modeled as a combination of unstructured additive and structured input multiplicative uncertainty. Robust controllers which use the experimentally derived uncertainty model show significant stability and performance improvements over controllers designed with assumed ad hoc uncertainty levels. Use of the identified uncertainty model also allowed a strong correlation between design predictions and experimental results.

Lim, K. B.↗

NASA NTRS1972

Derivation of mission fluences from flux models: Propagation of uncertainties

The calculation of fluences from the flux models for spacecraft designers, and the propagation of uncertainties in the flux models to larger uncertainties in the final answer are discussed. Ionization and displacement damage in silicon, fluence, and a fluence of an equivalent energy are considered. Data in graph form are presented on stopping power and range curves for electrons and protons in silicon, relative electron and proton damage in silicon, and electron fluences expressed as 3 MeV equivalent and proton fluences expressed as 20 MeV equivalent for flybys in Jupiter's magnetic equatorial plane. It is concluded that the problem includes the uncertainty in peak flux, which has an immediate linear effect; uncertainty in the spatial distribution of the flux which gives great divergency between the upper-limit model and the nominal model and in the case of protons, may preclude any mission planning in order to make the situation better; and the uncertainty in the energy spectrum both in shape and energy location of the peak, if any, and which has little importance for mission planning if the spectrum is fairly constant.

Barengoltz, J.↗

NASA NTRS1998

On the Numerical Formulation of Parametric Linear Fractional Transformation (LFT) Uncertainty Models for Multivariate Matrix Polynomial Problems

Robust control system analysis and design is based on an uncertainty description, called a linear fractional transformation (LFT), which separates the uncertain (or varying) part of the system from the nominal system. These models are also useful in the design of gain-scheduled control systems based on Linear Parameter Varying (LPV) methods. Low-order LFT models are difficult to form for problems involving nonlinear parameter variations. This paper presents a numerical computational method for constructing and LFT model for a given LPV model. The method is developed for multivariate polynomial problems, and uses simple matrix computations to obtain an exact low-order LFT representation of the given LPV system without the use of model reduction. Although the method is developed for multivariate polynomial problems, multivariate rational problems can also be solved using this method by reformulating the rational problem into a polynomial form.

Belcastro, Christine M.↗

NASA NTRS2004

Reliability Issues in Stirling Radioisotope Power Systems

Stirling power conversion is a potential candidate for use in a Radioisotope Power System (RPS) for space science missions because it offers a multifold increase in the conversion efficiency of heat to electric power and reduced requirement of radioactive material. Reliability of an RPS that utilizes Stirling power conversion technology is important in order to ascertain long term successful performance. Owing to long life time requirement (14 years), it is difficult to perform long-term tests that encompass all the uncertainties involved in the design variables of components and subsystems comprising the RPS. The requirement for uninterrupted performance reliability and related issues are discussed, and some of the critical areas of concern are identified. An overview of the current on-going efforts to understand component life, design variables at the component and system levels, and related sources and nature of uncertainties are also discussed. Current status of the 110 watt Stirling Radioisotope Generator (SRG110) reliability efforts is described. Additionally, an approach showing the use of past experience on other successfully used power systems to develop a reliability plan for the SRG110 design is outlined.

Shah, Ashwin R.↗

NASA NTRS2005

Reliability Issues in Stirling Radioisotope Power Systems

Stirling power conversion is a potential candidate for use in a Radioisotope Power System (RPS) for space science missions because it offers a multifold increase in the conversion efficiency of heat to electric power and reduced requirement of radioactive material. Reliability of an RPS that utilizes Stirling power conversion technology is important in order to ascertain long term successful performance. Owing to long life time requirement (14 years), it is difficult to perform long-term tests that encompass all the uncertainties involved in the design variables of components and subsystems comprising the RPS. The requirement for uninterrupted performance reliability and related issues are discussed, and some of the critical areas of concern are identified. An overview of the current on-going efforts to understand component life, design variables at the component and system levels, and related sources and nature of uncertainties are also discussed. Current status of the 110 watt Stirling Radioisotope Generator (SRG110) reliability efforts is described. Additionally, an approach showing the use of past experience on other successfully used power systems to develop a reliability plan for the SRG110 design is outlined.

