Progressive Hedging for Optimization of Tree Ensembles as Objective Functions
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Ammari, Bashar↗
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Search indexed NASA NTRS and DOE OSTI research on propulsion, heat transfer, battery materials and energy systems. Follow report and document links to the original sources.
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Climate model large ensembles as test beds for applied compound event research
Not Available
Lehner, Flavio (ORCID:0000000346329701)↗
Changes in Four Decades of Near‐CONUS Tropical Cyclones in an Ensemble of 12 km Thermodynamic Global Warming Simulations
We evaluate tropical cyclones (TCs) in a set of thermodynamic global warming (TGW) simulations over the continental United States (CONUS). A 12 km simulation forced by ERA5 provides a 40‐year historical (1980–2019) control. Four complimentary future scenarios are generated using thermodynamic deltas applied to lateral boundary, interior, and surface forcing. We curate a data set of 4,498 6‐hourly TC snapshots in the control and find a corresponding “twin” in each counterfactual, permitting a paired comparison. Warming results in an increase in mean dynamical TC intensity and moisture‐related quantities, with the latter being more pronounced. TC inner cores contract slightly but outer storm size remains unchanged. The frequency with which TCs become more intense is only moderately consistent, with snapshots having increased hazards ranging from 50% to 80% depending on warming level. The fractions of TCs undergoing rapid intensification and weakening both increase across all warming simulations, suggesting elevated short‐term intensity variability.
54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
Enhanced Boundary Layer Height Detection Using Ceilometer, Surface Meteorology, and Radiation Products With a Random Forest Ensemble Method
This study develops and evaluates a Random Forest (RF) model for estimating planetary boundary layer height (PBLH) using 9 years of data from the Atmospheric Radiation Measurement Southern Great Plains (ARM SGP) user facility, with potential application in the NOAA Surface Radiation (SURFRAD) Network. The model integrates ceilometer, surface meteorology, and radiation measurements, and is trained using thermodynamic PBLH estimates derived from radiosondes. This approach aims to bridge gaps between aerosol-based and thermodynamic-based PBLH estimates. The RF model outperformed traditional methods during daytime and better captured transition periods, demonstrating improved accuracy and robustness. At ARM SGP, it showed a substantial reduction in both bias and RMSE, with a bias near zero (−4.9 m) compared with traditional Haar Wavelet (HW) (70.9 m) and Vaisala BL-View software (124.1 m), and an RMSE of 303.2 m, lower than both BL-View (566.9 m) and HW (404.6 m). During daytime hours, RF consistently outperformed both alternatives, maintaining lower bias and RMSE across all periods. At a second evaluation site, RF achieved the lowest overall RMSE (323.7 m), similar to HW (326.4 m) and significantly better than BL-View (738.3 m). However, all models showed reduced accuracy under stable nighttime conditions, limiting the reliability of PBLH estimates. Key predictors for the model included the lifting condensation level height (LCLH), aerosol gradients, and month for seasonal variability. The study underscores the potential of integrating machine learning with multiple data sets such as surface energy and thermodynamic data to advance PBLH estimation.
boundary layer height↗
RCEMIP‐ACI: Aerosol‐Cloud Interactions in a Multimodel Ensemble of Radiative‐Convective Equilibrium Simulations
Aerosol‐cloud interactions are a persistent source of uncertainty in climate research. This study presents findings from a model intercomparison project examining the impact of aerosols on clouds and climate in convection‐permitting radiative‐convective equilibrium (RCE) simulations. Specifically, 11 different modeling teams conducted RCE simulations under varying aerosol concentrations, domain configurations, and sea surface temperatures (SSTs). We analyze the response of domain‐mean cloud and radiative properties to imposed aerosol concentrations across different SSTs. Additionally, we explore the potential impact of aerosols on convective aggregation and large‐scale circulation in large‐domain simulations. The results reveal that the cloud and radiative responses to aerosols vary substantially across models. However, a common trend across models, SSTs, and domain configurations is that increased aerosol loading tends to suppress warm rain formation, enhance cloud water content in the mid‐troposphere, and consequently increase mid‐tropospheric humidity and upper‐tropospheric temperature, thereby impacting static stability. The warming of the upper troposphere can be attributed to reduced lateral entrainment effects due to the higher environmental humidity in the mid‐troposphere. However, models do not agree on aerosol impacts on convective updraft velocity based on the preliminary examination of high‐percentiles of vertical velocity at a single mid‐troposheric layer (500 hPa). In large‐domain simulations, where convection tends to self‐organize, aerosol loading does not consistently influence self‐organization but tends to reduce the intensity of large‐scale circulation forming between convective clusters and dry regions. This reduction in circulation intensity can be explained by the increase in static stability due to the upper tropospheric warming.
