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At least 343 records · Page 19

Rye as an Energy Cover Crop: Management, Forage Quality, and Revenue Opportunities for Feed and Bioenergy

Harvesting a winter rye energy cover crop (Secale cereale L.) could help sustain growing food and energy demand, provide new revenue streams, and enhance ecosystem services without inducing land-use change. A two-year field experiment with three planting methods and three N fertilization rates (0, 60, and 120 kg N ha -1 ) that produced >5.0 Mg ha -1 yr -1 of biomass was evaluated for (1) fresh and anaerobically digested rye forage quality; (2) revenue potential from renewable bioenergy, carbon markets, and digestate feed protein; and (3) potential greenhouse gas (GHG) offsets. We showed that rye can be harvested as forage for animals or anaerobically digested to produce renewable natural gas (RNG), with the residue after digestion (digestate) still available as a feed protein concentrate. Anaerobically digesting rye improved forage quality indicators. Digestion significantly decreased acid- and neutral-detergent fiber (ADF and NDF) by 5.2% and 17.8%, respectively, while significantly increasing crude protein (CP) (33.6%), total digestible nutrients (TDN) (2.0%), relative feed value (RFV) (23.6%), net energy for lactation (8.3%), maintenance (7.5%), and gain (20.0%). Using market prices for RNG, high protein feed, and GHG mitigation, potential on-farm revenue ranged from USD 307 Mg -1 and USD 502 Mg -1 dry matter with an average of USD 402 Mg -1 . However, there are substantial costs associated with RNG and the revenue potential does not represent the profitability of this system. Evaluation of the integrated system showed GHG emissions associated with rye fertilization were more than offset by the benefits of increasing yield in the 60 kg N ha -1 treatment. The overall carbon footprint of the integrated system was strongly carbon negative, confirming the potential of this strategy to sustainably intensify land use in the Midwestern United States.

09 BIOMASS FUELS↗

Chemical restrictions of roots in Ultisol subsoils lessened by long-term management

Exchangeable Al in subsoils of Ultisols in the southeastern USA can restrict rooting depth. Downward movement of basic cations (Ca, Mg, and K), applied as lime and fertilizer, may diminish that restriction over time. Materials from the argillic horizon were collected from three paired sites, having managed (long-term cropping) and nonmanaged topsoils (Typic Paleudults and Hapludults). One managed site was cropped continuously for 15 yr while the others were cultivated for more than 30 yr. Concentrations of extractable cations and other nutrients from the paired sites were compared to determine the magnitude of change due to management. The ability of the subsoils to support plant growth was evaluated in a missing-nutrient greenhouse experiment with sorghum [Sorghum bicolor (L.) Moench]. Subsoils of managed sites had greater effective cation-exchange capacity (CEC) and base saturation than those of non-managed sites. While availabilities of Ca, Mg, and K in subsoils of nonmanaged sites were inadequate to support maximal plant growth, they were adequate in subsoils of managed sites. Compared with nonmanaged sites, KCl-exchangeable Al in subsoils of managed sites was 23% lower at the 15-yr location and 65 and 100% lower at the two other locations. In the absence of lime, sorghum growth was almost totally inhibited on nonmanaged subsoils amended with optimum nutrients. On the managed subsoils, where 100, 65, and 23% of the nonmanaged exchangeable Al had been neutralized by topsoil fertilization and liming, growth reductions under the same conditions were 0, 50, and 100%, respectively. Thus, relatively long-term management had improved these Ultisol subsoils for root growth and development.

NASA Discipline Life Support Systems↗

Significant Atmospheric Aerosol Pollution Caused by World Food Cultivation

Particulate matter is a major concern for public health, causing cancer and cardiopulmonary mortality. Therefore, governments in most industrialized countries monitor and set limits for particulate matter. To assist policy makers, it is important to connect the chemical composition and severity of particulate pollution to its sources. Here we show how agricultural practices, livestock production, and the use of nitrogen fertilizers impact near-surface air quality. In many densely populated areas, aerosols formed from gases that are released by fertilizer application and animal husbandry dominate over the combined contributions from all other anthropogenic pollution. Here we test reduction scenarios of combustion-based and agricultural emissions that could lower air pollution. For a future scenario, we find opposite trends, decreasing nitrate aerosol formation near the surface while total tropospheric loads increase. This suggests that food production could be increased to match the growing global population without sacrificing air quality if combustion emission is decreased.

