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Search indexed NASA NTRS and DOE OSTI research on propulsion, heat transfer, battery materials and energy systems. Follow report and document links to the original sources.

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At least 343 records · Page 19
All sourcesNASA NTRSDOE OSTI
DOE OSTI2024

The DESI One-Percent Survey: A Concise Model for the Galactic Conformity of Emission-line Galaxies

Galactic conformity is the phenomenon whereby a galaxy of a certain physical property is correlated with its neighbors of the same property, implying a possible causal relationship. Here, the observed auto correlations of emission-line galaxies (ELGs) from the highly complete DESI One-Percent Survey exhibit a strong clustering signal on small scales, providing clear evidence for the conformity effect of ELGs. Building upon the original subhalo abundance-matching (SHAM) method developed by Gao et al., we propose a concise conformity model to improve the ELG–halo connection. In this model, the number of satellite ELGs is boosted by a factor of ~5 in the halos whose central galaxies are ELGs. We show that the mean ELG satellite number in such central halos is still smaller than 1 and that the model does not significantly increase the overall satellite fraction. With this model, we can well recover the ELG auto correlations to the smallest scales explored with the current data (i.e., r p > 0.03 Mpc h –1 in real space and at s > 0.3 Mpc h –1 in redshift space), while the cross correlations between luminous red galaxies and ELGs are nearly unchanged. Although our SHAM model has only eight parameters, we further verify that it can accurately describe the ELG clustering in the entire redshift range from z = 0.8 to 1.6. We therefore expect that this method can be used to generate high-quality ELG lightcone mocks for DESI.

79 ASTRONOMY AND ASTROPHYSICS↗
DOE OSTI2022

Development of advanced machine learning models for analysis of plutonium surrogate optical emission spectra

This work investigates and applies machine learning paradigms seldom seen in analytical spectroscopy for quantification of gallium in cerium matrices via processing of laser-plasma spectra. Ensemble regressions, support vector machine regressions, Gaussian kernel regressions, and artificial neural network techniques are trained and tested on cerium-gallium pellet spectra. A thorough hyperparameter optimization experiment is conducted initially to determine the best design features for each model. The optimized models are evaluated for sensitivity and precision using the limit of detection (LoD) and root mean-squared error of prediction (RMSEP) metrics, respectively. Gaussian kernel regression yields the superlative predictive model with an RMSEP of 0.33% and an LoD of 0.015% for quantification of Ga in a Ce matrix. This study concludes that these machine learning methods could yield robust prediction models for rapid quality control analysis of plutonium alloys.

Rao, Ashwin P. (ORCID:0000000319312568)↗
DOE OSTI2023

Quantification of oil and gas methane emissions in the Delaware and Marcellus basins using a network of continuous tower-based measurements

Abstract. According to the United States Environmental Protection Agency (US EPA), emissions from oil and gas infrastructure contribute 30 % of all anthropogenic methane (CH4) emissions in the US. Studies in the last decade have shown emissions from this sector to be substantially larger than bottom-up assessments, including the EPA inventory, highlighting both the increased importance of methane emissions from the oil and gas sector in terms of their overall climatological impact and the need for independent monitoring of these emissions. In this study we present continuous monitoring of regional methane emissions from two oil and gas basins using tower-based observing networks. Continuous methane measurements were taken at four tower sites in the northeastern Marcellus basin from May 2015 through December 2016 and five tower sites in the Delaware basin in the western Permian from March 2020 through April 2022. These measurements, an atmospheric transport model, and prior emission fields are combined using an atmospheric inversion to estimate monthly methane emissions in the two regions. This study finds the mean overall emission rate from the Delaware basin during the measurement period to be 146–210 Mg CH4 h−1 (energy-normalized loss rate of 1.1 %–1.5 %, gas-normalized rate of 2.5 %–3.5 %). Strong temporal variability in the emissions was present, with the lowest emission rates occurring during the onset of the COVID-19 pandemic. Additionally, a synthetic model–data experiment performed using the Delaware tower network shows that the presence of intermittent sources is not a significant source of uncertainty in monthly quantification of the mean emission rate. In the Marcellus, this study finds the overall mean emission rate to be 19–28 Mg CH4 h−1 (gas-normalized loss rate of 0.30 %–0.45 %), with relative consistency in the emission rate over time. These totals align with aircraft top-down estimates from the same time periods. In both basins, the tower network was able to constrain monthly flux estimates within ±20 % uncertainty in the Delaware and ±24 % uncertainty in the Marcellus. The results from this study demonstrate the ability to monitor emissions continuously and detect changes in the emissions field, even in a basin with relatively low emissions and complex background conditions.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2026

