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At least 343 records · Page 19

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NASA NTRS2017

Coupled Data Assimilation for Integrated Earth System Analysis and Prediction: Goals, Challenges, and Recommendations

The purpose of this report is to identify fundamental issues for coupled data assimilation (CDA), such as gaps in science and limitations in forecasting systems, in order to provide guidance to the World Meteorological Organization (WMO) on how to facilitate more rapid progress internationally. Coupled Earth system modeling provides the opportunity to extend skillful atmospheric forecasts beyond the traditional two-week barrier by extracting skill from low-frequency state components such as the land, ocean, and sea ice. More generally, coupled models are needed to support seamless prediction systems that span timescales from weather, subseasonal to seasonal (S2S), multiyear, and decadal. Therefore, initialization methods are needed for coupled Earth system models, either applied to each individual component (called Weakly Coupled Data Assimilation - WCDA) or applied the coupled Earth system model as a whole (called Strongly Coupled Data Assimilation - SCDA). Using CDA, in which model forecasts and potentially the state estimation are performed jointly, each model domain benefits from observations in other domains either directly using error covariance information known at the time of the analysis (SCDA), or indirectly through flux interactions at the model boundaries (WCDA). Because the non-atmospheric domains are generally under-observed compared to the atmosphere, CDA provides a significant advantage over single-domain analyses. Next, we provide a synopsis of goals, challenges, and recommendations to advance CDA: Goals: (a) Extend predictive skill beyond the current capability of NWP (e.g. as demonstrated by improving forecast skill scores), (b) produce physically consistent initial conditions for coupled numerical prediction systems and reanalyses (including consistent fluxes at the domain interfaces), (c) make best use of existing observations by allowing observations from each domain to influence and improve the full earth system analysis, (d) develop a robust observation-based identification and understanding of mechanisms that determine the variability of weather and climate, (e) identify critical weaknesses in coupled models and the earth observing system, (f) generate full-field estimates of unobserved or sparsely observed variables, (g) improve the estimation of the external forcings causing changes to climate, (h) transition successes from idealized CDA experiments to real-world applications. Challenges: (a) Modeling at the interfaces between interacting components of coupled Earth system models may be inadequate for estimating uncertainty or error covariances between domains, (b) current data assimilation methods may be insufficient to simultaneously analyze domains containing multiple spatiotemporal scales of interest, (c) there is no standardization of observation data or their delivery systems across domains, (d) the size and complexity of many large-scale coupled Earth system models makes it is difficult to accurately represent uncertainty due to model parameters and coupling parameters, (e) model errors lead to local biases that can transfer between the different Earth system components and lead to coupled model biases and long-term model drift, (e) information propagation across model components with different spatiotemporal scales is extremely complicated, and must be improved in current coupled modeling frameworks, (h) there is insufficient knowledge on how to represent evolving errors in non-atmospheric model components (e.g. as sea ice, land and ocean) on the timescales of NWP.

CDA↗

NASA NTRS1972

Study to determine cloud motion from meteorological satellite data

Processing techniques were tested for deducing cloud motion vectors from overlapped portions of pairs of pictures made from meteorological satellites. This was accomplished by programming and testing techniques for estimating pattern motion by means of cross correlation analysis with emphasis placed upon identifying and reducing errors resulting from various factors. Techniques were then selected and incorporated into a cloud motion determination program which included a routine which would select and prepare sample array pairs from the preprocessed test data. The program was then subjected to limited testing with data samples selected from the Nimbus 4 THIR data provided by the 11.5 micron channel.

Clark, B. B.↗

NASA NTRS1972

System identification computational considerations.

System identification methods may be accurately characterized as inverse computational problems. Three approaches to the computational problem are considered. Equation error methods are based on regression analysis techniques. Attention is given to the maximum conditional likelihood estimate and the maximum unconditional likelihood (Bayesian) estimate. Gradient dependent algorithms for solving the minimization problems are discussed, taking into account Gaussian methods, quadratic model methods, and the homogeneous function model method of Jacobson and Oksman. Some advanced methods are also examined.