public health↗

Challenges and opportunities for enhancing food security and greenhouse gas mitigation in smallholder farming in sub-Saharan Africa. A review

Smallholder farmers struggle to achieve food security in many countries of sub-Saharan Africa (SSA). It is urgently required to find appropriate practices for enhancing crop production while avoiding large increases in greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions in SSA. This review aims to identify common smallholder farming practices for enhancing crop production, to assess how these affect GHG emissions and to identify strategies that not only enhance crop production but also mitigate GHG emissions in SSA. To increase crop production and ensure food security, smallholder farmers usually expand agricultural land, develop water harvesting and irrigation techniques and increase cropping intensity and fertilizer use. These practices may result in changing carbon stocks and GHG emissions, potentially creating trade-offs between food security and GHG mitigation. Agricultural land expansion at the expense of forests is the most dominant source of GHG emissions in SSA. While water harvesting and irrigation can increase soil organic carbon, they can trigger GHG emissions. Increasing cropping intensity can enhance the decomposition of soil organic matter, thus releasing carbon dioxide. Increasing nitrogen fertilizer use can enhance soil organic carbon, but also leads to increasing nitrous oxide emissions. An integrated land, water and nutrient management strategy is necessary to enhance crop production and mitigate GHG emissions. Among the most relevant strategies found, agroforestry practices in degraded and marginal lands could replace expanding agricultural croplands. In addition, water management, via adequate rainwater harvesting and irrigation techniques, together with appropriate nutrient management should be considered. Therefore, a land-water-nutrient nexus (LWNN) approach will enable an integrated and sustainable solution to increasing crop production and mitigating GHG emissions. Various technical, economic and policy barriers hinder implementing the LWNN approach on the ground, but these may be overcome through developing appropriate technologies, disseminating them through farmer to farmer approaches and developing specific policies to address smallholder land tenure issues and motivate long-term investment.

Sub-Sahara Africa↗

Irrigation, carbon amelioration, nitrogen, and stover removal effects on continuous corn

Corn (Zea mays L.) residue or stover is harvested as supplemental feed for livestock and is a potential feedstock for cellulosic biofuels. Limited information is available on corn stover removal effects on grain yield under different irrigation rates, nitrogen (N) fertilizer rates, and practices to maintain soil carbon (C) and minimize soil erosion. Here, we evaluated potential interactions between irrigation rate (full or limited), C amelioration practices (cover crop, surface-applied manure, or no amelioration practice), fertilizer N management (125 or 200 kg N ha –1 ), and stover removal (residue removal or no residue removal), on no-till continuous corn grain yield located on a silt loam soil in south-central Nebraska (2011–2018). Stover removal increased (P = .0017) grain yield by 1.02 Mg ha –1 and grain N uptake compared with no stover removal. Manure increased corn grain yield by 899 kg ha –1 compared to either the control or cover crop with stover removal while C amelioration practices did not affect grain yield under stover retention. Grain N concentration was higher (P < .0001) with stover removal (13.2 g kg –1 ) than residue retained (12.7 g kg –1 ). Partial factor productivity (grain yield/N rate) was highest for manure treatments with residue removal. The farmgate N balance (N applied – N removed) from stover removal was negative, yet grain yield was not affected after eight growing seasons. Grain yield increased with stover removal and manure application resulting in a cost-effective C amelioration practice whereas incorporating a winter cover crop resulted in similar grain yield as the control.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

Retrospective analysis of the U.S. corn ethanol industry for 2005–2019: implications for greenhouse gas emission reductions

Since 2000, corn ethanol production in the USA has increased significantly – from 1.6 to 15 billion gallons (6.1 to 57 billion liters) – due to supportive biofuel policies. In this study, we conduct a retrospective analysis of the changes in US corn ethanol greenhouse gas emission intensity, sometimes known as carbon intensity (CI), over the 15 years from 2005 to 2019. Our analysis shows a significant decrease in CI: from 58 to 45 gCO 2 e/MJ of corn ethanol (a 23% reduction). This is due to several factors. Corn grain yield has increased continuously, reaching 168 bushels/acre (10.5 metric tons/ha, a 15% increase) while fertilizer inputs per acre have remained constant, resulting in decreased intensities of fertilizer inputs (e.g., 7% and 18% reduction in nitrogen and potash use per bushel of corn grain harvested, respectively). A 6.5% increase in ethanol yield, from 2.70 to 2.86 gal/bushel corn (0.402 to 0.427 L kg -1 corn), and a 24% reduction in ethanol plant energy use, from 32 000 to 25 000 Btu/gal ethanol (9.0 to 6.9 MJ L -1 ethanol) also helped reduce the CI. The total GHG emission reduction benefits through the reduction in the CI and increased ethanol production volume are estimated at 140 million metric tons (MMT) from 2005 to 2019 in the ethanol industry. Displacement of petroleum gasoline by corn ethanol in the transportation fuel market resulted in a total GHG emission reduction benefit of 544 MMT CO 2 e during the period 2005 to 2019.