Schreiber, Jeffrey↗

NASA NTRS2012

UQTools: The Uncertainty Quantification Toolbox - Introduction and Tutorial

UQTools is the short name for the Uncertainty Quantification Toolbox, a software package designed to efficiently quantify the impact of parametric uncertainty on engineering systems. UQTools is a MATLAB-based software package and was designed to be discipline independent, employing very generic representations of the system models and uncertainty. Specifically, UQTools accepts linear and nonlinear system models and permits arbitrary functional dependencies between the system s measures of interest and the probabilistic or non-probabilistic parametric uncertainty. One of the most significant features incorporated into UQTools is the theoretical development centered on homothetic deformations and their application to set bounding and approximating failure probabilities. Beyond the set bounding technique, UQTools provides a wide range of probabilistic and uncertainty-based tools to solve key problems in science and engineering.

Kenny, Sean P.↗

NASA NTRS1990

NOVA 201 ultrasonic thickness gage (NOVA Gage)

The measurement integrity of the NOVA 201 digital ultrasonic thickness gage (NOVA gage) was demonstrated by comparing the NOVA gage measurements to the thickness gage measurements, and determining the bias and uncertainty of the NOVA gage when measuring redesigned solid rocket motor (RSRM) hardware per engineering test plans (ETP). The NOVA gage was tested by three different operators on steel and aluminum RSRM hardware for wall thickness. The results show that the measurement bias is not consistent. The uncertainty of the bias is caused by the heterogeneous material properties of the RSRM components that influence the time of flight of ultrasonic waves. The measurement uncertainty inherent to the design and operation of the NOVA gage is less in comparison to the uncertainty of the bias. The total measurement uncertainty cannot be substantially reduced by taking more than one measurement. There is no correlation between bias and the surface finish range of this test unless 3-in-One oil is used as a couplant, in which case there appears to be a slight trend. There is no correlation between uncertainty and the surface finish range. The measurement uncertainty of the NOVA gage can be reduced using 3-in-One oil as a couplant.

Garecht, Diane↗

NASA NTRS2004

Performance and Reliability Optimization for Aerospace Systems subject to Uncertainty and Degradation

This report summarizes work performed by the Space Systems Laboratory (SSL) for NASA Langley Research Center in the field of performance optimization for systems subject to uncertainty. The objective of the research is to develop design methods and tools to the aerospace vehicle design process which take into account lifecycle uncertainties. It recognizes that uncertainty between the predictions of integrated models and data collected from the system in its operational environment is unavoidable. Given the presence of uncertainty, the goal of this work is to develop means of identifying critical sources of uncertainty, and to combine these with the analytical tools used with integrated modeling. In this manner, system uncertainty analysis becomes part of the design process, and can motivate redesign. The specific program objectives were: 1. To incorporate uncertainty modeling, propagation and analysis into the integrated (controls, structures, payloads, disturbances, etc.) design process to derive the error bars associated with performance predictions. 2. To apply modern optimization tools to guide in the expenditure of funds in a way that most cost-effectively improves the lifecycle productivity of the system by enhancing the subsystem reliability and redundancy. The results from the second program objective are described. This report describes the work and results for the first objective: uncertainty modeling, propagation, and synthesis with integrated modeling.

Miller, David W.↗

NASA NTRS1972

Incomplete state feedback for systems with parameter uncertainty and random disturbances

A unified design philosophy is presented for limited state feedback control problems with parameter uncertainty for both deterministic and stochastic problems. Two approaches are considered: linear compensator for the deterministic problem with parameter uncertainty, and for the single input-single output system with parameter uncertainty, a model on order equal to that of the system less the number of zeroes. The limitations of these approaches are discussed along with suggestions for further research.

Basuthakur, S.↗