Intrinsic nonlocality of spin- and polarization-resolved probabilities in strong-field quantum electrodynamics

Spin and polarization are central to precision tests of fundamental physics and for interpreting radiation from astrophysical sources and ultraintense laser-matter experiments. Here, focusing on the fundamental process of nonlinear Compton scattering, we demonstrate that a key assumption underlying current strong-field quantum electrodynamics models, i.e., that emission can be treated as an instantaneous random event sampled from a local differential rate, is inconsistent once emission angles, electron spin, and/or photon polarization are resolved. Namely, even in strictly constant and uniform fields , the resulting fully differential distribution is sign indefinite, yielding negative inferred probabilities. The physical reason is that the photon emission probability builds up over a finite length of the electron trajectory, the formation region, during which the electron direction changes by roughly the same small angle that defines the radiation cone. Therefore, we put forward a new method where we integrate over this formation region analytically to obtain a physically consistent electron spin and photon polarization model. We show that the implementation of our model is compatible with existing Monte Carlo and particle-in-cell workflows. Simulations of a GeV-class electron-laser collision accessible at current petawatt facilities and of emission in a pulsarlike magnetic field are shown to reveal spin and polarization patterns that differ even qualitatively from state-of-the-art local models. In particular, our new model predicts substantial angle-dependent circular photon polarization where the well-known collinear-emission approach yields none, and a pronounced helicity bias in the recoiling electrons absent from current predictions. These findings have direct implications for upcoming strong-field QED experiments and for interpreting polarized radiation from extreme astrophysical environments.

astrophysical electromagnetic fields↗
DOE OSTI2024

Time-Resolved X-ray Emission Spectroscopy and Synthetic High-Spin Model Complexes Resolve Ambiguities in Excited-State Assignments of Transition-Metal Chromophores: A Case Study of Fe-Amido Complexes

To fully harness the potential of abundant metal coordination complex photosensitizers, a detailed understanding of the molecular properties that dictate and control the electronic excited-state population dynamics initiated by light absorption is critical. In the absence of detectable luminescence, optical transient absorption (TA) spectroscopy is the most widely employed method for interpreting electron redistribution in such excited states, particularly for those with a charge-transfer character. The assignment of excited-state TA spectral features often relies on spectroelectrochemical measurements, where the transient absorption spectrum generated by a metal-to-ligand charge-transfer (MLCT) electronic excited state, for instance, can be approximated using steady-state spectra generated by electrochemical ligand reduction and metal oxidation and accounting for the loss of absorptions by the electronic ground state. However, the reliability of this approach can be clouded when multiple electronic configurations have similar optical signatures. Using a case study of Fe(II) complexes supported by benzannulated diarylamido ligands, we highlight an example of such an ambiguity and show how time-resolved X-ray emission spectroscopy (XES) measurements can reliably assign excited states from the perspective of the metal, particularly in conjunction with accurate synthetic models of ligand-field electronic excited states, leading to a reinterpretation of the long-lived excited state as a ligand-field metal-centered quintet state. Furthermore, a detailed analysis of the XES data on the long-lived excited state is presented, along with a discussion of the ultrafast dynamics following the photoexcitation of low-spin Fe(II)-N amido complexes using a high-spin ground-state analogue as a spectral model for the 5 T 2 excited state.