09 BIOMASS FUELS↗

Impact of landscape design on the greenhouse gas emissions of shrub willow bioenergy buffers in a US Midwest corn-production landscape

Previous studies have evaluated the economics and ecosystem services of perennial bioenergy crops when replacing grain crops on marginal (environmentally critical and/or underproductive) lands. This study used life-cycle analysis (LCA) to investigate the greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions of perennial crops when grown in targeted landscape positions and their impact in reducing nitrogen leaching. Specifically, LCA was performed to evaluate the GHG emissions of growing shrub willow on marginal lands in the Indian Creek watershed in Illinois to assess the sustainability of strategically planted willow buffer strips. Willow was grown as a short-rotation woody crop with a 21-year rotation under three scenarios including a business-as-usual (BAU) field-scale production with nitrogen fertilizer application and two unfertilized subfield buffer scenarios – landscape single subfield (LSSF) or landscape multiple subfields (LMSF) – grown alongside cornfields to reduce nitrate leaching. Each scenario also considers three field sizes, 2.0, 10.1, and 40.5 ha. The average annual GHG emissions from willow production and depot transportation were 0.32–0.77 Mg-CO 2 e ha-1 with the lowest emissions for the LSSF scenario and highest for the BAU. The GHG emissions for the LSSF and BAU scenarios are independent of field size, whereas LMSF emissions increase with increasing field size, 0.41 Mg-CO 2 e ha-1 at 2.0 ha and 0.76 Mg-CO 2 e ha-1 at 40.5 ha. Emission results were most sensitive to the willow yield, followed by fertilizer application rate (BAU only), harvest fuel consumption, and transportation distance.

09 BIOMASS FUELS↗

Field–scale evaluation of ecosystem service benefits of bioenergy switchgrass

Purpose-grown perennial herbaceous species are nonfood crops specifically cultivated for bioenergy production and have the potential to secure bioenergy feedstock resources while enhancing ecosystem services. This study assessed soil greenhouse gas emissions (CO 2 and N 2 O), nitrate (NO 3 -N) leaching reduction potential, evapotranspiration (ET), and water-use efficiency (WUE) of bioenergy switchgrass (Panicum virgatum L.) in comparison to corn (Zea mays L.). The study was conducted on field-scale plots in Urbana, IL, during the 2020–2022 growing seasons. Switchgrass was established in 2020 and urea-fertilized at 56 kg N ha –1 year –1 . Corn management followed best management practices for the US Midwest, including no-till and 202 kg N ha –1 year –1 fertilization, applied as urea–ammonium nitrate (32%). Our results showed lower direct N 2 O emissions in switchgrass compared to corn. Although soil CO 2 emissions did not differ significantly during the establishment year, emissions in subsequent years were over 50% higher in switchgrass than in corn, likely due to increased belowground biomass, which was over five times higher in switchgrass. Nitrate-N leaching decreased as the switchgrass stand matured, reaching 80% lower than in corn by the third year. Differences in ET and WUE between corn and switchgrass were not significant; however, results indicate a trend toward reduced WUE in switchgrass under drought, driven by lower aboveground biomass production. Our study demonstrates that switchgrass can be implemented at a commercial scale without negatively impacting the hydrological cycle, while potentially reducing N losses through nitrate-N leaching and soil N 2 O emissions, and enhancing belowground C storage.