Bowles, R. L.↗

NASA NTRS1978

Determination of the Solar Energy Microclimate of the United States Using Satellite Data

The determination of total solar energy reaching the ground over the United States using measurements from meteorological satellites as the basic data set is examined. The methods of satellite data processing are described. Uncertainty analysis and comparison of results with well calibrated surface pyranometers are used to estimate the probable error in the satellite-based determination of ground insolation. It is 10 to 15 percent for daily information, and about 5 percent for monthly values. However, the natural space and time variability of insolation is much greater than the uncertainty in the method. The most important aspect of the satellite-based technique is the ability to determine the solar energy reaching the ground over small areas where no other measurements are available. Thus, it complements the widely spaced solar radiation measurement network of ground stations.

Vonderharr, T. H.↗

NASA NTRS1983

A measurement of the (C-12)O/(C-13)O) ratio in the mesosphere of Venus

Measurements of the absorptions in the Venus atmosphere by (C-12)O and (C-13)O in the J = 1-2 microwave, rotational transitions are reported. Radiative transfer models were fitted to the spectra in order to estimate the isotopic ratio (C-12)O/(C-13)O = 185. Based on an extensive error analysis it is suggested that the standard deviation of this value is + or - 69. This result applies to the mesosphere of Venus, i.e., from about 80 to 110 km. Values of the (C-12)O/(C-13)O ratio measured deeper in the Venus atmosphere are closer to the terrestrial value of 89. Several possible, qualitative mechanisms to explain the higher value of (C-12)O/(C-13)O found for the nightside mesosphere of Venus are offered.

Clancy, R. T.↗

NASA NTRS1985

Real-time flutter identification

The techniques and a FORTRAN 77 MOdal Parameter IDentification (MOPID) computer program developed for identification of the frequencies and damping ratios of multiple flutter modes in real time are documented. Physically meaningful model parameterization was combined with state of the art recursive identification techniques and applied to the problem of real time flutter mode monitoring. The performance of the algorithm in terms of convergence speed and parameter estimation error is demonstrated for several simulated data cases, and the results of actual flight data analysis from two different vehicles are presented. It is indicated that the algorithm is capable of real time monitoring of aircraft flutter characteristics with a high degree of reliability.

Roy, R.↗

NASA NTRS1999

When is Testing Sufficient

The Software Assurance Technology Center (SATC) at NASA Goddard Space Flight Center has been investigating how projects can determine when sufficient testing has been completed. For most projects, schedules are underestimated, and the last phase of the software development, testing, must be decreased. Two questions are frequently asked: "To what extent is the software error-free? " and "How much time and effort is required to detect and remove the remaining errors? " Clearly, neither question can be answered with absolute certainty. Nonetheless, the ability to answer these questions with some acceptable level of confidence is highly desirable. First, knowing the extent to which a product is error-free, we can judge when it is time to terminate testing. Secondly, if errors are judged to be present, we can perform a cost/benefit trade-off analysis to estimate when the software will be ready for use and at what cost. This paper explains the efforts of the SATC to help projects determine what is sufficient testing and when is the most cost-effective time to stop testing.

Rosenberg, Linda H.↗

NASA NTRS2001

Distortion Representation of Forecast Errors for Model Skill Assessment and Objective Analysis

We completed the formulation of the smoothness penalty functional this past quarter. We used a simplified procedure for estimating the statistics of the FCA solution spectral coefficients from the results of the unconstrained, low-truncation FCA (stopping criterion) solutions. During the current reporting period we have completed the calculation of GEOS-2 model-equivalent brightness temperatures for the 6.7 micron and 11 micron window channels used in the GOES imagery for all 10 cases from August 1999. These were simulated using the AER-developed Optimal Spectral Sampling (OSS) model.