14 SOLAR ENERGY↗
DOE OSTI2022

Multi-century dynamics of the climate and carbon cycle under both high and net negative emissions scenarios

Abstract. Future climate projections from Earth system models (ESMs) typically focus on the timescale of this century. We use a set of five ESMs and one Earth system model of intermediate complexity (EMIC) to explore the dynamics of the Earth's climate and carbon cycles under contrasting emissions trajectories beyond this century to the year 2300. The trajectories include a very-high-emissions, unmitigated fossil-fuel-driven scenario, as well as a mitigation scenario that diverges from the first scenario after 2040 and features an “overshoot”, followed by a decrease in atmospheric CO2 concentrations by means of large net negative CO2 emissions. In both scenarios and for all models considered here, the terrestrial system switches from being a net sink to either a neutral state or a net source of carbon, though for different reasons and centered in different geographic regions, depending on both the model and the scenario. The ocean carbon system remains a sink, albeit weakened by carbon cycle feedbacks, in all models under the high-emissions scenario and switches from sink to source in the overshoot scenario. The global mean temperature anomaly is generally proportional to cumulative carbon emissions, with a deviation from proportionality in the overshoot scenario that is governed by the zero emissions commitment. Additionally, 23rd century warming continues after the cessation of carbon emissions in several models in the high-emissions scenario and in one model in the overshoot scenario. While ocean carbon cycle responses qualitatively agree in both globally integrated and zonal mean dynamics in both scenarios, the land models qualitatively disagree in zonal mean dynamics, in the relative roles of vegetation and soil in driving C fluxes, in the response of the sink to CO2, and in the timing of the sink–source transition, particularly in the high-emissions scenario. The lack of agreement among land models on the mechanisms and geographic patterns of carbon cycle feedbacks, alongside the potential for lagged physical climate dynamics to cause warming long after CO2 concentrations have stabilized, points to the possibility of surprises in the climate system beyond the 21st century time horizon, even under relatively mitigated global warming scenarios, which should be taken into consideration when setting global climate policy.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2026

Quantification of trace iodine using laser-induced breakdown spectroscopy for real-time monitoring of nuclear off-gas streams

This study evaluated the potential of laser-induced breakdown spectroscopy (LIBS) for real-time monitoring of trace gas-phase iodine, which is an element of high significance in nuclear applications due to its long radioactive half-life (as iodine-129), volatility, and biological impact. In anticipation of iodine evolving into off-gas systems in molten salt reactor and nuclear fuel recycling applications, this research aimed to assess LIBS performance in flowing argon and helium matrices; optimize measurement parameters using a multichannel spectrometer; and perform calibrations to assess predictive capabilities and limits of detection (LODs). Experimental results successfully measured gas-phase iodine in flowing argon and helium; however, trace iodine was not detected in air. Optimal delay times were determined to be 10 µs for argon and 1 µs for helium, which are consistent with the expected shorter plasma lifetime in helium relative to argon. An emission line survey was provided with the 206.16, 804.37, 902.24, and 905.83 nm peaks, which were identified as the strongest emission peaks. Calibration models were successfully built in both helium and argon, achieving LODs down to 3 ppm in helium and 5 ppm in argon. The iodine emission at 905.83 nm emerged as the most robust for calibration and was subsequently applied to a time series dataset in argon. The predictive trace confirmed the feasibility of employing LIBS for continuous, online quantification of trace iodine in flowing gas systems.

Andrews, Hunter B. [Oak Ridge National Laboratory ↗
DOE OSTI2024

Modeling the Enceladus dust plume based on in situ measurements performed with the Cassini Cosmic Dust Analyzer