09 BIOMASS FUELS↗

Genetic variation in nitrogen‐use efficiency and its associated traits in dryland winter wheat ( Triticum aestivum L.) cultivars released from the 1940s to the 2010s in Shaanxi Province, China

Abstract BACKGROUND Improving the nitrogen‐use efficiency (NUE) of wheat can help mitigate the problems of poor soil fertility under dryland conditions. We conducted field experiments using three nitrogen (N) fertilization levels (0, 120, and 180 kg ha −1 ) applied to eight dryland wheat cultivars to assess NUE and its associated traits. RESULTS The grain yield significantly increased with the improvement in variety, mainly as a result of a substantial increase in 1000‐grain weight and harvest index. Modern wheat varieties have stabilized at an optimal plant height and exhibited improved performance in terms of NUE, partial N productivity, N harvest index, and grain protein content compared to older varieties. The NUE of wheat gradually increased with variety replacement. The net photosynthesis rate of the flag leaves in the filling stage improved with the year of cultivar release; Increasing soil–plant analysis development (SPAD) values of flag leaves in the flowering and filling stages were observed over time, with the flag leaves of modern varieties showing a high chlorophyll content in the filling stage. Additionally, the principal component analysis showed that the SPAD value, grain number per unit area, transpiration rate, leaf area, and grain protein content positively contributed to the clustering of the N180 and modern cultivars (from the 2000s to 2010s). CONCLUSION Overall, high levels of N application did not significantly improve the NUE of wheat. However, modern wheat varieties can optimize N distribution, increase flag leaf photosynthetic capacity, and improve photosynthesis ability, thus enhancing NUE to achieve high yields under a suitable level of N supply. © 2022 Society of Chemical Industry.

Lian, Huida↗

Predicting compatibility between ferredoxins and the Fe protein of nitrogenase using in silico protein modeling

Biological nitrogen fixation is the process by which certain bacteria and archaea use the enzyme nitrogenase to reduce atmospheric nitrogen into bioavailable ammonium. Engineering non‐nitrogen‐fixing organisms, like plants, to use nitrogenase could reduce dependency on synthetic fertilizer and mitigate the environmental impacts of industrial fertilizer production. However, nitrogenase activity requires delivery of reducing power by small electron carrying proteins known as ferredoxins and flavodoxins, and successfully engineering nitrogenase into new systems will require a mechanistic understanding of electron delivery by these proteins. Most organisms often have multiple ferredoxins, raising the question of which ferredoxin can support nitrogenase activity. The purpose of this study is to gain insight into how we can predict which ferredoxin is compatible with the Fe protein, the component of nitrogenase that interacts with ferredoxin or flavodoxin. Our in silico protein–protein docking simulations reveal that most ferredoxins and flavodoxins involved in nitrogen fixation have the shortest distance (≤10 Å) between their redox cofactor and the [4Fe‐4S] cluster of the Fe protein. We found shorter cofactor distance contributes to faster intermolecular electron tunneling rates. Bacterial ferredoxins that play a role in nitrogen fixation also exhibit more complementary interactions with the Fe protein than bacterial and plant ferredoxins not involved in this process. Heterologous expression of a set of ferredoxins from both nitrogen‐fixing and non‐nitrogen‐fixing bacteria in the diazotroph Rhodopseudomonas palustris supports our model‐derived prediction that shorter distances between the electron‐carrying cofactors favor nitrogenase compatibility. These findings offer a framework to predict and potentially enhance ferredoxin–nitrogenase compatibility, which will help to improve our ability to engineer nitrogen fixation into non‐nitrogen‐fixing organisms like plants.

59 BASIC BIOLOGICAL SCIENCES↗

Manganese sources and rates impact plant Mn concentrations and soil Mn fractions

Manganese (Mn) is an essential micronutrient for all organisms. In plants, Mn plays a critical role in photosynthesis and as a structural component of enzymes. In soils, Mn exists as different fractions of varying availability to plants. Mn fertilizers can be used to increase Mn availability to plants but are easily converted from a plant-available fraction (exchangeable Mn) to an unavailable fraction (Mn-oxides). Little research has been done in agricultural settings on soil Mn fractions; thus, the objective of this experiment was to study the effect of Mn additions on soil Mn fractions and plant Mn concentration. Here, a greenhouse experiment was conducted by growing soybean (Glycine max) treated with three Mn application rates (recommended or 1×, 10×, and 50×) of two sources (MnSO 4 and Mn ethylenediamine tetraacetic acid [MnEDTA]). Soil Mn fractions (Mehlich-1 extractable, exchangeable, organic-bound, Mn-oxide, residual) were quantified via sequential Mn extraction procedures. Bioavailability was evaluated by measuring soybean leaf Mn concentrations. Both fertilizer types increased available soil Mn fractions. Leaf Mn concentration increased with MnSO 4 50× application at the V3 stage and decreased with MnEDTA addition at the V3 and R2 stages. Mn additions likely resulted in the conversion of Mn into unavailable fractions. This was amplified by higher application rates, where total Mn increased by 18.5%, but available Mn decreased by 4.3% relative to initial soil values. Thus, our study showed that adding Mn to soils does not necessarily increase plant-available Mn.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