Hoffman, Ross N.↗

NASA NTRS2005

Estimation of Cyclic Error Due to Scattering in the Internal OPD Metrology of the Space Interferometry Mission

A common-path laser heterodyne interferometer capable of measuring the internal optical path difference (OPD) with accuracy of the order of 10 pm was demonstrated at JPL. To achieve this accuracy, the relative power received by the detector that is contributed by the scattering of light at the optical surfaces should be less than -97 dB. A method has been developed to estimate the cyclic error caused by the scattering of the optical surfaces. The result of the analysis is presented.

scattering↗

NASA NTRS2005

Estimation of cyclic error due to scattering in the internal OPD metrology of the Space Interferometry Mission

A common-path laser heterodyne interferometer capable of measuring the internal OPD with accuracy of the order of 10 picometers was demonstrated at JPL. To achieve this accuracy, the relative power received by the detector that is contributed by the scattering of light at the optical surfaces should be less than -97 dB. A method has been developed to estimate the cyclic error caused by the scattering of the optical surfaces. The result of the analysis is presented.

Zhao, Feng↗

NASA NTRS1991

An improved error assessment for the GEM-T1 gravitational model

Several tests have been designed to estimate the correct error variances for the GEM-T1 gravitational solution that was derived exclusively from satellite tracking data. The basic method uses both independent and dependent subset data solutions and produces a coefficient-by-coefficient estimate of the model uncertainties. The GEM-T1 errors have been further analyzed using a method based on eigenvalue-eigenvector analysis, which calibrates the entire covariance matrix. Dependent satellite data sets and independent altimetric, resonant satellite, and surface gravity data sets all confirm essentially the same error assessment. The calibration test results yield very stable calibration factors, which vary only by approximately 10 percent over the range of tests performed. Based on these calibrated error estimates, GEM-T1 is a significantly improved solution, which to degree and order 8 is twice as accurate as earlier satellite derived models like GEM-L2. Also, by being complete to degree and order 36, GEM-T1 is more complete and has significantly reduced aliasing effects that were present in previous models.

Lerch, F. J.↗

NASA NTRS2019

Uncertainty of Observation Impact Estimation in an Adjoint Model Investigated with an Observing System Simulation Experiment

Adjoint models are often used to estimate the impact of different observations on short-term forecast skill. A common difficulty with the evaluation of short term forecast quality is the choice of verification fields. The use of self-analysis fields for verification is typical but incestuous, and introduces uncertainty due to biases and errors in the analysis field. In this study, an observing system simulation experiment (OSSE) is used to explore the uncertainty in adjoint model estimations of observation impact. The availability of the true state for verification in the OSSE framework in the form of the Nature Run allows calculation of the observation impact without the uncertainties present in self-analysis verification. These impact estimates are compared to estimates calculated using self-analysis verification. The Global Earth Observing System version 5 (GEOS-5) forecast model with Gridpoint Statistical Interpolation (GSI) is used with the National Aeronautics and Space Administration Global Modeling and Assimilation Office (NASA/GMAO) OSSE capability. The adjoint model includes moist processes, with total wet energy selected as the norm for evaluation of observation impacts. The results show that there are measurable but small discrepancies in the adjoint model estimation of observation impact. In general, observations of temperature and winds tend to have overestimated impacts with self-analysis verification, while observations of humidity and moisture-affected observations tend to have underestimated impacts. The small magnitude of the differences in impact estimates supports the robustness of the adjoint method of estimating observation impacts.