We analyzed data recorded by the Cosmic Dust Analyzer on board the Cassini spacecraft during Enceladus dust plume traversals. Our focus was on profiles of relative abundances of grains of different compositional types derived from mass spectra recorded with the Dust Analyzer subsystem during the Cassini flybys E5 and E17. The E5 profile, corresponding to a steep and fast traversal of the plume, has already been analyzed. In this paper, we included a second profile from the E17 flyby involving a nearly horizontal traversal of the south polar terrain at a significantly lower velocity. Additionally, we incorporated dust detection rates from the High Rate Detector subsystem during flybys E7 and E21. We derived grain size ranges in the different observational data sets and used these data to constrain parameters for a new dust plume model. This model was constructed using a mathematical description of dust ejection implemented in the software package DUDI. Further constraints included published velocities of gas ejection, positions of gas and dust jets, and the mass production rate of the plume. Our model employs two different types of sources: diffuse sources of dust ejected with a lower velocity and jets with a faster and more colimated emission. From our model, we derived dust mass production rates for different compositional grain types, amounting to at least 28 kg s –1 . Previously, salt-rich dust was believed to dominate the plume mass based on E5 data alone. The E17 profile shows a dominance of organic-enriched grains over the south polar terrain, a region not well constrained by E5 data. By including both E5 and E17 profiles, we find the salt-rich dust contribution to be at most 1% by mass. This revision also results from an improved understanding of grain masses of various compositional types that implies smaller sizes for salt-rich grains. Our new model can predict grain numbers and masses for future mission detectors during plume traversals.

79 ASTRONOMY AND ASTROPHYSICS↗
DOE OSTI2023

Evaluation of Atmospheric Conditions Leading to a Fumigation Event

During the afternoon of 30 January 2022, the Savannah River Site experienced unusual temperature conditions leading to a fumigation event that triggered safety alarms and caused considerable confusion about the cause of the event. Normally, it is assumed that fumigation events occur early in the day once surface heating has begun. While most fumigation events are related to the breakup of a nocturnal inversion, this event was related to synoptic atmospheric conditions, which provided a more unique scenario that led to the fumigation event. The unusual synoptic atmospheric conditions led to the downwash and fumigation of the elevated plume, causing a pollutant to mix rapidly to the surface. These conditions could have potentially harmed workers within the facility, since the plume was directed toward a building air intake system. Here, we seek to outline the conditions that led to this unusual fumigation event and provide results of two-dimensional (2D) wind modeling of the event to characterize these conditions for future operational guidance of the facility air intake systems. This work sets the groundwork for future high-resolution modeling to explore the mechanisms and thresholds affecting fumigation on the facility-specific short distance scales and improve forecasting of non-standard fumigation events to protect human health.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2023

Testing AGN outflow and accretion models with C IV and He II emission line demographics in z ≈ 2 quasars

Using ≈190 000 spectra from the 17th data release of the Sloan Digital Sky Survey (SDSS), we investigate the ultraviolet emission line properties in z ≈ 2 quasars. Specifically, we quantify how the shape of C IV λ1549 and the equivalent width (EW) of He II λ1640 depend on the black hole mass and Eddington ratio inferred from Mg II λ2800. Above L/L Edd ≳ 0.2, there is a strong mass dependence in both C IV blueshift and He II EW. Large C IV blueshifts are observed only in regions with both high mass and high accretion rate. Including X-ray measurements for a subsample of 5000 objects, we interpret our observations in the context of AGN accretion and outflow mechanisms. The observed trends in He II and 2 keV strength are broadly consistent with theoretical qsosed models of AGN spectral energy distributions (SEDs) for low spin black holes, where the ionizing SED depends on the accretion disc temperature and the strength of the soft excess. High spin models are not consistent with observations, suggesting SDSS quasars at z ≈ 2 may in general have low spins. We find a dramatic switch in behaviour at L/L Edd ≲ 0.1: the ultraviolet emission properties show much weaker trends, and no longer agree with qsosed predictions, hinting at changes in the structure of the broad line region. Overall, the observed emission line trends are generally consistent with predictions for radiation line driving where quasar outflows are governed by the SED, which itself results from the accretion flow and hence depends on both the SMBH mass and accretion rate.