54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
Characteristics of a Multi-model Ensemble of Mock-Walker Simulations
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Geosciences↗
Imaging of a van der Waals spin-orbit torque system using spin ensembles in hBN
Recently, optically active spin defects embedded in two-dimensional (2D) van der Waals (vdW) crystals have emerged as a transformative quantum sensing platform to explore cutting-edge materials science. Taking advantage of excellent solid-state integrability, this new class of spin defects can be readily arranged in nanoscale proximity to target materials, showing great promise for realizing in-situ quantum sensing of microscopic spin and charge behaviors in vdW heterostructures. Here we report hexagonal boron nitride-based quantum imaging of field-free deterministic magnetic switching and electric current distributions in an all-vdW spin-orbit torque (SOT) system. By visualizing variations of nanoscale magnetic stray field profile of room-temperature 2D magnet Fe 3 GaTe 2 under different SOT conditions, we show how the magnetic switching evolves from deterministic to stochastic behavior due to the interplay between spin orientations, anisotropy and Joule heating. Micromagnetic simulations rationalize our results well, revealing the role of field-like SOT in inhibiting thermal fluctuation driven stochastic switching and chaotic multi-domain competition. This understanding, which is otherwise difficult to access by conventional transport measurements, offers valuable insights into material design, testing, and performance evaluation of next-generation vdW spintronic devices.
Imaging techniques↗
GARD-LENS: A downscaled large ensemble dataset for understanding future climate and its uncertainties
Not provided.
Science & Technology - Other Topics↗
Cryptate binding energies towards high throughput chelator design: metadynamics ensembles with cluster–continuum solvation
A tiered forcefield/semiempirical/meta-GGA pipeline together with a thermodynamic scheme designed with error cancellation in mind was developed to calculate binding energies of [2.2.2] cryptate complexes of mono- and divalent cations. Stable complexes of Na, K, Rb, Ca, Zn and Pb were generated, revealing consistent cation–N lengths but highly variable cation–O lengths and an amine stacking mechanism potentially augmenting the cation size selectivity. Metadynamics, used for searching the high-dimensional potential energy surface, together with a cluster–continuum model for affordable – yet accurate – solvation modeling, enabled the discovery of more stable geometries than those previously reported. Similar solvation energy curve shapes for lone vs. coordinated ions enabled rapid solvation convergence via the cancellation of errors stemming from finite cluster sizes. In conclusion, an R 2 of 0.850 vs. experimental aqueous binding energies was obtained, validating this scheme as the backbone of a high-throughput workflow for chelator design.
37 INORGANIC, ORGANIC, PHYSICAL, AND ANALYTICAL CH↗
Nature of molybdenum carbide surfaces for catalytic hydrogen dissociation using machine-learned potentials: an ensemble-averaged perspective
Molybdenum carbides with an electronic structure similar to noble metals have gained attention as a promising low-cost catalyst for biomass valorization and the hydrogen evolution reaction. However, our fundamental understanding of the catalyst surface and how different phases of these catalysts behave at varying reaction conditions is limited to ground state density functional theory calculations as ab initio molecular dynamics (AIMD) is computationally prohibitive at relevant length and time scales. Here, in this work, we train a multi-atomic cluster expansion (MACE) machine-learned interatomic potentials (MLIP) to study hydrogen dissociation and dynamics over Mo, δ-MoC, α-Mo 2 C, and β-Mo 2 C surfaces at varying temperatures and hydrogen partial pressures. Our simulations identify unique and different molecular and atomic hydrogen adsorption sites on different surfaces that do not depend on the temperature. At low hydrogen pressures, the surface coverage is monolayer, which transitions to two-layer adsorption at higher pressures. We find that atomic hydrogen diffusion and recombinations are preferred over molybdenum atom hollow sites, while the diffusion over carbon-terminated facets was negligible, signifying particularly strong C–H interactions. In contrast, molecular hydrogen adsorption occurs mostly atop Mo or the bridging sites. At a comparable hydrogen loading, β-Mo 2 C (001) is the most active surface for hydrogen dissociation reaction. This work provides insights into the dynamic nature of the hydrogen dissociation chemistry and the diversity of hydrogen adsorption sites on molybdenum carbides.
08 HYDROGEN↗
Magnetometry in a diamond anvil cell using nitrogen vacancy centers in a nanodiamond ensemble
The emerging field of optical magnetometry utilizing negative-charged nitrogen vacancy (NV – ) centers provides a highly sensitive lab bench technique for spatially resolved physical property measurements. Their implementation in high pressure diamond anvil cell (DAC) environments will become common as other techniques are often limited due to the spatial constraints of the sample chamber. Apparatus and techniques are described here permitting for more general use of magnetic field measurements inside a DAC using continuous wave optical detected magnetic resonance in NV – centers in a layer of nanodiamonds. A microstrip antenna delivers a uniform microwave field to the DAC and is compatible with simple metal gaskets, and the sensor layer of deposited nanodiamonds allows for simple determination of the magnetic field magnitude for B in the 1–100 G range. The ferromagnetic transition in iron at 18 GPa is measured with the apparatus, along with its hysteretic response.
75 CONDENSED MATTER PHYSICS, SUPERCONDUCTIVITY AND↗
Fast calculation of diffraction patterns from an ensemble of aligned molecules
We report an algorithm to calculate electron diffraction patterns for molecules with anisotropic angular distribution, which is significantly faster than existing methods. The algorithm uses a transform to convert the molecular orientation distribution, which is a function of three Euler angles, to the atom-pair distribution functions which depend on the polar and azimuthal angles. The diffraction signal can then be calculated from the atom-pair distributions. We demonstrate the computation method numerically by calculating electron diffraction patterns for a symmetric top molecule (trifluoroiodomethane) and an asymmetric top molecule (formaldehyde) and show that it reduces the calculation time by approximately two orders of magnitude compared to the standard brute-force method. Here, the method can also be applied to the calculation of x-ray diffraction patterns.
74 ATOMIC AND MOLECULAR PHYSICS↗