N C Prive↗

NASA NTRS2011

An Empirical State Error Covariance Matrix for Batch State Estimation

State estimation techniques serve effectively to provide mean state estimates. However, the state error covariance matrices provided as part of these techniques suffer from some degree of lack of confidence in their ability to adequately describe the uncertainty in the estimated states. A specific problem with the traditional form of state error covariance matrices is that they represent only a mapping of the assumed observation error characteristics into the state space. Any errors that arise from other sources (environment modeling, precision, etc.) are not directly represented in a traditional, theoretical state error covariance matrix. Consider that an actual observation contains only measurement error and that an estimated observation contains all other errors, known and unknown. It then follows that a measurement residual (the difference between expected and observed measurements) contains all errors for that measurement. Therefore, a direct and appropriate inclusion of the actual measurement residuals in the state error covariance matrix will result in an empirical state error covariance matrix. This empirical state error covariance matrix will fully account for the error in the state estimate. By way of a literal reinterpretation of the equations involved in the weighted least squares estimation algorithm, it is possible to arrive at an appropriate, and formally correct, empirical state error covariance matrix. The first specific step of the method is to use the average form of the weighted measurement residual variance performance index rather than its usual total weighted residual form. Next it is helpful to interpret the solution to the normal equations as the average of a collection of sample vectors drawn from a hypothetical parent population. From here, using a standard statistical analysis approach, it directly follows as to how to determine the standard empirical state error covariance matrix. This matrix will contain the total uncertainty in the state estimate, regardless as to the source of the uncertainty. Also, in its most straight forward form, the technique only requires supplemental calculations to be added to existing batch algorithms. The generation of this direct, empirical form of the state error covariance matrix is independent of the dimensionality of the observations. Mixed degrees of freedom for an observation set are allowed. As is the case with any simple, empirical sample variance problems, the presented approach offers an opportunity (at least in the case of weighted least squares) to investigate confidence interval estimates for the error covariance matrix elements. The diagonal or variance terms of the error covariance matrix have a particularly simple form to associate with either a multiple degree of freedom chi-square distribution (more approximate) or with a gamma distribution (less approximate). The off diagonal or covariance terms of the matrix are less clear in their statistical behavior. However, the off diagonal covariance matrix elements still lend themselves to standard confidence interval error analysis. The distributional forms associated with the off diagonal terms are more varied and, perhaps, more approximate than those associated with the diagonal terms. Using a simple weighted least squares sample problem, results obtained through use of the proposed technique are presented. The example consists of a simple, two observer, triangulation problem with range only measurements. Variations of this problem reflect an ideal case (perfect knowledge of the range errors) and a mismodeled case (incorrect knowledge of the range errors).

Frisbee, Joseph H., Jr.↗

NASA NTRS1998

The Error Distribution of BATSE GRB Location

We develop empirical probability models for BATSE GRB location errors by a Bayesian analysis of the separations between BATSE GRB locations and locations obtained with the InterPlanetary Network (IPN). Models are compared and their parameters estimated using 394 GRBs with single IPN annuli and 20 GRBs with intersecting IPN annuli. Most of the analysis is for the 4B (rev) BATSE catalog; earlier catalogs are also analyzed. The simplest model that provides a good representation of the error distribution has 78% of the locations in a 'core' term with a systematic error of 1.85 degrees and the remainder in an extended tail with a systematic error of 5.36 degrees, implying a 68% confidence region for bursts with negligible statistical errors of 2.3 degrees. There is some evidence for a more complicated model in which the error distribution depends on the BATSE datatype that was used to obtain the location. Bright bursts are typically located using the CONT datatype, and according to the more complicated model, the 68% confidence region for CONT-located bursts with negligible statistical errors is 2.0 degrees.

Briggs, Michael S.↗

NASA NTRS2004

Adjoint Algorithm for CAD-Based Shape Optimization Using a Cartesian Method

Adjoint solutions of the governing flow equations are becoming increasingly important for the development of efficient analysis and optimization algorithms. A well-known use of the adjoint method is gradient-based shape optimization. Given an objective function that defines some measure of performance, such as the lift and drag functionals, its gradient is computed at a cost that is essentially independent of the number of design variables (geometric parameters that control the shape). More recently, emerging adjoint applications focus on the analysis problem, where the adjoint solution is used to drive mesh adaptation, as well as to provide estimates of functional error bounds and corrections. The attractive feature of this approach is that the mesh-adaptation procedure targets a specific functional, thereby localizing the mesh refinement and reducing computational cost. Our focus is on the development of adjoint-based optimization techniques for a Cartesian method with embedded boundaries.12 In contrast t o implementations on structured and unstructured grids, Cartesian methods decouple the surface discretization from the volume mesh. This feature makes Cartesian methods well suited for the automated analysis of complex geometry problems, and consequently a promising approach to aerodynamic optimization. Melvin et developed an adjoint formulation for the TRANAIR code, which is based on the full-potential equation with viscous corrections. More recently, Dadone and Grossman presented an adjoint formulation for the Euler equations. In both approaches, a boundary condition is introduced to approximate the effects of the evolving surface shape that results in accurate gradient computation. Central to automated shape optimization algorithms is the issue of geometry modeling and control. The need to optimize complex, "real-life" geometry provides a strong incentive for the use of parametric-CAD systems within the optimization procedure. In previous work, we presented an effective optimization framework that incorporates a direct-CAD interface. In this work, we enhance the capabilities of this framework with efficient gradient computations using the discrete adjoint method. We present details of the adjoint numerical implementation, which reuses the domain decomposition, multigrid, and time-marching schemes of the flow solver. Furthermore, we explain and demonstrate the use of CAD in conjunction with the Cartesian adjoint approach. The final paper will contain a number of complex geometry, industrially relevant examples with many design variables to demonstrate the effectiveness of the adjoint method on Cartesian meshes.