79 ASTRONOMY AND ASTROPHYSICS↗
DOE OSTI2022

Gray-Box Fault Models and Applications for Low-Carbon Emission CO 2 Refrigeration Systems

CO 2 refrigeration systems have attracted more attentions in recent years because of their zero-carbon emission advantages compared with traditional refrigerants. These systems are widely used in certain commercial buildings such as supermarkets. However, very limited energy studies have been done for such refrigeration systems under faults. This study investigated five common faults for supermarket transcritical CO 2 refrigeration systems with display cases. The following major tasks were implemented for this study. (1) Five fault models (gray-box format) regarding the power consumption and supply air temperature were proposed for low- and high-temperature display cases, respectively. The models cover: ice accumulation on evaporator coil, evaporator fan partial failure, expansion valve failure, display door open, and condenser blockage. (2) These fault models were calibrated with field tests, and the modeling accuracies were in good agreement with measurement datasets. (3) The proposed fault models demonstrated more than 90% of fault detection for Fault Detection and Diagnostics (FDD) purposes for both field measurement and simulated data.

32 ENERGY CONSERVATION, CONSUMPTION, AND UTILIZATI↗
DOE OSTI2023

Sensitivity of the Cherenkov Telescope Array to TeV photon emission from the Large Magellanic Cloud

ABSTRACT A deep survey of the Large Magellanic Cloud at ∼0.1–100 TeV photon energies with the Cherenkov Telescope Array is planned. We assess the detection prospects based on a model for the emission of the galaxy, comprising the four known TeV emitters, mock populations of sources, and interstellar emission on galactic scales. We also assess the detectability of 30 Doradus and SN 1987A, and the constraints that can be derived on the nature of dark matter. The survey will allow for fine spectral studies of N 157B, N 132D, LMC P3, and 30 Doradus C, and half a dozen other sources should be revealed, mainly pulsar-powered objects. The remnant from SN 1987A could be detected if it produces cosmic-ray nuclei with a flat power-law spectrum at high energies, or with a steeper index 2.3–2.4 pending a flux increase by a factor of >3–4 over ∼2015–2035. Large-scale interstellar emission remains mostly out of reach of the survey if its >10 GeV spectrum has a soft photon index ∼2.7, but degree-scale 0.1–10 TeV pion-decay emission could be detected if the cosmic-ray spectrum hardens above >100 GeV. The 30 Doradus star-forming region is detectable if acceleration efficiency is on the order of 1−10 per cent of the mechanical luminosity and diffusion is suppressed by two orders of magnitude within <100 pc. Finally, the survey could probe the canonical velocity-averaged cross-section for self-annihilation of weakly interacting massive particles for cuspy Navarro–Frenk–White profiles.

Astronomy & Astrophysics↗
DOE OSTI2024

Multiwavelength study of OT 081: broadband modelling of a transitional blazar

ABSTRACT OT 081 is a well-known, luminous blazar that is remarkably variable in many energy bands. We present the first broadband study of the source, which includes very high energy (VHE, $E\gt $ 100 GeV) $\gamma$-ray data taken by the MAGIC (Major Atmospheric Gamma-ray Imaging Cherenkov telescopes) and H.E.S.S. (High Energy Stereoscopic System) imaging Cherenkov telescopes. The discovery of VHE $\gamma$-ray emission happened during a high state of $\gamma$-ray activity in July 2016, observed by many instruments from radio to VHE $\gamma$-rays. We identify four states of activity of the source, one of which includes VHE $\gamma$-ray emission. Variability in the VHE domain is found on daily time-scales. The intrinsic VHE spectrum can be described by a power law with index $3.27\pm 0.44_{\rm stat}\pm 0.15_{\rm sys}$ (MAGIC) and $3.39\pm 0.58_{\rm stat}\pm 0.64_{\rm sys}$ (H.E.S.S.) in the energy range of 55–300 and 120–500 GeV, respectively. The broadband emission cannot be successfully reproduced by a simple one-zone synchrotron self-Compton model. Instead, an additional external Compton component is required. We test a lepto-hadronic model that reproduces the data set well and a proton-synchrotron-dominated model that requires an extreme proton luminosity. Emission models that are able to successfully represent the data place the emitting region well outside of the broad-line region to a location at which the radiative environment is dominated by the infrared thermal radiation field of the dusty torus. In the scenario described by this flaring activity, the source appears to be a flat spectrum radio quasar (FSRQ), in contrast with past categorizations. This suggests that the source can be considered to be a transitional blazar, intermediate between BL Lac and FSRQ objects.