Wastewater reuse benefits for municipal complete retention lagoons: Life cycle assessment and dynamic modeling

Complete retention lagoons with wastewater reuse for agricultural purposes may offer sustainability advantages over alternative systems for small communities in semiarid regions. This study quantifies the environmental life cycle impact of adopting agriculture water reuse systems using case study data to estimate operating and building infrastructure impacts and spatial–temporal modeling to quantify resource trade-offs. Water reuse system benefits are highly dependent on supply–storage–demand dynamics. The relative size of irrigated agricultural land to the lagoon size was the most significant factor influencing site water application rates. The benefits are sensitive to changes in air emissions occurring from the agricultural land and further emphasize the importance of proper fertilizer management when adopting water reuse systems. Wastewater reuse from complete retention lagoons reduce life cycle GHG emissions, primarily through excavation reductions, offset fertilizer use, and especially from increased crop yields from wastewater reuse at previously rainfed sites.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

Rapid denitrification of nitrate-contaminated groundwater in a low-gradient blackwater stream valley

Leaching of excess nitrogen (N) to groundwater in fertilized landscapes can overwhelm natural biogeochemical processes and cause long-term eutrophication of aquatic systems. We investigated N fate and transport from an intensively managed short-rotation woody crop (Pinus taeda) plantation through the riparian zone of an intermittent, low-gradient blackwater stream. Fertilization of the P. taeda plantation on the uplands resulted in contamination of groundwater with nitrate concentrations between 0.9 and 1.9 mg N L -1 . No corresponding increase in nitrate was observed in stream water or shallow groundwater in the riparian zone. Groundwater travel-time modeling predicted that N from near-stream, upland plantation areas should have reached streams during the monitoring period. Two years of measuring N species in well water in contrasting landscape positions (within the plantation, swale, riparian edge, forested hillslope, and valley), indicated rapid nitrate transformation and denitrification within the forested wetland valleys. Denitrification in the shallow groundwater system within the toeslopes and the riparian zone was estimated to have removed > 90% of nitrate. Finally, these results highlight the importance of riparian zones as pathways for the removal of N and for controlling downstream N loads.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

Ectomycorrhizal fungal diversity interacts with soil nutrients to predict plant growth despite weak plant-soil feedbacks

Background and aims Plant-soil feedbacks are the result of multiple abiotic and biotic mechanisms. However, few studies have addressed how feedbacks vary based on abiotic context or attempted to identify microbiota responsible for feedbacks. In this work, we investigated whether plant-soil feedbacks of an ectomycorrhizal tree (Quercus macrocarpa) varied based on soil nutrient status and whether fungal community composition and diversity could explain feedback patterns. Furthermore, we inoculated Q. macrocarpa seedlings with field-sampled soils taken from five soil origins – including heterospecific and conspecific trees and an old field – which were profiled using fungal DNA metabarcoding.Results Despite finding that soils associated with different hosts harbored distinct fungal communities and that fungal communities were predictive of plant growth, we did not find any significant plant-soil feedbacks regardless of fertilization status. We did find that the growth promotive effect associated with ectomycorrhizal OTU diversity was weakened with fertilization, suggesting context-dependent relations between plant growth and a guild of fungal mutualists. Our results demonstrate that the host-specific accumulation of functionally important soil microbes is not always sufficient to drive observable plant-soil feedbacks. Our data provide support for a role for ECM fungal diversity in mediating plant growth responses, though it is unclear whether this effect is direct or indirect.