Nemec, Marian↗

NASA NTRS1994

Integrated Tail Buffet Loads on the F/A-18

The unsteady pressures acting on the vertical tails of a full-scale F/A-18 fighter aircraft were studied to gain a better understanding of tail-buffet loads that frequently occur on fighter aircraft operating at high angles-of-attack. Data for the study were acquired during two test entries in the 80- by 120-Foot Wind Tunnel wherein the aircraft was tested at wind speeds up to 100 knots and at angles-of-attack from 20deg to 40deg. For the purposes of this paper, the primary difference between the two tests is that, during the first wind-tunnel entry, the pressure transducers were more sparsely spaced and covered less of the fin than during the second entry. In addition to a brief description of the spectral analysis methods used for the unsteady aerodynamic pressures and loads, an analysis of the effects of sensor density on estimating integrated loads is presented. It was found that the integrated loads determined from sparse sensor arrays are significantly higher than actual loads. However, a modest increase in the number of sensors can greatly reduce the error and a method for correcting load estimates from sparse sensor arrays is also suggested. The results for the time-averaged, power-spectral analysis are then presented for the tail-fin bending moments. Power spectra are presented for the aircraft at zero sideslip over an angle-of-attack range from 20deg to 40deg and for the aircraft at an angle-of-attack of 30deg over a sideslip range from -16deg to 16deg. Since the aircraft was equipped with a removable leading-edge extension (LEX) fence to reduce tail-buffet loads, the tail-fin bending moment loads are also presented for that configuration. The LEX fence is shown to significantly reduce bending moment loads over a broad range frequencies, for all the aircraft attitudes presented.

Meyn, Larry A.↗

NASA NTRS1983

Error analysis for a reduced-order discrete adaptive observer

The Kreisselmeier discrete adaptive observer is analyzed for the case in which the observer order is less than that of the plant. The state and parameter estimates from the observer are compared to the states and parameters for an arbitrary reduced-order model (ROM) of the plant, where the observer and ROM are of equal dimension. Conditions sufficient for ultimate boundedness of the observation errors are given, and expressions for the error bounds are derived.

Lilly, J. H.↗

NASA NTRS1996

Investigation of Adaptive-threshold Approaches for Determining Area-Time Integrals from Satellite Infrared Data to Estimate Convective Rain Volumes

The principal goal of this project is to establish relationships that would allow application of area-time integral (ATI) calculations based upon satellite data to estimate rainfall volumes. The research is being carried out as a collaborative effort between the two participating organizations, with the satellite data analysis to determine values for the ATIs being done primarily by the STC-METSAT scientists and the associated radar data analysis to determine the 'ground-truth' rainfall estimates being done primarily at the South Dakota School of Mines and Technology (SDSM&T). Synthesis of the two separate kinds of data and investigation of the resulting rainfall-versus-ATI relationships is then carried out jointly. The research has been pursued using two different approaches, which for convenience can be designated as the 'fixed-threshold approach' and the 'adaptive-threshold approach'. In the former, an attempt is made to determine a single temperature threshold in the satellite infrared data that would yield ATI values for identifiable cloud clusters which are closely related to the corresponding rainfall amounts as determined by radar. Work on the second, or 'adaptive-threshold', approach for determining the satellite ATI values has explored two avenues: (1) attempt involved choosing IR thresholds to match the satellite ATI values with ones separately calculated from the radar data on a case basis; and (2) an attempt involved a striaghtforward screening analysis to determine the (fixed) offset that would lead to the strongest correlation and lowest standard error of estimate in the relationship between the satellite ATI values and the corresponding rainfall volumes.

Smith, Paul L.↗