Abe, H.↗
DOE OSTI2023

Nexus of electrification and energy efficiency retrofit of commercial buildings at the district scale

Rapid electrification of buildings at the district scale is needed for cities to achieve climate change mitigation goals. However, most electrification studies focus on either the single building level or the city/region building stock level, and depend on the slow and uncertain process of requesting personally identifiable customer energy usage data from utilities. To answer a key question facing local policymakers: “Where can electrification proceed at scale without first upgrading the grid?” this study aims to quantify and inform building electrification impacts at the district scale using detailed building energy modeling and based on public records datasets. We explore how energy efficiency retrofits can help mitigate increased peak electric demand, and quantify impacts to energy use and carbon emissions. Building energy models of a baseline, and scenarios of simple electrification, energy retrofits, and electrification in combination with retrofits were created and simulated for 54 commercial buildings in two contiguous districts of San Francisco. A simple electrification scenario increased annual electricity consumption but reduced annual site energy usage by 15% to 17%, mainly due to replacing inefficient gas furnaces and boilers with more efficient heat pumps. Peak demand increased 7.4% for Fisherman's Wharf (e.g. within the capacity of the existing power grid), while the Design District showed a marginal decrease. Annual carbon emissions were reduced by 46% and 37%. Combining electrification with efficiency upgrades reduced peak demand by 26% and 40%, and annual carbon emissions by 63% and 64% for the two districts. Furthermore, these results indicate that impacts of electrification depend on the mix of building uses within a district, and coupling electrification with energy efficiency upgrades is an effective strategy to decarbonize buildings while maintaining or reducing the peak electric demand.

32 ENERGY CONSERVATION, CONSUMPTION, AND UTILIZATI↗
DOE OSTI2023

Upscaling Wetland Methane Emissions From the FLUXNET–CH4 Eddy Covariance Network (UpCH4 v1.0): Model Development, Network Assessment, and Budget Comparison

Wetlands are responsible for 20%–31% of global methane (CH 4 ) emissions and account for a large source of uncertainty in the global CH 4 budget. Data-driven upscaling of CH 4 fluxes from eddy covariance measurements can provide new and independent bottom-up estimates of wetland CH 4 emissions. Here, we develop a six-predictor random forest upscaling model (UpCH4), trained on 119 site-years of eddy covariance CH 4 flux data from 43 freshwater wetland sites in the FLUXNET-CH4 Community Product. Network patterns in site-level annual means and mean seasonal cycles of CH 4 fluxes were reproduced accurately in tundra, boreal, and temperate regions (Nash-Sutcliffe Efficiency ~0.52–0.63 and 0.53). UpCH4 estimated annual global wetland CH 4 emissions of 146 ± 43 TgCH 4 y –1 for 2001–2018 which agrees closely with current bottom-up land surface models (102–181 TgCH 4 y –1 ) and overlaps with top-down atmospheric inversion models (155–200 TgCH 4 y –1 ). However, UpCH4 diverged from both types of models in the spatial pattern and seasonal dynamics of tropical wetland emissions. We conclude that upscaling of eddy covariance CH 4 fluxes has the potential to produce realistic extra-tropical wetland CH 4 emissions estimates which will improve with more flux data. To reduce uncertainty in upscaled estimates, researchers could prioritize new wetland flux sites along humid-to-arid tropical climate gradients, from major rainforest basins (Congo, Amazon, and SE Asia), into monsoon (Bangladesh and India) and savannah regions (African Sahel) and be paired with improved knowledge of wetland extent seasonal dynamics in these regions.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2026

Energy Emissions Accounting Methods Can Determine Whether Direct Air Capture with Storage Achieves Net Removal