59 BASIC BIOLOGICAL SCIENCES↗

Root phenotypes for improved nitrogen capture

Abstract Background Suboptimal nitrogen availability is a primary constraint for crop production in low-input agroecosystems, while nitrogen fertilization is a primary contributor to the energy, economic, and environmental costs of crop production in high-input agroecosystems. In this article we consider avenues to develop crops with improved nitrogen capture and reduced requirement for nitrogen fertilizer. Scope Intraspecific variation for an array of root phenotypes has been associated with improved nitrogen capture in cereal crops, including architectural phenotypes that colocalize root foraging with nitrogen availability in the soil; anatomical phenotypes that reduce the metabolic costs of soil exploration, improve penetration of hard soil, and exploit the rhizosphere; subcellular phenotypes that reduce the nitrogen requirement of plant tissue; molecular phenotypes exhibiting optimized nitrate uptake kinetics; and rhizosphere phenotypes that optimize associations with the rhizosphere microbiome. For each of these topics we provide examples of root phenotypes which merit attention as potential selection targets for crop improvement. Several cross-cutting issues are addressed including the importance of soil hydrology and impedance, phenotypic plasticity, integrated phenotypes, in silico modeling, and breeding strategies using high throughput phenotyping for co-optimization of multiple phenes. Conclusions Substantial phenotypic variation exists in crop germplasm for an array of root phenotypes that improve nitrogen capture. Although this topic merits greater research attention than it currently receives, we have adequate understanding and tools to develop crops with improved nitrogen capture. Root phenotypes are underutilized yet attractive breeding targets for the development of the nitrogen efficient crops urgently needed in global agriculture.

60 APPLIED LIFE SCIENCES↗

Genetic variation in Zea mays influences microbial nitrification and denitrification in conventional agroecosystems

Nitrogenous fertilizers provide a short-lived benefit to crops in agroecosystems, but stimulate nitrification and denitrification, processes that result in nitrate pollution, N 2 O production, and reduced soil fertility. Recent advances in plant microbiome science suggest that genetic variation in plants can modulate the composition and activity of rhizosphere N-cycling microorganisms. Here we attempted to determine whether genetic variation exists in Zea mays for the ability to influence the rhizosphere nitrifier and denitrifier microbiome under “real-world” conventional agricultural conditions. To capture an extensive amount of genetic diversity within maize we grew and sampled the rhizosphere microbiome of a diversity panel of germplasm that included ex-PVP inbreds (Z. mays ssp. mays), ex-PVP hybrids (Z. mays ssp. mays), and teosinte (Z. mays ssp. mexicana and Z. mays ssp. parviglumis). From these samples, we characterized the microbiome, a suite of microbial genes involved in nitrification and denitrification and carried out N-cycling potential assays. Here we are showing that populations/genotypes of a single species can vary in their ecological interaction with denitrifers and nitrifers. Some hybrid and teosinte genotypes supported microbial communities with lower potential nitrification and potential denitrification activity in the rhizosphere, while inbred genotypes stimulated/did not inhibit these N-cycling activities. These potential differences translated to functional differences in N 2 O fluxes, with teosinte plots producing less GHG than maize plots. Taken together, these results suggest that Zea genetic variation can lead to changes in N-cycling processes that result in N leaching and N 2 O production, and thereby are selectable targets for crop improvement. Understanding the underlying genetic variation contributing to belowground microbiome N-cycling into our conventional agricultural system could be useful for sustainability.

59 BASIC BIOLOGICAL SCIENCES↗

Unveiling the drivers contributing to global wheat yield shocks through quantile regression

Sudden reductions in crop yield (i.e., yield shocks) severely disrupt the food supply, intensify food insecurity, depress farmers' welfare, and worsen a country's economic conditions. Here, we study the spatiotemporal patterns of wheat yield shocks, quantified by the lower quantiles of yield fluctuations, in 86 countries over 30 years. Furthermore, we assess the relationships between shocks and their key ecological and socioeconomic drivers using quantile regression based on statistical (linear quantile mixed model) and machine learning (quantile random forest) models. Using a panel dataset that captures spatiotemporal patterns of yield shocks and possible drivers in 86 countries, we find that the severity of yield shocks has been increasing globally since 1997. Moreover, our cross-validation exercise shows that quantile random forest outperforms the linear quantile regression model. Despite this performance difference, both models consistently reveal that the severity of shocks is associated with higher weather stress, nitrogen fertilizer application rate, and gross domestic product (GDP) per capita (a typical indicator for economic and technological advancement in a country). While the unexpected negative association between more severe wheat yield shocks and higher fertilizer application rate and GDP per capita does not imply a direct causal effect, they indicate that the advancement in wheat production has been primarily on achieving higher yields and less on lowering the possibility and magnitude of sharp yield reductions. Hence, in the context of growing extreme weather stress, there is a critical need to enhance the technology and management practices that mitigate yield shocks to improve the resilience of the world food systems.

60 APPLIED LIFE SCIENCES↗