The voluntary carbon market within the United States has expanded rapidly in recent years and enabled private companies and other organizations to provide revenue streams to carbon dioxide removal (CDR) technologies. For a CDR technology to participate in the voluntary carbon market (VCM), the emissions associated with constructing and operating the technology must be less than the CO 2 captured from the atmosphere. Assessing the extent to which this is true for direct air capture with storage (DACS), a relatively energy-intensive CDR technology, strongly depends on the accounting method used to assess the emissions intensity of purchased energy. We simulate the hourly weather-dependent operation of sorbent- and solvent-based DACS in California, Louisiana, Texas, and Wyoming, representing a wide range of local weather and electric and natural gas grid compositions. In all cases, the single most important emissions accounting decision is the method used to estimate the emissions intensity of purchased grid electricity, which varies the calculated net removal by −1049% to +108%. All other factors influencing net removal introduce a variation of at most ±14%. No electricity emissions accounting method is universally conservative across all scenarios, and none is objectively more accurate. High-spatiotemporal-resolution, high-quality, publicly available data sets and models for electricity emissions accounting do not currently exist and are urgently needed to enable standardization of emissions accounting methods to more accurately determine the true emissions impacts of DACS and other energy-intensive facilities.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2024

Spectrum and extension of the inverse-Compton emission of the Crab Nebula from a combined Fermi -LAT and H.E.S.S. analysis

The Crab Nebula is a unique laboratory for studying the acceleration of electrons and positrons through their non-thermal radiation. Observations of very-high-energy γ rays from the Crab Nebula have provided important constraints for modelling its broadband emission. We present the first fully self-consistent analysis of the Crab Nebula’s γ-ray emission between 1 GeV and ∼100 TeV, that is, over five orders of magnitude in energy. Using the open-source software package GAMMAPY, we combined 11.4 yr of data from the Fermi Large Area Telescope and 80 h of High Energy Stereoscopic System (H.E.S.S.) data at the event level and provide a measurement of the spatial extension of the nebula and its energy spectrum. We find evidence for a shrinking of the nebula with increasing γ-ray energy. Furthermore, we fitted several phenomenological models to the measured data, finding that none of them can fully describe the spatial extension and the spectral energy distribution at the same time. Especially the extension measured at TeV energies appears too large when compared to the X-ray emission. Our measurements probe the structure of the magnetic field between the pulsar wind termination shock and the dust torus, and we conclude that the magnetic field strength decreases with increasing distance from the pulsar. We complement our study with a careful assessment of systematic uncertainties.

79 ASTRONOMY AND ASTROPHYSICS↗
DOE OSTI2023

Projection of Future Fire Emissions Over the Contiguous US Using Explainable Artificial Intelligence and CMIP6 Models

Abstract Increasing temperature and water cycle changes due to warming climate may increase the frequency and intensity of wildfires. Fire emission projections are useful for informing strategies for adaptation and mitigation of fire impacts on societies and ecosystems. Here, we construct a neural network (NN) model explained by the Shapley Additive explanation to predict fire PM 2.5 emissions change and understand their drivers over the contiguous US (CONUS) in the mid‐21st century under a high greenhouse gas emissions scenario (SSP5‐8.5). Using future meteorology and leaf area index (LAI) simulated by eight global climate models from the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 6, future population density, and present‐day land use and land cover (LULC) as input to the NN model, the total fire PM 2.5 emissions over CONUS are projected to increase by 4%–75% (model spread). Among different regions, fire emissions in the western US are projected to increase more significantly in June‐July‐August than in other seasons and regions, with the median ratios of future to present‐day fire emissions ranging from 1.67 to 2.86. The increases in fire emissions are mainly driven by increasing normalized temperature (23%–29%) and decreasing soil moisture (2%–10%) in the future. When future LULC change is considered, the projected fire emissions further increase by 58%–83% over the western US compared to projections without LULC change because of future increases in vegetation fraction. The results highlight the important role of warmer temperature, decreasing soil moisture, and LULC change in increasing fire emissions in the future.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